Bridging parametric and nonparametric measures of species interactions unveils new insights of non-equilibrium dynamics

A central theme in ecological research is to understand how species interactions contribute to community dynamics. Species interactions are the basis of parametric (model-driven) and nonparametric (model-free) approaches in theoretical and empirical work. However, despite their different interpretations across these approaches, these measures have occasionally been used interchangeably, limiting our opportunity to use their differences to gain new insights about ecological systems. Here, we revisit two of the most used measures across these approaches: species interactions measured as constant direct effects (typically used in parametric approaches) and local aggregated effects (typically used in nonparametric approaches). We show two fundamental properties of species interactions that cannot be revealed without bridging these definitions. First, we show that the local aggregated intraspecific effect summarizes all potential pathways through which one species impacts itself, which are likely to be negative even without any constant direct self-regulation mechanism. This property has implications for the long-held debate on how communities can be stabilized when little evidence of self-regulation has been found among higher-trophic species. Second, we show that a local aggregated interspecific effect between two species is correlated with the constant direct interspecific effect if and only if the population dynamics do not have any higher-order direct effects. This other property provides a rigorous methodology to detect direct higher-order effects in the field and experimental data. Overall, our findings illustrate a practical route to gain further insights about non-equilibrium ecological dynamics and species interactions.     

扩散模式对高阶相互作用物种共存机制的影响

物种共存机制是群落生态学研究的核心问题之一,但以成对物种间直接相互作用为主的传统共存理论,并未在实际群落中得到普遍证实。近年来,有研究表明,高阶相互作用,即一个物种对另一个物种的直接作用强度受到其他物种的间接影响,在群落竞争过程中的重要性不断得到发展。目前,对高阶相互作用的理论研究还主要集中在非空间理论模型。事实上,群落中个体的空间分布和扩散模式等对种群动态的影响均至关重要。故考虑空间因素,以三物种为例构建空间显式的群落动态模拟,通过引入不同的物种扩散模式,研究高阶相互作用对群落物种共存结果的影响。研究表明:(1)高阶相互作用可以促进也可能抑制物种共存,具体共存结果取决于高阶相互作用的方向、强度和分类;(2)当全部高阶相互作用都存在,且取值为正时,物种共存位置会发生偏移,原本生态位分化下共存的区域不再共存,而在生态位重叠度较高的区域,物种可以在更大范围的适合度差异下共存;(3)扩散模式对高阶相互作用的上述调节机制有一定的影响,且无论正高阶还是负高阶,当种群趋于局部扩散时,高阶相互作用的正向及负向调节效果均有所减弱。以上结论强调了在理论模型和实际保护工作中考虑相互作用网络的重要性,有助于进一步理解物种共存机制,能够为保护生物多样性提供理论依据。     

Biodiversity change under adaptive community dynamics

Compositional change is a ubiquitous response of ecological communities to environmental drivers of global change, but is often regarded as evidence of declining “biotic integrity” relative to historical baselines. Adaptive compositional change, however, is a foundational idea in evolutionary biology, whereby changes in gene frequencies within species boost population-level fitness, allowing populations to persist as the environment changes. Here, we present an analogous idea for ecological communities based on core concepts of fitness and selection. Changes in community composition (i.e., frequencies of genetic differences among species) in response to environmental change should normally increase the average fitnessof community members. We refer to compositional changes that improve the functional match, or “fit,” between organisms' traits and their environment as adaptive community dynamics. Environmental change (e.g., land-use change) commonly reduces the fit between antecedent communities and new environments. Subsequent change in community composition in response to environmental changes, however, should normally increase community-level fit, as the success of at least some constituent species increases. We argue that adaptive community dynamics are likely to improve or maintain ecosystem function (e.g., by maintaining productivity). Adaptive community responses may simultaneously produce some changes that are considered societally desirable (e.g., increased carbon storage) and others that are undesirable (e.g., declines of certain species), just as evolutionary responses within species may be deemed desirable (e.g., evolutionary rescue of an endangered species) or undesirable (e.g., enhanced virulence of an agricultural pest). When assessing possible management interventions, it is important to distinguish between drivers of environmental change (e.g., undesired climate warming) and adaptive community responses, which may generate some desirable outcomes. Efforts to facilitate, accept, or resist ecological change require separate consideration of drivers and responses, and may highlight the need to reconsider preferences for historical baseline communities over communities that are better adapted to the new conditions.     

Regime shifts in exploited marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory

Many marine ecosystems have undergone ‘regime shifts’, i.e. abrupt reorganizations across trophic levels. Establishing whether these constitute shifts between alternative stable states is of key importance for the prospects of ecosystem recovery and for management. We show how mechanisms underlying alternative stable states caused by predator–prey interactions can be revealed in field data, using analyses guided by theory on size-structured community dynamics. This is done by combining data on individual performance (such as growth and fecundity) with information on population size and prey availability. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and their prey in the Baltic Sea as an example to discuss and distinguish two types of mechanisms, ‘cultivation-depensation’ and ‘overcompensation’, that can cause alternative stable states preventing the recovery of overexploited piscivorous fish populations. Importantly, the type of mechanism can be inferred already from changes in the predators'' body growth in different life stages. Our approach can thus be readily applied to monitored stocks of piscivorous fish species, for which this information often can be assembled. Using this tool can help resolve the causes of catastrophic collapses in marine predatory–prey systems and guide fisheries managers on how to successfully restore collapsed piscivorous fish stocks.     

Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series

Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects.     

Forecasting species range dynamics with process‐explicit models: matching methods to applications

Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process–explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process–explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs – regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species – we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process‐explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.     

黄土高原南部麻栎不同群落类型乔木种群结构及演替模拟

由于对黄土高原南部麻栎天然次生林的群落稳定机制缺乏了解,以不同群落类型麻栎天然次生林为研究对象,通过样地监测及时间序列模型预测的方法,重点研究了不同群落类型中重要乔木的种群结构动态,并根据不同群落类型重要乔木种群的年龄结构数据,用时间序列模型预测未来20、30、40和50年的种群发展趋势。结果表明：（1）不同群落类型中各重要乔木种群生存能力均较好,但松栎混交林中的槲栎种群及麻栎纯林中的茶条槭种群生存能力欠佳;（2）除麻栎纯林中杜梨种群及栎阔混交林中槲栎种群,其余乔木种群的存活曲线皆呈Deevey-Ⅲ型;（3）不同麻栎群落类型中各个重要值较高的乔木种群幼龄级个体数量相对丰富,时间序列分析表明,在未来20、30、40和50年中,不同群落类型中各重要乔木种群均可持续发育,并未出现衰退迹象。同时麻栎纯林具有向混交林演替的趋势,说明未来对不同类型麻栎林经营均应以顺应自然演替规律的近自然经营方式为主。研究结果可为促进次生林持续经营及恢复提供理论依据。     

陕西杨凌地区黑光灯下金龟甲种类组成及优势种群发生动态

2011年5～9月,在陕西省杨凌区西北农林科技大学植物保护学院试验站设置黑光灯,系统诱集金龟甲并鉴定种类,分析金龟甲种群的发生动态。结果表明,陕西杨凌地区黑光灯可诱到金龟甲3科17种,从5月上旬至9月上旬均可发生,以6月下旬至7月中旬为发生盛期;优势种类为铜绿丽金龟、赤绒鳃金龟、华北大黑鳃金龟和暗黑鳃金龟,发生盛期分别为6月下旬至7月下旬、7月下旬至8月上旬、7月上旬和6月下旬至7月下旬。     

Understanding the population dynamics of a rare, polyvoltine butterfly

Understanding the effects of endogenous and exogenous factors on population dynamics is essential for assessing the viability of populations, setting recovery goals for endangered species, and evaluating management options. Invertebrates are particularly difficult to monitor and few long-term datasets are available for these species. Additionally, limited resources make it necessary to perform monitoring as efficiently as possible. Here, I use the bivoltine Karner blue butterfly Lycaeides melissa samuelis to demonstrate how analyzing the effects of density-dependent factors and weather on separate life stages can be utilized to understand monitoring data, assess populations and identify critical life-history parameters. My first step was to compare the use of peak numbers as an index of population size with estimates obtained from a more data intensive methodology. Peak numbers proved to be an effective index, and so I utilized this index to analyze 10 and 13 years of monitoring data at two Karner blue butterfly sites in New York, USA. I modeled the effects of weather and density dependence on two distinct population growth rates ( λ ) per year. Analysis with Akaike's Information Criteria indicated that both sites were primarily influenced by density dependence during the summer period and by weather conditions during the winter period. Large population declines occurred in the winter period and were a result of the previous year's dry summer and cool spring weather. I conclude that recovery goals for this endangered species should include a second brood-carrying capacity, mean winter growth rate and multiple sites with independent populations. This study represents a rare, long-term study on the population dynamics of a polyvoltine species. Understanding the population dynamics of polyvoltine species, such as the Karner blue butterfly, will assist in the conservation of many invertebrate and small mammal species.     

长江中下游湿地大型水鸟种群动态和幼鸟比例研究

迁徙水鸟保护对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。开展水鸟种群数量和幼鸟比例监测,对科学评估其种群变化趋势、制定长期保护策略具有重要价值。长江中下游湿地是东亚-澳大利西亚迁徙路线上重要的水鸟越冬区之一。本研究采用野外同步调查等方法对该区域87个湿地的亟需保护和具有代表性的10种大型越冬水鸟,其中雁形目6种,分别是鸿雁Anser cygnoides、豆雁A.fabalis、灰雁A.grus、白额雁A.albifrons、小白额雁A.erythropus和小天鹅Cygnus columbianus;鹤形目4种,分别是白鹤Leucogeranus leucogeranus、白枕鹤Antigone vipio、灰鹤Grus grus和白头鹤G.monacha,进行了长期监测(2003—2019年冬季),并结合相关文献,评估其种群变化趋势、幼鸟比例和死亡率。研究结果如下：(1)2005—2019年3种水鸟(豆雁、灰雁和灰鹤)的种群数量呈上升趋势,7种水鸟(鸿雁、白额雁、小白额雁、小天鹅、白鹤、白枕鹤和白头鹤)种群数量呈下降趋势;(2)种群趋势下降组(N=7)和上升组(N=3)的幼鸟比例均值在2016—2...     

苎麻田灯下金龟子种类组成及优势种群发生动态研究

为了调查苎麻田金龟子的种类及发生规律,于2013年4~9月,在湖北省咸宁市咸安区苎麻科技示范园进行了频振式杀虫灯诱虫试验,系统诱集金龟子并鉴定种类,分析灯下不同金龟子种群动态。结果表明：频振式杀虫灯在苎麻田诱集金龟子类4科10种,以铜绿丽金龟Anomala corpulenta Motschulsky和暗黑鳃金龟Holotrichia parallela Motschulsky为绝对优势种类。金龟子从4月末至9月初均灯下可见,5月中旬至6月上旬为铜绿丽金龟诱集高峰,6月上旬至7月中旬为暗黑腮金龟诱集高峰期。     

Analysis on the insect community dynamics of Dokdo Island,Korea from 1978 to 2015

A comprehensive analysis of the insect community dynamics of Dokdo Island, located at the eastern end of Korean territory, based on the data from the publications from 1978 to 2015 was carried out. A total of 13 orders 166 species of insects was reported to exist in Dokdo by this study. This study is focused on the analysis of the community structure and dynamics of insects in Dokdo Island over the past 40 years. Order Diptera was the only one taxonomic group to be collected in all survey during the period of 1981 to 2015.     

厦门大屿岛三种鹭的种群动态和营巢

对厦门大屿岛白鹭保护区的夜鹭（Nycticorax nycticorax）、白鹭（Eegrtta garzetta）和池鹭（Ardeola bacchus）进行种群动态和营巢观察研究。3种鸟的数量季节变化都很大,5～7月数量高峰期,每月总数都达5000只左右。5月底共5610只,3种鸟的比例分别为50.8%、32.0%和17.2%。4月开始大量在相思树梢上营巢,5月中至6月初巢数多达6000多个。结果表明,3种鸟都是厦门的繁殖鸟和留鸟。     

Species dynamics alter community diversity–biomass stability relationships

The relationship between community diversity and biomass variability remains a crucial ecological topic, with positive, negative and neutral diversity–stability relationships reported from empirical studies. Theory highlights the relative importance of Species–Species or Species–Environment interactions in driving diversity–stability patterns. Much previous work is based on an assumption of identical (stable) species‐level dynamics. We studied ecosystem models incorporating stable, cyclic and more complex species‐level dynamics, with either linear or non‐linear density dependence, within a locally stable community framework. Species composition varies with increasing diversity, interacting with the correlation of species' environmental responses to drive either positive or negative diversity–stability patterns, which theory based on communities with only stable species‐level dynamics fails to predict. Including different dynamics points to new mechanisms that drive the full range of diversity–biomass stability relationships in empirical systems where a wider range of dynamical behaviours are important.     

Population dynamics of some major woody species in relation to long-term succession on the dunes of Voorne

This study is a follow-up of medium-term succession studies based on a vegetation map, scale 1:2 500, of the dunes near Oostvoorne made in 1959 and 1980. The area has a marked zonation with partly very young dunes and inner dunes at a distance of >1 200 m from the beach which are 800 yr old. The overall succession trend is a development from a largely open vegetation (resulting from overgrazing in the 19th century, which ceased 1910), to a scrub/woodland complex with locally dying off of patches of woody vegetation. To understand the processes of change, the age structure of most of the major woody species was determined.Two transects were followed in the area running from the seaward coastal ridge towards the inner dunes. 86 plots were analyzed as to represent the vegetation types distinguished in 1980. In each plot all trees and shrubs were estimated on age by means of increment boring and counting of annual rings. The abundance of seedlings and saplings (<4 yr old) of all woody species was estimated in all plots.The most important woody species are Betula (most B. pendula + some B. pubescens). Crataegus monogyna, Rhamnus catharticus, Sambucus nigra, Alnus glutinosa, Quercus robur, Salix(most S. cinerea + S. aurita and their hybrid S. multinervis). Hippophae rhamnoides, Ligustrum vulgare, and Salix repens, three important early successionals, could not be aged easily.Age distribution curves show a marked stand-still in development in the 1960s. Some species stopped rejuvenating at all. Cumulative development curves for different zones show a clear change in growth rate over the zones for Crataegus and a simultaneous rapid development for Crataegus.Two examples of species sequence within a community type are shown. An explanation of these results includes three main factors: (a) overall changes in the whole area related to disturbance and relaxation, (b) soil moisture and (c) rabbit grazing. Two main events in the development of a population are considered: germination and early development of the seedling, and untimely death of a dominant.Nomenclature follows Arnolds & van der Meijden (1976), Standaardlijst van de Nederlandse flora, 1975. Rijksherbarium, Leiden.Research on population dynamics reported on in this paper was carried out by de Cock & de Wildt as MSc students and supervised by van der Maarel, then all at the Division of Geobotany, University of Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. The preparation of the paper including some new observations and calculations were done by the first author in the framework of the project Population dynamics of woody species in primary successions supported by NFR, the Swedish Natural Science Research Council.     

闽北地区四代三化螟发生动态Fuzzy预测模型研究

根据Fuzzy数学原理和三化螟生物学特性,组建了四代三化螟发生动态综合预测模型经对福建省将乐县16年四代三化螟发生期、发生量回报及1995年的预报,拟合率及正确率均达100％。