Facility for studying the effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentration and increased temperature on crops

The requirements for the experimental study of the effects of global climate change conditions on plants are outlined. A semi-controlled plant growth facility is described which allows the study of elevated CO₂ and temperature, and their interaction on the growth of plants under radiation and temperature conditions similar to the field. During an experiment on winter wheat (cv. Mercia), which ran from December 1990 through to August 1991, the facility maintained mean daytime CO₂ concentrations of 363 and 692 cm³ m^?3 for targets of 350 and 700 cm³ m^?3 respectively. Temperatures were set to follow outside ambient or outside ambient +4°C, and hourly means were within 0.5°C of the target for 92% of the time for target temperatures greater than 6°C. Total photosynthetically active radiation incident on the crop (solar radiation supplemented by artifieal light with natural photoperiod) was 2% greater than the total measured outside over the same period.     

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and ozone alter soybean diseases at SoyFACE

Human driven changes in the Earth's atmospheric composition are likely to alter plant disease in the future. We evaluated the effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) and ozone (O₃) on three economically important soybean diseases (downy mildew, Septoria brown spot and sudden death syndrome‐SDS) under natural field conditions at the soybean free air concentration enrichment (SoyFACE) facility. Disease incidence and/or severity were quantified from 2005 to 2007 using visual surveys and digital image analysis, and changes were related to microclimatic variability and to structural and chemical changes in soybean host plants. Changes in atmospheric composition altered disease expression, but responses of the three pathosystems varied considerably. Elevated CO₂ alone or in combination with O₃ significantly reduced downy mildew disease severity (measured as area under the disease progress curve‐AUDPC) by 39–66% across the 3 years of the study. In contrast, elevated CO₂ alone or in combination with O₃ significantly increased brown spot severity in all 3 years, but the increase was small in magnitude. When brown spot severity was assessed in relation to differences in canopy height induced by the atmospheric treatments, disease severity increased under combined elevated CO₂ and O₃ treatment in only one of the 3 years. The atmospheric treatments had no effect on the incidence of SDS or brown spot throughout the study. Higher precipitation during the 2006 growing season was associated with increased AUDPC severity across all treatments by 2.7 and 1.4 times for downy mildew and brown spot, respectively, compared with drought conditions in 2005. In the 2 years with similar precipitation, the higher daily temperatures in the late spring of 2007 were associated with increased severity of downy mildew and brown spot. Elevated CO₂ and O₃ induced changes in the soybean canopy density and leaf age likely contributed to the disease expression modifications.     

Interactive effects of elevated carbon dioxide and growth temperature on photosynthesis in cotton leaves

Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L., cv DPL 5415) plants were grown in naturally lit environment chambers at day/night temperature regimes of 26/18 (T-26/18), 31/23 (T-31/23) and 36/28 °C (T-36/28) and CO2 concentrations of 350 (C-350), 450 (C-450) and 700 L L-1 (C-700). Net photosynthesis rates, stomatal conductance, transpiration, RuBP carboxylase activity and the foliar contents of starch and sucrose were measured during different growth stages. Net CO2 assimilation rates increased with increasing CO2 and temperature regimes. The enhancement of photosynthesis was from 24 mol CO2 m-2 s-1 (with C-350 and T-26/18) to 41 mol m-2 s-1 (with C-700 and T-36/28). Stomatal conductance decreased with increasing CO2 while it increased up to T-31/23 and then declined. The interactive effects of CO2 and temperature resulted in a 30% decrease in transpiration. Although the leaves grown in elevated CO2 had high starch and sucrose concentrations, their content decreased with increasing temperature. Increasing temperature from T-26/18 to 36/28 increased RuBP carboxylase activity in the order of 121, 172 and 190 mol mg-1 chl h-1 at C-350, C-450 and C-700 respectively. Our data suggest that leaf photosynthesis in cotton benefited more from CO_2 enrichment at warm temperatures than at low growth temperature regimes.     

Elevated CO2 reduces disease incidence and severity of a red maple fungal pathogen via changes in host physiology and leaf chemistry

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are predicted to double within the next century. Despite this trend, the extent and mechanisms through which elevated CO₂ affects plant diseases remain uncertain. In this study, we assessed how elevated CO₂ affects a foliar fungal pathogen, Phyllosticta minima, of Acer rubrum growing in the understory at the Duke Forest free‐air CO₂ enrichment experiment in Durham, North Carolina. Surveys of A. rubrum saplings in the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the CO₂ exposure revealed that elevated CO₂ significantly reduced disease incidence, with 22%, 27%, and 8% fewer saplings and 14%, 4%, and 5% fewer leaves infected per plant in the three consecutive years, respectively. Elevated CO₂ also significantly reduced disease severity in infected plants in all years (e.g. mean lesion area reduced 35%, 50%, and 10% in 2002, 2003, and 2004, respectively). To assess the mechanisms underlying these changes, we combined leaf structural, physiological and chemical analyses with growth chamber studies of P. minima growth and host infection. In vitro exponential growth rates of P. minima were enhanced by 17% under elevated CO₂, discounting the possibility that disease reductions were because of direct negative effects of elevated CO₂ on fungal performance. Scanning electron micrographs (SEM) verified that conidia germ tubes of P. minima infect A. rubrum leaves by entering through the stomata. While stomatal size and density were unchanged, stomatal conductance was reduced by 21–36% under elevated CO₂, providing smaller openings for infecting germ tubes. Reduced disease severity under elevated CO₂ was likely due to altered leaf chemistry and reduced nutritive quality; elevated CO₂ reduced leaf N by 20% and increased the C : N ratio by 20%, total phenolics by 15%, and tannins by 14% (P<0.05 for each factor). The potential dual mechanism we describe here of reduced stomatal opening and altered leaf chemistry that results in reduced disease incidence and severity under elevated CO₂ may be prevalent in many plant pathosystems where the pathogen targets the stomata.     

An oxygen-mediated positive feedback between elevated carbon dioxide and soil organic matter decomposition in a simulated anaerobic wetland

We examined the effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on soil carbon decomposition in an experimental anaerobic wetland system. Pots containing either bare C₄‐derived soil or the C₃ sedge Scirpus olneyi planted in C₄‐derived soil were incubated in greenhouse chambers at either ambient or twice‐ambient atmospheric CO₂. We measured CO₂ flux from each pot, quantified soil organic matter (SOM) mineralization using δ¹³C, and determined root and shoot biomass. SOM mineralization increased in response to elevated CO₂ by 83–218% (P<0.0001). In addition, soil redox potential was significantly and positively correlated with root biomass (P= 0.003). Our results (1) show that there is a positive feedback between elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and wetland SOM decomposition and (2) suggest that this process is mediated by the release of oxygen from the roots of wetland plants. Because this feedback may occur in any wetland system, including peatlands, these results suggest a limitation on the size of the carbon sink presented by anaerobic wetland soils in a future elevated‐CO₂ atmosphere.     

Accumulation of phenolic compounds in birch leaves is changed by elevated carbon dioxide and ozone

Atmospheric change may affect plant phenolic compounds, which play an important part in plant survival. Therefore, we studied the impacts of CO₂ and O₃ on the accumulation of 27 phenolic compounds in the short‐shoot leaves of two European silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) clones (clones 4 and 80). Seven‐year‐old soil‐grown trees were exposed in open‐top chambers over three growing seasons to ambient and twice ambient CO₂ and O₃ concentrations singly and in combination in central Finland. Elevated CO₂ increased the concentration of the phenolic acids (+25%), myricetin glycosides (+18%), catechin derivatives (+13%) and soluble condensed tannins (+19%) by increasing their accumulation in the leaves of the silver birch trees, but decreased the flavone aglycons (?7%) by growth dilution. Elevated O₃ increased the concentration of 3,4′‐dihydroxypropiophenone 3‐β‐d ‐glucoside (+22%), chlorogenic acid (+19%) and flavone aglycons (+4%) by inducing their accumulation possibly as a response to increased oxidative stress in the leaf cells. Nevertheless, this induction of antioxidant phenolic compounds did not seem to protect the birch leaves from detrimental O₃ effects on leaf weight and area, but may have even exacerbated them. On the other hand, elevated CO₂ did seem to protect the leaves from elevated O₃ because all the O₃‐derived effects on the leaf phenolics and traits were prevented by elevated CO₂. The effects of the chamber and elevated CO₂ on some compounds changed over time in response to the changes in the leaf traits, which implies that the trees were acclimatizing to the altered environmental conditions. Although the two clones used possessed different composition and concentrations of phenolic compounds, which could be related to their different latitudinal origin and physiological characteristics, they responded similarly to the treatments. However, in some cases the variation in phenolic concentrations caused by genotype or chamber environment was much larger than the changes caused by either elevated CO₂ or O₃.     

Impact of elevated carbon dioxide on the rhizosphere communities of Carex arenaria and Festuca rubra

The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels is predicted to stimulate plant carbon (C) fixation, potentially influencing the size, structure and function of micro- and mesofaunal communities inhabiting the rhizosphere. To assess the effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ on bacterial, fungal and nematode communities in the rhizosphere, Carex arenaria (a nonmycorrhizal plant species) and Festuca rubra (a mycorrhizal plant species) were grown in three dune soils under controlled soil temperature and moisture conditions, while subjecting the aboveground compartment to defined atmospheric conditions differing in CO₂ concentrations (350 and 700 μL L⁻¹). Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and PCR-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis methods were used to examine effects on the size and structure of rhizosphere communities. Multivariate analysis of community profiles showed that bacteria were most affected by elevated CO₂, and fungi and nematodes to a lesser extent. The influence of elevated CO₂ was plant dependent, with the mycorrhizal plant ( F. rubra ) exerting a greater influence on bacterial and fungal communities. Biomarker data indicated that arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) may play an important role in the observed soil community responses. Effects of elevated CO₂ were also soil dependent, with greater influence observed in the more organic-rich soils, which also supported higher levels of AMF colonization. These results indicate that responses of soil-borne communities to elevated CO₂ are different for bacteria, fungi and nematodes and dependent on the plant type and soil nutrient availability.     

Potential effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on benthic autotrophs and consumers in stream ecosystems: a test using experimental stream mesocosms

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO₂) has been shown to have a variety of ecosystem‐level effects in terrestrial systems, but few studies have examined how eCO₂ might affect aquatic habitats. This limits broad generalizations about the effects of a changing climate across biomes. To broaden this generalization, we used free air CO₂ enrichment to compare effects of eCO₂ (i.e., double ambient ～720 ppm) relative to ambient CO₂ (aCO₂～360 ppm) on several ecosystem properties and functions in large, outdoor, experimental mesocosms that mimicked shallow sand‐bottom prairie streams. In general, we showed that eCO₂ had strong bottom‐up effects on stream autotrophs, which moved through the food web and indirectly affected consumer trophic levels. These general effects were likely mediated by differential CO₂ limitation between the eCO₂ and aCO₂ treatments. For example, we found that eCO₂ decreased water‐column pH and increased dissolved CO₂ in the mesocosms, reducing CO₂‐limitation at times of intense primary production (PP). At these times, PP of benthic algae was about two times greater in the eCO₂ treatment than aCO₂ treatment. Elevated PP enhanced the rate of carbon assimilation relative to nutrient uptake, which reduced algae quality in the eCO₂ treatment. We predicted that reduced algae quality would negatively affect benthic invertebrates. However, density, biomass and average individual size of benthic invertebrates increased in the eCO₂ treatment relative to aCO₂ treatment. This suggested that total PP was a more important regulator of secondary production than food quality in our experiment. This study broadens generalizations about ecosystem‐level effects of a changing climate by providing some of the first evidence that the global increase in atmospheric CO₂ might affect autotrophs and consumers in small stream ecosystems throughout the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coastal slope of North America.     

Effects of elevated carbon dioxide and ozone on aphid oviposition preference and birch bud exudate phenolics

The effect of atmospheric change on birch aphid ( Euceraphis betulae Koch) oviposition preference was examined and plant characteristics that are possibly responsible for the observed effects were investigated. It was hypothesized that the increasing concentrations of CO₂ and O₃ affect singly or in combination the oviposition of birch aphids via changes in host plant characteristics. Two genotypes of field-growing silver birch ( Betula pendula Roth) trees (clones 4 and 80), which were exposed to doubled ambient concentration of CO₂ and O₃, singly and in combination, in a 3-year open-top chamber experiment, were used in an aphid oviposition preference test. It was found that elevated CO₂, irrespective of ozone concentration, increased the number of aphid eggs laid on clone 4, but not in clone 80. Several flavonoid aglycones were identified from the exudate coating of birch buds. Although elevated CO₂ and O₃ affected these phenolic compounds in clone 4, the effects did not correlate with the observed changes in aphid oviposition. It is suggested that neither bud length, which was not affected by the treatments, nor surface exudate phenolics mediate birch aphid oviposition preference.     

Genetic variation in expression of defense phenotype may mediate evolutionary adaptation of Asclepias syriaca to elevated CO2

How species interactions may modify the effects of environmental change on evolutionary adaptation is poorly understood. Elevated CO₂ is known to alter plant–herbivore interactions, but the evolutionary consequences for plant populations have received little attention. We conducted an experiment to determine the effects of elevated CO₂ and herbivory by a specialist insect herbivore (Danaus plexippus) on the expression of constitutive and induced plant defense traits in five genotypes of Asclepias syriaca, and assessed the heritability of these traits. We also examined changes in relative fitness among plant genotypes in response to altered CO₂ and herbivory. The expression of plant defense traits varied significantly among genotypes. Elevated CO₂ increased plant growth and physical defenses (toughness and latex), but decreased investment in chemical defenses (cardenolides). We found no effect of elevated CO₂ on plant induction of cardenolides in response to caterpillar herbivory. Elevated CO₂ decreased the expression of chemical defenses (cardenolides) to a different extent depending on plant genotype. Differential effects of CO₂ on plant defense expression, rather than direct effects on relative fitness, may alter A. syriaca adaptation to changing climate.     

Consequences of simultaneous elevation of carbon dioxide and temperature for plant–herbivore interactions: a metaanalysis

The effects of elevated carbon dioxide on plant–herbivore interactions have been summarized in a number of narrative reviews and metaanalyses, while accompanying elevation of temperature has not received sufficient attention. The goal of our study is to search, by means of metaanalysis, for a general pattern in responses of herbivores, and plant characteristics important for herbivores, to simultaneous experimental increase of carbon dioxide and temperature (ECET) in comparison with both ambient conditions and responses to elevated CO₂ (EC) and temperature (ET) applied separately. Our database includes 42 papers describing studies of 31 plant species and seven herbivore species. Nitrogen concentration and C/N ratio in plants decreased under both EC and ECET treatments, whereas ET had no significant effect. Concentrations of nonstructural carbohydrates and phenolics increased in EC, decreased in ET and did not change in ECET treatments, whereas terpenes did not respond to EC but increased in both ET and ECET; leaf toughness increased in both EC and ECET. Responses of defensive secondary compounds to treatments differed between woody and green tissues as well as between gymnosperm and angiosperm plants. Insect herbivore performance was adversely affected by EC, favoured by ET, and not modified by ECET. Our analysis allowed to distinguish three types of relationships between CO₂ and temperature elevation: (1) responses to EC do not depend on temperature (nitrogen, C/N, leaf toughness, phenolics in angiosperm leaves), (2) responses to EC are mitigated by ET (sugars and starch, terpenes in needles of gymnosperms, insect performance) and (3) effects emerge only under ECET (nitrogen in gymnosperms, and phenolics and terpenes in woody tissues). This result indicates that conclusions of CO₂ elevation studies cannot be directly extrapolated to a more realistic climate change scenario. The predicted negative effects of CO₂ elevation on herbivores are likely to be mitigated by temperature increase.     

Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature-grown red and sugar maple on gypsy moth performance

Few studies have investigated how tree species grown under elevated CO₂ and elevated temperature alter the performance of leaf‐feeding insects. The indirect effects of an elevated CO₂ concentration and temperature on leaf phytochemistry, along with potential direct effects on insect growth and consumption, may independently or interactively affect insects. To investigate this, we bagged larvae of the gypsy moth on leaves of red and sugar maple growing in open‐top chambers in four CO₂/temperature treatment combinations: (i) ambient temperature, ambient CO₂; (ii) ambient temperature, elevated CO₂ (+ 300 μL L^?1 CO₂); (iii) elevated temperature (+ 3.5°C), ambient CO₂; and (iv) elevated temperature, elevated CO₂. For both tree species, leaves grown at elevated CO₂ concentration were significantly reduced in leaf nitrogen concentration and increased in C: N ratio, while neither temperature nor its interaction with CO₂ concentration had any effect. Depending on the tree species, leaf water content declined (red maple) and carbon‐based phenolics increased (sugar maple) on plants grown in an enriched CO₂ atmosphere. The only observed effect of elevated temperature on leaf phytochemistry was a reduction in leaf water content of sugar maple leaves. Gypsy moth larval responses were dependent on tree species. Larvae feeding on elevated CO₂‐grown red maple leaves had reduced growth, while temperature had no effect on the growth or consumption of larvae. No significant effects of either temperature or CO₂ concentration were observed for larvae feeding on sugar maple leaves. Our data demonstrate strong effects of CO₂ enrichment on leaf phytochemical constituents important to folivorous insects, while an elevated temperature largely has little effect. We conclude that alterations in leaf chemistry due to an elevated CO₂ atmosphere are more important in this plant–folivorous insect system than either the direct short‐term effects of temperature on insect performance or its indirect effects on leaf chemistry.     

Effects of shading in different developmental phases on biomass and grain yield of winter wheat at ambient and elevated CO2

Winter wheat (Triticum aestivuin cv. Mercia) was grown in a controlled-environment facility under simulated Held conditions at ambient (360μmol mol^?1) and elevated (690 μmol mol^?1) CO₂ concentrations. Some of the plants were shaded to mimic cloudy conditions during three periods of about 20d duration between terminal spikelet and start of grain-fill, giving 16 treatments in all. Elevated CO₂, increased grain yield by about 20%, while shading in any period decreased yield, with the greatest effect in the last period, encompassing anthesis. No interactions between these effects were significant for grain yield, but there were complex interactions for mean grain size. Observed effects of shading and elevated CO₂ on biomass production were well predicted by a simulation model. Observed effects of treatments on yield could be related to effects on biomass using a simple model which assumes that yield is proportional to biomass production, with coefficients of 0.42 (g grain yield g^?1 biomass) for the first two periods and 0.74 for the last period. Wheat models should therefore include developmental changes in sensitivity of yield to biomass production, but biomass changes induced by different CO₂ concentrations or light environments can be treated as having equivalent effects on grain yield.     

The likely impact of elevated [CO2], nitrogen deposition, increased temperature and management on carbon sequestration in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems: a literature review

Temperate and boreal forest ecosystems contain a large part of the carbon stored on land, in the form of both biomass and soil organic matter. Increasing atmospheric [CO2], increasing temperature, elevated nitrogen deposition and intensified management will change this C store. Well documented single-factor responses of net primary production are: higher photosynthetic rate (the main [CO2] response); increasing length of growing season (the main temperature response); and higher leaf-area index (the main N deposition and partly [CO2] response). Soil organic matter will increase with increasing litter input, although priming may decrease the soil C stock initially, but litter quality effects should be minimal (response to [CO2], N deposition, and temperature); will decrease because of increasing temperature; and will increase because of retardation of decomposition with N deposition, although the rate of decomposition of high-quality litter can be increased and that of low-quality litter decreased. Single-factor responses can be misleading because of interactions between factors, in particular those between N and other factors, and indirect effects such as increased N availability from temperature-induced decomposition. In the long term the strength of feedbacks, for example the increasing demand for N from increased growth, will dominate over short-term responses to single factors. However, management has considerable potential for controlling the C store.     

An independent method of deriving the carbon dioxide fertilization effect in dry conditions using historical yield data from wet and dry years

Accurate estimates of the fertilization effect that elevated carbon dioxide [CO₂] has on crop yields are valuable for estimation of future crop production, yet there is still some controversy over these estimates due to possible CO₂‐by‐water‐status interactions in chamber studies and the difficulty of conducting field experiments with elevated [CO₂]. This study presents a new method to estimate the CO₂ fertilization effect (CFE) in dry conditions (CFE_dry), based on a combination of historical yield and climatic data and field experiments that do not require elevated [CO₂]. It was estimated that approximately 50 years of increasing [CO₂] (i.e., a 73 ppm increase) resulted in a 9% and 14% improvement of yield in dry conditions for maize and soybean, respectively, which are similar to estimates derived from free air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) studies. The main source of uncertainty in this approach relates to differential effects of technology trends such as new cultivars in wet vs. dry years. Estimates of this technology–water interaction can be refined by further experimentation under ambient [CO₂], offering a cost‐effective path for improving CFE estimates. The results should prove useful for modeling future yield impacts of climate change, and the approach could be used to derive estimates for other species using relatively simple yield trials.     

Effects of carbon dioxide concentration on the interactive effects of temperature and water vapour on stomatal conductance in soybean

Soybeans were grown at three CO₂ concentrations in outdoor growth chambers and at two concentrations in controlled-environment growth chambers to investigate the interactive effects of CO₂, temperature and leaf-to-air vapour pressure difference (LAVPD) on stomatal conductance. The decline in stomatal conductance with CO₂ was a function of both leaf temperature and LAVPD. In the field measurements, stomatal conductance was more sensitive to LAVPD at low CO₂ at 30 °C but not at 35 °C. There was also a direct increase in conductance with temperature, which was greater at the two elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. Environmental growth chamber results showed that the relative stomatal sensitivity to LAVPD decreased with both leaf temperature and CO₂. Measurements in the environmental growth chamber were also performed at the opposing CO₂, and these experiments indicate that the stomatal sensitivity to LAVPD was determined more by growth CO₂ than by measurement CO₂. Two models that describe stomatal responses to LAVPD were compared with the outdoor data to evaluate whether these models described adequately the interactive effects of CO₂, LAVPD and temperature.     

Effects of an experimental drought on soil emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and nitric oxide in a moist tropical forest

Changes in precipitation in the Amazon Basin resulting from regional deforestation, global warming, and El Niño events may affect emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), and nitric oxide (NO) from soils. Changes in soil emissions of radiatively important gases could have feedback implications for regional and global climates. Here we report results of a large‐scale (1 ha) throughfall exclusion experiment conducted in a mature evergreen forest near Santarém, Brazil. The exclusion manipulation lowered annual N₂O emissions by >40% and increased rates of consumption of atmospheric CH₄ by a factor of >4. No treatment effect has yet been detected for NO and CO₂ fluxes. The responses of these microbial processes after three rainy seasons of the exclusion treatment are characteristic of a direct effect of soil aeration on denitrification, methanogenesis, and methanotrophy. An anticipated second phase response, in which drought‐induced plant mortality is followed by increased mineralization of C and N substrates from dead fine roots and by increased foraging of termites on dead coarse roots, has not yet been detected. Analyses of depth profiles of N₂O and CO₂ concentrations with a diffusivity model revealed that the top 25 cm soil is the site of most of the wet season production of N₂O, whereas significant CO₂ production occurs down to 100 cm in both seasons, and small production of CO₂ occurs to at least 1100 cm depth. The diffusivity‐based estimates of CO₂ production as a function of depth were strongly correlated with fine root biomass, indicating that trends in belowground C allocation may be inferred from monitoring and modeling profiles of H₂O and CO₂.     

The role of amoeboid protists and the microbial community in moss-rich terrestrial ecosystems: biogeochemical implications for the carbon budget and carbon cycle, especially at higher latitudes

Moss-rich terrestrial communities are widely distributed in low- and high-latitude environments, covering vast surface areas in the boreal forests and tundra. The microbial biota in these organic-rich communities may contribute substantially to the carbon budget of terrestrial communities and the carbon cycle on a global scale. Recent research is reported on the carbon content of microbial communities in some temperate and high-latitude moss communities. The total carbon content and potential respiratory carbon dioxide (CO(2)) efflux is reported for bacteria, microflagellates, naked amoebae, and testate amoebae within sampling sites at a northeastern forest and the tundra at Toolik, Alaska. Quantitative models of the predicted total CO(2) efflux from the microbes, based on microscopic observations and enumeration of the microbiota in samples from the research sites, are described and predictions are compared with published field-based data of CO(2) efflux. The significance of the predictions for climate change and global warming are discussed.     

Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO2 and crop yields since 1961

The effect of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) on crop yields is one of the most uncertain and influential parameters in models used to assess climate change impacts and adaptations. A primary reason for this uncertainty is the limited availability of experimental data on CO₂ responses for crops grown under typical field conditions. However, because of historical variations in CO₂, each year farmers throughout the world perform uncontrolled yield ‘experiments’ under different levels of CO₂. In this study, measurements of atmospheric CO₂ growth rates and crop yields for individual countries since 1961 were compared to empirically determine the average effect of a 1 ppm increase of CO₂ on yields of rice, wheat, and maize. Because the gradual increase in CO₂ is highly correlated with major changes in technology, management, and other yield controlling factors, we focused on first differences of CO₂ and yield time series. Estimates of CO₂ responses obtained from this approach were highly uncertain, reflecting the relatively small importance of year‐to‐year CO₂ changes for yield variability. Combining estimates from the top 20 countries for each crop resulted in estimates with substantially less uncertainty than from any individual country. The results indicate that while current datasets cannot reliably constrain estimates beyond previous experimental studies, an empirical approach supported by large amounts of data may provide a potentially valuable and independent assessment of this critical model parameter. For example, analysis of reliable yield records from hundreds of individual, independent locations (as opposed to national scale yield records with poorly defined errors) may result in empirical estimates with useful levels of uncertainty to complement estimates from experimental studies.