The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

A model-based framework for assessing the vulnerability of low dispersal vertebrates to landscape fragmentation under environmental change

Environmental changes are driving rapid geographic shifts of suitable environmental conditions for species. These might survive by tracking those shifts, however successful responses will depend on the spatial distribution of suitable habitats (current and future) and on their connectivity. Most herptiles (i.e., amphibians and reptiles) have low dispersal abilities, and therefore herptiles are among the most vulnerable groups to environmental changes. Here we assessed the vulnerability of herptile species to future climate and land use changes in fragmented landscapes. We developed and tested a methodological approach combining the strengths of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and of functional connectivity analysis. First, using SDMs we forecasted current and future distributions of potential suitable areas as well as range dynamics for four herptile species in Portugal. SDM forecasts for 2050 were obtained under two contrasting emission scenarios, translated into moderate (low-emissions scenario) or large (high-emissions scenario) changes in climate and land use conditions. Then, we calculated and analysed functional connectivity from areas projected to lose environmental suitability towards areas keeping suitable conditions. Landscape matrix resistance and barrier effects of the national motorway network were incorporated as the main sources of fragmentation. Potential suitable area was projected to decrease under future conditions for most test species, with the high-emissions scenario amplifying the losses or gains. Spatiotemporal patterns of connectivity between potentially suitable areas signalled the most important locations for maintaining linkages and migration corridors, as well as potential conflicts due to overlaps with the current motorway network. By integrating SDM projections with functional connectivity analysis, we were able to assess and map the vulnerability of distinct herptile species to isolation or extinction under environmental change scenarios. Our framework provides valuable information, with fairly low data requirements, for optimizing biodiversity management and mitigation efforts, aiming to reduce the complex and often synergistic negative impacts of multiple environmental change drivers. Implications for conservation planning and management are discussed from a global change adaptation perspective.     

Indication of antagonistic interaction between climate change and erosion on plant species richness and soil properties in semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems

We analyzed the consequences of climate change and the increase in soil erosion, as well as their interaction on plant and soil properties in semiarid Mediterranean shrublands in Eastern Spain. Current models on drivers of biodiversity change predict an additive or synergistic interaction between drivers that will increase the negative effects of each one. We used a climatic gradient that reproduces the predicted climate changes in temperature and precipitation for the next 40 years of the wettest and coldest end of the gradient; we also compared flat areas with 20° steep hillslopes. We found that plant species richness and plant cover are negatively affected by climate change and soil erosion, which in turn negatively affects soil resistance to erosion, nutrient content and water holding capacity. We also found that plant species diversity correlates weakly with plant cover but strongly with soil properties related to fertility, water holding capacity and resistance to erosion. Conversely, these soil properties correlate weaker with plant species cover. The joint effect of climate change and soil erosion on plant species richness and soil characteristics is antagonistic. That is, the absolute magnitude of change is smaller than the sum of both effects. However, there is no interaction between climate change and soil erosion on plant cover and their effects fit the additive model. The differences in the interaction model between plant cover and species richness supports the view that several soil properties are more linked to the effect that particular plant species have on soil processes than to the quantity and quality of the plant cover and biomass they support. Our findings suggest that plant species richness is a better indicator than plant cover of ecosystems services related with soil development and protection to erosion in semiarid Mediterranean climates.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

The fate of European breeding birds under climate,land‐use and dispersal scenarios

Many species have already shifted their distributions in response to recent climate change. Here, we aimed at predicting the future breeding distributions of European birds under climate, land‐use, and dispersal scenarios. We predicted current and future distributions of 409 species within an ensemble forecast framework using seven species distribution models (SDMs), five climate scenarios and three emission and land‐use scenarios. We then compared results from SDMs using climate‐only variables, habitat‐only variables or both climate and habitat variables. In order to account for a species’ dispersal abilities, we used natal dispersal estimates and developed a probabilistic method that produced a dispersal scenario intermediate between the null and full dispersal scenarios generally considered in such studies. We then compared results from all scenarios in terms of future predicted range changes, range shifts, and variations in species richness. Modeling accuracy was better with climate‐only variables than with habitat‐only variables, and better with both climate and habitat variables. Habitat models predicted smaller range shifts and smaller variations in range size and species richness than climate models. Using both climate and habitat variables, it was predicted that the range of 71% of the species would decrease by 2050, with a 335 km median shift. Predicted variations in species richness showed large decreases in the southern regions of Europe, as well as increases, mainly in Scandinavia and northern Russia. The partial dispersal scenario was significantly different from the full dispersal scenario for 25% of the species, resulting in the local reduction of the future predicted species richness of up to 10%. We concluded that the breeding range of most European birds will decrease in spite of dispersal abilities close to a full dispersal hypothesis, and that given the contrasted predictions obtained when modeling climate change only and land‐use change only, both scenarios must be taken into consideration.     

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

Community‐level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non‐climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely‐used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially‐explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constrained predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire–vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire–vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process‐based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Net increases in CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI is thus strongly dependent on complex interactions between climate change and fire–vegetation dynamics. The potential impacts on bird communities may be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly incorporate these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast climate change impact in dynamic ecosystems. In fire‐prone systems, wildfire management and land‐use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively.     

River network saturation concept: factors influencing the balance of biogeochemical supply and demand of river networks

River networks modify material transfer from land to ocean. Understanding the factors regulating this function for different gaseous, dissolved, and particulate constituents is critical to quantify the local and global effects of climate and land use change. We propose the River Network Saturation (RNS) concept as a generalization of how river network regulation of material fluxes declines with increasing flows due to imbalances between supply and demand at network scales. River networks have a tendency to become saturated (supply???demand) under higher flow conditions because supplies increase faster than sink processes. However, the flow thresholds under which saturation occurs depends on a variety of factors, including the inherent process rate for a given constituent and the abundance of lentic waters such as lakes, ponds, reservoirs, and fluvial wetlands within the river network. As supply increases, saturation at network scales is initially limited by previously unmet demand in downstream aquatic ecosystems. The RNS concept describes a general tendency of river network function that can be used to compare the fate of different constituents among river networks. New approaches using nested in situ high-frequency sensors and spatially extensive synoptic techniques offer the potential to test the RNS concept in different settings. Better understanding of when and where river networks saturate for different constituents will allow for the extrapolation of aquatic function to broader spatial scales and therefore provide information on the influence of river function on continental element cycles and help identify policy priorities.     

中国土地利用空间格局动态变化模拟——以规划情景为例

土地利用变化研究在环境可持续发展研究领域中具有重要的地位,其空间分布格局的变化影响到生物地球化学循环、气候变化、生物多样性等。采用土地利用动态变化模型Dyna-CLUE模拟了在规划情景下中国土地利用变化未来空间分布格局。将土地利用类型分为六大类,即耕地、草地、林地、建设用地、水域和其它用地。驱动因子包括地形地貌、气候、社会交通等方面,对动态驱动因子如气温、降水、人口交通等,考虑了其在未来情景下的发展趋势。基于土地利用类型与驱动因子之间的定量关系和土地利用类型之间的转换规则等,模拟出至2020年中国土地利用分布格局。结果表明,至2020年,中国东南部、黄淮海平原、四川盆地等地区耕地面积将增加,东北、西北等农牧交错区、农林交错区和沙漠边缘耕地面积将会呈轻度减少趋势;林地面积将增加1417.91万hm2,主要发生在中国东北部以及西南部水热条件好的地区;中国草地在面积上保持稳定,空间上中东部、东南地区草地面积减少,内蒙古中部,青海东部,四川盆地北缘区和青藏高原等地面积增加;建设用地增加531.76万hm2,主要发生在中国的东部地区。     

Species richness and evenness respond to diverging land‐use patterns – a cross‐border study of dry tropical woodlands in southern Africa

Cross‐border studies offer unique situations to study the impact of different land‐use regimes on ecosystems. Along the Angolan and Namibian border formed by the Okavango River, the environmental conditions and traditional land‐use practises are the same on either side of the river. However, decades of civil war in Angola led to a stagnant development while political stability in Namibia fostered a recent socio‐economic transformation. We investigated the impact of spatially diffuse land use on plant diversity of the dry tropical woodlands covering the vast, sandy hinterlands of the river. As accessibility is the major factor governing land use, we used distance to road as a proxy for land‐use intensity. Based on 58 vegetation plots sized 20 m × 50 m, we showed that species richness increased with distance to road in Angola while in Namibia it remained constant on a lower level. Evenness showed an inverse pattern to species richness and Shannon diversity index showed no response. Analysing diversity patterns according to life forms revealed that these patterns are primarily driven by woody species. The study showed that spatially diffuse land use has a measurable effect on plant diversity and illustrates that roads act as vectors of change.     

Disentangling the Role of Climate,Topography and Vegetation in Species Richness Gradients

Environmental gradients (EG) related to climate, topography and vegetation are among the most important drivers of broad scale patterns of species richness. However, these different EG do not necessarily drive species richness in similar ways, potentially presenting synergistic associations when driving species richness. Understanding the synergism among EG allows us to address key questions arising from the effects of global climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Herein, we use variation partitioning (also know as commonality analysis) to disentangle unique and shared contributions of different EG in explaining species richness of Neotropical vertebrates. We use three broad sets of predictors to represent the environmental variability in (i) climate (annual mean temperature, temperature annual range, annual precipitation and precipitation range), (ii) topography (mean elevation, range and coefficient of variation of elevation), and (iii) vegetation (land cover diversity, standard deviation and range of forest canopy height). The shared contribution between two types of EG is used to quantify synergistic processes operating among EG, offering new perspectives on the causal relationships driving species richness. To account for spatially structured processes, we use Spatial EigenVector Mapping models. We perform analyses across groups with distinct dispersal abilities (amphibians, non-volant mammals, bats and birds) and discuss the influence of vagility on the partitioning results. Our findings indicate that broad scale patterns of vertebrate richness are mainly affected by the synergism between climate and vegetation, followed by the unique contribution of climate. Climatic factors were relatively more important in explaining species richness of good dispersers. Most of the variation in vegetation that explains vertebrate richness is climatically structured, supporting the productivity hypothesis. Further, the weak synergism between topography and vegetation urges caution when using topographic complexity as a surrogate of habitat (vegetation) heterogeneity.     

气候与土地利用变化下宁夏清水河流域径流模拟

气候和土地利用变化是影响水资源变化最直接的因素。应用SWAT模型对干旱半干旱区小流域宁夏清水河流域径流进行多情景模拟预测,以历史气候要素变化趋势和CA-Markov模型分别设置未来气候和土地利用变化情景,以决定系数R2和Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数Ens(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient)来衡量模拟值与实测值之间的拟合度,并评价模型在清水河流域的适用性。结果表明,韩府湾站在校准期和验证期的R~2分别为0.80和0.71,Ens分别为0.77和0.69,泉眼山站在校准期和验证期的R2分别为0.66和0.63,Ens分别为0.62和0.56,表明构建的SWAT模型可以用于清水河流域的径流模拟。对未来气候和土地利用变化情景下径流的模拟结果显示,径流变化主要由降水变化主导,降水减少和气温升高的综合作用对流域径流变化影响最为显著;由于耕地和建设用地的增加,未来3种土地利用情景下流域径流量将均会呈现明显增加变化。与2010年相比,到2020年,自然增长情景流域径流将增加17.04%,林地保护情景径流将增加14.44%,规划情景径流将增加13.98%;综合降水、气温和土地利用的结合变化情景显示,未来流域径流将会有不同程度的下降,规划情景和气候变化的结合情景的径流下降最为明显,而有意增大林地和加强生态保护的林地保护情景对减缓流域径流下降具有一定作用。在气候变化的大背景下,根据水资源利用管理目标,可通过调整流域管理措施,特别是土地利用变化和改善区域小气候来减缓气候变化对流域水资源的负面效果,以此来改善流域径流和生态环境状况。     

Climate change threatens protected areas of the Atlantic Forest

Only 7 % of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot is currently protected, though it holds 18 % of all amphibian species in South America. How effective would the Atlantic Forest network of protected areas (PAs) be in a changing climate? Are there some intrinsic features of PAs that drive species loss or gain inside them? We addressed these questions by modeling the ecological niches of 430 amphibian species in the Atlantic Forest and projecting their distributions into three future climate change simulations. We then assessed changes in species richness inside PAs for different time frames and tested their significance via null model. The number of species should decline within Atlantic Forest network of PAs under changing climate conditions. Only altitude was a good predictor of species gains or lost inside PAs. Therefore, we suggest that new PAs established in highlands would be more effective to alleviate the effects of climate change on this imperiled fauna.     

Trade-offs between plant species richness and carbon storage in the context of afforestation – Examples from afforestation scenarios in the Mulde Basin,Germany

The German Federal State of Saxony aims to increase forest cover, supported by the implementation of afforestation programs. To analyze consequences of an increase in forest cover, this study investigates possible trade-offs between carbon storage and plant biodiversity caused by afforestation. Six afforestation scenarios with total forest cover ranging from 27.7% to 46% were generated in the Mulde river basin in Saxony with regard to different forest types. Carbon storage was calculated by the process-based Dynamic Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS while random forest models were used to predict changes in plant species richness. We used eight different plant groups as responses: total number of plant species, endangered species, as well as species grouped by native status (three groups) and pollination traits (three groups). Afforestation led to an increase in carbon storage that was slightly stronger in coniferous forests as compared to deciduous forests. The relationship between plant species richness and afforestation was context dependent. Species richness showed a non-linear relationship with forest cover share. The relationship was influenced by shares of land use types, climatic conditions and land use configuration expressed by the number of land use patches. The effect of forest type on plant species richness was marginal. On average the relationship between carbon storage and plant species richness was synergistic for most plant groups. However, the relationship between change in species richness and change in carbon storage varied across space. This changing relationship was used to identify priority areas for afforestation. The different plant groups responded differently to an increase in forest cover. The change in species richness for Red List species was relatively distinct from the other species groups. Neophytes and archeophytes (i.e. alien plant species introduced after and before the discovery of the Americas) showed a similar response to the afforestation scenarios. While afforestation had overall positive effects both on plant species richness and carbon storage, a number of locations were identified for which afforestation would lead to a decrease in plant species richness. Spatial planning should therefore avoid afforestation at these locations.     

Cumulative effects of land use,altered fire regime and climate change on persistence of Ceanothus verrucosus,a rare,fire‐dependent plant species

Mediterranean ecosystems are among the highest in species richness and endemism globally and are also among the most sensitive to climate and land‐use change. Fire is an important driver of ecosystem processes in these systems; however, fire regimes have been substantially changed by human activities. Climate change is predicted to further alter fire regimes and species distributions, leading to habitat loss and threatening biodiversity. It is currently unknown what the population‐level effects of these landscape‐level changes will be. We linked a spatially explicit stochastic population model to dynamic bioclimate envelopes to investigate the effects of climate change, habitat loss and fragm entation and altered fire regime on population abundances of a long‐lived obligate seeding shrub, Ceanothus verrucosus, a rare endemic species of southern California. We tested a range of fire return intervals under the present and two future climate scenarios. We also assessed the impact of potential anthropogenic land‐use change by excluding land identified as developable by local governments. We found that the 35–50 year fire return interval resulted in the highest population abundances. Expected minimum population abundance (EMA) declined gradually as fire return interval increased, but declined dramatically for shorter fire intervals. Simulated future development resulted in a 33% decline in EMA, but relatively stable population trajectories over the time frame modeled. Relative changes in EMA for alternative fire intervals were similar for all climate and habitat loss scenarios, except under the more severe climate scenario which resulted in a change in the relative ranking of the fire scenarios. Our results show climate change to be the most serious threat facing obligate seeding shrubs embedded in urban landscapes, resulting in population decline and increased local extirpation, and that likely interactions with other threats increase risks to these species. Taking account of parameter uncertainty did not alter our conclusions.     

Assessing ecosystem threats from global and regional change: hierarchical modeling of risk to sagebrush ecosystems from climate change, land use and invasive species in Nevada, USA

Global change poses significant challenges for ecosystem conservation. At regional scales, climate change may lead to extensive shifts in species distributions and widespread extirpations or extinctions. At landscape scales, land use and invasive species disrupt ecosystem function and reduce species richness. However, a lack of spatially explicit models of risk to ecosystems makes it difficult for science to inform conservation planning and land management. Here, I model risk to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the state of Nevada, USA from climate change, land use/land cover change, and species invasion. Risk from climate change is based on an ensemble of 10 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections applied to two bioclimatic envelope models (Mahalanobis distance and Maxent). Risk from land use is based on the distribution of roads, agriculture, and powerlines, and on the spatial relationships between land use and probability of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in Nevada. Risk from land cover change is based on probability and extent of pinyon-juniper ( Pinus monophylla; Juniperus spp.) woodland expansion. Climate change is most likely to negatively impact sagebrush ecosystems at the edges of its current range, particularly in southern Nevada, southern Utah, and eastern Washington. Risk from land use and woodland expansion is pervasive throughout Nevada, while cheatgrass invasion is most problematic in the northern part of the state. Cumulatively, these changes pose major challenges for conservation of sagebrush and sagebrush obligate species. This type of comprehensive assessment of ecosystem risk provides managers with spatially explicit tools important for conservation planning.     

An attack on two fronts: predicting how changes in land use and climate affect the distribution of stream macroinvertebrates

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Neophyte species richness at the landscape scale under urban sprawl and climate warming

Aim Land use and climate are two major components of global environmental change but our understanding of their simultaneous and interactive effects upon biodiversity is still limited. Here, we investigated the relationship between the species richness of neophytes, i.e. non‐native vascular plants introduced after 1500 AD, and environmental covariates to draw implications for future dynamics under land‐use and climate change. Location Switzerland, Central Europe. Methods The distribution of vascular plants was derived from a systematic national grid of 1 km² quadrates (n = 456; Swiss Biodiversity Monitoring programme) including 1761 species, 122 of which were neophytes. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to correlate neophyte species richness with environmental covariates. The impact of land‐use and climate change was thereafter evaluated by projections for the years 2020 and 2050 using scenarios of moderate and strong changes for climate warming (IPCC) and urban sprawl (NRP 54). Results Mean annual temperature and the amount of urban areas explained neophyte species richness best, with a high predictive power of the corresponding model (cross‐validated D² = 0.816). Climate warming had a stronger impact on the potential increase in the mean neophyte species richness (up to 191% increase by 2050) than ongoing urban sprawl (up to 10% increase) independently from variable interactions and model extrapolations to non‐analogue environments. Main conclusions In contrast to other vascular plants, the prediction of neophyte species richness at the landscape scale in Switzerland requires few variables only, and regions of highest species richness of the two groups do not coincide. The neophyte species richness is basically driven by climatic (temperature) conditions, and urban areas additionally modulate small‐scale differences upon this coarse‐scale pattern. According to the projections climate warming will contribute to the future increase in neophyte species richness much more than ongoing urbanization, but the gain in new neophyte species will be highest in urban regions.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.