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1.
  总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Aim To test the influences of island area, island isolation, and human‐introduced mammalian predators on avian extinctions that have occurred on oceanic islands worldwide. Location The oceanic islands of the world. Methods We augmented and re‐examined an existing data set for 218 oceanic islands by means of causal modelling using path analysis (a form of structural equation modelling) and a null model. Results The number of extinctions was not a simple function of the number of bird species on the various islands. Whereas introduced mammalian predators had an influence on the number of extinctions, island area (via indirect influences) and isolation (via direct influences) were equally or more important. Main conclusions The multiple influences of physical and biotic factors on past extinctions can be revealed through modelling the causal influences of physical attributes of islands on biological characteristics, and the causal influences of both physical and biological characteristics on extinctions.  相似文献   

2.
    
A recent paper by Karels et al ., 'The biogeography of avian extinctions on oceanic islands' ( Journal of Biogeography , 2008, 35 , 1106–1111), uses structural equation modelling to assess the causes of the number of island bird species driven extinct in the historical period. Here, we critically assess the conclusions of the paper and argue that it does not provide the new insights into the causes of extinction in island birds that its authors claim.  相似文献   

3.
    
Disentangling the multiple factors controlling species diversity is a major challenge in ecology. Island biogeography and environmental filtering are two influential theories emphasizing respectively island size and isolation, and the abiotic environment, as key drivers of species richness. However, few attempts have been made to quantify their relative importance and investigate their mechanistic basis. Here, we applied structural equation modelling, a powerful method allowing test of complex hypotheses involving multiple and indirect effects, on an island‐like system of 22 French Guianan neotropical inselbergs covered with rock‐savanna. We separated the effects of size (rock‐savanna area), isolation (density of surrounding inselbergs), environmental filtering (rainfall, altitude) and dispersal filtering (forest‐matrix openness) on the species richness of all plants and of various ecological groups (terrestrial versus epiphytic, small‐scale versus large‐scale dispersal species). We showed that the species richness of all plants and terrestrial species was mainly explained by the size of rock‐savanna vegetation patches, with increasing richness associated with higher rock‐savanna area, while inselberg isolation and forest‐matrix openness had no measurable effect. This size effect was mediated by an increase in terrestrial‐habitat diversity, even after accounting for increased sampling effort. The richness of epiphytic species was mainly explained by environmental filtering, with a positive effect of rainfall and altitude, but also by a positive size effect mediated by enhanced woody‐plant species richness. Inselberg size and environmental filtering both explained the richness of small‐scale and large‐scale dispersal species, but these ecological groups responded in opposite directions to altitude and rainfall, that is positively for large‐scale and negatively for small‐scale dispersal species. Our study revealed both habitat diversity associated with island size and environmental filtering as major drivers of neotropical inselberg plant diversity and showed the importance of plant species growth form and dispersal ability to explain the relative importance of each driver.  相似文献   

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Aim

To develop a causal understanding of the drivers of Species distribution model (SDM) performance.

Location

United Kingdom (UK).

Methods

We measured the accuracy and variance of SDMs fitted for 518 species of invertebrate and plant in the UK. Our measure of variance reflects variation among replicate model fits, and taxon experts assessed model accuracy. Using directed acyclic graphs, we developed a causal model depicting plausible effects of explanatory variables (e.g. species' prevalence, sample size) on SDM accuracy and variance and quantified those effects using a multilevel piecewise path model.

Results

According to our model, sample size and niche completeness (proportion of a species' niche covered by sampling) directly affect SDM accuracy and variance. Prevalence and range completeness have indirect effects mediated by sample size. Challenging conventional wisdom, we found that the effect of prevalence on SDM accuracy is positive. This reflects the facts that sample size has a positive effect on accuracy and larger sample sizes are possible for widespread species. It is possible, however, that the omission of an unobserved confounder biased this effect. Previous studies, which reported negative correlations between prevalence and SDM accuracy, conditioned on sample size.

Main conclusions

Our model explicates the causal basis of previously reported correlations between SDM performance and species/data characteristics. It also suggests that niche completeness has similarly large effects on SDM accuracy and variance as sample size. Analysts should consider niche completeness, or proxies thereof, in addition to sample size when deciding whether modelling is worthwhile.  相似文献   

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It has been argued that widespread extinctions of top predators have changed terrestrial ecosystem structures through mesopredator release, where increased abundances of medium-sized predators have detrimental effects on prey communities. This top-down concept has received much attention within conservation biology, but few studies have demonstrated the phenomenon. The concept has been criticized since alternative explanations involving bottom-up impacts from bioclimatic effects on ecosystem productivity and from anthropogenic habitat change are rarely considered. We analyse the response of a mesopredator (the red fox) to declines in top predators (wolf and Eurasian lynx) and agricultural expansion over 90 years in Sweden, taking bioclimatic effects into account. We show a top-down mesopredator release effect, but ecosystem productivity determined its strength. The impacts of agricultural activity were mediated by their effects on top predator populations. Thus, both top-down and bottom-up processes need to be understood for effective preservation of biodiversity in anthropogenically transformed ecosystems.  相似文献   

8.
This study examines interrelationships between eight leaf attributes (specific leaf mass, area, dry mass, lamina thickness, mesophyll cell number per cm2, mesophyll cell volume, chloroplast volume, and number of chloroplasts per mesophyll cell) in field-grown plants of 94 species from the Eastern Pamir Mountains, at elevations between 3800 and 4750 m. Unlike most other mountain areas, the Eastern Pamirs, Karakorum system, Tadjikistan provide localities where low temperatures and radiation combine with moisture stress at high altitudes. For all the attributes measured, significant differences were found between plants with different mesophyll types. Leaves with dorsiventral palisade structure (dorsal palisade, ventral spongy mesophyll cells) had thicker leaves with larger but fewer mesophyll cells, containing more and larger chloroplasts. These differences in mesophyll type are reflected in differences in the total surface of mesophyll cells per unit leaf area ( A mes/ A ) or volume ( A mes/ V ). Plants with isopalisade leaf structure (palisade cells under both dorsal and ventral surfaces) are more commonly xerophytes and their increased values of A mes/ A and A mes/ V decrease CO2 mesophyll resistance, which is an important adaptation to drought. Path analysis shows the critical importance of mesophyll cell volume in leading to the covariance between the different leaf attributes and hence to specific leaf mass (SLM), even though mesophyll cell volume is not itself strongly correlated with SLM. This is because mesophyll cell volume increases SLM through its effects on leaf thickness and chloroplast number per cell, but decreases SLM through its negative effect on mesophyll cell density.  相似文献   

9.
    
In many studies, the causal factors of male copulatory success in leks cannot be experimentally analysed under natural conditions. Information is based on the analysis of correlation and on multiple regression models. However, these methods are often flawed or unsuitable for conclusive results. By contrast, an explicit model of the breeding behaviour of male fallow deer (Dama dama L.) has been formulated using structural (regression) equations. The model describes with outstanding precision the network of short-term determinants of male copulatory success. Harem size is identified as the most important indirect cause of male copulatory success and, in its turn, it is a function of (i) lek attendance, (ii) intensity of herding, (iii) aggressive behaviour towards other bucks and (iv) courtship. Comparing the results of the structural-equations model with those of a partial correlation analysis and of a multiple regression study, we conclude that the statistical method presented here better describes the complexity of the causal web which characterizes leks than other statistical methods commonly used in these studies.  相似文献   

10.
    
Investigating the properties of ecological landscapes that influence gene flow among populations can provide key insights into the earliest stages of biological divergence. Both ecological and geographical factors can reduce gene flow, which can lead to population divergence, but we know little of the relative strengths of these phenomena in nature. Here, we use a novel application of structural equation modelling to quantify the contributions of ecological and geographical isolation to spatial genetic divergence in 17 species of Anolis lizards. Our comparative analysis shows that although both processes contributed significantly, geographical isolation explained substantially more genetic divergence than ecological isolation (36.3 vs. 17.9% of variance respectively), suggesting that despite the proposed ubiquity of ecological divergence, non‐ecological factors play the dominant role in the evolution of spatial genetic divergence.  相似文献   

11.
Landscape genetics provides a valuable framework to understand how landscape features influence gene flow and to disentangle the factors that lead to discrete and/or clinal population structure. Here, we attempt to differentiate between these processes in a forest‐dwelling small carnivore [European pine marten (Martes martes)]. Specifically, we used complementary analytical approaches to quantify the spatially explicit genetic structure and diversity and analyse patterns of gene flow for 140 individuals genotyped at 15 microsatellite loci. We first used spatially explicit and nonspatial Bayesian clustering algorithms to partition the sample into discrete clusters and evaluate hypotheses of ‘isolation by barriers’ (IBB). We further characterized the relationships between genetic distance and geographical (‘isolation by distance’, IBD) and ecological distances (‘isolation by resistance’, IBR) obtained from optimized landscape models. Using a reciprocal causal modelling approach, we competed the IBD, IBR and IBB hypotheses with each other to unravel factors driving population genetic structure. Additionally, we further assessed spatially explicit indices of genetic diversity using sGD across potentially overlapping genetic neighbourhoods that matched the inferred population structure. Our results revealed a complex spatial genetic cline that appears to be driven jointly by IBD and partial barriers to gene flow (IBB) associated with poor habitat and interspecific competition. Habitat loss and fragmentation, in synergy with past overharvesting and possible interspecific competition with sympatric stone marten (Martes foina), are likely the main factors responsible for the spatial genetic structure we observed. These results emphasize the need for a more thorough evaluation of discrete and clinal hypotheses governing gene flow in landscape genetic studies, and the potential influence of different limiting factors affecting genetic structure at different spatial scales.  相似文献   

12.
    
The extinction of species before they are discovered and named (dark extinction, DE) is widely inferred as a significant part of species loss in the ‘pre-taxonomic’ period (approx. 1500–1800 CE) and, to some extent, in the ‘taxonomic period’ (approx. 1800–present) as well. The discovery of oceanic islands and other pristine habitats by European navigators and the consequent introduction of destructive mammals, such as rats and goats, started a process of anthropogenic extinction. Much ecosystem change happened before systematic scientific recording, so has led to DE. Statistical methods are available to robustly estimate DE in the ‘taxonomic period’. For the ‘pre-taxonomic period’, simple extrapolation can be used. The application of these techniques to world birds, for example, suggests that approximately 56 DEs occurred in the ‘taxonomic period’ (1800–present) and approximately 180 in the ‘pre-taxonomic period’ (1500–1800). Targeting collection activities in extinction hotspots, to make sure organisms are represented in collections before their extinction, is one way of reducing the number of extinct species without a physical record (providing that collection efforts do not themselves contribute to species extinction).  相似文献   

13.
Repeatable behavioural traits (‘personality’) have been shown to covary with fitness, but it remains poorly understood how such behaviour–fitness relationships come about. We applied a multivariate approach to reveal the mechanistic pathways by which variation in exploratory and aggressive behaviour is translated into variation in reproductive success in a natural population of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus. Using path analysis, we demonstrate a key role for provisioning behaviour in mediating the link between personality and reproductive success (number of fledged offspring). Aggressive males fed their nestlings at lower rates than less aggressive individuals. At the same time, their low parental investment was associated with increased female effort, thereby positively affecting fledgling production. Whereas male exploratory behaviour was unrelated to provisioning behaviour and reproductive success, fast-exploring females fed their offspring at higher rates and initiated breeding earlier, thus increasing reproductive success. Our findings provide strong support for specific mechanistic pathways linking components of behavioural syndromes to reproductive success. Importantly, relationships between behavioural phenotypes and reproductive success were obscured when considering simple bivariate relationships, underlining the importance of adopting multivariate views and statistical tools as path analysis to the study of behavioural evolution.  相似文献   

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Understanding genetic variation for complex traits in heterogeneous environments is a fundamental problem in biology. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Fournier‐Level et al. ( 2013 ) analyse quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing ecologically important phenotypes in mapping populations of Arabidopsis thaliana grown in four habitats across its native European range. They used causal modelling to quantify the selective consequences of life history and morphological traits and QTL on components of fitness. They found phenology QTL colocalizing with known flowering time genes as well as novel loci. Most QTL influenced fitness via life history and size traits, rather than QTL having direct effects on fitness. Comparison of phenotypes among environments found no evidence for genetic trade‐offs for phenology or growth traits, but genetic trade‐offs for fitness resulted because flowering time had opposite fitness effects in different environments. These changes in QTL effects and selective consequences may maintain genetic variation among populations.  相似文献   

16.
结构方程模型及其在生态学中的应用   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5       下载免费PDF全文
基于多变量统计方法同时研究自然系统内多个因子之间的相互关系, 是阐释复杂的自然系统的一个重要手段。相比传统的多变量统计法, 结构方程模型基于研究者的先验知识预先设定系统内因子间的依赖关系, 不仅能够判别各因子之间的关系强度(路径系数), 还能对整体模型进行拟合和判断, 从而能更全面地了解自然系统。由于结构方程模型只在近年才被应用到生态学的数据分析中, 因此该文试图对其作一简略介绍, 包括结构方程模型的定义和变量类型, 结合事例研究展现结构方程模型分析的一般步骤、在生态学中的应用以及相关软件的介绍等。望能为相关研究人员提供直观的认识, 加强结构方程模型在生态学数据分析中的应用。  相似文献   

17.
    
The number of primate species and genera on thirty-one south-east Asian islands west of the Wallace Line, including Sulawesi, is highly significantly related to surface area of the islands, as expected, but the z value (slope) of each relationship is low (0.21 for species). No association exists between number of taxa and distance to nearest mainland, or to nearest larger island. Excluding the non-Sunda Shelf islands only negligibly changes the relationships. A significant correlation exists between island size and median taxon's body mass, with taxa of 10 kg or more occurring on only the two largest islands. Hence, the primate community changes greatly with island size. The existence of several genera, but no congeners, on small islands, and a checkerboard distribution of the two nocturnal genera (Nycticebus and Tarsius), hints at interspecific competition as a cause of extinction. It is suggested that for comparative purposes, genera/area analyses might be more useful than species/area analyses, because genera are more taxonomically stable, perhaps more comparable across deeper taxa, and might be a better indication of degree of variability.  相似文献   

18.
The influence of study design on the ability to detect the effects of landscape pattern on gene flow is one of the most pressing methodological gaps in landscape genetic research. To investigate the effect of study design on landscape genetics inference, we used a spatially‐explicit, individual‐based program to simulate gene flow in a spatially continuous population inhabiting a landscape with gradual spatial changes in resistance to movement. We simulated a wide range of combinations of number of loci, number of alleles per locus and number of individuals sampled from the population. We assessed how these three aspects of study design influenced the statistical power to successfully identify the generating process among competing hypotheses of isolation‐by‐distance, isolation‐by‐barrier, and isolation‐by‐landscape resistance using a causal modelling approach with partial Mantel tests. We modelled the statistical power to identify the generating process as a response surface for equilibrium and non‐equilibrium conditions after introduction of isolation‐by‐landscape resistance. All three variables (loci, alleles and sampled individuals) affect the power of causal modelling, but to different degrees. Stronger partial Mantel r correlations between landscape distances and genetic distances were found when more loci were used and when loci were more variable, which makes comparisons of effect size between studies difficult. Number of individuals did not affect the accuracy through mean equilibrium partial Mantel r, but larger samples decreased the uncertainty (increasing the precision) of equilibrium partial Mantel r estimates. We conclude that amplifying more (and more variable) loci is likely to increase the power of landscape genetic inferences more than increasing number of individuals.  相似文献   

19.
    
The consequences of natural selection can be understood from a purely statistical perspective. In contrast, an explicitly causal approach is required to understand why trait values covary with fitness. In particular, key evolutionary constructs, such as sexual selection, fecundity selection, and so on, are best understood as selection via particular fitness components. To formalize and operationalize these concepts, we must disentangle the various causal pathways contributing to selection. Such decompositions are currently only known for linear models, where they are sometimes referred to as “Wright's rules.” Here, we provide a general framework, based on path analysis, for partitioning selection among its contributing causal pathways. We show how the extended selection gradient—which represents selection arising from a trait's causal effects on fitness—can be decomposed into path-specific selection gradients, which correspond to distinct causal mechanisms of selection. This framework allows for nonlinear effects and nonadditive interactions among variables, which may be estimated using standard statistical methods (e.g., generalized linear [mixed] models or generalized additive models). We thus provide a generalization of Wright's path rules that accommodates the nonlinear and nonadditive mechanisms by which natural selection commonly arises.  相似文献   

20.
    
Aim A positive power relationship between maximal body mass and land area has previously been reported of the form Mmax ∝ Area0.5 whilst allometric scaling theory predicts either Mmax ∝ Area1.33 or Mmax ∝ Area1. We provide an analysis of the maximal mass–area relationship for four island systems, to test the hypothesis that community relaxation following isolation converges in each case to a slope of Area0.5. Location Islands of the Japanese archipelago, the western Mediterranean, the Sea of Cortés and Southeast Asia. Methods We calculated the relationship between island area and the maximal body mass of the largest mammal species on the island using linear regression models with log‐transformed variables, and tested the hypothesis that the slopes were not significantly different from 0.5. Results We found a slope of 0.47 within the Japanese archipelago, 0.42 for western Mediterranean islands, 0.73 for the Sea of Cortés islands and 0.50 for Southeast Asian islands. None of these slopes were significantly different from 0.5. Main conclusions Our results provide further empirical support for previous findings of a general maximal body mass–area relationship of Mmax ∝ Area0.5, but they deviate from theoretical predictions. We hypothesize that this mass–area relationship was the ultimate end point of community relaxation initiated by the isolation of the mammal communities. Maximal body mass on each island today probably reflects the interaction between energetic constraints, home range size and island area.  相似文献   

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