Collective animal behavior from Bayesian estimation and probability matching

Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is mainly based on empirical fits to observations, with less emphasis in obtaining first-principles approaches that allow their derivation. Here we show that patterns of collective decisions can be derived from the basic ability of animals to make probabilistic estimations in the presence of uncertainty. We build a decision-making model with two stages: Bayesian estimation and probabilistic matching. In the first stage, each animal makes a Bayesian estimation of which behavior is best to perform taking into account personal information about the environment and social information collected by observing the behaviors of other animals. In the probability matching stage, each animal chooses a behavior with a probability equal to the Bayesian-estimated probability that this behavior is the most appropriate one. This model derives very simple rules of interaction in animal collectives that depend only on two types of reliability parameters, one that each animal assigns to the other animals and another given by the quality of the non-social information. We test our model by obtaining theoretically a rich set of observed collective patterns of decisions in three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a shoaling fish species. The quantitative link shown between probabilistic estimation and collective rules of behavior allows a better contact with other fields such as foraging, mate selection, neurobiology and psychology, and gives predictions for experiments directly testing the relationship between estimation and collective behavior.     

Dynamic choices are most accurate in small groups

According to the classic results of Galton and Condorcet, as well as in modern decision-making models, accuracy in groups increases with group size. However, these studies do not consider the naturally occurring situation in which individuals dynamically re-evaluate their decision with a possible change of opinion. The dynamics of re-evaluation in groups are very different to individual re-evaluation because individuals influence the group and the group influences the individual. We find that individual accuracy in a group is higher when individuals re-evaluate because all members have more access to social information, while in single decisions, those deciding first have less. This improvement is smaller in large groups as in this case errors can cascade across the members of the group before re-evaluation can correct them. The net result is a maximal accuracy at a small group size. We also analyzed the case in which individuals are influenced only by a small number of the other individuals. In this case, cascading errors affect the interacting subgroups but are very unlikely to reach the whole group. This results in a local optimum at a small group size but also an optimum at a very large size. We thus suggest that re-evaluation dynamics can make small and very large groups optimal. Also, features that may be seen as limitations, like an influence from only a small number of individuals, may turn to be beneficial when considering local animal interactions, here filtering out cascading of errors in the group when reconsideration dynamics takes place.     

Shared or unshared consensus decision in macaques?

Members of a social group have to make collective decisions in order to synchronise their activities. In a shared consensus decision, all group members can take part in the decision whereas in an unshared consensus decision, one individual, usually a dominant member of the group, takes the decision for the rest of the group. It has been suggested that the type of decision-making of a species could be influenced by its social style. To investigate this further, we studied collective movements in two species with opposed social systems, the Tonkean macaque (Macaca tonkeana) and the rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta). From our results, it appears that the decision to move is the result of the choices and actions of several individuals in both groups. However, this consensus decision involved nearly all group members in Tonkean macaques whereas dominant and old individuals took a prominent role in rhesus macaques. Thus, we suggest that Tonkean macaques display equally shared consensus decisions to move, whereas in the same context rhesus macaque exhibit partially shared consensus decisions. Such a difference in making a collective decision might be linked to the different social systems of the two studied species.     

How can social network analysis improve the study of primate behavior?

When living in a group, individuals have to make trade-offs, and compromise, in order to balance the advantages and disadvantages of group life. Strategies that enable individuals to achieve this typically affect inter-individual interactions resulting in nonrandom associations. Studying the patterns of this assortativity using social network analyses can allow us to explore how individual behavior influences what happens at the group, or population level. Understanding the consequences of these interactions at multiple scales may allow us to better understand the fitness implications for individuals. Social network analyses offer the tools to achieve this. This special issue aims to highlight the benefits of social network analysis for the study of primate behaviour, assessing it's suitability for analyzing individual social characteristics as well as group/population patterns. In this introduction to the special issue, we first introduce social network theory, then demonstrate with examples how social networks can influence individual and collective behaviors, and finally conclude with some outstanding questions for future primatological research.     

Scalable rules for coherent group motion in a gregarious vertebrate

Individuals of gregarious species that initiate collective movement require mechanisms of cohesion in order to maintain advantages of group living. One fundamental question in the study of collective movement is what individual rules are employed when making movement decisions. Previous studies have revealed that group movements often depend on social interactions among individual members and specifically that collective decisions to move often follow a quorum-like response. However, these studies either did not quantify the response function at the individual scale (but rather tested hypotheses based on group-level behaviours), or they used a single group size and did not demonstrate which social stimuli influence the individual decision-making process. One challenge in the study of collective movement has been to discriminate between a common response to an external stimulus and the synchronization of behaviours resulting from social interactions. Here we discriminate between these two mechanisms by triggering the departure of one trained Merino sheep (Ovis aries) from groups containing one, three, five and seven naïve individuals. Each individual was thus exposed to various combinations of already-departed and non-departed individuals, depending on its rank of departure. To investigate which individual mechanisms are involved in maintaining group cohesion under conditions of leadership, we quantified the temporal dynamic of response at the individual scale. We found that individuals'' decisions to move do not follow a quorum response but rather follow a rule based on a double mimetic effect: attraction to already-departed individuals and attraction to non-departed individuals. This rule is shown to be in agreement with an adaptive strategy that is inherently scalable as a function of group size.     

Using multilayer network analysis to explore the temporal dynamics of collective behavior

Social organisms often show collective behaviors such as group foraging or movement.Collective behaviors can emerge from interactions between group members and may depend on the behavior of key individuals.When social interactions change over time,collective behaviors may change because these behaviors emerge from interactions among individuals.Despite the importance of,and growing interest in,the temporal dynamics of social interactions,it is not clear how to quantify changes in interactions over time or measure their stability.Furthermore,the temporal scale at which we should observe changes in social networks to detect biologically meaningful changes is not always apparent.Here we use multilayer network analysis to quantify temporal dynamics of social networks of the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola and determine how these dynamics relate to individual and group behaviors.We found that social interactions changed over time at a constant rate.Variation in both network structure and the identity of a keystone individual was not related to the mean or variance of the collective prey attack speed.Individuals that maintained a large and stable number of connections,despite changes in network structure,were the boldest individuals in the group.Therefore,social interactions and boldness are linked across time,but group collective behavior is not influenced by the stability of the social network.Our work demonstrates that dynamic social networks can be modeled in a multilayer framework.This approach may reveal biologically important temporal changes to social structure in other systems.     

Collective Waves of Sleep in Gulls (Larus spp.)

How should animals sleep in groups? Because sleeping reduces the ability of an individual to detect potential threats, not all individuals should sleep at the same time. The obvious solution of taking turns to sleep is not documented in animal groups. Individuals can also organize their sleeping bouts independently of each other but this simple strategy can be dangerous if too many individuals happen to sleep at the same time. One solution to this problem is to monitor the behaviour of other group members and adjust sleeping bouts accordingly. For instance, as the number of sleeping individuals increases, companions may decide that it must be a safe time to sleep. However, when fewer group members are sleeping, an individual may benefit by curtailing sleep, given that it would be more vulnerable than vigilant group members should an attack occur. Such monitoring can therefore lead to contagious behaviour in the group, which can be detected in a group by collective waves of activities through time. Using spectral analysis, I investigated the proportion of sleeping birds in loafing gulls (Larus spp.) as a function of time over 2 yr and found that in many groups, the proportion of sleeping birds rises and decreases in a systematic and statistically significant fashion. These results add more weight to the now increasingly supported view that vigilance in general is a social phenomenon and suggest that adaptive behaviour at the level of the individual can lead to collective phenomena such as waves of sleep in animal groups.     

Where Next? Group Coordination and Collective Decision Making by Primates

Primate groups need to remain coordinated in their activities and collectively decide when and where to travel if they are to accrue the benefits and minimize the costs of sociality. The achievement of coordinated activity and group decision making therefore has important implications for individual survival and reproduction. The aim of this special issue is to bring together a collection of empirical, theoretical, and commentary articles by primatologists studying this rapidly expanding topic. In this article, we introduce the contributions within the special issue and provide a background to the topic. We begin by focusing on decisions that involve a collective transition between a resting and a moving state, a transition we term making the move. We examine whether specific predeparture behaviors seen during transitions represent intentional processes or more simple response facilitation. Next we classify decisions according to the contribution of individual group members, and describe how, and why, certain individuals can have a disproportionate influence over group-mates?? behavior. We then review how primate groups make decisions on the move. In particular, we focus on how variability in group size and spatial organization helps or hinders information transmission and coordination. We end with a discussion of new tools and methodology that will allow future investigators to address some outstanding questions in primate coordination and decision-making research. We conclude that a better integration of concepts and terminology, along with a focus on how individuals integrate environmental and social information, will be critical to developing a satisfactory understanding of collective patterns of behavior in primate systems.     

Individual-level personality influences social foraging and collective behaviour in wild birds

There is increasing evidence that animal groups can maintain coordinated behaviour and make collective decisions based on simple interaction rules. Effective collective action may be further facilitated by individual variation within groups, particularly through leader–follower polymorphisms. Recent studies have suggested that individual-level personality traits influence the degree to which individuals use social information, are attracted to conspecifics, or act as leaders/followers. However, evidence is equivocal and largely limited to laboratory studies. We use an automated data-collection system to conduct an experiment testing the relationship between personality and collective decision-making in the wild. First, we report that foraging flocks of great tits (Parus major) show strikingly synchronous behaviour. A predictive model of collective decision-making replicates patterns well, suggesting simple interaction rules are sufficient to explain the observed social behaviour. Second, within groups, individuals with more reactive personalities behave more collectively, moving to within-flock areas of higher density. By contrast, proactive individuals tend to move to and feed at spatial periphery of flocks. Finally, comparing alternative simulations of flocking with empirical data, we demonstrate that variation in personality promotes within-patch movement while maintaining group cohesion. Our results illustrate the importance of incorporating individual variability in models of social behaviour.     

Imitation Combined with a Characteristic Stimulus Duration Results in Robust Collective Decision-Making

For group-living animals, reaching consensus to stay cohesive is crucial for their fitness, particularly when collective motion starts and stops. Understanding the decision-making at individual and collective levels upon sudden disturbances is central in the study of collective animal behavior, and concerns the broader question of how information is distributed and evaluated in groups. Despite the relevance of the problem, well-controlled experimental studies that quantify the collective response of groups facing disruptive events are lacking. Here we study the behavior of small-sized groups of uninformed individuals subject to the departure and stop of a trained conspecific. We find that the groups reach an effective consensus: either all uninformed individuals follow the trained one (and collective motion occurs) or none does. Combining experiments and a simple mathematical model we show that the observed phenomena results from the interplay between simple mimetic rules and the characteristic duration of the stimulus, here, the time during which the trained individual is moving away. The proposed mechanism strongly depends on group size, as observed in the experiments, and even if group splitting can occur, the most likely outcome is always a coherent collective group response (consensus). The prevalence of a consensus is expected even if the groups of naives face conflicting information, e.g. if groups contain two subgroups of trained individuals, one trained to stay and one trained to leave. Our results indicate that collective decision-making and consensus in (small) animal groups are likely to be self-organized phenomena that do not involve concertation or even communication among the group members.     

Personality and social context

There has been considerable interest among biologists in the phenomenon of non‐human animal personality in recent years. Consistent variations among individuals in their behavioural responses to ecologically relevant stimuli, often relating to a trade‐off between level of risk and reward, have been recorded in a wide variety of species, representing many animal taxa. Research into behavioural variation among individuals has major implications for our understanding of ecological patterns and processes at scales from the level of the individual to the level of the population. Until recently, however, many studies that have considered the broader ecological implications of animal personality have failed to take into account the crucial moderating effect of social context. It is well documented that social processes, such as conformity and facilitation, exert considerable influence on the behaviour of grouping animals and hence that isolated individuals may often behave in a qualitatively as well as quantitatively different manner to those in groups. Recently, a number of studies have begun to address aspects of this gap in our knowledge and have provided vital insights. In this review we examine the state of our knowledge on the relationship between individual personality and sociality. In doing so we consider the influence of the social context on individual personality responses, the interaction between the collective personalities of group members and the expression of those personalities in the individual, and the influence of the personalities of group members on group structure and function. We propose key areas of focus for future studies in order to develop our understanding of this fundamentally important area.     

Collective Learning and Optimal Consensus Decisions in Social Animal Groups

Learning has been studied extensively in the context of isolated individuals. However, many organisms are social and consequently make decisions both individually and as part of a collective. Reaching consensus necessarily means that a single option is chosen by the group, even when there are dissenting opinions. This decision-making process decouples the otherwise direct relationship between animals'' preferences and their experiences (the outcomes of decisions). Instead, because an individual''s learned preferences influence what others experience, and therefore learn about, collective decisions couple the learning processes between social organisms. This introduces a new, and previously unexplored, dynamical relationship between preference, action, experience and learning. Here we model collective learning within animal groups that make consensus decisions. We reveal how learning as part of a collective results in behavior that is fundamentally different from that learned in isolation, allowing grouping organisms to spontaneously (and indirectly) detect correlations between group members'' observations of environmental cues, adjust strategy as a function of changing group size (even if that group size is not known to the individual), and achieve a decision accuracy that is very close to that which is provably optimal, regardless of environmental contingencies. Because these properties make minimal cognitive demands on individuals, collective learning, and the capabilities it affords, may be widespread among group-living organisms. Our work emphasizes the importance and need for theoretical and experimental work that considers the mechanism and consequences of learning in a social context.     

When to use social information: the advantage of large group size in individual decision making

Correct decision making is crucial for animals to maximize foraging success and minimize predation risk. Group-living animals can make such decisions by using their own personal information or by pooling information with other group members (i.e. social information). Here, we investigate how individuals might best balance their use of personal and social information. We use a simple modelling approach in which individual decisions based upon social information are more likely to be correct when more individuals are involved and their personal information is more accurate. Our model predicts that when the personal information of group members is poor (accurate less than half the time), individuals should avoid pooling information. In contrast, when personal information is reliable (accurate at least half the time), individuals should use personal information less often and social information more often, and this effect should grow stronger in larger groups. One implication of this pattern is that social information allows less well-informed members of large groups to reach a correct decision with the same probability as more well-informed members of small groups. Thus, animals in larger groups may be able to minimize the costs of collecting personal information without impairing their ability to make correct decisions.     

The legacy effects of keystone individuals on collective behaviour scale to how long they remain within a group

The collective behaviour of social groups is often strongly influenced by one or few individuals, termed here ‘keystone individuals’. We examined whether the influence of keystone individuals on collective behaviour lingers after their departure and whether these lingering effects scale with their tenure in the group. In the social spider, Stegodyphus dumicola, colonies'' boldest individuals wield a disproportionately large influence over colony behaviour. We experimentally manipulated keystones'' tenure in laboratory-housed colonies and tracked their legacy effects on collective prey capture following their removal. We found that bolder keystones caused more aggressive collective foraging behaviour and catalysed greater inter-individual variation in boldness within their colonies. The longer keystones remained in a colony, the longer both of these effects lingered after their departure. Our data demonstrate that, long after their disappearance, keystones have large and lasting effects on social dynamics at both the individual and colony levels.     

Group decision making in fission-fusion societies: evidence from two-field experiments in Bechstein's bats

Group decisions are required when group coordination is beneficial, but individuals can choose between alternatives. Despite the increased interest in animal group decision making, there is a lack of experimental field studies that investigate how animals with conflicting information make group decisions. In particular, no field studies have considered the influence of fission-fusion behaviour (temporary splitting into subgroups) on group decisions. We studied group decision making in two wild Bechstein's bat colonies, which are fission-fusion societies of stable individual composition. Since they frequently switch communal roosts, colony members must regularly make group decisions over where to roost. In the two-field experiments, we provided marked individuals with conflicting information about the suitability of potential roosts. We investigated whether conflicting information led to group decisions that followed a 'unanimous' or a 'majority' rule, or increased colony fission. Individual behaviour suggests that bats considered both their own information and the behaviour of others when deciding where to roost. Group decisions about communal roosts reflected the information available to a majority of the bats roosting together, but conflicting information led to an increased fission in one colony. Our results suggest that fission-fusion societies allow individuals to avoid majority decisions that are not in their favour.     

Collective decision‐making and fission–fusion dynamics: a conceptual framework

Sociality exists in an extraordinary range of ecological settings. For individuals to accrue the benefits associated with social interactions, they are required to maintain a degree of spatial and temporal coordination in their activities, and make collective decisions. Such coordination and decision‐making has been the focus of much recent research. However, efforts largely have been directed toward understanding patterns of collective behaviour in relatively stable and cohesive groups. Less well understood is how fission–fusion dynamics mediate the process and outcome of collective decisions making. Here, we aim to apply established concepts and knowledge to highlight the implications of fission–fusion dynamics for collective decisions, presenting a conceptual framework based on the outcome of a small‐group discussion INCORE meeting (funded by the European Community's Sixth Framework Programme). First, we discuss how the degree of uncertainty in the environment shapes social flexibility and therefore the types of decisions individuals make in different social settings. Second, we propose that the quality of social relationships and the energetic needs of each individual influence fission decisions. Third, we explore how these factors affect the probability of individuals to fuse. Fourth, we discuss how group size and fission–fusion dynamics may affect communication processes between individuals at a local or global scale to reach a consensus or to fission. Finally, we offer a number of suggestions for future research, capturing emerging ideas and concepts on the interaction between collective decisions and fission–fusion dynamics.     

Decision-making processes: The case of collective movements

Besides focusing on the adaptive significance of collective movements, it is crucial to study the mechanisms and dynamics of decision-making processes at the individual level underlying the higher-scale collective movements. It is now commonly admitted that collective decisions emerge from interactions between individuals, but how individual decisions are taken, i.e. how far they are modulated by the behaviour of other group members, is an under-investigated question. Classically, collective movements are viewed as the outcome of one individual's initiation (the leader) for departure, by which all or some of the other group members abide. Individuals assuming leadership have often been considered to hold a specific social status. This hierarchical or centralized control model has been challenged by recent theoretical and experimental findings, suggesting that leadership can be more distributed. Moreover, self-organized processes can account for collective movements in many different species, even in those that are characterized by high cognitive complexity. In this review, we point out that decision-making for moving collectively can be reached by a combination of different rules, i.e. individualized (based on inter-individual differences in physiology, energetic state, social status, etc.) and self-organized (based on simple response) ones for any species, context and group size.     

Collective Factors Reinforce Individual Contributions to Human-Wildlife Coexistence

Conserving large carnivores while keeping people safe depends on finding means for peaceful coexistence. Although large carnivore populations are generally declining globally, some populations are increasing, causing greater overlap with humans and increasing potential for conflict. One method of reducing conflict with large carnivores is to secure attractants like garbage and livestock. This method is effective when implemented; however, implementation requires a change in human behavior. Human-wildlife interaction is a public good collective action problem where solutions require contributions from many and individual actions have effects on others. We used the collective interest model to investigate how individual and collective factors work in concert to influence landowner attractant securing behavior in Montana, USA, in black (Ursus americanus) and grizzly bear (U. arctos) range. We used data from a mail-back survey to develop logistic regression models testing the relative effects of collective and individual factors on landowners' attractant securing behaviors. The most important factor was whether individuals had spoken to a wildlife professional, a reflection of social coordination and pressure. Other collective factors (e.g., social norms [i.e., expectations and behaviors of peers] and the existence of discussion networks [i.e., how much social influence an individual has]) were equally important as individual factors (e.g., beliefs, age, gender) for influencing attractant securing behavior among Montana landowners. This research suggests pathways for wildlife managers and outreach coordinators to increase attractant securing behavior by emphasizing collective factors, such as social norms, rather than appealing exclusively to individual factors, such as risk perception of large carnivores. Furthermore, wildlife agencies would be justified in increasing their efforts to connect with landowners in person and to connect with members of the public who play an important role in discussion networks. This research demonstrates that, even on private lands, collective interests may be a missing and important piece of the puzzle for encouraging voluntary attractant securing behavior and improving wildlife-human coexistence. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Vigilance and Collective Detection of Predators in Degus (Octodon degus)

Individuals of social and partially social species typically reduce their vigilance activity when foraging in groups. As a result, per capita risk of predation decreases and individuals allocate more time to foraging and other fitness rewarding activities. Reduction of per capita risk is hypothesized to occur because there are more individuals to detect potential predators. If so, collective (i.e. total) vigilance is expected to increase with foraging group size. Increased surveillance during group foraging may occur if group members scan independently of one another, or sequentially to avoid the overlapping of their vigilance bouts. Intriguingly, such coordinated vigilance assumes that individuals monitor not only the presence, but the vigilance behaviour of group mates. We used seasonal records on time budget and grouping patterns of individually marked degus (Octodon degus), a social rodent, to examine if (a) individual vigilance decreases and/or foraging increases with group size, (b) collective vigilance increases with group size and (c) foraging degus coordinate their vigilance. When foraging, degus decreased their individual vigilance and increased their foraging time when in larger groups. Despite this, degus in larger groups increased their collective vigilance, supporting the hypothesis that socially foraging degus decrease predation risk through an improved ability to detect and escape potential predators. Additionally, patterns of collective vigilance suggested that degus scan independently of each other and so, they do not coordinate their vigilance to prevent its temporal overlapping. This finding does not support that foraging degus monitor the vigilance activity of group mates.     

Prey synchronize their vigilant behaviour with other group members

It is generally assumed that an individual of a prey species can benefit from an increase in the number of its group''s members by reducing its own investment in vigilance. But what behaviour should group members adopt in relation to both the risk of being preyed upon and the individual investment in vigilance? Most models assume that individuals scan independently of one another. It is generally argued that it is more profitable for each group member owing to the cost that coordination of individual scans in non-overlapping bouts of vigilance would require. We studied the relationships between both individual and collective vigilance and group size in Defassa waterbuck, Kobus ellipsiprymnus defassa, in a population living under a predation risk. Our results confirmed that the proportion of time an individual spent in vigilance decreased with group size. However, the time during which at least one individual in the group scanned the environment (collective vigilance) increased. Analyses showed that individuals neither coordinated their scanning in an asynchronous way nor scanned independently of one another. On the contrary, scanning and non-scanning bouts were synchronized between group members, producing waves of collective vigilance. We claim that these waves are triggered by allelomimetic effects i.e. they are a phenomenon produced by an individual copying its neighbour''s behaviour.