Reanalyses of the historical series of UK variety trials to quantify the contributions of genetic and environmental factors to trends and variability in yield over time

Historical datasets have much to offer. We analyse data from winter wheat, spring and winter barley, oil seed rape, sugar beet and forage maize from the UK National List and Recommended List trials over the period 1948–2007. We find that since 1982, for the cereal crops and oil seed rape, at least 88% of the improvement in yield is attributable to genetic improvement, with little evidence that changes in agronomy have improved yields. In contrast, in the same time period, plant breeding and changes in agronomy have contributed almost equally to increased yields of forage maize and sugar beet. For the cereals prior to 1982, contributions from plant breeding were 42, 60 and 86% for winter barley, winter wheat and spring barley, respectively. These results demonstrate the overwhelming importance of plant breeding in increasing crop productivity in the UK. Winter wheat data are analysed in more detail to exemplify the use of historical data series to study and detect disease resistance breakdown, sensitivity of varieties to climatic factors, and also to test methods of genomic selection. We show that breakdown of disease resistance can cause biased estimates of variety and year effects, but that comparison of results between fungicide treated and untreated trials over years may be a means to screen for durable resistance. We find the greatest sensitivities of the winter wheat germplasm to seasonal differences in rainfall and temperature are to summer rainfall and winter temperature. Finally, for genomic selection, correlations between observed and predicted yield ranged from 0.17 to 0.83. The high correlation resulted from markers predicting kinship amongst lines rather than tagging multiple QTL. We believe the full value of these data will come from exploiting links with other experiments and experimental populations. However, not to exploit such valuable historical datasets is wasteful.     

On environmental variability and limits to similarity

Different model approaches to the problem of environmental variability and limits to similarity are reviewed. It is shown that the assumption of a strictly flat resource spectrum leads to singular results. Hence, the result of May & MacArthur that a qualitative difference exists between a constant and a weakly varying environment is not generally valid. For small variations in the environment, several of the models reduce to a common form and the limits to similarity depend only weakly upon the magnitude of the environmental fluctuations.     

Spreading speeds of spatially periodic integro-difference models for populations with nonmonotone recruitment functions

An idea used by Thieme (J. Math. Biol. 8, 173-187, 1979) is extended to show that a class of integro-difference models for a periodically varying habitat has a spreading speed and a formula for it, even when the recruitment function R(u, x) is not nondecreasing in u, so that overcompensation occurs. Numerical simulations illustrate the behavior of solutions of the recursion whose initial values vanish outside a bounded set.     

Chimpanzees use self-distraction to cope with impulsivity

It is unknown whether animals, like humans, can employ behavioural strategies to cope with impulsivity. To examine this question, we tested whether chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) would use self-distraction as a coping strategy in a situation in which they had to continually inhibit responses to accumulating candies in order to earn a greater amount of those rewards. We tested animals in three conditions in which they were sometimes given a set of toys and were sometimes allowed physical access to the accumulating candies. Chimpanzees allowed the rewards to accumulate longer before responding when they could divert their attention to the toys, and they manipulated the toys more when the candies were physically accessible. Thus, chimpanzees engaged in self-distraction with the toys when such behaviour was most beneficial as a coping mechanism.     

Antioxidant mechanisms of the Nereidid Laeonereis acuta (Anelida: Polychaeta) to cope with environmental hydrogen peroxide

Hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) is a naturally occurring prooxidant molecule, and its effects in the macroinvertebrate infauna were previously observed. The existence of a gradient of antioxidant enzymes activity (catalase [CAT], glutathione peroxidase [GPx], superoxide dismutase [SOD], and glutathione-S-transferase [GST]) and/or oxidative damage along the body of the estuarine polychaeta Laeonereis acuta (Polychaeta, Nereididae) was analyzed after exposure to H(2)O(2). Because this species secretes conspicuous amounts of mucus, its capability in degrading H(2)O(2) was studied. The results suggest that L. acuta deal with the generation of oxidative stress with different strategies along the body. In the posterior region, higher CAT and SOD activities ensure the degradation of inductors of lipid peroxidation such as H(2)O(2) and superoxide anion (O(2)(.-)). The higher GST activity in anterior region aids to conjugate lipid peroxides products. In the middle region, the lack of high CAT, SOD, or GST activities correlates with the higher lipid hydroperoxide levels found after H(2)O(2) exposure. Ten days of exposure to H(2)O(2) also induced oxidative stress (lipid peroxidation and DNA damage) in the whole animal paralleled by a lack of CAT induction. The mucus production contributes substantially to H(2)O(2) degradation, suggesting that bacteria that grow in this secretion provide this capability.     

Sediment-to-water blue-green algal recruitment in response to alum and environmental factors

The sediment-to-water recruitment of blue-green algae was investigated in a shallow lake following treatment with aluminum sulfate and sodium aluminate to control sediment phosphorus (P) release. A comparison of results from two summers each before and after treatment indicates that the treatment did not universally impact the recruitment of either sporulating or non-sporulating forms of blue-green algae. Blooms of Anabaena, Aphanizomenon, and Coelosphaerium resulted predominantly from growth in the water column following strong recruitment episodes lasting up to two weeks, while Microcystis populations were relatively insensitive to periodically high inputs from recruitment. The development of planktonic populations of Gloeotrichia echinulata, by contrast, were largely dependent on sustained recruitment in response to adequate light and temperature regimes at the sediment surface.The cellular P content of recruited G. echinulata colonies was unaffected by the accumulation of aluminum floc to the lake sediments. Both G. echinulata and C. naegelianum showed elevated levels of cellular P in newly recruited colonies as compared to planktonic colonies, indicating P transport from the sediments to the water column. Total P translocation by blue-green algae was negligible in the absence of a substantial recruitment of G. echinulata. The recruitment of G. echinulata, and hence the magnitude of P translocation, was therefore more responsive to environmental conditions prevalent at the sediments than to direct effects of the treatment itself.     

Scaling population responses to spatial environmental variability in advection-dominated systems

We model the spatial dynamics of an open population of organisms that disperse solely through advection in order to understand responses to multiscale environmental variability. We show that the distance over which a population responds to a localized perturbation, called the response length, can be characterized as an organisms average lifetime dispersal distance, unless there is strong density‐dependence in demographic or dispersal rates. Continuous spatial fluctuations in demographic rates at scales smaller than the response length will be largely averaged in the population distribution, whereas those in per capita emigration rates will be strongly tracked. We illustrate these results using a parameterized example to show how responses to environmental variability may differ in streams with different average current velocities. Our model suggests an approach to linking local dynamics dominated by dispersal processes to larger‐scale dynamics dominated by births and deaths.     

Linking variability of tree water use and growth with species resilience to environmental changes

Tree growth is an indicator of tree vitality and its temporal variability is linked to species resilience to environmental changes. Second-order statistics that quantify the cross-scale temporal variability of ecophysiological time series (statistical memory) could provide novel insights into species resilience. Species with high statistical memory in their tree growth may be more affected by disturbances, resulting in lower overall resilience and higher vulnerability to environmental changes. Here, we assessed the statistical memory, as quantified with the decay in standard deviation with increasing time scale, in tree water use and growth of co-occurring European larch Larix decidua and Norway spruce Picea abies along an elevational gradient in the Swiss Alps using measurements of stem radius changes, sap flow and tree-ring widths. Local-scale interspecific differences between the two conifers were further explored at the European scale using data from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank. Across the analysed elevational gradient, tree water use showed steeper variability decay with increasing time scale than tree growth, with no significant interspecific differences, highlighting stronger statistical memory in tree growth processes. Moreover, Norway spruce displayed slower decay in growth variability with increasing time scale (higher statistical memory) than European larch; a pattern that was also consistent at the European scale. The higher statistical memory in tree growth of Norway spruce in comparison to European larch is indicative of lower resilience of the former in comparison to the latter, and could potentially explain the occurrence of European larch at higher elevations at the Alpine treeline. Single metrics of resilience cannot often summarize the multifaceted aspects of ecosystem functioning, thus, second-order statistics that quantify the strength of statistical memory in ecophysiological time series could complement existing resilience indicators, facilitating the assessment of how environmental changes impact forest growth trajectories and ecosystem services.     

Revealing hidden evolutionary capacity to cope with global change

The extent to which global change will impact the long‐term persistence of species depends on their evolutionary potential to adapt to future conditions. While the number of studies that estimate the standing levels of adaptive genetic variation in populations under predicted global change scenarios is growing all the time, few studies have considered multiple environments simultaneously and even fewer have considered evolutionary potential in multivariate context. Because conditions will not be constant, adaptation to climate change is fundamentally a multivariate process so viewing genetic variances and covariances over multivariate space will always be more informative than relying on bivariate genetic correlations between traits. A multivariate approach to understanding the evolutionary capacity to cope with global change is necessary to avoid misestimating adaptive genetic variation in the dimensions in which selection will act. We assessed the evolutionary capacity of the larval stage of the marine polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa to adapt to warmer water temperatures. Galeolaria is an important habitat‐forming species in Australia, and its earlier life‐history stages tend to be more susceptible to stress. We used a powerful quantitative genetics design that assessed the impacts of three temperatures on subsequent survival across over 30 000 embryos across 204 unique families. We found adaptive genetic variation in the two cooler temperatures in our study, but none in the warmest temperature. Based on these results, we would have concluded that this species has very little capacity to evolve to the warmest temperature. However, when we explored genetic variation in multivariate space, we found evidence that larval survival has the potential to evolve even in the warmest temperatures via correlated responses to selection across thermal environments. Future studies should take a multivariate approach to estimating evolutionary capacity to cope with global change lest they misestimate a species’ true adaptive potential.     

Rethinking species' ability to cope with rapid climate change

Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent‐wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species.     

How to cope with the quest for new antibiotics

Since their introduction in therapy, antibiotics have played an essential role in human society, saving millions of lives, allowing safe surgery, organ transplants, cancer therapy. Antibiotics have also helped to elucidate several biological mechanisms and boosted the birth and growth of pharmaceutical companies, generating profits and royalties. The golden era of antibiotics and the scientific and economical drive of big pharma towards these molecules is long gone, but the need for effective antibiotics is increased as their pipelines dwindle and multi-resistant pathogenic strains spread. Here we outline some strategies that could help meet this emergency and list promising new targets.     

Genes alternations with exposure time of environmental factors

A theoretical model discussing the environmental factors (EFs) effect of exposure time on genes, which leads to human diseases, is presented using multi-logistic model. The advantages and limitations of this model are discussed in terms of its usefulness for simulating genetic samples. It has been shown that EFs affect genes with the same degree both at high exposure level, low exposure time and at low exposure level, high exposure time.     

Size variability of juvenile Atlantic salmon: links to environmental conditions

Climate change models predict a 2 to 6° C increase in air temperature within the next 100 years in the Maritime Provinces of eastern Canada. Higher air temperatures are expected to contribute to increased water temperatures, alterations in stream flow conditions, and ultimately reductions in fish growth. Mean annual size-at-age of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar decreased in the Northwest Miramichi and Southwest Miramichi Rivers between 1971–1999. Lengths-at-age of juveniles were significantly correlated between the two rivers. For Atlantic salmon parr, stronger associations between inter-cohort fork length ( L _F) than intra-cohort L _F were observed, suggesting that environmental conditions in the current year of growth have the more significant effects on size of age 2 year parr than conditions encountered the previous year by age 1 year parr of the same cohort. Fork lengths of parr were significantly and negatively associated with spring air and water temperatures. In the Miramichi River, increases in air and water temperature as predicted from climate change models may adversely affect growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon parr, reducing the overall productivity of the Atlantic salmon populations in this region.