Lead Us Not into Tanktation: A Simulation Modelling Approach to Gain Insights into Incentives for Sporting Teams to Tank

Annual draft systems are the principal method used by teams in major sporting leagues to recruit amateur players. These draft systems frequently take one of three forms: a lottery style draft, a weighted draft, or a reverse-order draft. Reverse-order drafts can create incentives for teams to deliberately under-perform, or tank, due to the perceived gain from obtaining quality players at higher draft picks. This paper uses a dynamic simulation model that captures the key components of a win-maximising sporting league, including the amateur player draft, draft choice error, player productivity, and between-team competition, to explore how competitive balance and incentives to under-perform vary according to league characteristics. We find reverse-order drafts can lead to some teams cycling between success and failure and to other teams being stuck in mid-ranking positions for extended periods of time. We also find that an incentive for teams to tank exists, but that this incentive decreases (i) as uncertainty in the ability to determine quality players in the draft increases, (ii) as the number of teams in the league reduces, (iii) as team size decreases, and (iv) as the number of teams adopting a tanking strategy increases. Simulation models can be used to explore complex stochastic dynamic systems such as sports leagues, where managers face difficult decisions regarding the structure of their league and the desire to maintain competitive balance.     

From Racing to Rugby: All Work and No Play for Gogodala Men of Western Province,Papua New Guinea

In this article, I analyse how Gogodala men in Western Province approach the sport of rugby league football as an extension of the practice of canoe racing. Despite colonial changes and mission attempts to redeem canoe racing by labelling them ‘cultural games’, canoe races continue to embody clan relations and demonstrate inner masculine strength, collective clan power and a local work ethic. Although there has been a general lack of attention given to studies of sport in Papua New Guinea, a discourse has emerged that analyses sports competitions as either a modern form of play and a replacement for past ritual activities or as a contemporary exemplar of warfare and other eradicated practices. As the Gogodala have not practised headhunting or warfare for over one hundred years, I want to contribute to this discussion by exploring how contemporary canoe racing and rugby league form an integral part of conceptualisations of work and dala ela gi, or ‘the male way of life’.     

Mien through sports and culture: Mobilizing minority identity in Thailand

The recent importance of sports competitions and cultural displays among highland ethnic minorities in Thailand suggests a growing resonance of national forms of sociability and presentability. A national contact zone simultaneously provides a context for unprecedented ethnic mobilization and identification among the country's minorities. Taking the case of Thailand's Mien (Yao), I explore the restructuring of social life that emerges with this ethnic mobilization for sports and culture. These activities produce an identity effect that defines Mien in national terms. The ability and need to organize in relation to the nation facilitates the position of a select few Mien villages as the bearers of social life and cultural traditions, and imports new forms of inequality into local life.     

Consuming the nation: Holidays,sports, and the production of collective belonging

The purpose of this article is to explain how Romanian and Hungarian university students in the ethnically mixed town of Cluj, Romania, experience and constitute collective national belonging at national holiday commemorations and international football competitions. Holidays and sports are important venues for the propagation of national, and sometimes nationalist, sensitivities. But neither the resurgence of nationalist politics in post-communist east Europe nor the nationalist inclinations of past generations of university students guarantee that the current generation will experience them – or themselves – in the same national terms. While much has been written about the production of holiday and sporting events, less has been said about the creative ways in which their audiences consume them. My aim in this study is to shift attention to the university students themselves and the modalities through which they constitute (and subvert) national cohesion through participation in (and avoidance of) holiday and sporting events.     

Increased aggression during human group contests when competitive ability is more similar

Theoretical analyses and empirical studies have revealed that conflict escalation is more likely when individuals are more similar in resource-holding potential (RHP). Conflicts can also occur between groups, but it is unknown whether conflicts also escalate more when groups are more similar in RHP. We tested this hypothesis in humans, using data from two professional sports competitions: football (the Bundesliga, the German first division of football) and basketball (the NBA, the North American National Basketball Association). We defined RHP based on the league ranks of the teams involved in the competition (i.e. their competitive ability) and measured conflict escalation by the number of fouls committed. We found that in both sports the number of fouls committed increased when the difference in RHP was smaller. Thus, we provide what is to our best knowledge the first evidence that, as in conflicts between individuals, conflicts escalate more when groups are more similar in RHP.     

2016 Rio Olympic Games: Can the schedule of events compromise athletes’ performance?

The organizing committee of the 2016 Rio Olympic Games recently announced that some of the preliminary and final competitions will be held at night. The present article discusses the potential harmful effects of these late-night competitions on sleep, circadian rhythms and athletic performance during the Olympic Games. Specifically, night-time competition could lead to injury and may compromise an athlete’s decision-making, attentional, physiological and other processes. Consequently, these impacts could negatively affect the performance of athletes and their teams. Thus, it is suggested that technical commissions take special care when creating strategies to minimize harm to the athletes by considering factors such as light exposure, melatonin intake, sleep hygiene and scheduled naps, and training at local competition time. Furthermore, it is necessary for specialists in chronobiology and sleep to engage with members of the national teams to develop an activity schedule for physical, technical, tactical and psychological preparation that accounts for circadian rhythms, thereby creating the best possible environment for the athletes to achieve their ideal performance.     

Parenting,Culture, and Context: Reflections on Excavating Culture

Civic competence and obstacles to its development are explored in urban youth. Our review suggests that urban youth lag behind suburban adolescents in civic knowledge and civic participation. These lags may be attributable to low levels of political participation among urban adults, educational failures, and a lack of childhood opportunities to join clubs and teams. A comparison of a small city and a neighboring suburban town illustrates both the intertwined obstacles that confront urban youth on the path to civic development and the difficulty that most urban centers face in improving opportunities for civic development. We conclude that urban youth's genuine interest in acquiring civic competence is frustrated by demographic factors largely outside the control of those living in America's cities.     

Brief communication: Admixture analysis with forensic microsatellites in Minas Gerais,Brazil: The ongoing evolution of the capital and of an African‐derived community

We report the estimated allele frequencies for 13 and 14 microsatellite loci in two populations of Minas Gerais, Brazil as follows: Belo Horizonte (the capital) and Marinhos (an African‐derived community). Analysis of the African, Amerindian, and European genetic contributions to both populations, together with historical information, revealed distinct differences between the two populations. Estimates for Belo Horizonte revealed a higher‐European (66%) than African (32%) contribution, and a minimal Amerindian contribution. These results are consistent with the peopling of the city mainly by people from the Minas Gerais hinterland, a people highly admixed but with more European ancestry. Estimates for Marinhos confirmed the high‐African component of the population. However, a temporal analysis of two datasets—CURRENT (representing the population living in Marinhos today) and ORIGINAL (representing families, who have lived in Marinhos since the onset of the 20th century),—identified a diminishing of the population's African ancestry from 92% in the ORIGINAL group to 67% in the CURRENT group. This change is here interpreted as a consequence of the growing migration into the village of people with more European ancestry and subsequent admixture with the local population. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Maori Sport and Cultural Identity in Australia

Sport is an important aspect of cultural identity for New Zealand Maori migrants living in Australia. Maori sporting endeavours, especially at festivals such as the Taki Toa Tournament in New South Wales, often reveal distinctive Maori features of cultural performance, in the rituals prior to a game, in the spirited manner with which a game is played, and in the whânau (large/extended family) spirit of belonging and celebration that is encouraged after a game. However, notwithstanding the occasional Maori tournament or festival, Maori sporting participation in Australia is not restricted to an ‘ethnic ghetto’. Widespread Maori involvement in sport has provided an important avenue for Maori migrants to mix socially with Aboriginal and other Australians in their local communities, and to gain acceptance, respect and, in some cases, economic advancement. Many first‐generation Maori migrants display a keen sense of a New Zealand rather than an Australian identity when it comes to trans‐Tasman international sport. Transnational links are also important for Australian Maori who visit New Zealand with sporting teams and stay on various marae (tribal meeting places). The experience of ‘Maori culture’ and hospitality offered by their New Zealand kinsfolk may have a significant influence upon the sporting visitors' subsequent development of Maori cultural identity.     

蜥脚类骨质尾锤之发现

自贡大山铺恐龙化石坑中出土的李氏蜀龙(Shunosaurus lii)和天府峨眉龙(Omeisaurustianfuensis)均发现由尾端脊椎愈合膨大而成之纺锤形骨质尾锤。这一特征在蜥脚类中尚属首次记述。骨质尾锤是一种适应陆地生活之特殊构造。它作为一种防御武器,主要起防卫身体的作用。它的存在说明R.T.Bakker提出的蜥脚类是一类营陆地生活的恐龙的观点是正确的。     

Competing with Lower Level Opponents Decreases Intra-Team Movement Synchronization and Time-Motion Demands during Pre-Season Soccer Matches

This study aimed to quantify the time-motion demands and intra-team movement synchronization during the pre-season matches of a professional soccer team according to the opposition level. Positional data from 20 players were captured during the first half of six pre-season matches of a Portuguese first league team. Time-motion demands were measured by the total distance covered and distance covered at different speed categories. Intra-team coordination was measured by calculating the relative phase of all pairs of outfield players. Afterwards, the percentage of time spent in the −30° to 30° bin (near-in-phase mode of coordination) was calculated for each dyad as a measure of space-time movement synchronization. Movement synchronization data were analyzed for the whole team, according to each dyad average speed and by groups of similar dyadic synchronization tendencies. Then, these data were compared according to the opponent team level (first league; second league; amateurs). Time-motion demands showed no differences in total distance covered per opposition levels, while matches opposing teams of superior level revealed more distance covered at very high intensity. Competing against superior level teams implied more time in synchronized behavior for the overall displacements and displacements at higher intensities. These findings suggest that playing against higher-level opponents (1^st league teams) increased time-motion demands at high intensities in tandem with intra-team movement synchronization tendencies.     

Globalizing forms of elite sociability: varieties of cosmopolitanism in Paris social clubs

This article examines the cultivation of transnational connections, cosmopolitanism and global class consciousness among members of elite social clubs in Paris. Drawing from interviews with members, it compares how – according to their respective characteristics – various social clubs promote different kinds of bourgeois cosmopolitanism, while rejecting the more recent internationalism of upper-middle-class service clubs such as the Rotary. Each club's peculiar ethos, practice and representations of social capital are related to the features of competing clubs through relations of mutual symbolic distinction; for example, some clubs emphasize the ‘genuineness’ of links while stigmatizing others for the accent they put on utility. The varied forms of cosmopolitanism that they promote partly replicate these logics of distinction, eliciting struggles over the authenticity or inauthenticity of transnational connections. Yet, clubs also oppose each other according to the unequal emphasis that they place on international ties per se, which creates a competing axiology within the symbolic economy of social capital accumulation.     

The ghost of Christmas past: health effects of poverty in London in 1896 and 1991

ObjectivesTo compare the extent to which late 20th century patterns of mortality in London are predicted by contemporary patterns of poverty and by late 19th century patterns of poverty. To test the hypothesis that the pattern of mortality from causes known to be related to deprivation in early life can be better predicted by the distribution of poverty in the late 19th century than by that in the late 20th century.DesignData from Charles Booth''s survey of inner London in 1896 were digitised and matched to contemporary local government wards. Ward level indices of relative poverty were derived from Booth''s survey and the 1991 UK census of population. All deaths which took place within the surveyed area between 1991 and 1995 were identified and assigned to contemporary local government wards. Standardised mortality ratios for various causes of death were calculated for each ward for all ages, under age 65, and over age 65. Simple correlation and partial correlation analysis were used to estimate the contribution of the indices of poverty from 1896 and 1991 in predicting ward level mortality ratios in the early 1990s.SettingInner London.ResultsFor many causes of death in London, measures of deprivation made around 1896 and 1991 both contributed strongly to predicting the current spatial distribution. Contemporary mortality from diseases which are known to be related to deprivation in early life (stomach cancer, stroke, lung cancer) is predicted more strongly by the distribution of poverty in 1896 than that in 1991. In addition, all cause mortality among people aged over 65 was slightly more strongly related to the geography of poverty in the late 19th century than to its contemporary distribution.ConclusionsContemporary patterns of some diseases have their roots in the past. The fundamental relation between spatial patterns of social deprivation and spatial patterns of mortality is so robust that a century of change in inner London has failed to disrupt it.     

Functional training status of soccer players from leading Russian teams

The maximum aerobic power and aerobic efficiency (anaerobic threshold) have been determined in major league soccer players. The aerobic capacity of soccer players from leading Russian teams is substantially lower than that of players from leading European teams.     

Palliative care: views of patients and their families.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the current problems and needs of terminally ill cancer patients and their family members, and to discover their views of hospital, community, and support team services. DESIGN--Prospective study of patients and families by questionnaire interviews in the patients'' homes. SETTING--Inner London and north Kent (London suburbs). SUBJECTS--65 Patients, each with a member of their family or a career. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Ratings of eight current problems and ratings and comments on three services-hospital doctors and nurses, general practitioners and district nurses, and the support team staff-obtained after a minimum of two weeks'' care from palliative care support teams. RESULTS--Effect of anxiety on the patient''s nearest career. and symptom control were rated as the most severe current problems by both patients and families; a few patients and families identified other severe problems. Families'' ratings of pain control, symptom control, and effect of anxiety on the patient were significantly worse than the patients'' ratings (p less than 0.05). Support teams received the most praise, being rated by 58 (89%) patients and 59 (91%) of family members as good as excellent. General practitioners and district nurses were rated good or excellent by 46 (71%) patients and 46 (71%) family members, but six (9%) in each group rated the service as poor or very bad, and ratings in the inner London district were significantly worse than those in the outer London district. Hospital doctors and nurses were rated good or excellent by 22 (34%) patients and 35 (54%) of family members, and 14 (22%) patients and 15 (23%) family members rated this service as poor or very bad. Negative comments referred to communication (especially at diagnosis), coordination of services, the attitude of the doctor, delays in diagnosis, and difficulties in getting doctors to visit at home. Family members were more satisfied with the services than were patients. CONCLUSIONS--Palliative care needs to include both the patient and family because the needs of the family may exceed those of the patient. Support teams and some hospital and community doctors and nurses met the perceived needs of dying patients and families, but better education and organisation of services are needed.     

The sweet spot of a biological hammer: the centre of percussion of glyptodont (Mammalia: Xenarthra) tail clubs

The importance of the centre of percussion (CP) of some hand-held sporting equipment (such as tennis rackets and baseball bats) for athletic performance is well known. In order to avoid injuries it is important that powerful blows are located close to the CP. Several species of glyptodont (giant armoured mammals) had tail clubs that can be modelled as rigid beams (like baseball bats) and it is generally assumed that these were useful for agonistic behaviour. However, the variation in tail club morphology among known genera suggests that a biomechanical and functional analysis of these structures could be useful. Here, we outline a novel method to determine the CP of the glyptodont tail clubs. We find that the largest species had the CP very close to the possible location of horny spikes. This is consistent with the inference that they were adapted to delivering powerful blows at that point. Our new analysis reinforces the case for agonistic use of tail clubs in several glyptodont species.     

Hormonal responses differ when playing violent video games against an ingroup and outgroup

For 14 teams of three young men, salivary testosterone and cortisol were assessed twice before and twice after competing in within-group and between-group video games that simulated violent male–male competition. Men who contributed the most to their teams' between-group victory showed testosterone increases immediately after the competition, but only if this competition was played before the within-group tournament. High-scoring men on losing teams did not show this immediate effect, but they did show a delayed increase in testosterone. In contrast, high-ranking men tended to have lower testosterone and higher cortisol during within-group tournaments. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that men's competitive testosterone response varies across ingroup and outgroup competitions and is muted during the former. The testosterone response during the between-group competition also suggests that violent multiplayer video games may be appealing to young men because they simulate male–male coalitional competition.     

Influence of field size on the physiological and skill demands of small-sided games in junior and senior rugby league players

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of changes in field size on the physiological and skill demands of small-sided games in elite junior and senior rugby league players. Sixteen elite senior rugby league players ([mean ± SE] age, 23.6 ± 0.5 years) and 16 elite junior rugby league players ([mean ± SE] age, 17.3 ± 0.3 years) participated in this study. On day 1, 2 teams played an 8-minute small-sided game on a small field (10-m width × 40-m length), whereas the remaining 2 teams played the small-sided game on a larger sized field (40-m width × 70-m length). On day 2, the groups were crossed over. Movement was recorded by a global positioning system unit sampling at 5 Hz. Games were filmed to count the number of possessions and the number and quality of disposals. The games played on a larger field resulted in a greater (p < 0.05) total distance covered, and distances covered in moderate, high, and very-high velocity movement intensities. Senior players covered more distance at moderate, high, and very-high intensities, and less distance at low and very-low intensities during small-sided games than junior players. Although increasing field size had no significant influence (p > 0.05) over the duration of recovery periods for junior players, larger field size significantly reduced (p < 0.05) the amount of short-, moderate-, and long-duration recovery periods in senior players. No significant between-group differences (p > 0.05) were detected for games played on a small or large field for the number or quality of skill involvements. These results suggest that increases in field size serve to increase the physiological demands of small-sided games but have minimal influence over the volume or quality of skill executions in elite rugby league players.     

沈阳近郊和远郊的热岛特征及其与城市化的关系

基于气温数据,对1961-2008年沈阳近郊和远郊热岛强度的月、年和年代际动态变化及其与城市化的关系进行研究.结果表明：沈阳近郊的月热岛强度和年热岛强度均高于远郊,即从近郊到远郊,热岛强度呈减小趋势.近郊和远郊热岛强度的变化趋势在3-11月较为一致,12月至翌年2月相反,这可能与冬季取暖有关.近郊和远郊的年热岛强度在2000年前呈上升趋势,2000年后呈下降趋势.年热岛强度与城市绿地面积、人口数量和建成区面积在2000年前呈显著的正相关（P<0.05）,2000年后呈显著的负相关（P<0.05）;三者与年热岛强度的关联度分别为0.43、0.52和0.26.     

Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th‐century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st‐century climate change constitutes a new—but so far unevaluated—threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high‐resolution topography and fine‐scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso‐ and microclimate scales. We show that climate‐only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th‐century destruction is evident—more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation—and 21st‐century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.