On metapopulations and microrefugia: palaeoecological insights

We highlight the importance of microrefugia in the light of population migration and genetic drift by synthesizing lessons learnt from metapopulation and palaeoecological studies. The concept of microrefugia is considered as a long‐term variant of conventional metapopulations, in which microclimatic stability supersedes gene flow in determining species survival. Not all species can maintain populations in microrefugia. Life history traits such as small body size, the capacity for asexual reproduction, and species with light genetic loads favour survival. Microrefugia will facilitate faster rates of species responses to climate change than envisioned in diffusion models, and potentially provide a means to alleviate the negative effects posed by natural or anthropogenic barriers to migration. Predictive models based on relatively coarse‐grained approaches that ignore microrefugia will lead to overestimates of extinction risk. Microrefugia should be identified and conserved, not for the species they contain, as these are likely to turn over with time, but as an important component of landscape diversity that will provide a safe haven for species not yet identified as at risk.     

MUTATION LOAD AND THE SURVIVAL OF SMALL POPULATIONS

Previous attempts to model the joint action of selection and mutation in finite populations have treated population size as being independent of the mutation load. However, the accumulation of deleterious mutations is expected to cause a gradual reduction in population size. Consequently, in small populations random genetic drift will progressively overpower selection making it easier to fix future mutations. This synergistic interaction, which we refer to as a mutational melt-down, ultimately leads to population extinction. For many conditions, the coefficient of variation of extinction time is less than 0.1, and for species that reproduce by binary fission, the expected extinction time is quite insensitive to population carrying capacity. These results are consistent with observations that many cultures of ciliated protozoans and vertebrate fibroblasts have characteristic extinction times. The model also predicts that clonal lineages are unlikely to survive more than 10⁴ to 10⁵ generations, which is consistent with existing data on parthenogenetic animals. Contrary to the usual view that Muller's ratchet does more damage when selection is weak, we show that the mean extinction time declines as mutations become more deleterious. Although very small sexual populations, such as self-fertilized lines, are subject to mutational meltdowns, recombination effectively eliminates the process when the effective population size exceeds a dozen or so. The concept of the effective mutation load is developed, and several procedures for estimating it are described. It is shown that this load can be reduced substantially when mutational effects are highly variable.     

How does the magnitude of genetic variation affect ecological and reproductive character displacement?

While previous studies on character displacement tended to focus on trait divergence and convergence as a result of long-term evolution, recent studies suggest that character displacement can be a special case of evolutionary rescue, where rapid evolution prevents species extinction by weakening interspecific competition. Here we analyzed a simple model to examine how the magnitude of genetic variation affects evolutionary rescue via ecological and reproductive character displacement that weakens interspecific competition in exploitation of shared resources (i.e., resource competition) and in the mating process caused by incomplete species recognition (i.e., reproductive interference), respectively. We found that slow trait divergence due to small genetic variance results in species extinction in reproductive character displacement but not in ecological character displacement. This is because one species becomes rare in slow character displacement, and this causes deterministic extinction due to minority disadvantage of reproductive interference. On the other hand, there is no deterministic extinction in the process of ecological character displacement. Furthermore, species extinction becomes less likely in the case of positive covariance between ecological and reproductive traits as divergence of the ecological trait (e.g., root depths) increases the divergence speed of the reproductive trait (e.g., flower colors) and vice versa. It will be interesting to compare intraspecific genetic (co)variance of ecological and reproductive traits in future studies for understanding how ecological and reproductive character displacement occur without extinction.     

Forest fragmentation effects on patch occupancy and population viability of herbaceous plant species

Habitat fragmentation is one of the major threats to species diversity. In this review, we discuss how the genetic and demographic structure of fragmented populations of herbaceous forest plant species is affected by increased genetic drift and inbreeding, reduced mate availability, altered interactions with pollinators, and changed environmental conditions through edge effects. Reported changes in population genetic and demographic structure of fragmented plant populations have, however, not resulted in large-scale extinction of forest plants. The main reason for this is very likely the long-term persistence of small and isolated forest plant populations due to prolonged clonal growth and long generation times. Consequently, the persistence of small forest plant populations in a changing landscape may have resulted in an extinction debt, that is, in a distribution of forest plant species reflecting the historical landscape configuration rather than the present one. In some cases, fragmentation appears to affect ecosystem integrity rather than short-term population viability due to the opposition of different fragmentation-induced ecological effects. We finally discuss extinction and colonization dynamics of forest plant species at the regional scale and suggest that the use of the metapopulation concept, both because of its heuristic power and conservation applications, may be fruitful.     

The evolution of androgenesis

It is well known that some species produce offspring carrying only female chromosomes by processes such as apomixis and parthenogenesis (generically termed "gynogenesis"). There are also several cases of natural reproduction by androgenesis in which diploid offspring carry nuclear chromosomes from only the male parent. We used population genetics models to investigate the conditions for invasion of rare androgenesis alleles and the consequences of their spread. Our models predict that androgenesis alleles often spread to fixation. If fixation causes the loss of females or female function in the population, population extinction occurs. Therefore, androgenesis alleles represent a new class of selfish genetic elements. Extinction is more likely in dioecious species than in hermaphrodites. Within dioecious species, extinction is more likely when androgenesis occurs via paternal apomixis (vs. fusion or doubling of haploid nuclei) and when females are the heterogametic sex (vs. male heterogamety). The apparent rarity of androgenesis compared to gynogenesis could be because androgenesis is harder to detect and more often leads to population extinction. Also, there could be greater evolutionary constraints on the origin of mutations for androgenesis. We suggest characteristics of groups in which further cases of androgenesis are more likely to be found.     

生物多样性保护的一个理论框架

稳定而复杂多样的自然生境有利于多样性的形成和保存,剧变并趋于简单化的干扰生境常使多样性丧失。现实中的森林破碎化使区域物种丧失。多样性保护要求具备促使物种能长久生存的生境。生物最小面积概念集中讨论物种长久生存与群落（景观）面积的关系,是多样性保护的最基本的理论基础。根据自然保护实践,提出最小景观,扩充了生物最小面积概念。讨论了生物最小面积概念在建立自然保护区的理论框架、了解被保护生物及其生境的自然特点以及建立更全面的自然保护网络等方面的应用     

生物多样性保护的一个理论框架——生物最小面积概念

稳定而复杂多样的自然生境有利于多样性的形成和保存,剧变并趋于简单化的干扰生境常使多样性丧失。现实中的森林破碎化使区域物种丧失。多样性保护要求具备促使物种能长久生存的生境。生物最小面积概念集中讨论物种长久生存与群落(景观)面积的关系,是多样性保护的最基本的理论基础。根据自然保护实践,提出最小景观,扩充了生物最小面积概念。讨论了生物最小面积概念在建立自然保护区的理论框架、了解被保护生物及其生境的自然特点以及建立更全面的自然保护网络等方面的应用。     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Experimental evolution of the genetic load and its implications for the genetic basis of inbreeding depression

The degree to which, and rapidity with which, inbreeding depression can be purged from a population has important implications for conservation biology, captive breeding practices, and invasive species biology. The degree and rate of purging also informs us regarding the genetic mechanisms underlying inbreeding depression. We examine the evolution of mean survival and inbreeding depression in survival following serial inbreeding in a seed-feeding beetle, Stator limbatus, which shows substantial inbreeding depression at all stages of development. We created two replicate serially inbred populations perpetuated by full-sib matings and paired with outbred controls. The genetic load for the probability that an egg produces an adult was purged at approximately 0.45-0.50 lethal equivalents/generation, a reduction of more than half after only three generations of sib-mating. After serial inbreeding we outcrossed all beetles then measured (1) larval survival of outcrossed beetles and (2) inbreeding depression. Survival of outcrossed beetles evolved to be higher in the serially inbred populations for all periods of development. Inbreeding depression and the genetic load were significantly lower in the serially inbred than control populations. Inbreeding depression affecting larval survival of S. limbatus is largely due to recessive deleterious alleles of large effect that can be rapidly purged from a population by serial sib-mating. However, the effectiveness of purging varied among the periods of egg/larval survival and likely varies among other unstudied fitness components. This study presents novel results showing rapid and extensive purging of the genetic load, specifically a reduction of as much as 72% in only three generations of sib-mating. However, the high rate of extinction of inbred lines, despite the lines being reared in a benign laboratory environment, indicates that intentional purging of the genetic load of captive endangered species will not be practical due to high rates of subpopulation extinction.     

Effects of metapopulation processes on measures of genetic diversity

Many species persist as a metapopulation under a balance between the local extinction of subpopulations or demes and their recolonization through dispersal from occupied patches. Here we review the growing body of literature dealing with the genetic consequences of such population turnover. We focus our attention principally on theoretical studies of a classical metapopulation with a 'finite-island' model of population structure, rather than on 'continent-island' models or 'source-sink' models. In particular, we concern ourselves with the subset of geographically subdivided population models in which it is assumed that all demes are liable to extinction from time to time and that all demes receive immigrants. Early studies of the genetic effects of population turnover focused on population differentiation, such as measured by F(ST). A key advantage of F(ST) over absolute measures of diversity is its relative independence of the mutation process, so that different genes in the same species may be compared. Another advantage is that F(ST) will usually equilibrate more quickly following perturbations than will absolute levels of diversity. However, because F(ST) is a ratio of between-population differentiation to total diversity, the genetic effects of metapopulation processes may be difficult to interpret in terms of F(ST) on its own, so that the analysis of absolute measures of diversity in addition is likely to be informative. While population turnover may either increase or decrease F(ST), depending on the mode of colonization, recurrent extinction and recolonization is expected always to reduce levels of both within-population and species-wide diversity (piS and piT, respectively). One corollary of this is that piS cannot be used as an unbiased estimate of the scaled mutation rate, theta, as it can, with some assumptions about the migration process, in species whose demes do not fluctuate in size. The reduction of piT in response to population turnover reflects shortened mean coalescent times, although the distribution of coalescence times under extinction colonization equilibrium is not yet known. Finally, we review current understanding of the effect of metapopulation dynamics on the effective population size.     

Inconsistent detection of extinction debts using different methods

The extinction debt, delayed species extinctions following landscape degradation, is a widely discussed concept. But a consensus about the prevalence of extinctions debts is hindered by a multiplicity of methods and a lack of comparisons among habitats. We applied three contrasting species–area relationship methods to test for plant community extinction debts in three habitats which had different degradation histories over the last century: calcareous grassland, heathland and woodland. These methods differ in their data requirements, with the first two using information on past and current habitat area alongside current species richness, whilst the last method also requires data on past species richness. The most data‐intensive, and hence arguably most reliable method, identified extinction debts across all habitats for specialist species, whilst the other methods did not. All methods detected an extinction debt in calcareous grassland, which had undergone the most severe degradation. We conclude that some methods failed to detect an extinction debt, particularly in habitats that have undergone moderate degradation. Data on past species numbers are required for the most reliable method; as such data are rare, extinction debts may be under‐reported.     

Breeding birds on small islands: island biogeography or optimal foraging?

1. We test MacArthur and Wilson's theory about the biogeography of communities on isolated habitat patches using bird breeding records from 16 small islands off the coasts of Britain and Ireland. 2. A traditional examination of patterns of species richness on these islands suggests that area and habitat diversity are important predictors, but that isolation and latitude have a negligible impact in this system. 3. Unlike traditional studies, we directly examine the fundamental processes of colonization and local extinction (cessation of breeding), rather than higher-order phenomena such as species richness. 4. We find that many of MacArthur and Wilson's predictions hold: colonization probability is lower on more isolated islands, and extinction probability is lower on larger islands and those with a greater diversity of habitats. 5. We also find an unexpected pattern: extinction probability is much lower on more isolated islands. This is the strongest relationship in these data, and isolation is the best single predictor of colonization and extinction. 6. Our results show that examination of species richness alone is misleading. Isolation has a strong effect on both of the dynamic processes that underlie richness, and in this system, the reductions in both colonization and extinction probability seen on more distant islands have opposing influences on species richness, and largely cancel each other out. 7. We suggest that an appropriate model for this system might be optimal foraging theory, which predicts that organisms will stay longer in a resource patch if the distance to a neighbouring patch is large. If nest sites and food are the resources in this system, then optimal foraging theory predicts the pattern we observe. 8. We advance the hypothesis that there is a class of spatial systems, defined by their scale and by the taxon under consideration, at which decision-making processes are a key driver of the spatiotemporal dynamics. The appropriate theory for such systems will be a hybrid of concepts from biogeography/metapopulation theory and behavioural ecology.     

Small edge populations at risk: genetic diversity of the green lizard (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lacerta viridis viridis</Emphasis>) in Germany and implications for conservation management

Edge and central populations can show great differences regarding their genetic variation and thereby also in their probability of extinction. This fact might be of great importance for the conservation strategies of endangered species. In this study we examine the level of microsatellite variability within three threatened edge populations of the green lizard subspecies Lacerta viridis viridis (Laur.) in Brandenburg (Germany) and compare the observed variation to other edge and central populations within the northern species range. We demonstrate that the northernmost edge populations contain less genetic variation in comparison to the central population. However, there were no observable significant differences to the other edge population included in this study. Surprisingly, we observed a high genetic differentiation in a small geographical range between the three endangered populations in Brandenburg, which can be explained by processes like fragmentation, isolation, genetic drift and small individual numbers within these populations. We also detected unique genetic variants (alleles), which only occurred in these populations, despite a low overall genetic variation. This study demonstrates the potential of fast evolving markers assessing the genetic status of endangered populations with a high resolution. It also illustrates the need for a comparative analysis of different regions within the species range, achieving a more exact interpretation of the genetic variation in endangered populations. This will aid future management decisions in the conservation of genetic diversity in threatened species.     

Rarity value and species extinction: the anthropogenic Allee effect

Standard economic theory predicts that exploitation alone is unlikely to result in species extinction because of the escalating costs of finding the last individuals of a declining species. We argue that the human predisposition to place exaggerated value on rarity fuels disproportionate exploitation of rare species, rendering them even rarer and thus more desirable, ultimately leading them into an extinction vortex. Here we present a simple mathematical model and various empirical examples to show how the value attributed to rarity in some human activities could precipitate the extinction of rare species—a concept that we term the anthropogenic Allee effect. The alarming finding that human perception of rarity can precipitate species extinction has serious implications for the conservation of species that are rare or that may become so, be they charismatic and emblematic or simply likely to become fashionable for certain activities.     

Spatial extent of bird species response to landscape changes: colonisation/extinction dynamics at the community-level in two contrasting habitats

Animal community dynamics in changing landscapes are primarily driven by changes in vegetation structure and ultimately by how species respond to these changes and at which spatial scale. We consider two major components of local community dynamics, species colonisation and extinction. We hypothesise that (1) the optimal spatial extent needed to accurately predict them will differ between these two processes; (2) it will also likely differ from species to species as a result of life history traits differences related to differences in habitat selection and (3) that a species' primary habitat will determine the spatial extent at which it perceives change in vegetation structure. We used data collected over 25 yr in a changing Mediterranean landscape to study bird species local colonisation and extinction patterns in two groups of species typical from two habitats: open farmland and woodland. Vegetation changes were measured at spatial extents ranging from 0.2 to 79 ha. Local species colonisation and extinction estimates were computed using a method accounting for heterogeneity in detection probability among species. We built linear models between local species colonisation/extinction estimates and vegetation changes and examined variations in model quality with respect to the spatial extent at which vegetation changes had been measured. Models for open habitat species showed that colonisation processes operated at the landscape scale (79 ha), while extinction was more tightly linked to local habitat requirements (0.2 ha). Models for woodland species presented a low and constant model quality whatever the spatial extent considered. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the woodland species considered responded to a combination of vegetation changes at several scales and, in particular, to changes in the vertical structure of the vegetation. We highlight the need to explicitly consider spatial extent in studies of habitat selection and of habitat and population dynamics to improve our understanding of the biological consequences of land use changes and guide more effective conservation efforts.     

A machine learning approach to investigate the reasons behind species extinction

Species extinction is one of the most important phenomena in conservation biology. Many factors are involved in the disappearance of species, including stochastic population fluctuations, habitat change, resource depletion, and inbreeding. Due to the complexity of the interactions between these various factors and the lengthy time period required to make empirical observations, studying the phenomenon of species extinction can prove to be very difficult in nature. On the other hand, an investigation of the various features involved in species extinction using individual-based simulation modeling and machine learning techniques can be accomplished in a reasonably short period of time. Thus, the aim of this paper is to investigate multiple factors involved in species extinction using computer simulation modeling. We apply several machine learning techniques to the data generated by EcoSim, a predator–prey ecosystem simulation, in order to select the most prominent features involved in species extinction, along with extracting rules that outline conditions that have the potential to be used for predicting extinction. In particular, we used five feature selection methods resulting in the selection of 25 features followed by a reduction of these to 14 features using correlation analysis. Each of the remaining features was placed in one of three broad categories, viz., genetic, environmental, or demographic. The experimental results suggest that factors such as population fluctuation, reproductive age, and genetic distance are important in the occurrence of species extinction in EcoSim, similar to what is observed in nature. We argue that the study of the behavior of species through Individual-Based Modeling has the potential to give rise to new insights into the central factors involved in extinction for real ecosystems. This approach has the potential to help with the detection of early signals of species extinction that could in turn lead to conservation policies to help prevent extinction.     

Distribution, ecology, life history, genetic variation, and risk of extinction of nonhuman primates from Costa Rica

We examined the association between geographic distribution, ecological traits, life history, genetic diversity, and risk of extinction in nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica. All of the current nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica are included in the study; spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi), howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata), capuchins (Cebus capucinus), and squirrel monkeys (Saimiri oerstedii). Geographic distribution was characterized accessing existing databases. Data on ecology and life history traits were obtained through a literature review. Genetic diversity was characterized using isozyme electrophoresis. Risk of extinction was assessed from the literature. We found that species differed in all these traits. Using these data, we conducted a Pearson correlation between risk of extinction and ecological and life history traits, and genetic variation, for widely distributed species. We found a negative association between risk of extinction and population birth and growth rates; indicating that slower reproducing species had a greater risk of extinction. We found a positive association between genetic variation and risk of extinction; i.e., species showing higher genetic variation had a greater risk of extinction. The relevance of these traits for conservation efforts is discussed.     

Life history predicts risk of species decline in a stochastic world

Understanding what traits determine the extinction risk of species has been a long-standing challenge. Natural populations increasingly experience reductions in habitat and population size concurrent with increasing novel environmental variation owing to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Recent studies show that a species risk of decline towards extinction is often non-random across species with different life histories. We propose that species with life histories in which all stage-specific vital rates are more evenly important to population growth rate may be less likely to decline towards extinction under these pressures. To test our prediction, we modelled declines in population growth rates under simulated stochastic disturbance to the vital rates of 105 species taken from the literature. Populations with more equally important vital rates, determined using elasticity analysis, declined more slowly across a gradient of increasing simulated environmental variation. Furthermore, higher evenness of elasticity was significantly correlated with a reduced chance of listing as Threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. The relative importance of life-history traits of diverse species can help us infer how natural assemblages will be affected by novel anthropogenic and climatic disturbances.     

Correlates of rediscovery and the detectability of extinction in mammals

Extinction is difficult to detect, even in well-known taxa such as mammals. Species with long gaps in their sighting records, which might be considered possibly extinct, are often rediscovered. We used data on rediscovery rates of missing mammals to test whether extinction from different causes is equally detectable and to find which traits affect the probability of rediscovery. We find that species affected by habitat loss were much more likely to be misclassified as extinct or to remain missing than those affected by introduced predators and diseases, or overkill, unless they had very restricted distributions. We conclude that extinctions owing to habitat loss are most difficult to detect; hence, impacts of habitat loss on extinction have probably been overestimated, especially relative to introduced species. It is most likely that the highest rates of rediscovery will come from searching for species that have gone missing during the 20th century and have relatively large ranges threatened by habitat loss, rather than from additional effort focused on charismatic missing species.