带脉冲的马尔科夫切换Hopfield神经网络随机均方稳定性

本文研究了跳跃参数带有脉冲作用的Hopfield神经网络．其中跳跃参数是时间连续状态离散的马尔科夫过程．利用Lyapunov函数的方法,在不需要对激活函数作有界性,单调性和可微性的要求的基础上,考虑系统状态受脉冲作用的情况下的随机均方稳定性的判据,用线性矩阵不等式的方式给出充分条件．     

Modelling under-reporting in epidemics

Under-reporting of infected cases is crucial for many diseases because of the bias it can introduce when making inference for the model parameters. The objective of this paper is to study the effect of under-reporting in epidemics by considering the stochastic Markovian SIR epidemic in which various reporting processes are incorporated. In particular, we first investigate the effect on the estimation process of ignoring under-reporting when it is present in an epidemic outbreak. We show that such an approach leads to under-estimation of the infection rate and the reproduction number. Secondly, by allowing for the fact that under-reporting is occurring, we develop suitable models for estimation of the epidemic parameters and explore how well the reporting rate and other model parameters can be estimated. We consider the case of a constant reporting probability and also more realistic assumptions which involve the reporting probability depending on time or the source of infection for each infected individual. Due to the incomplete nature of the data and reporting process, the Bayesian approach provides a natural modelling framework and we perform inference using data augmentation and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.     

External control in Markovian genetic regulatory networks: the imperfect information case

Probabilistic Boolean Networks, which form a subclass of Markovian Genetic Regulatory Networks, have been recently introduced as a rule-based paradigm for modeling gene regulatory networks. In an earlier paper, we introduced external control into Markovian Genetic Regulatory networks. More precisely, given a Markovian genetic regulatory network whose state transition probabilities depend on an external (control) variable, a Dynamic Programming-based procedure was developed by which one could choose the sequence of control actions that minimized a given performance index over a finite number of steps. The control algorithm of that paper, however, could be implemented only when one had perfect knowledge of the states of the Markov Chain. This paper presents a control strategy that can be implemented in the imperfect information case, and makes use of the available measurements which are assumed to be probabilistically related to the states of the underlying Markov Chain.     

Monogamy Has a Fixation Advantage Based on Fitness Variance in an Ideal Promiscuity Group

We consider an ideal promiscuity group of females, which implies that all males have the same average mating success. If females have concealed ovulation, then the males’ paternity chances are equal. We find that male-based monogamy will be fixed in females’ promiscuity group when the stochastic Darwinian selection is described by a Markov chain. We point out that in huge populations the relative advantage (difference between average fitness of different strategies) determines primarily the end of evolution; in the case of neutrality (means are equal) the smallest variance guarantees fixation (absorption) advantage; when the means and variances are the same, then the higher third moment determines which types will be fixed in the Markov chains.     

Bayesian inference for dynamic transcriptional regulation; the Hes1 system as a case study

MOTIVATION: In this study, we address the problem of estimating the parameters of regulatory networks and provide the first application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to experimental data. As a case study, we consider a stochastic model of the Hes1 system expressed in terms of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to which rigorous likelihood methods of inference can be applied. When fitting continuous-time stochastic models to discretely observed time series the lengths of the sampling intervals are important, and much of our study addresses the problem when the data are sparse. RESULTS: We estimate the parameters of an autoregulatory network providing results both for simulated and real experimental data from the Hes1 system. We develop an estimation algorithm using MCMC techniques which are flexible enough to allow for the imputation of latent data on a finer time scale and the presence of prior information about parameters which may be informed from other experiments as well as additional measurement error.     

Inference of dynamic biological networks based on responses to drug perturbations

Drugs that target specific proteins are a major paradigm in cancer research. In this article, we extend a modeling framework for drug sensitivity prediction and combination therapy design based on drug perturbation experiments. The recently proposed target inhibition map approach can infer stationary pathway models from drug perturbation experiments, but the method is limited to a steady-state snapshot of the underlying dynamical model. We consider the inverse problem of possible dynamic models that can generate the static target inhibition map model. From a deterministic viewpoint, we analyze the inference of Boolean networks that can generate the observed binarized sensitivities under different target inhibition scenarios. From a stochastic perspective, we investigate the generation of Markov chain models that satisfy the observed target inhibition sensitivities.     

Efficient parametric analysis of the chemical master equation through model order reduction

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Stochastic biochemical reaction networks are commonly modelled by the chemical master equation, and can be simulated as first order linear differential equations through a finite state projection. Due to the very high state space dimension of these equations, numerical simulations are computationally expensive. This is a particular problem for analysis tasks requiring repeated simulations for different parameter values. Such tasks are computationally expensive to the point of infeasibility with the chemical master equation. RESULTS: In this article, we apply parametric model order reduction techniques in order to construct accurate low-dimensional parametric models of the chemical master equation. These surrogate models can be used in various parametric analysis task such as identifiability analysis, parameter estimation, or sensitivity analysis. As biological examples, we consider two models for gene regulation networks, a bistable switch and a network displaying stochastic oscillations. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the parametric model reduction yields efficient models of stochastic biochemical reaction networks, and that these models can be useful for systems biology applications involving parametric analysis problems such as parameter exploration, optimization, estimation or sensitivity analysis.     

ToPS: A Framework to Manipulate Probabilistic Models of Sequence Data

Discrete Markovian models can be used to characterize patterns in sequences of values and have many applications in biological sequence analysis, including gene prediction, CpG island detection, alignment, and protein profiling. We present ToPS, a computational framework that can be used to implement different applications in bioinformatics analysis by combining eight kinds of models: (i) independent and identically distributed process; (ii) variable-length Markov chain; (iii) inhomogeneous Markov chain; (iv) hidden Markov model; (v) profile hidden Markov model; (vi) pair hidden Markov model; (vii) generalized hidden Markov model; and (viii) similarity based sequence weighting. The framework includes functionality for training, simulation and decoding of the models. Additionally, it provides two methods to help parameter setting: Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AIC and BIC). The models can be used stand-alone, combined in Bayesian classifiers, or included in more complex, multi-model, probabilistic architectures using GHMMs. In particular the framework provides a novel, flexible, implementation of decoding in GHMMs that detects when the architecture can be traversed efficiently.

This is a PLOS Computational Biology Software Article.

     

A Tutorial on Analysis and Simulation of Boolean Gene Regulatory Network Models

Driven by the desire to understand genomic functions through the interactions among genes and gene products, the research in gene regulatory networks has become a heated area in genomic signal processing. Among the most studied mathematical models are Boolean networks and probabilistic Boolean networks, which are rule-based dynamic systems. This tutorial provides an introduction to the essential concepts of these two Boolean models, and presents the up-to-date analysis and simulation methods developed for them. In the Analysis section, we will show that Boolean models are Markov chains, based on which we present a Markovian steady-state analysis on attractors, and also reveal the relationship between probabilistic Boolean networks and dynamic Bayesian networks (another popular genetic network model), again via Markov analysis; we dedicate the last subsection to structural analysis, which opens a door to other topics such as network control. The Simulation section will start from the basic tasks of creating state transition diagrams and finding attractors, proceed to the simulation of network dynamics and obtaining the steady-state distributions, and finally come to an algorithm of generating artificial Boolean networks with prescribed attractors. The contents are arranged in a roughly logical order, such that the Markov chain analysis lays the basis for the most part of Analysis section, and also prepares the readers to the topics in Simulation section.     

Markov chain models of coupled calcium channels: Kronecker representations and iterative solution methods

Mathematical models of calcium release sites derived from Markov chain models of intracellular calcium channels exhibit collective gating reminiscent of the experimentally observed phenomenon of stochastic calcium excitability (i.e., calcium puffs and sparks). Calcium release site models are stochastic automata networks that involve many functional transitions, that is, the transition probabilities of each channel depend on the local calcium concentration and thus the state of the other channels. We present a Kronecker-structured representation for calcium release site models and perform benchmark stationary distribution calculations using both exact and approximate iterative numerical solution techniques that leverage this structure. When it is possible to obtain an exact solution, response measures such as the number of channels in a particular state converge more quickly using the iterative numerical methods than occupation measures calculated via Monte Carlo simulation. In particular, multi-level methods provide excellent convergence with modest additional memory requirements for the Kronecker representation of calcium release site models. When an exact solution is not feasible, iterative approximate methods based on the power method may be used, with performance similar to Monte Carlo estimates. This suggests approximate methods with multi-level iterative engines as a promising avenue of future research for large-scale calcium release site models.     

Stochastic functional data analysis: a diffusion model-based approach

This article presents a new modeling strategy in functional data analysis. We consider the problem of estimating an unknown smooth function given functional data with noise. The unknown function is treated as the realization of a stochastic process, which is incorporated into a diffusion model. The method of smoothing spline estimation is connected to a special case of this approach. The resulting models offer great flexibility to capture the dynamic features of functional data, and allow straightforward and meaningful interpretation. The likelihood of the models is derived with Euler approximation and data augmentation. A unified Bayesian inference method is carried out via a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm including a simulation smoother. The proposed models and methods are illustrated on some prostate-specific antigen data, where we also show how the models can be used for forecasting.     

Past states of continuous-time Markov models for ecological communities

Discrete-time Markov chains are often used to model communities of sessile organisms. The community is described by a set of discrete states, which may represent species or groups of species. Transitions between states are modelled using a stochastic matrix. A recent study showed how the time-reversal of such a Markov chain can be used to estimate the distribution of time since the last occurrence of some state of interest (such as empty space) at a point, given the current state of the point. However, if the underlying process operates in continuous time but is observed at regular intervals, this distribution describes the time since the last possible observation of the state of interest, rather than the time since its last occurrence. We show how to obtain the distribution of time since the last occurrence of a state of interest for a continuous-time homogeneous Markov chain. The expected time since the last occurrence of an initial state can be interpreted as a measure of the successional rank of a state. We show how to distinguish between different ways in which a state can have high successional rank. We apply our results to a marine subtidal community.     

SnIPRE: Selection Inference Using a Poisson Random Effects Model

We present an approach for identifying genes under natural selection using polymorphism and divergence data from synonymous and non-synonymous sites within genes. A generalized linear mixed model is used to model the genome-wide variability among categories of mutations and estimate its functional consequence. We demonstrate how the model''s estimated fixed and random effects can be used to identify genes under selection. The parameter estimates from our generalized linear model can be transformed to yield population genetic parameter estimates for quantities including the average selection coefficient for new mutations at a locus, the synonymous and non-synynomous mutation rates, and species divergence times. Furthermore, our approach incorporates stochastic variation due to the evolutionary process and can be fit using standard statistical software. The model is fit in both the empirical Bayes and Bayesian settings using the lme4 package in R, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in WinBUGS. Using simulated data we compare our method to existing approaches for detecting genes under selection: the McDonald-Kreitman test, and two versions of the Poisson random field based method MKprf. Overall, we find our method universally outperforms existing methods for detecting genes subject to selection using polymorphism and divergence data.     

Neural dynamics as sampling: a model for stochastic computation in recurrent networks of spiking neurons

The organization of computations in networks of spiking neurons in the brain is still largely unknown, in particular in view of the inherently stochastic features of their firing activity and the experimentally observed trial-to-trial variability of neural systems in the brain. In principle there exists a powerful computational framework for stochastic computations, probabilistic inference by sampling, which can explain a large number of macroscopic experimental data in neuroscience and cognitive science. But it has turned out to be surprisingly difficult to create a link between these abstract models for stochastic computations and more detailed models of the dynamics of networks of spiking neurons. Here we create such a link and show that under some conditions the stochastic firing activity of networks of spiking neurons can be interpreted as probabilistic inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Since common methods for MCMC sampling in distributed systems, such as Gibbs sampling, are inconsistent with the dynamics of spiking neurons, we introduce a different approach based on non-reversible Markov chains that is able to reflect inherent temporal processes of spiking neuronal activity through a suitable choice of random variables. We propose a neural network model and show by a rigorous theoretical analysis that its neural activity implements MCMC sampling of a given distribution, both for the case of discrete and continuous time. This provides a step towards closing the gap between abstract functional models of cortical computation and more detailed models of networks of spiking neurons.     

Stage,age and individual stochasticity in demography

Demography is the study of the population consequences of the fates of individuals. Individuals are differentiated on the basis of age or, in general, life cycle stages. The movement of an individual through its life cycle is a random process, and although the eventual destination (death) is certain, the pathways taken to that destination are stochastic and will differ even between identical individuals; this is individual stochasticity. A stage‐classified demographic model contains implicit age‐specific information, which can be analyzed using Markov chain methods. The living stages in the life cycles are transient states in an absorbing Markov chain; death is an absorbing state. This paper presents Markov chain methods for computing the mean and variance of the lifetime number of visits to any transient state, the mean and variance of longevity, the net reproductive rate R₀, and the cohort generation time. It presents the matrix calculus methods needed to calculate the sensitivity and elasticity of all these indices to any life history parameters. These sensitivities have many uses, including calculation of selection gradients. It is shown that the use of R₀ as a measure of fitness or an invasion exponent gives erroneous results except when R₀=λ=1. The Markov chain approach is then generalized to variable environments (deterministic environmental sequences, periodic environments, iid random environments, Markovian environments). Variable environments are analyzed using the vec‐permutation method to create a model that classifies individuals jointly by the stage and environmental condition. Throughout, examples are presented using the North Atlantic right whale (Eubaleana glacialis) and an endangered prairie plant (Lomatium bradshawii) in a stochastic fire environment.     

Computation of identity-by-descent proportions shared by two siblings.

I provide a novel approach to computing the mean and variance of the proportion of genetic material shared identical by descent (IBD) by sibling pairs in a specified chromosomal region, conditional on observed marker data. I first show that each chromosome in an offspring can be represented by a two-state Markov chain, with the time parameter being the map distance along the chromosome. On this basis, I show that IBD proportion can be written as a stochastic integral and that the computation of its mean and variance can be reduced to evaluation of an integral of some elementary functions. In addition, I show how Goldgar's model can be extended to include dominance effects. Several examples are provided to illustrate the calculation.