Environmental determinants of population divergence in life‐history traits for an invasive species: climate,seasonality and natural enemies

Invasive species cope with novel environments through both phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary change. However, the environmental factors that cause evolutionary divergence in invasive species are poorly understood. We developed predictions for how different life‐history traits, and plasticity in those traits, may respond to environmental gradients in seasonal temperatures, season length and natural enemies. We then tested these predictions in four geographic populations of the invasive cabbage white butterfly (Pieris rapae) from North America. We examined the influence of two rearing temperatures (20 and 26.7 °C) on pupal mass, pupal development time, immune function and fecundity. As predicted, development time was shorter and immune function was greater in populations adapted to longer season length. Also, phenotypic plasticity in development time was greater in regions with shorter growing seasons. Populations differed significantly in mean and plasticity of body mass and fecundity, but these differences were not associated with seasonal temperatures or season length. Our study shows that some life‐history traits, such as development time and immune function, can evolve rapidly in response to latitudinal variation in season length and natural enemies, whereas others traits did not. Our results also indicate that phenotypic plasticity in development time can also diverge rapidly in response to environmental conditions for some traits.     

Multigenerational experimental simulation of climate change on an economically important insect pest

Long‐term multigenerational experimental simulations of climate change on insect pests of economically and socially important crops are crucial to anticipate challenges for feeding humanity in the not‐so‐far future. Mexican bean weevil Zabrotes subfasciatus, is a worldwide pest that attacks the common bean Phaseolus vulgaris seeds, in crops and storage. We designed a long term (i.e., over 10 generations), experimental simulation of climate change by increasing temperature and CO₂ air concentration in controlled conditions according to model predictions for 2100. Higher temperature and CO₂ concentrations favored pest''s egg‐to‐adult development survival, even at high female fecundity. It also induced a reduction of fat storage and increase of protein content but did not alter body size. After 10 generations of simulation, genetic adaptation was detected for total lipid content only, however, other traits showed signs of such process. Future experimental designs and methods similar to ours, are key for studying long‐term effects of climate change through multigenerational experimental designs.     

Effects of Holocene climate change on the historical demography of migrating sharp-shinned hawks (Accipiter striatus velox) in North America

DNA sequences of the mitochondrial control region were analysed from 298 individual sharp-shinned hawks (Accipiter striatus velox) sampled at 12 different migration study sites across North America. The control region proved to be an appropriate genetic marker for identification of continental-scale population genetic structure and for determining the historical demography of population units. These data suggest that sharp-shinned hawks sampled at migration sites in North America are divided into distinct eastern and western groups. The eastern group appears to have recently expanded in response to the retreat of glacial ice at the end of the last glacial maximum. The western group appears to have been strongly effected by the Holocene Hypsithermal dry period, with molecular evidence indicating the most recent expansion following this mid-Holocene climatic event 7000-5000 years before present.     

Local thermal adaptation and local temperature regimes drive the performance of a parasitic helminth under climate change: The case of Marshallagia marshalli from wild ungulates

Across a species' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature-sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free-living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life-cycle-based host–parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location-specific climate-change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location-specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location-specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site-specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections.     

The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche‐modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population‐level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.     

Impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health outcomes: an umbrella review of global evidence

The impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health has recently raised strong concerns. However, a comprehensive overview analyzing the existing evidence while addressing relevant biases is lacking. This umbrella review systematically searched the PubMed/Medline, Scopus and PsycINFO databases (up to June 26, 2023) for any systematic review with meta-analysis investigating the association of air pollution or climate change with mental health outcomes. We used the R metaumbrella package to calculate and stratify the credibility of the evidence according to criteria (i.e., convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak) that address several biases, complemented by sensitivity analyses. We included 32 systematic reviews with meta-analysis that examined 284 individual studies and 237 associations of exposures to air pollution or climate change hazards and mental health outcomes. Most associations (n=195, 82.3%) involved air pollution, while the rest (n=42, 17.7%) regarded climate change hazards (mostly focusing on temperature: n=35, 14.8%). Mental health outcomes in most associations (n=185, 78.1%) involved mental disorders, followed by suicidal behavior (n=29, 12.4%), access to mental health care services (n=9, 3.7%), mental disorders-related symptomatology (n=8, 3.3%), and multiple categories together (n=6, 2.5%). Twelve associations (5.0%) achieved convincing (class I) or highly suggestive (class II) evidence. Regarding exposures to air pollution, there was convincing (class I) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to solvents and a higher incidence of dementia or cognitive impairment (odds ratio, OR=1.139), and highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to some pollutants and higher risk for cognitive disorders (higher incidence of dementia with high vs. low levels of carbon monoxide, CO: OR=1.587; higher incidence of vascular dementia per 1 μg/m³ increase of nitrogen oxides, NO_x: hazard ratio, HR=1.004). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between exposure to airborne particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM₁₀) during the second trimester of pregnancy and the incidence of post-partum depression (OR=1.023 per 1 μg/m³ increase); and for the association between short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and schizophrenia relapse (risk ratio, RR=1.005 and 1.004 per 1 μg/m³ increase, respectively 5 and 7 days after exposure). Regarding climate change hazards, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased temperature and suicide- or mental disorders-related mortality (RR=1.024), suicidal behavior (RR=1.012), and hospital access (i.e., hospitalization or emergency department visits) due to suicidal behavior or mental disorders (RR=1.011) or mental disorders only (RR=1.009) (RR values per 1°C increase). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased apparent temperature (i.e., the temperature equivalent perceived by humans) and suicidal behavior (RR=1.01 per 1°C increase). Finally, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between the temporal proximity of cyclone exposure and severity of symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (r=0.275). Although most of the above associations were small in magnitude, they extend to the entire world population, and are therefore likely to have a substantial impact. This umbrella review classifies and quantifies for the first time the global negative impacts that air pollution and climate change can exert on mental health, identifying evidence-based targets that can inform future research and population health actions.