Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux

Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt‐focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86–93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43–53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt‐based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar‐based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology and disease dynamics. This work provides a foundation for further studies on landscape‐scale population movement and spatiotemporal disease dynamics.     

Transmission or Within-Host Dynamics Driving Pulses of Zoonotic Viruses in Reservoir–Host Populations

Progress in combatting zoonoses that emerge from wildlife is often constrained by limited knowledge of the biology of pathogens within reservoir hosts. We focus on the host–pathogen dynamics of four emerging viruses associated with bats: Hendra, Nipah, Ebola, and Marburg viruses. Spillover of bat infections to humans and domestic animals often coincides with pulses of viral excretion within bat populations, but the mechanisms driving such pulses are unclear. Three hypotheses dominate current research on these emerging bat infections. First, pulses of viral excretion could reflect seasonal epidemic cycles driven by natural variations in population densities and contact rates among hosts. If lifelong immunity follows recovery, viruses may disappear locally but persist globally through migration; in either case, new outbreaks occur once births replenish the susceptible pool. Second, epidemic cycles could be the result of waning immunity within bats, allowing local circulation of viruses through oscillating herd immunity. Third, pulses could be generated by episodic shedding from persistently infected bats through a combination of physiological and ecological factors. The three scenarios can yield similar patterns in epidemiological surveys, but strategies to predict or manage spillover risk resulting from each scenario will be different. We outline an agenda for research on viruses emerging from bats that would allow for differentiation among the scenarios and inform development of evidence-based interventions to limit threats to human and animal health. These concepts and methods are applicable to a wide range of pathogens that affect humans, domestic animals, and wildlife.     

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.     

Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk

Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175–260% (110,000–165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.     

Optimizing noninvasive sampling of a zoonotic bat virus

Outbreaks of infectious viruses resulting from spillover events from bats have brought much attention to bat‐borne zoonoses, which has motivated increased ecological and epidemiological studies on bat populations. Field sampling methods often collect pooled samples of bat excreta from plastic sheets placed under‐roosts. However, positive bias is introduced because multiple individuals may contribute to pooled samples, making studies of viral dynamics difficult. Here, we explore the general issue of bias in spatial sample pooling using Hendra virus in Australian bats as a case study. We assessed the accuracy of different under‐roost sampling designs using generalized additive models and field data from individually captured bats and pooled urine samples. We then used theoretical simulation models of bat density and under‐roost sampling to understand the mechanistic drivers of bias. The most commonly used sampling design estimated viral prevalence 3.2 times higher than individual‐level data, with positive bias 5–7 times higher than other designs due to spatial autocorrelation among sampling sheets and clustering of bats in roosts. Simulation results indicate using a stratified random design to collect 30–40 pooled urine samples from 80 to 100 sheets, each with an area of 0.75–1 m², and would allow estimation of true prevalence with minimum sampling bias and false negatives. These results show that widely used under‐roost sampling techniques are highly sensitive to viral presence, but lack specificity, providing limited information regarding viral dynamics. Improved estimation of true prevalence can be attained with minor changes to existing designs such as reducing sheet size, increasing sheet number, and spreading sheets out within the roost area. Our findings provide insight into how spatial sample pooling is vulnerable to bias for a wide range of systems in disease ecology, where optimal sampling design is influenced by pathogen prevalence, host population density, and patterns of aggregation.     

Reviewing the ecological evidence base for management of emerging tropical zoonoses: Kyasanur Forest Disease in India as a case study

Zoonoses disproportionately affect tropical communities and are associated with human modification and use of ecosystems. Effective management is hampered by poor ecological understanding of disease transmission and often focuses on human vaccination or treatment. Better ecological understanding of multi-vector and multi-host transmission, social and environmental factors altering human exposure, might enable a broader suite of management options. Options may include “ecological interventions” that target vectors or hosts and require good knowledge of underlying transmission processes, which may be more effective, economical, and long lasting than conventional approaches. New frameworks identify the hierarchical series of barriers that a pathogen needs to overcome before human spillover occurs and demonstrate how ecological interventions may strengthen these barriers and complement human-focused disease control. We extend these frameworks for vector-borne zoonoses, focusing on Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFDV), a tick-borne, neglected zoonosis affecting poor forest communities in India, involving complex communities of tick and host species. We identify the hierarchical barriers to pathogen transmission targeted by existing management. We show that existing interventions mainly focus on human barriers (via personal protection and vaccination) or at barriers relating to Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD) vectors (tick control on cattle and at the sites of host (monkey) deaths). We review the validity of existing management guidance for KFD through literature review and interviews with disease managers. Efficacy of interventions was difficult to quantify due to poor empirical understanding of KFDV–vector–host ecology, particularly the role of cattle and monkeys in the disease transmission cycle. Cattle are hypothesised to amplify tick populations. Monkeys may act as sentinels of human infection or are hypothesised to act as amplifying hosts for KFDV, but the spatial scale of risk arising from ticks infected via monkeys versus small mammal reservoirs is unclear. We identified 19 urgent research priorities for refinement of current management strategies or development of ecological interventions targeting vectors and host barriers to prevent disease spillover in the future.     

Biannual birth pulses allow filoviruses to persist in bat populations

Filoviruses Ebolavirus (EBOV) and Marburgvirus (MARV) cause haemorrhagic fevers with high mortality rates, posing significant threats to public health. To understand transmission into human populations, filovirus dynamics within reservoir host populations must be understood. Studies have directly linked filoviruses to bats, but the mechanisms allowing viral persistence within bat populations are poorly understood. Theory suggests seasonal birthing may decrease the probability of pathogen persistence within populations, but data suggest MARV may persist within colonies of seasonally breeding Egyptian fruit bats, Rousettus aegyptiacus. I synthesize available filovirus and bat data in a stochastic compartmental model to explore fundamental questions relating to filovirus ecology: can filoviruses persist within isolated bat colonies; do critical community sizes exist; and how do host–pathogen relationships affect spillover transmission potential? Synchronous annual breeding and shorter incubation periods did not allow filovirus persistence, whereas bi-annual breeding and longer incubation periods, such as reported for Egyptian fruit bats and EBOV in experimental studies, allowed persistence in colony sizes often found in nature. Serological data support the findings, with bats from species with two annual birth pulses more likely to be seropositive (odds ratio (OR) 4.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5–8.7) than those with one, suggesting that biannual birthing is necessary for filovirus persistence.     

Bat fly species richness in Neotropical bats: correlations with host ecology and host brain

Patterns of ectoparasite species richness in mammals have been investigated in various terrestrial mammalian taxa such as primates, ungulates and carnivores. Several ecological or life traits of hosts are expected to explain much of the variability in species richness of parasites. In the present comparative analysis we investigate some determinants of parasite richness in bats, a large and understudied group of flying mammals, and their obligate blood-sucking ectoparasite, streblid bat flies (Diptera). We investigate the effects of host body size, geographical range, group size and roosting ecology on the species richness of bat flies in tropical areas of Venezuela and Peru, where both host and parasite diversities are high. We use the data from a major sampling effort on 138 bat species from nine families. We also investigate potential correlation between bat fly species richness and brain size (corrected for body size) in these tropical bats. We expect a relationship if there is a potential energetic trade-off between costly large brains and parasite-mediated impacts. We show that body size and roosting in cavities are positively correlated with bat fly species richness. No effects of bat range size and group size were observed. Our results also suggest an association between body mass-independent brain size and bat fly species richness. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Feature Selection Methods for Identifying Genetic Determinants of Host Species in RNA Viruses

Despite environmental, social and ecological dependencies, emergence of zoonotic viruses in human populations is clearly also affected by genetic factors which determine cross-species transmission potential. RNA viruses pose an interesting case study given their mutation rates are orders of magnitude higher than any other pathogen – as reflected by the recent emergence of SARS and Influenza for example. Here, we show how feature selection techniques can be used to reliably classify viral sequences by host species, and to identify the crucial minority of host-specific sites in pathogen genomic data. The variability in alleles at those sites can be translated into prediction probabilities that a particular pathogen isolate is adapted to a given host. We illustrate the power of these methods by: 1) identifying the sites explaining SARS coronavirus differences between human, bat and palm civet samples; 2) showing how cross species jumps of rabies virus among bat populations can be readily identified; and 3) de novo identification of likely functional influenza host discriminant markers.     

The ecology of chronic wasting disease in wildlife

Prions are misfolded infectious proteins responsible for a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases termed transmissible spongiform encephalopathy or prion diseases. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is the prion disease with the highest spillover potential, affecting at least seven Cervidae (deer) species. The zoonotic potential of CWD is inconclusive and cannot be ruled out. A risk of infection for other domestic and wildlife species is also plausible. Here, we review the current status of the knowledge with respect to CWD ecology in wildlife. Our current understanding of the geographic distribution of CWD lacks spatial and temporal detail, does not consider the biogeography of infectious diseases, and is largely biased by sampling based on hunters' cooperation and funding available for each region. Limitations of the methods used for data collection suggest that the extent and prevalence of CWD in wildlife is underestimated. If the zoonotic potential of CWD is confirmed in the short term, as suggested by recent results obtained in experimental animal models, there will be limited accurate epidemiological data to inform public health. Research gaps in CWD prion ecology include the need to identify specific biological characteristics of potential CWD reservoir species that better explain susceptibility to spillover, landscape and climate configurations that are suitable for CWD transmission, and the magnitude of sampling bias in our current understanding of CWD distribution and risk. Addressing these research gaps will help anticipate novel areas and species where CWD spillover is expected, which will inform control strategies. From an ecological perspective, control strategies could include assessing restoration of natural predators of CWD reservoirs, ultrasensitive CWD detection in biotic and abiotic reservoirs, and deer density and landscape modification to reduce CWD spread and prevalence.     

Long-Term Survival of an Urban Fruit Bat Seropositive for Ebola and Lagos Bat Viruses

Ebolaviruses (EBOV) (family Filoviridae) cause viral hemorrhagic fevers in humans and non-human primates when they spill over from their wildlife reservoir hosts with case fatality rates of up to 90%. Fruit bats may act as reservoirs of the Filoviridae. The migratory fruit bat, Eidolon helvum, is common across sub-Saharan Africa and lives in large colonies, often situated in cities. We screened sera from 262 E. helvum using indirect fluorescent tests for antibodies against EBOV subtype Zaire. We detected a seropositive bat from Accra, Ghana, and confirmed this using western blot analysis. The bat was also seropositive for Lagos bat virus, a Lyssavirus, by virus neutralization test. The bat was fitted with a radio transmitter and was last detected in Accra 13 months after release post-sampling, demonstrating long-term survival. Antibodies to filoviruses have not been previously demonstrated in E. helvum. Radio-telemetry data demonstrates long-term survival of an individual bat following exposure to viruses of families that can be highly pathogenic to other mammal species. Because E. helvum typically lives in large urban colonies and is a source of bushmeat in some regions, further studies should determine if this species forms a reservoir for EBOV from which spillover infections into the human population may occur.     

An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population‐level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype–environment association analysis, we identify potential climate‐adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.     

Demographic and environmental drivers of metagenomic viral diversity in vampire bats

Viruses infect all forms of life and play critical roles as agents of disease, drivers of biochemical cycles and sources of genetic diversity for their hosts. Our understanding of viral diversity derives primarily from comparisons among host species, precluding insight into how intraspecific variation in host ecology affects viral communities or how predictable viral communities are across populations. Here we test spatial, demographic and environmental hypotheses explaining viral richness and community composition across populations of common vampire bats, which occur in diverse habitats of North, Central and South America. We demonstrate marked variation in viral communities that was not consistently predicted by a null model of declining community similarity with increasing spatial or genetic distances separating populations. We also find no evidence that larger bat colonies host greater viral diversity. Instead, viral diversity follows an elevational gradient, is enriched by juvenile‐biased age structure, and declines with local anthropogenic food resources as measured by livestock density. Our results establish the value of linking the modern influx of metagenomic sequence data with comparative ecology, reveal that snapshot views of viral diversity are unlikely to be representative at the species level, and affirm existing ecological theories that link host ecology not only to single pathogen dynamics but also to viral communities.     

Measures of the Constitutive Immune System Are Linked to Diet and Roosting Habits of Neotropical Bats

Ecological and social factors are central in the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases, thus bearing the potential for shaping a species’ immune functions. Although previous studies demonstrated a link between social factors and the cellular immune system for captive mammals, it is yet poorly understood how ecological factors are connected with the different branches of the immune system in wild populations. Here, we tested how variation in aspects of the constitutive cellular and humoral immune system of free ranging bats is associated with two ecological factors that likely influence the putative risk of species to become infected by parasites and pathogens: diet and shelter. We found that white blood cell counts of 24 syntopic Neotropical bat species varied with the species’ diet and body mass. Bats that included at least partially vertebrates in their diet exhibited the highest white blood cell counts, followed by phytophagous and insectivorous species, which is in agreement with the assumption that the immune system varies with the pathogen transmission risk of a trophic level. The soluble part of the constitutive immune response, assessed by an in vitro bacterial killing assay, decreased with increasing roost permanence. Our results suggest that the ecology is an important factor in the evolution of the immune system in bats and probably also other mammals.     

Mapping Risk of Nipah Virus Transmission from Bats to Humans in Thailand

Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic virus that can pose a serious threat to human and livestock health. Old-world fruit bats (Pteropus spp.) are the natural reservoir hosts for NiV, and Pteropus lylei, Lyle’s flying fox, is an important host of NiV in mainland Southeast Asia. NiV can be transmitted from bats to humans directly via bat-contaminated foods (i.e., date palm sap or fruit) or indirectly via livestock or other intermediate animal hosts. Here we construct risk maps for NiV spillover and transmission by combining ecological niche models for the P. lylei bat reservoir with other spatial data related to direct or indirect NiV transmission (livestock density, foodborne sources including fruit production, and human population). We predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) distribution of P. lylei across Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Our best-fit model predicted that central and western regions of Thailand and small areas in Cambodia are currently the most suitable habitats for P. lylei. However, due to climate change, the species range is predicted to expand to include lower northern, northeastern, eastern, and upper southern Thailand and almost all of Cambodia and lower southern Vietnam. This expansion will create additional risk areas for human infection from P. lylei in Thailand. Our combined predictive risk maps showed that central Thailand, inhabited by 2.3 million people, is considered highly suitable for the zoonotic transmission of NiV from P. lylei. These current and future NiV transmission risk maps can be used to prioritize sites for active virus surveillance and developing awareness and prevention programs to reduce the risk of NiV spillover and spread in Thailand.

     

When are pathogen dynamics likely to reflect host population genetic structure?

Does the structure and connectivity of host populations influence the dynamics and evolution of their pathogens? This topical question is the essence of research investigating the ecology of a Pteropus fruit bat and its zoonotic Nipah virus (NiV) published by Olival et al. in this issue of Molecular Ecology. Questioned less overtly, but nonetheless implicit to the study, is “what are the mechanisms underpinning intraspecific host–pathogen congruence (IHPC) of genetic structure?”. Olival et al. investigated the phylogeographical structure of Pteropus medius and NiV isolates across Bangladesh, from areas inside and outside of the Nipah belt—an area where most human spillover events occur. A high degree of host panmixia was discovered, with some population differentiation east of the Nipah belt. NiV genetic structure was congruent with the host. The authors attributed the panmixia and structuring, respectively, to (a) the highly vagile nature of P. medius, and (b) possible differences between bioregions within and outside the Nipah belt. Other potential explanatory mechanisms were acknowledged, including hybridization and transmission mode. This study makes a valuable contribution to a growing body of literature examining IHPC. This has implications not only for pathogen spillover to humans and domestic animals, but more generally for thinking about the mechanisms that underlie patterns of host and pathogen genetic associations.     

Bridging the gap: Using reservoir ecology and human serosurveys to estimate Lassa virus spillover in West Africa

Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.     

Ecology and Geography of Transmission of Two Bat-Borne Rabies Lineages in Chile

Rabies was known to humans as a disease thousands of years ago. In America, insectivorous bats are natural reservoirs of rabies virus. The bat species Tadarida brasiliensis and Lasiurus cinereus, with their respective, host-specific rabies virus variants AgV4 and AgV6, are the principal rabies reservoirs in Chile. However, little is known about the roles of bat species in the ecology and geographic distribution of the virus. This contribution aims to address a series of questions regarding the ecology of rabies transmission in Chile. Analyzing records from 1985–2011 at the Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile (ISP) and using ecological niche modeling, we address these questions to help in understanding rabies-bat ecological dynamics in South America. We found ecological niche identity between both hosts and both viral variants, indicating that niches of all actors in the system are undifferentiated, although the viruses do not necessarily occupy the full geographic distributions of their hosts. Bat species and rabies viruses share similar niches, and our models had significant predictive power even across unsampled regions; results thus suggest that outbreaks may occur under consistent, stable, and predictable circumstances.     

Unravelling virus community ecology in bats through the integration of metagenomics and community ecology

The spillover of viruses from wildlife into agricultural animals or humans has profound socioeconomic and public health impact. Vampire bats, found throughout South America, feed directly on humans and other animals and are an important reservoir for zoonotic viruses, including rabies virus. This has resulted in considerable effort in understanding both the ecology of bat‐borne viruses and the composition and associated correlates of the structure of entire virus communities in wildlife, particularly in the context of disease control interventions. In a From the Cover article in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Bergner et al. (2019) set out to reveal virus community dynamics in vampire bats by interrogating factors that affect the structure, diversity and richness of these communities. Due to the linkage of metagenomic sequence data with community ecology, this study represents an important advance in the field of virus ecology.