Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990–2080

We present the most comprehensive pan‐European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process‐based SOC model and state‐of‐the‐art databases of soil, climate change, land‐use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted carbon model on a European 10 × 10′ grid using climate data from four global climate models implementing four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model. Land‐use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the IPCC SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland areas. Projections for 1990–2080 are presented for mineral soil only. Climate effects (soil temperature and moisture) will tend to speed decomposition and cause soil carbon stocks to decrease, whereas increases in carbon input because of increasing NPP will slow the loss. Technological improvement may further increase carbon inputs to the soil. Changes in cropland and grassland areas will further affect the total soil carbon stock of European croplands and grasslands. While climate change will be a key driver of change in soil carbon over the 21st Century, changes in technology and land‐use change are estimated to have very significant effects. When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis under future climate (1–7 t C ha^?1 for cropland and 3–6 t C ha^?1 for grassland), but when the greatly decreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios, and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland), the cropland SOC stock decreases from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4–6 Pg (39–54%) by 2080, and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 to 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases to 1–3 Pg (20–44%) under the other scenarios. Uncertainty associated with the land‐use and technology scenarios remains unquantified, but worst‐case quantified uncertainties are 22.5% for croplands and 16% for grasslands, equivalent to potential errors of 2.5 and 1 Pg SOC, respectively. This is equivalent to 42–63% of the predicted SOC stock change for croplands and 33–100% of the predicted SOC stock change for grasslands. Implications for accounting for SOC changes under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed.     

Ecosystem carbon stocks and their changes in China’s grasslands

The knowledge of carbon (C) stock and its dynamics is crucial for understanding the role of grassland ecosystems in China’s terrestrial C cycle. To date, a comprehensive assessment on C balance in China’s grasslands is still lacking. By reviewing published literature, this study aims to evaluate ecosystem C stocks (both vegetation biomass and soil organic C) and their changes in China’s grasslands. Our results are summarized as follows: (1) biomass C density (C stock per area) of China’s grasslands differed greatly among previous studies, ranging from 215.8 to 348.1 g C m⁻² with an average of 300.2 g C m⁻². Likewise, soil C density also varied greatly between 8.5 and 15.1 kg C m⁻². In total, ecosystem C stock in China’s grasslands was estimated at 29.1 Pg C. (2) Both the magnitude and direction of ecosystem C changes in China’s grasslands differed greatly among previous studies. According to recent reports, neither biomass nor soil C stock in China’s grasslands showed a significant change during the past 20 years, indicating that grassland ecosystems are C neutral. (3) Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of grassland biomass were closely correlated with precipitation, while changes in soil C stocks exhibited close associations with soil moisture and soil texture. Human activities, such as livestock grazing and fencing could also affect ecosystem C dynamics in China’s grasslands.     

Soil organic carbon stocks in China and changes from 1980s to 2000s

The estimation of the size and changes of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is of great importance for decision makers to adopt proper measures to protect soils and to develop strategies for mitigation of greenhouse gases. In this paper, soil data from the Second State Soil Survey of China (SSSSC) conducted in the early 1980s and data published in the last 5 years were used to estimate the size of SOC stocks over the whole profile and their changes in China in last 20 years. Soils were identified as paddy, upland, forest, grassland or waste‐land soils and an improved soil bulk density estimation method was used to estimate missing bulk density data. In the early 1980s, total SOC stocks were estimated at 89.61 Pg (1 Pg=10³ Tg=10¹⁵ g) in China's 870.94 Mha terrestrial areas covered by 2473 soil series. In the paddy, upland, forest and grassland soils the respective total SOC stocks were 2.91 Pg on 29.87 Mha, 10.07 Pg on 125.89 Mha, 34.23 Pg on 249.32 Mha and 37.71 Pg on 278.51 Mha, respectively. The SOC density of the surface layer ranged from 3.5 Mg ha⁻¹ in Gray Desery grassland soils to 252.6 Mg ha⁻¹ in Mountain Meadow forest soils. The average area‐weighted total SOC density in paddy soils (97.6 Mg ha⁻¹) was higher than that in upland soils (80 Mg ha⁻¹). Soils under forest (137.3 Mg ha⁻¹) had a similar average area‐weighted total SOC density as those under grassland (135.4 Mg ha⁻¹). The annual estimated SOC accumulation rates in farmland and forest soils in the last 20 years were 23.61 and 11.72 Tg, respectively, leading to increases of 0.472 and 0.234 Pg SOC in farmland and forest areas, respectively. In contrast, SOC under grassland declined by 3.56 Pg due to the grassland degradation over this period. The resulting estimated net SOC loss in China's soils over the last 20 years was 2.86 Pg. The documented SOC accumulation in farmland and forest soils could thus not compensate for the loss of SOC in grassland soils in the last 20 years. There were, however, large regional differences: Soils in China's South and Eastern parts acted mainly as C sinks, increasing their average topsoil SOC by 132 and 145 Tg, respectively. In contrast, in the Northwest, Northeast, Inner Mongolia and Tibet significant losses of 1.38, 0.21, 0.49 and 1.01 Pg of SOC, respectively, were estimated over the last 20 years. These results highlight the importance to take measures to protect grassland and to improve management practices to increase C sequestration in farmland and forest soils.     

Changes in topsoil carbon stock in the Tibetan grasslands between the 1980s and 2004

Climate warming is likely inducing carbon loss from soils of northern ecosystems, but little evidence comes from large-scale observations. Here we used data from a repeated soil survey and remote sensing vegetation index to explore changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock on the Tibetan Plateau during the past two decades. Our results showed that SOC stock in the top 30 cm depth in alpine grasslands on the plateau amounted to 4.4 Pg C (1 Pg=10¹⁵ g), with an overall average of 3.9 kg C m⁻². SOC changes during 1980s–2004 were estimated at −0.6 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, ranging from −36.5 to 35.8 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ at 95% confidence, indicating that SOC stock in the Tibetan alpine grasslands remained relatively stable over the sampling periods. Our findings are nonconsistent with previous reports of loss of soil C in grassland ecosystems due to the accelerated decomposition with warming. In the case of the alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau studied here, we speculate that increased rates of decomposition as soils warmed during the last two decades may have been compensated by increased soil C inputs due to increased grass productivity. These results suggest that soil C stock in terrestrial ecosystems may respond differently to climate change depending on ecosystem type, regional climate pattern, and intensity of human disturbance.     

Land use induced changes of organic carbon storage in soils of China

Using the data compiled from China's second national soil survey and an improved method of soil carbon bulk density, we have estimated the changes of soil organic carbon due to land use, and compared the spatial distribution and storage of soil organic carbon (SOC) in cultivated soils and noncultivated soils in China. The results reveal that ～ 57% of the cultivated soil subgroups ( ～ 31% of the total soil surface) have experienced a significant carbon loss, ranging from 40% to 10% relative to their noncultivated counterparts. The most significant carbon loss is observed for the non‐irrigated soils (dry farmland) within a semiarid/semihumid belt from northeastern to southwestern China, with the maximum loss occurring in northeast China. On the contrary, SOC has increased in the paddy and irrigated soils in northwest China. No significant change is observed for forest soils in southern China, grassland and desert soils in northwest China, as well as irrigated soils in eastern China. The SOC storage and density under noncultivated conditions in China are estimated to ～ 77.4 Pg (10¹⁵ g) and ～ 8.8 kg C m^?2, respectively, compared to a SOC storage of ～ 70.3 Pg and an average SOC density of ～ 8.0 kg C m^?2 under the present‐day conditions. This suggests a loss of ～ 7.1 Pg SOC and a decrease of ～ 0.8 kg C m^?2 SOC density due to increasing human activities, in which the loss in organic horizons has contributed to ～ 77%. This total loss of SOC in China induced by land use represents ～ 9.5% of the world's SOC decrease. This amount is equivalent to ～ 3.5 ppmv of the atmospheric CO₂ increase. Since ～ 78% of the currently cultivated soils in China have been degraded to a low/medium productivities and are responsible for most of the SOC loss, an improved land management, such as the development of irrigated and paddy land uses, would have a considerable potential in restoring the SOC storage. Assuming a restoration of ～ 50% of the lost SOC during the next 20–50 years, the soils in China would absorb ～ 3.5 Pg of carbon from the atmosphere.     

Storage and sequestration potential of topsoil organic carbon in China's paddy soils

Carbon (C) storage and sequestration in agricultural soils is considered to be an important issue in the study of terrestrial C cycling and global climatic change. The baseline C stock and the C sequestration potential are among the criteria for a region or a state to adopt strategies or policies in response to commitment to the Kyoto Protocol. Paddy soils represent a large portion of global cropland. However, little information on the potential of C sequestration and storage is available for such soils. In this paper, an estimation of the topsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) pool and the sequestration potential of paddy soils in China was made by using the data from the 2nd State Soil Survey carried out during 1979–1982 and from the nationwide arable soil monitoring system established since then. Results showed that the SOC density ranged from 12 to 226 t C ha^?1 with an area‐weighted mean density of 44 t C ha^?1, which is comparable to that of the US grasslands and is higher than that of the cultivated dryland soils in China and the US. The estimated total topsoil SOC pool is 1.3 Pg, with 0.85 Pg from the upper plow layer and 0.45 Pg from the plowpan layer. This pool size is ～2% of China's total storage in the top 1 m of the soil profiles and ～4% of the total topsoil pool, while the area percentage of paddy soil is 3.4% of the total land. The C pool in paddy soils was found predominantly in southeast China geographically and in the subgroups of Fe‐accumulating and Fe‐leaching paddy soils pedogenetically. In comparison with dryland cultivation, irrigation‐based rice cultivation in China has induced significant enrichment of SOC storage (0.3 Pg) in paddy soils. The induced total C sequestration equals half of China's total annual CO₂ emission in the 1990s. Estimates using different SOC sequestration scenarios show that the paddy soils of China have an easily attainable SOC sequestration potential of 0.7 Pg under present conditions and may ultimately sequester 3.0 Pg. Soil monitoring data showed that the current C sequestration rate is 12 Tg yr^?1. The total C sequestration potential and the current sequestration rate of the paddy soils are over 30%, while the area of the paddy soils is 26% that of China's total croplands. Therefore, practicing sustainable agriculture is urgently needed for enhancing SOC storage to realize the ultimate SOC sequestration of rice‐based agriculture of China, as the current C sequestration rate is significantly lower than the potential rate.     

Significant soil acidification across northern China's grasslands during 1980s–2000s

Anthropogenic acid deposition may lead to soil acidification, with soil buffering capacity regulating the magnitude of any soil pH change. However, little evidence is available from large‐scale observations. Here, we evaluated changes in soil pH across northern China's grasslands over the last two decades using soil profiles obtained from China's Second National Soil Inventory during the 1980s and a more recent regional soil survey during 2001–2005. A transect from the central‐southern Tibetan Plateau to the eastern Inner Mongolian Plateau, where Kriging interpolation provided robust predictions of the spatial distribution of soil pH, was then selected to examine pH changes during the survey period. Our results showed that soil pH in the surface layer had declined significantly over the last two decades, with an overall decrease of 0.63 units (95% confidence interval = 0.54–0.73 units). The decline of soil pH was observed in both alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau and temperate grasslands on the Inner Mongolian Plateau. Soil pH decreased more intensively in low soil carbonate regions, while changes of soil pH showed no significant associations with soil cation exchange capacity. These results suggest that grassland soils across northern China have experienced significant acidification from the 1980s to 2000s, with soil carbonates buffering the increase in soil acidity. The buffering process may induce a large loss of carbon from soil carbonates and thus alter the carbon balance in these globally important ecosystems.     

Biomass carbon stocks and their changes in northern China’s grasslands during 1982–2006

Grassland covers approximately one-third of the area of China and plays an important role in the global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, little is known about biomass C stocks and dynamics in these grasslands. During 2001–2005, we conducted five consecutive field sampling campaigns to investigate above-and below-ground biomass for northern China’s grasslands. Using measurements obtained from 341 sampling sites, together with a NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) time series dataset over 1982–2006, we examined changes in biomass C stock during the past 25 years. Our results showed that biomass C stock in northern China’s grasslands was estimated at 557.5 Tg C (1 Tg=10¹² g), with a mean density of 39.5 g C m⁻² for above-ground biomass and 244.6 g C m⁻² for below-ground biomass. An increasing rate of 0.2 Tg C yr⁻¹ has been observed over the past 25 years, but grassland biomass has not experienced a significant change since the late 1980s. Seasonal rainfall (January–July) was the dominant factor driving temporal dynamics in biomass C stock; however, the responses of grassland biomass to climate variables differed among various grassland types. Biomass in arid grasslands (i.e., desert steppe and typical steppe) was significantly associated with precipitation, while biomass in humid grasslands (i.e., alpine meadow) was positively correlated with mean January-July temperatures. These results suggest that different grassland ecosystems in China may show diverse responses to future climate changes.     

China's crop productivity and soil carbon storage as influenced by multifactor global change

Much concern has been raised about how multifactor global change has affected food security and carbon sequestration capacity in China. By using a process‐based ecosystem model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), in conjunction with the newly developed driving information on multiple environmental factors (climate, atmospheric CO₂, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition, and land cover/land use change), we quantified spatial and temporal patterns of net primary production (NPP) and soil organic carbon storage (SOC) across China's croplands during 1980–2005 and investigated the underlying mechanisms. Simulated results showed that both crop NPP and SOC increased from 1980 to 2005, and the highest annual NPP occurred in the Southeast (SE) region (0.32 Pg C yr^?1, 35.4% of the total NPP) whereas the largest annual SOC (2.29 Pg C yr^?1, 35.4% of the total SOC) was found in the Northeast (NE) region. Land management practices, particularly nitrogen fertilizer application, appear to be the most important factor in stimulating increase in NPP and SOC. However, tropospheric ozone pollution and climate change led to NPP reduction and SOC loss. Our results suggest that China's crop productivity and soil carbon storage could be enhanced through minimizing tropospheric ozone pollution and improving nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency.     

Spatial analysis of soil organic carbon evolution in Belgian croplands and grasslands, 1960–2006

Given the importance of soil organic carbon (SOC) as a pool in the global carbon cycle and an indicator for soil quality, there exits an urgent need to monitor this dynamic soil property. Here, we present a modelling approach to analyze the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of organic carbon in mineral soils under agricultural land use in Belgium. An empirical model, predicting the SOC concentration in the top 0.3 m, as a function of precipitation, land use, soil type and management has been constructed and applied within a spatial context using data from different time slices. The results show that SOC content is strongly correlated with precipitation and temperature under cropland and with texture and drainage under grassland. Total SOC stock increased with 1.3% from 6.18 ± 0.03 kg C m^?2 in 1960 to 6.26 ± 0.07 kg C m^?2 in 2006. Although this increase was not significant (P>0.05), a significant discrepancy between cropland (?8%) and grassland (+10%) was observed. Foremost, the grasslands in the hilly southern part of the country, under relatively wet climate conditions, acted as important sinks of CO₂. Under cropland, all soil types were characterized by a decrease in SOC, except for the clay soils in the north‐west. Currently, croplands in the central loam region have SOC concentrations close to 10 g C kg^?1 indicating that these soils are at risk of a decline in aggregate stability. An overall strong SOC decline in poorly drained soils is probably caused by artificial drainage. Further research is needed to gain more insight into the processes driving the observed SOC trends. Moreover, the use of updated drainage class information and land management history would improve the empirical models.     

Large soil organic carbon increase due to improved agronomic management in the North China Plain from 1980s to 2010s

Agricultural soils are widely recognized to be capable of carbon sequestration that contributes to mitigating CO₂ emissions. To better understand soil organic carbon (SOC) stock dynamics and its driving and controlling factors corresponding with a period of rapid agronomic evolution from the 1980s to the 2010s in the North China Plain (NCP), we collected data from two region‐wide soil sampling campaigns (in the 1980s and 2010s) and conducted an analysis of the controlling factors using the random forest model. Between the 1980s and 2010s, environmental (i.e. soil salinity/fertility) and societal (i.e. policy/techniques) factors both contributed to adoption of new management practices (i.e. chemical fertilizer application/mechanization). Results of our work indicate that SOC stocks in the NCP croplands increased significantly, which also closely related to soil total nitrogen changes. Samples collected near the surface (0–20 cm) and deeper (20–40 cm) both increased by an average of 9.4 and 5.1 Mg C ha^?1, respectively, which are equivalent to increases of 73% and 56% compared with initial SOC stocks in the 1980s. The annual carbon sequestration amount in surface soils reached 10.9 Tg C year^?1, which contributed an estimated 43% of total carbon sequestration in all of China's cropland on just 27% of its area. Successful desalinization and the subsequent increases in carbon (C) inputs, induced by agricultural projects and policies intended to support crop production (i.e. reconstruction of low yield farmland, and agricultural subsidies), combined with improved cultivation practices (i.e. fertilization and straw return) since the early 1980s were the main drivers for the SOC stock increase. This study suggests that rehabilitation of NCP soils to reduce salinity and increase crop yields have also served as a pathway for substantial soil C sequestration.     

Spatial Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon and Its Influencing Factors in Desert Grasslands of the Hexi Corridor,Northwest China

Knowledge of the distribution patterns of soil organic carbon (SOC) and factors that influence these patterns is crucial for understanding the carbon cycle. The objectives of this study were to determine the spatial distribution pattern of soil organic carbon density (SOCD) and the controlling factors in arid desert grasslands of northwest China. The above- and belowground biomass and SOCD in 260 soil profiles from 52 sites over 2.7×10⁴ km² were investigated. Combined with a satellite-based dataset of an enhanced vegetation index during 2011–2012 and climatic factors at different sites, the relationships between SOCD and biotic and abiotic factors were identified. The results indicated that the mean SOCD was 1.20 (SD:+/− 0.85), 1.73 (SD:+/− 1.20), and 2.69 (SD:+/− 1.91) kg m⁻² at soil depths of 0–30 cm, 0–50 cm, and 0–100 cm, respectively, which was smaller than other estimates in temperate grassland, steppe, and desert-grassland ecosystems. The spatial distribution of SOCD gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest, corresponding to the precipitation gradient. SOCD increased significantly with vegetation biomass, annual precipitation, soil moisture, clay and silt content, and decreased with mean annual temperature and sand content. The correlation between BGB and SOCD was closer than the correlation between AGB and SOCD. Variables could together explain about 69.8%, 74.4%, and 78.9% of total variation in SOCD at 0–30 cm, 0–50 cm, and 0–100 cm, respectively. In addition, we found that mean annual temperature is more important than other abiotic factors in determining SOCD in arid desert grasslands in our study area. The information obtained in this study provides a basis for accurately estimating SOC stocks and assessing carbon (C) sequestration potential in the desert grasslands of northwest China.     

Alpine Grassland Soil Organic Carbon Stock and Its Uncertainty in the Three Rivers Source Region of the Tibetan Plateau

Alpine grassland of the Tibetan Plateau is an important component of global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, but insufficient field observations and large spatial heterogeneity leads to great uncertainty in their estimation. In the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR), alpine grasslands account for more than 75% of the total area. However, the regional carbon (C) stock estimate and their uncertainty have seldom been tested. Here we quantified the regional SOC stock and its uncertainty using 298 soil profiles surveyed from 35 sites across the TRSR during 2006–2008. We showed that the upper soil (0–30 cm depth) in alpine grasslands of the TRSR stores 2.03 Pg C, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 1.25 to 2.81 Pg C. Alpine meadow soils comprised 73% (i.e. 1.48 Pg C) of the regional SOC estimate, but had the greatest uncertainty at 51%. The statistical power to detect a deviation of 10% uncertainty in grassland C stock was less than 0.50. The required sample size to detect this deviation at a power of 90% was about 6–7 times more than the number of sample sites surveyed. Comparison of our observed SOC density with the corresponding values from the dataset of Yang et al. indicates that these two datasets are comparable. The combined dataset did not reduce the uncertainty in the estimate of the regional grassland soil C stock. This result could be mainly explained by the underrepresentation of sampling sites in large areas with poor accessibility. Further research to improve the regional SOC stock estimate should optimize sampling strategy by considering the number of samples and their spatial distribution.     

Carbon pool densities and a first estimate of the total carbon pool in the Mongolian forest‐steppe

The boreal forest biome represents one of the most important terrestrial carbon stores, which gave reason to intensive research on carbon stock densities. However, such an analysis does not yet exist for the southernmost Eurosiberian boreal forests in Inner Asia. Most of these forests are located in the Mongolian forest‐steppe, which is largely dominated by Larix sibirica. We quantified the carbon stock density and total carbon pool of Mongolia's boreal forests and adjacent grasslands and draw conclusions on possible future change. Mean aboveground carbon stock density in the interior of L. sibirica forests was 66 Mg C ha^?1, which is in the upper range of values reported from boreal forests and probably due to the comparably long growing season. The density of soil organic carbon (SOC, 108 Mg C ha^?1) and total belowground carbon density (149 Mg C ha^?1) are at the lower end of the range known from boreal forests, which might be the result of higher soil temperatures and a thinner permafrost layer than in the central and northern boreal forest belt. Land use effects are especially relevant at forest edges, where mean carbon stock density was 188 Mg C ha^?1, compared with 215 Mg C ha^?1 in the forest interior. Carbon stock density in grasslands was 144 Mg C ha^?1. Analysis of satellite imagery of the highly fragmented forest area in the forest‐steppe zone showed that Mongolia's total boreal forest area is currently 73 818 km², and 22% of this area refers to forest edges (defined as the first 30 m from the edge). The total forest carbon pool of Mongolia was estimated at ~ 1.5?1.7 Pg C, a value which is likely to decrease in future with increasing deforestation and fire frequency, and global warming.     

Dynamics of soil organic carbon storage following restoration of grassland on Yunwu Mountain

Grassland recovery and reconstruction are critical to ecological restoration in the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). Investigating changes in soil organic carbon density (SOCD), soil organic carbon (SOC) storage, and the rate of SOC sequestration is very important to assess the effect of ecological recovery and estimate the capacity of soil carbon sequestration. Here, we present the data of SOCD, SOC storage, and SOC sequestration rate from grasslands conversion from farmlands in the CLP. Our results indicate that: (1) The average SOCD (0–100 cm) in sites continued cultivation (CC), cultivation abandonment at 1999 (AC-99) and cultivation abandonment at 1989 (AC-89) is 6.00, 21.64 and 22.23 kg m^?2, respectively. SOCD in sites AC-99 and AC-89 is significantly higher than that in site CC and the average SOCD of China (10.53 kg m^?2), which indicates that vegetation restoration is benefit to increase soil carbon storage as well as preserve soil and water in this area. (2) The SOC storage (0–100 cm) in sites CC, AC-99 and AC-89 is 60.02, 216.35 and 222.32 kg m^?2, respectively. Results of ANOVA indicate that SOC storage of AC-99 is significantly higher than that of CC, while SOC storage of AC-89 is significantly higher than that of AC-99 at the depth of 0–50 cm (P < 0.001). It suggests that the capability of soil carbon sequestration increases after vegetation restoration, which is mainly due to the increase of plant roots. (3) The rate of SOC sequestration varies at different depths, which is high at the depth of 0–50 cm while low at the depth of 50–100 cm. This is probably due to the accumulation of plant root in the surface layer, which is the main controlling factor of SOC in this area. Our results indicate that the SOCD and SOC storage increase with vegetation restoration in our study site significantly.     

China's wetland soil organic carbon pool: New estimation on pool size,change, and trajectory

Robust estimates of wetland soil organic carbon (SOC) pools are critical to understanding wetland carbon dynamics in the global carbon cycle. However, previous estimates were highly variable and uncertain, due likely to the data sources and method used. Here we used machine learning method to estimate SOC storage and their changes over time in China's wetlands based on wetland SOC density database, associated geospatial environmental data, and recently published wetland maps. We built a database of wetland SOC density in China that contains 809 samples from 181 published studies collected over the last 20 years as presented in the published literature. All samples were extended and standardized to a 1-m depth, on the basis of the relationship between SOC density data from soil profiles of different depths. We used three different machine learning methods to evaluate their robustness in estimating wetland SOC storage and changes in China. The results indicated that random forest model achieved accurate wetland SOC estimation with R² being .65. The results showed that average SOC density of top 1 m in China's wetlands was 25.03 ± 3.11 kg C m⁻² in 2000 and 26.57 ± 3.73 kg C m⁻² in 2020, an increase of 6.15%. SOC storage change from 4.73 ± 0.58 Pg in 2000 to 4.35 ± 0.61 Pg in 2020, a decrease of 8.03%, due to 13.6% decreased in wetland area from 189.12 × 10³ to 162.8 × 10³ km² in 2020, despite the increase in SOC density during the same time period. The carbon accumulation rate was 107.5 ± 12.4 g C m⁻² year⁻¹ since 2000 in wetlands with no area changes. Climate change caused variations in wetland SOC density, and a future warming and drying climate would lead to decreases in wetland SOC storage. Estimates under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 (low-carbon emissions) suggested that wetland SOC storage in China would not change significantly by 2100, but under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (high-carbon emissions), it would decrease significantly by approximately 5.77%. In this study, estimates of wetland SOC storage were optimized from three aspects, including sample database, wetland extent, and estimation method. Our study indicates the importance of using consistent SOC density and extent data in estimating and projecting wetland SOC storage.     

Differential Effects of Conservational Management on SOC Accumulation in the Grasslands of China

Conservational management practices in grasslands have been considered one of the efficient options to enhance the soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation. However, the SOC changes after the conservational management practices vary significantly under different grassland vegetation types and the environmental conditions. At present, it is not clear how the SOC accumulation changes along the soil profile if conservational management practice was adopted. In this study, we collected 663 paired observational data of SOC changes with and without conservational management practices in grasslands of China from 176 published literatures that has both the surface (0‒20 cm) and subsurface (to 40 cm depth) SOC measurements. The differences of SOC density (SOCD) between pre‒management and post‒management in the vertical soil layers were analyzed in order to establish a quantitative relationship of the SOC changes between the subsurface and the surface. The results revealed that in all grasslands, conservational management practices benefits the SOC accumulation by enhancing 0.43‒1.14 Mg C ha^–1 yr^–1. But the SOC increment weakened downwards along the soil profile. While the surface SOC was enhanced by 17% after conservational management, the subsurface SOC was enhanced by only 7%. The SOC accumulation was closely correlated with restoration duration, pre-management SOCD and the environmental factors and differed greatly among different grasslands and the practices adopted. The alpine and mountain grassland showed a higher annual SOC increment than the temperate grassland with the annual rate of 1.62 and 0.72 Mg C ha^-1 yr^-1, respectively. The SOC increment caused by the artificial plantation and the grazing exclusion conservational management was more than 2-fold that of the cropland abandonment and the extensive utilization. With the quantitative relationship of the SOC changes between soil layers, we provide a methodological option to estimate SOC changes to layers deeper than the recommendation of IPCC when only the surface layer SOC increment is available.     

Soil organic carbon changes in landscape units of Belgium between 1960 and 2000 with reference to 1990

The present study quantifies changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Belgium between 1960, 1990 and 2000 for 289 spatially explicit land units with unique soil association and land‐use type, termed landscape units (LSU). The SOC stocks are derived from multiple nonstandardized sets of field measurements up to a depth of 30 cm. Approximately half of the LSU show an increase in SOC between 1960 and 2000. The significant increases occur mainly in soils of grassland LSU in northern Belgium. Significant decreases are observed on loamy cropland soils. Although the largest SOC gains are observed for LSU under forest (22 t C ha^?1 for coniferous and 29 t C ha^?1 for broadleaf and mixed forest in the upper 30 cm of soil), significant changes are rare because of large variability. Because the number of available measurements is very high for agricultural land, most significant changes occur under cropland and grassland, but the corresponding average SOC change is smaller than for forests (9 t C ha^?1 increase for grassland and 1 t C ha^?1 decrease for cropland). The 1990 data for agricultural LSU show that the SOC changes between 1960 and 2000 are not linear. Most agricultural LSU show a higher SOC stock in 1990 than in 2000, especially in northern Belgium. The observed temporal and spatial patterns can be explained by a change in manure application intensity. SOC stock changes caused by land‐use change are estimated. The SOC change over time is derived from observed differences between SOC stocks in space. Because SOC stocks are continuously influenced by a number of external factors, mainly land‐use history and current land management and climate, this approach gives only an approximate estimate whose validity is limited to these conditions.     

秦岭太白山北坡土壤有机碳储量的海拔梯度格局

土壤碳库是陆地生态系统的重要碳库,山区大约占全球25%的陆地表面积,因此研究山区土壤有机碳储量的变化特征及其影响因素对丰富陆地生态系统土壤碳循环理论具有重要的意义。在秦岭太白山北坡上,海拔高度每隔50 m设置一个采样点,研究土壤有机碳储量的海拔梯度变化特征及其影响因素。海拔梯度对太白山北坡的SOCD影响显著,且不同土层厚度的SOCD均呈现出随着海拔梯度的增加而增加的趋势,增加幅度高达10%—88%。不同气候带上的SOCD差异显著,呈现出亚寒带(3.63 kg/m~2)大于寒温带(3.40 kg/m~2)大于温带(3.39 kg/m~2)大于暖温带(3.30 kg/m~2)的趋势。SOCD也因植被带发生显著差异,最小值出现在低山扰动带仅为2.15 kg/m~2,而最大值出现在高山草甸带高达3.63 kg/m~2,平均2.94 kg/m~2。SOCD随着土层厚度的增加呈现出减少的趋势,减少幅度为14%—70%。在太白山北坡上,随着海拔梯度的增加,土层深度从低山区的78 cm减少到中山区的33 cm和高山区的10 cm,相应的总SOCD从低山区的35.45 kg/m~2减少到中山区的28.84 kg/m~2和高山区的12.29 kg/m~2,但是对应单位土层深度上的SOCD却从低山区的0.51 kg/m~2增加到中山区的0.87 kg/m~2和高山区的1.23 kg/m~2。因此,在秦岭太白山北坡上,除了海拔梯度、气候带、植被带、土层厚度等因素以外,土层深度对土壤有机碳储量的影响不容忽视,这对准确预测该区域的土壤碳储量具有重要的理论和实际意义。     

Widespread decreases in topsoil inorganic carbon stocks across China's grasslands during 1980s–2000s

Soil carbon (C) stocks consist of inorganic and organic components, ~1.7 times larger than the total of the C stored in vegetation and the atmosphere together. Significant soil C losses could thus offset any C sink in vegetation, creating a positive feedback to climate change. However, compared with the susceptible sensitivity of organic matter decay to climate warming, soil inorganic carbon (SIC) stocks are often assumed to be relatively stable. Here, we evaluated SIC changes across China's grasslands over the last two decades using data from a recent regional soil survey during 2001–2005 and historical national soil inventory during the 1980s. Our results showed that SIC stocks in the top 10 cm decreased significantly between the two sampling periods, with a mean rate of 26.8 (95% confidence interval: 15.8–41.7) g C m^?2 yr^?1. The larger decreases in SIC stocks were observed in those regions with stronger soil acidification and richer soil carbonates. The lost SIC could be released to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, redistributed to the deeper soil layer, and transferred to the nearby regions. The fraction of soil carbonates entering into the atmosphere may diminish the strength of terrestrial C sequestration and amplify the positive C‐climate feedback.