Recent fertility trends in Suriname

A rapid decline in fertility took place in Suriname between 1962 and 1974, and then stopped. While this sudden stabilization is surprising, it is not unusual. Similar trends have occurred in some Caribbean and Latin American countries. This article analyzes the post-1960 trend in fertility in Suriname and seeks to determine whether the 1962-74 fertility decline resulted from changes in socioeconomic conditions or was caused by the activities of the Suriname Family Planning Association. The measures used are the general fertility rate, the total fertility rate by ethnic group as well as by 5-year age groups, and gross and net reproduction rates by ethnic group. All the measures point to a rapid continuing decline of fertility between 1962 and 1974, followed by a rise. The data suggest that major socioeconomic changes had already been under way for some years, when fertility started to fall in 1962. The Suriname Family Planning Association was not founded until 1968, which implies that the organization did not start the decrease. However, once the organization was founded, it continually expanded its activities and made an obvious contribution to the use of contraceptives that increased significantly in the 1970s. It is concluded that the drop in fertility resulted from the process of modernization along with the rapid increase in the use of contraceptives.     

Recent trends and components of change in fertility in Nepal

The objectives of this article are, first, to provide improved estimates of recent fertility levels and trends in Nepal and, second, to analyse the components of fertility change. The analysis is based on data from Nepal's 1996 and 2001 Demographic and Health Surveys. Total fertility rates (TFR) are derived by the own-children method. They incorporate additional adjustments to compensate for displacement of births, and they are compared with estimates derived by the birth-history method. Fertility is estimated not only for the whole country but also by urban/rural residence and by woman's education. The own-children estimates for the whole country indicate that the TFR declined from 4.96 to 4.69 births per woman between the 3-year period preceding the 1996 survey and the 3-year period preceding the 2001 survey. About three-quarters of the decline stems from reductions in age-specific marital fertility rates and about one-quarter from changes in age-specific proportions currently married. Further decomposition of the decline in marital fertility, as measured by births per currently married woman during the 5-year period before each survey, indicates that almost half of the decline in marital fertility is accounted for by changes in population composition by ecological region, development region, urban/rural residence, education, age at first cohabitation with husband, time elapsed since first cohabitation, number of living children at the start of the 5-year period and media exposure. With these variables controlled, another one-third of the decline is accounted for by increase in the proportion sterilized at the start of the 5-year period before each survey.     

Continuing fertility transitions in a plural society: ethnic trends and differentials in Peninsular Malaysia

Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia has declined continuously from the late 1950s, reaching a total fertility rate of 3735 in 1983. All ethnic groups in Malaysia have contributed to this modern demographic transition but the rate of change has been most rapid for Chinese and Indians, Malay fertility having reached a plateau in the early 1980s. The effect of age structure, marital patterns and marital fertility (by parity) on the fertility declines for each ethnic community are analyzed. There has been a tendency, in each ethnic group, for the age distribution within the group of reproductive-age women to grow younger, reflecting the entry into the younger reproductive ages of the large birth cohorts of the 1950s and early 1960s. The effect of this on crude birth rates is hard to determine, because rising age at marriage and increasing use of contraception meant that fertility was increasingly concentrated in the more central reproductive ages. By the 1990s, the earlier declines in fertility will bring about a decline in the proportion of the total population made up of females in the main reproductive ages. After that point, further declines in fertility will be reflected in a sharper decline in the crude birth rate and hence the rate of population increase. Between 1947 and 1980, the age at marriage changed dramatically for females of all ethnic groups. The transition to higher age at marriage for Chinese was completed earlier, and since 1970 has risen by only a year. For Malays and Indians, the rise began later, proceeded faster and continued right up to 1980 when the medium ages at 1st marriage were Malays 22, Indians 23, Chinese 24 years. In 1980, Malay women on average were marrying 5 years later, and Indian women 6 years later than had their mothers' generation in 1947. The proportion never-married among Malay and Indian women aged 20-24 rose from 1/10 to 1/2 over this period; relatively greater changes are evident at ages 25-29. Other factors are the almost complete shift from parent-arranged to self-arranged marriages. Family size desired has decreased for all groups and the decline in breastfeeding has been offset by the sharp increase in the practice of contraception. Continuation of these trends would lead to replacement-level fertility for Malaysian Chinese and Indians by the year 2000. Malay fertility is likely to continue to decline but at a more moderate pace.     

Ethnic fertility differentials in Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore

Differences in fertility between the three major ethnic groups (Malays, Chinese and Indians) in Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore have existed since before the onset of fertility decline in the late 1950s and remain today, although the relative positions and the actual differences have changed due to the varying rates of decline. By 1987, the Malays experienced the highest fertility and the Chinese the lowest in both countries but in Singapore the Malay fertility was lower than the Chinese fertility in Peninsular Malaysia. The fertility differentials will lead to changes in the ethnic composition in both countries but more so in Peninsular Malaysia.     

Fertility levels, trends and differentials in Kuwait

Data used in this study come from the published reports of the censuses and vital registration systems. The crude birth rate in Kuwait is very high, although an apparent decline seems to have started in the period 1975-80. There are considerable differences between the Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti populations. The former had a relatively stable high rate around 50 until 1975 and then fell to 47 in 1980. The total fertility rate was 6.8 per woman. The rate for the non-Kuwaitis rose in 1965-70 and then fell sharply throughout 1970-1980, from 44 to 30. Non-Kuwaiti fertility is consistently lower than Kuwaiti fertility at all ages, the differences being relatively greater after age 35. The peak ages of fertility are 25-29 years for Kuwaitis and 20-29 years for non-Kuwaitis. For Kuwaitis, there is clear evidence of declining fertility in the younger age groups but not in the older, largely reflecting the trend towards later marriage among the younger Kuwaitis. As expected, there is a diminishing trend in completed family size from the least to the most educated women in both Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti women in all age groups. The illiterate women at marriage are younger than the university educated women by about 5 years. Results further show that women who are economically active have lower fertility than those who are not, both in Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti groups. The differences in each group are significant, as are differences in the fertility level by husband's occupation. High fertility in Kuwait, as well as in other oil-exporting Arab countries, is a result of a variety of factors including the generally pronatalist sentiment of the Arab population, improved health facilities, rising wealth, the youthful age structure, the young age at marriage and the substantial incentives in the different governmental schemes to promote native high fertility and keep a balance between the native and immigrant populations.     

Socioeconomic status and fertility in rural Bangladesh

Using a unique set of birth registration data from the Demographic Surveillance System of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, for the period 1974-77, and socioeconomic information collected in the 1974 census, fertility was studied in relation to occupation, size of dwelling, number of cows and number of boats owned. The total fertility rate was found to vary between 6 and 6.5 except in the famine year of 1975. There was no consistent relationship between fertility and education of women. The age-specific fertility rates by religion show that Muslims had higher fertility at all ages in 1974 and 1977 and at older ages in 1975 and 1976. Overall, however, fertility of Hindus is consistently lower than that of Muslims, but the relative differences are under 10%. Fertility differentials by occupation showed that the household heads who were farm laborers had relatively lower fertility compared to other occupational groups, except for the year 1977 where the families of service holders were found to have relatively lower fertility. Women in households whose heads were businessmen or farmers (owning their land) had above average fertility. In 1974, households in the business occupational groups had, on average, 1 birth more than other households. Women in households with fishermen as heads had below average fertility in 1974 and 1975, but very high fertility in 1976 and 1977. Fertility levels differed according to the type of household in which the family resided. Nuclear families had below average fertility up to the age of 35 and above average fertility at the end of the reproductive age. In the 15-19 age group, augmented families had higher fertility each year examined. The association between dwelling place and fertility is positive each year, the relative differences in fertility between the groups being largest in 1974. Positive relations were found between economic status and fertility.     

Determinants of rural and urban fertility differentials in Nigeria

Whatever proximate variables are examined, their differential effects on rural and urban fertility are small. This indicates that no major disturbance has taken place in urban or rural reproductive norms. However, two possible reasons for the converging pattern of rural and urban fertility in Nigeria are identified. One is that urban mothers in the first half of the childbearing age range have higher fertility than their rural counterparts. The other is that breast-feeding and post-partum abstinence, which are the major determinants of marital fertility, exert a more depressing influence on rural than urban fertility.     

Infant and child mortality in Pakistan--some trends and differentials

Data from reproductive histories collected in the Population, Labor Force and Migration Survey (PLM) of 1979 are used to analyze trends and differentials in infant and child mortality in Pakistan. Comparisons with the Pakistan Fertility Survey (PFS) findings are also presented. The main concern is to provide from the latest national data, the PLM, direct measures of infant and child mortality and to demonstrate the relatively static and low chances of survival for children in Pakistan. The apparent trends from the PLM and the PFS are similar and seem to confirm that infant and childhood mortality has ceased to decline, at least rapidly, since 1965-69. Neonatal mortality is higher at levels of 70-85 deaths/1000 compared to postneonatal mortality of 40-60 deaths/1000. Improvements in neonatal rates from 1950 until 1975 are only approximately 1/2 of those for postneonatal rates for that period. The relationship between maternal age and mortality in the PLM data confirms that children of youngest mothers experienced the highest rates of infant mortality; mortality is again higher for children of oldest mothers aged 35 and above. The pattern of mortality in the 2 surveys is similar except that in the PFS there was little variation among births higher than 5th order. Sex differentials in mortality are very clear in both surveys. Boys have higher chances of dying in the 1st month of life but then the probability of their surviving from age 1 to 5 years is higher, reflecting the behavioral preference for the male sex in this society. The data also demonstrate an almost monotonic decline in infant and child mortality associated with longer birth intervals. Childhood mortality shows a less clear association with preceding birth interval than does infant mortality. While neonatal mortality is much higher in rural than in urban areas, there are negligible differences in the postneonatal rate. The urban-rural differential continues into childhood, reflecting lower health care and nutrition of children in rural areas. The data confirm the importance of parental education, particularly that of mothers, as a contributor to the health and mortality of infants. Mortality between age 1 and 5 years for children of the rural educated group is lower than that for the urban uneducated indicating the strong influence that education of mothers can have in preventing child loss. The combined evidence from the PFS and PLM data stresses the importance of improving health facilities in the rural areas, in aneffort to reduce the differences in mortality by area of residence. The data from both surveys also suggest the need to restrict motherhood to between the ages of 20 and 34, when obstetrical and health risks are minimal, and indicate the definite advantages of increasing the spacing between children.     

Rural-urban differentials in marital fertility in four Muslim populations

An analysis based on data collected as a part of the World Fertility Survey program in 4 Muslim populations Bangladesh, Java, Jordan and Pakistan does not show a consistent pattern in rural-urban differentials in marital fertility. While no significant diiferential in current fertility by place of current residence is noticeable in Bangladesh and Pakistan, urban women in Jordan showed lower fertility than their rural counterparts. Cumulative fertility, when controlled for duration of marriage, was found to be higher in urban than in rural areas of Bangladesh and Pakistan, but no clear pattern emerged in Jordan. In Java, both current and cumulative fertility were higher in urban than in rural areas; urban women who had spent their childhood and were brought up in the urban environment showed, in most instances, higher fertility than the other residence groups. (author's modified     

Effect of nuptiality, contraception and breast-feeding on fertility in Bangladesh

The effects of marriage, contraception, and post-partum lactational infecundability on fertility in Bangladesh are assessed by applying Bongaarts' formula to survey data for the period 1975-1985. Marriage is universal and age at marriage is low. Breastfeeding is prolonged and has a pronounced effect on fertility. The fertility-reducing effect of contraception increased over the period through increased use of modern methods. The total fertility rate (TFR) declined by 24% from 1975 to 1985. This study shows that the 3 major proximate determinants cannot account completely for variation in national fertility levels.     

Socioeconomic and cultural differentials in age at marriage and the effect on fertility in Nepal

Age at marriage is one of the factors that influence the fertility behaviour of women, particularly in a society like Nepal where contraceptive use is low. Socioeconomic and cultural factors, particularly religion and ethnicity, are important variables in determining age at marriage in Nepal. Fertility was negatively related with age at marriage. Marriage duration had a greater influence on fertility than age at marriage, although these were strongly correlated.     

Effect of famine on fertility in a rural area of Bangladesh

Data on household socioeconomic status collected in the 1974 census and registration data on births, deaths, and migrations for the 1974-77 period from the Demographic Surveillance System of the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, were used to investigate the effects of the 1974-75 famine on differential fertility in a rural population of Bangladesh. Occupation of household head was used as a measure of socioeconomic status. Overall, fertility declined by 34% over the 1975-76 period and increased by 17% in 1976-77 from the 1974-75 figure. Significantly lower fertility was observed in 1975-76, irrespective of socioeconomic status, but the lower socioeconomic groups were affected more than the higher groups. Post-famine fertility was significantly higher only in the 2 middle occupation categories. The age-specific fertility rates suggest that the famine affected all age groups. The post-famine fertility was higher than that of 1974-75 in all but those aged below 20. At age 40 and over the recovery was slight. Husband-wife separation showed an increase during the famine and particularly among the lower socioeconomic groups. The males of the lower socioeconomic households migrated to other regions to obtain food for the family, thus affecting frequency of coitus. The decline in fertility may be due to several factors: deferred marriage; increase in divorces and husband-wife separations; high fetal wastage; voluntary fertility control through contraception, abstention, or induced abortion; and infecundability. An indirect measure of marriage rate indicated that fewer couples entered into marriage in 1974-75, particularly in the lower socioeconomic groups. Both the higher and lower socioeconomic groups were affected by the famine but the precise mechanisms were not the same. At this stage, it is not feasible to estimate the contribution of each factor to the fertility decline. The lower socioeconomic groups were more affected by husband-wife separations and deferred marriages; the higher socioeconomic groups were affected by mental stress and anxiety.     

Differentials of fertility between polygynous and monogamous marriages in rural Bangladesh

This paper discusses polygynous marriages in rural Bangladesh, using marital status and birth registration data from the Demographic Surveillance System (DSS) of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, for the period 1975-79. Of all the marriages recorded during this period about 5% were polygynous. To identify the women polygynously married, 1974 census data of the DSS area were used. The difference in age at marriage between the polygynous groom and his subsequent wife was 15 years on average. The socioeconomic indicators studied were education, occupation and area of dwelling space. In general, these indicators between women in monogamous marriages were significantly higher than between the women in polygynous unions. During the period 1976-79, 863 polygynous marriages were recorded (4.9% of all marriages in the study area). Polygynous marriages were found to be less frequent among men with 2ndary and higher levels of education. The highest proportion of polygynous marriages occurred among husbands with no schooling or Koranic education. The general fertility rate of women in monogamous marriages was significantly higher than for women in polygynous marriages, overall and in all age groups except 20-24. During the period 1975-79, the mean number of liveborn children for monogamous women was higher than that of polygynous women.     

A reversal of fertility trends in Singapore

Free access to contraception and effective legislation measures, have resulted in a decline in fertility in Singapore. A new population policy of 'three children or more if you can afford it' was therefore introduced in 1986. This paper discusses the new population policies and measures their effect on fertility in Singapore.