Safeguarding sloths and anteaters in the future: Priority areas for conservation under climate change

Sloths and anteaters form the monophyletic order Pilosa, which is currently represented by only 16 extant species distributed exclusively in the Neotropics. This present-day low species richness is an inheritance of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, where over 65 Pilosa species known from the fossil record went extinct. The large number of species lost in the recent past suggests that this group is greatly vulnerable to extinction. Here, we propose long-term priority conservation areas for the order Pilosa, considering different future climate change scenarios, biotic stability, and the multiple dimensions of the group's biodiversity, such as species richness, species endemism, and phylogenetic diversity. Projections of species distribution for future scenarios show increased fragmentation and clear habitat loss as the Amazon Forest is replaced by savanna-like habitats. Conservation solutions were highly congruent for the different dimensions of biodiversity, with priority areas emerging mainly in the Atlantic Forest, Amazonian wetlands, highlands of Ecuador, and the Central American isthmus. Expanding the currently protected areas network by 6% with the proposed priority areas, independently of which future climatic scenario is considered, can increase sloths and anteaters' coverage in the future by 12%. As a group of high phylogenetic and ecological importance, future conservation planning should deliberately aim to protect areas favorable to Pilosa, especially given the current scenario of environmental dismantling and neglect of critical Neotropical biomes.     

The shaping of genetic variation in edge‐of‐range populations under past and future climate change

With rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo‐modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model‐based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading‐edge populations for spearheading future range shifts.     

Range expansion,habitat use,and choosiness in a butterfly under climate change: Marginality and tolerance of oviposition site selection

Poleward range shifts under climate change involve the colonization of new sites and hence the foundation of new populations at the expanding edge. We studied oviposition site selection in a butterfly under range expansion (Lycaena dispar), a key process for the establishment of new populations. We described and compared the microhabitats used by the species for egg laying with those available across the study sites both in edge and in core populations. We carried out an ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) to estimate (1) the variety of microhabitats used by the butterfly for egg laying (tolerance) and (2) the extent to which these selected microhabitats deviated from those available (marginality). Microhabitat availability was similar in edge and core populations. Ambient temperature recorded at the site level above the vegetation was on average lower at core populations. In contrast with what is often assumed, edge populations did not have narrower microhabitat use compared to core populations. Females in edge populations even showed a higher degree of generalism: They laid eggs under a wider range of microhabitats. We suggest that this pattern could be related to an overrepresentation of fast deciding personalities in edge populations. We also showed that the thermal time window for active female behavior was reduced in edge populations, which could significantly decrease the time budget for oviposition and decrease the threshold of acceptance during microhabitat selection for oviposition in recently established populations.     

Effects of temperature and elevation on habitat use by a rare mountain butterfly: implications for species responses to climate change

Abstract 1. The present study used the mountain specialist butterfly Parnassius apollo as a model system to investigate how climate change may alter habitat requirements for species at their warm range margins. 2. Larval habitat use was recorded in six P. apollo populations over a 700 m elevation gradient in the Sierra de Guadarrama (central Spain). Larvae used four potential host species (Sedum spp.) growing in open areas amongst shrubs. 3. Parnassius apollo host‐plant and habitat use changed as elevation increased: the primary host shifted from Sedum amplexicaule to Sedum brevifolium, and larvae selected more open microhabitats (increased bare ground and dead vegetation, reduced vegetation height and shrub cover), suggesting that hotter microhabitats are used in cooler environments. 4. Larval microhabitat selection was significantly related to ambient temperature. At temperatures lower than 27 °C, larvae occupied open microhabitats that were warmer than ambient temperature, versus more shaded microhabitats that were cooler than ambient conditions when temperature was higher than 27 °C. 5. Elevational changes in phenology influenced the temperatures experienced by larvae, and could affect local host‐plant favourability. 6. Habitat heterogeneity appears to play an important role in P. apollo larval thermoregulation, and may become increasingly important in buffering populations of this and other insect species against climatic variation.     

Cool shade and not-so-cool shade: How habitat loss may accelerate thermal stress under current and future climate

Worldwide habitat loss, land-use changes, and climate change threaten biodiversity, and we urgently need models that predict the combined impacts of these threats on organisms. Current models, however, overlook microhabitat diversity within landscapes and so do not accurately inform conservation efforts, particularly for ectotherms. Here, we built and field-parameterized a model to examine the effects of habitat loss and climate change on activity and microhabitat selection by a diurnal desert lizard. Our model predicted that lizards in rock-free areas would reduce summer activity levels (e.g. foraging, basking) and that future warming will gradually decrease summer activity in rocky areas, as even large rocks become thermally stressful. Warmer winters will enable more activity but will require bushes and small rocks as shade retreats. Hence, microhabitats that may seem unimportant today will become important under climate change. Modelling frameworks should consider the microhabitat requirements of organisms to improve conservation outcomes.     

Using presence‐only modelling to predict Asian elephant habitat use in a tropical forest landscape: implications for conservation

Aim Asian elephants, Elephas maximus, are threatened throughout their range by a combination of logging, large scale forest conversion and conflict with humans. We investigate which environmental factors, both biotic and abiotic, constrain the current distribution of elephants. A spatially explicit habitat model is constructed to find core areas for conservation and to assess current threats. Location Ulu Masen Ecosystem in the province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia. Methods A stratified survey was conducted at 12 sites (300 transects) to establish the presence of elephants. Presence records formed the basis to model potential habitat use. Ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) is used to describe their niche and to identify key factors shaping elephant distribution. An initial niche model was constructed to describe elephant niche structure, and a second model focused on identifying core areas only. To assess the threat of habitat encroachment, overlap between the elephants’ optimal niche and the occurrence of forest encroachment is computed. Results Elephants were recorded throughout the study area from sea level to 1600 m a.s.l. The results show that the elephant niche and consequently habitat use markedly deviates from the available environment. Elephant presence was positively related to forest cover and vegetation productivity, and elephants were largely confined to valleys. A spatially explicit model showed that elephants mainly utilize forest edges. Forest encroachment occurs throughout the elephants range and was found within 80% of the elephants’ ecological niche. Main conclusions In contrast to general opinion, elephant distribution proved to be weakly constrained by altitude, possibly because of movement routes running through mountainous areas. Elephants were often found to occupy habitat patches in and near human‐dominated areas. This pattern is believed to reflect the displacement of elephants from their former habitat.     

Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change

Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds (AIWs) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIWs from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with occurrence records and developed ecological niche models with Maxent. Interestingly, the climatic niches of all eight AIWs diverged significantly between the native and invasive ranges (the American continent and China). Furthermore, the AIWs showed larger climatic niche breadths in the invasive ranges than in the native ranges. Our results suggest that climatic niche shifts between native and invasive ranges occurred. Thus, the occurrence records of both native and invasive regions must be considered when modeling and predicting the spatial distributions of AIWs under current and future climate scenarios. Owing to high habitat suitability, AIWs were more likely to expand into regions of low latitude, and future climate change was predicted to result in a shift in the AIWs in Qinghai and Tibet (regions of higher altitude) as well as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu (regions of higher latitude). Our results suggest that we need measures to prevent and control AIW expansion at the country‐wide level.     

Annual climate in Mexican Spotted Owl habitat in the Sacramento Mountains,New Mexico: implications for responding to climate change

Global climate change presents a growing conservation threat, but our understanding of the effects of climate change remains limited for most species. We evaluated the annual climate cycle for threatened Mexican Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis lucida) in high-elevation mixed-conifer forests in the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico from 2005 to 2010. We used data from a network of weather stations in Mexican Spotted Owl habitat to describe annual temperature cycles, and precipitation data from a National Weather Service weather station to describe the annual precipitation cycle. We coupled these data with equations from the literature to estimate annual cycles in resting metabolic rate and evaporative water loss, and evaluated the potential effects of a warming climate on these parameters. Annual weather was characterized by cold, dry winters, warmer and dry springs, warm and wet summers, and cool and relatively wet falls. Ambient temperature never exceeded the upper critical temperature for Mexican Spotted Owls (35.2°C), but > 90% of 663,422 hourly temperature observations were below the lower critical temperature (18.2°C). Thus, heat stress was not predicted to occur, but owls likely expended energy on thermoregulation at low temperatures. Resting energy use peaked during winter (December–February) and was lowest when owls would be feeding young (May–August). In contrast, evaporative water loss peaked from June to August, when precipitation also peaked. Mexican Spotted Owls generally appeared well-adapted to the current climate cycle in our montane study area, but late winter (February–March) may be a critical period in terms of energy requirements, and late spring (April–May) may be critical in terms of water relationships. Predicted changes in temperature through 2099 would result in reductions in predicted energy use by Mexican Spotted Owls, but increases in predicted water use. Water relationships may become increasingly important for Mexican Spotted Owls in the face of climate change, especially in warmer and drier areas. In forested areas, retaining patches of older forest with high canopy cover in cool, mesic sites may provide continued benefits to Mexican Spotted Owls under climate change.     

Ecosystem‐based management of coral reefs under climate change

Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land‐use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO₂ emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem‐based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change‐ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human‐assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change‐ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long‐term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.     

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well‐documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst‐case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.     

Temporal plasticity in thermal‐habitat selection of burbot Lota lota a diel‐migrating winter‐specialist

In this study, animal‐borne telemetry with temperature sensors was coupled with extensive habitat temperature monitoring in a dimictic reservoir, to test the following hypotheses: behavioural thermoregulation occurs throughout the year and temperature selection varies on a diel and seasonal basis, in a winter‐specialist diel‐migrating fish. Burbot Lota lota demonstrated nightly behavioural thermoregulation throughout the year, with a large seasonal shift between selection for very cold temperatures (<2° C) optimal for reproduction during the spawning period and selection for warmer temperatures (12–14° C) optimal for hunting and feeding during non‐reproductive periods. During daylight hours, while L. lota avoided habitats warmer than optimal for reproduction and feeding during the spawning and non‐reproductive periods, respectively, active selection was limited to selection for 4–6° C habitat during the prespawning period. Although behavioural thermoregulation explained the night‐time migration, behavioural thermoregulation only partially explained daytime behaviour, indicating that diel migration is best explained by a combination of factors. Thus, thermal‐habitat selection was a good predictor of night‐time habitat occupancy in a diel‐migrating species. Together, these results show that thermal‐habitat selection by fishes may be important throughout the year and a more seasonally plastic behaviour than previously recognized.     

Towards a resource‐based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector‐borne disease risks

Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector‐borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional habitat of vectors or hosts, and hence of the pathogen. Empirical–statistical methods do not explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms, whereas current mechanistic models are rarely spatially explicit; both methods ignore the way animals use the landscape (i.e. movement ecology). We argue that applying a functional concept for habitat, i.e. the resource‐based habitat concept (RBHC), can solve these issues. The RBHC offers a framework to identify systematically the different ecological resources that are necessary for the completion of the transmission cycle and to relate these resources to (combinations of) landscape features and other environmental factors. The potential of the RBHC as a framework for identifying suitable habitats for vector‐borne pathogens is explored and illustrated with the case of bluetongue virus, a midge‐transmitted virus affecting ruminants. The concept facilitates the study of functional habitats of the interacting species (vectors as well as hosts) and provides new insight into spatial and temporal variation in transmission opportunities and exposure that ultimately determine disease risks. It may help to identify knowledge gaps and control options arising from changes in the spatial configuration of key resources across the landscape. The RBHC framework may act as a bridge between existing mechanistic and statistical modelling approaches.     

Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: Distribution patterns,climate change effects,and conservation priorities

Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the result of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, Memecylon, in Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for Memecylon, and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan Memecylon. We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan Memecylon to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We also overlaid land cover and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land‐cover changes on Memecylon distributions and propose new areas for conservation. Differences among suitable habitats of Memecylon were found to be related to patterns of endemism. Under varying future climate scenarios, endemic groups were predicted to experience habitat shifts, gains, or losses. The narrow endemic Memecylon restricted to the montane zone were predicted to be the most impacted by climate change. Projections also indicated that changes in species’ habitats can be expected as early as 2041–2060. Gap analysis showed that while narrow endemic categories are considerably protected as demonstrated by their overlap with protected areas, more conservation efforts in Sri Lankan forests containing wide endemic and nonendemic Memecylon are needed. This research helped clarify general patterns of responses of Sri Lankan Memecylon to global climate change. Data from this study are useful for designing measures aimed at filling the gaps in forest conservation on this island.     

Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change

Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo‐absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.     

Disproportional risk for habitat loss of high‐altitude endemic species under climate change

The expected upward shift of trees due to climate warming is supposed to be a major threat to range‐restricted high‐altitude species by shrinking the area of their suitable habitats. Our projections show that areas of endemism of five taxonomic groups (vascular plants, snails, spiders, butterflies, and beetles) in the Austrian Alps will, on average, experience a 77% habitat loss even under the weakest climate change scenario (+1.8 °C by 2100). The amount of habitat loss is positively related with the pooled endemic species richness (species from all five taxonomic groups) and with the richness of endemic vascular plants, snails, and beetles. Owing to limited postglacial migration, hotspots of high‐altitude endemics are situated in rather low peripheral mountain chains of the Alps, which have not been glaciated during the Pleistocene. There, tree line expansion disproportionally reduces habitats of high‐altitude species. Such legacies of climate history, which may aggravate extinction risks under future climate change have to be expected for many temperate mountain ranges.     

The role of climate,habitat, and species co‐occurrence as drivers of change in small mammal distributions over the past century

Species distribution models are commonly used to predict species responses to climate change. However, their usefulness in conservation planning and policy is controversial because they are difficult to validate across time and space. Here we capitalize on small mammal surveys repeated over a century in Yosemite National Park, USA, to assess accuracy of model predictions. Historical (1900–1940) climate, vegetation, and species occurrence data were used to develop single‐ and multi‐species multivariate adaptive regression spline distribution models for three species of chipmunk. Models were projected onto the current (1980–2007) environmental surface and then tested against modern field resurveys of each species. We evaluated models both within and between time periods and found that even with the inclusion of biotic predictors, climate alone is the dominant predictor explaining the distribution of the study species within a time period. However, climate was not consistently an adequate predictor of the distributional change observed in all three species across time. For two of the three species, climate alone or climate and vegetation models showed good predictive performance across time. The stability of the distribution from the past to present observed in the third species, however, was not predicted by our modeling approach. Our results demonstrate that correlative distribution models are useful in understanding species' potential responses to environmental change, but also show how changes in species‐environment correlations through time can limit the predictive performance of models.     

Effect of historical land‐use and climate change on tree‐climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree‐climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree‐climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land‐use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land‐use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land‐use interactions are compounding, in which historical land‐use reinforces shifts in species‐climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land‐use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary‐based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.     

Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation

Assuming that co‐distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM‐based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate‐change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0–10.0% and 3.0–9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long‐term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem.