Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO₂ levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single‐pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.     

Mineral control of organic carbon mineralization in a range of temperate conifer forest soils

Coupled climate–ecosystem models predict significant alteration of temperate forest biome distribution in response to climate warming. Temperate forest biomes contain approximately 10% of global soil carbon (C) stocks and therefore any change in their distribution may have significant impacts on terrestrial C budgets. Using the Sierra Nevada as a model system for temperate forest soils, we examined the effects of temperature and soil mineralogy on soil C mineralization. We incubated soils from three conifer biomes dominated by ponderosa pine (PP), white fir (WF), and red fir (RF) tree species, on granite (GR), basalt (BS), and andesite (AN) parent materials, at three temperatures (12.5°C, 7.5°C, 5.0°C). AN soils were dominated by noncrystalline materials (allophane, Al‐humus complexes), GR soils by crystalline minerals (kaolinite, vermiculite), and BS soils by a mix of crystalline and noncrystalline materials. Soil C mineralization (ranging from 1.9 to 34.6 [mg C (g soil C)^?1] or 0.1 to 2.3 [mg C (g soil)^?1]) differed significantly between parent materials in all biomes with a general pattern of ANδ¹³C values of respired CO₂ suggest greater decomposition of recalcitrant soil C compounds with increasing temperature, indicating a shift in primary C source utilization with temperature. Our results demonstrate that soil mineralogy moderates soil C mineralization and that soil C response to temperature includes shifts in decomposition rates, mineralizable pool size, and primary C source utilization.     

An empirical model of carbon fluxes in Russian tundra

This study presents an empirical model based on a GIS approach, which was constructed to estimate the large‐scale carbon fluxes over the entire Russian tundra zone. The model has four main blocks: (i) the computer map of tundra landscapes; (ii) data base of long‐term weather records; (iii) the submodel of phytomass seasonal dynamics; and (iv) the submodel of carbon fluxes. The model uses exclusively original in situ diurnal CO₂ flux chamber measurements (423 sample plots) conducted during six field seasons (1993–98). The research sites represent the main tundra biome landscapes (arctic, typical, south shrub and mountain tundras) in the latitudinal diapason of 65–74°N and longitudinal profile of 63°E?172°W. The greatest possible diversity of major ecosystem types within the different landscapes was investigated. The majority of the phytomass data used was obtained from the same sample plots. The submodel of carbon fluxes has two dependent [GPP, Gross Respiration (GR)] and several input variables (air temperature, PAR, aboveground phytomass components). The model demonstrates a good correspondence with other independent regional and biome estimates and carbon flux seasonal patterns. The annual GPP of Russian tundra zone for the area of 235 × 10⁶ ha was estimated as ?485.8 ± 34.6 × 10⁶ tC, GR as +474.2 ± 35.0 × 10⁶ tC, and NF as ?11.6 ± 40.8 × 10⁶ tC, which possibly corresponds to an equilibrium state of carbon balance during the climatic period studied (the first half of the 20th century). The results advocate that simple regression‐based models are useful for extrapolating carbon fluxes from small to large spatial scales.     

The likely impact of elevated [CO2], nitrogen deposition, increased temperature and management on carbon sequestration in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems: a literature review

Temperate and boreal forest ecosystems contain a large part of the carbon stored on land, in the form of both biomass and soil organic matter. Increasing atmospheric [CO2], increasing temperature, elevated nitrogen deposition and intensified management will change this C store. Well documented single-factor responses of net primary production are: higher photosynthetic rate (the main [CO2] response); increasing length of growing season (the main temperature response); and higher leaf-area index (the main N deposition and partly [CO2] response). Soil organic matter will increase with increasing litter input, although priming may decrease the soil C stock initially, but litter quality effects should be minimal (response to [CO2], N deposition, and temperature); will decrease because of increasing temperature; and will increase because of retardation of decomposition with N deposition, although the rate of decomposition of high-quality litter can be increased and that of low-quality litter decreased. Single-factor responses can be misleading because of interactions between factors, in particular those between N and other factors, and indirect effects such as increased N availability from temperature-induced decomposition. In the long term the strength of feedbacks, for example the increasing demand for N from increased growth, will dominate over short-term responses to single factors. However, management has considerable potential for controlling the C store.     

The effects of temperature, river flow, and tidal cycles on the onset of glass eel and elver migration into fresh water in the American eel

Anguilla rostrata elvers were collected in the Annaquatucket R., Rhode Island, and their otoliths extracted. Daily increments beyond the check mark formed upon entry into fresh water were counted and the date of freshwater entry was estimated. The effects of river temperature, difference between seawater and freshwater temperature, river flow and tidal stage on the number of elvers arriving on each date were estimated for six collection dates. At the earliest collection date (23 March), increasing river temperatures and reduced flow increased elver migration. At later dates (16 May-12 June), tidal stage was the most important factor in determining the magnitude of elver migration.     

Irrigation and enhanced soil carbon input effects on below-ground carbon cycling in semiarid temperate grasslands

Global climate change is generally expected to increase net primary production, resulting in increased soil carbon (C) inputs. To gain an understanding of how such increased soil C inputs would affect C cycling in the vast grasslands of northern China, we conducted a field experiment in which the responses of plant and microbial biomass and respiration were studied. Our experiment included the below-ground addition of particulate organic matter (POM) at rates equivalent to 0, 60, 120 and 240 g C m(-2), under either natural precipitation or under enhanced precipitation during the summer period (as predicted for that region in recent simulations using general circulation models). We observed that addition of POM had a large effect on soil microbial biomass and activity and that a major part of the added C was rapidly lost from the system. This suggests that microbial activity in the vast temperate grassland ecosystems of northern China is energy-limited. Moreover, POM addition (and the associated nutrient release) affected plant growth much more than the additional water input. Although we performed no direct fertilization experiments, the response of plant productivity to POM addition (and associated release of nutrients) leads us to believe that plant productivity in the semiarid grassland ecosystems of northern China is primarily limited by nutrients and not by water.     

The role of temperature and dispersal in moss-microarthropod community assembly after a catastrophic event

There is a clear crisis in the maintenance of biodiversity. It has been generated by a multitude of factors, notably habitat loss, now compounded by the effects of climate change. Predicted changes in climate include increased severity and frequency of extreme climatic events. To manage landscapes, an understanding of the processes that allow recovery from these extreme events is required. Understanding these landscape-scale processes of community assembly and disassembly is hindered by the large scales at which they operate. Model systems provide a means of studying landscape scale processes at tractable scales. Here, we assess the combined effects of temperature and habitat-patch isolation on assembly of naturally diverse moss microarthropod communities after a high-temperature event. We show that community assembly depends on temperature and on degree of habitat isolation. Heated communities were heavily dominated in abundance by two species, one of them relatively large. The resulting size-structure is unlike that seen in the field. Community composition in habitat fragments appears also to have been influenced by the source pool of recolonizing fauna. Our results highlight the value of dispersal in disturbed landscapes and the potential for habitat connectivity to buffer communities from the effects of climate change.     

Trends in water quality and discharge confound long-term warming effects on river macroinvertebrates

1. Climate‐change effects on rivers and streams might interact with other pressures, such as pollution, but long‐term investigations are scarce. We assessed trends among macroinvertebrates in 50 southern English streams in relation to temperature, discharge and water quality over 18 years (1989–2007). 2. Long‐term records, coupled with estimates from inter‐site calibrations of 3–4 years, showed that mean stream temperatures in the study area had increased by 2.1–2.9 °C in winter and 1.1–1.5 °C in summer over the 26 year period from 1980 to 2006, with trends in winter strongest. 3. While invertebrate assemblages in surface‐fed streams were constant, those in chalk‐streams changed significantly during 1989–2007. Invertebrate trends correlated significantly with temperature, but effects were spurious because (i) assemblages gained taxa typical of faster flow or well‐oxygenated conditions, contrary to expectations from warming; (ii) more invertebrate families increased in abundance than declined and (iii) concomitant changes in water quality (e.g. declining orthophosphate, ammonia and biochemical oxygen demand), or at some sites changes in discharge, explained more variation in invertebrate abundance and composition than did temperature. 4. These patterns were reconfirmed in both group‐ and site‐specific analyses. 5. We conclude that recent winter‐biased warming in southern English chalk‐streams has been insufficient to affect invertebrates negatively over a period of improving water quality. This implies that positive management can minimize some climate‐change impacts on stream ecosystems. Chalk‐stream invertebrates are sensitive, nevertheless, to variations in discharge, and detectable changes could occur if climate change alters flow pattern. 6. Because climatic trends now characterize many inter‐annual time‐series, we caution other investigators to examine whether putative effects on ecological systems are real or linked spuriously to other causes of change.     

Climate change and Cognettia sphagnetorum: effects on carbon dynamics in organic soils

1. A microcosm experiment was performed to test the impacts of Cognettia sphagnetorum on carbon leaching in a cambic stagnohumic gley soil.
2. Leaching of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was significantly enhanced by C.sphagnetorum, with the greatest effect being found in the upper, 0–6 cm, soil layers. The ratio of DOC to dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) in the leachate decreased in faunated systems, indicating that the enchytraeids were mobilizing carbon from organic matter with a low C to N ratio.
3. The vertical distribution of the enchytraeids had an effect on the production of DOC, and this vertical distribution is affected strongly by climate. It is proposed that increases in DOC found in a field soil-warming experiment with the same soil are largely a result of changes in the vertical distribution of these organisms.     

Soil temperature affects carbon allocation within arbuscular mycorrhizal networks and carbon transport from plant to fungus

How soil carbon balance will be affected by plant–mycorrhizal interactions under future climate scenarios remains a significant unknown in our ability to forecast ecosystem carbon storage and fluxes. We examined the effects of soil temperature (14, 20, 26 °C) on the structure and extent of a multispecies community of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi associated with Plantago lanceolata. To isolate fungi from roots, we used a mesh‐divided pot system with separate hyphal compartments near and away from the plant. A ¹³C pulse label was then used to trace the flow of recently fixed photosynthate from plants into belowground pools and respiration. Temperature significantly altered the structure and allocation of the AM hyphal network, with a switch from more vesicles (storage) in cooled soils to more extensive extraradical hyphal networks (growth) in warmed soils. As soil temperature increased, we also observed an increase in the speed at which plant photosynthate was transferred to and respired by roots and AM fungi coupled with an increase in the amount of carbon respired per unit hyphal length. These differences were largely independent of plant size and rates of photosynthesis. In a warmer world, we would therefore expect more carbon losses to the atmosphere from AM fungal respiration, which are unlikely to be balanced by increased growth of AM fungal hyphae.     

农田生态系统土壤有机碳库及其影响因子

土壤有机碳(SOC)的数量和质量在很大程度上与维持和提高土壤肥力密切相关。农田生态系统土壤碳库研究一直是农业、生态和环境领域的一个主要方向。土地利用、耕作、作物类型、种植密度、灌溉、施肥以及其他人为活动等,对农田生态系统土壤有机碳库的变化均能产生影响。本文综合评述了农田生态系统土壤有机碳库及其影响因子,土壤碳截获潜力,维持和提高土壤有机碳库的措施,以及农田土壤碳截获在温室气体减排及气候变化中的潜在作用等,最后提出了农田生态系统土壤有机碳库研究的主要方向。     

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO₂ fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO₂ fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.     

Differences in temperature, organic carbon and oxygen consumption among lowland streams

1. Temperature, organic carbon and oxygen consumption were measured over a year at 13 sites in four lowlands streams within the same region in North Zealand, Denmark with the objectives of determining: (i) spatial and seasonal differences between open streams, forest streams and streams with or without lakes, (ii) factors influencing the temperature dependence of oxygen consumption rate, (iii) consequences of higher temperature and organic content in lake outlets on oxygen consumption rate, and (iv) possible consequences of forecasted global warming on degradation of organic matter. 2. High concentrations of easily degradable dissolved (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) were found in open streams downstream of plankton‐rich lakes, while high concentrations of recalcitrant DOC were found in a forest brook draining a forest swamp. Concentrations of predominantly recalcitrant POC and DOC were low in a groundwater‐fed forest spring. Overall, DOC concentration was two to 18 times higher than POC concentrations. 3. Oxygen consumption rate at 20 °C was higher during summer than winter, higher in open than shaded streams and higher in lake outlets than inlets. Rate was closely related to concentrations of chlorophyll and POC but not to DOC. The ratio of oxygen consumption rate to total organic concentrations (DOC + POC), serving as a measure of organic degradability, was highest downstream of lakes, intermediate in open streams and lowest in forest streams. 4. Temperature coefficients describing the exponential increase of oxygen consumption rate between 4 and 20 °C averaged 0.121 °C^?1 (Q₁₀ of 3.35) in 70 measurements and showed no significant variations between seasons and stream sites or correlations with ambient temperature and organic content. 5. Oxygen consumption rate was enhanced downstream of lakes during summer because of higher temperature and, more significantly, greater concentrations of degradable organic carbon. Oxygen consumption rates were up to seven times higher in the stream with three impoundments than in a neighbouring unshaded stream and 21 times higher than in the groundwater‐fed forest spring. 6. A regional climate model has calculated a dramatic 4–5 °C rise in air temperature over Denmark by 2070–2100. If this is realised, unshaded streams are estimated to become 2–3 °C warmer in summer and winter and 5–7 °C warmer in spring and, thereby, increase oxygen consumption rates at ambient temperature by 30–40% and 80–130%, respectively. Faster consumption of organic matter and dissolved oxygen downstream of point sources should increase the likelihood of oxygen stress of the stream biota and lead to the export of less organic matter but more mineralised nutrients to the coastal waters.     

Direct measurement of soil organic carbon content change in the croplands of China

Agricultural soils in China have been estimated to have a large potential for carbon sequestration, and modelling and literature survey studies have yielded contrasting results of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock change, ranging from ?2.0 to +0.6% yr^?1. To assess the validity of earlier estimates, we collected 1394 cropland soil profiles from all over the country and measured SOC contents in 2007–2008, and compared them with those of a previous national soil survey conducted in 1979–1982. The results showed that average SOC content in the 0–20 cm soil increased from 11.95 g kg^?1 in 1979–1982 to 12.67 g kg^?1 in 2007–2008, averaging 0.22% yr^?1. The standard deviation of SOC contents decreased. Four major soil types had statistically significant changes in their mean SOC contents for 0–20 cm. These were: +7.5% for Anthrosols (paddy soils), +18.3% for Eutric Cambisols, +30.5% for Fluvisols, and ?22.3% for Chernozems. The change of SOC contents showed a negative relationship with the average SOC contents of the two sampling campaigns only when soils in the region south of Yangtse River were excluded. SOC contents of the two major soil types in the region south of Yangtse River, i.e., Haplic Alisols/Haplic Acrisols and Anthrosols (paddy soils), changed little or significantly increased, though with a high SOC content. We suggest that the increase of SOC content is mainly attributed to the large increase in crop yields since the 1980s, and the short history as cropland establishment is mainly responsible for the decrease in SOC content for some soil types and regions showing a SOC decline.     

Linking dynamics of dissolved organic carbon in a forested lake with environmental factors

Dynamics of dissolved organic carbon concentration (DOC) and capacity toabsorb light (color) are determined by in-lake and external properties andprocesses. In this study, the influence of external factors such as rainfallandsolar radiation on DOC and color dynamics was assessed for a small forestedlake. DOC and absorption coefficients at 440 nm (a₄₄₀)ranged 4-fold from 0.46 to 1.62 mM and from 3.4 to 14.8m^–1, respectively. DOC and a₄₄₀ variedsynchronously, but an important percentage of the variability (26%) ina₄₄₀ was not explained by DOC. The resulting twofold variation inthemolar absorption coefficient of DOC suggested significant seasonal changes inchromophoric content. Both DOC and a₄₄₀ were positive andsignificantly related to cumulative rainfall. Solar radiation, however, onlyappeared to influence a₄₄₀ dynamics. This influence was mediated byphotobleaching. Photobleaching coefficients (k_b) were higher in falland spring relative to the summer. This seasonal variability in k_bvalues was related to monthly rainfall. The influence of photobleaching ona₄₄₀ dynamics was evaluated by comparing the half life ofa₄₄₀ in the water column with water residence time (WRT). For thestudy lake, photobleaching contributed notably to a₄₄₀ dynamicsduring the dry periods when WRT was longer than the a₄₄₀ half life .DOC dynamics, however, were not related to solar radiation becausephotomineralization was considerably slower than photobleaching.     

Elevated [CO2], temperature increase and N supply effects on the accumulation of below-ground carbon in a temperate grassland ecosystem

The effects of elevated [CO₂] (700 μl l⁻¹ [CO₂]) and temperature increase (+3 °C) on carbon accumulation in a grassland soil were studied at two N-fertiliser supplies (160 and 530 kgN ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) in a long-term experiment (2.5 years) on well established ryegrass swards (Lolium perenne L.,) supplied with the same amounts of irrigation water. For all experimental treatments, the C:N ratio of the top soil organic matter fractions increased with their particle size. Elevated CO₂ concentration increased the C:N ratios of the below-ground phytomass and of the macro-organic matter. A supplemental fertiliser N or a 3 °C increase in elevated [CO₂] reduced it. At the last sampling date, elevated [CO₂] did not affect the C:N ratio of the soil organic matter fractions, but increased significantly the accumulation of roots and of macro-organic matter above 200 μm (MOM). An increased N-fertiliser supply stimulated the accumulation of the non harvested plant phytomass and of the OM between 2 and 50 μm, without positive effect on the macro-organic matter >200 μm. Elevated [CO₂2] increased C accumulation in the OM fractions above 50 μm by +2.1 tC ha⁻¹, on average, whereas increasing the fertiliser N supply led to an average supplemental accumulation of +0.8 tC ha⁻¹. There was no significant effect of a 3 °C temperature increase under elevated [CO₂] on C accumulation in the OM fractions above 50 μm. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The effects of phenological mismatches on demography

Climate change is altering the phenology of species across the world, but what are the consequences of these phenological changes for the demography and population dynamics of species? Time-sensitive relationships, such as migration, breeding and predation, may be disrupted or altered, which may in turn alter the rates of reproduction and survival, leading some populations to decline and others to increase in abundance. However, finding evidence for disrupted relationships, or lack thereof, and their demographic effects, is difficult because the necessary detailed observational data are rare. Moreover, we do not know how sensitive species will generally be to phenological mismatches when they occur. Existing long-term studies provide preliminary data for analysing the phenology and demography of species in several locations. In many instances, though, observational protocols may need to be optimized to characterize timing-based multi-trophic interactions. As a basis for future research, we outline some of the key questions and approaches to improving our understanding of the relationships among phenology, demography and climate in a multi-trophic context. There are many challenges associated with this line of research, not the least of which is the need for detailed, long-term data on many organisms in a single system. However, we identify key questions that can be addressed with data that already exist and propose approaches that could guide future research.