Combined statistical and dynamical assessment of simulated vegetation–rainfall interactions in North Africa during the mid‐Holocene1

A negative feedback of vegetation cover on subsequent annual precipitation is simulated for the mid‐Holocene over North Africa using a fully coupled general circulation model with dynamic vegetation, FOAM‐LPJ (Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model‐Lund Potsdam Jena Model). By computing a vegetation feedback parameter based on lagged auto‐covariances, the simulated impact of North African vegetation on precipitation is statistically quantified. The feedback is also dynamically assessed through initial value ensemble experiments, in which North African grass cover is initially reduced and the climatic response analyzed. The statistical and dynamical assessments of the negative vegetation feedback agree in sign and relative magnitude for FOAM‐LPJ. The negative feedback on annual precipitation largely results from a competition between bare soil evaporation and plant transpiration, with increases in the former outweighing reductions in the latter given reduced grass cover. This negative feedback weakens and eventually reverses sign over time during a transient simulation from the mid‐Holocene to present. A similar, but weaker, negative feedback is identified in Community Climate System Model Version 2 (CCSM2) over North Africa for the mid‐Holocene.     

黄土丘陵区植被恢复的土壤碳水效应

黄土高原大规模植被恢复显著影响了这一区域土壤水分和有机碳(SOC),从而影响其承载的土壤水源涵养和固碳服务。明确深层土壤水分和有机碳对植被恢复的响应特征是当前黄土高原地区生态水文与生态系统服务研究的一个重要科学问题,其中植被类型以及生长年限是这一过程的重要影响因素。然而,目前关于深层土壤有机碳和土壤水分对植被恢复的响应及二者关系的研究较少。通过对陕北典型黄土丘陵区不同植被类型和生长年限下0—5 m土壤水分与有机碳的监测,分析了深层土壤水分和有机碳对植被恢复的响应及其特征。研究发现:(1)植被恢复后0—5 m土层均出现水分亏缺,土壤水分亏缺在表层1 m最低,2—3 m最高;对于不同恢复方式,林地土壤水分亏缺在恢复至21—30a时显著高于前一阶段(11—20a),而在恢复31a后水分开始恢复,而灌木、草地土壤水分亏缺程度则随恢复年限延长不断增加。(2)林地、灌木、草地0—5 m平均土壤有机碳含量为1.97、1.77、1.72 g/kg;林地土壤固碳量随恢复年限的增加而增加,并且在恢复20a时固碳量与对照农田相比出现净增;灌木土壤固碳量随恢复年限先增加后降低;草地土壤固碳量则随退耕年限增加呈下降趋势并且低于对照农田。(3)表层0—1 m土壤水分随恢复年限增加变化不显著,深层土壤水分则随恢复年限增加显著降低;相比而言,随恢复年限增加,土壤有机碳随年限的变化在各层土壤中均不显著。深层土壤水分与土壤有机碳呈现显著的正相关,且土壤有机碳的增加速率低于土壤水分,研究认为,深层土壤固碳与土壤水分关系密切,且深层土壤固碳需要充足水分参与。深层土壤水分亏缺可能限制植被细根的发展,使深层土壤有机碳输入减少。     

北京山区典型植被土壤水分对次降雨的响应

为了揭示北京山区不同植被类型土壤水分对不同强度降雨的响应过程,选取北京山区内侧柏、荆条灌丛、荒草地为研究对象,基于2022年6—10月降雨和土壤水分的连续观测数据,分析土壤水分对不同降雨事件的响应特征。结果表明：(1)观测期内研究区降雨事件主要由小雨构成,小雨事件的总降雨量占总降雨量的14.78%,小雨事件对土壤水分的响应深度可达到40—60 cm土层;中雨、大雨、暴雨事件的总降雨量占总降雨量的85.52%,中雨、大雨、暴雨事件对土壤水分的响应深度均可达到60—80 cm土层;大降雨事件对土壤水分的补给作用更明显,降雨量越大,降雨能补给的土层深度越深,土壤水分补给效果越好。(2)三种植被平均土壤水分补给速率大小依次为荒草地>侧柏>荆条灌丛,说明降雨对荒草地的补给效果最好;土层活跃程度对植被土壤水分有影响,土层越活跃,土壤水分波动越大,三种植被平均土壤水分变异系数大小依次为荒草地>荆条灌丛>侧柏,而三种植被平均土壤储水量大小则依次为侧柏>荒草地>荆条灌丛,说明侧柏的土壤水分最为稳定。(3)荒草地、荆条灌丛剖面上各层土壤水分逐渐减少,侧柏则增加,说明土壤...     

华北地区土壤水分的时空变化特征

土壤水分是重要的水文参数,也是水循环、气候变化等研究的基本要素。本研究利用中国气象局新一代自动土壤水分观测网逐小时土壤水分观测数据,分析2013—2019年间华北地区土壤水分的时空分布和变化趋势及其与降水和温度的关系。结果表明: 研究期间,华北地区10~100 cm土层土壤水分整体呈波动下降趋势,尤以100 cm根区土壤水分减少最明显。华北地区不同深度土壤水分空间分布均呈东南高、西北低的特征。10 cm土层63%面积缺墒。不同深度土壤水分随季节变化明显,夏季各层土壤水分达到最高,墒情适宜,春季土壤水分处于低值。土壤水分与降水和温度均具有较好的响应关系,随着土壤深度的增加相关性逐渐减弱,且土壤水分对降水的响应比对气温的响应更显著。     

西南地区土壤湿度与气候之间的互馈效应

土壤湿度控制着陆气之间的水热交换,与气候具有互馈效应。为了揭示中国西南地区土壤湿度与气候之间的关系,基于39年GLDAS数据,采用线性倾向估计、偏相关等方法探究了该区域土壤湿度与降水、气温的时空规律及相关性,分析了土壤湿度记忆性(Soil Moisture Memory,SMM)的空间分布及季节特征。主要结论如下:(1) 1979—2017年,西南地区仅表层(0—10cm)年平均土壤湿度呈显著减少趋势(P 0.001),气候倾向率为0.7 kg/m2/10 a,年降水量呈不显著增加趋势,而年平均气温呈显著的增加趋势(P 0.001)。(2)多年平均状态下,表层与更深层(10—40、40—100、100—200 cm)的土壤湿度呈相反的空间格局,中层(10—40、40—100 cm)土壤湿度最高。(3)基于像元的偏相关系数表明研究区土壤湿度总体上与降水关系更密切,二者呈正相关,但在0—10 cm,部分地区相关性不显著。(4)西南地区SMM总体上以60—90 d为主,且SMM均值以夏季最长,其次为冬季和春季,秋季最短;同时,对比各深度的SMM,发现0—10 cm的土壤湿度对整个西南地区长期的气候预测具有更好的代表性。研究结果可为研究西南地区陆-气相互作用以及气候预测与模式评估等提供参考依据。     

黄土丘陵区植被的土壤水文效应

采用定位监测与普查相结合方法,对黄土丘陵区主要降水量级地区不同植被下土壤水分状况进行了系统的总结分析。研究认为：农林草地土壤水分剖面有较大差异,土壤水分由高到低依次为农地、草地、灌木地、乔木。部分地区灌木林土壤水分可能不如乔木林地。在特旱年份,不同植被下的土壤水分严重亏缺,但不同植被利用引起的土壤水分差异变小。森林带土壤水分明显好于过渡带,该带刺槐生长正常;在过渡带,特旱年份油松、刺槐林不能正常生长,且乔、灌、草均引起土壤干层。所以在林草植被建设中需要一些辅助措施来保证土壤水分供应的可持续性。     

祁连山浅山区不同植被类型土壤水分时间异质性

资源供给的时间异质性与环境异质性对植被群落动态甚至景观格局的形成有着同等重要的意义.干旱区山地生态系统植被通常具有明显的空间自组织特征,土壤水分时间异质性可能在这种自组织格局的形成和稳定过程中扮演了重要角色.以祁连山排露沟小流域林草复合景观为例,通过连续监测林线附近草地、灌丛及林地对应的土壤水分状况,比较不同植被类型降水截留以及植物根系提水作用对土壤水分的影响,发现在生长季内典型月时间尺度上草地、灌丛及林地之间土壤水分时间异质性(变异系数CV)具有显著差异(5cm深度,F2,27 =11.25,P <0.01;20cm深度,F 2,27 =5.51,P<0.01),草地与灌丛5cm深度土壤水分时间异质性(CV=0.65、0.61)明显高于林地(0.52),灌丛与林地20cm深度土壤水分时间异质性(CV=0.84、0.84)明显高于草地(0.72).灌丛5cm深度土壤水分具有较高的时间异质性是因为其较高的冠层截留率,而草地表层5cm深度具有相对较高的时间异质性是因为强烈的土壤蒸发;20cm深度土壤水分时间异质性差异则主要由植被截留差异所致.不同植被类型5cm深度土壤水分时间异质性均明显低于20cm深度(P<0.01),土壤湿度变异系数最大值并不一定发生在表层.     

中国根层与表层土壤水分关系分析

根层与表层土壤水分的关系, 是由较易获取的表层土壤水分信息去探讨较难获取的深层土壤水分信息的重要桥梁。已有的根层与表层土壤水分关系(简称根表关系)大都基于一种作物或一种生态系统。该文根据我国生态系统研究网络, 包括森林、草地、农田、荒漠和沼泽生态系统的31个站点109个观测场2006年全年3437对根层和表层土壤水分数据, 研究了根表关系以及生态系统、土壤质地、湿润度、植被、土壤厚度和土壤水分量级对根表关系的影响。研究发现, 表层和根层土壤水分存在着线性关系。森林和沼泽的根层与表层土壤水分相关程度较高, 无论是率定段还是校核段, 其决定系数(R²)均大于0.79。农田和草地生态系统的率定段相关性较好, R ²均大于0.80, 校核段相关性稍弱, R ²分别为0.70和0.50。荒漠生态系统的相关关系最弱, 率定段的R²为0.62, 校核段的R²为0.49。土壤质地和生态系统因素对根表关系的影响较为一致。半湿润带、半干旱带和干旱带的根表关系空间分异性最强; 十分湿润带的根表关系与壤土和森林生态系统的根表关系相对应。湿润带内部的根表关系较为一致。将植被对根表关系的影响分为4类, 前两类为根表关系微弱的植被, 由植被本身或者植被以外的地域因素导致, 不适合用根表关系去由表层推算根层土壤水分; 后两类为根表关系良好植被, 区别为服从和不服从关系总线, 可分别用各自的根表关系或者关系总线从表层土壤水分获取根层土壤水分。表层土壤水分与0-20、0-30、……、0-100 cm土层的土壤水分均分别具有较好的相关关系, 但二者的相关性随土层厚度的增加而降低。不过, 即使是土层厚度抵及100 cm, R ²仍能维持在0.79。通过将土壤水分分别除以所有观测数据的最大值(“标甲”法)和各个生态系统数据的最大值(“标乙”法), 发现根表关系不受土壤水分量级本身的影响。     

Temporal heterogeneity of soil moisture under different vegetation types in Qilian Mountain, China

Field observations were conducted near the forest boundary in Qilian Mountain to test the differences in temporal variability of soil moisture between grassland, shrubland and forest habitats, and to examine the contributions of canopy rainfall interception and plant uptake to any observed differences. It was found that considerable differences of the temporal heterogeneity of soil moisture do exist between the three habitats. The coefficient of variance (CV) in soil moisture content at 5 cm depth was significantly higher in grassland and shrubland than in forest, while that at 20 cm was significantly higher in shrubland and forest than in grassland. High canopy rainfall interception of shrubs and intense soil moisture evaporation in grassland should be responsible for the higher temporal variability of soil moisture content at 5 cm depth in the two habitats, respectively, while the differences at 20 cm depths are most likely only due to the differences in canopy rainfall interception. Water uptakes provide little contribution to the differences in CVs of soil moisture at both 5 cm and 20 cm depths. It was also found that the CV at depth of 20 cm is significantly higher than that at depth of 5 cm, suggesting that the most active depth of soil moisture does not necessarily happen on the surface.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区坡面尺度土壤水分空间变异及影响因子

土壤水分空间分布特征及其影响因子是土壤前期含水量模拟和小流域产流机制研究的重要内容,也是半干旱地区进行生态建设的重要参考。通过对黄土高原典型坡面雨季前后100 cm深度内土壤含水量进行观测,分析地形、植被和雨季对土壤水分空间分布的影响。基本统计分析显示,土壤水分的空间异质性在上层(<20 cm)较小,在下层(>40 cm)较大。坡面尺度上,土壤含水量的空间差异主要表现在不同植被类型之间,而不是坡位之间。各覆被类型的土壤含水量相对大小为荒草地>8年生刺槐林>20年生刺槐林>沙棘林。即使沙棘林和刺槐林位于更利于获取土壤水分的地形条件下,其土壤含水量仍然明显低于荒草地。地形对土壤水分的影响被植被类型的影响所掩盖。上述规律在雨季前后都有明显表现。因此,完全基于地形指数的土壤水分预测模型在黄土高原应该慎用,植被类型应该作为土壤水分空间预测的一个重要参数。雨季使土壤含水量整体提高,但是土壤水分空间分布格局并没有根本改变,高处仍高,低处仍低,各样点处的土壤含水量在雨季前后达到显著相关水平,说明土壤水分空间格局并不是瞬时状态,而具有明显的时间稳定性。     

Temporal heterogeneity of soil moisture under different vegetation types in Qilian Mountain, China

Field observations were conducted near the forest boundary in Qilian Mountain to test the differences in temporal variability of soil moisture between grassland, shrubland and forest habitats, and to examine the contributions of canopy rainfall interception and plant uptake to any observed differences. It was found that considerable differences of the temporal heterogeneity of soil moisture do exist between the three habitats. The coefficient of variance (CV) in soil moisture content at 5 cm depth was significantly higher in grassland and shrubland than in forest, while that at 20 cm was significantly higher in shrubland and forest than in grassland. High canopy rainfall interception of shrubs and intense soil moisture evaporation in grassland should be responsible for the higher temporal variability of soil moisture content at 5 cm depth in the two habitats, respectively, while the differences at 20 cm depths are most likely only due to the differences in canopy rainfall interception. Water uptakes provide little contribution to the differences in CVs of soil moisture at both 5 cm and 20 cm depths. It was also found that the CV at depth of 20 cm is significantly higher than that at depth of 5 cm, suggesting that the most active depth of soil moisture does not necessarily happen on the surface.     

植被建设对黄土高原土壤水分的影响

为明确自退耕还林以来,黄土高原地区不同植被建设对土壤水分的影响。以Web of Science核心合集中黄土高原土壤水分研究的相关文献为对象,通过CiteSpace生成文献中的关键词并绘制关键词聚类图谱,分析植被建设对黄土高原水分的研究热点及前沿;同时以植被建设对黄土高原土壤水分影响的文献为基础,通过Meta分析量化了不同条件下(海拔,降雨、坡度等)植被建设对黄土高原土壤水分的影响程度。分析Web of Science核心合集中黄土高原土壤水分相关文献共232篇,结果显示近20 a黄土高原土壤水分研究主要包括4个方面的内容:(1)植被建设引起的土壤水分下降问题,(2)土壤水分时空变异特征,(3)土壤水分时空变异的影响因素,(4)遥感和水文模型模拟土壤水分四个方面。同时使用Meta分析了已发表的黄土高原植被建设对土壤水分影响文章103篇,结果表明:黄土高原植被建设大量消耗该区域土壤水分,乔木、灌木及草本植物对土壤水分的结合效应值(ES)依次为-1.893、-1.661、-1.239。植被建设对土壤水分的影响程度随年均降雨量的增大而减小,不同降雨区间的ES值为-0.864(≥500 mm)、-1.423(400-500 mm)、-1.534(<400 mm);在不同海拔区间,植被建设对土壤水分的消耗程度随海拔高度的增加而增加;在3个坡度范围,植被建设对土壤水分消耗程度以<15°最大,>25°次之,15-25°最小。总体而言,植被建设对土壤水分的消耗随着生长年限的增长而加剧,而灌木植被中柠条出现差异,其不同生长年限的效应值为-1.983(>30 a),-1.642(<20 a),-1.107(20-30 a)。由于黄土高原处于干旱与半干旱地区,大面积植被恢复加剧土壤水分消耗,影响到植被生长及其功能的可持续性。因此,应选择适宜植被并给予适当管理(修枝、稀植等措施)以提高土壤水分利用效率,使该地区土壤水分状况得到改善。     

塔里木河下游土壤水分与植被时空变化特征

运用变异系数、Pearson相关和回归的方法,分析了塔里木河下游2002-2006年土壤水分的时空变化和植被的分布,以及二者之间的相互关系。结果表明:土壤含水率水平空间分布随离水源地距离增加而降低,垂直分布随土层深度的增加而增加;0-60cm土壤含水率变异性最小,属中等变异性;60cm以下土壤含水量变异性增大,属强变异性;土壤含水率的时间变化受生态输水量和持续时间的制约。土壤含水率与植被的时空分布具有同步性;植被特征指数与80-280cm土壤含水率显著相关,且二者与地下水埋深均呈现极显著负相关,说明60cm以下的土壤含水率显著影响植被的生长和分布,而且地下水位是影响土壤水分和植被时空变异的主要因素。     

Dissecting Solidago canadensis–soil feedback in its real invasion

The importance of plant–soil feedback (PSF) has long been recognized, but the current knowledge on PSF patterns and the related mechanisms mainly stems from laboratory experiments. We aimed at addressing PSF effects on community performance and their determinants using an invasive forb Solidago canadensis. To do so, we surveyed 81 pairs of invaded versus uninvaded plots, collected soil samples from these pairwise plots, and performed an experiment with microcosm plant communities. The magnitudes of conditioning soil abiotic properties and soil biotic properties by S. canadensis were similar, but the direction was opposite; altered abiotic and biotic properties influenced the production of subsequent S. canadensis communities and its abundance similarly. These processes shaped neutral S. canadensis–soil feedback effects at the community level. Additionally, the relative dominance of S. canadensis increased with its ability of competitive suppression in the absence and presence of S. canadensis–soil feedbacks, and S. canadensis‐induced decreases in native plant species did not alter soil properties directly. These findings provide a basis for understanding PSF effects and the related mechanisms in the field conditions and also highlight the importance of considering PSFs holistically.     

温度植被干旱指数在2000-2015年松嫩平原土壤湿度中的应用

选取了时间序列良好的MODIS影像,对松嫩平原2000-2015年逐月的温度植被干旱指数（TVDI）进行计算,并结合农业气象站点的相对土壤湿度数据进行对比验证,发现TVDI和相对土壤湿度数据具有良好的相关关系,表明TVDI可以作为表示土壤含水量的指标。重建1 km分辨率的松嫩平原作物生长季（4-10月）表层土壤湿度空间信息数据集,引入集合经验模态分解分析方法探究了松嫩平原土壤湿度的时空变化特征及变化趋势,并探讨了松嫩平原土壤湿度变化对农作物产量的影响。结果表明,近16年来松嫩平原土壤湿度的时间变化趋势是逐渐变湿,土壤湿度的空间变化趋势是由西南向东北逐渐变湿,极端土壤缺水事件频率呈现出增高的趋势。松嫩平原粮食产量和年均土壤湿度水平显著相关说明粮食产量受到年平均土壤湿度的影响显著,不同季相的土壤湿度对粮食产量的影响程度差异较大,夏季土壤湿度对粮食产量的影响尤为明显。     

黄土丘陵区坡面整地和植被耦合下的土壤水分特征

水分是干旱半干旱地区植被恢复的主要环境制约因子。在黄土高原小流域,合理整地能够有效截留降雨补给土壤水,进而促进植被恢复。选择地处甘肃定西的半干旱黄土小流域为研究区,基于野外实测数据,分析不同植被和整地方式(柠条水平阶、山杏水平沟、侧柏反坡台,油松反坡台)综合影响下的土壤水分特征。采用最优分割法将不同整地方式土壤水分垂直层次划分为活跃层,次活跃层和相对稳定层。结果表明:生长季不同整地方式土壤水分的变化与降水量的变化密切相关,不同月份以及不同深度各整地方式土壤水分之间差异显著(P0.05)。根据土壤水分垂直变化特征,山杏水平沟水分活跃层与次活跃层为0—80cm,其深度范围均大于其他3种整地方式,而柠条水平阶土壤水分均在30 cm以下较为稳定,其深度范围均小于其他3种整地方式。不同整地方式土壤水分含量具体表现为:山杏水平沟侧柏反坡台柠条水平阶油松反坡台。     

亚热带湖滨沙地典型下垫面土壤水分变化

亚热带湖滨沙化作为南方荒漠化的一种典型类型,阐明沙化土壤水分变化规律对该地区植被恢复与重建具有重要指示意义。研究于2013年2月至2014年2月对鄱阳湖多宝湖滨沙地的土壤水分动态进行了监测,分析了不同覆被条件下沙地土壤水分在年内及极端气候条件下的动态特征。结果如下:(1)湖滨沙地土壤水分在梅雨和伏旱时期差异显著。在梅雨期及其前后,土壤水分主要受降水控制,各下垫面土壤平均含水量相对较高(0.063 cm~3/cm~3),且差异较小;而在伏旱及其后期,覆盖条件的差异起关键作用,湿地松样地的土壤平均含水量均低于0.035 cm~3/cm~3。(2)持续高温干旱天气下,浅层10cm土壤含水量迅速降低,之后维持在极低水平(0.01 cm~3/cm~3);随着深度增加,不同样地土壤含水量差异将会增强。(3)在多雨季节,17年生湿地松能有效增加土壤表层的持水能力;在干旱季节,湿地松对降水的截留及吸附作用强烈地影响土壤水分的补给量及补偿深度,当降水强度较低时,17年生湿地松样地的浅层土壤水分难以获得补给。因此,在亚热带沙地进行湿地松种植时,应增大初植密度,并且对于植株过高的湿地松林,也应采取适当措施降低其密度,以抵御愈加频发的极端干旱事件带来的风险,促使沙化地区发生持续的正向演替。     

The role of vegetation–microclimate feedback in promoting shrub encroachment in the northern Chihuahuan desert

Many arid and semi‐arid landscapes around the world are affected by a shift from grassland to shrubland vegetation, presumably induced by climate warming, increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and/or changing land use. This major change in vegetation cover is likely sustained by positive feedbacks with the physical environment. Recent research has focused on a feedback with microclimate, whereby cold intolerant shrubs increase the minimum nocturnal temperatures in their surroundings. Despite the rich literature on the impact of land cover change on local climate conditions, changes in microclimate resulting from shrub expansion into desert grasslands have remained poorly investigated. It is unclear to what extent such a feedback can affect the maximum extent of shrub expansion and the configuration of a stable encroachment front. Here, we focus on the case of the northern Chihuahuan desert, where creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) has been replacing grasslands over the past 100–150 years. We use a process‐based coupled atmosphere‐vegetation model to investigate the role of this feedback in sustaining shrub encroachment in the region. Simulations indicate that the feedback allows juvenile shrubs to establish in the grassland during average years and, once established, reduce their vulnerability to freeze‐induced mortality by creating a warmer microclimate. Such a feedback is crucial in extreme cold winters as it may reduce shrub mortality. We identify the existence of a critical zone in the surroundings of the encroachment front, in which vegetation dynamics are bistable: in this zone, vegetation can be stable both as grassland and as shrubland. The existence of these alternative stable states explains why in most cases the shift from grass to shrub cover is found to be abrupt and often difficult to revert.     

Influence of climate,soil moisture,and succession on forest carbon and nitrogen cycles

The interactions between the biotic processes of reproduction, growth, and death and the abiotic processes which regulate temperature and water availability, and the interplay between the biotic and abiotic processes regulating N and light availabilities are important in the dynamics of forest ecosystems. We have developed a computer simulation that assembles a model ecosystem which links these biotic and abiotic interactions through equations that predict decomposition processes, actual evapo-transpiration, soil water balance, nutrient uptake, growth of trees, and light penetration through the canopy. The equations and parameters are derived directly from field studies and observations of forests in eastern North America, resulting in a model that can make accurate quantitative predictions of biomass accumulation, N availability, soil humus development and net primary production.     

Convergent ecosystem responses to 23‐year ambient and manipulated warming link advancing snowmelt and shrub encroachment to transient and long‐term climate–soil carbon feedback

Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow‐moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long‐term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long‐term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales.