Reinforcement of reproductive isolation between adjacent populations in the Park Grass Experiment

It has been debated, ever since Charles Darwin and Alfred Russell Wallace disagreed about the matter, whether natural selection plays a role in reinforcing reproductive isolation during the earliest stages of speciation. Recent theory suggests that it can do so, but until now the empirical evidence has conspicuously lacked a case in which reinforcement has actually been observed to split a population. We show that this has occurred at least once in populations of the grass Anthoxanthum odoratum growing in the Park Grass Experiment where flowering time has shifted at the boundaries between plots. As a consequence, gene flow via pollen has been severely limited and adjacent populations that had a common origin at the start of the experiment in 1856 have now diverged at neutral marker loci.     

Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on growth and phenology of stream insects

Climatic variation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences terrestrial and marine ecosystems, but its effects on river and stream ecosystems are less well known. The influence of the NAO on the growth of stream insects was examined using long-term empirical data on the sizes of mayfly and stonefly nymphs and on water temperature data. Models of egg development and nymphal growth in relation to temperature were used to predict the effect of the NAO on phenology. The study was based in two upland streams in mid-Wales UK that varied in the extent of plantation forestry in their catchments. Winter stream temperatures at both sites were positively related to the winter NAO index, being warmer in positive phases and colder in negative phases. The observed mean size and the simulated developmental period of mayfly nymphs were significantly related to the winter NAO index, with nymphs growing faster in positive phases of the NAO, but the growth of stonefly nymphs was not related to the NAO. This may have been due to the semivoltine stonefly lifecycle, but stonefly nymph growth is also generally less dependent on temperature. There were significant differences in growth rates of both species between streams, with nymphs growing more slowly in the forested stream that was consistently cooler than the open stream. Predicted emergence dates for adult mayflies varied by nearly two months between years, depending on the phase of the NAO. Variation in growth and phenology of stream insects associated with the NAO may influence temporal fluctuations in the composition and dynamics of stream communities.     

Determinants of species richness in the Park Grass Experiment

The Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted in southeast England was started in 1856, making it the longest-running experiment in plant ecology anywhere in the world. Experimental inputs include a range of fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and organic manures) applied annually, with lime applied occasionally, and these have led to an increase in biomass and, where nitrogen was applied in the form of ammonium sulfate, to substantial decreases in soil pH. The number of species per plot varies from three to 44 per 200 m(2), affording a unique opportunity to study the determinants of plant species richness and to estimate the effect sizes attributable to different factors. The response of species richness to biomass depends on the amount and type of nitrogen applied; richness declined monotonically with increasing biomass on plots receiving no nitrogen or receiving nitrogen in the form of sodium nitrate, but there was no relationship between species richness and biomass on plots acidified by ammonium sulfate application. The response to lime also depended on the type of nitrogen applied; there was no relationship between lime treatment and species richness, except in plots receiving nitrogen in the form of ammonium sulfate, where species richness increased sharply with increasing soil pH. The addition of phosphorus reduced species richness, and application of potassium along with phosphorus reduced species richness further, but the biggest negative effects were when nitrogen and phosphorus were applied together. The analysis demonstrates how multiple factors contribute to the observed diversity patterns and how environmental regulation of species pools can operate at the same spatial and temporal scale as biomass effects.     

The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation favour harmful algal blooms in SW Europe

The ecological factors driving the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been traditionally analysed from a hydrological point of view, whereas the interplay between atmospheric oscillations and HAB has been scarcely explored. Here we address the possible link between atmospheric oscillations in SW Europe, using as proxies the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices and the interannual variability in HAB. The yearly series (1973–2005) of mortality of water birds and fish in Doñana National Park (SW Spain) due to toxins associated with the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa, and the monthly incidence (January 1999 to December 2007) of the paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxin produced by the dinoflagellate Gymnodinium catenatum in the Rías Baixas (NW Spain), were selected as models of HAB in SW Europe. The incidences of both toxic algal events were fitted to a binary logistic regression as a function of the atmospheric oscillation indices (with different delays in accordance with each toxic event) and a favourability function was then computed. The favourability for the wildlife mortality in Doñana National Park was as a function of the AO averaged for the summer period (June–August) whereas the favourability for the incidence of PSP in the Rías Baixas was a function of the NAO recorded 1 month before the event. Since HAB have a relevant impact on ecosystems and human health, there is great interest in deciphering the ecological conditions favouring these events. Here we show that the atmospheric oscillations could be drivers of ecological processes linked to the occurrence of HAB in SW Europe. Moreover, the favourability functions relating NAO and AO indices with algal toxic events in SW Europe could be used as a powerful tool to predict toxic events.     

Zooplankton and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a basin-scale analysis

This study examines multiple, long-term zooplankton time seriesacross the Atlantic region and its inland seas. Across a broadrange of geographic regions and ecological environments, theimpact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on interannualchanges in the zooplankton populations was evident. Across themid-Atlantic, a correlation between the NAO and zooplanktonabundance was present and remained positive from the northwesternAtlantic through the enclosed seas of the far eastern Atlantic.Following high NAO years, these regions experienced higher totalzooplankton abundance or biomass. Following low NAO years, thistrend was reversed. A time lag in the zooplankton response tothe NAO was also evident, influenced more by the scale of thewater basin than by latitudinal or longitudinal location. Forsome regions, the correlation between zooplankton and the NAOwas higher when the NAO was substituted with its sub-components:the Azores High (AH) and the Icelandic Low (IL) atmosphericpressure systems. This suggests that decomposition of the NAOinto its components might enhance the sensitivity of the analysisof biological time series with regard to climate change.     

North Atlantic Oscillation and timing of spring migration in birds

Migrant birds have been trapped on the island of Helgoland (southeastern North Sea) since 1909, with methods and sampling effort remaining unchanged throughout the last four decades. In 12 short/medium-distance migrants and 12 long-distance migrants (23 passerines plus the European woodcock) sample sizes were sufficient to calculate mean spring passage (msp) times and to relate these to climate change. All but one species, passing Helgoland en route to their breeding areas (mainly in Scandinavia), show a trend towards earlier msp-time, which is significant in 7 short/medium-distance migrants and 10 long-distance migrants. The msp-times advanced by 0.05-0.28 days per year, short/medium-distance migrants not differing from long-distance migrants. In 23 out of the 24 species, earlier msp-times coincide with local warmer msp-temperatures (significantly in 11 and 7 species of the two groups, respectively). Even more striking is the relation to a large-scale phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), during the last four decades. Again, in 23 out of the 24 species, an earlier msp-time coincides with higher NAO indices (significantly in 9 and 12 species, respectively). The NAO index can also explain differences and similarities in spring migration strategies, as well as migration routes within Europe.     

North Atlantic Oscillation influences on radial growth of Pinus pinea on the Italian mid-Tyrrhenian coast

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most important source of winter atmospheric variability in the northern hemisphere. NAO inversely reflects the precipitation regime, which plays a fundamental role in Mediterranean regions, e.g., by recharging the water table. As no attempt has been made thus far to analyze the relationship between NAO variability and tree radial growth in coastal Mediterranean conifers, this paper identifies the monthly, winter, annual, and decadal influence of NAO on tree-ring chronologies of six planted Pinus pinea L. populations distributed along the Tyrrhenian coasts of central Italy. Through multidimensional analyses, we identified tree-ring chronology associations in two main groups. The influence of NAO on the regional chronologies was identified with correlation functions for the comparison period between 1949 and 2003 at both annual and decadal timescales. Results indicate that winter NAO influence on radial tree growth at annual and decadal timescales may depend on geographical location, site characteristics, and the age structure of tree-ring chronologies. These results contribute to a better understanding of the P. pinea coastal forest ecology and provide evidence of large-scale climatic forcings that influence forest Mediterranean ecosystems.     

North Atlantic Oscillation and spring bloom phytoplankton composition in the English Channel

The spring phytoplankton composition has been investigated ata 50 m deep station off Plymouth in the English Channel for6 years (1993–1999). The percentage of diatoms duringthe spring bloom was significantly correlated with the NorthAtlantic Oscillation index. A similar relationship between phytoplanktonand North Atlantic Oscillation has also been found in a Swedishlake, suggesting a possible link between atmospheric forcingand phytoplankton composition.     

A link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and measles dynamics during the vaccination period in England and Wales

Ecologists have become aware of the role played by interannual climatic variability on the temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. In this report, I present evidence from data on measles cases in England and Wales showing that during the post-vaccination period, the interannual variability of winter weather (represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) influences the annual dynamics of the disease. Using annual measles data from seven cities and simple logistic models, this study reveals how, after vaccination, NAO increases its effects on measles fluctuations. In addition, this study shows that vaccination may be represented as a simple vertical and lateral perturbation effect (Royama's classification), by reducing the maximum per capita growth rate and the equilibrium number of infected individuals . The results suggest that vaccination will not lead to outbreaks of measles from regular cyclic to irregular chaotic dynamics. In contrast, because of the reduction in per capita growth rates, the disease dynamics appear to be more stable than during the pre-vaccination period. The analysis of annual data on infectious diseases may be useful for detecting long-term effects of climate and complements the classical analyses and modeling based on monthly or seasonal time-step data.     

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on grass pollen counts in Europe

Relationships between temporal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and grass pollen counts at 13 sites in Europe, ranging from Córdoba in the south-west and Turku in the north-east, were studied in order to determine spatial differences in the amount of influence exerted by the NAO on the timing and magnitude of grass pollen seasons. There were a number of significant (P < 0.05) relationships between the NAO and start dates of the grass pollen season at the 13 pollen-monitoring sites. The strongest associations were generally recorded near to the Atlantic coast. Several significant correlations also existed between winter averages of the NAO and grass pollen season severity. Traditional methods for predicting the start or magnitude of grass pollen seasons have centred on the use of local meteorological observations, but this study has shown the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability like the NAO.     

On the association between daily mortality and air mass types in Athens,Greece during winter and summer

In this study, we examined the short-term effects of air mass types on mortality in Athens, Greece. An objective air mass types classification was used, based on meteorological parameters measured at the surface. Mortality data were treated with generalized additive models (GAM) and extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns, adjusting also for temperature, long-term trends, day of the week, and ambient particle concentrations. The introduced air mass classification explains the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southerly flow conditions for both the cold (increase in relative risk for mortality 9%; with a 95% confidence interval: 3-14%), and the warm period (7%; with a 95% confidence interval: 2-13%) of the year. The northeasterly flow is associated with the lowest mortality. Effects on mortality, independent of temperature, are observed mainly for lag 0 during the cold period, but persist longer during the warm period. Not adjusting for temperature and/or ambient particle levels slightly alters the results, which then reflect the known temperature and particle effects, already reported in the literature. In conclusion, we find that air mass types have independent effects on mortality for both the cold and warm season and may be used to predict weather-related adverse health effects.     

Interactions between winter and summer annuals in the Chihuahuan Desert

Using 18 years of census data from permanent quadrats, we examined the interactions between spatially coexisting but temporally segregated winter and summer ephemeral plant communities in the Chihuahuan Desert. The ability of winter and summer annuals to achieve nearly complete temporal segregation by partitioning the bimodal annual rainfall permits the coexistence of a diverse flora of annual (and perennial) plants in this unproductive arid environment. Despite the differences in their biogeographical affinities and temporal segregation, long-term data indicated that at the scales of both the entire 20-ha study site and small 0.25-m² sample quadrats, abundances of plants were never high in two successive growing seasons, suggesting a negative interaction between winter and summer annuals. We evaluate alternative hypotheses for this phenomenon. Received: 22 February 1996 / Accepted: 16 September 1996     

North Atlantic Oscillation signatures in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems—a meta-analysis

Climate variations over the Northern Hemisphere are to a substantial proportion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Recently, many studies revealed the impacts of the NAO on the dynamics of organisms in different ecosystems but the results in the single studies were inconsistent. Here, we used meta‐analysis techniques for a quantitative synthesis of results. We tested the influence of the NAO on the timing of life history events, on biomass of organisms, and on biomass of different trophic levels. We found a clear NAO signature in freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems. The response of life history events to the NAO was similar in all environments but less pronounced at higher latitudes. The magnitude of the biomass response was significantly related to the NAO, either positively in aquatic or negatively in terrestrial ecosystems. The response depended on longitude, the effect being less pronounced in Eastern Europe. The results stressed that a meta‐analysis is a valuable tool in the field of climate‐driven ecosystem responses and can identify more general ecological responses than single studies. We recommend the inclusion of nonsignificant results in order to archive an objective view of the strength of NAO and climate impacts in general.     

Prediction of yield in the Rothamsted Park Grass Experiment by Ellenberg indicator values

Abstract. The Rothamsted Park Grass Experiment was established in 1856, with experimental plots subjected to annual applications of fertilizer and twice-yearly cutting of hay. There were two major responses to fertilizer, one reflecting high ammonium-nitrogen and increased acidity and the other reflecting high herbage yield without increased acidity. We calculated mean Ellenberg indicator values for N (nitrogen) and R (soil reaction) for the hay harvested between 1948 and 1975, using both unweighted and abundance-weighted means. Plot Ellenberg values were compared with herbage yield and with fertilizer application rates and published soil data. Annual yield of hay varied from 1.5 to 7.4 t/ha and was well predicted by the unweighted mean Ellenberg N-values (r = 0.91). Relatively large negative residuals from the relationship were found in plots whose soil combined low K and low pH. Soil pH was poorly predicted by the unweighted mean R-value, but showed a moderately good relation with weighted mean R (r = 0.73). The fact that Ellenberg N-values correlated better with yield than with applied nitrogen suggests that they might rather be called productivity values.     

Size and age of maturity of Atlantic salmon correlate with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI)

Sea‐age at maturity of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar decreased with increasing values of the seasonal NAOI from February to April. Body mass increment from smolts to adults of one‐sea‐winter Atlantic salmon increased with increasing NAOI in May at the time when the juveniles moved to sea.     

Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America

To model the effects of global climate phenomena on avian population dynamics, we must identify and quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between climate, weather and bird populations. Previous studies show that in Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences winter and spring weather that in turn affects resident and migratory landbird species. Similarly, in North America, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean reportedly drives weather patterns that affect prey availability and population dynamics of landbird species which winter in the Caribbean. Here we show that ENSO‐ and NAO‐induced seasonal weather conditions differentially affect neotropical‐ and temperate‐wintering landbird species that breed in Pacific North‐west forests of North America. For neotropical species wintering in western Mexico, El Niño conditions correlate with cooler, wetter conditions prior to spring migration, and with high reproductive success the following summer. For temperate wintering species, springtime NAO indices correlate strongly with levels of forest defoliation by the larvae of two moth species and also with annual reproductive success, especially among species known to prey upon those larvae. Generalized linear models incorporating NAO indices and ENSO precipitation indices explain 50–90% of the annual variation in productivity reported for 10 landbird species. These results represent an important step towards spatially explicit modelling of avian population dynamics at regional scales.     

Bryophyte biomass and species richness on the Park Grass Experiment,Rothamsted, UK

The relationships between bryophyte biomass and species richness and soil pH, nutrient applications and vascular plant biomass and species richness were analyzed for the Park Grass Experiment (Rothamsted, UK). The study examined the abundance of bryophytes in relation to long-term fertilizer and lime application and to fertilizer treatments recently being ceased on some plots. The probability of bryophytes being present on a plot increased with increasing soil pH, and on plots at soil pH 3.3–4.5, the lowest values in this experiment, there were virtually no mosses present. Total bryophyte biomass decreased with increasing vascular plant biomass and vascular plant richness. Both bryophyte biomass and species richness showed a curvilinear response to soil pH. Bryophyte biomass was markedly increased on plots where nitrogen (N) fertilization had recently been ceased. The abundance of the common bryophyte species showed individualistic responses to treatments. N had a negative effect on the abundance of Brachythecium rutabulum. Increasing soil pH, and the application of phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) fertilizer together, had a positive effect on Eurhynchium praelongum. This species was also negatively affected by N, but tolerated larger amounts of it (100–150 kg ha^–1 N) than B. rutabulum. An ephemeral moss, Bryum subapiculatum, had a unimodal response to soil pH but showed no response to N, P, K or other explanatory variables.