Niche differentiation in a postglacial colonizer,the bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus

Species‐level environmental niche modeling has been crucial in efforts to understand how species respond to climate variation and change. However, species often exhibit local adaptation and intraspecific niche differences that may be important to consider in predicting responses to climate. Here, we explore whether phylogeographic lineages of the bank vole originating from different glacial refugia (Carpathian, Western, Eastern, and Southern) show niche differentiation, which would suggest a role for local adaptation in biogeography of this widespread Eurasian small mammal. We first model the environmental requirements for the bank vole using species‐wide occurrences (210 filtered records) and then model each lineage separately to examine niche overlap and test for niche differentiation in geographic and environmental space. We then use the models to estimate past [Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene] habitat suitability to compare with previously hypothesized glacial refugia for this species. Environmental niches are statistically significantly different from each other for all pairs of lineages in geographic and environmental space, and these differences cannot be explained by habitat availability within their respective ranges. Together with the inability of most of the lineages to correctly predict the distributions of other lineages, these results support intraspecific ecological differentiation in the bank vole. Model projections of habitat suitability during the LGM support glacial survival of the bank vole in the Mediterranean region and in central and western Europe. Niche differences between lineages and the resulting spatial segregation of habitat suitability suggest ecological differentiation has played a role in determining the present phylogeographic patterns in the bank vole. Our study illustrates that models pooling lineages within a species may obscure the potential for different responses to climate change among populations.     

Applications of ecological niche modeling for species delimitation: a review and empirical evaluation using day geckos (Phelsuma) from Madagascar

Although the systematic utility of ecological niche modeling is generally well known (e.g., concerning the recognition and discovery of areas of endemism for biogeographic analyses), there has been little discussion of applications concerning species delimitation, and to date, no empirical evaluation has been conducted. However, ecological niche modeling can provide compelling evidence for allopatry between populations, and can also detect divergent ecological niches between candidate species. Here we present results for two taxonomically problematic groups of Phelsuma day geckos from Madagascar, where we integrate ecological niche modeling with mitochondrial DNA and morphological data to evaluate species limits. Despite relatively modest levels of genetic and morphological divergence, for both species groups we find divergent ecological niches between closely related species and parapatric ecological niche models. Niche models based on the new species limits provide a better fit to the known distribution than models based upon the combined (lumped) species limits. Based on these results, we elevate three subspecies of Phelsuma madagascariensis to species rank and describe a new species of Phelsuma from the P. dubia species group. Our phylogeny continues to support a major endemic radiation of Phelsuma in Madagascar, with dispersals to Pemba Island and the Mascarene Islands. We conclude that ecological niche modeling offers great potential for species delimitation, especially for taxonomic groups exhibiting low vagility and localized endemism and for groups with more poorly known distributions. In particular, niche modeling should be especially sensitive for detecting recent parapatric speciation driven by ecological divergence, when the environmental gradients driving speciation are represented within the ecological niche models.     

Ecological niches as stable distributional constraints on mammal species, with implications for Pleistocene extinctions and climate change projections for biodiversity

Aim Theoretical work suggests that species’ ecological niches should remain relatively constant over long‐term ecological time periods, but empirical tests are few. We present longitudinal studies of 23 extant mammal species, modelling ecological niches and predicting geographical distributions reciprocally between the Last Glacial Maximum and present to test this evolutionary conservatism. Location This study covered distributional shifts in mammal species across the lower 48 states of the United States. Methods We used a machine‐learning tool for modelling species’ ecological niches, based on known occurrences and electronic maps summarizing ecological dimensions, to assess the ability of ecological niches as modelled in one time period to predict the geographical distribution of the species in another period, and vice versa. Results High intertemporal predictivity between niche models and species’ occurrences indicate that niche conservatism is widespread among the taxa studied, particularly when statistical power is considered as a reason for failure of reciprocal predictions. Niche projections to the present for 8 mammal taxa that became extinct at the end of the Pleistocene generally increased in area, and thus do not support the hypothesis of niche collapse as a major driving force in their extinction. Main conclusions Ecological niches represent long‐term stable constraints on the distributional potential of species; indeed, this study suggests that mammal species have tracked consistent climate profiles throughout the drastic climate change events that marked the end of the Pleistocene glaciations. Many current modelling efforts focusing on anticipating climate change effects on species’ potential geographical distributions will be bolstered by this result — in essence, the first longitudinal demonstration of niche conservatism.     

Patterns of niche filling and expansion across the invaded ranges of an Australian lizard

Studies of realized niche shifts in alien species typically ignore the potential effects of intraspecific niche variation and different invaded‐range environments on niche lability. We incorporate our detailed knowledge of the native‐range source populations and global introduction history of the delicate skink Lampropholis delicata to examine intraspecific variation in realized niche expansion and unfilling, and investigate how alternative niche modelling approaches are affected by that variation. We analyzed the realized niche dynamics of L. delicata using an ordination method, ecological niche models (ENMs), and occurrence records from 1) Australia (native range), 2) New Zealand, 3) Hawaii, 4) the two distinct native‐range clades that were the sources for the New Zealand and Hawaii introductions, and 5) the species’ global range (including Lord Howe Island, Australia). We found a gradient of realized niche change across the invaded ranges of L. delicata: niche stasis on Lord Howe Island, niche unfilling in New Zealand (16%), and niche unfilling (87%) and expansion (14%) in Hawaii. ENMs fitted to native‐range data generally identified suitable climatic conditions at sites where the species has established non‐native populations, whereas ENMs based on native‐range source clades and non‐native populations had lower spatial transferability. Our results suggest that the extent to which realized niches are maintained during invasion does not depend on species‐level traits. When realized niche shifts are predominately due to niche unfilling, fully capturing species’ responses along climatic gradients by basing ENMs on native distributions may be more important for accurate invasion forecasts than incorporating phylogenetic differentiation, or integrating niche changes in the invaded range.     

MaxEnt模型参数设置对其所模拟物种地理分布和生态位的影响——以茶翅蝽为例

【目的】生态位模型被广泛应用于入侵生物学和保护生物学研究,现有建模工具中,MaxEnt是最流行和运用最广泛的生态位模型。然而最近研究表明,基于MaxEnt模型的默认参数构建模型时,模型倾向于过度拟合,并非一定为最佳模型,尤其是在处理一些分布点较少的物种。【方法】以茶翅蝽为例,通过设置不同的特征参数、调控倍频以及背景拟不存在点数分别构建茶翅蝽的本土模型,然后将其转入入侵地来验证和比较模型,通过检测模型预测的物种对环境因子的响应曲线、潜在分布在生态空间中的生态位映射以及潜在分布的空间差异性,探讨3种参数设置对MaxEnt模型模拟物种分布和生态位的影响。【结果】在茶翅蝽的案例分析中,特征参数的设置对MaxEnt模型所模拟的潜在分布和生态位的影响最大,调控倍频的影响次之,背景拟不存在点数的影响最小。与其他特征相比,基于特征H和T的模型其响应曲线较为曲折;随着调控倍频的增加,响应曲线变得圆滑。【结论】在构建MaxEnt模型时,需要从生态空间中考虑物种的生态需求,分析模型参数对预测物种分布和生态位可能造成的影响。     

Predicting distributions of Mexican birds using ecological niche modelling methods

We tested the utility of the modelling program Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) for modelling ecological niches to make accurate predictions of geographical distributions for 25 bird species across Mexico. Specimen-based point-occurrence data were entered into the algorithm in the form of geographical coordinates, and related to digitized maps of environmental variables, including mean annual precipitation, elevation, mean annual temperature, and potential vegetation. Two Mexican states were used as test areas by withholding their points from model construction; these points were later overlaid on predictions to measure model performance. Statistically, most models (7890%) were significantly more powerful than random models in predicting occurrences in test states; model failures were most often due to low sample size for testing, rather than an inability to model distributions of particular species. The success of this test indicates that ecological niche modelling approaches such as GARP provide a promising tool for exploring a broad range of questions in ecology, biogeography and conservation.     

Differences between ecological niches in northern and southern populations of Angolan black and white colobus monkeys (Colobus angolensis palliatus and Colobus angolensis sharpei) throughout Kenya and Tanzania

Ecological niche models can be useful for clarifying relationships between environmental factors and a species’ geographic distribution. In this study, we use presence‐only data and environmental layers to create an ecological niche model to better understand the distribution of the East African Angolan black and white colobus monkey, Colobus angolensis palliatus, and to assess whether the model supports considering the population as two separate subspecies, Colobus angolensis sharpei and C. a. palliatus. We found the range of the predicted distribution for suitable habitat of C. a. palliatus as currently classified to be only 12.4% of that shown in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List range map and to be fragmented. As C. angolensis is considered a “Least Concern” species, this difference suggests that generalized maps may lead to understating the species’ extinction risk. When presence points were divided into two previously proposed subspecies —C. a. palliatus (Kenya and Northern Tanzania) and C. a. sharpei (Southern Tanzania)—we found significant environmental differences between the distributions. The most important ecological variable for C. a. palliatus was predominantly precipitation of the driest month (69.1%) whereas for C. a. sharpei annual precipitation (44.8%) and land cover (normalized difference vegetation index, 16.4%) were the most important. When comparing suitable ranges for the separate distributions, we found only a 1.2% geographical overlap. These differences are consistent with previous subspecies delineations of C. a. palliatus and C. a. sharpei based upon morphology, pelage, and genetics. Our study suggests that extirpation of C. a. palliatus in suitable habitat areas and occurrence of this subspecies in anthropogenic environments, warrant further consideration for conservation actions.     

A stochastic biodiversity model with overlapping niche structure

The niche is a fundamental ecological concept that underpins many explanations of patterns of biodiversity. The complexity of niche processes in ecological systems, however, means that it is difficult to capture them accurately in theoretical models of community assembly. In this study, we build upon simple neutral biodiversity models by adding the important ingredient of overlapping niche structure. Our model is spatially implicit and contains a fixed number of equal-sized habitats. Each species in the metacommunity arises through a speciation event; at which time, it is randomly assigned a fundamental niche or set of environments/habitats in which it can persist. Within each habitat, species compete with other species that have different but overlapping fundamental niches. Species abundances then change through ecological drift; each, however, is constrained by its maximum niche breadth and by the presence of other species in its habitats. Using our model, we derive analytical expressions for steady-state species abundance distributions, steady-state distributions of niche breadth across individuals and across species, and dynamic distributions of niche breadth across species. With this framework, we identify the conditions that produce the log-series species abundance distribution familiar from neutral models. We then identify how overlapping niche structure can lead to other species abundance distributions and, in particular, ask whether these new distributions differ significantly from species abundance distributions predicted by non-overlapping niche models. Finally, we extend our analysis to consider additional distributions associated with realized niche breadths. Overall, our results show that models with overlapping niches can exhibit behavior similar to neutral models, with the caveat that species with narrow fundamental niche breadths will be very rare. If narrow-niche species are common, it must be because they are in a non-overlapping niche or have countervailing advantages over broad-niche species. This result highlights the role that niches can play in establishing demographic neutrality.     

Intraspecific variation buffers projected climate change impacts on Pinus contorta

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an important tool to assess the impact of global environmental change. Many species exhibit ecologically relevant intraspecific variation, and few studies have analyzed its relevance for SDM. Here, we compared three SDM techniques for the highly variable species Pinus contorta. First, applying a conventional SDM approach, we used MaxEnt to model the subject as a single species (species model), based on presence–absence observations. Second, we used MaxEnt to model each of the three most prevalent subspecies independently and combined their projected distributions (subspecies model). Finally, we used a universal growth transfer function (UTF), an approach to incorporate intraspecific variation utilizing provenance trial tree growth data. Different model approaches performed similarly when predicting current distributions. MaxEnt model discrimination was greater (AUC – species model: 0.94, subspecies model: 0.95, UTF: 0.89), but the UTF was better calibrated (slope and bias – species model: 1.31 and −0.58, subspecies model: 1.44 and −0.43, UTF: 1.01 and 0.04, respectively). Contrastingly, for future climatic conditions, projections of lodgepole pine habitat suitability diverged. In particular, when the species'' intraspecific variability was acknowledged, the species was projected to better tolerate climatic change as related to suitable habitat without migration (subspecies model: 26% habitat loss or UTF: 24% habitat loss vs. species model: 60% habitat loss), and given unlimited migration may increase amount of suitable habitat (subspecies model: 8% habitat gain or UTF: 12% habitat gain vs. species model: 51% habitat loss) in the climatic period 2070–2100 (SRES A2 scenario, HADCM3). We conclude that models derived from within-species data produce different and better projections, and coincide with ecological theory. Furthermore, we conclude that intraspecific variation may buffer against adverse effects of climate change. A key future research challenge lies in assessing the extent to which species can utilize intraspecific variation under rapid environmental change.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

Measuring ecological niche overlap from occurrence and spatial environmental data

Aim Concerns over how global change will influence species distributions, in conjunction with increased emphasis on understanding niche dynamics in evolutionary and community contexts, highlight the growing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences between or within taxa. We propose a statistical framework to describe and compare environmental niches from occurrence and spatial environmental data. Location Europe, North America and South America. Methods The framework applies kernel smoothers to densities of species occurrence in gridded environmental space to calculate metrics of niche overlap and test hypotheses regarding niche conservatism. We use this framework and simulated species with pre‐defined distributions and amounts of niche overlap to evaluate several ordination and species distribution modelling techniques for quantifying niche overlap. We illustrate the approach with data on two well‐studied invasive species. Results We show that niche overlap can be accurately detected with the framework when variables driving the distributions are known. The method is robust to known and previously undocumented biases related to the dependence of species occurrences on the frequency of environmental conditions that occur across geographical space. The use of a kernel smoother makes the process of moving from geographical space to multivariate environmental space independent of both sampling effort and arbitrary choice of resolution in environmental space. However, the use of ordination and species distribution model techniques for selecting, combining and weighting variables on which niche overlap is calculated provide contrasting results. Main conclusions The framework meets the increasing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences. It is appropriate for studying niche differences between species, subspecies or intra‐specific lineages that differ in their geographical distributions. Alternatively, it can be used to measure the degree to which the environmental niche of a species or intra‐specific lineage has changed over time.     

Exploring the Effect of Asymmetric Mitochondrial DNA Introgression on Estimating Niche Divergence in Morphologically Cryptic Species

If potential morphologically cryptic species, identified based on differentiated mitochondrial DNA, express ecological divergence, this increases support for their treatment as distinct species. However, mitochondrial DNA introgression hampers the correct estimation of ecological divergence. We test the hypothesis that estimated niche divergence differs when considering nuclear DNA composition or mitochondrial DNA type as representing the true species range. We use empirical data of two crested newt species (Amphibia: Triturus) which possess introgressed mitochondrial DNA from a third species in part of their ranges. We analyze the data in environmental space by determining Fisher distances in a principal component analysis and in geographical space by determining geographical overlap of species distribution models. We find that under mtDNA guidance in one of the two study cases niche divergence is overestimated, whereas in the other it is underestimated. In the light of our results we discuss the role of estimated niche divergence in species delineation.     

Simulated responses to hypothetical fundamental niches

Abstract. Two graphical models of plant competition, the ‘ghost of competition past’ and the ‘hierarchical’ model are compared using a greatly simplified individual-based forest dynamics simulation. Assumed fundamental niche shapes are used to determine the basic growth responses of the species, but competition alters the realized niche. Differences in the two models, amount of niche overlap, disturbance, and removal and invasion of species are examined in simulation experiments. Without disturbance, the realized niche responses reveal abrupt boundaries between species in all cases, and thus the responses are generally platykurtic to rectangular with little overlap. In some cases overlap through the extension of abundance of weaker competitors into the area of greater resources — dominated by better competitors but still within their fundamental niche — creates skewed distributions, as have been observed and simulated in the past. When species are removed or invade, the abrupt boundaries and the lack of difference in final response shape indicate that past removals may be difficult to detect. This difficulty may be important because former species may be influencing the responses that are observed in common non-equilibrium distributions. Even when assumptions favor the illustration of a competitive hierarchy, actual distributions and dynamics do not differentiate between it and a model of the ghost of competition past.     

Climate‐driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies’ niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change

The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long‐term, large‐scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large‐scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely.     

Current and historical factors influencing patterns of species richness and turnover of birds in the Gulf of Guinea highlands

Aim The aims of this paper are to: examine how current and historical ecological factors affect patterns of species richness, endemism and turnover in the Gulf of Guinea highlands, test theoretical biogeographical predictions and provide information for making informed conservation decisions. Location The Gulf of Guinea highlands in West Africa. Methods We used multivariate and matrix regression models, and cluster analyses to assess the influence of current climate and current and historical isolation on patterns of richness and turnover for montane birds across the highlands. We examined three groups of birds: montane species (including widespread species), montane endemics and endemic subspecies. We applied a complementarity‐based reserve selection algorithm using species richness with irreplaceability measures to identify areas of high conservation concern. Results Environmental factors influenced richness for all groups of birds (species, endemic species and subspecies). Areas with high and consistent annual rainfall showed the highest species and endemic richness. Species clusters for all groups of birds generally differentiated three major montane regions, which are topographically isolated. Multiple mantel tests identified these same regions for endemic species and subspecies. The influence of historical isolation varied by species group; distributions of endemic montane species and subspecies were more associated with historical breaks than were all montane species, which included widespread non‐endemic species. Main conclusions Our analyses indicated important geographical structure amongst the bird assemblages in the highlands and, therefore, conservation prioritization should include mountains from within the geographical subregions identified in these analyses because these regions may harbour evolutionarily distinct populations of birds.     

An evaluation of transferability of ecological niche models

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is used widely to study species’ geographic distributions. ENM applications frequently involve transferring models calibrated with environmental data from one region to other regions or times that may include novel environmental conditions. When novel conditions are present, transferability implies extrapolation, whereas, in absence of such conditions, transferability is an interpolation step only. We evaluated transferability of models produced using 11 ENM algorithms from the perspective of interpolation and extrapolation in a virtual species framework. We defined fundamental niches and potential distributions of 16 virtual species distributed across Eurasia. To simulate real situations of incomplete understanding of species’ distribution or existing fundamental niche (environmental conditions suitable for the species contained in the study area; N* _F ), we divided Eurasia into six regions and used 1–5 regions for model calibration and the rest for model evaluation. The models produced with the 11 ENM algorithms were evaluated in environmental space, to complement the traditional geographic evaluation of models. None of the algorithms accurately estimated the existing fundamental niche (N* _F ) given one region in calibration, and model evaluation scores decreased as the novelty of the environments in the evaluation regions increased. Thus, we recommend quantifying environmental similarity between calibration and transfer regions prior to model transfer, providing an avenue for assessing uncertainty of model transferability. Different algorithms had different sensitivity to completeness of knowledge of N* _F , with implications for algorithm selection. If the goal is to reconstruct fundamental niches, users should choose algorithms with limited extrapolation when N* _F is well known, or choose algorithms with increased extrapolation when N* _F is poorly known. Our assessment can inform applications of ecological niche modeling transference to anticipate species invasions into novel areas, disease emergence in new regions, and forecasts of species distributions under future climate conditions.     

Modeled global invasive potential of Asian gypsy moths, Lymantria dispar

Asian populations of gypsy moths, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), remain poorly characterized – indeed, they are not presently accorded any formal taxonomic status within the broader species. Their ecology is similarly largely uncharacterized in the literature, except by assumption that it will resemble that of European populations. We developed ecological niche models specific to Asian populations of the species, which can in turn be used to identify a potential geographic distributional area for the species. We demonstrated statistically significant predictivity of distributional patterns within the East Asian range of these populations; projecting the Asian ecological niche model to Europe, correspondence with European distributions was generally good, although some differences may exist; projecting the ecological niche model globally, we characterized a likely potential invasive distribution of this set of populations across the temperate zone of both Northern and Southern Hemisphere.     

Linking habitat specialization with species' traits in European birds

Ecological specialization provides information about adaptations of species to their environment. However, identification of traits representing the relevant dimensions of ecological space remains challenging. Here we endeavoured to explain how complex habitat specializations relate to various ecological traits of European birds. We employed phylogenetic generalized least squares and information theoretic approach statistically controlling for differences in geographic range size among species. Habitat specialists had narrower diet niche, wider climatic niche, higher wing length/tail length ratio and migrated on shorter distances than habitat generalists. Our results support an expected positive link between habitat and diet niche breadth estimates, however a negative relationship between habitat and climate niche breadths is surprising. It implies that habitat specialists occur mostly in spatially restricted environments with high climatic variability such as mountain areas. This, however, complicates our understanding of predicted impacts of climatic changes on avian geographical distributions. Our results further corroborate that habitat specialization reflects occupation of morphological space, when specialists depend more on manoeuvrability of the flight and are thus more closely associated to open habitats than habitat generalists. Finally, our results indicate that long distance movements might hamper narrow habitat preferences. In conclusion, we have shown that species’ distributions across habitats are informative about their positions along other axes of ecological space and can explain states of particular functional traits, however, our results also reveal that the links between different niche estimates cannot be always straightforwardly predicted.     

Are large‐scale distributional shifts of the blue‐winged macaw (Primolius maracana) related to climate change?

Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue‐winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited. Location Historical distribution of the blue‐winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina. Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue‐winged macaw, based on point‐occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre‐1950 and post‐1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions. Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue‐winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species’ original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species’ range tended to show improvement for the species. Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue‐winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).