Elements of disease in a changing world: modelling feedbacks between infectious disease and ecosystems

An overlooked effect of ecosystem eutrophication is the potential to alter disease dynamics in primary producers, inducing disease‐mediated feedbacks that alter net primary productivity and elemental recycling. Models in disease ecology rarely track organisms past death, yet death from infection can alter important ecosystem processes including elemental recycling rates and nutrient supply to living hosts. In contrast, models in ecosystem ecology rarely track disease dynamics, yet elemental nutrient pools (e.g. nitrogen, phosphorus) can regulate important disease processes including pathogen reproduction and transmission. Thus, both disease and ecosystem ecology stand to grow as fields by exploring questions that arise at their intersection. However, we currently lack a framework explicitly linking these disciplines. We developed a stoichiometric model using elemental currencies to track primary producer biomass (carbon) in vegetation and soil pools, and to track prevalence and the basic reproduction number (R₀) of a directly transmitted pathogen. This model, parameterised for a deciduous forest, demonstrates that anthropogenic nutrient supply can interact with disease to qualitatively alter both ecosystem and disease dynamics. Using this element‐focused approach, we identify knowledge gaps and generate predictions about the impact of anthropogenic nutrient supply rates on infectious disease and feedbacks to ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling.     

Plankton dynamics under different climate conditions in tropical freshwater systems (a reply to the comment by Sarmento,Amado & Descy, )

相似文献   

Woody vegetation dynamics in the tropical and subtropical Andes from 2001 to 2014: Satellite image interpretation and expert validation

The interactions between climate and land‐use change are dictating the distribution of flora and fauna and reshuffling biotic community composition around the world. Tropical mountains are particularly sensitive because they often have a high human population density, a long history of agriculture, range‐restricted species, and high‐beta diversity due to a steep elevation gradient. Here we evaluated the change in distribution of woody vegetation in the tropical Andes of South America for the period 2001–2014. For the analyses we created annual land‐cover/land‐use maps using MODIS satellite data at 250 m pixel resolution, calculated the cover of woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) in 9,274 hexagons of 115.47 km², and then determined if there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) 14 year linear trend (positive—forest gain, negative—forest loss) within each hexagon. Of the 1,308 hexagons with significant trends, 36.6% (n = 479) lost forests and 63.4% (n = 829) gained forests. We estimated an overall net gain of ~500,000 ha in woody vegetation. Forest loss dominated the 1,000–1,499 m elevation zone and forest gain dominated above 1,500 m. The most important transitions were forest loss at lower elevations for pastures and croplands, forest gain in abandoned pastures and cropland in mid‐elevation areas, and shrub encroachment into highland grasslands. Expert validation confirmed the observed trends, but some areas of apparent forest gain were associated with new shade coffee, pine, or eucalypt plantations. In addition, after controlling for elevation and country, forest gain was associated with a decline in the rural population. Although we document an overall gain in forest cover, the recent reversal of forest gains in Colombia demonstrates that these coupled natural‐human systems are highly dynamic and there is an urgent need of a regional real‐time land‐use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services monitoring network.     

Seasonal and spatial population loads of a tropical insect: the case of the coffee leaf-miner in Mexico

Abstract.

• 1 The effect of weather fluctuations in a tropical rain forest upon a leaf-miner (the coffee leaf-miner Leucoptera coffeella Guerin-Meneville (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae)) was studied in Veracruz, Mexico. The combined effect of temperature and precipitation upon the leaf-miner populations was investigated in coffee plantations located along an elevation transect and throughout the annual seasons. The effect of plant diversity, displayed by the presence or absence of shade trees in coffee plantations, upon the population loads of the leaf-miner was also investigated.
• 2 The leaf-miner population increased significantly during the period of intermediate temperature and low precipitation (spring season). Elevation also affected the population load of the insect: leaf-miner populations were larger at low elevations (where temperatures are high and precipitation low) than at high elevations.
• 3 Plant structural diversity did not affect the population loads of the leaf-miner.
• 4 The results indicate that the direct and indirect effects of temperature and precipitation are significant factors in the population dynamics of the coffee leafminer. It is suggested that even moderate fluctuations in climatic conditions in tropical and subtropical regions may also play an important role in the dynamics of tropical insect populations, similar to that found in temperate zones where climatic fluctuations are extreme.

     

Studies on fish movement dynamics in a tropical floodplain river: Prerequisites for a procedure to monitor the impacts of mining

Abstract Towards the end of the Wet season in the tropical coastlands of northern Australia, there are dramatic upstream movements of many fish species in some seasonally flowing streams. These movements are considered to be a part of refuge-seeking migrations. Aspects of the dynamics of the movements in Magela Creek (in the ‘Top End’ of the Northern Territory) downstream from the Ranger Uranium Mine have been examined with a range of techniques (mainly direct observation) to facilitate the development of a possible procedure for monitoring impacts of the mine on the fish community of the creek system. Data on diel patterns of movements validated that monitoring, for 1 h at midday at a single point adjacent to the mine, reflects day-to-day changes in total diel movements. To help identify the location of any impacts arising in the future, information on upstream progress rates, longitudinal changes in movements, and movements between the creek and lowland billabongs, were used to (i) demonstrate the creek-long continuity of movements and (ii) indicate the possible sources and destinations of fish approaching the mine. Marked differences in sources were apparent for two groups of species: terapontids originating from the lowland creek channels, and chequered rainbowfish and ambassids originating from the floodplain and lowland billabongs. Identification of the relative contributions from these habitats will require additional monitoring effort.     

Predicting dispersal of auto‐gyrating fruit in tropical trees: a case study from the Dipterocarpaceae

Seed dispersal governs the distribution of plant propagules in the landscape and hence forms the template on which density‐dependent processes act. Dispersal is therefore a vital component of many species coexistence and forest dynamics models and is of applied value in understanding forest regeneration. Research on the processes that facilitate forest regeneration and restoration is given further weight in the context of widespread loss and degradation of tropical forests, and provides impetus to improve estimates of seed dispersal for tropical forest trees. South‐East Asian lowland rainforests, which have been subject to severe degradation, are dominated by trees of the Dipterocarpaceae family which constitute over 40% of forest biomass. Dipterocarp dispersal is generally considered to be poor given their large, gyration‐dispersed fruits. However, there is wide variability in fruit size and morphology which we hypothesize mechanistically underpins dispersal potential through the lift provided to seeds mediated by the wings. We explored experimentally how the ratio of fruit wing area to mass (“inverse wing loading,” IWL) explains variation in seed dispersal kernels among 13 dipterocarp species by releasing fruit from a canopy tower. Horizontal seed dispersal distances increased with IWL, especially at high wind speeds. Seed dispersal of all species was predominantly local, with 90% of seed dispersing <10 m, although maximum dispersal distances varied widely among species. We present a generic seed dispersal model for dipterocarps based on attributes of seed morphology and provide modeled seed dispersal kernels for all dipterocarp species with IWLs of 1–50, representing 75% of species in Borneo.     

Climate change in tropical fresh waters (comment on the paper ‘Plankton dynamics under different climatic conditions in space and time’ by de Senerpont Domis et al., )

相似文献   

Environment and host-plant genotype effects on the seasonal dynamics of a predatory mite on cassava in sub-humid tropical Africa

1 In tropical dry seasons, survival of small arthropods such as predatory mites is often negatively affected by low relative humidity (RH). For species that do not diapause or migrate to refuges, the ability of the habitat to mitigate climatic conditions becomes crucial.
2 The relative effect of macro-habitat (dry grassland hill, humid multiple cropping area, humid riparian forest) and microhabitat (host-plant genotypes with hairy, semi-hairy and glabrous apices) on the seasonal dynamics of the phytoseiid mite Typhlodromalus aripo , a predator of Mononychellus tanajoa on cassava, was examined in a field experiment during a dry season. The effect of RH and plant genotype on T. aripo egg survival was determined in an environment control chamber.
3 Predator abundance was higher in humid multiple cropping areas and on hairy cassava compared with the other habitat types and cassava genotypes.
4 Discriminant and regression analyses showed that the predator's dry season persistence was related to high RH, high plant vigour and hairy apices, but not to prey abundance.
5 In the controlled climate experiment, the effect of host-plant morphology was evident only at the intermediate RH level of 55%. An effect of apex hairiness was not found.
6 It is concluded that the effect of genotype on T. aripo persistence diminishes under low RH conditions, and that supportive effects of apex hairs become effective only in the field, probably through protection from wind and/or intraguild predation. Humid multiple cropping areas planted with hairy and vigorous cassava genotypes are suitable dry season reservoirs for T. aripo .     

Life history and population dynamics of a tree species in tropical semi‐arid climate: A case study with Cordia oncocalyx

In semi‐arid climates, plant population dynamics are strongly influenced by the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall. We monitored a population of the tree species Cordia oncocalyx (Boraginaceae) for 24 months in the dry thorny woodland of semi‐arid northeastern Brazil, to investigate which life‐history traits allow this tree to be locally dominant. We used horizontal life tables and a Lefkovitch matrix and tested for relationships among demographic parameters of seedling, infant, juvenile, immature, virginile and reproductive ontogenetic stages with rainfall and canopy openness. Germination and recruitment occurred in the rainy months, and dry‐season mortality occurred only in seedlings (76% and 100%, first and second years, respectively) and infants (3% and 6%). Juveniles showed greater height growth under more open canopies (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.24), suggesting that light availability influences growth. The population growth rate was λ = 1.0336, and the highest sensitivity occurred in the infant‐juvenile transition. Our results show light as a restrictive growth factor for plants in the juvenile stage and confirm the strong influence of rainfall on the dynamics of trees in a seasonally dry environment. The formation of a persistent seed bank with germination concentrated at the rainfall onset but spreading over the rainy season are strategies that hedge bets before establishment. The formation of a bank of infants, which can resume growth as soon as there is water, hedges bets after establishment. We attribute the positive population growth rate of Cordia oncocalyx to survival strategies allowing bet‐hedging both before and after establishment.     

MELODIE: a whole-farm model to study the dynamics of nutrients in dairy and pig farms with crops

In regions of intensive pig and dairy farming, nutrient losses to the environment at farm level are a source of concern for water and air quality. Dynamic models are useful tools to evaluate the effects of production strategies on nutrient flows and losses to the environment. This paper presents the development of a new whole-farm model upscaling dynamic models developed at the field or animal scale. The model, called MELODIE, is based on an original structure with interacting biotechnical and decisional modules. Indeed, it is supported by an ontology of production systems and the associated programming platform DIESE. The biotechnical module simulates the nutrient flows in the different animal, soil and crops and manure sub-models. The decision module relies on an annual optimization of cropping and spreading allocation plans, and on the flexible execution of activity plans for each simulated year. These plans are examined every day by an operational management sub-model and their application is context dependent. As a result, MELODIE dynamically simulates the flows of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, copper, zinc and water within the whole farm over the short and long-term considering both the farming system and its adaptation to climatic conditions. Therefore, it is possible to study both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the environmental risks, and to test changes of practices and innovative scenarios. This is illustrated with one example of simulation plan on dairy farms to interpret the Nitrogen farm-gate budget indicator. It shows that this indicator is able to reflect small differences in Nitrogen losses between different systems, but it can only be interpreted using a mobile average, not on a yearly basis. This example illustrates how MELODIE could be used to study the dynamic behaviour of the system and the dynamic of nutrient flows. Finally, MELODIE can also be used for comprehensive multi-criterion assessments, and it also constitutes a generic and evolving framework for virtual experimentation on animal farming systems.     

Dendritic synchrony and transient dynamics in a coupled oscillator model of the dopaminergic neuron

Transient increases in spontaneous firing rate of mesencephalic dopaminergic neurons have been suggested to act as a reward prediction error signal. A mechanism previously proposed involves subthreshold calcium-dependent oscillations in all parts of the neuron. In that mechanism, the natural frequency of oscillation varies with diameter of cell processes, so there is a wide variation of natural frequencies on the cell, but strong voltage coupling enforces a single frequency of oscillation under resting conditions. In previous work, mathematical analysis of a simpler system of oscillators showed that the chain of oscillators could produce transient dynamics in which the frequency of the coupled system increased temporarily, as seen in a biophysical model of the dopaminergic neuron. The transient dynamics was shown to be consequence of a slow drift along an invariant subset of phase space, with rate of drift given by a Lyapunov function. In this paper, we show that the same mathematical structure exists for the full biophysical model, giving physiological meaning to the slow drift and the Lyapunov function, which is shown to describe differences in intracellular calcium concentration in different parts of the cell. The duration of transients was long, being comparable to the time constant of calcium disposition. These results indicate that brief changes in input to the dopaminergic neuron can produce long lasting firing rate transients whose form is determined by intrinsic cell properties.     

Carbon sequestration in tropical forests and water: a critical look at the basis for commonly used generalizations

Tree planting in the tropics is conducted for a number of reasons including carbon sequestration, but often competes with increasingly scarce water resources. The basics of forest and water relations are frequently said to be well understood but there is a pressing need to better understand and predict the hydrological effects of land‐use and climate change in the complex and dynamic landscapes of the tropics. This will remain elusive without the empirical data required to feed hydrological process models. It is argued that the current state of knowledge is confused by too broad a use of the terms ‘forest’ and ‘(af)forestation’, as well as by a bias towards using data generated mostly outside the tropics and for nondegraded soil conditions. Definitions of forest, afforestation and reforestation as used in the climate change community and their application by land and water managers need to be reconciled.     

物种多度和径级尺度对于评价群落系统发育结构的影响: 以尖峰岭热带山地雨林为例

研究不同径级尺度群落系统发育多样性有助于了解不同年龄模式下物种的亲缘关系及其群落系统发育结构; 但是关于物种多度对群落系统发育结构影响的研究较少。以海南尖峰岭热带山地雨林群落为例, 首先在不同径级尺度比较物种多度加权与否分别对4个广泛采用的系统发育指数的影响, 继而利用其中2个经过标准化处理的系统发育多样性指数: 净种间亲缘关系指数(net relatedness index, NRI)和净最近种间亲缘关系指数(nearest taxon index, NTI), 结合群落的生境类型来量度不同局域生境条件下不同径级尺度木本植物系统发育关系。结果发现: (1)未考虑物种多度加权的系统发育平均成对距离(mean pairwise distance, MPD)指数比考虑物种多度加权的MPD指数显著地高估了群落整体系统发育多样性, 且这种现象在小径级尺度(1 cm≤DBH<5 cm)最为明显。因此, 在森林监测样地中对于中、小径级群落系统发育结构研究中建议考虑物种多度信息。(2) 从群落组成整体系统发育结构来看, 尖峰岭热带山地雨林在几乎所有径级尺度和生境下均倾向于系统发育发散, 且随着径级的递增发散程度趋于明显(NRI<0)。(3)从群落组成局部系统发育结构来看, 尖峰岭热带山地雨林在中、小径级倾向于系统发育聚集(NTI>0), 而在大径级(DBH≥15 cm)则倾向于系统发育发散(NTI<0)。总之, 研究群落系统发育结构时应考虑物种多度的影响以及径级尺度效应。     

Stoichiometry of nutrient recycling by vertebrates in a tropical stream: linking species identity and ecosystem processes

Ecological stoichiometry offers a framework for predicting how animal species vary in recycling nutrients, thus providing a mechanism for how animal species identity mediates ecosystem processes. Here we show that variation in the rates and ratios at which 28 vertebrate species (fish, amphibians) recycled nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in a tropical stream supports stoichiometry theory. Mass-specific P excretion rate varied 10-fold among taxa and was negatively related to animal body P content. In addition, the N : P ratio excreted was negatively related to body N : P. Body mass (negatively related to excretion rates) explained additional variance in these excretion parameters. Body P content and P excretion varied much more among taxonomic families than among species within families, suggesting that familial composition may strongly influence ecosystem-wide nutrient cycling. Interspecific variation in nutrient recycling, mediated by phylogenetic constraints on stoichiometry and allometry, illustrates a strong linkage between species identity and ecosystem function.