Host–parasite interactions and the evolution of nonrandom mating

Some species mate nonrandomly with respect to alleles underlying immunity. One hypothesis proposes that this is advantageous because nonrandom mating can lead to offspring with superior parasite resistance. We investigate this hypothesis, generalizing previous models in four ways: First, rather than only examining invasibility of modifiers of nonrandom mating, we identify evolutionarily stable strategies. Second, we study coevolution of both haploid and diploid hosts and parasites. Third, we allow for maternal parasite transmission. Fourth, we allow for many alleles at the interaction locus. We find that evolutionarily stable rates of assortative or disassortative mating are usually near zero or one. However, for one case, in which assumptions most closely match the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) system, intermediate rates of disassortative mating can evolve. Across all cases, with haploid hosts, evolution proceeds toward complete disassortative mating, whereas with diploid hosts either assortative or disassortative mating can evolve. Evolution of nonrandom mating is much less affected by the ploidy of parasites. For the MHC case, maternal transmission of parasites, because it creates an advantage to producing offspring that differ from their parents, leads to higher evolutionarily stable rates of disassortative mating. Lastly, with more alleles at the interaction locus, disassortative mating evolves to higher levels.     

Bivalve aquaculture‐environment interactions in the context of climate change

Coastal embayments are at risk of impacts by climate change drivers such as ocean warming, sea level rise and alteration in precipitation regimes. The response of the ecosystem to these drivers is highly dependent on their magnitude of change, but also on physical characteristics such as bay morphology and river discharge, which play key roles in water residence time and hence estuarine functioning. These considerations are especially relevant for bivalve aquaculture sites, where the cultured biomass can alter ecosystem dynamics. The combination of climate change, physical and aquaculture drivers can result in synergistic/antagonistic and nonlinear processes. A spatially explicit model was constructed to explore effects of the physical environment (bay geomorphic type, freshwater inputs), climate change drivers (sea level, temperature, precipitation) and aquaculture (bivalve species, stock) on ecosystem functioning. A factorial design led to 336 scenarios (48 hydrodynamic × 7 management). Model outcomes suggest that the physical environment controls estuarine functioning given its influence on primary productivity (bottom‐up control dominated by riverine nutrients) and horizontal advection with the open ocean (dominated by bay geomorphic type). The intensity of bivalve aquaculture ultimately determines the bivalve–phytoplankton trophic interaction, which can range from a bottom‐up control triggered by ammonia excretion to a top‐down control via feeding. Results also suggest that temperature is the strongest climate change driver due to its influence on the metabolism of poikilothermic organisms (e.g. zooplankton and bivalves), which ultimately causes a concomitant increase of top‐down pressure on phytoplankton. Given the different thermal tolerance of cultured species, temperature is also critical to sort winners from losers, benefiting Crassostrea virginica over Mytilus edulis under the specific conditions tested in this numerical exercise. In general, it is predicted that bays with large rivers and high exchange with the open ocean will be more resilient under climate change when bivalve aquaculture is present.     

Long‐term variation in environmental conditions influences host–parasite fitness

Long‐term data on host and parasite fitness are important for predicting how host–parasite interactions will be altered in an era of global change. Here, we use data collected from 1997 to 2013 to explore effects of changing environmental conditions on bird–blowfly interactions in northern New Mexico. The objectives of this study were to examine what climate variables influence blowfly prevalence and intensity and to determine whether blowflies and climate variables affect bird fledging success. We examined how temperature, precipitation, and drought affect two parasitic blowflies and their hosts, Western Bluebirds (Sialia mexicana) and Ash‐throated Flycatchers (Myiarchus cinerascens). We found that blowfly prevalence did not change over time. Blowfly intensity increased over time in bluebird nests, but not in flycatcher nests. More blowflies result in slightly higher fledging success in bluebirds, but not flycatchers. There was a significant interaction between blowflies and precipitation on bluebird fledging success. For flycatchers, there was a significant interaction between blowflies and temperature and between blowflies and drought severity on fledging success. Given that the southwest is projected to be hotter and have more frequent and prolonged droughts, we predict that flycatchers may be negatively impacted by blowflies if these trends continue. Future work should focus on investigating the role of both blowflies and climate on fledging success. Climate patterns may negatively impact host fitness through altered parasite pressure.     

Host–parasite genotypic interactions in the honey bee: the dynamics of diversity

Parasites are thought to be a major driving force shaping genetic variation in their host, and are suggested to be a significant reason for the maintenance of sexual reproduction. A leading hypothesis for the occurrence of multiple mating (polyandry) in social insects is that the genetic diversity generated within‐colonies through this behavior promotes disease resistance. This benefit is likely to be particularly significant when colonies are exposed to multiple species and strains of parasites, but host–parasite genotypic interactions in social insects are little known. We investigated this using honey bees, which are naturally polyandrous and consequently produce genetically diverse colonies containing multiple genotypes (patrilines), and which are also known to host multiple strains of various parasite species. We found that host genotypes differed significantly in their resistance to different strains of the obligate fungal parasite that causes chalkbrood disease, while genotypic variation in resistance to the facultative fungal parasite that causes stonebrood disease was less pronounced. Our results show that genetic variation in disease resistance depends in part on the parasite genotype, as well as species, with the latter most likely relating to differences in parasite life history and host–parasite coevolution. Our results suggest that the selection pressure from genetically diverse parasites might be an important driving force in the evolution of polyandry, a mechanism that generates significant genetic diversity in social insects.     

The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.     

Testing the match–mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change

In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring ‘peak’ green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change.     

Geographic variation in growth response of Douglas‐fir to interannual climate variability and projected climate change

We used 179 tree ring chronologies of Douglas‐fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] from the International Tree‐Ring Data Bank to study radial growth response to historical climate variability. For the coastal variety of Douglas‐fir, we found positive correlations of ring width with summer precipitation and temperature of the preceding winter, indicating that growth of coastal populations was limited by summer dryness and that photosynthesis in winter contributed to growth. For the interior variety, low precipitation and high growing season temperatures limited growth. Based on these relationships, we chose a simple heat moisture index (growing season temperature divided by precipitation of the preceding winter and current growing season) to predict growth response for the interior variety. For 105 tree ring chronologies or 81% of the interior samples, we found significant linear correlations with this heat moisture index, and moving correlation functions showed that the response was stable over time (1901–1980). We proceeded to use those relationships to predict regional growth response under 18 climate change scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with unexpected results: for comparable changes in heat moisture index, the most southern and outlying populations of Douglas‐fir in Mexico showed the least reduction in productivity. Moderate growth reductions were found in the southern United States, and strongly negative response in the central Rocky Mountains. Growth reductions were further more pronounced for high than for low elevation populations. Based on regional differences in the slope of the growth–climate relationship, we propose that southern populations are better adapted to drought conditions and could therefore contain valuable genotypes for reforestation under climate change. The results support the view that climate change may impact species not just at the trailing edges but throughout their range due to genetic adaptation of populations to local environments.     

Haematozoa in forest birds from southern Chile: Latitudinal gradients in prevalence and parasite lineage richness

Abstract The existence of latitudinal gradients in species richness and their abundance is known for many free living organisms but few cases have been reported for parasitic diseases. In addition, asymmetries between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in several characteristics may affect the distribution and diversity of species at all ecological levels. In this respect, we study the distribution of several genera of blood parasites infecting birds along a latitudinal gradient that includes the world's southernmost forests ecosystems. Birds were mist‐netted and sampled for blood in localities across Chile ranging from 33°S to 55°S during the years 2003–06. Overall, 26 bird species were sampled and 27 parasite lineages were identified. The latter belonged to three genera: Plasmodium (8), Haemoproteus (8) and Leucocytozoon (11). We found a positive significant relationship between prevalence and latitude for Leucocytozoon lineages and a negative relationship for Haemoproteus, Plasmodium and mixed infections. However, we did not find a significant relationship between parasite diversity and latitude. We found 18 lineages infecting only one species of host, and 19 lineages appear in only one of the localities of sampling. This pattern implies that some parasite lineages may evolve in isolation in some species/localities. In addition, specificity at the host‐family level was only found for Haemoproteus lineages infecting birds in the family Emberizidae. Individuals of the long distance migrant bird white‐crested elaenia (Elaenia albiceps), were found infected by the same parasite lineages in localities separated by 20° of latitude. Infections by these lineages were detected in other sedentary birds including juveniles and nestlings of different bird species. Therefore, long distance migrants are able to distort the presence of latitudinal gradients of diseases due to the potential role of migrants in spreading infections. Geographical gradients in prevalence of avian haematozoa differ between parasite genera and hemispheres, probably in relation to the existence of appropriate vector–parasite–host interactions.     

The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century

Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on‐going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916–2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate‐driven species range shifts during the 20th century.     

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity.The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions.Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.     

Laying date of marsh tits Parus palustris in relation to climate change

Increasing evidence suggests that climate change affects bird breeding phenology and other life-history traits of wildlife. This study is based on the mean spring temperatures (February, March, April) and laying dates of first eggs of the marsh tit Parus palustris. We collected data from 1984 to 2004 for the Mokrice area in NW Croatia. Correlation between laying date and mean spring temperatures was significant. The relationship between mean laying date (y) and air temperature (x) can be expressed as y = 44.69 − 2.08x. Results indicate that spring temperatures are a good predictor of timing of laying eggs. Such long-term data could than be used in order to assess the effects on biological systems if human activities influence climate.     

Effects of climate warming on host–parasitoid interactions

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Human activities and climate variability drive fast‐paced change across the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea‐land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.     

Host–parasite coevolution favours parasite genetic diversity and horizontal gene transfer

Host–parasite coevolution is predicted to favour genetic diversity and the underlying mechanisms (e.g. sexual reproduction and, more generally, genetic exchange), because diversity enhances the antagonists' potential for rapid adaptation. To date, this prediction has mainly been tested and confirmed for the host. It should similarly apply to the parasite. Indeed, our previous work demonstrated that experimental coevolution between the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans and its microparasite Bacillus thuringiensis selects for genetic diversity in both antagonists. For the parasite, the previous analysis was based on plasmid‐encoded toxin gene markers. Thus, it was restricted to a very small part of the bacterial genome and did not cover the main chromosome, which harbours a large variety of virulence factors. Here, we present new data for chromosomal gene markers of B. thuringiensis and combine this information with the previous results on plasmid‐encoded toxins. Our new results demonstrate that, in comparison with the control treatment, coevolution with a host similarly leads to higher levels of genetic diversity in the bacterial chromosome, thus indicating the relevance of chromosomal genes for coevolution. Furthermore, the frequency of toxin gene gain is significantly elevated during coevolution, highlighting the importance of horizontal gene transfer as a diversity‐generating mechanism. In conclusion, our study emphasizes the strong influence of antagonistic coevolution on parasite genetic diversity and gene exchange.     

Adapting legume crops to climate change using genomic approaches

Our agricultural system and hence food security is threatened by combination of events, such as increasing population, the impacts of climate change, and the need to a more sustainable development. Evolutionary adaptation may help some species to overcome environmental changes through new selection pressures driven by climate change. However, success of evolutionary adaptation is dependent on various factors, one of which is the extent of genetic variation available within species. Genomic approaches provide an exceptional opportunity to identify genetic variation that can be employed in crop improvement programs. In this review, we illustrate some of the routinely used genomics‐based methods as well as recent breakthroughs, which facilitate assessment of genetic variation and discovery of adaptive genes in legumes. Although additional information is needed, the current utility of selection tools indicate a robust ability to utilize existing variation among legumes to address the challenges of climate uncertainty.     

Melanin‐based colour polymorphism responding to climate change

Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin‐based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV‐radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV‐radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV‐protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin‐based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.     

Predicted impact of climate change on European bats in relation to their biogeographic patterns

There has been considerable recent interest concerning the impact of climate change on a wide range of taxa. However, little is known about how the biogeographic affinities of taxa may affect their responses to these impacts. Our main aim was to study how predicted climate change will affect the distribution of 28 European bat species grouped by their biogeographic patterns as determined by a spatial Principal Component Analysis. Using presence‐only modelling techniques and climatic data (minimum temperature, average temperature, precipitation, humidity and daily temperature range) for four different climate change scenarios (IPCC scenarios ranging from the most extreme A1FI, A2, B2 to the least severe, B1), we predict the potential geographic distribution of bat species in Europe grouped according to their biogeographic patterns for the years 2020–2030, 2050–2060 and 2090–2100. Biogeographic patterns exert a great influence on a species' response to climate change. Bat species more associated with colder climates, hence northern latitudes, could be more severely affected with some extinctions predicted by the end of the century. The Mediterranean and Temperate groups seem to be more tolerant of temperature increases, however, their projections varied considerably under different climate change scenarios. Scenario A1FI was clearly the most detrimental for European bat diversity, with several extinctions and declines in occupied area predicted for several species. The B scenarios were less damaging and even predicted that some species could increase their geographical ranges. However, all models only took into account climatic envelopes whereas available habitat and species interactions will also probably play an important role in delimiting future distribution patterns. The models may therefore generate ‘best case’ predictions about future changes in the distribution of European bats.