Decrease in body size of Danish goshawks during the twentieth century

Recent studies indicated that body size of various animals, including birds, changed during the twentieth century, and these changes were attributed to changes in food availability and climate. We used museum skins of goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) collected between 1854 and 1941 and between 1979 and 1998 in order to check whether body size of this species in Denmark changed during the study period. We compared three body measurements (wing, beak and tarsus length) and the first principal component (PC1) derived from these measurements of four groups of goshawks (adult and immature, females and males). We found that the wing length of goshawks collected after 1979 was significantly smaller in comparison with those collected before this year, and females were more affected than males. Immature birds (but not adults) collected after 1979 had significantly shorter beaks than those from the early period. Immature females collected after 1979 had shorter tarsi than those collected in the early period. There was a significant decrease in body size (as represented by PC1) from the early to late period, which was more pronounced among females and immature birds. In conclusion, body size of goshawks in Denmark decreased during the twentieth century.     

Politics and pellagra: the epidemic of pellagra in the U.S. in the early twentieth century.

The epidemic of pellagra in the first half of this century at its peak produced at least 250,000 cases and caused 7,000 deaths a year for several decades in 15 southern states. It also filled hospital wards in other states, which had a similar incidence but refused to report their cases. Political influences interfered, not only with surveillance of the disease, but also in its study, recognition of its cause, and the institution of preventive measures when they became known. Politicians and the general public felt that it was more acceptable for pellagra to be infectious than for it to be a form of malnutrition, a result of poverty and thus an embarrassing social problem. Retrospectively, a change in the method of milling cornmeal, degermination, which began shortly after 1900, probably accounted for the appearance of the epidemic; such a process was suggested at the time, but the suggestion was ignored.     

Demographic trends,pronatalism, and nationalist ideologies in the late twentieth century

This article explores the relationship between demographic trends and nationalist ideologies through an analysis of fertility policies in France, Romania, Singapore and Israel. Each of these countries has sought to increase birthrates through government initiatives. I examine the extent to which pronatalist programmes in these countries reflect ethno-nationalist ideologies, as opposed to more inclusive civic/cultural nationalist visions, and find that policies are moving in a more civic/cultural nationalist direction. Pronatalist policies are less often specifically aimed at dominant racial/ethnic groups and are less oriented towards 'traditional' gender roles. I argue that ethno-nationalist visions of the nation may become less influential, in part due to demographic imperatives.     

Heterochrony in plant evolutionary studies through the twentieth century

The evolution of plant morphology is the result of changes in developmental processes. Heterochrony, the evolutionary change in developmental rate or timing, is a major cause of ontogenetic modification during evolution. It is responsible for both interspecific and intraspecific morphological differences. Other causes include heterotopy, the change of structural position, and homeosis, the replacement of a structure by another. This paper discusses and reviews the role of heterochrony in plant evolution at the organismal, organ, tissue, cellular, and molecular levels, as well as the relationships among heterochrony, heterotopy, and homeosis. An attempt has been made to include all published studies through late 1999. It is likely that most heterochronic change involves more than one of the six classic pure heterochronic processes. Of these processes, we found neoteny (decreased developmental rate in descendant), progenesis (earlier offset), and acceleration (increased rate) to be more commonly reported than hypermorphosis (delayed offset) or predisplacement (earlier onset). We found no reports of postdisplacement (delayed onset). Therefore, although rate changes are common (both neoteny and acceleration), shifts in timing most commonly involve earlier termination in the descendant (progenesis). These relative frequencies may change as more kinds of structures are analyzed. Phenotypic effects of evolutionary changes in onset or offset timing can be exaggerated, suppressed, or reversed by changes in rate. Because not all developmental changes responsible for evolution result from heterochrony, however, we propose that plant evolution be studied from a viewpoint that integrates these different developmental mechanisms.     

Why the crested ibis declined in the middle twentieth century

The crested ibis (Nipponia nippon) had declined severely from a common species to only two pairs in last century. To analyze the declining process, we established a GIS database with historical occurrences of the crested ibis based on published literatures, and layers of environmental factors such as elevation, wetland, and human activities. We compared the environmental factors at the occurrence sites in different periods to quantify the changes of habitat use across time. To address the spatial deviation of the occurrences and check the effect of measuring scale on habitat use, we calculated the environmental factors in a serial measuring scales from 1 to 161 × 161 km². Our results indicated that the crested ibis traditionally lives in habitat with higher wetland density and higher human impact, then it gradually moved to areas with higher elevation and lower human impact in last century. In 1980–2000 the crested ibis stayed at a very high elevation, lower wetland density and lower human impact as possible consequences of human activities such as using fertilizer and pesticide, drying the over wintering rice paddies, and direct hunting. Our quantitative analysis of the habitat use matched well the previous published statements (which have no numerical evidences) on the declination of the crested ibis. We suggest to reestablish the habitat with traditional farming practice that the bird has adapted as a major solution for applications such as conservation planning and reintroduction.     

Water temperature behaviour in the River Danube during the twentieth century

Monthly mean water temperatures in the River Danube at Linz, Austria during the period 1901–1990 have been investigated in relation to equivalent information on air temperature and river discharge. Statistical analysis revealed a significant increase in monthly mean water temperatures of 0.8 °C and showed strongest rises in mean values for autumn and early winter months. No statistically significant trends were evident for air temperature or river discharge, and rising water temperatures are likely to reflect increasing human modification of the river system. A strong overall correlation between monthly mean water and air temperatures at Linz was made up of a series of more scattered and less steep water/air temperature relationships for individual months, while the influence of snowmelt runoff depressed average water temperatures in the spring and early summer period by 1.5 °C. Multiple regression relationships developed for individual months from data on air temperature, river discharge and time trend during the study period were able to predict monthly mean water temperatures in 1991 and 1992 with a root mean square error of 0.5 °C. These regression equations, when combined with scenarios of future changes in air temperature and river flow as a consequence of global warming, suggest that only modest rises in monthly mean water temperature will be experienced in the River Danube by the end of the present century, but that increases of > 1 °C for all months, and > 2 °C for the autumn period of low flows, can be anticipated by the year 2030.     

Plastic surgery in the early nineteenth century: notes on the collections in the University of Pavia's Museum of History

The authors present the documents of plastic surgery preserved in the University of Pavia's History of the University Museum. They include clinical papers, drawings, surgical instruments, and anatomic preparations. Most of these documents relate to the activity of Luigi Porta, who was a general and plastic surgeon and professor in the Medical School of the University of Pavia from 1832 to 1875.     

Some aspects of secular changes in Hungary over the twentieth century

Growth and maturation are considered the most reliable indicators of health status. Their progression rates in turn are strongly influenced by nutrition and socio-economic status, a well-documented relationship. The pattern of the so-called positive secular changes, i.e. the increase in size and earlier maturation, fits the populations' historical model of economic development very well. The historical, political and economic changes occurring in this century in Hungary have had a remarkably strong impact. Until World War I Hungary was an agrarian part of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, its ethnic composition was most variegated. Both World Wars caused fundamental changes, namely in respect of post-war Hungary they were associated with marked territorial losses and considerable population mobility. In interpreting the developmental differences in the data collected before and after these wars one should take account of the important facts that, in addition to the changes in socio-economic conditions, affected the gene pool of the populations in Hungary. Over the past 100 years profound changes have occurred in the mean body size, growth rate and timing of maturation of the country's population. This paper is a brief analytic summary of the tendencies observed in adult stature, maturation and some socio-economic conditions. It also compares the cohorts of sub-populations as reflected by the reviewed reports. In summarizing the change in adult stature estimated by the data on recruits, soldiers and students of higher education, it could be stated that adult mean stature had become markedly taller in Hungary since the end of the fifties. However, any estimation of the absolute increment and the exact rate is severely biased by the variable character of the samples' representativeness. Similar problems arose in dealing with sexual maturation, because the retrospective and status-quo methods of assessment were found incomparable. Nevertheless, menarche was observed to have shifted to an appreciably younger age lately, a trend that by the end of the 20th century seemed to have reached a more or less stable level.     

Changes in the skull morphology of the Arctic wolf, Canis lupus arctos, during the twentieth century

Measurements of a large series of skulls of the Arctic wolf, Canis lupus arctos . have shown that since 1930 there has been an overall reduction in the size of the skulls, together with widening of the cranium, shortening of the facial region, and reduction in size of the teeth. This suggests that hybridization and subsequent introgression occurred with huskies ( Canis familiaris ) during the 1930s, which is consistent with historical accounts. Since 1950 there has been a reversion in skull morphology to a more 'wolf-like' form, suggesting that hybridization is no longer occurring.
The skull of a wolf/dog hybrid is intermediate in size between the skulls of wolves and huskies but its shape is allometrically dissimilar. Skulls of wolves from the period 1930–50 are moi-e similar to the skull of this hybrid than in the other time periods.
The skull of a male canid from a carcass collected on Ellesmere Island and presented to the Natural History Museum. London, in 1986 was at first thought to be from a wolf/dog hybrid but analyses of the measurements show that it is more likely to be from an Arctic wolf with severe abnormalities to the jaws.     

Genetic diversity trends in twentieth century crop cultivars: a meta analysis

In recent years, an increasing number of papers has been published on the genetic diversity trends in crop cultivars released in the last century using a variety of molecular techniques. No clear general trends in diversity have emerged from these studies. Meta analytical techniques, using a study weight adapted for use with diversity indices, were applied to analyze these studies. In the meta analysis, 44 published papers were used, addressing diversity trends in released crop varieties in the twentieth century for eight different field crops, wheat being the most represented. The meta analysis demonstrated that overall in the long run no substantial reduction in the regional diversity of crop varieties released by plant breeders has taken place. A significant reduction of 6% in diversity in the 1960s as compared with the diversity in the 1950s was observed. Indications are that after the 1960s and 1970s breeders have been able to again increase the diversity in released varieties. Thus, a gradual narrowing of the genetic base of the varieties released by breeders could not be observed. Separate analyses for wheat and the group of other field crops and separate analyses on the basis of regions all showed similar trends in diversity.     

African tropical rainforest net carbon dioxide fluxes in the twentieth century

The African humid tropical biome constitutes the second largest rainforest region, significantly impacts global carbon cycling and climate, and has undergone major changes in functioning owing to climate and land-use change over the past century. We assess changes and trends in CO₂ fluxes from 1901 to 2010 using nine land surface models forced with common driving data, and depict the inter-model variability as the uncertainty in fluxes. The biome is estimated to be a natural (no disturbance) net carbon sink (−0.02 kg C m⁻² yr⁻¹ or −0.04 Pg C yr⁻¹, p < 0.05) with increasing strength fourfold in the second half of the century. The models were in close agreement on net CO₂ flux at the beginning of the century (σ₁₉₀₁ = 0.02 kg C m⁻² yr⁻¹), but diverged exponentially throughout the century (σ₂₀₁₀ = 0.03 kg C m⁻² yr⁻¹). The increasing uncertainty is due to differences in sensitivity to increasing atmospheric CO₂, but not increasing water stress, despite a decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature. However, the largest uncertainties were associated with the most extreme drought events of the century. These results highlight the need to constrain modelled CO₂ fluxes with increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and extreme climatic events, as the uncertainties will only amplify in the next century.     

Nitrogen footprint in a long-term observation of forest growth over the twentieth century

Environmental drivers of forest productivity increases have been much debated. Evidence for the suggested role of increasing nitrogen supply is lacking over long-term time scales. Tracking the footprint of environmental factors by using long-term growth records may thus prove decisive. We analysed growth chronologies of common beech in two areas of contrasting nutritional status in France. Dominant height growth was used as a proxy for productivity. Growth was compared between old and young paired stands sampled at the same sites to factor out effects of ageing and site. Growth chronologies were estimated with a statistical modelling procedure. The environmental causality of growth changes was addressed by combining (1) a comparison of growth changes between regions, (2) a regional comparison of growth chronologies with chronologies of environmental factors and (3) growth–environment relationships established from climate/soil data. Historical growth increases followed very similar courses in the two areas. Remarkably, the magnitude of change was 50% lower in the area that had reduced nutritional status and nitrogen deposition. Historical variations in environmental factors and growth were congruent with the roles of nitrogen availability and deposition, and of atmospheric CO₂ increase. Low-frequency variations in climate and growth were not coincident. However, our analysis demonstrated the role of climatic anomalies in short-term growth variations. Growth–environment relationships further indicated a nitrogen constraint. These observations corroborate the enhancing role of increased nitrogen availability on forest biomass accumulation previously reported in ecosystem experiments and process-based modelling explorations.     

Standardizing psychotropic drugs and drug practices in the twentieth century: paradox of order and disorder

According to ongoing historical research, standardizing the production and consumption of psychotropic drugs is a process fraught with contradictions and inconsistencies. Both the construction and change of drug standards can be highly unsettling events and do not necessarily lead to more order. The balance between order and disorder appears to be rather fragile and paradoxically at all stages in the evolution of standards we see order–disorder transitions.     

Carbon balances in US croplands during the last two decades of the twentieth century

Carbon (C) added to soil as organic matter in crop residues and carbon emitted to the atmosphere as CO₂ in soil respiration are key determinants of the C balance in cropland ecosystems. We used complete and comprehensive county-level yields and area data to estimate and analyze the spatial and temporal variability of regional and national scale residue C inputs, net primary productivity (NPP), and C stocks in US croplands from 1982 to 1997. Annual residue C inputs were highest in the North Central and Central and Northern Plains regions that comprise ~70% of US cropland. Average residue C inputs ranged from 1.8 (Delta States) to 3.0 (North Central region) Mg?C?ha^?1?year^?1, and average NPP ranged from 3.1 (Delta States) to 5.4 (Far West region) Mg?C?ha^?1?year^?1. Residue C inputs tended to be inversely proportional to the mean growing season temperature. A quadratic relationship incorporating the growing season mean temperature and total precipitation closely predicted the variation in residue C inputs in the North Central region and Central and Northern Plains. We analyzed the soil C balance using the crop residue database and the Introductory Carbon Balance regional Model (ICBMr). Soil C stocks (0–20?cm) on permanent cropland ranged between 3.07 and 3.1?Pg during the study period, with an average increase of ~4?Tg?C?year^?1, during the 1990s. Interannual variability in soil C stocks ranged from 0 to 20?Tg?C (across a mean C stock of 3.08?±?0.01?Pg) during the study period; interannual variability in residue C inputs varied between 1 and 43?Tg C (across a mean input of 220?±?19?Tg). Such interannual variation has implications for national estimates of CO₂ emissions from cropland soils needed for implementation of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies involving agriculture.     

Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges

We analyse distribution records for 51 British butterfly species to investigate altitudinal and latitudinal responses to twentieth century climate warming. Species with northern and/or montane distributions have disappeared from low elevation sites and colonized sites at higher elevations during the twentieth century, consistent with a climate explanation. We found no evidence for a systematic shift northwards across all species, even though 11 out of 46 southerly distributed species have expanded in the northern part of their distributions. For a subset of 35 species, we model the role of climate in limiting current European distributions and predict potential future distributions for the period 2070-2099. Most northerly distributed species will have little opportunity to expand northwards and will disappear from areas in the south, resulting in reduced range sizes. Southerly distributed species will have the potential to shift northwards, resulting in similar or increased range sizes. However, 30 out of 35 study species have failed to track recent climate changes because of lack of suitable habitat, so we revised our estimates accordingly for these species and predicted 65% and 24% declines in range sizes for northern and southern species, respectively. These revised estimates are likely to be more realistic predictions of future butterfly range sizes.