Landscape connectivity of the grassland biome in Mpumalanga,South Africa

The South African grassland biome is one of the most threatened biomes in South Africa. Approximately 45% of the grassland biome area is transformed, degraded or severely invaded by alien plants and the remaining natural areas are highly fragmented. In this fragmented landscape, the connectivity between habitat patches is very important to maintain viable populations. In this study we aimed to quantify connectivity of the grassland biome in Mpumalanga using graph theory in order to identify conservation priorities and to direct conservation efforts. Graph theory‐based connectivity indices have the ability to combine spatially explicit habitat data with species specific dispersal data and can quantify structural and functional connectivity over large landscapes. We used these indices to quantify the overall connectivity of the study area, to determine the influence of abandoned croplands on overall connectivity, and to identify the habitat patches and vegetation types most in need of maintaining overall connectivity. Natural areas were identified using 2008 land cover data for Mpumalanga. Connectivity within the grassland biome of Mpumalanga was analysed for grassland species with dispersal distances ranging from 50 to 1000 m. The grassland habitat patches were mostly well connected, with 99.6% of the total habitat area connected in a single component at a threshold distance of 1000 m. The inclusion of abandoned croplands resulted in a 33% increase in connectivity at a threshold distance of 500 m. The habitat patches most important for maintaining overall connectivity were the large patches of continuous habitat in the upper and lower centres of the study area and the most important vegetation types were the Wakkerstroom Montane Grassland and the Eastern Temperate Freshwater Wetlands. These results can be used to inform management decisions and reserve design to improve and maintain connectivity in this biome.     

Relative effects of climate variation and human activities on grassland dynamics in Africa from 2000 to 2015

Grassland plays a key role in socioeconomic development and environmental protection in Africa. Climate variation and human activities are two main drivers of grassland dynamics. Quantitatively assessing the contributions of these two factors and understanding the driving mechanisms are important in ecosystem adaptation and management. In this research, the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland dynamics in Africa during 2000–2015 were analyzed based on the net primary productivity (NPP), M-K test, linear regression analysis, and correlation analysis. In addition, the potential NPP (PNPP), human-induced NPP (HNPP) and actual NPP (ANPP) were employed to establish scenarios to distinguish the relative impacts of climatic and human factors on grassland dynamics. An overall grassland ANPP increase than decrease (62.91% vs 37.09%) was found during 2000–2015. 21.80% of the total grassland area showed increases in ANPP, which was influenced by climate variation, whereas 23.61% were affected by human activities. The ANPP decreases induced by climate variation, human activities and the combination of these two factors occupied 19.31%, 8.39% and 9.39% of the total grassland area, respectively. Therefore, the contributions of climatic and human factors on ANPP increase were almost consistent, while climate variation was the dominated factor on ANPP decrease. In addition, the respective roles of these two factors were quite different in five grassland types. The dynamics of ANPP in closed shrublands, non-woody grasslands, and open shrublands were mainly attributed to the climate variation. Meanwhile, the human-dominated increases in ANPP were observed in woody savannas. Further analysis demonstrated that the increases in African grassland ANPP are likely due to the mitigation of drought and reduction in land use intensity, while the decreases in ANPP were related to unbalance of local hydrothermal condition and overgrazing. This study expects to improve the understanding of the respective contributions of climatic and human factors on grassland dynamics in Africa.     

Success of active restoration in grasslands: a case study of birds in southern Brazil

Grasslands in southeastern South America have been extensively converted to various land uses such as agriculture, threatening regional biodiversity. Active restoration has been viewed as a management alternative for recovery of degraded areas worldwide, although most studies are conducted in forests and none has evaluated the effect of active restoration of grasslands in southeastern South America. From 2015 through 2017 we monitored a federally owned tract of grassland from the beginning of the active‐restoration process. We compared the bird community in this active‐restoration area (AR) with a reference area (NG) in Pampa grasslands in southern Brazil. We sampled birds by point counts and surveyed vegetation structure in plots. Over the 3 years of active restoration, bird species richness and abundance were higher in AR (30 species, 171 individuals) than NG (22 species, 154 individuals). The species composition also differed between the two habitats. Grassland bird species were present in both AR and NG. The vegetation structure differed between AR and NG in five attributes: height, short and tall grasses, herbs, and shrubs. Since it has been found that active restoration is useful in promoting species diversity, we encourage studies of the use of long‐term restoration efforts. Our study, even on a local scale, showed a rapid recovery of the bird community in the active‐restoration compared to native grassland, and suggests the potential for recovery of the degraded grasslands of the Brazilian Pampa biome.     

Assessment of grassland use intensity by remote sensing to support conservation schemes

Grassland is a land cover in the area of conflict between agriculture and conservation, where intensification of land use is a major threat to grassland biodiversity. Grassland use intensity is a key factor for the conservation value of grassland, and detailed spatial data on grassland use intensity is needed to improve strategies for biodiversity conservation. A new remote sensing-based approach using multi-temporal high resolution RapidEye satellite data was developed in the present study that makes a large-scale assessment of grassland use intensity possible. RapidEye is a constellation of five satellites with 6.5 m spatial resolution, which allows frequent and timely image acquisition targeted at specific growing seasons. Semi-natural grassland, extensively used grassland, intensively used grassland and tilled grassland could be reliably differentiated at the management plot level in a study area in southern Germany. Various combinations of images from different observation dates have been tested as classification input and their overall classification accuracies were validated by field data. Best results were achieved using a combination of five multi-temporal scenes with an overall accuracy of 85.7%. A three-scene combination resulted in an overall accuracy of 82.2%. The analysis showed that seasonal aspects are very important when selecting adequate observation dates. Grassland use intensity was also assessed on peatlands using a peat soil map, since land use intensity significantly affects greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands. The results demonstrate the potential of targeted multi-spectral, high spatial resolution remote sensing for the large-scale monitoring of dynamic habitats, which is of vital importance to support various environmental conservation schemes through improved monitoring and reporting capabilities.     

草原生态系统损害鉴定评估体系及管理建议

如何科学合理的确定生态系统是否受到损害、损害到什么程度、损害赔偿如何估算等问题已成为环境管理、环境司法工作所面临的紧迫的现实问题。以生态学、复合生态系统生态学、可持续发展的理论为指导,基于损害基线判定损害事件发生,借此鉴定草原生态系统损害状态及鉴定等级,并从受损生态系统的功能与结构角度提出草原生态环境损害鉴定评估体系,开展对草原生态系统损害的程度评估;最后针对草原生态系统的损害赔偿价值提出量化评估的方法,借此推动生态环境损害鉴定评估法的制定和完善生态环境损害鉴定评估技术体系两个方面提出管理建议。     

Life on high: the diversity of small mammals at high altitude in South Africa

The Great Escarpment is the major mountain system in South Africa, yet very few biological surveys have been conducted outside of the well-known Drakensberg section. This is surprising given the important role that mountains play in local and global biodiversity patterns. In this study, small mammal diversity and community composition were estimated at three high altitude (>1,700?m) sites within the Sneeuberg Mountain Complex (SMC) of the Great Escarpment, South Africa from June 2009 to May 2010. The influences of selected environmental variables on diversity were also tested. Of 423 live-captures, a total of 292 unique individuals of 12 small mammal species (one shrew, one elephant shrew and 10 rodents) were identified during 5,280 trap nights. No single environmental variable could account for the variation observed in diversity measurements but vegetation height appeared to be the most important factor to influence the number of individuals captured. It is hypothesised that the high species richness and diversity of small mammals observed in the SMC compared to other parts of the Great Escarpment is due to the SMC being located in a transition zone of the Grassland and Nama-Karoo biomes. Our results suggest that the SMC could be important in conserving small mammal species from western and eastern assemblages across South Africa.     

草原矿区土壤环境损害基线评估判定的应用研究——以内蒙古草原矿区为例

草原生态环境损害评估鉴定中,土壤基线是重要的评价标准。如何确定土壤基线,寻找适宜的基线判定方法,进而判定草原土壤的受损害程度,已成为草原生态系统损害评估鉴定、生态系统保护及修复工作中的关键。基于科学、务实、准确的原则,对内蒙古2个草原矿区土壤的总有机质（TOM）、N、P、K含量进行采样分析,采用历史数据法、参考点位法和统计点位法来判定土壤基线。结果表明,胜利矿区土壤养分均值与参考点位法基线值差异较小,采矿对胜利矿区土壤养分含量未见直接的影响。宝日希勒矿区土壤中TOM含量均值明显低于3种方法得出的基线值,N、K均值与参考点位法基线值相似,P均值位于3种基线值之间。可见采矿对宝日希勒矿区土壤中TOM的含量造成了直接影响,对N、P、K含量未见直接的影响。最适宜该地区的方法取决于样本质量和评估尺度,建议以参考点位法为主,历史数据法和统计点位法作为验证工具,3种方法共同使用。     

Pasture area and landscape heterogeneity are key determinants of bird diversity in intensively managed farmland

Agriculture intensification has drastically altered farmland mosaics, while semi-natural grasslands have been considerably reduced and fragmented. Bird declines in northern temperate latitudes are attributed to habitat loss and degradation in farmed landscapes. Conversely, landscape-modification effects on grassland/farmland bird communities are less studied in the South American temperate grasslands. We investigated how bird communities were influenced by landscape characteristics in the Rolling Pampa (Argentina). We sampled bird communities in 356 landscapes of 1-km radius that varied in cover and configuration of pastureland, flooding grassland and cropland. Using generalized linear models, we explored the relationship between both bird species richness and abundance, and landscape structure. Analyses were carried out for all species, and open-habitat, grassland and aquatic species. Pasture area was far the most important factor, followed by landscape composition, in predicting species richness and abundance, irrespective of specific habitat preferences, followed by partially-flooded grassland cover and its mean shape index. Grassland fragmentation did not affect species richness or abundance. When comparing the effects of landscape variables on bird richness and abundance (using mean model coefficients), pasture and grassland area effects were on average more than four times greater than those of compositional heterogeneity, and about ten times greater than shape effects. To conserve species-rich bird communities persisting in Rolling Pampa farmland, we recommend the preservation of pasture and grassland habitats, irrespective of their fragmentation level, in intensively managed farmland mosaics.     

青藏高原北部多年冻土区草地植物多样性

研究了青藏高原北部多年冻土区草地群落植物多样性的特征。研究表明 :草地群落间丰富度指数差异不显著 ,均匀度指数和多样性指数差异显著 (P<0 .0 5 )。均匀度指数表现为高山嵩草 (Kobresia pygmaea)草甸 <紫花针茅 (Stipa purpurea)草原 <矮嵩草 (K.humilis)草甸 <青藏苔草 (Carex moorcroftii)草甸 ,多样性指数表现为高山嵩草草甸 <矮嵩草草甸 <紫花针茅草原<青藏苔草草甸。修路时破坏的矮嵩草草甸在次生恢复过程中 ,离公路 10 0 m处群落的丰富度指数 ,均匀度指数和多样性指数大于原生群落 ,而原生群落的多样性又大于 30 m和 5 0 m处群落的多样性。地上草地群落植物多样性伴随地下冻土退化过程表现为 ,以 1m2样方统计时 ,各个演替群落间的丰富度指数差异不显著 ,而以 10 0 m2样条统计时 ,高寒草甸和草原化草甸的丰富度指数显著大于沼泽草甸和稀疏草原 (P<0 .0 5 ) ,但均匀度和多样性指数在两种统计面积时均表现为先增加后下降的变化趋势。     

呼伦贝尔草原MODIS NDVI的时空变化特征

基于2000—2008年的MODIS NDVI数据,研究了呼伦贝尔草原4种主要草原类型（低地草甸、温性草原、温性草甸草原和山地草甸）年NDVI_max的空间变化趋势、波动程度、出现时间.结果表明：2000—2008年,呼伦贝尔草原植被趋于恶化的形势较严峻;研究区类草原NDVI_max平均值的年际波动明显,特别是温性草原NDVI_max平均值的年际最大波动接近50%;在各等级草原面积的变化上,尽管NDVI_max在(0.4,1］之间的草原平均面积约占研究区总面积的91%,说明呼伦贝尔草原植被状况总体较好,但NDVI_max值在(0.2,0.4]、(0.8,1］之间的草原面积趋于减少,NDVI_max在(0.4,0.8］之间的中高盖度草原面积趋于增加,总体形势不容乐观;66.25%的研究区草原植被状况趋于恶化,33.75%趋于好转;62.85%研究区的NDVI_max出现在每年第193天至第225天（即7月中旬至8月初）,该时期是呼伦贝尔草原植被最重要的生长季节.     

Importance of habitat heterogeneity in remnant patches for conserving dung beetles

Landscape heterogeneity affects the spatial distribution of species. This makes it an important consideration for conservation planning, particularly when designing sustainable production landscapes. We determine whether conserving landscape elements within a transformed landscape is adequate for conserving dung beetle biodiversity. Dung beetles are excellent indicators for landscape biodiversity studies as they are ecologically sensitive. Here we measure dung beetle alpha-diversity, as well as beta-diversity within landscape elements and across different landscape elements. In doing so, we assess the value of landscape elements, as well as variation within landscape elements, in determining the spatial distribution of dung beetles across a production landscape. The study was conducted in the commercial timber production area of the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands, South Africa. In this system, the different landscape elements are a mosaic of natural indigenous forests, grasslands and alien pine plantation blocks. Our results show that the only response for dung beetle alpha-diversity was higher species richness in grasslands and pine blocks compared to natural forests. The highest beta-diversity for a landscape element was the grassland, for elevational category was low elevational areas and grassland type was the Midlands Mistbelt Grassland. The compositional diversity (beta-diversity between elements) was significantly different for all pairwise variations between landscape elements, the elevational categories and grassland types. Natural forests embedded in the two different grassland types had greater differences in compositional diversity than those embedded in natural (grassland) or transformed (pine blocks) matrices. This highlights the need to conserve a range of similar remnant patches of natural vegetation regionally, in addition to conserving broad landscape elements (i.e. grasslands or natural forests) as conservation targets. Furthermore, our results are encouraging for the potential benefits from the ecosystem service provided by dung beetles across the whole landscape, even in the transformed elements.     

The distribution of the millipede Ommatoiulus moreleti (Diplopoda, Julida: Julidae) in relation to other Ommatoiulus species on the south-western Iberian Peninsula

Ommatoiuius moreleti (Lucas) occurs naturally in Portugal and Spain, and has been introduced to some Atlantic Islands, South Africa and southern Australia, where it is widespread and numerous.
In southern Portugal and south-west Spain, O. moreleti shares its range with O. oliveirae (Verhoeff), O. cingulatus (Attems) and several undescribed Ommatoiulus spp. In a study area where O. moreleti was confined to deep litter beneath Quercus trees, O. oliveirae predominated in litter of the bushes Cistus spp., while O. cingulatus was most numerous in an area dominated by grasses and herbs, but with little litter. The three species tended to eat different food items, but this probably reflected local availability rather than preference.
Ommatoiulus moreleti has a distinct western boundary which broadly corresponds with changes in the quantity of litter on the ground. The distribution of O. moreleti was related to the availability of deep litter, often provided by Pinus and Quercus trees, but also by dense shrubs and heath, and undisturbed grassland.
In addition to providing food, litter provides a refuge for O. moreleti. Grassland species such as O. cingulutus live where there is little litter, and probably have to dig deep in the soil to avoid summer desiccation and predation of immature stages. It is suggested that soil hardness and litter depth may be important determinants in the distribution of O. moreleti , and relative digging ability may explain the partitioning of the habitat between the three species studied.     

The antiquity of Madagascar’s grasslands and the rise of C4 grassy biomes

Aim Grasslands and savannas, which make up > 75% of Madagascar’s land area, have long been viewed as anthropogenically derived after people settled on the island c. 2 ka. We investigated this hypothesis and an alternative – that the grasslands are an insular example of the post‐Miocene spread of C₄ grassy biomes world‐wide. Location Madagascar, southern Africa, East Africa. Methods We compared the number of C₄ grass genera in Madagascar with that in southern and south‐central African floras. If the grasslands are recent we would expect to find fewer species and genera in Madagascar relative to Africa and for these species and genera to have very wide distribution ranges in Madagascar. Secondly, we searched Madagascan floras for the presence of endemic plant species or genera restricted to grasslands. We also searched for evidence of a grassland specialist fauna with species endemic to Madagascar. Plant and animal species endemic to C₄ grassy biomes would not be expected if these are of recent origin. Results Madagascar has c. 88 C₄ grass genera, including six endemic genera. Excluding African genera with only one or two species, Madagascar has 86.6% of southern Africa’s and 89.4% of south‐central Africa’s grass genera. C₄ grass species make up c. 4% of the flora of both Madagascar and southern Africa and species : genus ratios are similar (4.3 and 5.1, respectively). Turnover of grasses along geographical gradients follows similar patterns to those in South Africa, with Andropogoneae dominating in mesic biomes and Chlorideae in semi‐arid grassy biomes. At least 16 monocot genera have grassland members, many of which are endemic to Madagascar. Woody species in frequently burnt savannas include both Madagascan endemics and African species. A different woody flora, mostly endemic, occurs in less frequently burnt grasslands in the central highlands, filling a similar successional niche to montane C₄ grasslands in Africa. Diverse vertebrate and invertebrate lineages have grassland specialists, including many endemic to Madagascar (e.g. termites, ants, lizards, snakes, birds and mammals). Grassland use of the extinct fauna is poorly known but carbon isotope analysis indicates that a hippo, two giant tortoises and one extinct lemur ate C₄ or CAM (crassulacean acid metabolism) plants. Main conclusions The diversity of C₄ grass lineages in Madagascar relative to that in Africa, and the presence of plant and animal species endemic to Madagascan grassy biomes, does not fit the view that these grasslands are anthropogenically derived. We suggest that grasslands invaded Madagascar after the late Miocene, part of the world‐wide expansion of C₄ grassy biomes. Madagascar provides an interesting test case for biogeographical analysis of how these novel biomes assembled, and the sources of the flora and fauna that now occupy them. A necessary part of such an analysis would be to establish the pre‐settlement extent of the C₄ grassy biomes. Carbon isotope analysis of soil organic matter would be a feasible method for doing this.     

Pollination ecotypes of Satyrium hallackii (Orchidaceae) in South Africa

Intraspecific variation in floral traits may reflect adaptive shifts in the pollination system of a plant. This idea was tested by examining the pollination biology of Satyrium hallackii H. Bolus., an orchid which has spurs varying from 8 to 36 mm among populations in southern Africa. Field observations showed that the short-spurred form ( S. hallackii subsp. hallackii ) in coastal fynbos habitats is pollinated by bees, while the long-spurred form ( S. hallackii subsp. ocellatum ) in grassland habitats is pollinated primarily by hawkmoths and, secondarily, by long-tongued flies. The shift between hawkmoths and bees as pollinators may have been promoted by an ecological gradient in South Africa: carpenter bees are common in coastal fynbos habitats, but rare in grassland habitats where there are few available nesting sites. On the other hand, hawkmoths are common in grassland habitats, but rare in fynbos where there are few palatable host-plants. The formation of pollination ecotypes across pollinator gradients has probably been a major factor in the diversification of South African plants with specialized pollination systems.     

Rapid recovery of soil arthropod assemblages after exotic plantation tree removal from hydromorphic soils in a grassland‐timber production mosaic

Many wetland systems are being lost or degraded by human activities such as plantation forestry. Therefore, efforts to restore these wetland systems are important for biodiversity recovery. We assess the recovery of arthropod assemblages that occupy hydromorphic grassland topsoil and leaf litter after the removal of exotic pine trees. We sampled arthropods in three biotopes (natural untransformed hydromorphic grasslands, restored hydromorphic grasslands, and commercial pine plantations) replicated across a large‐scale timber‐grassland mosaic in the KwaZulu‐Natal Midlands, South Africa. In the restored sites, overall species richness, as well as species richness of spiders, ants, and orthopterans, was significantly higher than in plantations, and was as high as in natural, untransformed sites. Additionally, overall assemblage structure along with spider, beetle, ant, and orthopteran assemblages showed no significant differences between restored and natural grasslands. Therefore, pine tree removal enables recovery of these arthropod taxa to levels similar to those in natural hydromorphic grassland. Recovery was rapid, with the assemblages in some restored sites resembling those in untransformed sites after only 6 years, indicating a high level of resilience and recovery in these systems. Contrary to expectations, time since pine removal had a negative effect on arthropod recovery. This was due to the strongly negative effect of alien invasive American bramble (Rubus cuneifolius), which was most common in older restored sites, causing deviation from their restoration trajectory. The potential for arthropod recovery in these hydromorphic grasslands is high, but successful restoration is dependent on ongoing appropriate grassland management, especially removal of bramble.     

Can heavy grazing on communal land elevate plant species richness levels in the Grassland Biome of South Africa?

A common perception, particularly in South Africa, is that heavily and continuously grazed communal land leads to degradation and loss of plant diversity when compared to commercial rangeland farming or conservation areas. We focus on whether this applies to the Grassland Biome of South Africa and whether the opposite can occur, namely, an increase in plant species richness under heavy grazing. A study of a contrast between a communal area of the former Ciskei and a neighbouring nature reserve showed that intense utilization under communal use led to a significant increase in plant species richness. However, this increase was scale-dependent with the greatest significant difference occurring at sample plot scale (50 m²) but converging at the broader scale of the whole study site. Species that increased with heavy grazing included those from arid Karroid areas as well as some from more mesic grassland and savanna areas. The contribution of beta diversity to gamma diversity across the grazing contrast was relatively low which reflects the relatively high proportion of species shared between treatments. Total plant canopy cover declined sharply with heavy grazing. In terms of plant canopy cover, grazing favoured annual over perennial plants, prostrate over erect plants, and stoloniferous over tussock plant architecture. This pattern was not supported when expressed in terms of number of species belonging to these grazing response groups or traits.     

Endemicity of Afromontane grasshopper assemblages: implications for grassland conservation

The Drakensberg escarpment in southern Africa is extensively afforested with pine plantations. The Afromontane grasslands in this area have large numbers of endemic plant taxa, but very little is known of their invertebrate fauna. We report on the microgeographical and broad‐scale geographical characteristics of grasshoppers and their allies (Orthoptera) at the Groenvaly grassland fragmentation experiment site, South Africa. Pre‐fragmentation sampling indicates that control sites and experimental fragments were comparable at the start of the experiment. Of the surveyed species (total 31 species) 25% are endemic to this grassland with another 33% occurring more widely in montane grasslands of south‐eastern South Africa. The level of orthopteran endemicity is therefore similar to that of plants, emphasizing the conservation importance of this threatened habitat. There was a significant inverse relation between the degree of stenotopy of a species within the study site and its geographical range in southern Africa, with implications for interpreting the conservation importance of taxonomically and geographically unknown taxa such as the beetles (Coleoptera) in the Afromontane grassland. This information on endemicity of the Afromontane Orthoptera indicates that these grasslands harbour a diverse endemic fauna representing a significant part of southern African biodiversity.     

The impact of black wattle encroachment of indigenous grasslands on soil carbon,Eastern Cape,South Africa

Black wattle (Acacia mearnsii, De Wild.) is a fast growing tree species introduced into South Africa in the nineteenth century for commercial purposes. While being an important source of timber and firewood for local communities, black wattle is an aggressive invasive species and has pervasive adverse environmental impacts in South Africa. Little is known about the effects of black wattle encroachment on soil carbon, therefore the aim of this study was to investigate the impact of black wattle encroachment of natural grassland on soil carbon stocks and dynamics. Focussing on two sites in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, the study analysed carbon stocks in soil and litter on a chronosequence of black wattle stands of varying ages (up to >50 years) and compared these with adjacent native grassland. The study found that woody encroachment of grassland at one site had an insignificant effect on soil and litter carbon stocks. The second site showed a clear decline in combined soil and litter carbon stocks following wattle encroachment. The lowest stock was in the oldest wattle stand, meaning that carbon stocks are still declining after 50 years of encroachment. The results from the two sites demonstrate the importance of considering changes in soil carbon when evaluating ecosystem effects of invasive species.     

Ecological niche modelling of an invasive alien plant and its potential biological control agents

Invasive alien plants are of concern in South Africa. Pompom weed (Campuloclinium macrocephalum) is currently invading the Grassland and Savannah biomes of South Africa and is likely to continue spreading in the southern African sub- region. Two possible biological control agents (Liothrips tractabilis and Cochylis campuloclinium) have been identified for control of pompom weed. We used ecological niche modelling to predict which areas in southern Africa are likely to be suitable for pompom weed and the two potential biological control agents. The overlap between areas predicted to be highly suitable for pompom weed and areas suitable for the biological control agents was assessed. Methods of reducing sampling bias in a data set used for calibrating models were also compared. Finally, the performance of models calibrated using only native range data, only invaded range data and both were also compared. Models indicate that pompom weed is likely to spread across a greater region of southern Africa than it currently occupies, with the Savannah and Grassland biomes being at greatest risk of invasion. Poor overlap was found between the areas predicted to be highly suitable for pompom weed and those areas predicted to be suitable for the biological control agents. However, models of the potential distribution of the biological control agents are interpreted with caution due to the very small sample size of the data set used to calibrate the models. Models calibrated using both native range and invaded range data were found to perform best whilst models calibrated using only native range data performed the worst. There was little difference found between models that were calibrated using spatially reduced (selecting only one record per 30 min grid cell) and randomly reduced (randomly selecting 50% of available records) biased data sets.