A theoretical analysis of the morph frequency variation in the peppered moth over England and Wales

The migration-selection model for the spatial and temporal variation of morph frequencies of Biston betularia over England and Wales (Cook & Mani, 1980) has been extended to include effects due to non-visual selection. The parameters for non-visual selection were chosen from the recent determination by Mani (1980) and by Creed et al . (1980). The morph frequencies over England and Wales were obtained through computer simulation and the results were compared with data along the Manchester-Yorkshire, Central Wales-East Anglia and South Wales-London transects. Best fits to the data were obtained by using the non-visual selective values of Mani for carbonaria and modified values of Creed et al . for insularia . It is concluded that the observed polymorphism could be well explained through a balance of migration and visual and non-visual selections.     

A theoretical analysis of the morph frequency variation in the peppered moth over England and Wales

The migration-selection model for the spatial and temporal variation of morph frequencies of Biston betularia over England and Wales (Cook & Mani, 1980) has been extended to include effects due to non-visual selection. The parameters for non-visual selection were chosen from the recent determination by Mani (1980) and by Creed et al. (1980). The morph frequencies over England and Wales were obtained through computer simulation and the results were compared with data along the Manchester-Yorkshire, Central Wales-East Anglia and South Wales-London transects. Best fits to the data were obtained by using the non-visual selective values of Mani for carbonaria and modified values of Creed et al. for insularia. It is concluded that the observed polymorphism could be well explained through a balance of migration and visual and non-visual selections.     

Change and stability in a steep morph‐frequency cline in the snail Cepaea nemoralis (L.) over 43 years

Populations of the polymorphic land snail Cepaea nemoralis (L.) from Deepdale, Derbyshire, UK, sampled in 1965–67, showed a pattern of area effects, with steep clines among groups of populations differing in shell colour and banding morph frequencies. In 2010, most of these populations were resampled. In particular, a continuous transect made in 1967 of 42 quadrats (18.34 × 18.34 m) across a steep cline in several morph frequencies was completely resampled. In the dale as a whole, yellow shells had increased in frequency. In the transect, the frequencies of banding morphs showed no significant changes, although colour morphs showed some changes. Pink shells had increased in frequency in a section in which scrub had developed, and brown shells had increased in frequency in the area in which they had originally been at the highest frequency. In each case, the selection coefficients were of the order of 4%. Yellow had increased elsewhere. Nevertheless, both in the dale as a whole and in the transect, the pattern of geographical change in morph frequencies had remained essentially the same. Estimates of migration based on previous studies of marked snails and on modelling of the effect of drift and migration suggest that, regardless of whether the cline is a product of differential selection or of the gradual merging of previously separate founding populations, it has been in existence for a long time, and that migration occurs over greater distances than estimated from direct observation on marked snails. Although we can demonstrate that selection has occurred, the origin and maintenance of the cline and others similar to it remain in doubt; the development and maintenance of polymorphism in this species may require consideration of several processes operating on different time scales. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London     

Nymphal colour/pattern polymorphism in the leafhoppers Eupteryx urticae (F.) and E. cyclops Matsumura (Hemiptera: Auchenorrhyncha): spatial and temporal variation in morph frequencies

Variation in colour/pattern morph frequencies in Eupteryx urticae and E. cyclops is described for various field populations. Eupteryx urticae populations in S Wales exhibit a steep morph-ratio cline, such that black morph frequencies are positively correlated with altitude. High melanic frequencies at high-altitude sites, and the absence of the two darker morphs in lowland populations, suggest a similar trend in E. cyclops , but the data are insufficient to confirm this statistically. No differences in morph frequencies were detected on different parts of the primary host plant or on alternative host species. Similarly, there were no consistent trends within or between the two annual generations of either species, although melanic morph frequencies in one E. urticae population were heterogeneous over 10 generations. It is suggested that the polymorphism in E. urticae is strongly influenced by climate selection, darker morphs being at an advantage in cooler environments where their coloration enhances absorption of solar radiation. The advantage gained through thermal melanism is probably balanced by visual selection against black morphs by entomophagous parasitoids.     

The rise and fall of the Carbonaria form of the peppered moth

The evidence for change in frequency of the melanic carbonaria morph in the peppered moth Biston betularia (L.) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) in England and Wales is reviewed. At mid-20th century a steep cline of melanic phenotype frequency running from the north of Wales to the southern coast of England separated a region of 5% or less to west from 90% or more to northeast. By the 1980s the plateau of 90% frequency had contracted to northern England. The frequency has since continued to drop so that the maximum is now less than 50% and in most places below 10%. There have been similar declines in Europe and North America. Evidence from surveys and from two-point records shows the change to require 5% to 20% selection against the melanic. The melanic is more disadvantageous in regions where its frequency was initially high than in regions where it was low. Experiments to investigate predation by birds show a net advantage to carbonaria morphs in regions where typical frequencies were low at the time of the experiment, and a disadvantage where typical frequencies were high. This would be expected if environment and frequency were associated, and selective predation played a part in generating the association. The cryptic advantage of carbonaria was large in areas of heavy pollution where typical frequencies were 20% or less. The moth usually has a low density but is relatively highly mobile. The ability of present information to explain the patterns has been tested in simulations. They indicate a system under strong selection that has always been in a dynamic state without equilibria.     

Estimating Selection Coefficients in Spatially Structured Populations from Time Series Data of Allele Frequencies

Inferring the nature and magnitude of selection is an important problem in many biological contexts. Typically when estimating a selection coefficient for an allele, it is assumed that samples are drawn from a panmictic population and that selection acts uniformly across the population. However, these assumptions are rarely satisfied. Natural populations are almost always structured, and selective pressures are likely to act differentially. Inference about selection ought therefore to take account of structure. We do this by considering evolution in a simple lattice model of spatial population structure. We develop a hidden Markov model based maximum-likelihood approach for estimating the selection coefficient in a single population from time series data of allele frequencies. We then develop an approximate extension of this to the structured case to provide a joint estimate of migration rate and spatially varying selection coefficients. We illustrate our method using classical data sets of moth pigmentation morph frequencies, but it has wide applications in settings ranging from ecology to human evolution.     

Fruit colour polymorphism in Acacia ligulata: seed and seedling performance, clinal patterns, and chemical variation

Fruit colour polymorphisms are widespread in nature, but their ecological and evolutionary dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we examine Acacia ligulata, a shrub of the Australian arid zone which exhibits a red/orange/yellow aril colour polymorphism. We asked whether the polymorphism had a genetic basis; whether selection acted differentially on morphs during the seed and seedling stages; whether geographic variation in morph frequencies was correlated with environmental factors; and whether morphs differed in physical or chemical characteristics that might influence selection on them. When grown to maturity in a common greenhouse environment, maternal families of seeds showed phenotypic patterns consistent with biparental genetic control of the polymorphism. In contrast to other fruit-colour polymorphic species, progeny of A. ligulata morphs did not vary in rates of seedling emergence or survival in a common garden. Sampling along a 580 km transect revealed clinal variation in morph frequencies. Frequencies of the yellow morph decreased, and frequencies of the red morph increased, across a gradient of decreasing temperature and increasing rainfall. Morphs did not differ in seed mass, aril mass, or in profiles of fatty acids and flavonoids in either arils or seeds. However, morphs showed consistent differences in carotenoid profiles' and elemental content of arils, suggesting that selection by avian and insect seed dispersers, seed predators and herbivores should be investigated. These patterns indicate that both abiotic and biotic factors may contribute to selection on the A. ligulata polymorphism. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

COLOR PATTERN POLYMORPHISM IN THE LAKE ERIE WATER SNAKE,NERODIA SIPEDON INSULARUM

Populations of the water snake, Nerodia sipedon, on islands in western Lake Erie are polymorphic for color pattern. These populations include banded, intermediate, and unbanded morphs while surrounding mainland populations consist solely of the banded morph. The hypothesis that this polymorphism is maintained by strong selection and migration pressures is widely accepted. Unbanded morphs are apparently more cryptic along island shorelines while banded morphs are more cryptic on the mainland. Migration of banded morphs from the mainland explains their persistence in island populations. Data collected in a capture-mark-recapture program on six islands provide no evidence of differential selection among morphs; morph frequencies do not differ among age classes, between once-captured and multiply-captured snakes, or between scarred and unscarred snakes. Furthermore, herring gulls, the most common snake predators in the island area, appear to detect banded and unbanded model snakes with equal ease. High site fidelity of water snakes and the distribution of morphs among islands suggest that migration from the mainland is not common. However, islands close to each other are similar in morph frequency, and water snakes have colonized islands elsewhere in the Great Lakes, indicating that some migration does occur. Recently, the frequency of banded morphs has increased in island populations while adult population sizes have declined. This increase in banded morphs is interpreted as reflecting an increased impact of migration from the mainland into these reduced populations. One scenario for the evolution and maintenance of this polymorphism is that selection was important in establishing unbanded morphs in island populations as they became isolated from the mainland. As populations declined to their present size, the impact of migration from the mainland increased and is now swamping the effect of selection. Further declines in island population size may result in fixation of the banded morph.     

Patterns of differentiation in a colour polymorphism and in neutral markers reveal rapid genetic changes in natural damselfly populations

The existence and mode of selection operating on heritable adaptive traits can be inferred by comparing population differentiation in neutral genetic variation between populations (often using F(ST) values) with the corresponding estimates for adaptive traits. Such comparisons indicate if selection acts in a diversifying way between populations, in which case differentiation in selected traits is expected to exceed differentiation in neutral markers [F(ST )(selected) > F(ST )(neutral)], or if negative frequency-dependent selection maintains genetic polymorphisms and pulls populations towards a common stable equilibrium [F(ST) (selected) < F(ST) (neutral)]. Here, we compared F(ST) values for putatively neutral data (obtained using amplified fragment length polymorphism) with estimates of differentiation in morph frequencies in the colour-polymorphic damselfly Ischnura elegans. We found that in the first year (2000), population differentiation in morph frequencies was significantly greater than differentiation in neutral loci, while in 2002 (only 2 years and 2 generations later), population differentiation in morph frequencies had decreased to a level significantly lower than differentiation in neutral loci. Genetic drift as an explanation for population differentiation in morph frequencies could thus be rejected in both years. These results indicate that the type and/or strength of selection on morph frequencies in this system can change substantially between years. We suggest that an approach to a common equilibrium morph frequency across all populations, driven by negative frequency-dependent selection, is the cause of these temporal changes. We conclude that inferences about selection obtained by comparing F(ST) values from neutral and adaptive genetic variation are most useful when spatial and temporal data are available from several populations and time points and when such information is combined with other ecological sources of data.     

Disequilibrium in some Cepaea populations

Phenotypic disequilibrium is a measure available, along with morph frequency, in many published sets of sample data recording the polymorphism of shell colour and pattern in the snail Cepaea nemoralis. The relation of disequilibrium to morph frequency for the colour (pink/yellow) and banding (unbanded/banded) loci has been examined for a large and widespread set of data. The direction of disequilibrium is a function of frequency at the two loci in a way that suggests that selection favours combinations of common morphs, whichever they are. This could indicate that such combinations are common because they have been selected. The data are therefore consistent with the proposal that populations are generally subject to selection of varying directions at different places and times, acting on the phenotype. In combination with migration, such selection could lead to prolonged polymorphism.     

A countrywide survey of colour morph frequencies in the spider Enoplognatha ovata (Glerck) (Araneae: Theridiidae): evidence for natural selection

Data on the frequencies of the main colour morphs ( lineata, redimita and ovata ) of Enoplognatha ovata have been collected from a total of 454 Ordnance Survey 10 km squares distributed throughout Great Britain. Only c. 0.5% of samples were monomorphic, for lineata in each case. Multiple regression analysis has been used to assess possible associations between morph frequencies and principal components derived from nine environmental variables. The distribution of morph frequencies is not random but shows weak clines associated with certain climatic factors. These large scale clines indicate the action of natural selection although very local variations in morph frequencies may result from selection and/or drift.     

A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

Summary .  We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike's information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.     

Melanic moths and charges in epiphytic vegetation in north-west England and north Wales

In 1973 the appearance and epiphyte cover of tree trunks was examined along a 125 km cline of melanic frequency in the peppered moth in NW England and N Wales. The sampled sites were resurveyed in 1986. There has been a marked increase in the crustose lichen Lecanora conizaeoides at the eastern end of the transect, an increase in lichen diversity in the middle of the transect and a possible decline in large foliose forms at the western end. These changes are discussed in relation to the eastward shift of the cline in melanic frequencies in the moth.     

中国东北样带的梯度分析及其预测

陆地样带研究已成为国际地圈-生物圈计划(IGBP)全球变化研究的重要手段与热点。中国东北样带(NECT)已被列为IGBP国际全球变化陆地样带之一。该样带在东经112°与130°30＇之间沿北纬43°30＇设置,长约1600km,是一条中纬度温带以降水为驱动因素的梯度,具有由温带针阔叶混交林向温带草原的3个亚地带——草甸草原、典型草原与荒漠草原过渡的空间系列。该样带上有4个生态实验站。在大量的固定样地、实验调查研究资料与数据的基础上给出了样带的初步梯度分析及在全球变化图景下的预测,包括其地理位置、设置意义、地形地貌、气候梯度、土壤类型、植被类型和土地利用格局,一个遥感数据驱动的模型和NPP模型在整个样带上运行过。今后NECT将在生物地球化学循环(水、C、N、P等与痕量气体CO_2、CH_4等)、生态系统结构、功能与动态、生物多样性、土地利用与土地覆盖、动态全球植被模型(DGVM)以及高分辨率遥感数据应用等方面得到加强,将成为我国全球变化与陆地生态系统(GCTE)与其它IGBP核心项目研究的前沿阵地。     

Natural selection in populations subject to a migration load

Migration tends to oppose the effects of divergent natural selection among populations. Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have demonstrated that this migration-selection balance constrains genetic divergence among populations. In contrast, relatively few studies have examined immigration's effects on fitness and natural selection within recipient populations. By constraining local adaptation, migration can lead to reduced fitness, known as a "migration load," which in turn causes persistent natural selection. We develop a simple two-island model of migration-selection balance that, although very general, also reflects the natural history of Timema cristinae walking-stick insects that inhabit two host plant species that favor different cryptic color patterns. We derive theoretical predictions about how migration rates affect the level of maladaptation within populations (measured as the frequency of less-cryptic color-pattern morphs), which in turn determines the selection differential (the within-generation morph frequency change). Using data on color morph frequencies from 25 natural populations, we confirm previous results showing that maladaptation is higher in populations receiving more immigrants. We then present novel evidence that this increased maladaptation leads to larger selection differentials, consistent with our model. Our results provide comparative evidence that immigration elevates the variance in fitness, which in turn leads to larger selection differentials, consistent with Fisher's Theorem of Natural Selection. However, we also find evidence that recurrent adult migration between parapatric populations may tend to obscure the effects of selection.     

Migration and genetic structure of the grain aphid (Sitobion avenae) in Britain related to climate and clonal fluctuation as revealed using microsatellites

Genetic structuring of populations reflects the interaction of genetic drift, mutation, migration and selection, with influences from life history. Aphids are interesting in this regard as they have the potential for unusually high levels of dispersal and natural selection, which typically counter each other. In the present study, winged grain aphids Sitobion avenae (F.) were collected in four 12.2-m high suction traps along a north-south transect in Britain in order to eliminate sampling bias from plant hosts (cereals and grasses; Poaceae), it being known that these insects show host adaptation demonstrable using molecular markers. Samples were analysed at four polymorphic microsatellite loci over two consecutive years. Population allele frequencies were similar nationally during the two years, although clonal diversity varied greatly between sites and years. In the first sampling year following a harsh winter, diversity was found to display a latitudinal clinal trend: the proportion of unique clones (genotypes) increased with latitude. However, this pattern was less apparent the following year, after a milder winter. Nonetheless, overall FST analysis showed that there was little spatial genetic structuring in either sampling year. These data support the view that the insect is highly migratory and also support a theoretical model and previous data suggesting that the reproductive mode is clinal in S. avenae. This appears to be because natural selection (reduced reproductive success of asexual genotypes under cold conditions) is sufficiently powerful to overcome the homogenizing effects of strong migration. There was no clear evidence for isolation by distance for the genetic data obtained. The data are compared with similar data from other aphid species and other insects. Only by the collection of such data sets can an accurate picture be built up relating genetic variability to flight behaviour, including migratory ambit in this group of insects since, due to their small size and rapid dilution in the air, other marking approaches are impracticable over large geographical distances.     

Neutral gene flow in the presence of a selected gene with random or assortative mating

Neutral gene flow in an island model in the presence of a gene subject to selection has been analysed. The selection regime on the gene is such that the maintenance of a stable interpopulation differentiation at this locus is allowed for very low values of the migration rate. Mating at this locus may be random or assortative. Many models of zygotic or prezygotic isolating mechanisms with unifactorial inheritance are represented by this genetic model. Two general solutions for migration rates tending toward zero have been obtained for the case of migration preceding selection and vice versa. It is found that the zygotic isolating mechanisms and one type of prezygotic isolating mechanisms have the same qualitative and quantitative effects for the same values of selection coefficients and of recombination frequencies between the selected gene and the neutral gene. A second type of prezygotic mechanism behaves in a different way: the reduction of gene flow caused by such mechanisms is also a function of the “mating coefficients” of the various genotypes.     

Genetic drift within a protected polymorphism: enigmatic variation in color-morph frequencies in the candy-stripe spider, Enoplognatha ovata

The candy-stripe spider, Enoplognatha ovata, exhibits a striking color polymorphism comprising three morphs. A number of lines of evidence strongly suggest that this polymorphism is maintained by natural selection: its presence in a sister species, E. latimana; the physical nature of the variation; the virtual lack of monomorphic populations; the highly consistent rank-order of morphs within populations; and the presence of large-scale clines associated with climatic variables. However, the absence of selection is equally strongly suggested by very local surveys of morph frequencies over space and time, perturbation experiments, and a variance in morph frequency between populations that is virtually independent of spatial scale. In addition, local spatial patterns in one study site (Nidderdale, Yorkshire, England) have been explained in terms of intermittent drift over half a century ago, a hypothesis supported here by the distributions of four other genetic markers (two allozyme and two visible polymorphisms). A heuristic model is suggested that reconciles these apparently contradictory messages regarding the importance of drift and selection in this system. It is proposed that when allele frequencies of the color morph redimita lie between approximately 0.05 and 0.3, the deltaq on q plot is very shallow, so that within this region, where the majority of populations lie, selection is weak and drift is the major force determining local morph frequencies. However, outside this range of frequencies, powerful selection acts to protect the polymorphism. This model may apply to polymorphisms in other species and explain why evidence of selection in natural populations is often elusive.     

AN EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF SELECTION ON COLOR MORPHS OF THE POLYMORPHIC SPIDER ENOPLOGNATHA OVATA (ARANEAE: THERIDIIDAE)

The annual theridiid spider Enoplognatha ovata exhibits a genetically based color polymorphism of red and nonred phenotypes. We evaluated fitness differences between red and nonred spiders by manipulating morph frequencies in a population in which red morphs were rare (≤5%). Broods from red females were introduced to open experimental plots from which natural aggregations of spiders had been repeatedly removed. Control plots in which spiders were removed but not replaced were used to estimate spider immigration from surrounding vegetation into experimental plots. Morph frequencies observed in experimental plots one year following the manipulation were adjusted by immigration estimates and tested against frequencies predicted with the hypothesis of no selection. We found no evidence of selection against red morphs: female morph frequencies in experimental plots did not differ significantly from expected frequencies assuming no selection; female frequencies did not change significantly between subadult and adult stages; and red and nonred spiders exhibited similar fecundities. We conclude that 1) selection on E. ovata color morphs is not likely to be detected easily within a single population because of the swamping effect of dispersal and 2) local patterns of morph-frequency variation may arise more from dispersal and drift than from selection on the color phenotypes.     

Genotype frequencies associated with incompatibility systems in tristylous plants

A general procedure has been given previously for calculating frequencies of the morphs Long, Mid, and Short in equilibrium populations of tristylous plants. It is now demonstrated that an equilibrium state actually exists at the genotype level if this procedure produces admissible morph frequencies. This result holds in a diploid model, with or without linkage between the two loci involved. It is shown how the genotype frequencies may be determined for any set of mating probabilities. It is also explained how these frequencies may be calculated in a tetraploid model incorporating double reduction. The general theory is applied to a particular situation where the Mid morph is at a selective disadvantage as a seed parent.