气候变化情景下中国自然植被净初级生产力分布

基于国际上较通用的Lund-Potsdam-Jena(LPJ)模型,根据中国自然环境特点对其运行机制进行调整,并重新进行了参数化,以B2情景气候数据作为主要的输入数据,以1961-1990年为基准时段,模拟了中国1991-2080自然植被净初级生产力(NPP)对气候变化的响应.结果表明:1961-1990年,中国自然植被的NPP总量为3.06 Pg C·a-1;1961-2080年,NPP总量呈波动下降趋势,且下降速度逐渐加快.在降水相对变化不大的条件下,平均温度的增加对我国植被生产力可能会产生一定的负面影响.NPP的空间分布从东南沿海向西北内陆呈逐渐递减趋势,在气候变化过程中,该格局基本没有太大变化.在东部NPP值相对较高地区,NPP值以减少为主,东北地区、华北东部和黄土高原地区的减少趋势尤为明显;在西部NPP值相对较低地区,NPP以增加趋势为主,青藏高原地区和塔里木盆地的表现尤为突出.随着气候变化的深入,东西部地区这种变化趋势的对比将越发明显.     

植被年际变化对蒸散发影响的模拟研究

利用通用陆面模式(CLM3.0)及其植被动力学模式(DGVM)研究植被覆盖度(FC)和叶面积指数(LAI)的年际变化对全球蒸散发的影响。设计两套实验方案,其植被的FC和LAI的气候态相同,但一套实验中植被的FC和LAI有年际变化,而对照实验中则没有。结果表明:(1)在草、灌木、树占优势的地区植被FC年际变化依次减小;LAI年际变化较大的地区集中在草和灌木覆盖的地区,在落叶林地区,春秋两季植被LAI的年际变化也较大。(2)全球树占优势的大部分地区,植被的年际变化使得年平均蒸散发和地表蒸发增加、冠层蒸发和蒸腾减少;而在灌木和草覆盖区,变化则大致相反。(3)低纬度地区蒸散发季节循环变化比较明显,而北半球中纬度地区,蒸散发变化明显区随着纬度增加而在时间上向后推延。(4)FC和LAI年际变化较大时,蒸散发及地表蒸发降低,而蒸腾增加;这些差异随FC和LAI年际变化的增加而增加。单点分析进一步表明植被年际变化不仅改变蒸散发的多年平均值,同时改变其分量间的相对比例。     

Temporal variation in bird assemblages: How representative is a one‐year snapshot?

Abstract Bird assemblages generally are no longer regarded as stable entities, but rather as fluctuating in response to many factors. Australia's highly variable climate is likely to result in a high degree of dynamism in its bird assemblages, yet few studies have investigated variation on an inter‐annual temporal scale. We compared 2 year‐long samples of the bird assemblages of a series of highly fragmented buloke Allocasuarina luehmannii (Casuarinaceae) woodland remnants in south‐eastern Australia, the first sample taken in 1994–95 and the second in 2001–02. Bird densities were almost three times higher in the second period than in the first. Mean species richness also was significantly higher. Species richness of each individual site was unrelated between the 2 years. Minimum species turnover was 63% and was higher, on average, for migratory and nomadic than for sedentary species. Therefore, site‐level bird assemblage composition was markedly different between the two survey periods and, on average, the assemblage composition of each site bore greater resemblance to those of other sites in the same year than to that of the same site in the other survey period. Most species changed substantially in their distribution among remnants between the two periods. The change in distribution of most species did not differ significantly from that expected if the species had redistributed at random among the sites. This suggests that although the remnant vegetation of the area is highly fragmented with minimal interpatch connectivity, bird movements among remnants are relatively frequent. Inter‐annual variability in Australian bird assemblages may be higher than is commonly recognized. In such dynamic systems, we must be cautious when extrapolating from the findings of short‐term studies to longer temporal scales, especially in relation to conservation management. A greater understanding of the processes driving distributional patterns is likely to enable better predictions of species’ responses to habitat change.     

Scales of spatiotemporal variability in macroinvertebrate abundance and diversity in monsoonal streams: detecting environmental change

1. We quantified spatial and temporal variability in benthic macroinvertebrate species richness, diversity and abundance in six unpolluted streams in monsoonal Hong Kong at different scales using a nested sampling design. The spatial scales were regions, stream sites and stream sections within sites; temporal scales were years (1997–99), seasons (dry versus wet seasons) and days within seasons. 2. Spatiotemporal variability in total abundance and species richness was greater during the wet season, especially at small scales, and tended to obscure site‐ and region‐scale differences, which were more conspicuous during the dry season. Total abundance and richness were greater in the dry season, reflecting the effects of spate‐induced disturbance during the wet season. Species diversity showed little variation at the seasonal scale, but variability at the site scale was apparent during both seasons. 3. Despite marked variations in monsoonal rainfall, inter‐year differences in macroinvertebrate richness and abundance at the site scale during the wet season were minor. Inter‐year differences were only evident during the dry season when streams were at base flow and biotic interactions may structure assemblages. 4. Small‐scale patchiness within riffles was the dominant spatial scale of variation in macroinvertebrate richness, total abundance and densities of common species, although site or region was important for some species. The proportion of total variance contributed by small‐scale spatial variability increased during the dry season, whereas temporal variability associated with days was greater during the wet season. 5. The observed patterns of spatiotemporal variation have implications for detection of environmental change or biomonitoring using macroinvertebrate indicators in streams in monsoonal regions. Sampling should be confined to the dry season or, in cases where more resources are available, make use of data from both dry and wet seasons. Sampling in more than one dry season is required to avoid the potentially confounding effects of inter‐year variation, although variability at that scale was relatively small.     

Variability on morphological and ecological seed traits of Limonium avei (De Not.) Brullo & Erben (Plumbaginaceae)

Limonium avei is an annual species occurring in the salt‐marshes and in limited surfaces of rocky areas around the Mediterranean coasts. Seed lots from five populations of this species, along a latitudinal gradient, were analyzed using an image analysis system to detect differences in seed morphology among populations. Germination requirements at constant (5–25°C) and alternating temperatures (25/10°C), both in light and in darkness, were evaluated for all populations, as well as the effect of the calyx removal on final seed germination and its rate. Morpho‐colorimetric analysis clearly identified seeds from different populations, habitats and substrates without misattributions among them. The calyx slowed the germination process, influencing both final germination and rate with respect to naked seeds. Seeds from all populations germinated with significantly higher percentages in the light, with respect to those incubated in the darkness, and showed rapid germination (time in days to reach 50% of germination: 0.5 days) at the warmer tested temperature (25°C). High germination (>80%) was also detected for seeds of all the investigated populations, except for those from the Apulian region (South Italy, ca. 60%). Our results highlight that L. avei has a high variability in seed morphology, probably habitat induced, and a fast germination response for all populations. Rapid germination may be an adaptive strategy that allows L. avei seeds to take advantage of transient favorable conditions during the germination stage, to ensure seedling establishment under the unpredictable rainfall pattern in the Mediterranean climate.     

How does temporal variability affect predictions of weed population numbers?

1. Population models that are used to predict weed population dynamics or the impact of control measures on weed abundance typically ignore temporal variability in life-history parameters and control measures, and utilize mean arithmetic population growth rates to predict population abundance.
2. We demonstrate that the persistence of weeds in a stochastically varying environment depends on the geometric mean population growth rate being greater than zero, rather than the arithmetic mean population growth rate being greater than zero.
3. In a stochastically varying environment we show that temporal variability in fecundity, germination and survivorship will tend to decrease population size, relative to predictions based on arithmetic means. Conversely, variability in competitive effects and weed control will tend to increase population size, relative to predictions based on arithmetic mean values. The distinction between these two sets of parameters is that increases in the former will increase population growth rate, whereas increases in the latter will decrease it.
4. We argue that population models based on arithmetic mean population growth rates will tend to over-estimate population size. Numerical simulations indicate that this bias may be considerable.
5. Since short-term studies cannot, in general, estimate the geometric mean growth rate of a population we suggest several approaches for estimating the degree of bias in the predictions of models owing to the effects of variability. Accounting for such variability is necessary since current models for the dynamics of weed populations are based on arithmetic mean measures of population growth and hence likely to be biased.     

中国东部海岛森林和灌丛土壤碳氮磷养分库的纬度变化

虽然海岛结构相对简单,但在生物多样性和生态功能维持方面起重要作用.以中国东部暖温带、北亚热带、中亚热带和南亚热带的14个海岛为对象,研究森林土壤碳和氮磷养分库的纬度变化特征,并分析其与气候因子和植物多样性的关系.结果表明:土壤碳和氮磷养分库在温度带间差异显著,土壤碳库与氮库在暖温带最低,分别为49.35和1.08 t·hm^-2,在北亚热带最高,为137.25和4.63 t·hm^-2;磷库在南亚热带海岛最低,为1.3 t·hm^-2,在北亚热带最高,为5.19 t·hm^-2.各植被类型土壤碳氮磷库在不同温度带间存在显著差异,落叶林土壤碳氮磷库在亚热带高于暖温带;常绿阔叶林土壤碳和氮库不受温度带影响,磷库在北亚热带和中亚热带显著高于南亚热带.年均温、年降水量、土壤含水量和植物物种多样性间的交互作用对土壤碳氮磷库有显著正向影响;植物物种多样性对土壤氮库变化有正向影响,但对磷库具有负向影响.海岛森林土壤碳库的纬度变化趋势与大陆相反,土壤氮磷养分库变化格局与大陆相似;其中,水热和植物物种多样性是驱动中国东部海岛森林土壤碳氮磷库变化的主要非生物和生物因素.