Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.     

Geographical variation in postzygotic isolation and its genetic basis within and between two Mimulus species

The aim of this study is to investigate the evolution of intrinsic postzygotic isolation within and between populations of Mimulus guttatus and Mimulus nasutus. We made 17 intraspecific and interspecific crosses, across a wide geographical scale. We examined the seed germination success and pollen fertility of reciprocal F₁ and F₂ hybrids and their pure-species parents, and used biometrical genetic tests to distinguish among alternative models of inheritance. Hybrid seed inviability was sporadic in both interspecific and intraspecific crosses. For several crosses, Dobzhansky–Muller incompatibilities involving nuclear genes were implicated, while two interspecific crosses revealed evidence of cytonuclear interactions. Reduced hybrid pollen fertility was found to be greatly influenced by Dobzhansky–Muller incompatibilities in five out of six intraspecific crosses and nine out of 11 interspecific crosses. Cytonuclear incompatibilities reduced hybrid fitness in only one intraspecific and one interspecific cross. This study suggests that intrinsic postzygotic isolation is common in hybrids between these Mimulus species, yet the particular hybrid incompatibilities responsible for effecting this isolation differ among the populations tested. Hence, we conclude that they evolve and spread only at the local scale.     

Local adaptation to temperature conserves top-down control in a grassland food web

A fundamental limitation in many climate change experiments is that tests represent relatively short-term 'shock' experiments and so do not incorporate the phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary change that may occur during the gradual process of climate change. However, capturing this aspect of climate change effects in an experimental design is a difficult challenge that few studies have accomplished. I examined the effect of temperature and predator climate history in food webs composed of herbaceous plants, generalist grasshopper herbivores and spider predators across a natural 4.8°C temperature gradient spanning 500 km in northeastern USA. In these grasslands, the effects of rising temperatures on the plant community are indirect and arise via altered predator-herbivore interactions. Experimental warming had no direct effect on grasshoppers, but reduced predation risk effects by causing spiders from all study sites to seek thermal refuge lower in the plant canopy. However, spider thermal tolerance corresponded to spider origin such that spiders from warmer study sites tolerated higher temperatures than spiders from cooler study sites. As a consequence, the magnitude of the indirect effect of spiders on plants did not differ along the temperature gradient, although a reciprocal transplant experiment revealed significantly different effects of spider origin on the magnitude of top-down control. These results suggest that variation in predator response to warming may maintain species interactions and associated food web processes when faced with long term, chronic climate warming.     

Strong correlation of wild barley (Hordeum spontaneum) population structure with temperature and precipitation variation

In this study, we present the genetic analysis of a new collection of wild barley ( Hordeum spontaneum ) using 42 simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers that represent the seven chromosomes. The Barley1K (B1K) infrastructure consists of 1020 accessions collected in a hierarchical sampling mode (HSM) from 51 sites across Israel and represents the wide adaptive niche of the modern barley's ancestor. According to the genetic structure analysis, the sampled sites can be divided into seven groups, and sampled microsites located on opposing slopes or in different soil types did not show significant genetic differentiation. Although the genetic analysis indicates a simple isolation-by-distance model among the populations, examination of the genetic populations' structure with abiotic parameters in an ordination analysis revealed that the combination of elevation, mid-day temperature and rainfall explains a high proportion of the variance in the principal components analysis. Our findings demonstrate that the current populations have therefore been shaped and distinguished by non-selective forces such as migration; however, we suggest that aridity and temperature gradients played major roles as selective forces in the adaptation of wild barley in this part of the Fertile Crescent. This unique collection is a prelude for the investigation of the molecular basis underlying plant adaptation and responsiveness to harsh environments.     

Climatic and cultural changes in the west Congo Basin forests over the past 5000 years

Central Africa includes the world''s second largest rainforest block. The ecology of the region remains poorly understood, as does its vegetation and archaeological history. However, over the past 20 years, multidisciplinary scientific programmes have enhanced knowledge of old human presence and palaeoenvironments in the forestry block of Central Africa. This first regional synthesis documents significant cultural changes over the past five millennia and describes how they are linked to climate. It is now well documented that climatic conditions in the African tropics underwent significant changes throughout this period and here we demonstrate that corresponding shifts in human demography have had a strong influence on the forests. The most influential event was the decline of the strong African monsoon in the Late Holocene, resulting in serious disturbance of the forest block around 3500 BP. During the same period, populations from the north settled in the forest zone; they mastered new technologies such as pottery and fabrication of polished stone tools, and seem to have practised agriculture. The opening up of forests from 2500 BP favoured the arrival of metallurgist populations that impacted the forest. During this long period (2500–1400 BP), a remarkable increase of archaeological sites is an indication of a demographic explosion of metallurgist populations. Paradoxically, we have found evidence of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum) cultivation in the forest around 2200 BP, implying a more arid context. While Early Iron Age sites (prior to 1400 BP) and recent pre-colonial sites (two to eight centuries BP) are abundant, the period between 1600 and 1000 BP is characterized by a sharp decrease in human settlements, with a population crash between 1300 and 1000 BP over a large part of Central Africa. It is only in the eleventh century that new populations of metallurgists settled into the forest block. In this paper, we analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of 328 archaeological sites that have been reliably radiocarbon dated. The results allow us to piece together changes in the relationships between human populations and the environments in which they lived. On this basis, we discuss interactions between humans, climate and vegetation during the past five millennia and the implications of the absence of people from the landscape over three centuries. We go on to discuss modern vegetation patterns and African forest conservation in the light of these events.     

Breeding experience and population density affect the ability of a songbird to respond to future climate variation

Predicting how populations respond to climate change requires an understanding of whether individuals or cohorts within populations vary in their response to climate variation. We used mixed-effects models on a song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population in British Columbia, Canada, to examine differences among females and cohorts in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climatic variables, age and population density were strong predictors of timing of breeding, but we also found considerable variation among individual females and cohorts. Within cohorts, females differed markedly in their breeding date and cohorts also differed in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity. The plasticity of a cohort appeared to be due primarily to an interaction between the environmental conditions (climate and density) experienced at different ages rather than innate inter-cohort differences. Cohorts that expressed higher plasticity in breeding date experienced warmer El Niño springs in their second or third breeding season, suggesting that prior experience affects how well individuals responded to abnormal climatic conditions. Cohorts born into lower density populations also expressed higher plasticity in breeding date. Interactions between age, experience and environmental conditions have been reported previously for long-lived taxa. Our current results indicate that similar effects operate in a short-lived, temperate songbird.     

Low temperature delays timing and enhances the cost of nitrogen fixation in the unicellular cyanobacterium Cyanothece

Marine nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria are largely confined to the tropical and subtropical ocean. It has been argued that their global biogeographical distribution reflects the physiologically feasible temperature range at which they can perform nitrogen fixation. In this study we refine this line of argumentation for the globally important group of unicellular diazotrophic cyanobacteria, and pose the following two hypotheses: (i) nitrogen fixation is limited by nitrogenase activity at low temperature and by oxygen diffusion at high temperature, which is manifested by a shift from strong to weak temperature dependence of nitrogenase activity, and (ii) high respiration rates are required to maintain very low levels of oxygen for nitrogenase, which results in enhanced respiratory cost per molecule of fixed nitrogen at low temperature. We tested these hypotheses in laboratory experiments with the unicellular cyanobacterium Cyanothece sp. {"type":"entrez-nucleotide","attrs":{"text":"BG043511","term_id":"12489990","term_text":"BG043511"}}BG043511. In line with the first hypothesis, the specific growth rate increased strongly with temperature from 18 to 30 °C, but leveled off at higher temperature under nitrogen-fixing conditions. As predicted by the second hypothesis, the respiratory cost of nitrogen fixation and also the cellular C:N ratio rose sharply at temperatures below 21 °C. In addition, we found that low temperature caused a strong delay in the onset of the nocturnal nitrogenase activity, which shortened the remaining nighttime available for nitrogen fixation. Together, these results point at a lower temperature limit for unicellular nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria, which offers an explanation for their (sub)tropical distribution and suggests expansion of their biogeographical range by global warming.     

The response of forest plant regeneration to temperature variation along a latitudinal gradient

Background and Aims

The response of forest herb regeneration from seed to temperature variations across latitudes was experimentally assessed in order to forecast the likely response of understorey community dynamics to climate warming.

Methods

Seeds of two characteristic forest plants (Anemone nemorosa and Milium effusum) were collected in natural populations along a latitudinal gradient from northern France to northern Sweden and exposed to three temperature regimes in growth chambers (first experiment). To test the importance of local adaptation, reciprocal transplants were also made of adult individuals that originated from the same populations in three common gardens located in southern, central and northern sites along the same gradient, and the resulting seeds were germinated (second experiment). Seedling establishment was quantified by measuring the timing and percentage of seedling emergence, and seedling biomass in both experiments.

Key Results

Spring warming increased emergence rates and seedling growth in the early-flowering forb A. nemorosa. Seedlings of the summer-flowering grass M. effusum originating from northern populations responded more strongly in terms of biomass growth to temperature than southern populations. The above-ground biomass of the seedlings of both species decreased with increasing latitude of origin, irrespective of whether seeds were collected from natural populations or from the common gardens. The emergence percentage decreased with increasing home-away distance in seeds from the transplant experiment, suggesting that the maternal plants were locally adapted.

Conclusions

Decreasing seedling emergence and growth were found from the centre to the northern edge of the distribution range for both species. Stronger responses to temperature variation in seedling growth of the grass M. effusum in the north may offer a way to cope with environmental change. The results further suggest that climate warming might differentially affect seedling establishment of understorey plants across their distribution range and thus alter future understorey plant dynamics.     

Interactions between meat intake and genetic variation in relation to colorectal cancer

Meat intake is associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate interactions between meat intake and genetic variation in order to identify biological pathways involved in meat carcinogenesis. We performed a literature search of PubMed and Embase using “interaction”, “meat”, “polymorphisms”, and “colorectal cancer”, and data on meat–gene interactions were extracted. The studies were divided according to whether information on meat intake was collected prospectively or retrospectively. In prospective studies, interactions between meat intake and polymorphisms in PTGS2 (encoding COX-2), ABCB1, IL10, NFKB1, MSH3, XPC (P_int = 0.006, 0.01, 0.04, 0.03, 0.002, 0.01, respectively), but not IL1B, HMOX1, ABCC2, ABCG2, NR1I2 (encoding PXR), NR1H2 (encoding LXR), NAT1, NAT2, MSH6, or MLH1 in relation to CRC were found. Interaction between a polymorphism in XPC and meat was found in one prospective and one case–control study; however, the directions of the risk estimates were opposite. Thus, none of the findings were replicated. The results from this systematic review suggest that genetic variation in the inflammatory response and DNA repair pathway is involved in meat-related colorectal carcinogenesis, whereas no support for the involvement of heme and iron from meat or cooking mutagens was found. Further studies assessing interactions between meat intake and genetic variation in relation to CRC in large well-characterised prospective cohorts with relevant meat exposure are warranted.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12263-014-0448-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Broad-scale adaptive genetic variation in alpine plants is driven by temperature and precipitation

Identifying adaptive genetic variation is a challenging task, in particular in non-model species for which genomic information is still limited or absent. Here, we studied distribution patterns of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) in response to environmental variation, in 13 alpine plant species consistently sampled across the entire European Alps. Multiple linear regressions were performed between AFLP allele frequencies per site as dependent variables and two categories of independent variables, namely Moran's eigenvector map MEM variables (to account for spatial and unaccounted environmental variation, and historical demographic processes) and environmental variables. These associations allowed the identification of 153 loci of ecological relevance. Univariate regressions between allele frequency and each environmental factor further showed that loci of ecological relevance were mainly correlated with MEM variables. We found that precipitation and temperature were the best environmental predictors, whereas topographic factors were rarely involved in environmental associations. Climatic factors, subject to rapid variation as a result of the current global warming, are known to strongly influence the fate of alpine plants. Our study shows, for the first time for a large number of species, that the same environmental variables are drivers of plant adaptation at the scale of a whole biome, here the European Alps.     

Population-specific responses to an invasive species

Predicting the impacts of non-native species remains a challenge. As populations of a species are genetically and phenotypically variable, the impact of non-native species on local taxa could crucially depend on population-specific traits and adaptations of both native and non-native species. Bitterling fishes are brood parasites of unionid mussels and unionid mussels produce larvae that parasitize fishes. We used common garden experiments to measure three key elements in the bitterling–mussel association among two populations of an invasive mussel (Anodonta woodiana) and four populations of European bitterling (Rhodeus amarus). The impact of the invasive mussel varied between geographically distinct R. amarus lineages and between local populations within lineages. The capacity of parasitic larvae of the invasive mussel to exploit R. amarus was higher in a Danubian than in a Baltic R. amarus lineage and in allopatric than in sympatric R. amarus populations. Maladaptive oviposition by R. amarus into A. woodiana varied among populations, with significant population-specific consequences for R. amarus recruitment. We suggest that variation in coevolutionary states may predispose different populations to divergent responses. Given that coevolutionary relationships are ubiquitous, population-specific attributes of invasive and native populations may play a critical role in the outcome of invasion. We argue for a shift from a species-centred to population-centred perspective of the impacts of invasions.     

Responses to elevated temperature and CO2 in the perennial grass Agrostis curtisii in relation to population origin

1. Evolutionary responses to climate change will depend on the presence of heritable variation within species populations for traits that increase fitness under the changing conditions. Patterns of ecotypic differentiation in relation to latitude in some species suggest that such variation exists in relation to temperature responses. Response to elevated CO₂, whether heritable or not, is not expected to be related to latitudinal or climatic differences within temperate regions.
2. To test these ideas, seeds were collected from 10 populations of the outbreeding perennial grass Agrostis curtisii across its range in Europe from south Wales to Portugal. Plants were grown under ambient and elevated temperature and CO₂ conditions, in a factorial design, in solardomes; two half sibs from each population were planted in separate pots in each of the two replicate domes with each combination of treatments. One half sib was harvested at the end of the first summer, the second at the end of the second summer.
3. Survival was uniformly high and flowering uniformly low across treatments and populations.
4. Responses to temperature and CO₂ treatments varied over time for almost all populations. Treatment effects were not significant on plants harvested in year 1, although there was a trend towards higher shoot biomass under the elevated temperature and CO₂ treatment. In year 2 shoot biomass was significantly higher under the elevated temperature treatment across all populations and there was a strong trend towards decreased biomass under elevated CO₂.
5. There were no significant correlations of plant response to either CO₂ or temperature with climate at origin.
6. These results warn of the dangers of extrapolating evolutionary plant responses to CO₂ from short-term experiments.     

Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming

Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.     

Differential responses of marine communities to natural and anthropogenic changes

Responses of ecosystems to environmental changes vary greatly across habitats, organisms and observational scales. The Quaternary fossil record of the Po Basin demonstrates that marine communities of the northern Adriatic re-emerged unchanged following the most recent glaciation, which lasted approximately 100 000 years. The Late Pleistocene and Holocene interglacial ecosystems were both dominated by the same species, species turnover rates approximated predictions of resampling models of a homogeneous system, and comparable bathymetric gradients in species composition, sample-level diversity, dominance and specimen abundance were observed in both time intervals. The interglacial Adriatic ecosystems appear to have been impervious to natural climate change either owing to their persistence during those long-term perturbations or their resilient recovery during interglacial phases of climate oscillations. By contrast, present-day communities of the northern Adriatic differ notably from their Holocene counterparts. The recent ecosystem shift stands in contrast to the long-term endurance of interglacial communities in face of climate-driven environmental changes.     

Differential responses to warming and increased precipitation among three contrasting grasshopper species

We conducted a field manipulation experiment to investigate developmental and demographic responses to warming and increased precipitation in three Inner Mongolian grasshopper species that differ in phenology (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes , a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus , and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax ). Infrared heaters were used for warming the ground surface by 1–2 °C above the ambient condition and periodic irrigations were applied to simulate a 50% increase in annual precipitation. We found that warming advanced the timing for egg hatching and grasshopper eclosion in each of the three species. However, grasshopper diapause and increased precipitation appeared to offset the effect of warming on egg development. Hatching and development were more strongly affected by warming in the mid-season O. asiaticus and the late-season C. fallax relative to the early-season D. barbipes . Warming by ∼1.5 °C advanced the occurrence of the mid-season O. asiaticus by an average of 4.96 days; while warming and increased precipitation interactively affected the occurrence of the late-season C. fallax , which advanced by 5.53 days. Our data and those of others suggest that most grasshopper species in the Inner Mongolian grassland are likely to extend their distribution northward with climate change. However, because of the differential response to warming we demonstrate for these species, the different grasshopper species are predicted to aggregate toward the middle period of the growing season, potentially increasing interspecific competition and grazing pressure on grasslands.     

A local dormancy cline is related to the seed maturation environment,population genetic composition and climate

Background and Aims

Seed dormancy varies within species in response to climate, both in the long term (through ecotypes or clines) and in the short term (through the influence of the seed maturation environment). Disentangling both processes is crucial to understand plant adaptation to environmental changes. In this study, the local patterns of seed dormancy were investigated in a narrow endemic species, Centaurium somedanum, in order to determine the influence of the seed maturation environment, population genetic composition and climate.

Methods

Laboratory germination experiments were performed to measure dormancy in (1) seeds collected from different wild populations along a local altitudinal gradient and (2) seeds of a subsequent generation produced in a common garden. The genetic composition of the original populations was characterized using intersimple sequence repeat (ISSR) PCR and principal co-ordinate analysis (PCoA), and its correlation with the dormancy patterns of both generations was analysed. The effect of the local climate on dormancy was also modelled.

Key Results

An altitudinal dormancy cline was found in the wild populations, which was maintained by the plants grown in the common garden. However, seeds from the common garden responded better to stratification, and their release from dormancy was more intense. The patterns of dormancy variation were correlated with genetic composition, whereas lower temperature and summer precipitation at the population sites predicted higher dormancy in the seeds of both generations.

Conclusions

The dormancy cline in C. somedanum is related to a local climatic gradient and also corresponds to genetic differentiation among populations. This cline is further affected by the weather conditions during seed maturation, which influence the receptiveness to dormancy-breaking factors. These results show that dormancy is influenced by both long-and short-term climatic variation. Such processes at such a reduced spatial scale highlight the potential of plants to adapt to fast environmental changes.     

The seasonal sensitivity of Cyanobacteria and other phytoplankton to changes in flushing rate and water temperature

The phytoplankton lake community model PROTECH (Phytoplankton RespOnses To Environmental CHange) was applied to the eutrophic lake, Esthwaite Water (United Kingdom). It was validated against monitoring data from 2003 and simulated well the seasonal pattern of total chlorophyll, diatom chlorophyll and Cyanobacteria chlorophyll with respective R²‐values calculated between observed and simulated of 0.68, 0.72 and 0.77 (all P<0.01). This simulation was then rerun through various combinations of factorized changes covering a range of half to double the flushing rate and from ?1 to +4 °C changes in water temperature. Their effect on the phytoplankton was measured as annual, spring, summer and autumn means of the total and species chlorophyll concentrations. In addition, Cyanobacteria mean percentage abundance (%Cb) and maximum percentage abundance (Max %Cb) was recorded, as were the number of days that Cyanobacteria chlorophyll concentration exceed two World Health Organization (WHO) derived risk thresholds (10 and 50 mg m^?3). The phytoplankton community was dominated in the year by three of the eight phytoplankton simulated. The vernal bloom of the diatom Asterionella showed little annual or seasonal response to the changing drivers but this was not the case for the two Cyanobacteria that also dominated, Anabaena and Aphanizomenon . These Cyanobacteria showed enhanced abundance, community dominance and increased duration above the highest WHO risk threshold with increasing water temperature and decreasing flushing rate: this effect was greatest in the summer period. However, the response was ultimately controlled by the availability of nutrients, particularly phosphorus and nitrogen, with occasional declines in the latter's concentration helping the dominance of these nitrogen‐fixing phytoplankton.     

Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels

Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.