Predicting when climate‐driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower‐level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life‐history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully‐parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate‐driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data‐deficient species.     

Adaptive divergence along environmental gradients in a climate‐change‐sensitive mammal

In the face of predicted climate change, a broader understanding of biotic responses to varying environments has become increasingly important within the context of biodiversity conservation. Local adaptation is one potential option, yet remarkably few studies have harnessed genomic tools to evaluate the efficacy of this response within natural populations. Here, we show evidence of selection driving divergence of a climate‐change‐sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps), distributed along elevation gradients at its northern range margin in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia (BC), Canada. We employed amplified‐fragment‐length‐polymorphism‐based genomic scans to conduct genomewide searches for candidate loci among populations inhabiting varying environments from sea level to 1500 m. Using several independent approaches to outlier locus detection, we identified 68 candidate loci putatively under selection (out of a total 1509 screened), 15 of which displayed significant associations with environmental variables including annual precipitation and maximum summer temperature. These candidate loci may represent important targets for predicting pika responses to climate change and informing novel approaches to wildlife conservation in a changing world.     

Species interactions weakly modify climate‐induced tree co‐occurrence patterns

Aims

Species distributions are hypothesized to be underlain by a complex association of processes that span multiple spatial scales including biotic interactions, dispersal limitation, fine‐scale resource gradients and climate. Species disequilibrium with climate may reflect the effects of non‐climatic processes on species distributions, yet distribution models have rarely directly considered non‐climatic processes. Here, we use a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM) to investigate the influence of non‐climatic factors on species co‐occurrence patterns and to directly quantify the relative influences of climate and alternative processes that may generate correlated responses in species distributions, such as species interactions, on tree co‐occurrence patterns.

Location

US Rocky Mountains.

Methods

We apply a Bayesian JSDM to simultaneously model the co‐occurrence patterns of ten dominant tree species across the Rocky Mountains, and evaluate climatic and residual correlations from the fitted model to determine the relative contribution of each component to observed co‐occurrence patterns. We also evaluate predictions generated from the fitted model relative to a single‐species modelling approach.

Results

For most species, correlation due to climate covariates exceeded residual correlation, indicating an overriding influence of broad‐scale climate on co‐occurrence patterns. Accounting for covariance among species did not significantly improve predictions relative to a single‐species approach, providing limited evidence for a strong independent influence of species interactions on distribution patterns.

Conclusions

Overall, our findings indicate that climate is an important driver of regional biodiversity patterns and that interactions between dominant tree species contribute little to explain species co‐occurrence patterns among Rocky Mountain trees.     

Modelling bioenergetic and population-level impacts of invasive bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) on native paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) in backwaters of the lower Mississippi River

1. While invasions of large rivers by exotic fish species are well documented, assessing actual or potential impacts on native species is a challenge. Rapid assessments may be possible through the application of a combination of bioenergetic and population dynamic models.
2. Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) is a native species in the central USA with a history of population decline due to waterway development and overharvesting for roe. It is not known whether paddlefish are impacted by resource competition from invasive bigheaded carp populations, including silver (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis), which have expanded dramatically in the Mississippi River.
3. We used bioenergetic models to project the potential impact of invasive silver and bighead carp on zooplankton density and paddlefish somatic growth in backwater habitat. Bioenergetic outputs were translated to impacts on fecundity, becoming inputs for 50-year metapopulation simulations of backwater habitat connected to the main-stem Mississippi River by episodic flood events.
4. Competition with carp reduced growth and increased the risk of population decline for paddlefish. Impacts increased disproportionately with increased carp abundance and were further exacerbated in scenarios with increased diet overlap or decreased zooplankton abundance.
5. We also analysed paddlefish condition data collected at sites near the lower Mississippi River with varying histories of carp invasion. These data give credence to the bioenergetic model output; paddlefish had reduced body condition at sites with long-established, high-density carp populations.
6. We conclude that invasive bigheaded carps have great potential to reduce paddlefish growth, fecundity, and abundance. The pairing of bioenergetics and population models is likely to be broadly useful in assessing the risks posed by other invasive species.

     

Evolutionary consequences of climate‐induced range shifts in insects

Range shifts can rapidly create new areas of geographic overlap between formerly allopatric taxa and evidence is accumulating that this can affect species persistence. We review the emerging literature on the short‐ and long‐term consequences of these geographic range shifts. Specifically, we focus on the evolutionary consequences of novel species interactions in newly created sympatric areas by describing the potential (i) short‐term processes acting on reproductive barriers between species and (ii) long‐term consequences of range shifts on the stability of hybrid zones, introgression and ultimately speciation and extinction rates. Subsequently, we (iii) review the empirical literature on insects to evaluate which processes have been studied, and (iv) outline some areas that deserve increased attention in the future, namely the genomics of hybridisation and introgression, our ability to forecast range shifts and the impending threat from insect vectors and pests on biodiversity, human health and crop production. Our review shows that species interactions in de novo sympatric areas can be manifold, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing species diversity. A key issue that emerges is that climate‐induced hybridisations in insects are much more widespread than anticipated and that rising temperatures and increased anthropogenic disturbances are accelerating the process of species mixing. The existing evidence only shows the tip of the iceberg and we are likely to see many more cases of species mixing following range shifts in the near future.     

Projected effects of Climate‐change‐induced flow alterations on stream macroinvertebrate abundances

Global change has the potential to affect river flow conditions which are fundamental determinants of physical habitats. Predictions of the effects of flow alterations on aquatic biota have mostly been assessed based on species ecological traits (e.g., current preferences), which are difficult to link to quantitative discharge data. Alternatively, we used empirically derived predictive relationships for species’ response to flow to assess the effect of flow alterations due to climate change in two contrasting central European river catchments. Predictive relationships were set up for 294 individual species based on (1) abundance data from 223 sampling sites in the Kinzig lower‐mountainous catchment and 67 sites in the Treene lowland catchment, and (2) flow conditions at these sites described by five flow metrics quantifying the duration, frequency, magnitude, timing and rate of flow events using present‐day gauging data. Species’ abundances were predicted for three periods: (1) baseline (1998–2017), (2) horizon 2050 (2046–2065) and (3) horizon 2090 (2080–2099) based on these empirical relationships and using high‐resolution modeled discharge data for the present and future climate conditions. We compared the differences in predicted abundances among periods for individual species at each site, where the percent change served as a proxy to assess the potential species responses to flow alterations. Climate change was predicted to most strongly affect the low‐flow conditions, leading to decreased abundances of species up to ?42%. Finally combining the response of all species over all metrics indicated increasing overall species assemblage responses in 98% of the studied river reaches in both projected horizons and were significantly larger in the lower‐mountainous Kinzig compared to the lowland Treene catchment. Such quantitative analyses of freshwater taxa responses to flow alterations provide valuable tools for predicting potential climate‐change impacts on species abundances and can be applied to any stressor, species, or region.     

Climate change‐induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China

Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.     

Climate‐driven vital rates do not always mean climate‐driven population

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate‐driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual‐based data on a trans‐equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large‐scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ_i, estimated using local climate‐driven parameters with ρ_i, a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ_i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate‐dependent parameters, ρ_i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate‐driven projections.     

Simulation of climate‐tick‐host‐landscape interactions: Effects of shifts in the seasonality of host population fluctuations on tick densities

Tick vector systems are comprised of complex climate‐tick‐host‐landscape interactions that are difficult to identify and estimate from empirical observations alone. We developed a spatially‐explicit, individual‐based model, parameterized to represent ecological conditions typical of the south‐central United States, to examine effects of shifts in the seasonal occurrence of fluctuations of host densities on tick densities. Simulated shifts in the seasonal occurrence of periods of high and low host densities affected both the magnitude of unfed tick densities and the seasonality of tick development. When shifting the seasonal densities of all size classes of hosts (small, medium, and large) synchronously, densities of nymphs were affected more by smaller shifts away from the baseline host seasonality than were densities of larval and adult life stages. When shifting the seasonal densities of only a single size‐class of hosts while holding other size classes at their baseline levels, densities of larval, nymph, and adult life stages responded differently. Shifting seasonal densities of any single host‐class earlier resulted in a greater increase in adult tick density than when seasonal densities of all host classes were shifted earlier simultaneously. The mean densities of tick life stages associated with shifts in host densities resulted from system‐level interactions of host availability with tick phenology. For example, shifting the seasonality of all hosts ten weeks earlier resulted in an approximately 30% increase in the relative degree of temporal co‐occurrence of actively host‐seeking ticks and hosts compared to baseline, whereas shifting the seasonality of all hosts ten weeks later resulted in an approximately 70% decrease compared to baseline. Differences among scenarios in the overall presence of active host‐seeking ticks in the system were due primarily to the degree of co‐occurrence of periods of high densities of unfed ticks and periods of high densities of hosts.     

Species diversity and population dynamics of rodents in a farm‐fallow field mosaic system in Central Tanzania

A Capture‐Mark‐Recapture study was undertaken in Central Tanzania to compare variations in community structure and population dynamics of rodents in two types of habitats. The study was conducted in fallow field mosaic habitat dominated by perennial and annual grasses (grid BEA) and a more heterogeneous habitat (grid BEB) which was previously woodland cleared of most trees with vegetation dominated by shrubs, bushes, scattered trees and perennial grass. The relative abundance of rodents in BEA was: Mastomys natalensis (73.5%) > Aethomys chrysophilus (8.9%) > Gerbilliscus vicina (7.3%) > Arvicanthis neumanni (6.1%) > Acomys spinosissimus (4.1%) and for grid BEB: M. natalensis (67.6%) > G. vicina (11.2%) > A. neumanni (10.3%) > A. chrysophilus (7.6%) > A. spinosissimus (2.9%). Graphiurus sp., Mus minutoides, Saccostomus mearnsi, Lemniscomys striatus and L. griselda were rare and only occasionally trapped in BEB. Spatial variations in population density were non‐significant except for A. chrysophilus. Significant temporal variations within grids were observed, with synchrony of population peaks for some species. The rare species boosted species richness of grid BEB rather artificially, without significantly contributing to higher species diversity. Temporal variations in Simpson’s Diversity indices between grids were non‐significant except for three out of twenty‐one trapping sessions.     

一种模拟昆虫种群动态的改进的变维矩阵模型

提出了一种模拟昆虫种群动态的改进的变维矩阵模型,该模型以发有历期为维数,采用分解与合成的方法变维,并考虑了个体间的发育差异。经模拟检验,模型模拟结果略优于徐汝梅等（1981）变维矩阵模型的结果。     

Assessing the importance of artificial nest‐sites in the population dynamics of endangered Northern Aplomado Falcons Falco femoralis septentrionalis in South Texas using stochastic simulation models

Habitat availability might be the most important determinant of success for a species reintroduction programme, making investigation of the quality and quantity of habitat needed to produce self‐sustaining populations a research priority for reintroduction ecologists. We used a stochastic model of population dynamics to predict whether attempts to improve existing breeding territories using artificial nest platforms improved the population growth rate and persistence of a reintroduced population of Northern Aplomado Falcons Falco femoralis septentrionalis in South Texas. We further assessed whether the creation of new territories, i.e. conversion of entire areas to suitable habitat and not simply the erection of nest platforms, would lead to a subsequent increase in the nesting population. Our model was able to reproduce several characteristics of the wild population and predicted the number of breeding pairs per year strikingly well (R² = 0.97). Simulations revealed that the addition of nest platforms improved productivity such that the population would decline to extinction without them but is stable since their installation. Moreover, the model predicted that the increase in productivity due to nest platforms would cause the population to saturate available breeding territories, at which point the population would contain a moderate proportion of non‐territorial birds that could occupy territories if new ones become available. Population size would therefore be proportional to the increase in available territories. Our study demonstrates that artificial nest‐sites can be an effective tool for the management of reintroduced species.     

Quantifying patch‐specific seed dispersal and local population dynamics to estimate population spread of an endangered plant species

AimHabitat loss and fragmentation impose high extinction risk upon endangered plant species globally. For many endangered plant species, as the remnant habitats become smaller and more fragmented, it is vital to estimate the population spread rate of small patches in order to effectively manage and preserve them for potential future range expansion. However, population spread rate has rarely been quantified at the patch level to inform conservation strategies and management decisions. To close this gap, we quantify the patch‐specific seed dispersal and local population dynamics of Minuartia smejkalii, which is a critically endangered plant species endemic in the Czech Republic and is of urgent conservation concern.LocationŽelivka and Hrnčíře, Czechia.MethodsWe conducted demographic analyses using population projection matrices with long‐term demographic data and used an analytic mechanistic dispersal model to simulate seed dispersal. We then used information on local population dynamics and seed dispersal to estimate the population spread rate and compared the relative contributions of seed dispersal and population growth rate to the population spread rate.ResultsWe found that although both seed dispersal and population growth rate in M. smejkalii were critically limited, the population spread rate depended more strongly on the maximal dispersal distance than on the population growth rate.Main conclusionsWe recommend conservationists to largely increase the dispersal distance of M. smejkalii. Generally, efforts made to increase seed dispersal ability could largely raise efficiency and effectiveness of conservation actions for critically endangered plant species.     

Ecosystem‐level effects of keystone species reintroduction: a literature review

The keystone species concept was introduced in 1969 in reference to top‐down regulation of communities by predators, but has expanded to include myriad species at different trophic levels. Keystone species play disproportionately large, important roles in their ecosystems, but human‐wildlife conflicts often drive population declines. Population declines have resulted in the necessity of keystone species reintroduction; however, studies of such reintroductions are rare. We conducted a literature review and found only 30 peer‐reviewed journal articles that assessed reintroduced populations of keystone species, and only 11 of these assessed ecosystem‐level effects following reintroduction. Nine of 11 publications assessing ecosystem‐level effects found evidence of resumption of keystone roles; however, these publications focus on a narrow range of species. We highlight the deficit of peer‐reviewed literature on keystone species reintroductions, and draw attention to the need for assessment of ecosystem‐level effects so that the presence, extent, and rate of ecosystem restoration driven by keystone species can be better understood.     

Feedbacks, thresholds and synergies in global change: population as a dynamic factor

The role of feedbacks, thresholds, and synergies in environmental science, and their implications for environmental degradation under a growing human population, are reviewed. A detailed analysis of the impacts of climate change on water resources is used to elucidate mechanisms by which nonlinearities arise in environmental science. Additional examples are drawn from analysis of soil degradation and non-climate related degradation of water resources. The often-assumed notion that impacts will grow in proportion to population size is shown to be overly optimistic. In particular, feedbacks, thresholds, and synergies among multiple threats, tend to amplify risk and cause environmental impacts to grow considerably faster than linearly in population size, even when the per-capita living standard and the technological systems deployed to achieve that living standard are assumed to remain constant.     

An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison sage‐grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data

Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large‐scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short‐term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage‐grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long‐term population index data available for Gunnison sage‐grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage‐grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.     

流苏石斛(Dendrobium fimbriatum)迁地保护种群的数量动态

运用静态生命表、生殖力表和Leslie矩阵模型,研究了保存于中国科学院西双版纳热带植物园兰科植物迁地保护区中的濒危物种流苏石斛种群数量动态过程,评价了流苏石斛的迁地保护效果.结果表明:迁地保护种群的年龄锥体为壶型锥体,种群的净增长率、内禀增长率和周限增长率较低,种群正处于下降态势;Leslie矩阵模型分析表明,在未来50年内,该种群各龄级的个体数及种群总数均表现出持续下降趋势.模型分析发现:1)迁地保护区模拟生境尽管适宜流苏石斛的生长,但由于附着在树上,中龄级个体先端产生的无性繁殖芽不能及时附着在附主上掉落死亡.因此,需要改善迁地保护区的生境条件,如增加岩石生境(流苏石斛野生种群几乎都是岩生的)使幼龄级个体脱落后能够顺利进入种群;2)种群下降的另一主要原因就是中龄级个体繁殖力太低.因此,建议加强对中龄级个体的管理提高繁殖能力以及深入研究实现种子的就地共生萌发,从根本上实现流苏石斛资源的保护.