Adding climate change to the mix: responses of aquatic ectotherms to the combined effects of eutrophication and warming

The threat of excessive nutrient enrichment, or eutrophication, is intensifying across the globe as climate change progresses, presenting a major management challenge. Alterations in precipitation patterns and increases in temperature are increasing nutrient loadings in aquatic habitats and creating conditions that promote the proliferation of cyanobacterial blooms. The exacerbating effects of climate warming on eutrophication are well established, but we lack an in-depth understanding of how aquatic ectotherms respond to eutrophication and warming in tandem. Here, I provide a brief overview and critique of studies exploring the cumulative impacts of eutrophication and warming on aquatic ectotherms, and provide forward direction using mechanistically focused, multi-threat experiments to disentangle complex interactions. Evidence to date suggests that rapid warming will exacerbate the negative effects of eutrophication on aquatic ectotherms, but gradual warming will induce physiological remodelling that provides protection against nutrients and hypoxia. Moving forward, research will benefit from a greater focus on unveiling cause and effect mechanisms behind interactions and designing treatments that better mimic threat dynamics in nature. This approach will enable robust predictions of species responses to ongoing eutrophication and climate warming and enable the integration of climate warming into eutrophication management policies.     

气候变化与人类活动双重驱动的冷水湖泊富营养化

富营养化对水生生态系统造成的负面影响已在世界范围内广泛发生,尤其对淡水水源地湖泊的水环境质量影响深远,进而引起当地居民的饮用水安全与健康隐患。在人类活动和气候变化的双重驱动下,富营养化辐射的范围不断扩大,从过去主要集中于温带大型浅水湖泊已经扩展到寒冷地区的冷水湖泊。分析了近年来世界范围内高寒地区冷水湖泊富营养化的趋势特征与研究进展,探讨了气候变化、人类干扰(农业活动、畜牧业生产、管理措施不当等)在不同地区冷水湖泊富营养化进程中的作用。在未来的研究中,应进一步加强对冷水湖泊富营养化机制的探讨,并对已有富营养化症状的湖泊进行生态修复,以确保冷水湖泊生态系统健康并改善饮用水源地的环境质量。     

Signatures of selection in the three‐spined stickleback along a small‐scale brackish water – freshwater transition zone

Local adaptation is often obvious when gene flow is impeded, such as observed at large spatial scales and across strong ecological contrasts. However, it becomes less certain at small scales such as between adjacent populations or across weak ecological contrasts, when gene flow is strong. While studies on genomic adaptation tend to focus on the former, less is known about the genomic targets of natural selection in the latter situation. In this study, we investigate genomic adaptation in populations of the three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus L. across a small‐scale ecological transition with salinities ranging from brackish to fresh. Adaptation to salinity has been repeatedly demonstrated in this species. A genome scan based on 87 microsatellite markers revealed only few signatures of selection, likely owing to the constraints that homogenizing gene flow puts on adaptive divergence. However, the detected loci appear repeatedly as targets of selection in similar studies of genomic adaptation in the three‐spined stickleback. We conclude that the signature of genomic selection in the face of strong gene flow is weak, yet detectable. We argue that the range of studies of genomic divergence should be extended to include more systems characterized by limited geographical and ecological isolation, which is often a realistic setting in nature.     

Increased risk of cyanobacterial blooms in northern high‐latitude lakes through climate warming and phosphorus enrichment

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Regulation of eye and jaw colouration in three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus

Fish can change their skin and eye colour for background matching and signalling. Males of Gasterosteus aculeatus develop ornamental blue eyes and a red jaw during the reproductive season, colours that are further enhanced during courtship. Here, the effects of different hormones on physiological colour changes in the eyes and jaws of male and female G. aculeatus were investigated in vitro. In an in vivo experiment, G. aculeatus were injected with a receptor blocker of a pivotal hormone (noradrenaline) that controls colour change. In males, noradrenaline had aggregating effects on melanophore and erythrophore pigments resulting in blue eyes and a pale jaw, whereas melanocyte‐concentrating hormone (MCH) and melatonin resulted in a pale jaw only. When noradrenalin was combined with melanocyte stimulating hormone (MSH) or prolactin, the jaw became red, while the eyes remained blue. In vivo injection of yohimbine, an alpha‐2 adrenoreceptor blocker, resulted in dispersion of melanophore pigment in the eyes and inhibited the blue colouration. Altogether, the data suggest that noradrenalin has a pivotal role in the short‐term enhancement of the ornamental colouration of male G. aculeatus, potentially together with MSH or prolactin. This study also found a sex difference in the response to MCH, prolactin and melatonin, which may result from different appearance strategies in males, versus the more cryptic females.     

Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish,the three‐spine stickleback

High‐latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice‐free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life‐history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five‐decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three‐spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state‐space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con‐ and heterospecifics) factors. As predicted, mean size of age 1 and older fish at the end of the growing season increased across years with earlier ice breakup and warmer temperatures. In contrast, mean size of age 0 fish decreased over time. Overall, lower fish density and warmer water temperatures were associated with larger size for all cohorts. Earlier ice breakup was associated with larger size for age 1 and older fish but, paradoxically, with smaller size of age 0 fish. To explore this latter result, we used mixing models on age 0 size distributions, which revealed an additional cohort in years with early ice breakup, lowering the mean size of age 0 fish. Moreover, early ice breakup was associated with earlier breeding, evidenced by earlier capture of age 0 fish. Our results suggest that early ice breakup altered both timing and frequency of breeding; three‐spine stickleback spawned earlier and more often in response to earlier ice breakup date. While previous studies have shown the influence of changing conditions in northern lakes on breeding timing and growth, this is the first to document increased breeding frequency, highlighting another pathway by which climate change can alter the ecology of northern lakes.     

Non‐parallel divergence across freshwater and marine three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus populations

This work investigated whether multiple freshwater populations of three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus in different freshwater catchments in the Jutland Peninsula, Denmark, derived from the same marine populations show repeated adaptive responses. A total of 327 G. aculeatus collected at 13 sampling locations were screened for genetic variation using a combination of 70 genes putatively under selection and 26 neutral genes along with a marker linked to the ectodysplasin gene (eda), which is strongly correlated with plate armour morphs in the species. A highly significant genetic differentiation was found that was higher among different freshwater samples than between marine–freshwater samples. Tests for selection between marine and freshwater populations showed a very low degree of parallelism and no single nucleotide polymorphism was detected as outlier in all freshwater–marine pairwise comparisons, including the eda. This suggests that G. aculeatus is not necessarily the prime example of parallel local adaptation suggested in much of the literature and that important exceptions exist (i.e. the Jutland Peninsula). While marine populations in the results described here showed a high phenotype–genotype correlation at eda, a low association was found for most of the freshwater populations. The most extreme case was found in the freshwater Lake Hald where all low‐plated phenotypes were either homozygotes for the allele supposed to be associated with completely plated morphs or heterozygotes, but none were homozygotes for the putative low‐plated allele. Re‐examination of data from seven G. aculeatus studies agrees in showing a high but partial association between phenotype–genotype at eda in G. aculeatus freshwater populations and that mismatches occur everywhere in the European regions studied (higher in some areas, i.e. Denmark). This is independent of the eda marker used.     

How not to be seen: does eutrophication influence three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus sneaking behaviour?

Experiments done in aquaria under control and either turbid or densely vegetated conditions indicated that three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus sneaking behaviour is affected by decreased underwater visibility. Success of sneaking behaviour decreased significantly under increased turbidity but not increased vegetation density. The total number of sneaking attempts, including unsuccessful ones, was not affected by either form of decreasing visibility.     

Large‐scale impact of climate change vs. land‐use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.     

Watershed‐scale climate influences productivity of Chinook salmon populations across southcentral Alaska

The ecosystems supporting Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are changing rapidly as a result of climate change and habitat alteration. Understanding how—and how consistently—salmon populations respond to changes at regional and watershed scales has major implications for fisheries management and habitat conservation. Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) populations across Alaska have declined over the past decade, resulting in fisheries closures and prolonged impacts to local communities. These declines are associated with large‐scale climate drivers, but uncertainty remains about the role of local conditions (e.g., precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature) that vary among the watersheds where salmon spawn and rear. We estimated the effects of these and other environmental indicators on the productivity of 15 Chinook salmon populations in the Cook Inlet basin, southcentral Alaska, using a hierarchical Bayesian stock‐recruitment model. Salmon spawning during 2003–2007 produced 57% fewer recruits than the previous long‐term average, leading to declines in adult returns beginning in 2008. These declines were explained in part by density dependence, with reduced population productivity following years of high spawning abundance. Across all populations, productivity declined with increased precipitation during the fall spawning and early incubation period and increased with above‐average precipitation during juvenile rearing. Above‐average stream temperatures during spawning and rearing had variable effects, with negative relationships in many warmer streams and positive relationships in some colder streams. Productivity was also associated with regional indices of streamflow and ocean conditions, with high variability among populations. The cumulative effects of adverse conditions in freshwater, including high spawning abundance, heavy fall rains, and hot, dry summers may have contributed to the recent population declines across the region. Identifying both coherent and differential responses to environmental change underscores the importance of targeted, watershed‐specific monitoring and conservation efforts for maintaining resilient salmon runs in a warming world.     

Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries

Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters (subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted (negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence (in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

Body size‐dependent responses of a marine fish assemblage to climate change and fishing over a century‐long scale

Commercial fishing and climate change have influenced the composition of marine fish assemblages worldwide, but we require a better understanding of their relative influence on long‐term changes in species abundance and body‐size distributions. In this study, we investigated long‐term (1911–2007) variability within a demersal fish assemblage in the western English Channel. The region has been subject to commercial fisheries throughout most of the past century, and has undergone interannual changes in sea temperature of over 2.0 °C. We focussed on a core 30 species that comprised 99% of total individuals sampled in the assemblage. Analyses showed that temporal trends in the abundance of smaller multispecies size classes followed thermal regime changes, but that there were persistent declines in abundance of larger size classes. Consistent with these results, larger‐growing individual species had the greatest declines in body size, and the most constant declines in abundance, while abundance changes of smaller‐growing species were more closely linked to preceding sea temperatures. Together these analyses are suggestive of dichotomous size‐dependent responses of species to long‐term climate change and commercial fishing over a century scale. Small species had rapid responses to the prevailing thermal environment, suggesting their life history traits predisposed populations to respond quickly to changing climates. Larger species declined in abundance and size, reflecting expectations from sustained size‐selective overharvesting. These results demonstrate the importance of considering species traits when developing indicators of human and climatic impacts on marine fauna.     

Influence of local climate and climate change on aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms

Aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms colonize natural and man-made surfaces and may damage the material they settle on. The occurrence of biofilms varies between regions with different climatic conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the growth of aeroterrestrial phototrophs. Phototrophic biomass was recorded on roof tiles at six sites within Germany five times over a period of five years and compared to climatic parameters from neighboring weather stations. All correlating meteorological factors influenced water availability on the surface of the roof tiles. The results indicate that the frequency of rainy days and not the mean precipitation per season is more important for biofilm proliferation. It is also inferred that the macroclimate is more important than the microclimate. In conclusion, changed (regional) climatic conditions may determine where in central Europe global change will promote or inhibit phototrophic growth in the future.     

Depth‐specific responses of a chironomid assemblage to contrasting anthropogenic pressures: a palaeolimnological perspective from the last 150 years

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Geographic and host‐mediated population genetic structure in a cestode parasite of the three‐spined stickleback

Comparative studies of genetic diversity and population structure can shed light on the ecological and evolutionary factors that influence host–parasite interactions. Here we examined whether geography, time and genetic variation in Alaskan three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus Linneaus) hosts shape the population genetic structure of the diphyllobothridean cestode parasite Schistocephalus solidus (Müller, 1776). Host lineages and haplotypes were identified by sequencing the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene, and host population structure was assessed by Bayesian clustering analysis of allelic variation at 11 microsatellite loci. Parasite population structure was characterized according to allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci. Mantel tests and canonical redundancy analysis were conducted to evaluate the proportion of parasite genetic variation attributable to time and geography vs. host lineage, haplotype, and genotypic cluster. Host and parasite population structure were largely discordant across the study area, probably reflecting differences in gene flow, environmental influences external to the host, and genomic admixture among host lineages. We found that geography explained the greatest proportion of parasite genetic variation, but that variation also reflects time, host lineage, and host haplotype. Associations with host haplotypes suggest that one parasite genotypic cluster exhibits a narrower host range, predominantly infecting the most common host haplotypes, whereas the other parasite cluster infects all haplotypes equally, including rare haplotypes. Although experimental infection trials might prove otherwise, distributional differences in hosts preferentially infected by S. solidus could underlie the observed pattern of population structure.     

Reproductive potential of Schistocephalus solidus‐infected male three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus from two U.K. populations

Male three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus from two U.K. populations with endemic infections of the cestode Schistocephalus solidus were brought into the laboratory prior to the breeding season and transferred to nesting tanks under conditions designed to stimulate sexual maturation. Nesting and courtship behaviours were scored over a 35 day period, after which fish were euthanized and the liver, spleen, kidney and gonads were weighed. Among G. aculeatus from a park pond in Leicester, U.K., infected males rarely engaged in reproductive behaviours and exhibited reduced indices of sexual development, body condition and general health, with effects being largely independent of relative parasite mass (parasite index, I_P). In contrast, the reproductive behaviour of infected fish from Kendoon Loch in Dumfriesshire, U.K. appeared to be less severely affected, with infected fish regularly building nests and courting females under laboratory conditions. This was paralleled by a more limited effect of infection on physiological indicators of development, condition and general health. Furthermore, behavioural and physiological variables typically correlated with I_P among infected fish from this population. Although comparing the performance of infected fish from the two populations directly was difficult due to potentially confounding factors, the results support the findings of recent studies showing that the effects of S. solidus on host reproduction are unlikely to be uniform across G. aculeatus populations. One possibility is that variation in the effects of infection arises from differences in the co‐evolutionary association times of G. aculeatus with the parasite.     

Fine‐scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming

The existence of fine‐grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed ‘microrefugia’. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine‐grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977–2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long‐term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north‐east‐facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost‐free season varied from +11 to ?54 days and the increase in annual growing degree‐days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west‐facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change.     

Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the predicted impacts of climate change on human populations

Aim It has been qualitatively understood for a long time that climate change will have widely varying effects on human well‐being in different regions of the world. The spatial complexities underlying our relationship to climate and the geographical disparities in human demographic change have, however, precluded the development of global indices of the predicted regional impacts of climate change on humans. Humans will be most negatively affected by climate change in regions where populations are strongly dependent on climate and favourable climatic conditions decline. Here we use the relationship between the distribution of human population density and climate as a basis to develop the first global index of predicted impacts of climate change on human populations. Location Global. Methods We use spatially explicit models of the present relationship between human population density and climate along with forecasted climate change to predict climate vulnerabilities over the coming decades. We then globally represent regional disparities in human population dynamics estimated with our ecological niche model and with a demographic forecast and contrast these disparities with CO₂ emissions data to quantitatively evaluate the notion of moral hazard in climate change policies. Results Strongly negative impacts of climate change are predicted in Central America, central South America, the Arabian Peninsula, Southeast Asia and much of Africa. Importantly, the regions of greatest vulnerability are generally distant from the high‐latitude regions where the magnitude of climate change will be greatest. Furthermore, populations contributing the most to greenhouse gas emissions on a per capita basis are unlikely to experience the worst impacts of climate change, satisfying the conditions for a moral hazard in climate change policies. Main conclusions Regionalized analysis of relationships between distribution of human population density and climate provides a novel framework for developing global indices of human vulnerability to climate change. The predicted consequences of climate change on human populations are correlated with the factors causing climate change at the regional level, providing quantitative support for many qualitative statements found in international climate change assessments.