Stable aggregate fertility in a time of family change: a decomposition of trends in American fertility, 1970-1999

Population-level birth rates in the United States were largely stable between 1970 and 1999. This stability contrasts with rapid change in marriage rates and fertility timing during the same period. In this article, I use decomposition techniques to analyze this seeming paradox. I decompose the general fertility rate into four components: age distribution, marital status, age-specific nonmarital fertility, and age-specific marital fertility. Absent other changes, declining time spent married would have led to substantial decline in fertility. Several factors combined to counterbalance these changes in marital behavior. Among white women in the 1970s and 1980s, marital fertility rates increased at older ages, consistent with a scenario in which women postponed both marriage and childbearing; increased nonmarital birth rates during this period were not a driving factor in overall fertility trends. Increased nonmarital fertility was more important in compensating for declining time spent married among African American women and among white women in the 1990s.     

Timing of first birth and second birth spacing in Canada

In Canadian society the influence of first birth timing on the subsequent birth interval has been eroded over time, as shown by the Canadian Fertility Survey of 1984. The influence of first birth timing is significant for second births among women married during the baby boom period, but not for those married thereafter. Religiosity, marital status, and place of residence are significant factors in second birth timing in Canada.     

Physical attractiveness: Manipulation by physique and status displays

This study investigated the effects of physique and status ornamentation on the perceived attractiveness of males and females. Physique display was manipulated by altering clothing tightness and skin exposure. Status was manipulated with clothing changes designed to represent dress of different socioeconomic classes. College students provided ratings for opposite-sex models' physical, dating, sexual, and marital attractiveness. All attractiveness measures were enhanced when models wore high-status costumes, primarily when physique was not also displayed. Accentuating the body produced an overall enhancement of attractiveness as a sexual partner but a decrease in attractiveness as a marital partner. Results are primarily discussed in terms of the economic exchange and expectations regarding sexual behavior that are involved in the traditional marriage.     

Long-term trends in marital status mortality differences in The Netherlands 1850-1970

This article describes the long-term trends in marital status mortality differences in the Netherlands using a unique dataset relating to the period 1850-1970. Poisson regression analysis was applied to calculate relative mortality risks by marital status. For two periods, cause-of-death by marital status could be used. Clear differences in mortality by marital status were observed, with strongly increasing advantages for married men and women and a relative increase in the mortality of widowed compared with non-married people. Excess mortality among single and formerly married men and women was visible in many cause-of-death categories, and this became more widespread during the last decades of the nineteenth century. Hypotheses are formulated that might explain why married men and women underwent a stronger decrease in mortality up until the end of World War II.     

Density-dependent migration and human population structure in historical Massachusetts

Studies of population structure often focus on the effects of population size and migration rates on genetic variation. Few studies, however, have investigated the relationship between these two factors. The purpose of this paper is to determine the extent to which migration (and gene flow) is density-dependent (that is, affected by population size) for populations in historical Massachusetts. Data from 4,859 marriage records were analyzed from four populations in north-central Massachusetts during the time period 1741 to 1849. These data were placed into 29 samples defined in terms of population and time cohort. Within each cohort the overall exogamy rate was computed along with three estimates of gene flow based on marital migration: local migration (k), long-distance migration (m), and effective migration rate (me). Three samples show unusually low rates that reflect the history of settlement. Regression analyses were used with the remaining samples, and they show nonlinear density-dependent migration that is unrelated to temporal trends. Migration is highest in samples with small population sizes (less than 800) and large population sizes (greater than 1,600). Migration is lowest in medium-sized populations. Two processes are suggested to explain this curvilinear relationship of migration and population size. In small populations, the lack of suitable potential mates and/or availability of settled land leads to an increase in migration into the population. As population size increases, this migration decreases. After populations reach a certain size, migration increases again, most likely reflecting the economic pull of larger populations. These patterns could act to enhance, or counter, genetic drift, depending on the direction of density dependence.     

Variation in menstrual characters: a study between married and unmarried women of West Bengal

Menstrual cycle is an endocrine function of the ovary, controlled by the hypothalamus-pituitary-gonadal axis. Variation in menstrual characters across different ages, socioeconomic status, place of residence, ethnic groups and so on suggests that the function of hypothalamus-pituitary-gonadal axis is influenced by some internal and external factors. The objectives of the present study are to understand the variation in menstrual characters with respect to differential marital status of women and as well as to find out whether marital status can be a significant predictor of any menstrual character. Data have been collected on a total number of 200 participants (unmarried 100 and married 100) with the help of a well-tested questionnaire/schedule. Unmarried participants who are aged between 18 and 21 years and their closest blood related married kin members who are in the age group 25-35 years, have given birth to at least one child, presently not lactating or family way and are not using any hormonal contraceptives for the last one year period have been selected for the study. Bivariate analysis reveals that significant differences exist between married and unmarried women in menstrual characters like menstrual cycle length, nature of menstrual discharge and presence of premenstrual problems. Multivariate analysis also shows that marital status of a woman is one of the significant predictors of these menstrual characters (except nature of menstrual discharge). It may be concluded that probably a relationship exists between marital status of a woman and some of the menstrual characters.     

The genetic-demographic approach in anthropological research. IX. The spatial structure of Khakass populations]

The rural population of Khakassia is characterized by genetic isolation due to marital traditions and ethnic-territorial subdivisions. The type of Khakass settling limits the choice of a marital partner within the territory occupied by one ethnographic group, preventing an active migration of alleles from one population to another. Formation of local zonal anthropologic type (84% of marital couples) occurs on the territory approximately equal to the area of one administrative district.     

Marital Dissolution and Child Educational Outcomes in San Borja,Bolivia

Serial monogamy is likely an adaptive mating strategy for women when the expected future fitness gains with a different partner are greater than expected future fitness with one’s current partner. Using interview data from more than 400 women in San Borja, Bolivia, discrete-time event history analyses and random effects regression analyses were conducted to examine predictors of marital dissolution, separated by remarriage status, and child educational outcomes. Male income was found to be inversely associated with women’s risk of “divorce and remarriage,” whereas female income is positively associated with women’s risk of “divorce, but not remarriage.” Children of women who divorce and remarry tend to have significantly lower educational outcomes than children of married parents, but women with higher incomes are able to buffer their children from the negative educational outcomes of divorce and remarriage. Counter to predictions, there is no evidence that women with kin in the community have a significant difference in likelihood of divorce or a buffering effect of child outcomes. In conclusion, predictors of divorce differ depending on whether the woman goes on to remarry, suggesting that male income may be a better predictor of a serial monogamy strategy whereas female income predicts marital dissolution only. Thus, women who are relatively autonomous because of greater income may not benefit from remarriage.     

Recent trends and components of change in fertility in Nepal

The objectives of this article are, first, to provide improved estimates of recent fertility levels and trends in Nepal and, second, to analyse the components of fertility change. The analysis is based on data from Nepal's 1996 and 2001 Demographic and Health Surveys. Total fertility rates (TFR) are derived by the own-children method. They incorporate additional adjustments to compensate for displacement of births, and they are compared with estimates derived by the birth-history method. Fertility is estimated not only for the whole country but also by urban/rural residence and by woman's education. The own-children estimates for the whole country indicate that the TFR declined from 4.96 to 4.69 births per woman between the 3-year period preceding the 1996 survey and the 3-year period preceding the 2001 survey. About three-quarters of the decline stems from reductions in age-specific marital fertility rates and about one-quarter from changes in age-specific proportions currently married. Further decomposition of the decline in marital fertility, as measured by births per currently married woman during the 5-year period before each survey, indicates that almost half of the decline in marital fertility is accounted for by changes in population composition by ecological region, development region, urban/rural residence, education, age at first cohabitation with husband, time elapsed since first cohabitation, number of living children at the start of the 5-year period and media exposure. With these variables controlled, another one-third of the decline is accounted for by increase in the proportion sterilized at the start of the 5-year period before each survey.     

Long‐term changes in autumn migration dates at the Strait of Gibraltar reflect population trends of soaring birds

A growing body of work shows that climate change is the cause of a number of directional shifts in the spring phenology of migratory birds. However, changes in autumn phenology are well studied and their consistency across species, as well as their link with population trends, remains uncertain. We investigate changes in the autumn migration dates of 11 species of soaring birds over the Strait of Gibraltar over a 16‐year period. Using models corrected for phylogeny, we assessed whether ecological and morphological characteristics, as well as population trends, account for interspecific shifts in migration times. We recorded different phenological changes in different periods of the migration season and suggest that these differences are due to age‐dependent responses. The variable best predicting advances in migration dates was population trend: species that did not advance their autumn migration dates were those showing a decline in their European breeding populations. We repeated our tests on a dataset representing the migration date of soaring birds across the Pyrenees Mountains and found that population trends at this site also predicted phenological shifts. Our results suggest that flexibility in migratory strategy and population trends may be related, such that different adaptive capacity in migration timing may be more relevant than other ecological traits in determining the conservation status of migratory birds in Europe and perhaps other regions.     

Age of mother and pregnancy outcome in the 1981 Arkansas birth cohort

Higher levels of obstetric risk observed among teenage mothers seem to be an artifact of lower socioeconomic status and inferior access to health care rather than biological immaturity. In a study of matched Arkansas birth-infant death records for 1978, the proxy variables for health access (month care started and number of visits) have the strongest association with each of the dependent variables. The indicators of social status (education, race, and marital status) have a weaker association, and there is virtually no age effect observable once the affects of socioeconomic status and health access have been controlled for. A series of stepwise regression analyses shows that the multiple partial for health access indicators and mortality is 0.036, while the same coefficients for social status indicators and age are 0.001 and 0.006, respectively. Similar results are obtained using the other dependent variables. Health consequences of adolescent pregnancy usually include higher rates of malnutrition and prematurity and lower birth weight. It seems that the elevated morbidity and mortality among newborns delivered by teenagers are not a result of biologic factors. After the effects of lower status and health care access have been removed, the apparent biological disadvantages attributed to teenagers disappear, and, in the case of mortality and birth weight, are replaced by a slight advantage. This advantage is observed through the use of statisitical controls and will not be observed in the population at large unless there are changes in the policies governing access to contraception, abortion, and health care by adolescents, especially those at the youngest ages.     

Duration between marriage and first birth and marital instability

This paper considers whether marital instability varies by the duration between marriage and 1st birth among ever-married white and black American women. Analysis of data from the June 1985 Current Population Survey suggests that the duration between marriage and 1st birth has a generally monotonic relationship with the probability of white women separating or divorcing from their 1st marriage; the relationship has remained relatively constant over time. For blacks, no consistent association is found between marital dissolution and the duration between marriage and 1st birth. Black women having a premarital conception and postmarital birth and those having their 1st birth during their 2nd year of marriage have a similarly high risk of dissolution. Conversely, blacks having their 1st birth 8-12 or 25-42 months after marrying have a low probability of dissolution. Childless women and those with premarital births generally has the greatest probability of marital disruption for whites. Racial differences may occur because blacks view the 1st birth and marriage differently than whites. That is, because blacks are much more likely to have premarital births and to have a shorter duration between marriage and 1st birth, blacks and whites in the same 1st birth interval category may be dissimilar and have different values resulting in a differential effect of the timing of the 1st birth on marital instability by race. Caution is needed when interpreting the pattern of association between delayed childbearing (and to a lesser extent, births occuring a few years after marriage) and marital instability. Results for whites were similar at each marriage duration and it is assumed delayed childbearing was not a result of marital instability. Marital instability was expected to have its strongest effect on the timing of the 1st birth during the 1st years of marriage. Marital instability may be partially responsible for the delaying of childbearing among blacks. However, blacks who delay but are married at 1st birth have a relatively low risk of separating or divorcing.     

Marriage,gender and obesity in later life

A large body of literature argues that marriage promotes health and increases longevity. But do these benefits extend to maintaining a healthy body weight, as the economic theory of health investment suggests they should? They do not. Using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I find that entry into marriage among both men and women aged 51–70 is associated with weight gain and exit from marriage with weight loss. I evaluate three additional theories with respect to the cross-sectional and longitudinal variation in the data. First, it may be that a broader set of shared risk factors (such as social obligations regarding meals) raises body mass for married couples. However, the shared risk factor model predicts that the intra-couple correlation should increase with respect to marital duration. Instead, it declines. Second, scholars have recently promoted a “crisis” model of marriage in which marital transitions, not marital status, determine differences in body mass. The crisis model is consistent with short-term effects seen for divorce, but not for the persistent weight gains associated with marriage or the persistent weight loss following widowhood. And transition models, in general, cannot explain significant cross-sectional differences across marital states in a population that is no longer experiencing many transitions, nor can it account for the prominent gender differences (in late middle-age, the heaviest group is unmarried women and the lightest are unmarried men). Third, I argue that pressures of the marriage market, in combination with gendered preferences regarding partner BMI, can account for all the longitudinal and cross-sectional patterns found in the data.     

Measuring the Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy Roll-Out on Population Level Fertility in Three African Countries

Background

UNAIDS official estimates of national HIV prevalence are based on trends observed in antenatal clinic surveillance, after adjustment for the reduced fertility of HIV positive women. Uptake of ART may impact on the fertility of HIV positive women, implying a need to re-estimate the adjustment factors used in these calculations. We analyse the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level fertility in Southern and East Africa, comparing trends in HIV infected women against the secular trends observed in uninfected women.

Methods

We used fertility data from four community-based demographic and HIV surveillance sites: Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka and Rakai (Uganda) and uMkhanyakude (South Africa). All births to women aged 15–44 years old were included in the analysis, classified by mother’s age and HIV status at time of birth, and ART availability in the community. Calendar time period of data availability relative to ART Introduction varied across the sites, from 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 9 years after. Calendar time was classified according to ART availability, grouped into pre ART, ART introduction (available in at least one health facility serving study site) and ART available (available in all designated health facilities serving study site). We used Poisson regression to calculate age adjusted fertility rate ratios over time by HIV status, and investigated the interaction between ART period and HIV status to ascertain whether trends over time were different for HIV positive and negative women.

Results

Age-adjusted fertility rates declined significantly over time for HIV negative women in all four studies. However HIV positives either had no change in fertility (Masaka, Rakai) or experienced a significant increase over the same period (Kisesa, uMkhanyakude). HIV positive fertility was significantly lower than negative in both the pre ART period (age adjusted fertility rate ratio (FRR) range 0.51 95%CI 0.42–0.61 to 0.73 95%CI 0.64–0.83) and when ART was widely available (FRR range 0.57 95%CI 0.52–0.62 to 0.83 95%CI 0.78–0.87), but the difference has narrowed. The interaction terms describing the difference in trends between HIV positives and negatives are generally significant.

Conclusions

Differences in fertility between HIV positive and HIV negative women are narrowing over time as ART becomes more widely available in these communities. Routine adjustment of ANC data for estimating national HIV prevalence will need to allow for the impact of treatment.     

Survey of 3,000 Unwanted Pregnancies

A survey of 3,000 unwanted pregnancies disclosed two main populations differing in age, marital status, and contraceptive practice. Failure to use contraception accounted for two-thirds of the pregnancies. More than half of the patients were married women or single women in stable relationships, but many single women faced their predicament alone, without help from partner or parent.Some evidence is given of valid needs which could not be met by existing N.H.S. facilities.     

Voluntary sterilisation among Canadian women

Using data from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey, proportional hazards modelling was employed to determine factors associated with the likelihood of voluntary sterilisation among 5315 women of childbearing age, and the trends in timing and differences in the likelihood associated with different age cohorts. Multivariate analysis suggests that educational attainment, parity and duration since last birth at the time of sterilisation, religious commitment, province of residence and marital status at the time of sterilisation, are all important predictors. Education and parity attainment emerged as the best predictors of the timing of voluntary sterilisation in all age cohorts, but the contribution of other covariates varies between cohorts.     

Patterns of phenological changes in migratory birds

The phenology of avian migration appears to be changing in response to climate change. Seemingly contradictory differences in the timing of these annual cycles have been reported in published studies. We show that differences between studies in the choice of songbird species, as well as in the measurements of migration phenology, can explain most of the reported differences. Furthermore, while earlier spring arrival is evident across these studies, trends in timing of departure show large variation between species and according to individual timing of migration (early-arriving vs. late-departing individuals). Much of the variation in departure between species could be explained by each species’ migratory status. We present a detailed analysis of migrants recorded at a Danish migration site, and reveal that although shifts in migration timing can be demonstrated for almost all species, these shifts are either most pronounced in the early arriving/late departing individuals or the changes are similar. Thus most individuals do not seem to change their breeding-area residence time (BART). As BART is likely to reflect ecologically important factors, e.g. number of clutches, we expect that only small effects have been exerted on the breeding ecology of the studied species in the time period investigated. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

A demographic dilemma: The Parsis of Karachi

Abstract

Own‐children fertility estimates derived from the Korean censuses of 1966 and 1970 indicate that the total fertility rate fell by more than half a child in the intercensal period, from an estimated 4,837 to 4,257 per thousand. A compositional analysis shows that about one‐fourth of the fall can be attributed to changes in population composition by urban‐rural residence, education, marital status, and parity, and about three‐fourths to changes in age‐specific birth rates cross‐classified by these same characteristics. The own‐children method is used to generate the finely specified birth rates necessary for this analysis, and a decomposition technique used previously by one of the authors is extended to incorporate the unusually large number of compositional variables.     

Children's health and their mothers’ risk of divorce or separation

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine how children's health conditions are related to their mothers’ risk of divorce or separation. The study is based on data from over 7,000 children born to once‐married mothers identified in the 1988 Child Health Supplement to the National Health Interview Survey. The effects of 15 childhood health conditions on the mothers’ risk of divorce are estimated with Cox's proportional hazard models. Controlling for demographic, marital, and reproductive measures, we find that mothers’ prospects for divorce are affected both positively or negatively by their children's health status, depending on the type of childhood condition and, in the case of low birth weight children, timing within the marriage. Women whose children have congenital heart disease, cerebral palsy, are blind, or had low birth weight appear to have higher risks of marital disruption than mothers of healthy children. In contrast, mothers whose children have migraines, learning disabilities, respiratory allergies, missing/deformed digits or limbs, or asthma have somewhat lower rates of divorce.