Latitudinal patterns in the phenological responses of leaf colouring and leaf fall to climate change in Japan

Aim  To estimate the potential effect of global climate change on the phenological responses of plants it is necessary to estimate spatial variations at larger scales. However, previous studies have not estimated latitudinal patterns in the phenological response directly. We hypothesized that the phenological response of plants varies with latitude, and estimated the phenological response to long-term climate change using autumn phenological events that have been delayed by recent climate change.
Location  Japan.
Methods  We used a 53-year data set to document the latitudinal patterns in the climate responses of the timing of autumn leaf colouring and fall for two tree species over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44° N). We calculated single regression slopes for leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan and tested their latitudinal patterns using regression models. The effects of latitude, time and their interaction on the responses of the phenological timings were also estimated using generalized linear mixed models.
Results  Our results showed that single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature in autumn were positive at most stations. Higher temperatures can delay the timing of leaf phenology. Negative relationships were found between the phenological response of leaves to temperature and latitude. Single regression slopes of the phenological responses at lower latitudes were larger than those at higher latitudes.
Main conclusions  We found negative relationships between leaf phenological responsiveness and latitude. These findings will be important for predicting phenological timing with global climate change.     

Quo vadis amphibia? Global warming and breeding phenology in frogs,toads and salamanders

As the earth is getting warmer, many animals and plants have shifted their timing of breeding towards earlier dates. However, there is substantial variation between populations in phenological shifts that typically goes unexplained. Identification of the different location and species characteristics that drive such variable responses to global warming is crucial if we are to make predictions for how projected climate change scenarios will play out on local and global scales. Here we conducted a phylogenetically controlled meta‐analysis of breeding phenology across frogs, toads and salamanders to examine the extent of variation in amphibian breeding phenology in response to global climate change. We show that there is strong geographic variation in response to global climate change, with species at higher latitudes exhibiting a more pronounced shift to earlier breeding than those at lower latitudes. Our analyses suggest that this latitude effect is a result of both the increased temperature (but not precipitation) at higher latitudes as well as a greater responsiveness by northern populations of amphibians to this change in temperature. We suggest that these effects should reinforce any direct effect of increasing warming at higher latitudes on breeding phenology. In contrast, we found very little contribution from other location factors or species traits. There was no evidence for a phylogenetic signal on advancing breeding phenology or responsiveness to temperature, suggesting that the amphibians that have been studied to date respond similarly to global warming.     

Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths

Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time‐series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life‐history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time‐series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces.     

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.     

Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects

Shifts in species' distribution and abundance in response to climate change have been well documented, but the underpinning processes are still poorly understood. We present the results of a systematic literature review and meta‐analysis investigating the frequency and importance of different mechanisms by which climate has impacted natural populations. Most studies were from temperate latitudes of North America and Europe; almost half investigated bird populations. We found significantly greater support for indirect, biotic mechanisms than direct, abiotic mechanisms as mediators of the impact of climate on populations. In addition, biotic effects tended to have greater support than abiotic factors in studies of species from higher trophic levels. For primary consumers, the impact of climate was equally mediated by biotic and abiotic mechanisms, whereas for higher level consumers the mechanisms were most frequently biotic, such as predation or food availability. Biotic mechanisms were more frequently supported in studies that reported a directional trend in climate than in studies with no such climatic change, although sample sizes for this comparison were small. We call for more mechanistic studies of climate change impacts on populations, particularly in tropical systems.     

Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific

The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops.     

Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon

Habitat conditions mediate the effects of climate, so neighboring populations with differing habitat conditions may differ in their responses to climate change. We have previously observed that juvenile survival in Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon is strongly correlated with summer temperature in some populations and with fall streamflow in others. Here, we explore potential differential responses of the viability of four of these populations to changes in streamflow and temperature that might result from climate change. First, we linked predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation from several General Circulation Models to a local hydrological model to project streamflow and air temperature under two climate‐change scenarios. Then, we developed a stochastic, density‐dependent life‐cycle model with independent environmental effects in juvenile and ocean stages, and parameterized the model for each population. We found that mean abundance decreased 20–50% and the probability of quasi‐extinction increased dramatically (from 0.1–0.4 to 0.3–0.9) for all populations in both scenarios. Differences between populations were greater in the more moderate climate scenario than in the more extreme, hot/dry scenario. Model results were relatively robust to realistic uncertainty in freshwater survival parameters in all scenarios. Our results demonstrate that detailed population models can usefully incorporate climate‐change predictions, and that global warming poses a direct threat to freshwater stages in these fish, increasing their risk of extinction. Because differences in habitat may contribute to the individualistic population responses we observed, we infer that maintaining habitat diversity will help buffer some species from the impacts of climate change.     

Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude: evidence from urban heat islands

Biological effects of climate change are expected to vary geographically, with a strong signature of latitude. For ectothermic animals, there is systematic latitudinal variation in the relationship between climate and thermal performance curves, which describe the relationship between temperature and an organism's fitness. Here, we ask whether these documented latitudinal patterns can be generalized to predict arthropod responses to warming across mid‐ and high temperate latitudes, for taxa whose thermal physiology has not been measured. To address this question, we used a novel natural experiment consisting of a series of urban warming gradients at different latitudes. Specifically, we sampled arthropods from a single common street tree species across temperature gradients in four US cities, located from 35.8 to 42.4° latitude. We captured 6746 arthropods in 34 families from 111 sites that varied in summer average temperature by 1.7–3.4 °C within each city. Arthropod responses to warming within each city were characterized as Poisson regression coefficients describing change in abundance per °C for each family. Family responses in the two midlatitude cities were heterogeneous, including significantly negative and positive effects, while those in high‐latitude cities varied no more than expected by chance within each city. We expected high‐latitude taxa to increase in abundance with warming, and they did so in one of the two high‐latitude cities; in the other, Queens (New York City), most taxa declined with warming, perhaps due to habitat loss that was correlated with warming in this city. With the exception of Queens, patterns of family responses to warming were consistent with predictions based on known latitudinal patterns in arthropod physiology relative to regional climate. Heterogeneous responses in midlatitudes may be ecologically disruptive if interacting taxa respond oppositely to warming.     

Environmental variation,vegetation distribution,carbon dynamics and water/energy exchange at high latitudes

Abstract. The responses of high latitude ecosystems to global change involve complex interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water and energy exchange. These responses may have important consequences for the earth system. In this study, we evaluated how vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange are related to environmental variation spanned by the network of the IGBP high latitude transects. While the most notable feature of the high latitude transects is that they generally span temperature gradients from southern to northern latitudes, there are substantial differences in temperature among the transects. Also, along each transect temperature co‐varies with precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation, which are also variable among the transects. Both climate and disturbance interact to influence latitudinal patterns of vegetation and soil carbon storage among the transects, and vegetation distribution appears to interact with climate to determine exchanges of heat and moisture in high latitudes. Despite limitations imposed by the data we assembled, the analyses in this study have taken an important step toward clarifying the complexity of interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange in high latitude regions. This study reveals the need to conduct coordinated global change studies in high latitudes to further elucidate how interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation distribution influence carbon dynamics and water and energy exchange in high latitudes.     

Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long‐term mark‐recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12–17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4–6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.     

Latitudinal variation in herbivory: influences of climatic drivers,herbivore identity and natural enemies

Although a number of investigations have concluded that lower latitudes are associated with increases in herbivore abundance and plant damage, the generality of this pattern is still under debate. Multiple factors may explain the lack of consistency in latitude–herbivory relationships. For instance, latitudinal variation in herbivore pressure may be shaped entirely or not by climatic variables, or vary among herbivore guilds with differing life‐history traits. Additionally, the strength of top–down effects from natural enemies on herbivores might also vary geographically and influence latitude–herbivory patterns. We carried out a field study where we investigated the effects of latitude and climate on herbivory by a seed‐eating caterpillar and leaf chewers, as well as parasitism associated to the former across 30 populations of the perennial herb Ruellia nudiflora (Acanthaceae). These populations were distributed along a 5° latitudinal gradient from northern Yucatan (Mexico) to southern Belize, representing one‐third of the species' latitudinal distribution and the entirety and one‐third of the precipitation and temperature gradient of this species' distribution (respectively). We found opposing latitudinal gradients of seed herbivory and leaf herbivory, and this difference appeared to be mediated by contrasting effects of climate on each guild. Specifically, univariate regressions showed that seed herbivory increased at higher latitudes and with colder temperatures, while leaf herbivory increased toward the equator and with wetter conditions. Multiple regressions including temperature, precipitation and latitude only found significant effects of temperature for seed herbivory and latitude for leaf herbivory. Accordingly, that latitudinal variation in seed herbivory appears to be driven predominantly by variation in temperature whereas latitudinal variation in leaf herbivory was apparently driven by other unexplored correlates of latitude. Parasitism did not exhibit variation with latitude or climatic factors. Overall, these findings underscore that the factors driving latitudinal clines in herbivory might vary even among herbivore species coexisting on the same host plant.     

Growth and development of an invasive forest insect under current and future projected temperature regimes

Temperature and its impact on fitness are fundamental for understanding range shifts and population dynamics under climate change. Geographic climate heterogeneity, behavioral and physiological plasticity, and thermal adaptation to local climates make predicting the responses of species to climate change complex. Using larvae from seven geographically distinct wild populations in the eastern United States of the non‐native forest pest Lymantria dispar dispar (L.), we conducted a simulated reciprocal transplant experiment in environmental chambers using six custom temperature regimes representing contemporary conditions near the southern and northern extremes of the US invasion front and projections under two climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Larval growth and development rates increased with climate warming compared with current thermal regimes and tended to be greater for individuals originally sourced from southern rather than northern populations. Although increases in growth and development rates with warming varied somewhat by region of the source population, there was not strong evidence of local adaptation, southern populations tended to outperform those from northern populations in all thermal regimes. Our study demonstrates the utility of simulating thermal regimes under climate change in environmental chambers and emphasizes how the impacts from future increases in temperature can vary based on geographic differences in climate‐related performance among populations.     

Climate change and spotted owls: potentially contrasting responses in the Southwestern United States

Developing strategies that reduce the impacts of climate change on biodiversity will require projections of the future status of species under alternative climate change scenarios. Demographic models based on empirical data that link temporal variation in climate with vital rates can improve the accuracy of such predictions and help guide conservation efforts. Here, we characterized how population dynamics and extinction risk might be affected by climate change for three spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) populations in the Southwestern United States over the next century. Specifically, we used stochastic, stage‐based matrix models parameterized with vital rates linked to annual variation in temperature and precipitation to project owl populations forward in time under three IPCC emissions scenarios relative to contemporary climate. Owl populations in Arizona and New Mexico were predicted to decline rapidly over the next century and had a much greater probability of extinction under all three emissions scenarios than under current climate conditions. In contrast, owl population dynamics in Southern California were relatively insensitive to predicted changes in climate, and extinction risk was low for this population under all scenarios. The difference in predicted climate change impacts between these areas was due to negative associations between warm, dry conditions and owl vital rates in Arizona and New Mexico, whereas cold, wet springs reduced reproduction in Southern California. Predicted changes in population growth rates were mediated more by weather‐induced changes in fecundity than survival, and were generally more sensitive to increases in temperature than declines in precipitation. Our results indicate that spotted owls in arid environments may be highly vulnerable to climate change, even in core parts of the owl's range. More broadly, contrasting responses to climate change among populations highlight the need to tailor conservation strategies regionally, and modeling efforts such as ours can help prioritize the allocation of resources in this regard.     

Latitudinal Patterns in Phenotypic Plasticity and Fitness-Related Traits: Assessing the Climatic Variability Hypothesis (CVH) with an Invasive Plant Species

Phenotypic plasticity has been suggested as the main mechanism for species persistence under a global change scenario, and also as one of the main mechanisms that alien species use to tolerate and invade broad geographic areas. However, contrasting with this central role of phenotypic plasticity, standard models aimed to predict the effect of climatic change on species distributions do not allow for the inclusion of differences in plastic responses among populations. In this context, the climatic variability hypothesis (CVH), which states that higher thermal variability at higher latitudes should determine an increase in phenotypic plasticity with latitude, could be considered a timely and promising hypothesis. Accordingly, in this study we evaluated, for the first time in a plant species (Taraxacum officinale), the prediction of the CVH. Specifically, we measured plastic responses at different environmental temperatures (5 and 20°C), in several ecophysiological and fitness-related traits for five populations distributed along a broad latitudinal gradient. Overall, phenotypic plasticity increased with latitude for all six traits analyzed, and mean trait values increased with latitude at both experimental temperatures, the change was noticeably greater at 20° than at 5°C. Our results suggest that the positive relationship found between phenotypic plasticity and geographic latitude could have very deep implications on future species persistence and invasion processes under a scenario of climate change.     

Effects of climate change on different geographical populations of the cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera,Noctuidae)

The effects of climate change on pest phenology and population size are highly variable. Understanding the impacts of localized climate change on pest distribution and phenology is helpful for improving integrated pest management strategies. Here, the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Maigaiti County, south Xinjiang, and Shawan County, north Xinjiang, China, were analyzed using a 29‐year dataset at lower latitudes and a 23‐year dataset at higher latitudes to determine the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The results showed that all generations of H. armigera at both sites showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming. Abrupt changes in phenology and population number occurred after abrupt temperature changes. Climate change had a greater effect on the phenology of H. armigera at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes and led to a greater increase in population size at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes; the temperature increase at higher latitudes will cause a greater increase in the adult moth population size in the future compared to that at lower latitudes; and abrupt changes in the phenology, temperature increase, and population size at lower latitudes occurred earlier than those at higher latitudes. Thus, it is necessary to develop sustainable management strategies for Helicoverpa armigera at an early stage.     

Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines

Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.     

The devil is in the detail: Nonadditive and context‐dependent plant population responses to increasing temperature and precipitation

In climate change ecology, simplistic research approaches may yield unrealistically simplistic answers to often more complicated problems. In particular, the complexity of vegetation responses to global climate change begs a better understanding of the impacts of concomitant changes in several climatic drivers, how these impacts vary across different climatic contexts, and of the demographic processes underlying population changes. Using a replicated, factorial, whole‐community transplant experiment, we investigated regional variation in demographic responses of plant populations to increased temperature and/or precipitation. Across four perennial forb species and 12 sites, we found strong responses to both temperature and precipitation change. Changes in population growth rates were mainly due to changes in survival and clonality. In three of the four study species, the combined increase in temperature and precipitation reflected nonadditive, antagonistic interactions of the single climatic changes for population growth rate and survival, while the interactions were additive and synergistic for clonality. This disparity affects the persistence of genotypes, but also suggests that the mechanisms behind the responses of the vital rates differ. In addition, survival effects varied systematically with climatic context, with wetter and warmer + wetter transplants showing less positive or more negative responses at warmer sites. The detailed demographic approach yields important mechanistic insights into how concomitant changes in temperature and precipitation affect plants, which makes our results generalizable beyond the four study species. Our comprehensive study design illustrates the power of replicated field experiments in disentangling the complex relationships and patterns that govern climate change impacts across real‐world species and landscapes.     

Global climate cycles and cyclones: consequences for rainfall patterns and lemur reproduction in southeastern Madagascar

Most studies that examine the influence of climatic change on flora and fauna have focused on northern latitudes; however, there is increasing recognition that tropical regions are also being affected. Despite this, regions such as Madagascar, which are rich in endemic biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climatic change, are poorly represented in studies examining the effects of climate variability on biota. We investigated how El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) influence precipitation patterns in the rainforest region of southeastern Madagascar (1962–2006) and then constructed models to assess the potential contribution of climatic variables on the reproductive parameters of the Milne Edward's sifaka, a threatened lemur species (Propithecus edwardsi), over a 20‐year period. The Southern Oscillation Index of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific was associated with precipitation patterns including wetter wet seasons during warmer phases and drier dry seasons following cooler phases. The best‐supported models of lemur fecundity (female offspring per female that survive to 1 year of age per year) included cyclone presence during gestation and ENSO phase before conception and during the first 6 months of life. Models also suggested that heavy rains during gestation may limit birth rates and that prolonged drought during female lactation may limit first year offspring survival; although these variables were given little importance for predicting overall fecundity relative to ENSO phases and cyclone presence. Our results linking lemur reproduction with climatic variability suggest that climatic changes may be an additional threat to Madagascar's unique and already endangered flora and fauna. The association between precipitation in southeastern Madagascar and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific suggests that dynamics of wildlife populations even in tropical areas such as Madagascar can be affected by global climate cycles making them potentially vulnerable to global climate change.     

Response of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Morus bombycis</Emphasis> growing season to temperature and its latitudinal pattern in Japan

Changes in leaf phenology lengthen the growing season length (GSL, the days between leaf budburst and leaf fall) under the global warming. GSL and the leaf phenology response to climate change is one of the most important predictors of climate change effect on plants. Empirical evidence of climatic effects on GSL remains scarce, especially at a regional scale and the latitudinal pattern. This study analyzed the datasets of leaf budburst and fall phenology in Morus bombycis (Urticales), which were observed by the agency of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 1953 to 2005 over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44° N). In the present study, single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan were calculated and their spatial patterns using general linear models were tested. The results showed that the GSL extension was caused mainly by a delay in leaf fall phenology. Relationships between latitude and leaf phenological and GSL responses against air temperature were significantly negative. The response of leaf phenology and GSL to air temperature at lower latitudes was larger than that at higher latitudes. The findings indicate that GSL extension should be considered with regards to latitude and climate change.     

Genetic evidence for restricted dispersal along continuous altitudinal gradients in a climate change-sensitive mammal: the American Pika

When faced with rapidly changing environments, wildlife species are left to adapt, disperse or disappear. Consequently, there is value in investigating the connectivity of populations of species inhabiting different environments in order to evaluate dispersal as a potential strategy for persistence in the face of climate change. Here, we begin to investigate the processes that shape genetic variation within American pika populations from the northern periphery of their range, the central Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. At these latitudes, pikas inhabit sharp elevation gradients ranging from sea level to 1500 m, providing an excellent system for studying the effects of local environmental conditions on pika population genetic structure and gene flow. We found low levels of neutral genetic variation compared to previous studies from more southerly latitudes, consistent with the relatively recent post-glacial colonization of the study location. Moreover, significant levels of inbreeding and marked genetic structure were detected within and among sites. Although low levels of recent gene flow were revealed among elevations within a transect, potentially admixed individuals and first generation migrants were identified using discriminant analysis of principal components between populations separated by less than five kilometers at the same elevations. There was no evidence for historical population decline, yet there was signal for recent demographic contractions, possibly resulting from environmental stochasticity. Correlative analyses revealed an association between patterns of genetic variation and annual heat-to-moisture ratio, mean annual precipitation, precipitation as snow and mean maximum summer temperature. Changes in climatic regimes forecasted for the region may thus potentially increase the rate of population extirpation by further reducing dispersal between sites. Consequently, American pika may have to rely on local adaptations or phenotypic plasticity in order to survive predicted climate changes, although additional studies are required to investigate the evolutionary potential of this climate change sensitive species.