Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia

We present a first assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the endemic flora of Namibia, and on its vegetation structure and function, for a projected climate in ～2050 and ～2080. We used both niche‐based models (NBM) to evaluate the sensitivity of 159 endemic species to climate change (of an original 1020 plant species modeled) and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) to assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning. Endemic species modeled by NBM are moderately sensitive to projected climate change. Fewer than 5% are predicted to experience complete range loss by 2080, although more than 47% of the species are expected to be vulnerable (range reduction >30%) by 2080 if they are assumed unable to migrate. Disaggregation of results by life‐form showed distinct patterns. Endemic species of perennial herb, geophyte and tree life‐formsare predicted to be negatively impacted in Namibia, whereas annual herb and succulent endemic species remain relatively stable by 2050 and 2080. Endemic annual herb species are even predicted to extend their range north‐eastward into the tree and shrub savanna with migration, and tolerance of novel substrates. The current protected area network is predicted to meet its mandate by protecting most of the current endemicity in Namibia into the future. Vegetation simulated by DGVM is projected to experience a reduction in cover, net primary productivity and leaf area index throughout much of the country by 2050, with important implications for the faunal component of Namibia's ecosystems, and the agricultural sector. The plant functional type (PFT) composition of the major biomes may be substantially affected by climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂– currently widespread deciduous broad leaved trees and C₄ PFTs decline, with the C₄ PFT particularly negatively affected by rising atmospheric CO₂ impacts by ～2080 and deciduous broad leaved trees more likely directly impacted by drying and warming. The C₃ PFT may increase in prominence in the northwestern quadrant of the country by ～2080 as CO₂ concentrations increase. These results suggest that substantial changes in species diversity, vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning can be expected in Namibia with anticipated climate change, although endemic plant richness may persist in the topographically diverse central escarpment region.     

Effects of species composition, land surface cover, CO2 concentration and climate on isoprene emissions from European forests.

Emissions of isoprene from terrestrial vegetation are known to affect atmospheric chemical properties, like its oxidation capacity or the concentration of tropospheric ozone. The latter is of concern, since besides being a potent greenhouse gas, O(3) is toxic for humans, animals, and plants even at relatively low concentrations. Isoprene-emitting forests in the vicinity of NO(x) pollution sources (like cities) can contribute considerably to O(3) formation, and to the peak concentrations observed during hot summer weather. The biogenic contribution to O(3) concentrations is generally thought to increase in a future, warmer climate--pushing values beyond health thresholds possibly even more frequently and over larger areas--given that emissions of isoprene are highly temperature-dependent but also because of the CO(2) fertilisation of forest productivity and leaf growth. Most projections of future emissions, however, do not include the possible CO(2)-inhibition of leaf isoprene metabolism. We explore the regional distribution of emissions from European woody vegetation, using a mechanistic isoprene-dynamic vegetation model framework. We investigate the interactive effects of climate and CO(2) concentration on forest productivity, species composition, and isoprene emissions for the periods 1981-2000 and 2081-2100. Our projection of future emissions includes a direct CO(2)-isoprene inhibition. Across the model domain, we show that this direct effect has the potential to offset the stimulation of emissions that could be expected from warmer temperatures and from the increased productivity and leaf area of emitting vegetation. Changes in forest species composition that may result from climate change can play a substantial additional role in a region's future emissions. Changes in forest area or area planted in woody biofuels in general are not noticeable in the overall European forest isoprene budget, but--as was the case for changes in species composition--may substantially affect future projections in some regions of the continent.     

Evolutionary context for understanding and manipulating plant responses to past, present and future atmospheric [CO2

Variation in atmospheric [CO(2)] is a prominent feature of the environmental history over which vascular plants have evolved. Periods of falling and low [CO(2)] in the palaeo-record appear to have created selective pressure for important adaptations in modern plants. Today, rising [CO(2)] is a key component of anthropogenic global environmental change that will impact plants and the ecosystem goods and services they deliver. Currently, there is limited evidence that natural plant populations have evolved in response to contemporary increases in [CO(2)] in ways that increase plant productivity or fitness, and no evidence for incidental breeding of crop varieties to achieve greater yield enhancement from rising [CO(2)]. Evolutionary responses to elevated [CO(2)] have been studied by applying selection in controlled environments, quantitative genetics and trait-based approaches. Findings to date suggest that adaptive changes in plant traits in response to future [CO(2)] will not be consistently observed across species or environments and will not be large in magnitude compared with physiological and ecological responses to future [CO(2)]. This lack of evidence for strong evolutionary effects of elevated [CO(2)] is surprising, given the large effects of elevated [CO(2)] on plant phenotypes. New studies under more stressful, complex environmental conditions associated with climate change may revise this view. Efforts are underway to engineer plants to: (i) overcome the limitations to photosynthesis from today's [CO(2)] and (ii) benefit maximally from future, greater [CO(2)]. Targets range in scale from manipulating the function of a single enzyme (e.g. Rubisco) to adding metabolic pathways from bacteria as well as engineering the structural and functional components necessary for C(4) photosynthesis into C(3) leaves. Successfully improving plant performance will depend on combining the knowledge of the evolutionary context, cellular basis and physiological integration of plant responses to varying [CO(2)].     

Acclimation of photosynthesis,respiration and ecosystem carbon flux of a wetland on Chesapeake Bay,Maryland to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration

Acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration in shoots and ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (C _a ) was studied in a brackish wetland. Open top chambers were used to create test atmospheres of normal ambient and elevated C _a (=normal ambient + 34 Pa CO₂) over mono-specific stands of the C₃ sedge Scirpus olneyi, the dominant C₃ species in the wetland ecosystem, throughout each growing season since April of 1987. Acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration were evaluated by measurements of gas exchange in excised shoots. The impact of elevated C _a on the accumulation of carbon in the ecosystem was determined by ecosystem gas exchange measurements made using the open top chamber as a cuvette.Elevated C _a increased carbohydrate and reduced Rubisco and soluble protein concentrations as well as photosynthetic capacity(A) and dark respiration (R _d ; dry weight basis) in excised shoots and canopies (leaf area area basis) of Scirpus olneyi. Nevertheless, the rate of photosynthesis was stimulated 53% in shoots and 30% in canopies growing in elevated C _a compared to normal ambient concentration. Elevated C _a inhibited R _d measured in excised shoots (–19 to –40%) and in seasonally integrated ecosystem respiration (R _e ; –36 to –57%). Growth of shoots in elevated C _a was stimulated 14–21%, but this effect was not statistically significant at peak standing biomass in midseason. Although the effect of elevated C _a on growth of shoots was relatively small, the combined effect of increased number of shoots and stimulation of photosynthesis produced a 30% stimulation in seasonally integrated gross primary production (GPP). The stimulation of photosynthesis and inhibition of respiration by elevated C _a increased net ecosystem production (NEP=GPP–R _e ) 59% in 1993 and 50% in 1994. While this study consistently showed that elevated C _a produced a significant increase in NEP, we have not identified a correspondingly large pool of carbon below ground.     

Effects of plant traits on ecosystem and regional processes: a conceptual framework for predicting the consequences of global change

Human activities are causing widespread changes in the species composition of natural and managed ecosystems, but the consequences of these changes are poorly understood. This paper presents a conceptual framework for predicting the ecosystem and regional consequences of changes in plant species composition. Changes in species composition have greatest ecological effects when they modify the ecological factors that directly control (and respond to) ecosystem processes. These interactive controls include: functional types of organisms present in the ecosystem; soil resources used by organisms to grow and reproduce; modulators such as microclimate that influence the activity of organisms; disturbance regime; and human activities. Plant traits related to size and growth rate are particularly important because they determine the productive capacity of vegetation and the rates of decomposition and nitrogen mineralization. Because the same plant traits affect most key processes in the cycling of carbon and nutrients, changes in plant traits tend to affect most biogeochemical cycling processes in parallel. Plant traits also have landscape and regional effects through their effects on water and energy exchange and disturbance regime.     

Effects of climate and atmospheric CO2 partial pressure on the global distribution of C4 grasses: present, past, and future

C₄ photosynthetic physiologies exhibit fundamentally different responses to temperature and atmospheric CO₂ partial pressures (pCO₂) compared to the evolutionarily more primitive C₃ type. All else being equal, C₄ plants tend to be favored over C₃ plants in warm humid climates and, conversely, C₃ plants tend to be favored over C₄ plants in cool climates. Empirical observations supported by a photosynthesis model predict the existence of a climatological crossover temperature above which C₄ species have a carbon gain advantage and below which C₃ species are favored. Model calculations and analysis of current plant distribution suggest that this pCO₂-dependent crossover temperature is approximated by a mean temperature of 22°C for the warmest month at the current pCO₂ (35 Pa). In addition to favorable temperatures, C₄ plants require sufficient precipitation during the warm growing season. C₄ plants which are predominantly graminoids of short stature can be competitively excluded by trees (nearly all C₃ plants) – regardless of the photosynthetic superiority of the C₄ pathway – in regions otherwise favorable for C₄. To construct global maps of the distribution of C₄ grasses for current, past and future climate scenarios, we make use of climatological data sets which provide estimates of the mean monthly temperature to classify the globe into areas which should favor C₄ photosynthesis during at least 1 month of the year. This area is further screened by excluding areas where precipitation is <25 mm per month during the warm season and by selecting areas classified as grasslands (i.e., excluding areas dominated by woody vegetation) according to a global vegetation map. Using this approach, grasslands of the world are designated as C₃, C₄, and mixed under current climate and pCO₂. Published floristic studies were used to test the accuracy of these predictions in many regions of the world, and agreement with observations was generally good. We then make use of this protocol to examine changes in the global abundance of C₄ grasses in the past and the future using plausible estimates for the climates and pCO₂. When pCO₂ is lowered to pre-industrial levels, C₄ grasses expanded their range into large areas now classified as C₃ grasslands, especially in North America and Eurasia. During the last glacial maximum (∼18 ka BP) when the climate was cooler and pCO₂ was about 20 Pa, our analysis predicts substantial expansion of C₄ vegetation – particularly in Asia, despite cooler temperatures. Continued use of fossil fuels is expected to result in double the current pCO₂ by sometime in the next century, with some associated climate warming. Our analysis predicts a substantial reduction in the area of C₄ grasses under these conditions. These reductions from the past and into the future are based on greater stimulation of C₃ photosynthetic efficiency by higher pCO₂ than inhibition by higher temperatures. The predictions are testable through large-scale controlled growth studies and analysis of stable isotopes and other data from regions where large changes are predicted to have occurred. Received: 3 July 1997 / Accepted: 3 December 1997     

Impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on soil microbial biomass and activity in a complex, weedy field model ecosystem

Although soil organisms play an essential role in the cycling of elements in terrestrial ecosystems, little is known of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on soil microbial processes. We determined microbial biomass and activity in the soil of multitrophic model ecosystems housed in the Ecotron (NERC Centre for Population Biology, Ascot, UK) under two atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (ambient vs. ambient + 200 ppm). The model communities consist of four annual plant species which naturally co-occur in weedy fields and disturbed ground throughout southern England, together with their herbivores, parasitoids and soil biota. At the end of two experimental runs lasting 9 and 4.5 months, respectively, root dry weight and quality showed contradictory responses to elevated CO₂ concentrations, probably as a consequence of the different time-periods (and hence number of plant generations) in the two experiments. Despite significant root responses no differences in microbial biomass could be detected. Effects of CO₂ concentration on microbial activity were also negligible. Specific enzymes (protease and xylanase) showed a significant decrease in activity in one of the experimental runs. This could be related to the higher C:N ratio of root tissue. We compare the results with data from the literature and conclude that the response of complex communities cannot be predicted on the basis of oversimplified experimental set-ups.     

Frost in a future climate: modelling interactive effects of warmer temperatures and rising atmospheric [CO2] on the incidence and severity of frost damage in a temperate evergreen (Eucalyptus pauciflora)

Although plants are more susceptible to frost damage under elevated atmospheric [CO₂], the importance of frost damage under future, warmer climate scenarios is unknown. Accordingly, we used a model to examine the incidence and severity of frost damage to snow gum (Eucalyptus pauciflora) in a sub‐alpine region of Australia for current and future conditions using the A2 IPCC elevated CO₂ and climate change scenario. An existing model for predicting frost effects on E. pauciflora seedlings was adapted to include effects of elevated [CO₂] on acclimation to freezing temperatures, calibrated with field data, and applied to a study region in Victoria using climate scenario data from CSIRO's Global Climate Model C‐CAM for current (1975–2004) and future (2035–2064) 30 years climate sequences. Temperatures below 0 °C were predicted to occur less frequently while the coldest temperatures (i.e. those below ?8 °C) were almost as common in the future as in the current climate. Both elevated [CO₂] and climate warming affected the timing and rates of acclimation and de‐acclimation of snow gum to freezing temperatures, potentially reducing the length of time that plants are fully frost tolerant and increasing the length of the growing season. Despite fewer days when temperatures fall below 0 °C in the future, with consequently fewer damaging frosts with lower average levels of impact, individual weather sequences resulting in widespread plant mortality may still occur. Furthermore, delayed acclimation due to either warming or rising [CO₂] combined with an early severe frost could lead to more frost damage and higher mortality than would occur in current conditions. Effects of elevated [CO₂] on frost damage were greater in autumn, while warming had more effect in spring. Thus, frost damage will continue to be a management issue for plantation and forest management in regions where frosts persist.