The Impact of Hotspot-Targeted Interventions on Malaria Transmission in Rachuonyo South District in the Western Kenyan Highlands: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial

BackgroundMalaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, generating malaria hotspots that can fuel malaria transmission across a wider area. Targeting hotspots may represent an efficacious strategy for reducing malaria transmission. We determined the impact of interventions targeted to serologically defined malaria hotspots on malaria transmission both inside hotspots and in surrounding communities.ConclusionsDespite high coverage, the impact of interventions targeting malaria vectors and human infections on nPCR parasite prevalence was modest, transient, and restricted to the targeted hotspot areas. Our findings suggest that transmission may not primarily occur from hotspots to the surrounding areas and that areas with highly heterogeneous but widespread malaria transmission may currently benefit most from an untargeted community-wide approach. Hotspot-targeted approaches may have more validity in settings where human settlement is more nuclear.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01575613","term_id":"NCT01575613"}}NCT01575613     

Detecting Foci of Malaria Transmission with School Surveys: A Pilot Study in the Gambia

Background

In areas of declining malaria transmission such as in The Gambia, the identification of malaria infected individuals becomes increasingly harder. School surveys may be used to identify foci of malaria transmission in the community.

Methods

The survey was carried out in May–June 2011, before the beginning of the malaria transmission season. Thirty two schools in the Upper River Region of The Gambia were selected with probability proportional to size; in each school approximately 100 children were randomly chosen for inclusion in the study. Each child had a finger prick blood sample collected for the determination of antimalarial antibodies by ELISA, malaria infection by microscopy and PCR, and for haemoglobin measurement. In addition, a simple questionnaire on socio-demographic variables and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets was completed. The cut-off for positivity for antimalarial antibodies was obtained using finite mixture models. The clustered nature of the data was taken into account in the analyses.

Results

A total of 3,277 children were included in the survey. The mean age was 10 years (SD = 2.7) [range 4–21], with males and females evenly distributed. The prevalence of malaria infection as determined by PCR was 13.6% (426/3124) [95% CI = 12.2–16.3] with marked variation between schools (range 3–25%, p<0.001), while the seroprevalence was 7.8% (234/2994) [95%CI = 6.4–9.8] for MSP1₁₉, 11.6% (364/2997) [95%CI = 9.4–14.5] for MSP2, and 20.0% (593/2973) [95% CI = 16.5–23.2) for AMA1. The prevalence of all the three antimalarial antibodies positive was 2.7% (79/2920).

Conclusions

This survey shows that malaria prevalence and seroprevalence before the transmission season were highly heterogeneous.     

Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Malaria Control Interventions in the Highlands of Western Kenya

Introduction

Tools that allow for in silico optimization of available malaria control strategies can assist the decision-making process for prioritizing interventions. The OpenMalaria stochastic simulation modeling platform can be applied to simulate the impact of interventions singly and in combination as implemented in Rachuonyo South District, western Kenya, to support this goal.

Methods

Combinations of malaria interventions were simulated using a previously-published, validated model of malaria epidemiology and control in the study area. An economic model of the costs of case management and malaria control interventions in Kenya was applied to simulation results and cost-effectiveness of each intervention combination compared to the corresponding simulated outputs of a scenario without interventions. Uncertainty was evaluated by varying health system and intervention delivery parameters.

Results

The intervention strategy with the greatest simulated health impact employed long lasting insecticide treated net (LLIN) use by 80% of the population, 90% of households covered by indoor residual spraying (IRS) with deployment starting in April, and intermittent screen and treat (IST) of school children using Artemether lumefantrine (AL) with 80% coverage twice per term. However, the current malaria control strategy in the study area including LLIN use of 56% and IRS coverage of 70% was the most cost effective at reducing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over a five year period.

Conclusions

All the simulated intervention combinations can be considered cost effective in the context of available resources for health in Kenya. Increasing coverage of vector control interventions has a larger simulated impact compared to adding IST to the current implementation strategy, suggesting that transmission in the study area is not at a level to warrant replacing vector control to a school-based screen and treat program. These results have the potential to assist malaria control program managers in the study area in adding new or changing implementation of current interventions.     

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries

Background

Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R₀) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R₀ estimates ranged from 1–4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R₀ than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for.

Conclusions/Significance

Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R₀ will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings.     

Low Parasitemia in Submicroscopic Infections Significantly Impacts Malaria Diagnostic Sensitivity in the Highlands of Western Kenya

Asymptomatic malaria infections represent a major challenge in malaria control and elimination in Africa. They are reservoirs of malaria parasite that can contribute to disease transmission. Therefore, identification and control of asymptomatic infections are important to make malaria elimination feasible. In this study, we investigated the extent and distribution of asymptomatic malaria in Western Kenya and examined how varying parasitemia affects performance of diagnostic methods including microscopy, conventional PCR, and quantitative PCR. In addition, we compared parasite prevalence rates and parasitemia levels with respect to topography and age in order to explore factors that influence malaria infection. Over 11,000 asymptomatic blood samples from children and adolescents up to 18 years old representing broad areas of Western Kenya were included. Quantitative PCR revealed the highest parasite positive rate among all methods and malaria prevalence in western Kenya varied widely from less than 1% to over 50%. A significantly lower parasitemia was detected in highland than in lowland samples and this contrast was also observed primarily among submicroscopic samples. Although we found no correlation between parasitemia level and age, individuals of younger age group (aged <14) showed significantly higher parasite prevalence. In the lowlands, individuals of aged 5–14 showed significantly higher prevalence than those under age 5. Our findings highlight the need for a more sensitive and time-efficient assay for asymptomatic malaria detection particularly in areas of low-transmission. Combining QPCR with microscopy can enhance the capacity of detecting submicroscopic asymptomatic malaria infections.     

Shading by Napier Grass Reduces Malaria Vector Larvae in Natural Habitats in Western Kenya Highlands

Increased human population in the Western Kenya highlands has led to reclamation of natural swamps resulting in the creation of habitats suitable for the breeding of Anopheles gambiae, the major malaria vector in the region. Here we report on a study to restore the reclaimed swamp and reverse its suitability as a habitat for malaria vectors. Napier grass-shaded and non-shaded water channels in reclaimed sites in Western Kenya highlands were studied for the presence and density of mosquito larvae, mosquito species composition, and daily variation in water temperature. Shading was associated with 75.5% and 88.4% (P < 0.0001) reduction in anopheline larvae densities and 78.1% and 88% (P < 0.0001) reduction in Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) densities in two sites, respectively. Shading was associated with a 5.7°C, 5.0°C, and 4.7°C, and 1.6°C, 3.9°C, and 2.8°C (for maximum, minimum, and average temperatures, respectively) reduction (P < 0.0001) in water temperatures in the two locations, respectively. An. gambiae s.l. was the dominant species, constituting 83.2% and 73.1%, and 44.5% and 42.3%, of anophelines in non-shaded and shaded channels, respectively, in the two sites, respectively. An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) constituted the majority (97.4%) of An. gambiae s.l., while the rest (2.6%) comprised of Anopheles arabiensis. Minimum water temperature decreased with increasing grass height (P = 0.0039 and P = 0.0415 for Lunyerere and Emutete sites, respectively). The results demonstrate how simple environmental strategies can have a strong impact on vector densities.     

Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria

BackgroundInfection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated.Conclusions/SignificanceWe have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified.     

Variation in plant biodiversity across sacred groves and fallows in Western Highlands of Cameroon

The study was conducted to compare species richness and diversity in different ecosystems and abiotic factors. The results showed that the sacred groves had a plant genetic diversity composed of a total of 42, 65 and 82 ethno‐botanical species of herbs, shrubs and trees, respectively, with varied qualities. There were six herbaceous species common in the fallow ecosystem and the sacred groves, 35 herbaceous species found in the sacred grove and absent in the fallow vegetation and 70 herbaceous species in the fallow vegetation and absent in the ground layer of the sacred groves. Thirty‐two regenerated species and 49 nonregenerated tree species were found in the sacred groves. The herbaceous α‐diversity was significantly higher in the fallows than the sacred groves at the low altitude. The tree species richness was higher at the low altitude compared to the high altitude with tree β‐diversity increasing with altitude. Varying combinations of soil pH, total P, total K, CEC and slope per cent were related to some of the parameters evaluated. Biodiversity changes in the sacred groves may be governed by biophysical drivers, while a combination of human and biophysical explained the variation in rotational fallow vegetation.     

The Role of Climate Variability in the Spread of Malaria in Bangladeshi Highlands

Background

Malaria is a major public health problem in Bangladesh, frequently occurring as epidemics since the 1990s. Many factors affect increases in malaria cases, including changes in land use, drug resistance, malaria control programs, socioeconomic issues, and climatic factors. No study has examined the relationship between malaria epidemics and climatic factors in Bangladesh. Here, we investigate the relationship between climatic parameters [rainfall, temperature, humidity, sea surface temperature (SST), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)], and malaria cases over the last 20 years in the malaria endemic district of Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT).

Methods and Principal Findings

Monthly malaria case data from January 1989 to December 2008, monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal and ENSO index at the Niño Region 3 (NIÑO3) were used. A generalized linear negative binomial regression model was developed using the number of monthly malaria cases and each of the climatic parameters. After adjusting for potential mutual confounding between climatic factors there was no evidence for any association between the number of malaria cases and temperature, rainfall and humidity. Only a low NDVI was associated with an increase in the number of malaria cases. There was no evidence of an association between malaria cases and SST in the Bay of Bengal and NIÑO3.

Conclusion and Significance

It seems counterintuitive that a low NDVI, an indicator of low vegetation greenness, is associated with increases in malaria cases, since the primary vectors in Bangladesh, such as An. dirus, are associated with forests. This relationship can be explained by the drying up of rivers and streams creating suitable breeding sites for the vector fauna. Bangladesh has very high vector species diversity and vectors suited to these habitats may be responsible for the observed results.     

Protein Microarray Analysis of Antibody Responses to Plasmodium falciparum in Western Kenyan Highland Sites with Differing Transmission Levels

Malaria represents a major public health problem in Africa. In the East African highlands, the high-altitude areas were previously considered too cold to support vector population and parasite transmission, rendering the region particularly prone to epidemic malaria due to the lack of protective immunity of the population. Since the 1980’s, frequent malaria epidemics have been reported and these successive outbreaks may have generated some immunity against Plasmodium falciparum amongst the highland residents. Serological studies reveal indirect evidence of human exposure to the parasite, and can reliably assess prevalence of exposure and transmission intensity in an endemic area. However, the vast majority of serological studies of malaria have been, hereto, limited to a small number of the parasite’s antigens. We surveyed and compared the antibody response profiles of age-stratified sera from residents of two endemic areas in the western Kenyan highlands with differing malaria transmission intensities, during two distinct seasons, against 854 polypeptides of P. falciparum using high-throughput proteomic microarray technology. We identified 107 proteins as serum antibody targets, which were then characterized for their gene ontology biological process and cellular component of the parasite, and showed significant enrichment for categories related to immune evasion, pathogenesis and expression on the host’s cell and parasite’s surface. Additionally, we calculated age-fitted annual seroconversion rates for the immunogenic proteins, and contrasted the age-dependent antibody acquisition for those antigens between the two sampling sites. We observed highly immunogenic antigens that produce stable antibody responses from early age in both sites, as well as less immunogenic proteins that require repeated exposure for stable responses to develop and produce different seroconversion rates between sites. We propose that a combination of highly and less immunogenic proteins could be used in serological surveys to detect differences in malaria transmission levels, distinguishing sites of unstable and stable transmission.     

Malaria Morbidity in High and Seasonal Malaria Transmission Area of Burkina Faso

Background

Malariometric parameters are often primary endpoints of efficacy trials of malaria vaccine candidates. This study aims to describe the epidemiology of malaria prior to the conduct of a series of drug and vaccine trials in a rural area of Burkina Faso.

Methods

Malaria incidence was prospectively evaluated over one year follow-up among two cohorts of children aged 0–5 years living in the Saponé health district. The parents of 1089 children comprising a passive case detection cohort were encouraged to seek care from the local health clinic at any time their child felt sick. Among this cohort, 555 children were randomly selected for inclusion in an active surveillance sub-cohort evaluated for clinical malaria during twice weekly home visits. Malaria prevalence was evaluated by cross-sectional survey during the low and high transmission seasons.

Results

Number of episodes per child ranged from 0 to 6 per year. Cumulative incidence was 67.4% in the passive and 86.2% in the active cohort and was highest among children 0–1 years. Clinical malaria prevalence was 9.8% in the low and 13.0% in the high season (p>0.05). Median days to first malaria episode ranged from 187 (95% CI 180–193) among children 0–1 years to 228 (95% CI 212, 242) among children 4–5 years. The alternative parasite thresholds for the malaria case definition that achieved optimal sensitivity and specificity (70–80%) were 3150 parasites/µl in the high and 1350 parasites/µl in the low season.

Conclusion

Clinical malaria burden was highest among the youngest age group children, who may represent the most appropriate target population for malaria vaccine candidate development. The pyrogenic threshold of parasitaemia varied markedly by season, suggesting a value for alternative parasitaemia levels in the malaria case defintion. Regional epidemiology of malaria described, Sapone area field centers are positioned for future conduct of malaria vaccine trials.     

Estimating the Global Clinical Burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007

Background

The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches.

Methods and Findings

In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales.Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349–552 million) clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Myanmar (Burma), where 1.405 billion people are at risk.Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national estimates were ranked according to their relative uncertainty and replaced by surveillance-based estimates in the least certain half, 98% of the global clinical burden continued to be estimated by cartographic techniques.

Conclusions and Significance

Cartographic approaches to burden estimation provide a globally consistent measure of malaria morbidity of known fidelity, and they represent the only plausible method in those malaria-endemic countries with nonfunctional national surveillance. Unacceptable uncertainty in the clinical burden of malaria in only four countries confounds our ability to evaluate needs and monitor progress toward international targets for malaria control at the global scale. National prevalence surveys in each nation would reduce this uncertainty profoundly. Opportunities for further reducing uncertainty in clinical burden estimates by hybridizing alternative burden estimation procedures are also evaluated. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Aerial Surveys for Estimating Wild Turkey Abundance in the Texas Rolling Plains

Abstract: Aerial surveys have been used to estimate abundance of several wild bird species including wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). We used inflatable turkey decoys at 3 study sites in the Texas Rolling Plains to simulate Rio Grande wild turkey (M. g. intermedia) flocks. We evaluated detectability of flocks and errors in counting flock size during fixed-wing (Cessna 172) aerial surveys using logistic and linear regression models. Flock detectability was primarily influenced by flock size and vegetative cover, and errors in counting flock size were primarily influenced by size of flocks. We conducted computer simulations to evaluate the accuracy and precision of fixed-wing aerial surveys and examined power to detect trends in population change. Our simulations suggested abundance estimates from fixed-wing aerial surveys may be underestimated by 10-15% (2.0-4.8% CV). Power analyses suggested that fixed-wing aerial surveys can provide sufficient power (>0.80) to detect a population change of 10-25% over a 4-5-year period. We concluded fixed-wing aerial surveys are feasible on ecoregion scales.     

Road-Based Surveys for Estimating Wild Turkey Density in the Texas Rolling Plains

Abstract: Line-transect-based distance sampling has been used to estimate density of several wild bird species including wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). We used inflatable turkey decoys during autumn (Aug-Nov) and winter (Dec-Mar) 2003-2005 at study sites in the Texas Rolling Plains, USA, to simulate Rio Grande wild turkey (M. g. intermedia) flocks. We evaluated detectability of flocks using logistic regression models. Our modeling effort suggested that distance to a flock and flock size played important roles in flock detectability. We also conducted surveys from roads for wild turkeys during November 2004-January 2006. The detection probability of decoy flocks was similar to wild turkey flocks during winter (decoy flock, 69.3 ± 6.2% [x̄ ± 95% CI]; wild turkey flock, 62.2 ± 18.3%) and autumn (decoy flock, 44.1 ± 5.1%; wild turkey flock, 44.7 ± 25.6%), which suggested that using decoys was appropriate for evaluating detectability of wild turkey flocks from roads. We conducted computer simulations to evaluate the performance of line-transect-based distance sampling and examined the power to detect trends in population change. Simulations suggested that population density may be underestimated by 12% during inter and 29% during autumn. Such bias occurred because of incomplete detectability of flocks near roads. Winter surveys tended to have less bias, lower relative variability, and greater power than did autumn surveys. During winter surveys, power was sufficient (≥0.80) to detect a 10-25% change in population density in 8-12 years using ≥100 16-km transects or ≥80 32-km transects. We concluded line-transect-based distance sampling from roads is an efficient, effective, and inexpensive technique for monitoring Rio Grande wild turkey populations across large scales.     

Evolution of Plastic Transmission Strategies in Avian Malaria

Malaria parasites have been shown to adjust their life history traits to changing environmental conditions. Parasite relapses and recrudescences—marked increases in blood parasite numbers following a period when the parasite was either absent or present at very low levels in the blood, respectively—are expected to be part of such adaptive plastic strategies. Here, we first present a theoretical model that analyses the evolution of transmission strategies in fluctuating seasonal environments and we show that relapses may be adaptive if they are concomitant with the presence of mosquitoes in the vicinity of the host. We then experimentally test the hypothesis that Plasmodium parasites can respond to the presence of vectors. For this purpose, we repeatedly exposed birds infected by the avian malaria parasite Plasmodium relictum to the bites of uninfected females of its natural vector, the mosquito Culex pipiens, at three different stages of the infection: acute (∼34 days post infection), early chronic (∼122 dpi) and late chronic (∼291 dpi). We show that: (i) mosquito-exposed birds have significantly higher blood parasitaemia than control unexposed birds during the chronic stages of the infection and that (ii) this translates into significantly higher infection prevalence in the mosquito. Our results demonstrate the ability of Plasmodium relictum to maximize their transmission by adopting plastic life history strategies in response to the availability of insect vectors.     

Geographic Variation of Color in the Synanthropic Blue Rock Pigeon

Variation in plumage color was studied in 211 populations of the blue rock pigeon (Columbia livia) from various geographic zones. The frequency distribution of three common and three rare phenotypes and an interspecific hybridization zone ofC. liviaand C. rupestriswere described. Different conditions of the origin of the urban populations of blue rock pigeon and consequent high genetic heterogeneity of this species were revealed. The key aspect of color polymorphism in blue rock pigeon is synanthropization, i.e., anthropogenic evolution.