Discerning the impact of human‐mediated factors on biodiversity using bioclimatic envelope models and partial regression techniques

Aim Human‐related pressures are growing in species‐rich regions and pose a threat to the conservation of biodiversity. Here, we use the available data for five taxonomic groups (ferns, monocotyledons, dicotyledons, birds and monkeys) to exemplify a procedure directed to discriminate the degree of conflict between human actions and biodiversity. Location Bioko island, Equatorial Guinea. Methods Using bioclimatic envelope modelling techniques devoted to produce estimations of the potential distributions, we generated geographical representations of the variation in the total number of species as well as in the number of endemic and threatened species. We then employed partial regression techniques to determine how and to what extent current environmental, habitat and human‐derived variables are associated with these potential species richness values. Results Although the type of associations we looked for was sometimes difficult to discern since the same patterns could be explained by different types of variables, our results show that potential species richness values are generally positively associated with human‐related factors (mainly agriculture and bushmeat hunting activities), suggesting that the localities with environmental conditions favourable to higher species richness tend to be those exploited by humans. Main conclusions We propose that the combined use of distribution models and partial regression techniques can support a better understanding of the relationship between species occurrences/preferences and human‐related factors and inform future conservation initiatives, particularly in small but hyperdiverse territories, in which dispersal limitations do not play a prominent role.     

Notes on compositional diversity

This paper tries to show some ways and means of simple (binary) modelling, whereby diversity can be interconnected with other attributes of a community. A new type of scaling (called characteristic scaling) is introduced for further use.     

Statistical shape modelling versus linear scaling: Effects on predictions of hip joint centre location and muscle moment arms in people with hip osteoarthritis

Marker-based dynamic functional or regression methods are used to compute joint centre locations that can be used to improve linear scaling of the pelvis in musculoskeletal models, although large errors have been reported using these methods. This study aimed to investigate if statistical shape models could improve prediction of the hip joint centre (HJC) location. The inclusion of complete pelvis imaging data from computed tomography (CT) was also explored to determine if free-form deformation techniques could further improve HJC estimates. Mean Euclidean distance errors were calculated between HJC from CT and estimates from shape modelling methods, and functional- and regression-based linear scaling approaches. The HJC of a generic musculoskeletal model was also perturbed to compute the root-mean squared error (RMSE) of the hip muscle moment arms between the reference HJC obtained from CT and the different scaling methods. Shape modelling without medical imaging data significantly reduced HJC location error estimates (11.4 ± 3.3 mm) compared to functional (36.9 ± 17.5 mm, p = <0.001) and regression (31.2 ± 15 mm, p = <0.001) methods. The addition of complete pelvis imaging data to the shape modelling workflow further reduced HJC error estimates compared to no imaging (6.6 ± 3.1 mm, p = 0.002). Average RMSE were greatest for the hip flexor and extensor muscle groups using the functional (16.71 mm and 8.87 mm respectively) and regression methods (16.15 mm and 9.97 mm respectively). The effects on moment-arms were less substantial for the shape modelling methods, ranging from 0.05 to 3.2 mm. Shape modelling methods improved HJC location and muscle moment-arm estimates compared to linear scaling of musculoskeletal models in patients with hip osteoarthritis.     

Different modelling tools of aquatic ecosystems: A proposal for a unified approach

Over the last few decades, several modelling tools have been developed for the simulation of hydrodynamic and biogeochemical processes in aquatic ecosystems. Until late 70's, coupling hydrodynamic models to biogeochemical models was not common and today, problems linked to the different scales of interest remain. The time scale of hydrodynamic phenomena in coastal zone (minutes to hours) is much lower than that of biogeochemistry (few days). Over the last years, there has been an increasing tendency to couple hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models in a clear recognition of the importance of incorporating in one model the feedbacks between physical, chemical and biological processes. However, different modelling teams tend to adopt different modelling tools, with the result that benchmarking exercises are sometimes difficult to achieve in projects involving several institutions. Therefore, the objectives of this paper are to provide a quick overview of available modelling approaches for hydrodynamic and biogeochemical modelling, to help people choose among the diversity of available models, as a function of their particular needs, and to propose a unified approach to allow modellers to share software code, based on the object oriented programming potentiality. This approach is based on having object dynamic link libraries that may be linked to different model shells. Each object represents different processes and respective variables, e.g. hydrodynamic, phytoplankton and zooplankton objects. Some simple rules are proposed to link available objects to programs written in different source codes.     

Fauna habitat modelling and mapping: A review and case study in the Lower Hunter Central Coast region of NSW

Abstract Habitat models are now broadly used in conservation planning on public lands. If implemented correctly, habitat modelling is a transparent and repeatable technique for describing and mapping biodiversity values, and its application in peri‐urban and agricultural landscape planning is likely to expand rapidly. Conservation planning in such landscapes must be robust to the scrutiny that arises when biodiversity constraints are placed on developers and private landholders. A standardized modelling and model evaluation method based on widely accepted techniques will improve the robustness of conservation plans. We review current habitat modelling and model evaluation methods and provide a habitat modelling case study in the New South Wales central coast region that we hope will serve as a methodological template for conservation planners. We make recommendations on modelling methods that are appropriate when presence‐absence and presence‐only survey data are available and provide methodological details and a website with data and training material for modellers. Our aim is to provide practical guidelines that preserve methodological rigour and result in defendable habitat models and maps. The case study was undertaken in a rapidly developing area with substantial biodiversity values under urbanization pressure. Habitat maps for seven priority fauna species were developed using logistic regression models of species‐habitat relationships and a bootstrapping methodology was used to evaluate model predictions. The modelled species were the koala, tiger quoll, squirrel glider, yellow‐bellied glider, masked owl, powerful owl and sooty owl. Models ranked sites adequately in terms of habitat suitability and provided predictions of sufficient reliability for the purpose of identifying preliminary conservation priority areas. However, they are subject to multiple uncertainties and should not be viewed as a completely accurate representation of the distribution of species habitat. We recommend the use of model prediction in an adaptive framework whereby models are iteratively updated and refined as new data become available.     

Multi-output regression with structurally incomplete target labels: A case study of modelling global vegetation cover

Weakly-supervised learning has recently emerged in the classification context where true labels are often scarce or unreliable. However, this learning setting has not yet been extensively analyzed for regression problems, which are typical in macroecology. We further define a novel computational setting of structurally noisy and incomplete target labels, which arises, for example, when the multi-output regression task defines a distribution such that outputs must sum up to unity. We propose an algorithmic approach to reduce noise in the target labels and improve predictions. We evaluate this setting with a case study in global vegetation modelling, which involves building a model to predict the distribution of vegetation cover from climatic conditions based on global remote sensing data. We compare the performance of the proposed approach to several incomplete target baselines. The results indicate that the error in the targets can be reduced by our proposed partial-imputation algorithm. We conclude that handling structural incompleteness in the target labels instead of using only complete observations for training helps to better capture global associations between vegetation and climate.     

Distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography: an integrative framework for generating and testing alternative biogeographical hypotheses

Statistical phylogeographic studies contribute to our understanding of the factors that influence population divergence and speciation, and that ultimately generate biogeographical patterns. The use of coalescent modelling for analyses of genetic data provides a framework for statistically testing alternative hypotheses about the timing and pattern of divergence. However, the extent to which such approaches contribute to our understanding of biogeography depends on how well the alternative hypotheses chosen capture relevant aspects of species histories. New modelling techniques, which explicitly incorporate spatio-geographic data external to the gene trees themselves, provide a means for generating realistic phylogeographic hypotheses, even for taxa without a detailed fossil record. Here we illustrate how two such techniques – species distribution modelling and its historical extension, palaeodistribution modelling – in conjunction with coalescent simulations can be used to generate and test alternative hypotheses. In doing so, we highlight a few key studies that have creatively integrated both historical geographic and genetic data and argue for the wider incorporation of such explicit integrations in biogeographical studies.     

Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or ‘bioclimate envelope’) modelling, yet the effects of using different niche‐based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy‐guiding applications. Location The Western Cape of South Africa. Methods We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential distributions under current and predicted future climate for four species (including two subspecies) of Proteaceae. Each model was built using an identical set of five input variables and distribution data for 3996 sampled sites. We compare model predictions by testing agreement between observed and simulated distributions for the present day (using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and kappa statistics) and by assessing consistency in predictions of range size changes under future climate (using cluster analysis). Results Our analyses show significant differences between predictions from different models, with predicted changes in range size by 2030 differing in both magnitude and direction (e.g. from 92% loss to 322% gain). We explain differences with reference to two characteristics of the modelling techniques: data input requirements (presence/absence vs. presence‐only approaches) and assumptions made by each algorithm when extrapolating beyond the range of data used to build the model. The effects of these factors should be carefully considered when using this modelling approach to predict species ranges. Main conclusions We highlight an important source of uncertainty in assessments of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and emphasize that model predictions should be interpreted in policy‐guiding applications along with a full appreciation of uncertainty.     

A rule-based approach to the modelling of bacterial ecosystems

This paper presents an approach to ecological/evolutionary modelling that is inspired by natural bacterial ecosystems and bacterial evolution. An individual-based artificial ecosystem model is proposed, which is designed to explore the evolvability of adaptive behavioural strategies in artificial bacteria represented by rule-based learning classifier systems. The proposed ecosystem model consists of a n-dimensional environmental grid, which can contain different types of artificial resources in arbitrary arrangements. The resources provide the energy that is necessary for the organisms to sustain life, and can trigger different types of behaviour in the organisms, such as movement towards nutrients and away from toxic substances, growth, and the controlled release of signalling resources. The balance between energy and material is modelled carefully to ensure that the ecosystem is dissipative. Those organisms that are able to efficiently exploit the available resources gradually accumulate enough energy to reproduce (by binary fission) and generate copies of themselves in the environment. Organisms are also able to produce their own resources, which can potentially be used as markers to send signals to other organisms (a behaviour known as quorum sensing). The complex relationships between stimuli and actions in the organisms are stochastically altered by means of mutations, thus enabling the organisms to adapt to their environment and maximise their lifespan and reproductive success. In this paper, the proposed bacterial ecosystem model is defined formally and its structure is discussed in detail. This is followed by results from simulation experiments that illustrate the model's operation and how it can be used in evolutionary modelling/computing scenarios.     

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.     

The biogeography of avian extinctions on oceanic islands

Aim To test the influences of island area, island isolation, and human‐introduced mammalian predators on avian extinctions that have occurred on oceanic islands worldwide. Location The oceanic islands of the world. Methods We augmented and re‐examined an existing data set for 218 oceanic islands by means of causal modelling using path analysis (a form of structural equation modelling) and a null model. Results The number of extinctions was not a simple function of the number of bird species on the various islands. Whereas introduced mammalian predators had an influence on the number of extinctions, island area (via indirect influences) and isolation (via direct influences) were equally or more important. Main conclusions The multiple influences of physical and biotic factors on past extinctions can be revealed through modelling the causal influences of physical attributes of islands on biological characteristics, and the causal influences of both physical and biological characteristics on extinctions.     

Modelling as a tool to redesign livestock farming systems: a literature review

Livestock farming has recently come under close scrutiny, in response especially to environmental issues. Farmers are encouraged to redesign their livestock farming systems in depth to improve their sustainability. Assuming that modelling can be a relevant tool to address such systemic changes, we sought to answer the following question: ‘How can livestock farming systems be modelled to help farmers redesign their whole farming systems?’ To this end, we made a literature review of the models of livestock farming systems published from 2000 to mid-2009 (n = 79). We used an analysis grid based on three considerations: (i) system definition, (ii) the intended use of the model and (iii) the way in which farmers’ decision-making processes were represented and how agricultural experts and farmers were involved in the modelling processes. Consistent rationales in approaches to supporting changes in livestock farming were identified in three different groups of models, covering 83% of the whole set. These could be defined according to (i) the way in which farmers’ decisions were represented and (ii) the model's type of contribution to supporting changes. The first type gathered models that dynamically simulated the system according to different management options; the farmers’ decision-making processes are assumed to consist in choosing certain values for management factors. Such models allow long-term simulations and endorse different disciplinary viewpoints, but the farmers are weakly involved in their design. Models of the second type can indicate the best combination of farm activities under given constraints, provided the farmers’ objectives are profit maximisation. However, when used to support redesigning processes, they address neither how to implement the optimal solution nor its long-term consequences. Models of the third type enable users to dynamically simulate different options for the farming system, the management of which is assumed to be planned according to the farmers’ general objectives. Although more comprehensive, these models do not easily integrate different disciplinary viewpoints and different subsystems, which limits their usefulness as support tools for redesigning processes. Finally, we concluded about what specific requirements should be for modelling approaches if farmers were to be supported in redesigning their whole livestock farming systems using models.     

Unravelling gene networks from noisy under-determined experimental perturbation data

Systems biology aims to study the properties of biological systems in terms of the properties of their molecular constituents. This occurs frequently by a process of mathematical modelling. The first step in this modelling process is to unravel the interaction structure of biological systems from experimental data. Previously, an algorithm for gene network inference from gene expression perturbation data was proposed. Here, the algorithm is extended by using regression with subset selection. The performance of the algorithm is extensively evaluated on a set of data produced with gene network models at different levels of simulated experimental noise. Regression with subset selection outperforms the previously stated matrix inverse approach in the presence of experimental noise. Furthermore, this regression approach enables us to deal with under-determination, that is, when not all genes are perturbed. The results on incomplete data sets show that the new method performs well at higher number of perturbations, even when noise levels are high. At lower number of perturbations, although still being able to recover the majority of the connections, less confidence can be placed in the recovered edges.     

Multifaceted biodiversity modelling at macroecological scales using Gaussian processes

Aim

Modelling the response of β‐diversity (i.e., the turnover in species composition among sites) to environmental variation has wide‐ranging applications, including informing conservation planning, understanding community assembly and forecasting the impacts of climate change. However, modelling β‐diversity is challenging, especially for multiple diversity facets (i.e., taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity), and current methods have important limitations. Here, we present a new approach for predicting the response of multifaceted β‐diversity to the environment, called Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling (MBM). We illustrate the approach using both a plant diversity dataset from the French Alps and a set of simulated data. We also provide an implementation via an R package.

Location

French Alps.

Methods

For both the French Alps and the simulated communities, we compute β‐diversity indices (e.g., Sørensen dissimilarity, mean functional/phylogenetic pairwise distance) among site pairs. We then apply Gaussian process regression, a flexible nonlinear modelling technique, to predict β‐diversity in response to environmental distance among site pairs. For comparison, we also perform similar analyses using Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM), a well‐established method for modelling β‐diversity in response to environmental distance.

Results

In the Alps, we observed a general increase in taxonomic (TD) and functional (FD) β‐diversity (i.e., site pairs were more different from each other) as the climatic distance between site pairs increased. GDM performed better for TD and FD when fitting to calibration data, whereas MBM performed better for both when predicting to a validation dataset. For phylogenetic β‐diversity, MBM outperformed GDM in predicting the observed decrease in phylogenetic β‐diversity with increasing climatic distance.

Main conclusions

Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling provides a flexible new approach that expands our capacity to model multiple facets of β‐diversity. Advantages of MBM over existing methods include simpler assumptions, more flexible modelling, potential to consider multiple facets of diversity across a range of diversity indices, and robust uncertainty estimation.

     

随机森林算法基本思想及其在生态学中的应用——以云南松分布模拟为例

通常来讲,生态学者对于解释生态关系、描述格局和过程、进行空间或时间预测比较感兴趣。这些工作可以通过模拟输出值(响应)与一些特征值(即解释变量)的关系来实现。然而,生态数据模拟遇到了挑战,这是因为响应变量和预测变量可能是连续变量或离散变量。需要解释的生态关系通常是非线性的,并且解释变量之间具有复杂的相互作用关系。响应变量和解释变量存在缺失值并不是不常有的现象,奇异值也经常出现在生态数据中。此外,生态学者通常希望生态模型即要易于建立又易要于解释。通常是利用多种统计方法来分析处理各种各样情景中出现的独特的生态问题,这些模型包括(多元)逻辑回归、线性模型、生存模型、方差分析等等。随机森林是一个可以处理所有这些问题的有效方法。随机森林可以用来做分类、聚类、回归和生存分析、评估变量的重要性、检测数据中的奇异值、对缺失数据进行插补等。鉴于随机森林本身在算法上的优势,将就随机森林在生态学中的应用进行总结,对建模过程进行概述,并以云南松分布模拟研究为例,对其主要功能特点进行案例展示。通过对随机森林的一般术语、概念和建模思想进行介绍,有利于读者掌握本方法的应用本质,可以预见随机森林在生态学研究中将得到更多的应用和发展。     

Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles

Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with ‘no-action’ counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human–ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential ‘surprises'', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.     

The invasive bivalve <Emphasis Type="Italic">Limnoperna fortunei</Emphasis> enhances benthic invertebrate densities in South American floodplain rivers

An ecologically orientated flood protection project was implemented at the Austrian lowland Sulm River. Habitat modelling was conducted during a 3-year monitoring program to assess the effects of river bed embankment and the initiation of a new meander by constructing an initial side channel, and allowing self-developing side erosion. Hydrodynamic and physical habitat models were combined with statistical methods. This study focused on the necessity for including stability analysis when modelling spawning grounds. The critical erosion parameter of the cobbles at spawning grounds was analysed using numerical modelling combined with substrate maps of potential spawning grounds of nase (Chondrostoma nasus). Due to the specific characteristics of this reach of the Sulm River, instability of the riffles can hamper successful reproduction in nase. Spawning grounds of Chondrostoma nasus and their stability must be guaranteed at least for the duration of incubation. This morphodynamic necessity should be incorporated in future restoration projects and when artificially restoring spawning habitats. Handling editor: D. Ryder     

Using generalized dissimilarity modelling to analyse and predict patterns of beta diversity in regional biodiversity assessment

Generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) is a statistical technique for analysing and predicting spatial patterns of turnover in community composition (beta diversity) across large regions. The approach is an extension of matrix regression, designed specifically to accommodate two types of nonlinearity commonly encountered in large-scaled ecological data sets: (1) the curvilinear relationship between increasing ecological distance, and observed compositional dissimilarity, between sites; and (2) the variation in the rate of compositional turnover at different positions along environmental gradients. GDM can be further adapted to accommodate special types of biological and environmental data including, for example, information on phylogenetic relationships between species and information on barriers to dispersal between geographical locations. The approach can be applied to a wide range of assessment activities including visualization of spatial patterns in community composition, constrained environmental classification, distributional modelling of species or community types, survey gap analysis, conservation assessment, and climate-change impact assessment.     

The evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs from the perspective of quantitative ecospace modelling

The role of niche specialization and narrowing in the evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs has been widely discussed in the literature. However, previous studies have concentrated on a qualitative discussion of these variables only. Here, we use the recently developed approach of quantitative ecospace modelling to provide a high-resolution quantitative examination of the changes in dietary and ecological niche experienced by the ichthyosaurs throughout their evolution in the Mesozoic. In particular, we demonstrate that despite recent discoveries increasing our understanding of taxonomic diversity among the ichthyosaurs in the Cretaceous, when viewed from the perspective of ecospace modelling, a clear trend of ecological contraction is visible as early as the Middle Jurassic. We suggest that this ecospace redundancy, if carried through to the Late Cretaceous, could have contributed to the extinction of the ichthyosaurs. Additionally, our results suggest a novel model to explain ecospace change, termed the ‘migration model’.