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1.
The physical and chemical processes operating in the River Tamar Estuary (south-west England) have been comprehensively described and reported in the literature. There are well-established gradients of salinity, suspended sediment and oxygen which vary both on short-term (tidal) and long-term (seasonal) cycles. Freshwater runoff, the main factor determining salinity distribution, is also the cause of the high variability in suspended sediment concentrations. The biological processes are less well studied and information on the link between the benthic and pelagic systems is particularly lacking. Mysids, through their role as detritivores and as a major component in the diet of some fish, provide this link. Of the four species of mysid distributed longitudinally in the Tamar Estuary, the most abundant isMesopodopsis slabberi which occurs between 5 and 25 km from the estuary head. Observations over an annual cycle have shown marked seasonal changes in both abundance and distribution in the estuary. During winter and spring, densities remained generally low (<50 m−3) but, as water temperatures increased, the density increased and reachedca 1200 individuals m−3 in July. There was a shift in the longitudinal distribution ofM. slabberi in response to changes in the position of the salinity gradient. Adults comprised the majority of the population in salinities less than 10‰ whereas juveniles and immature animals were distributed over a wider area than the adults and occurred in water of higher salinity than the main adult distribution.M. slabberi appears to utilise the two-layered estuarine circulation to maintain its position in the estuary.  相似文献   

2.
In the present study the induction of metallothioneins (MTs) and effects on the cellular energy allocation (CEA) in euryhaline crustacean Neomysis integer exposed to Cd at different salinities were studied. N. integer was exposed to the same sub-lethal concentration of free cadmium ion (1/5 of the cadmium activity of the reported 96 h LC50 value) in hypo-osmotic (7.2 μg Cd/L at 5 psu), isosmotic (23.0 μg Cd/L at 16 psu) and hyper-osmotic media (38.1 μg Cd/L at 25 psu) for 7 days. By using the free Cd concentration as the basis for conducting the exposures, the effect of salinity on cadmium speciation was eliminated and therefore the true effect of salinity as an abiotic factor on the MT induction and CEA could be studied.MT content was quantified by differential pulse voltammetry (DPV); this is the first time that this method is applied to assays with N. integer. No significant differences in MT levels between the control and Cd-exposed groups were observed. The measured MT levels (ranging from 32.3 to 75.7 μg/mg(cytosolic protein)) probably represent the constitutive MT levels responsible for binding essential metals. The differences in MT levels observed at the different salinities indicate a possible relationship between some physiological process (possibly osmoregulation) other than detoxification and MT induction. A decrease in salinity caused an increase in MT level in N. integer, and this was significantly correlated to the CEA values (Spearman correlation coefficient r = − 0.56, p = 0.016). Our results indicate that salinity can change the energy status and MT content of N. integer. These findings should be taken into account when using these biomarkers - and especially MTs - in field studies and environmental monitoring.  相似文献   

3.
Community structure is shaped by external factors (i.e., habitat, temperature, and food) frequently modified by interactions among its members. This study focusses on trophic interactions between two sympatric mysids Praunus flexuosus and Neomysis integer of the Elbe Estuary, northern Germany. Based on an experimental approach, intraguild predation was evaluated. Predation rate of P. flexuosus on N. integer was positively related to predator size and temperature. Predation rate was significantly correlated with prey size, juvenile N. integer released just from the mysid marsupium being most vulnerable. However, adult P. flexuosus were able to gain more energy in terms of body carbon by catching larger N. integer, whereas immature P. flexuosus assimilated more energy by capturing large numbers of the small-sized N. integer. In contrast to N. integer, P. flexuosus showed an efficient escape behaviour that prevented all stages of N. integer from preying on any size class of P. flexuosus. When Eurytemora affinis was offered as prey, both N. integer and P. flexuosus increased predation rates with predator size and temperature. In mixed prey (N. integer and E. affinis) experiments at 10 °C, predation rates of adult P. flexuosus on N. integer released just from the marsupium declined from 17±8 to 6±4 N. integer mysid−1 day−1. We conclude that intraguild predation exists between the two species but is one sided with small N. integer being strongly suppressed. This heavy predation pressure is modified by the addition of alternative food resources, in this case, E. affinis.  相似文献   

4.
Invertebrates account for roughly 95% of all animals, yet surprisingly, little effort has been invested to understand their value in signaling potential environmental endocrine disruption. There has been, however, much recent attention on vitellogenin induction in egg-laying invertebrates and vertebrates as indicators of exposure to estrogenic xenobiotics. Mysid shrimp (Crustacea: Mysidacea) have been put forward by several researchers and regulatory bodies (e.g., US-EPA) as suitable test organisms for the evaluation of environmental endocrine disruption. In view of developing sensitive assays to study endocrine disruption in the estuarine mysid Neomysis integer, we isolated and characterized vitellin, the major yolk protein in eggs. Vitellin was purified using gel filtration and characterized by electrophoresis using different staining procedures. Specific (as shown by Western blotting) polyclonal antibodies were produced in rabbit against the purified vitellin of N. integer. These antisera will be used to develop immunoassays to study vitellogenesis in mysids and to detect potential stimulatory or inhibitory effects of endocrine disruptors on the production of vitellin.  相似文献   

5.
Mesopodopsis africana is an important mysid in southern African coastal zooplankton and a key species in the St Lucia estuarine lake, which is currently undergoing severe desiccation owing to freshwater deprivation. M. africana populations through much of the system are consequently under severe environmental stress. This study investigates the grazing dynamics of this mysid species, in relation to autotrophic food availability and other environmental constraints in two contrasting areas of the St Lucia Estuary, Charters Creek, heavily affected by the desiccation process and the Mouth, virtually under unchanged conditions. Gut evacuation experiments were conducted once each during the day and the night. Evacuation rates were consistently higher during the night, ranging from 0.27 to 0.33 h-1 at Charters Creek and from 1.13 to 1.24 h-1 at the Mouth. Ingestion rates were, therefore, higher at the Mouth resulting in population grazing impacts of 2.5% of the total microalgal biomass, while the grazing impact at Charters Creek was only 0.5%. The spatial variation in ingestion rates could be attributed to seasonal differences in gut evacuation rates, differences in the mean size of mysids used, or the physicochemical conditions present at the two stations. It is suggested that mysid populations at Charters Creek are predominantly driven by bottom-up forces, initiated by the harsh environmental conditions. Despite the lower ingestion rates exhibited at Charters Creek, results indicate that these mysids are capable of meeting all their energetic requirements from a microalgal diet alone, although they may also utilise a heterotrophic diet.  相似文献   

6.
The predation potential of littoral mysid shrimps (Mysidacea) on Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) eggs and yolk-sac larvae was studied experimentally. The results showed that littoral mysids feed actively on both eggs and yolk-sac larvae. It was shown that Neomysis integer preys on eggs, which are not attached to the substrate. Alternative food (yolk-sac larvae or zooplankton) did not decrease feeding rate on eggs. Only gravel as a bottom material lowered the ingestion rate to nearly zero. The largest of the mysid species Praunus flexuosus ate yolk-sac larvae more than other mysids and most efficiently. Mysids switched to feed on eggs when larvae and eggs were offered simultaneously, thus predation focused on eggs. It is possible that hydrodynamic signals of moving larvae induced mysids to prey and eggs were easier prey to catch as well as more numerous. In addition egg size is optimal and the nutritive value (measured as C:N ratio) is better compared with larvae. The results indicate that mysids may have local effects on populations of Baltic herring by eating the early life stages, mostly eggs. Especially when large swarms of N. integer shoal in the spawning areas. However, the effect on recruitment of herring is still hard to evaluate.  相似文献   

7.
The seasonal and spatial patterns in cellular energy allocation of the estuarine mysid Neomysis integer (Leach, 1814) were investigated in the Scheldt estuary over a 2-year period. Using the recently developed cellular energy allocation (CEA) assay, energy reserves (protein, lipid and sugar) and energy consumption (as derived from the cellular respiration rate) were integrated into a general indicator of physiological stress. Total energy reserves were relatively unaffected by sampling season or location, whereas the individual energy reserve fractions of N. integer were differentially influenced by sampling location and season. Seasonal effects were apparent for mysid weight and were related to the population biology, whereas spatial effects on the weight of N. integer may depend on pollution-induced effects on cellular energy allocation in the two most upstream sites (Bath and Doel). These upstream sites coincide with the most polluted part of the sampled area and were characterized by a significant increase in energy consumption, resulting in a significantly lower CEA. Due to the recent amelioration in the oxygen concentration at these sites, it can be expected that N. integer will migrate further upstream, similar to what is observed in other European estuaries. It will, therefore, be important to assess the physiological consequences and potential population effects on mysids from these polluted areas in the Scheldt estuary. This study provides evidence that the CEA assay has potential under field conditions as an in situ biomarker of pollutant effects.  相似文献   

8.
Recently, we described the cellular energy allocation (CEA) methodology to asses the effects of abiotic stress on the energy metabolism of the estuarine crustacean Neomysis integer (Crustacea: Mysidacea) [J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 279 (2002) 61]. This short-term assay is based on the biochemical assessment of changes in the energy reserves (total carbohydrate, protein and lipid content) and the energy consumption (electron transport activity), and has been shown to be predictive of effects at the population level in daphnids [J. Aquat. Ecosyst. Stress Recovery 6 (1997) 43]. In the present study, the CEA methodology was evaluated using adult N. integer exposed for 96 h to the antifoulant tributyltinchloride (TBTCl). From a range-finding experiment with juvenile N. integer, a 96-h LC50 of 164 ng TBTCl/l was calculated. The energy metabolism of N. integer, as summarized by the CEA, was significantly altered by TBTCl exposure. Mysids exposed to 10, 100 and 1000 ng TBTCl/l consumed less energy and had lower respiration rates (in 10 and 1000 ng TBTCl/l treatments) than the control, resulting in a lower CEA. These changes at the cellular level occurred at environmentally relevant concentrations of the toxicant TBTCl which were an order of magnitude lower than reported effect concentrations for scope for growth in other marine invertebrates.  相似文献   

9.
Habitat use in marine invertebrates is often influenced by multiple abiotic and biotic factors. Substratum composition is one factor known to have a dramatic effect on habitat selection. The Australasian burrowing isopod (Sphaeroma quoianum, H. Milne Edwards 1840) is a common introduced species in many estuaries on the Pacific coast of North America. S. quoianum burrows into a variety of firm substrata including marsh banks (composed of peat, clay, and/or mud), wood, friable rock, and Styrofoam floats. In some areas, isopods achieve high densities and may accelerate the rate of shoreline erosion and damage marine structures; thus, understanding the substratum preference of this species may be important for conservation and management efforts. Field experiments were conducted in Coos Bay, Oregon to examine substratum preference, burrowing rates, and the life stage of colonizers. In three experimental trials (Fall 2005, Spring 2006, Fall 2006), replicates of four intertidal substrata (marsh banks, decayed wood, sandstone, Styrofoam) were deployed near intertidal populations of S. quoianum. The numbers of burrows created in each substratum were enumerated weekly or daily (depending on trial). After the trials were completed, the total numbers of isopods inhabiting each substratum were counted. In weeks, S. quoianum extensively burrowed the substrata but exhibited a distinct preference for decayed wood. Significantly more isopods were present in wood than the other substrata at the end of the experiments and rates of burrowing were greatest in wood, although significance varied across time in one trial. Nearly 90% of colonizing isopods were under 5 mm in length suggesting that juvenile isopods primarily colonize intertidal substrata. Differences between burrow densities measured in the field and the results from these preference trials may indicate other factors, such as relative availability of substrata, recruitment and dispersal limitations, and possible gregarious behavior also influence local isopod densities.  相似文献   

10.
The mysid shrimp Neomysis integer is a common invertebrate predator in brackish waters of Western Europe and is thought to play a central role in the food web owing to its predation on zooplankton. Neomysis distribution and abundance were investigated for 3 years in brackish, shallow and hypertrophic Lake Ferring (surface area: 3.2 km2, mean depth: 1.4 m, salinity: 3–6, total P: 0.29–0.78 mg P l-1, Secchi depth: 0.14–0.22 m). Mean summer abundance of Neomysis varied from 53 to 882 ind. m-2. Neomysis density within the lake was relatively uniform and not related to sediment type, but increased with increasing depth. The high abundance of Neomysis is considered to reflect a fish stock almost completely dominated by small-sized fish species (mainly three-spined stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus). Three-spined stickleback density was high and catch per unit effort ranged between 30 and 80 per gill net. Stomach analyses showed that the sticklebacks preyed on Neomysis, but preferred specimens smaller than 3–4 mm, and only occasionally consumed those larger than 5–7 mm. In summer, between 33 and 67% of the Neomysis ingested by sticklebacks were smaller than 3 mm, while in the lake as a whole, only 5–14% were smaller than 3 mm. The periods when Neomysis is vulnerable to stickleback predation are restricted to a few weeks in late May and late July, when the new generations emerge. Sticklebacks therefore have a limited capacity for controlling large Neomysis, including gravid females.  相似文献   

11.
Ecdysteroids, the molting hormones in crustaceans and other arthropods, play a crucial role in the control of growth, reproduction and embryogenesis of these organisms. Insecticides are often designed to target specific endocrine-regulated functions such as molting and larval development such as methoprene, a juvenile hormone analogue.The aim of this study was to examine the effects of methoprene on molting in a non-target species, the estuarine mysid Neomysis integer (Crustacea: Mysidacea). Mysids have been proposed as standard test organisms for evaluating the endocrine disruptive effect of chemicals. Juveniles (< 24 h) were exposed for 3 weeks to the nominal concentrations 0.01, 1 and 100 μg methoprene/l. Daily, present molts were checked and stored in 4% formaldehyde for subsequent growth measurements. Methoprene significantly delayed molting at 100 μg/l by decreasing the growth rate and increasing the intermolt period. This resulted in a decreased wet weight of the organism. The anti-ecdysteroidal properties of methoprene on mysid molting were also evaluated by determining the ability of exogenously administered 20-hydroxyecdysone, the active ecdysteroid in crustaceans, to protect against the observed methoprene effects. Co-exposure to 20-hydroxyecdysone did not mitigate methoprene effects on mysid molting. This study demonstrates the need for incorporating invertebrate-specific hormone-regulated endpoints in regulatory screening and testing programs for the detection of endocrine disruption caused by man-made chemicals.  相似文献   

12.
Planktonic larvae of estuarine crabs are commonly exported to the continental shelf for development and then return to coastal and estuarine areas as postlarvae (megalopae). Megalopae returning to estuaries must be adapted to survive in brackish water whereas those of coastally distributed species should not need such adaptations. We investigated 1) whether megalopae of the estuarine crab Callinectes sapidus and the coastal crab Callinectes similis undergo changes in salinity tolerance upon entry into an estuary and 2) what factors induce those changes. Megalopae were collected at a coastal site and a nearby estuarine site and exposed to a range of salinities (5, 10, 15, 20 and 30) for 6 h. Percent survival was determined after 24 h reintroduction to the collection site water. We also investigated 1) whether increased salinity tolerance was induced by reduced salinity or estuarine chemical cues, 2) the time to acclimation and 3) the salinity necessary for acclimation. C. sapidus megalopae from the estuarine site were more likely to survive exposure to low salinities than those from the coastal site. C. sapidus megalopae from the coastal site exhibited increased survival after acclimation to salinities of 27 and 23 for 12 h. Estuarine chemical cues had no effect on salinity tolerance. C. similis megalopae were less likely to survive at low salinities and did not exhibit an acclimation response upon exposure to reduced salinities. These results suggest that megalopae of C. sapidus are physiologically adapted to recruit to estuaries whereas megalopae of C. similis are unable to acclimate to low salinity conditions.  相似文献   

13.
The effect of macroalgal blooms and the consequent disappearance of Zostera noltii meadows on Hydrobia ulvae population dynamics and production was studied in the Mondego estuary based on data obtained from January 1993 to September 1995. Sampling was carried out at a non-eutrophicated area, covered with Z. noltii, and also at an eutrophicated area, where seasonal Enteromorpha spp. blooms occur.Stable populations represented by individuals of all age classes were found only at the Z. noltii meadows throughout the study period. On the contrary, at the eutrophicated area, during most of the time, solely juveniles were present, with adults appearing only during the macroalgal bloom (>1.5 mm width).During the algal bloom (e.g. 1993), H. ulvae population density was clearly higher in the eutrophicated area due to the combined effect of stronger benthic recruitments (99% of veliger larvae newly recruited) and dispersion of juveniles proceeding from the Z. noltii meadows to this area. On the other hand, in the absence of macroalgae (spring of 1994), 98.9% of veliger larvae was recruited in the Z. noltii meadows. Therefore, H. ulvae seems to respond rapidly to macroalgal dynamics and its presence at the eutrophicated area depends on the existence of green macroalgae.H. ulvae presented the same benthic recruitment pattern at the two sampling areas, with new cohorts being produced in March, June, July and September. Depending on the time of the year in which the recruitment took place, cohorts showed different growth rhythms. However, after 12 months they reached a similar size.A three-generation life cycle involving a short-lived (16 months), fast growing spring generation, a medium growing (17-19 months) summer generation and a longer-lived (20 months) slower growing generation that overwinters is identified.As a general trend, productivity and mean population standing biomass were higher at the Z. noltii meadows, during the entire study, except for a short period, during the macroalgal bloom, when production was higher at the eutrophicated area. On the contrary, P/B? ratios were higher at the eutrophicated area. According to our results, H. ulvae population structure and yearly productivity are clearly affected by eutrophication, namely by the dynamics of macroalgal blooms.In the long run, we may infer that, following the disappearance of the Z. noltii meadows, due to eutrophication, H. ulvae would also tend to disappear, since reproductive adults were almost exclusively found in this area.  相似文献   

14.
Mesopodopsis africana is an abundant zooplankton species in the currently drought stricken St. Lucia Estuary. The estuary is freshwater-starved, partly because its connection with the large Mfolozi catchment has been discontinued. This is due to the extremely high silt load carried by its waters. A series of in vitro experiments were conducted in May, July, August and December 2006, in order to determine the effect of silt loading on the feeding rate and mortality of M. africana. Mysids were subjected to different sediment concentrations in controlled experiments for a 12-hour period. The turbidity regimes were generated by adding pre-weighed silt concentrations, ranging from 0.03 g/L to 13 g/L, to natural estuarine water. Results in all cases showed a major effect of high silt levels upon food availability, as water chlorophyll losses increased with increased silt concentration. Hindrance in the food collecting abilities appears to have a compounding influence as on two occasions, May and August, ingestion rates decreased with an increase in silt concentration. However, in July, mysid ingestion and clearance rates were higher under increased suspended silt concentrations. In such cases, mysids may be clearing more water under conditions of low food concentration, or alternatively, they may switch to feeding on metazoan prey. In the December experiment, there was no relationship between ingestion rate and silt concentration, possibly because food supplies were sufficient to sustain constant ingestion rates or because mysids increased their clearance rates in the more turbid treatments to compensate for any negative effects of silt. Mysid health also declined, with the mean percentage of survivors decreasing consistently with an increase in silt concentration. Results indicate that the overall effect of increased silt load is negative, and subsequently, increased silt loading in the St. Lucia estuary is expected to have detrimental effects on communities of mysids within the estuary.  相似文献   

15.
The salinity, temperature and pH tolerance of Procephalothrix simulus Iwata, 1952, were experimentally studied. In hypo-media, the nemerteans could survive 96 h in 3.3‰ solution at 10 °C (median lethal salinity [LS50] was not determined at this temperature), and 96 h LS50 were 7.3‰ and 13.5‰ at 20 °C and 30 °C, respectively. In hyper-media, 96 h LS50 values were 53.9‰, 47.1‰ and 41.4‰ at 10 °C, 20 °C and 30 °C, respectively. The trend of body weight changes in diluted media indicated that this nemertean is a volume regulator. During a 96-h exposure in media at 0 °C, worms were thanatoid but could recover if the temperature was gradually elevated to 20 °C. In thermal tolerance experiments, the nemertean survived 96 h in seawater of 30 °C, and worms suffered high mortalities when the temperature exceeded 32 °C. Present results suggest that the interaction of temperature and salinity on the lethal effects on P. simulus is significant (P < 0.05). Elevated temperature (range 10-30 °C) decreased the worm's solute tolerance, and elevated salinity (range 18-38‰) decreased the worm's thermal tolerance. The survival pH level for this nemertean ranged from 5.00 to 9.20.  相似文献   

16.
This study aimed to (1) assess the present depth distribution of Fucus vesiculosus in the Baltic Sea and evaluate differences between districts and (2) assess long-term and recent changes in depth distribution and evaluate reasons for such changes. This was done through compilation and analysis of existing data (3356 obs.). Depth limits were shallowest in the Kattegat, the Danish Belts and the Øresund (∼1.5 m on average), located at the entrance of the Baltic Sea and markedly deeper in the central and inner parts of the Baltic (up to ∼4.5 m on average). This increase in depth limits to some extent matched the decline in salinity and may in part be explained by reduced competition when species diversity decreases successively along the Baltic salinity gradient. In the central and inner Baltic Sea, Secchi depths explained part of the variation (16%) in depth limits and the majority (85%) of the variation in maximum attainable depth limits whereas at the entrance of the Baltic Secchi depths explained a negligible part of the variation (∼1%). In most districts, depth limits moved upwards during the 20th century. In many cases this happened during or shortly after the 1960s/1970s, and was most likely due to eutrophication.  相似文献   

17.
18.
Habitat heterogeneity often affects movement behaviours of animals, and consequently their spatial distribution. We evaluated the effect of immersion at low tide on the distribution, fine-scale movement patterns and daily movement patterns of the mud snail Ilyanassa obsoleta on a mudflat in the upper Bay of Fundy, Canada. Mud snails migrate onto intertidal mudflats in the summer, and our field survey showed that their density was higher inside tide pools relative to adjacent areas that are exposed at low tide. Using time-lapse videography, we evaluated the effect of snail size, snail density, and immersion at low tide on fine-scale movement patterns of I. obsoleta. Time until snails stopped moving and burrowed was unaffected by snail size, but snails at low and high densities burrowed somewhat faster than those at intermediate densities. Snail size and snail density had no detectable effect on displacement speed or linearity of displacement. Immersion affected snail movement: snails within tide pools delayed burrowing and traveled in more convoluted paths compared to those on exposed mud. Snails increased their turning angles within tide pools, which is probably the mechanism by which aggregations are formed. We also performed a mark-recapture experiment to compare daily movement patterns of snails released inside and outside tide pools. Snails released in tide pools moved shorter distances, but did not orient themselves differently than snails released outside tide pools. Both groups exhibited significant directionality, moving against the mean water current direction over 24 h. In sum, immersion at low tide affected the behaviour and spatial distribution of snails, resulting in snail aggregations within tide pools. These snail aggregations, in turn, may be a major factor influencing spatial dynamics on mudflats, including causing changes in distribution patterns of the burrowing amphipod Corophium volutator, a dominant inhabitant and key species in the food web of mudflats.  相似文献   

19.
This study compares the fish assemblages in a range of intertidal salt marsh creeks in the Kariega Estuary, South Africa, as well as highlighting any differences between the ichthyofaunal structure of the creeks and adjacent Zostera bed habitats. The superimposition of environmental variables on the creek biotic groupings (60% similarity level) indicated consistent relationships between both the creek water depth and mouth area with the major creek fish clusters. Water temperature, salinity and turbidity did not display any pattern which could explain the disparity between the ichthyofaunal groupings. The results also indicated that intertidal creeks form a unique littoral habitat within the Kariega Estuary, with ichthyofaunal compositions very different to those found in nearby eelgrass beds. Furthermore, intertidal creeks in the Kariega system appear to be similar to creeks found elsewhere in the world in that their fish assemblages are dominated by 0+ juveniles, have a conspicuous marine transient and estuarine resident component, and very few piscivorous representatives. These results also give weight to the hypothesis that southern African salt marsh creek habitats serve as temporary refuges to juvenile fishes, a role that has also been proposed in other parts of the world.  相似文献   

20.
Fasciolosis caused by Fasciola hepatica is a major cause of economic loss to the agricultural community worldwide as a result of morbidity and mortality in livestock. Spatial models developed with the aid of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be used to develop risk maps for fasciolosis for use in the formulation of disease control programmes. Here we investigate the spatial epidemiology of F. hepatica in dairy herds in England and Wales and develop linear regression models to explain observed patterns of exposure at a small spatial unit, the postcode area. Exposure data used for the analysis were taken from an earlier study of F. hepatica infection, performed in the winter of 2006/7. Climatic, environmental, soil, livestock and pasture variables were considered as potential predictors. The performance of models that used climate variables for 5 years average data, contemporary data and a combination of both for England and Wales, and for England only, was compared. All models explained over 70% of the variation in the prevalence of exposure. The best performing models were those built using 5 year average and contemporary weather data. However, the fit of these models was only slightly better than the fit of models using weather data from one time period only. Rainfall was a consistent predictor in all models. Other model covariates included temperature, the negative predictors of soil pH and slope and the positive predictors of poor quality land, as determined by the Agricultural Land Classification, and very fine sand content of soil. Choroplethic risk maps showed a good match between the observed F. hepatica exposure values and exposure values fitted by the models. The development of these detailed spatial models is the first step towards the development of a spatially specific, temporal forecasting system for liver fluke in the United Kingdom.  相似文献   

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