一种模拟昆虫种群动态的改进的变维矩阵模型

提出了一种模拟昆虫种群动态的改进的变维矩阵模型,该模型以发有历期为维数,采用分解与合成的方法变维,并考虑了个体间的发育差异。经模拟检验,模型模拟结果略优于徐汝梅等（1981）变维矩阵模型的结果。     

Feedbacks, thresholds and synergies in global change: population as a dynamic factor

The role of feedbacks, thresholds, and synergies in environmental science, and their implications for environmental degradation under a growing human population, are reviewed. A detailed analysis of the impacts of climate change on water resources is used to elucidate mechanisms by which nonlinearities arise in environmental science. Additional examples are drawn from analysis of soil degradation and non-climate related degradation of water resources. The often-assumed notion that impacts will grow in proportion to population size is shown to be overly optimistic. In particular, feedbacks, thresholds, and synergies among multiple threats, tend to amplify risk and cause environmental impacts to grow considerably faster than linearly in population size, even when the per-capita living standard and the technological systems deployed to achieve that living standard are assumed to remain constant.     

Evaluation of the population dynamics of the forage legume (Lotus corniculatus), using matrix population models

The population dynamics of perennial crop plants are influenced by numerous factors, including management practices. Conditions in the field vary from year to year, and matrix population models are useful for evaluating population behaviour in relation to environmental variability. In Missouri, the stand persistence of birdsfoot trefoil ( Lotus corniculatus ), a perennial legume, is often limited by disease and poor seed production. A stage-based, matrix population model was developed to evaluate the population dynamics of birdsfoot trefoil in relation to clipping treatment. The plant growth stages represented in the model were seeds, seedlings, mature vegetative and reproductive plants. Two phases of population growth were evaluated in clipped and unclipped stands. Establishment-phase populations were characterized by relatively high mortality and low reproduction. Elasticity analysis indicated that growth of these populations was most sensitive to the survival of vegetative plants. Mature vegetative plants and seeds comprised the majority of surviving individuals in clipped and unclipped populations, respectively; however, establishment-phase populations under both management treatments tended toward extinction. Populations in the post-establishment phase of growth were characterized by relatively low mortality and high reproduction. Population growth in this phase of growth was most sensitive to seed production, and most individuals in these populations were at the seed stage.     

Future climate‐driven shifts in distribution of Calanus finmarchicus

Calanus finmarchicus is a key‐structural species of the North Atlantic polar biome. The species plays an important trophic role in subpolar and polar ecosystems as a grazer of phytoplankton and as a prey for higher trophic levels such as the larval stages of many fish species. Here, we used a recently developed ecological niche model to assess the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of C. finmarchicus and characterize its spatial distribution. This model explained about 65% of the total variance of the observed spatial distribution inferred from an independent dataset (data of the continuous plankton recorder survey). Comparisons with other types of models (structured population and ecophysiological models) revealed a clear similarity between modeled spatial distributions at the scale of the North Atlantic. Contemporary models coupled with future projections indicated a progressive reduction of the spatial habitat of the species at the southern edge and a more pronounced one in the Georges Bank, the Scotian Shelf and the North Sea and a potential increase in abundance at the northern edge of its spatial distribution, especially in the Barents Sea. These major changes will probably lead to a major alteration of the trophodynamics of North Atlantic ecosystems affecting the trophodynamics and the biological carbon pump.     

Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay

In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.     

An approach to the nonlinear dynamics of Russian wheat aphid population growth with the cusp catastrophe model

Many insect field populations, especially aphids, often exhibit irregular and even catastrophic fluctuations. The objective of the present study is to explore whether or not the population intrinsic rates of growth ( r _m) obtained under laboratory conditions can shed some light on the irregular changes of insect field populations. We propose to use the catastrophe theory, one of the earliest nonlinear dynamics theories, to answer the question. To collect the necessary data, we conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate population growth of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), in growth chambers. The experiment was designed as the factorial combinations of five temperatures and five host plant-growth stages (25 treatments in total): 1800 newly born RWA nymphs arranged in the 25 treatments (each treatment with 72 repetitions) were observed for their development, reproduction and survival through their entire lifetimes. After obtaining the population intrinsic rates of growth ( r _m) from the experimental data under various environmental conditions, we built a cusp catastrophe model for RWA population growth by utilizing r _m as the system state variable, and temperature and host plant-growth stage as control variables. The cusp catastrophe model suggests that RWA population growth is intrinsically catastrophic , and dramatic jumps from one state to another might occur even if the temperature and plant-growth stage change smoothly . Other basic behaviors of the cusp catastrophe model, such as catastrophic jumps , hystersis and divergence , are also expected in RWA populations. These results suggest that the answer to the previously proposed question should be yes.     

European rabbit population trends and associated factors: a review of the situation in the Iberian Peninsula

• 1 European rabbits are considered a keystone species in the Iberian Peninsula. Their populations have sharply declined over the past century, mainly due to habitat loss and the arrival of two viral diseases: myxomatosis in the 1950s and rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) at the end of the 1980s. For the conservation of the Iberian Mediterranean ecosystem, it is important to determine whether rabbit populations are recovering two decades after the RHD outbreak, and to identify the factors associated with population recovery.
• 2 Here, we review the current knowledge on recent rabbit population trends in the Iberian Peninsula and the factors associated with these trends.
• 3 Although most rabbit populations are still declining in the Iberian Peninsula, a few seem to have recovered. In general, positive trends have been recorded in species‐friendly habitats characterized by non‐fragmented landscapes, interspersed patches of Mediterranean scrubland, good pastures and/or crops, soft soils that are suitable for warren construction and a Mediterranean climate with relatively high rainfall. Additionally, rabbits seem to be recovering better in areas where management practices (e.g. low hunting pressure, habitat management and predator control) are applied to increase their numbers.
• 4 From these findings, it is possible to identify five broad objectives for rabbit conservation in the Iberian Peninsula. First, it is clearly necessary to establish a long‐term programme for monitoring rabbit abundance and trends on a large scale. Second, the conservation and restoration of open Mediterranean scrubland should be a priority for stabilizing and maintaining existing healthy rabbit populations. Third, despite the lack of experimental evidence, management activities aimed at increasing the quantity and quality of both refuge and food should continue to be implemented. Fourth, legislation on the timing of the hunting season should be revisited following recommendations made by scientists. Finally, experimental approaches are required to investigate whether the control of generalist predators is a successful strategy to allow rabbit populations to recover.

     

Benthic–pelagic coupling in the population dynamics of the harmful cyanobacterium Microcystis

1. In eutrophic lakes, large amounts of the cyanobacterium Microcystis may overwinter in the sediment and re‐inoculate the water column in spring. 2. We monitored changes in pelagic and benthic populations of Microcystis in Lake Volkerak, The Netherlands. In addition, sedimentation rates and the rate of recruitment from the sediment were measured using traps. These data were used to model the coupling between the benthic and pelagic populations and to calculate the contribution of overwintering benthic and pelagic populations to the magnitude of the pelagic summer bloom. 3. Changes in the benthic Microcystis population showed a time lag of 3–14 weeks compared with the pelagic population. This time lag increased with lake depth. The largest amount of benthic Microcystis was found in the deepest parts of the lake. These observations suggest horizontal transport of sedimented Microcystis from shallow to deep parts of the lake. 4. Recruitment from and sedimentation to the sediment occurred throughout the year, with highest recruitment and sedimentation rates during summer. Model simulations indicate that the absence of benthic recruitment would reduce the summer bloom by 50%. 5. In spring, the total pelagic population was three to six times smaller than the total benthic population. Yet, model simulations predict that the absence of this small overwintering pelagic population would reduce the summer bloom by more than 64%. 6. Reduction of the overwintering pelagic populations, for instance by flushing, may be a useful management strategy to suppress or at least delay summer blooms of Microcystis.     

Modelling population exposure-response functions for use in environmental risk assessment

Effective environmental management requires accurate prediction of the probable individual, population, and ecosystem responses associated with environmental hazards. While much is known about the short-term physiological impacts of toxicants at the individual level, little is known about the long-term responses of populations. This occurs, in part, because of the costs and difficulties associated with completing long-term studies. In the absence of such field data it is argued that modelling both bridges the existing information gap and provides a credible means of predicting long-term population responses. An individuals-based Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population dynamics model, adjusted to include laboratory-derived acute toxicity data, is used to measure recovery time in a population subjected to concentrations and durations of copper exposure characteristic of an accidental release of mine tailings. Selected recovery criteria are proposed and discussed in terms of their suitability for use in environmental risk assessment. The resulting model data are used to estimate population exposure-response functions and, for purposes of environmental risk assessment, to describe the cumulative probability distribution ofin-situ environmental damage. The output of the model suggests a recovery time of 15 to 20 years and significant increases in the variability of post-perturbation population levels.     

Density-dependent population dynamics in clonal organisms: a modelling approach

1. Density dependence may act at several stages in an organisms life-cycle (e.g. on mortality, fecundity, etc.), but not all density-dependent processes necessarily regulate population size. In this paper I use a density manipulation experiment to determine the effects of density on the transition rates between different size classes of the clonal zoanthid Palythoa caesia Dana 1846. I then formulate a density-dependent matrix model of population dynamics of Palythoa , and perform a series of sensitivity analyses on the model to determine at what stage in the life-cycle regulation acts.
2. Seven of the 16 transition probabilities decreased with density, most of them being shrinkage (due to loss of tissue or fission) and stasis (the self–self transition) of medium and large colonies. The only probability to increase was for the stasis of large colonies. Recruitment was quadratically dependent on density, peaking at intermediate densities.
3. Equilibrium cover in the model was 84% and was reached in ≈40 years. To determine which density-dependent transitions were involved in population regulation, the strength of density dependence was varied in each independently. This sensitivity analysis showed that only changes in the probabilities of large colonies remaining large and producing medium colonies, were regulating.
4. These results suggest that regulation is primarily acting on fission of large colonies to produce intermediate-sized colonies, in combination with size specific growth rates. Fission rates decrease greatly with density, resulting in a greater proportion of large colonies at high densities and large colonies grow more slowly than small. Overall, this behaviour is very similar to that of clonal plants which have a phalanx type life history.     

Effects of density dependent sex allocation on the dynamics of a simultaneous hermaphroditic population: Modelling and analysis

In this work we present a mathematical model describing the dynamics of a population where sex allocation remains flexible throughout adult life and so can be adjusted to current environmental conditions. We consider that the fractions of immature individuals acquiring male and female sexual roles are density dependent through nonlinear functions of a weighted total population size. The main goal of this work is to understand the role of life-history parameters on the stabilization or destabilization of the population dynamics.The model turns out to be a nonlinear discrete model which is analysed by studying the existence of fixed points as well as their stability conditions in terms of model parameters. The existence of more complex asymptotic behaviours of system solutions is shown by means of numerical simulations.Females have larger fertility rate than males. On the other hand, increasing population density favours immature individuals adopting the male role. A positive equilibrium of the system exists whenever fertility and survival rates of one of the sexual roles, if shared by all adults, allow population growing while the opposite happens with the other sexual role. In terms of the female inherent net reproductive number, η_F, it is shown that the positive equilibria are stable when η_F is larger and closed to 1 while for larger values of η_F a certain asymptotic assumption on the investment rate in the female function implies that the population density is permanent. Depending on the other parameters values, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions becomes more complex, even chaotic. In this setting the stabilization/destabilization effects of the abruptness rate in density dependence, of the survival rates and of the competition coefficients are analysed.     

Imaging of the DNA damage‐induced dynamics of nuclear proteins via nonlinear photoperturbation

Understanding the cellular response to DNA strand breaks is crucial to decipher the mechanisms maintaining the integrity of our genome. We present a novel method to visualize how the mobility of nuclear proteins changes in response to localized DNA damage. DNA strand breaks are induced via nonlinear excitation with femtosecond laser pulses at λ = 1050 nm in a 3D‐confined subnuclear volume. After a time delay of choice, protein mobility within this volume is analysed by two‐photon photoactivation of PA‐GFP fusion proteins at λ = 775 nm. By changing the position of the photoactivation spot with respect to the zone of lesion the influence of chromatin structure and of the distance from damage are investigated. As first applications we demonstrate a locally confined, time‐dependent mobility increase of histone H1.2, and a progressive retardation of the DNA repair factor XRCC1 at damaged sites. This assay can be used to map the response of nuclear proteins to DNA damage in time and space. (© 2013 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A life‐history perspective on the demographic drivers of structured population dynamics in changing environments

Current understanding of life‐history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non‐stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics.     

Modelling the effect of treatment and behavioral change in HIV transmission dynamics

In this paper we analyze a model for the HIV-infection transmission in a male homosexual population. In the model we consider two types of infected individuals. Those that are infected but do not know their serological status and/or are not under any sort of clinical /therapeutical treatment, and those who are. The two groups of infectives differ in their incubation time, contact rate with susceptible individuals, and probability of disease transmission. The aim of this article is to study the roles played by detection and changes in sexual behavior in the incidence and prevalence of HIV. The analytical results show that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable under a range of parameter values whenever a detection /treatment rate and an indirect measure of the level of infection risk are sufficiently large. However, any level of detection/ treatment rate coupled with a decrease of the transmission probability lowers the incidence rate and prevalence level in the population. In general, only significant reductions in the transmission probability (achieved through, for example, the adoption of safe sexual practices) can contain effectively the spread of the disease.     

Time series analysis of climate‐related factors and their impact on a red‐listed noble crayfish population in northern Sweden

1. Global climate change is predicted to raise water temperatures and alter flow regimes in northern river systems. Climate‐related factors might have profound impacts on survival, reproduction and distribution of freshwater species such as red‐listed noble crayfish (Astacus astacus) in its northern limit of distribution. 2. In this study, noble crayfish capture data over 27 years from the River Ljungan, Sweden, were examined. Time series of catch per unit effort (CPUE) were analysed in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, regional weather factors and water flow. CPUE was assumed to reflect differences in population size. Two models were constructed to explore the relative impact of different climate factors and density dependence on variability of catch sizes. 3. The most parsimonious model for CPUE time series, explaining 72% of the variance in CPUE, included density‐dependent population dynamics of the crayfish and climate or weather factors. The specific effect from density dependence in the model was 37%, while climate/weather factors contributed with 35% of the variation. The most important climate/weather factors are variations in NAO index and water flow. Temperature did not improve the model fit to capture data. 4. The best model was evaluated using independent data sets that gave correlations between model predictions and data ranging from 0.44 to 0.53. The density dependence shows a time lag of 1 year, while climate variables show time lags from 2 to 6 years in relation to CPUE, indicating effects on different cohorts of the crayfish population. 5. Both density dependence and climatic factors play a significant role in population fluctuations of noble crayfish. A 6‐year time lag for NAO index is puzzling but indicates that some as yet unidentified factors related to NAO might act on the juvenile stages of the population. Water flow shows a 2‐year lag to the CPUE, and high flow in the river may affect adult survival. The reasons for fluctuation of crayfish catches in response to climate need to be identified, and fishing quotas should consider the different cohort sizes because of variation in environment. Reintroduction programmes for crayfish need to consider effects of climate change when designing management strategies.     

Inbreeding variability and population structure in the invasive haplodiploid palm‐seed borer (Coccotrypes dactyliperda)

We investigated the mating system and population genetic structure of the invasive haplodiploid palm‐seed borer Coccotrypes dactyliperda in California. We focused on whether these primarily inbreeding beetles have a ‘mixed‐breeding’ system that includes occasional outbreeding, and whether local inbreeding coefficients (F_IS) varied with dominant environmental factors. We also analysed the genetic structure of C. dactyliperda populations across local and regional scales. Based on the analysis of genetic variation at seven microsatellite loci in 1034 individual beetles from 59 populations, we found both high rates of inbreeding and plentiful evidence of mixed‐breeding. F_IS ranged from ?0.56 to 0.90, the highest variability reported within any animal species. There was a negative correlation between F_IS and latitude, suggesting that some latitude‐associated factor affecting mating decisions influenced inbreeding rates. Multiple regressions suggested that precipitation, but not temperature, may be an important correlate. Finally, we found highly significant genetic differentiation among sites, even over short geographic distances (< 1000 m).