Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries

Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters (subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted (negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence (in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.     

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs

Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life‐history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the ‘no effective mitigation’ representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.     

Climate‐driven increases in storm frequency simplify kelp forest food webs

Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the annual frequency and severity of extreme weather events during the next century. Here we show that increases in the annual frequency of severe storms lead to a decrease in the diversity and complexity of food webs of giant kelp forests, one of the most productive habitats on Earth. We demonstrate this by linking natural variation in storms with measured changes in kelp forest food web structure in the Santa Barbara Channel using structural equation modeling (SEM). We then match predictions from statistical models to results from a multiyear kelp removal experiment designed to simulate frequent large storms. Both SEM models and experiments agree: if large storms remain at their current annual frequency (roughly one major kelp‐removing storm every 3.5 years), periodic storms help maintain the complexity of kelp forest food webs. However, if large storms increase in annual frequency and begin to occur year after year, kelp forest food webs become less diverse and complex as species go locally extinct. The loss of complexity occurs primarily due to decreases in the diversity and complexity of higher trophic levels. Our findings demonstrate that shifts in climate‐driven disturbances that affect foundation species are likely to have impacts that cascade through entire ecosystems.     

Climate change alters stability and species potential interactions in a large marine ecosystem

We have little empirical evidence of how large‐scale overlaps between large numbers of marine species may have altered in response to human impacts. Here, we synthesized all available distribution data (>1 million records) since 1992 for 61 species of the East Australian marine ecosystem, a global hot spot of ocean warming and continuing fisheries exploitation. Using a novel approach, we constructed networks of the annual changes in geographical overlaps between species. Using indices of changes in species overlap, we quantified changes in the ecosystem stability, species robustness, species sensitivity and structural keystone species. We then compared the species overlap indices with environmental and fisheries data to identify potential factors leading to the changes in distributional overlaps between species. We found that the structure of the ecosystem has changed with a decrease in asymmetrical geographical overlaps between species. This suggests that the ecosystem has become less stable and potentially more susceptible to environmental perturbations. Most species have shown a decrease in overlaps with other species. The greatest decrease in species overlap robustness and sensitivity to the loss of other species has occurred in the pelagic community. Some demersal species have become more robust and less sensitive. Pelagic structural keystone species, predominately the tunas and billfish, have been replaced by demersal fish species. The changes in species overlap were strongly correlated with regional oceanographic changes, in particular increasing ocean warming and the southward transport of warmer and saltier water with the East Australian Current, but less correlated with fisheries catch. Our study illustrates how large‐scale multispecies distribution changes can help identify structural changes in marine ecosystems associated with climate change.     

Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.     

A global synthesis of climate vulnerability assessments on marine fisheries: Methods,scales, and knowledge co-production

Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social–ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low-income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalog (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data-limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co-production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions.     

Future climate‐driven shifts in distribution of Calanus finmarchicus

Calanus finmarchicus is a key‐structural species of the North Atlantic polar biome. The species plays an important trophic role in subpolar and polar ecosystems as a grazer of phytoplankton and as a prey for higher trophic levels such as the larval stages of many fish species. Here, we used a recently developed ecological niche model to assess the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of C. finmarchicus and characterize its spatial distribution. This model explained about 65% of the total variance of the observed spatial distribution inferred from an independent dataset (data of the continuous plankton recorder survey). Comparisons with other types of models (structured population and ecophysiological models) revealed a clear similarity between modeled spatial distributions at the scale of the North Atlantic. Contemporary models coupled with future projections indicated a progressive reduction of the spatial habitat of the species at the southern edge and a more pronounced one in the Georges Bank, the Scotian Shelf and the North Sea and a potential increase in abundance at the northern edge of its spatial distribution, especially in the Barents Sea. These major changes will probably lead to a major alteration of the trophodynamics of North Atlantic ecosystems affecting the trophodynamics and the biological carbon pump.     

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species'' ecology. We couple a physical–biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30–60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28–89%.     

Body size‐dependent responses of a marine fish assemblage to climate change and fishing over a century‐long scale

Commercial fishing and climate change have influenced the composition of marine fish assemblages worldwide, but we require a better understanding of their relative influence on long‐term changes in species abundance and body‐size distributions. In this study, we investigated long‐term (1911–2007) variability within a demersal fish assemblage in the western English Channel. The region has been subject to commercial fisheries throughout most of the past century, and has undergone interannual changes in sea temperature of over 2.0 °C. We focussed on a core 30 species that comprised 99% of total individuals sampled in the assemblage. Analyses showed that temporal trends in the abundance of smaller multispecies size classes followed thermal regime changes, but that there were persistent declines in abundance of larger size classes. Consistent with these results, larger‐growing individual species had the greatest declines in body size, and the most constant declines in abundance, while abundance changes of smaller‐growing species were more closely linked to preceding sea temperatures. Together these analyses are suggestive of dichotomous size‐dependent responses of species to long‐term climate change and commercial fishing over a century scale. Small species had rapid responses to the prevailing thermal environment, suggesting their life history traits predisposed populations to respond quickly to changing climates. Larger species declined in abundance and size, reflecting expectations from sustained size‐selective overharvesting. These results demonstrate the importance of considering species traits when developing indicators of human and climatic impacts on marine fauna.     

Managing consequences of climate‐driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology,conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well‐being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human‐centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.     

Trade‐offs for food production,nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential

Large‐scale biomass plantations (BPs) are a common factor in climate mitigation scenarios as they promise double benefits: extracting carbon from the atmosphere and providing a renewable energy source. However, their terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potentials depend on important factors such as land availability, efficiency of capturing biomass‐derived carbon and the timing of operation. Land availability is restricted by the demands of future food production depending on yield increases and population growth, by requirements for nature conservation and, with respect to climate mitigation, avoiding unfavourable albedo changes. We integrate these factors in one spatially explicit biogeochemical simulation framework to explore the tCDR opportunity space on land available after these constraints are taken into account, starting either in 2020 or 2050, and lasting until 2100. We find that assumed future needs for nature protection and food production strongly limit tCDR potentials. BPs on abandoned crop and pasture areas (~1,300 Mha in scenarios of either 8.0 billion people and yield gap reductions of 25% until 2020 or 9.5 billion people and yield gap reductions of 50% until 2050) could, theoretically, sequester ~100 GtC in land carbon stocks and biomass harvest by 2100. However, this potential would be ~80% lower if only cropland was available or ~50% lower if albedo decreases were considered as a factor restricting land availability. Converting instead natural forest, shrubland or grassland into BPs could result in much larger tCDR potentials ? but at high environmental costs (e.g. biodiversity loss). The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tCDR.     

Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning.     

Climate change–contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change‐associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change–contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change–contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat‐soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein‐binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change–contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision‐making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants.     

Effects of an invasive crayfish on trophic relationships in north‐temperate lake food webs

1. The introduction of invasive species is one of the main threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecosystem processes. In freshwaters, invasive crayfish alter macroinvertebrate community structure and destroy macrophyte beds. There is limited knowledge on how such invasive species‐driven changes affect consumers at higher trophic levels. 2. In this study, we explore how the invasive rusty crayfish Orconectes rusticus, a benthic omnivore, affects benthic macroinvertebrates, as well as the broader consequences for ecosystem‐level trophic flows in terms of fish benthivory and trophic position (TP). We expected crayfish to decrease abundance of benthic macroinvertebrates, making most fish species less reliant on benthic resources. We expected crayfish specialists (e.g. Lepomis sp. and Micropterus sp.) to increase their benthic dependence. 3. In 10 northern Wisconsin lakes, we measured rusty crayfish relative abundance (catch per unit effort, CPUE), macroinvertebrate abundance, and C and N stable isotope ratios of 11 littoral fish species. We used stable isotope data and mixing models to characterise the trophic pathways supporting each fish species, and related trophic structure to crayfish relative abundance, fish body size and abiotic predictors using hierarchical Bayesian models. 4. Benthic invertebrate abundance was negatively correlated with rusty crayfish relative abundance. Fish benthivory increased with crayfish CPUE for all 11 fish species; posterior probabilities of a positive effect were >95%. TP also increased slightly with crayfish CPUE for some species, particularly smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, rock bass and Johnny darter. Moreover, both fish body size and lake abiotic variables explained variation in TP, while their effects on benthivory were small. 5. Rusty crayfish abundance explained relatively little of the overall variation in fish benthivory and TP. Although rusty crayfish appear to have strong effects on abundances of benthic macroinvertebrates, energy flow pathways and trophic niches of lentic fishes were not strongly influenced by invasive rusty crayfish.     

Pelagic food webs: Responses to environmental processes and effects on the environment

Changes in both the environment and environmental research have led to the development of new protocols and approaches. These new approaches consider both the effects of changes in the global environment on living organisms (i.e. the responses of ecosystems to environmental processes) and the feedback responses of these organisms and ecosystems (i.e. the effects of living organisms on the environment). The present paper focuses on pelagic food webs in aquatic ecosystems. We examine three major effects of global environmental changes on aquatic organisms: (i) the release of pollutants and biological agents in lakes and nearshore marine waters; (ii) the loss of biodiversity and the collapse of commercially exploited resources that were heretofore renewable. We develop detailed examples of the effects of human activities on marine organisms (i.e. the effects of nutrient supply on the structure of pelagic food webs in marine systems. Finally, we examine (iii) the food-web-controlled exchanges of CO₂ between the atmosphere and the ocean, as a feedback effect of pelagic ecosystems on the global environment with respect to the ongoing climate change.     

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.     

Global change‐driven effects on dissolved organic matter composition: Implications for food webs of northern lakes

Northern ecosystems are experiencing some of the most dramatic impacts of global change on Earth. Rising temperatures, hydrological intensification, changes in atmospheric acid deposition and associated acidification recovery, and changes in vegetative cover are resulting in fundamental changes in terrestrial–aquatic biogeochemical linkages. The effects of global change are readily observed in alterations in the supply of dissolved organic matter (DOM)—the messenger between terrestrial and lake ecosystems—with potentially profound effects on the structure and function of lakes. Northern terrestrial ecosystems contain substantial stores of organic matter and filter or funnel DOM, affecting the timing and magnitude of DOM delivery to surface waters. This terrestrial DOM is processed in streams, rivers, and lakes, ultimately shifting its composition, stoichiometry, and bioavailability. Here, we explore the potential consequences of these global change‐driven effects for lake food webs at northern latitudes. Notably, we provide evidence that increased allochthonous DOM supply to lakes is overwhelming increased autochthonous DOM supply that potentially results from earlier ice‐out and a longer growing season. Furthermore, we assess the potential implications of this shift for the nutritional quality of autotrophs in terms of their stoichiometry, fatty acid composition, toxin production, and methylmercury concentration, and therefore, contaminant transfer through the food web. We conclude that global change in northern regions leads not only to reduced primary productivity but also to nutritionally poorer lake food webs, with discernible consequences for the trophic web to fish and humans.     

Temperature‐driven coral decline: the role of marine protected areas

Warming ocean temperatures are considered to be an important cause of the degradation of the world's coral reefs. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as one tool to increase coral reef ecosystem resistance and resilience (i.e. recovery) to the negative effects of climate change, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in achieving these goals. We used a high resolution 4 km global temperature anomaly database from 1985–2005 and 8040 live coral cover surveys on protected and unprotected reefs to determine whether or not MPAs have been effective in mitigating temperature‐driven coral loss. Generally, protection in MPAs did not reduce the effect of warm temperature anomalies on coral cover declines. Shortcomings in MPA design, including size and placement, may have contributed to the lack of an MPA effect. Empirical studies suggest that corals that have been previously exposed to moderate levels of thermal stress have greater adaptive capacity and resistance to future thermal stress events. Existing MPAs protect relatively fewer reefs with moderate anomaly frequencies, potentially reducing their effectiveness. However, our results also suggest that the benefits from MPAs may not be great enough to offset the magnitude of losses from acute thermal stress events. Although MPAs are important conservation tools, their limitations in mitigating coral loss from acute thermal stress events suggest that they need to be complemented with policies aimed at reducing the activities responsible for climate change.