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1.
Ibrahim MM de Angelis R Lima AS Viana de Carvalho GD Ibrahim FM Malki LT de Paula Bichuete M de Paula Martins W Rocha EM 《PloS one》2012,7(3):e33775
Purpose
Fungi are a major cause of keratitis, although few medications are licensed for their treatment. The aim of this study is to observe the variation in commercialisation of antifungal eye drops, and to predict the seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil.Methods
Data from a retrospective study of antifungal eye drops sales from the only pharmaceutical ophthalmologic laboratory, authorized to dispense them in Brazil (Opthalmos) were gathered. These data were correlated with geographic and seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil between July 2002 and June 2008.Results
A total of 26,087 antifungal eye drop units were sold, with a mean of 2.3 per patient. There was significant variation in antifungal sales during the year (p<0.01). A linear regression model displayed a significant association between reduced relative humidity and antifungal drug sales (R2 = 0.17,p<0.01).Conclusions
Antifungal eye drops sales suggest that there is a seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis. A possible interpretation is that the third quarter of the year (a period when the climate is drier), when agricultural activity is more intense in Brazil, suggests a correlation with a higher incidence of fungal keratitis. A similar model could be applied to other diseases, that are managed with unique, or few, and monitorable medications to predict epidemiological aspects. 相似文献2.
Nader IW Pietschnig J Niederkrotenthaler T Kapusta ND Sonneck G Voracek M 《PloS one》2011,6(2):e17413
Background
Seasonality of suicides is well-known and nearly ubiquitous, but recent evidence showed inconsistent patterns of decreasing or increasing seasonality in different countries. Furthermore, strength of seasonality was hypothesized to be associated with suicide prevalence. This study aimed at pointing out methodological difficulties in examining changes in suicide seasonality.Methododology/Principal Findings
The present study examines the hypothesis of decreasing seasonality with a superior method that allows continuous modeling of seasonality. Suicides in Austria (1970–2008, N = 67,741) were analyzed with complex demodulation, a local (point-in-time specific) version of harmonic analysis. This avoids the need to arbitrarily split the time series, as is common practice in the field of suicide seasonality research, and facilitates incorporating the association with suicide prevalence. Regression models were used to assess time trends and association of amplitude and absolute suicide numbers. Results showed that strength of seasonality was associated with absolute suicide numbers, and that strength of seasonality was stable during the study period when this association was taken into account.Conclusion/Significance
Continuous modeling of suicide seasonality with complex demodulation avoids spurious findings that can result when time series are segmented and analyzed piecewise or when the association with suicide prevalence is disregarded. 相似文献3.
4.
Background
Vitamin D is an important micronutrient for health. Hypovitaminosis D is thought to play a role in the seasonality of a number of diseases and adverse health conditions. To refine hypotheses about the links between vitamin D and seasonal diseases, good estimates of the cyclicality of serum vitamin D are necessary.Objectives
The objective of this study is to describe quantitatively the cyclicality of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) in the United States. We provide a statistical analysis with weekly time resolution, in comparison to the quarterly (winter/spring/summer/fall) estimates already in the literature.Methods
We analyzed time series data on 25OHD, spanning 287 consecutive weeks. The pooled data set comes from 3.44 million serum samples from the United States. We statistically analyzed the proportion of sera that were vitamin D sufficient, defined as 25OHD ng/mL, as a function of date.Results
In the United States, serum 25OHD follows a lagged pattern relative to the astronomical seasons, peaking in late summer (August) and troughing in late winter (February). Airmass, which is a function of solar altitude, fits the 25OHD data very well when lagged by 8 weeks.Conclusions
Serum vitamin D levels can be modeled as a function of date, working through a double-log transformation of minimal solar airmass (easily calculated from solar altitude, retrievable from an online solar altitude/azimuth table). 相似文献5.
C. Andy Schuetz Peter Alperin Swathi Guda Andrew van Herick Bertrand Cariou David Eddy Janusz Gumprecht Antonio Nicolucci Peter Schwarz Nick J. Wareham Daniel R. Witte Ulf Smith 《PloS one》2013,8(7)
Background
No clinical trials have assessed the effects or cost-effectiveness of health check strategies to detect and manage vascular disease. We used a mathematical model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of several health check strategies in six European countries.Methods
We used country-specific data from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom to generate simulated populations of individuals aged 40–75 eligible for health checks in those countries (e.g. individuals without a previous diagnosis of diabetes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or serious chronic kidney disease). For each country, we used the Archimedes model to compare seven health check strategies consisting of assessments for diabetes, hypertension, lipids, and smoking. For patients diagnosed with vascular disease, treatment was simulated in a standard manner. We calculated the effects of each strategy on the incidence of type 2 diabetes, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and microvascular complications in addition to quality of life, costs, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).Results
Compared with current care, health checks reduced the incidence of MACE (6–17 events prevented per 1000 people screened) and diabetes related microvasular complications (5–11 events prevented per 1000 people screened), and increased QALYs (31–59 discounted QALYs) over 30 years, in all countries. The cost per QALY of offering a health check to all individuals in the study cohort ranged from €14903 (France) to cost saving (Poland). Pre-screening the population and offering health checks only to higher risk individuals lowered the cost per QALY. Pre-screening on the basis of obesity had a cost per QALY of €10200 (France) or less, and pre-screening with a non-invasive risk score was similar.Conclusions
A vascular disease health check would likely be cost effective at 30 years in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom. 相似文献6.
7.
Introduction
With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions’ impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during “consolidation” and “pre-elimination” phases.Methods
Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years.Results
The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series.Conclusions
G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low. 相似文献8.
Background
Birmingham is the largest UK city after London, and central Birmingham has an annual tuberculosis incidence of 80 per 100,000. We examined seasonality and sunlight as drivers of tuberculosis incidence. Hours of sunshine are seasonal, sunshine exposure is necessary for the production of vitamin D by the body and vitamin D plays a role in the host response to tuberculosis.Methods
We performed an ecological study that examined tuberculosis incidence in Birmingham from Dec 1981 to Nov 2009, using publicly-available data from statutory tuberculosis notifications, and related this to the seasons and hours of sunshine (UK Meteorological Office data) using unmeasured component models.Results
There were 9,739 tuberculosis cases over the study period. There was strong evidence for seasonality, with notifications being 24.1% higher in summer than winter (p<0.001). Winter dips in sunshine correlated with peaks in tuberculosis incidence six months later (4.7% increase in incidence for each 100 hours decrease in sunshine, p<0.001).Discussion and Conclusion
A potential mechanism for these associations includes decreased vitamin D levels with consequent impaired host defence arising from reduced sunshine exposure in winter. This is the longest time series of any published study and our use of statutory notifications means this data is essentially complete. We cannot, however, exclude the possibility that another factor closely correlated with the seasons, other than sunshine, is responsible. Furthermore, exposure to sunlight depends not only on total hours of sunshine but also on multiple individual factors. Our results should therefore be considered hypothesis-generating. Confirmation of a potential causal relationship between winter vitamin D deficiency and summer peaks in tuberculosis incidence would require a randomized-controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D supplementation on future tuberculosis incidence. 相似文献9.
Vinay Gupta Fatimah S. Dawood Charung Muangchana Phan Trong Lan Anonh Xeuatvongsa Ly Sovann Remigio Olveda Jeffery Cutter Khin Yi Oo Theresia Sandra Diah Ratih Chong Chee Kheong Bryan K. Kapella Paul Kitsutani Andrew Corwin Sonja J. Olsen 《PloS one》2012,7(12)
Background
Southeast Asia is a region with great potential for the emergence of a pandemic influenza virus. Global efforts to improve influenza surveillance in this region have documented the burden and seasonality of influenza viruses and have informed influenza prevention strategies, but little information exists about influenza vaccination guidelines and vaccine sales.Methods
To ascertain the existence of influenza vaccine guidelines and define the scope of vaccine sales, we sent a standard three-page questionnaire to the ten member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. We also surveyed three multinational manufacturers who supply influenza vaccines in the region.Results
Vaccine sales in the private sector were <1000 per 100,000 population in the 10 countries. Five countries reported purchasing vaccine for use in the public sector. In 2011, Thailand had the highest combined reported rate of vaccine sales (10,333 per 100,000). In the 10 countries combined, the rate of private sector sales during 2010–2011 (after the A(H1N1)2009pdm pandemic) exceeded 2008 pre-pandemic levels. Five countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) had guidelines for influenza vaccination but only two were consistent with global guidelines. Four recommended vaccination for health care workers, four for elderly persons, three for young children, three for persons with underlying disease, and two for pregnant women.Conclusions
The rate of vaccine sales in Southeast Asia remains low, but there was a positive impact in sales after the A(H1N1)2009pdm pandemic. Low adherence to global vaccine guidelines suggests that more work is needed in the policy arena. 相似文献10.
Objective
Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most common non-intestinal infection worldwide. In the developed world, incidence and prevalence of UTI would be similar owing to the relatively short duration of illness experienced by women with ready access to healthcare services. We hypothesize that, in the developing world, factors limiting access to care and those which may increase the likelihood of developing UTI, result in increased morbidity. This difference is reflected in an increased prevalence of UTI in regions where women suffer the effects of UTI for extended periods of time.Methods
This study represents a cross sectional analysis of UTI prevalence in rural western Panama conducted over the course of a 3-day medical mission. All women 18–45 years of age reporting to the medical brigade clinic were tested for UTI by dipstick urinalysis and a brief history regardless of whether they themselves were presenting with a complaint.Results
UTI was diagnosed clinically by providers in 29.8% of the women tested although only 21.15% of these same women met the evidence-based study criteria. This prevalence of 21.15% is seven times greater than reported by the Panamanian Ministry of Health. When comparing the effectiveness of clinical diagnosis relative to urinalysis by dipstick, a Kappa coefficient revealed only low moderate agreement (0.42; SE 0.0955).Conclusions
The prevalence of UTI in rural western Panama is greater than would be expected based on prevalence data from either the US or Panamanian Ministry of Health and may represent an opportunity for targeted interventions, including educational programming about UTI prevention. 相似文献11.
Spatiotemporal Pattern of Bacillary Dysentery in China from 1990 to 2009: What Is the Driver Behind?
Background
Little is known about the spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery (BD) in China. This study assessed the geographic distribution and seasonality of BD in China over the past two decades.Methods
Data on monthly BD cases in 31 provinces of China from January 1990 to December 2009 obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and data on demographic and geographic factors, as well as climatic factors, were compiled. The spatial distributions of BD in the four periods across different provinces were mapped, and heat maps were created to present the seasonality of BD by geography. A cosinor function combined with Poisson regression was used to quantify the seasonal parameters of BD, and a regression analysis was conducted to identify the potential drivers of morbidity and seasonality of BD.Results
Although most regions of China have experienced considerable declines in BD morbidity over the past two decades, Beijing and Ningxia still had high BD morbidity in 2009. BD morbidity decreased more slowly in North-west China than other regions. BD in China mainly peaked from July to September, with heterogeneity in peak time between regions. Relative humidity was associated with BD morbidity and peak time, and latitude was the major predictor of BD amplitude.Conclusions
The transmission of BD was heterogeneous in China. Improved sanitation and hygiene in North-west China, and better access to clean water and food in the big floating population in some metropolises could be the focus of future preventive interventions against BD. BD control efforts should put more emphasis on those dry areas in summer. 相似文献12.
Kimberly Bloom-Feshbach Wladimir J. Alonso Vivek Charu James Tamerius Lone Simonsen Mark A. Miller Cécile Viboud 《PloS one》2013,8(2)
Background
There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses.Methods
We review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings. We fitted time series model to weekly national data available from the WHO influenza surveillance system (FluNet) to further characterize seasonal parameters.Results
Influenza and RSV activity consistently peaked during winter months in temperate locales, while there was greater diversity in the tropics. Several temperate locations experienced semi-annual influenza activity with peaks occurring in winter and summer. Semi-annual activity was relatively common in tropical areas of Southeast Asia for both viruses. Biennial cycles of RSV activity were identified in Northern Europe. Both viruses exhibited weak latitudinal gradients in the timing of epidemics by hemisphere, with peak timing occurring later in the calendar year with increasing latitude (P<0.03). Time series model applied to influenza data from 85 countries confirmed the presence of latitudinal gradients in timing, duration, seasonal amplitude, and between-year variability of epidemics. Overall, 80% of tropical locations experienced distinct RSV seasons lasting 6 months or less, while the percentage was 50% for influenza.Conclusion
Our review combining literature and electronic data sources suggests that a large fraction of tropical locations experience focused seasons of respiratory virus activity in individual years. Information on seasonal patterns remains limited in large undersampled regions, included Africa and Central America. Future studies should attempt to link the observed latitudinal gradients in seasonality of viral epidemics with climatic and population factors, and explore regional differences in disease transmission dynamics and attack rates. 相似文献13.
Introduction
Understanding the temporal patterns in disease occurrence is valuable for formulating effective disease preventive programs. Cohort studies present a unique opportunity to explore complex interactions associated with emergence of seasonal patterns of infectious diseases.Methods
We used data from 452 children participating in a birth cohort study to assess the seasonal patterns of rotavirus diarrhea by creating a weekly time series of rotavirus incidence and fitting a Poisson harmonic regression with biannual peaks. Age and cohort effects were adjusted for by including the weekly counts of number of children in the study and the median age of cohort in a given week. Weekly average temperature, humidity and an interaction term to reflect the joint effect of temperature and humidity were included to consider the effects of meteorological variables.Results
In the overall rotavirus time series, two significant peaks within a single year were observed – one in winter and the other in summer. The effect of age was found to be the most significant contributor for rotavirus incidence, showing a strong negative association. Seasonality remained a significant factor, even after adjusting for meteorological parameters, and the age and cohort effects.Conclusions
The methodology for assessing seasonality in cohort studies is not yet developed. This is the first attempt to explore seasonal patterns in a cohort study with a dynamic denominator and rapidly changing immune response on individual and group levels, and provides a highly promising approach for a better understanding of the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases, tracking emergence of pathogenic strains and evaluating the efficacy of intervention programs. 相似文献14.
A Meta-Analysis of the Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Background
Despite the rapid adoption of genetically modified (GM) crops by farmers in many countries, controversies about this technology continue. Uncertainty about GM crop impacts is one reason for widespread public suspicion.Objective
We carry out a meta-analysis of the agronomic and economic impacts of GM crops to consolidate the evidence.Data Sources
Original studies for inclusion were identified through keyword searches in ISI Web of Knowledge, Google Scholar, EconLit, and AgEcon Search.Study Eligibility Criteria
Studies were included when they build on primary data from farm surveys or field trials anywhere in the world, and when they report impacts of GM soybean, maize, or cotton on crop yields, pesticide use, and/or farmer profits. In total, 147 original studies were included.Synthesis Methods
Analysis of mean impacts and meta-regressions to examine factors that influence outcomes.Results
On average, GM technology adoption has reduced chemical pesticide use by 37%, increased crop yields by 22%, and increased farmer profits by 68%. Yield gains and pesticide reductions are larger for insect-resistant crops than for herbicide-tolerant crops. Yield and profit gains are higher in developing countries than in developed countries.Limitations
Several of the original studies did not report sample sizes and measures of variance.Conclusion
The meta-analysis reveals robust evidence of GM crop benefits for farmers in developed and developing countries. Such evidence may help to gradually increase public trust in this technology. 相似文献15.
Lehmann LE Hauser S Malinka T Klaschik S Weber SU Schewe JC Stüber F Book M 《PloS one》2011,6(2):e17146
Background
Urinary tract infections (UTI) are frequent in outpatients. Fast pathogen identification is mandatory for shortening the time of discomfort and preventing serious complications. Urine culture needs up to 48 hours until pathogen identification. Consequently, the initial antibiotic regimen is empirical.Aim
To evaluate the feasibility of qualitative urine pathogen identification by a commercially available real-time PCR blood pathogen test (SeptiFast®) and to compare the results with dipslide and microbiological culture.Design of study
Pilot study with prospectively collected urine samples.Setting
University hospital.Methods
82 prospectively collected urine samples from 81 patients with suspected UTI were included. Dipslide urine culture was followed by microbiological pathogen identification in dipslide positive samples. In parallel, qualitative DNA based pathogen identification (SeptiFast®) was performed in all samples.Results
61 samples were SeptiFast® positive, whereas 67 samples were dipslide culture positive. The inter-methodological concordance of positive and negative findings in the gram+, gram- and fungi sector was 371/410 (90%), 477/492 (97%) and 238/246 (97%), respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of the SeptiFast® test for the detection of an infection was 0.82 and 0.60, respectively. SeptiFast® pathogen identifications were available at least 43 hours prior to culture results.Conclusion
The SeptiFast® platform identified bacterial DNA in urine specimens considerably faster compared to conventional culture. For UTI diagnosis sensitivity and specificity is limited by its present qualitative setup which does not allow pathogen quantification. Future quantitative assays may hold promise for PCR based UTI pathogen identification as a supplementation of conventional culture methods. 相似文献16.
17.
Andrew J. Renuart David M. Goldfarb Margaret Mokomane Ephraim O. Tawanana Mohan Narasimhamurthy Andrew P. Steenhoff Jonathan A. Silverman 《PloS one》2013,8(3)
Objective
The microbiology and epidemiology of UTI pathogens are largely unknown in Botswana, a high prevalence HIV setting. Using laboratory data from the largest referral hospital and a private hospital, we describe the major pathogens causing UTI and their antimicrobial resistance patterns.Methods
This retrospective study examined antimicrobial susceptibility data for urine samples collected at Princess Marina Hospital (PMH), Bokamoso Private Hospital (BPH), or one of their affiliated outpatient clinics. A urine sample was included in our dataset if it demonstrated pure growth of a single organism and accompanying antimicrobial susceptibility and subject demographic data were available.Results
A total of 744 samples were included. Greater than 10% resistance was observed for amoxicillin, co-trimoxazole, amoxicillin-clavulanate, and ciprofloxacin. Resistance of E. coli isolates to ampicillin and co-trimoxazole was greater than 60% in all settings. HIV status did not significantly impact the microbiology of UTIs, but did impact antimicrobial resistance to co-trimoxazole.Conclusions
Data suggests that antimicrobial resistance has already emerged to most oral antibiotics, making empiric management of outpatient UTIs challenging. Ampicillin, co-trimoxazole, and ciprofloxacin should not be used as empiric treatment for UTI in this context. Nitrofurantoin could be used for simple cystitis; aminoglycosides for uncomplicated UTI in inpatients. 相似文献18.
Background
Autism incidence and prevalence have increased dramatically in the last two decades. The autism caseload in California increased 600% between 1992 and 2006, yet there is little consensus as to the cause. Studying the seasonality of conceptions of children later diagnosed with autism may yield clues to potential etiological drivers.Objective
To assess if the conceptions of children later diagnosed with autism cluster temporally in a systematic manner and whether any pattern of temporal clustering persists over time.Method
We searched for seasonality in conceptions of children later diagnosed with autism by applying a one-dimensional scan statistic with adaptive temporal windows on case and control population data from California for 1992 through 2000. We tested for potential confounding effects from known risk factors using logistic regression models.Results
There is a consistent but decreasing seasonal pattern in the risk of conceiving a child later diagnosed with autism in November for the first half of the study period. Temporal clustering of autism conceptions is not an artifact of composition with respect to known risk factors for autism such as socio-economic status.Conclusion
There is some evidence of seasonality in the risk of conceiving a child later diagnosed with autism. Searches for environmental factors related to autism should allow for the possibility of risk factors or etiological drivers that are seasonally patterned and that appear and remain salient for a discrete number of years. 相似文献19.
Background
Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour.Methodology/Principal Findings
We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960–2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini = 0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18).Conclusions/Significance
Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries. 相似文献20.
Nadia Bystriakova Stephen W. Ansell Stephen J. Russell Michael Grundmann Johannes C. Vogel Harald Schneider 《Annals of botany》2014,113(3):453-465