Spatial genetic structure in two congeneric epiphytes with different dispersal strategies analysed by three different methods

Three different approaches were used to assess the kinship structure of two epiphytic bryophytes, Orthotrichum speciosum and O. obtusifolium, that have different dispersal strategies. The two species were sampled in a 200 ha landscape where species occurrence and host trees had been mapped previously. Local environmental conditions at sampled trees were recorded and kinship between individuals was calculated based on amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)-marker data. We did not detect any association between AFLP-markers and investigated environmental conditions. In both species, significant kinship coefficients were found between individuals up to 300-350 m apart which shows that both species have a restricted dispersal range. The spatial kinship structure was detected with both autocorrelation analysis and generalized additive models (GAMs), but linear regression failed to detect any structure in O. speciosum. Although the dioecious O. obtusifolium is currently the more common species it may, none the less, due to its restricted dispersal range and reproduction mode, become threatened in the future by current silvicultural practices which enhance the distance between host trees and decrease their life span. Finally, GAMs seem most appropriate for analysing spatial genetic structure because the effects of local environmental conditions and spatial structure can be analysed simultaneously, no assumption of a parametric form between kinship coefficient and distance is required, and spatial data resolution is not lost in the arbitrary choice of distance classes characterizing autocorrelation analysis.     

Modelling epiphyte metapopulation dynamics in a dynamic forest landscape

We combine simulations with spatial statistics to estimate the parameters of a metapopulation model for the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria specializing on aspen ( Populus tremula ) and goat willow ( Salix caprea ) in Fennoscandian boreal old-growth forests. We estimated the parameters of a forest landscape model (FIN-LANDIS) by repeatedly running simulations and selecting the set of parameters for tree ecology and fire regime that reproduced empirical host tree density and spatial patterns. Second, we tested which variables were important in epiphyte colonization and estimated the dispersal kernel. Third, we run a metapopulation model for the lichen across the estimated landscape scenarios and selected values for the remaining parameters that reproduced the empirical patterns of epiphyte occurrence. There was little variation in predicted dynamics, occupancy and spatial patterns between replicate metapopulation simulations. However, more data would be required for accurately estimating the parameters of FIN-LANDIS primarily because of the inherent stochasticity in large scale forest fires. Following the beginning of fire suppression in the study area 150 years ago, the model predicts that lichen occupancy first increases but subsequently declines. The lower occupancy in the past than at present is explained by high rate of tree destruction by fires, which increases local extinction rate in patch-tracking metapopulations. In the absence of fires, the occupancy increases because of lower extinction rate, but without forest fires or alternative means of host tree regeneration, the lichen is predicted to go ultimately extinct because of severely reduced density of aspen and goat willow.     

Estimates of connectivity reveal non-equilibrium epiphyte occurrence patterns almost 180 years after habitat decline

Habitat loss is a major cause of species decline and extinction. Immediately after habitat loss, species occurrences are not in equilibrium with the new landscape and more closely reflect the previous landscape structure. Species with slow colonisation–extinction dynamics may display long time-lags before reaching a new equilibrium. We investigated the importance of connectivity to current and historical dispersal sources with the aim of explaining the occurrence pattern of epiphytic lichens with different traits among 104 old oaks. We used oak survey data collected from 1830 and 2009 for a Swedish landscape where oak densities declined drastically shortly after 1830. We fitted a commonly used connectivity measure and estimated the confidence interval for the spatial scale parameter. Small differences in the spatial scale parameter resulted in large differences in model fit. Connectivity to trees in 1830 better explained the occurrence of three of the four species compared to the connectivity in 2009. The explanatory power of the historical landscape structure was highest for the species with traits that may result in a low colonisation rate—both a narrow niche (here few suitable trees) and large dispersal propagules. The results suggest that oak-dependent epiphytic lichens have not reached equilibrium with the spatial landscape structure 180 years after the drastic decline in habitat. For the long-term persistence of epiphytes associated with old trees, conservation efforts should focus on (1) protecting and restoring stands where specialised species with large dispersal propagules (i.e. with low colonisation rates) occur today and (2) promoting tree regeneration in their near vicinity.     

How does intraspecific density regulation influence metapopulation synchrony and persistence?

Intraspecific density regulation influences the synchronization of local population dynamics through dispersal. Spatial synchrony in turn may jeopardize metapopulation persistence. Joining results from previous studies suggests that spatial synchrony is highest at moderate over-compensation and is low at compensating and at very strong over-compensating density regulation. We scrutinize this supposition of a unimodal relationship using a process-based metapopulation model with explicit local population dynamics. We extend the usually studied range of density regulation to under-compensation and analyse resulting metapopulation persistence. We find peaks of spatial synchrony not only at over-compensatory but also under-compensatory density regulation and show that effects of local density compensation on synchrony follow a bimodal rather than unimodal relationship. Persistence of metapopulations however, shows a unimodal relationship with a broad plateau of high persistence from compensatory to over-compensatory density regulation. This range of high persistence comprises both levels of low and high spatial synchrony. Thus, not synchrony alone jeopardizes metapopulation persistence, but only in interplay with high local extinction risk. The functional forms of the relations of density compensation with spatial synchrony and persistence are robust to increases in dispersal mortality, landscape dynamics, or density dependence of dispersal. However, with each of these increases the maxima of spatial synchrony and persistence shift to higher over-compensation and levels of synchrony are reduced. Overall, for over-compensation high landscape connectivity has negative effects while for under-compensation connectivity affects persistence positively. This emphasizes the importance of species life-history traits for management decisions with regard to landscape connectivity: while dispersal corridors are essential for species with under-compensatory density regulation, they may have detrimental effects for endangered species with over-compensation.     

Exact asymptotic analysis for metapopulation dynamics on correlated dynamic landscapes

We compute the mean patch occupancy for a stochastic, spatially explicit patch-occupancy metapopulation model on a dynamic, correlated landscape, using a mathematically exact perturbation expansion about a mean-field limit that applies when dispersal range is large. Stochasticity in the metapopulation and landscape dynamics gives negative contributions to patch occupancy, the former being more important at high occupancy and the latter at low occupancy. Positive landscape correlations always benefit the metapopulation, but are only significant when the correlation length is comparable to, or smaller than, the dispersal range. Our analytical results allow us to consider the importance of spatial kernels in all generality. We find that the shape of the landscape correlation function is typically unimportant, and that the variance is overwhelmingly the most important property of the colonisation kernel. However, short-range singularities in either the colonisation kernel or landscape correlations can give rise to qualitatively different behaviour.     

Metapopulation persistence in dynamic landscapes: the role of dispersal distance

Species associated with transient habitats need efficient dispersal strategies to ensure their regional survival. Using a spatially explicit metapopulation model, we studied the effect of the dispersal range on the persistence of a metapopulation as a function of the local population and landscape dynamics (including habitat patch destruction and subsequent regeneration). Our results show that the impact of the dispersal range depends on both the local population and patch growth. This is due to interactions between dispersal and the dynamics of patches and populations via the number of potential dispersers. In general, long-range dispersal had a positive effect on persistence in a dynamic landscape compared to short-range dispersal. Long-range dispersal increases the number of couplings between the patches and thus the colonisation of regenerated patches. However, long-range dispersal lost its advantage for long-term persistence when the number of potential dispersers was low due to small population growth rates and/or small patch growth rates. Its advantage also disappeared with complex local population dynamics and in a landscape with clumped patch distribution.     

Effects of aerial dispersal, habitat specialisation, and landscape structure on spider distribution across fragmented grey dunes

Species distribution patterns have been explained by Hutchinson's niche theory, metapopulation theory and source-sink theory. Empirical verification of this framework, however, remains surprisingly scant. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that landscape characteristics (patch size and connectivity), aerial dispersal ability and niche breadth interact in explaining distribution patterns of 29 spider species inhabiting fragmented grey dunes. Distribution patterns only depended on aerial dispersal potential, and the interaction between patch connectivity and area. Niche breadth, measured as the degree of habitat specialisation in the total coastal dune system, did not contribute to the observed distribution patterns. Additional variation in patch occupancy frequency was strongly species-dependent and was determined by different responses to the degree of patch connectivity for ballooning dispersal. Results from this study suggest that dispersal ability largely affects our perception of a species "fundamental niche", and that source-sink and metapopulation dynamics may have a major impact on the distribution of species. From a conservation point of view, specialised (and hence intrinsically rare) species can be predicted to become rarer if fragmentation increases and connectivity decreases. This study is, to our knowledge, one of the few linking species distribution (and not patch occupancy, species diversity or richness) to landscape ecological (patch connectivity and area) and auto-ecological (niche breadth, dispersal potential) features.     

Effect of habitat fragmentation on dispersal in the butterfly Proclossiana eunomia

Comparison of dispersal rates of the bog fritillary butterfly between continuous and fragmented landscapes indicates that between patch dispersal is significantly lower in the fragmented landscape, while population densities are of the same order of magnitude. Analyses of the dynamics of the suitable habitat for the butterfly in the fragmented landscape reveal a severe, non linear increase in spatial isolation of patches over a time period of 30 years (i.e. 30 butterfly generations), but simulations of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics using a structured population model show that the lower dispersal rates in the fragmented landscape are far above the critical threshold leading to metapopulation extinction. These results indicate that changes in individual behaviour leading to the decrease of dispersal rates in the fragmented landscape were rapidly selected for when patch spatial isolation increased. The evidence of such an adaptive answer to habitat fragmentation suggests that dispersal mortality is a key factor for metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes. We emphasise that landscape spatial configuration and patch isolation have to be taken into account in the debate about large-scale conservation strategies.     

Genetic influences on social dominance: cow wars

Analyzing population dynamics in changing habitats is a prerequisite for population dynamics forecasting. The recent development of metapopulation modeling allows the estimation of dispersal kernels based on the colonization pattern but the accuracy of these estimates compared with direct estimates of the seed dispersal kernel has rarely been assessed. In this study, we used recent genetic methods based on parentage analysis (spatially explicit mating models) to estimate seed and pollen dispersal kernels as well as seed and pollen immigration in fragmented urban populations of the plant species Crepis sancta with contrasting patch dynamics. Using two independent networks, we documented substantial seed immigration and a highly restricted dispersal kernel. Moreover, immigration heterogeneity among networks was consistent with previously reported metapopulation dynamics, showing that colonization was mainly due to external colonization in the first network (propagule rain) and local colonization in the second network. We concluded that the differences in urban patch dynamics are mainly due to seed immigration heterogeneity, highlighting the importance of external population source in the spatio-temporal dynamics of plants in a fragmented landscape. The results show that indirect and direct methods were qualitatively consistent, providing a proper interpretation of indirect estimates. This study provides attempts to link genetic and demographic methods and show that patch occupancy models may provide simple methods for analyzing population dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes in the context of global change.     

Distribution pattern of the epiphyte Neckera pennata on three spatial scales – importance of past landscape structure, connectivity and local conditions

We tested which factors explain the distribution pattern of the epiphytic moss Neckera pennata on three spatial scales using the framework of generalized linear models. First, we tested which factors explained its occurrence in forest stands in a 2500 ha landscape. At this scale, we also tested the effect of the historic landscape structure. We recorded its occurrence in all suitable stands. The occurrence probability increased with increasing present quantity of Acer platanoides, and with increasing present and past quantity of Fraxinus excelsior. The probability also increased with increasing connectivity to occupied stands. However, the connectivity to stands present in 1977 (recorded from infra‐red aerial photographs) explained more of the variation. This suggests that the regional metapopulation size of N. pennata has decreased during the past decades, and that its present distribution pattern reflects the age of the remaining stands, and the distribution of past dispersal sources in the landscape. Second, we tested which factors explained the occurrence and abundance on individual trees in three forest stands. Neckera pennata mainly occurred on Acer and Fraxinus stems. The most important variable in explaining occurrence probability was connectivity to surrounding occupied trees, which probably reflects the restricted dispersal range in this species. The abundance on occupied trees was also explained by this variable. The occurrence probability and abundance also increased with increasing tree diameter, probably reflecting the time that a tree has been available for colonization and the time since colonization, respectively. The occurrence probability and abundance furthermore decreased on strongly leaning (and deteriorating) trees. The occurrence probability increased with increasing bark roughness, probably reflecting increasing suitability regarding bark chemistry and moisture. Third, we tested its vertical distribution on occupied trees. The main distribution was below 1.6 m.     

局域种群的Allee效应和集合种群的同步性

从包含Allee效应的局域种群出发,建立了耦合映像格子模型,即集合种群模型.通过分析和计算机模拟表明:(1)当局域种群受到Allee效应强度较大时,集合种群同步灭绝;(2)而当Allee效应强度相对较弱时,通过稳定局域种群动态(减少混沌)使得集合种群发生同步波动,而这种同步波动能够增加集合种群的灭绝风险;(3)斑块间的连接程度对集合种群同步波动的发生有很大的影响,适当的破碎化有利于集合种群的续存.全局迁移和Allee效应结合起来增加了集合种群同步波动的可能,从而增加集合种群的灭绝风险.这些结果对理解同步性的机理、利用同步机理来制定物种保护策略和害虫防治都有重要的意义.     

Unravelling seed dispersal through fragmented landscapes: Frugivore species operate unevenly as mobile links

Seed dispersal constitutes a pivotal process in an increasingly fragmented world, promoting population connectivity, colonization and range shifts in plants. Unveiling how multiple frugivore species disperse seeds through fragmented landscapes, operating as mobile links, has remained elusive owing to methodological constraints for monitoring seed dispersal events. We combine for the first time DNA barcoding and DNA microsatellites to identify, respectively, the frugivore species and the source trees of animal‐dispersed seeds in forest and matrix of a fragmented landscape. We found a high functional complementarity among frugivores in terms of seed deposition at different habitats (forest vs. matrix), perches (isolated trees vs. electricity pylons) and matrix sectors (close vs. far from the forest edge), cross‐habitat seed fluxes, dispersal distances and canopy‐cover dependency. Seed rain at the landscape‐scale, from forest to distant matrix sectors, was characterized by turnovers in the contribution of frugivores and source‐tree habitats: open‐habitat frugivores replaced forest‐dependent frugivores, whereas matrix trees replaced forest trees. As a result of such turnovers, the magnitude of seed rain was evenly distributed between habitats and landscape sectors. We thus uncover key mechanisms behind “biodiversity–ecosystem function” relationships, in this case, the relationship between frugivore diversity and landscape‐scale seed dispersal. Our results reveal the importance of open‐habitat frugivores, isolated fruiting trees and anthropogenic perching sites (infrastructures) in generating seed dispersal events far from the remnant forest, highlighting their potential to drive regeneration dynamics through the matrix. This study helps to broaden the “mobile‐link” concept in seed dispersal studies by providing a comprehensive and integrative view of the way in which multiple frugivore species disseminate seeds through real‐world landscapes.     

Classical metapopulation dynamics and eco‐evolutionary feedbacks in dendritic networks

Eco‐evolutionary dynamics are now recognized to be highly relevant for population and community dynamics. However, the impact of evolutionary dynamics on spatial patterns, such as the occurrence of classical metapopulation dynamics, is less well appreciated. Here, we analyse the evolutionary consequences of spatial network connectivity and topology for dispersal strategies and quantify the eco‐evolutionary feedback in terms of altered classical metapopulation dynamics. We find that network properties, such as topology and connectivity, lead to predictable spatio‐temporal correlations in fitness expectations. These spatio‐temporally stable fitness patterns heavily impact evolutionarily stable dispersal strategies and lead to eco‐evolutionary feedbacks on landscape level metrics, such as the number of occupied patches, the number of extinctions and recolonizations as well as metapopulation extinction risk and genetic structure. Our model predicts that classical metapopulation dynamics are more likely to occur in dendritic networks, and especially in riverine systems, compared to other types of landscape configurations. As it remains debated whether classical metapopulation dynamics are likely to occur in nature at all, our work provides an important conceptual advance for understanding the occurrence of classical metapopulation dynamics which has implications for conservation and management of spatially structured populations.     

Spatio‐temporal dynamics of density‐dependent dispersal during a population colonisation

Predicting population colonisations requires understanding how spatio‐temporal changes in density affect dispersal. Density can inform on fitness prospects, acting as a cue for either habitat quality, or competition over resources. However, when escaping competition, high local density should only increase emigration if lower‐density patches are available elsewhere. Few empirical studies on dispersal have considered the effects of density at the local and landscape scale simultaneously. To explore this, we analyze 5 years of individual‐based data from an experimental introduction of wild guppies Poecilia reticulata. Natal dispersal showed a decrease in local density dependence as density at the landscape level increased. Landscape density did not affect dispersal among adults, but local density‐dependent dispersal switched from negative (conspecific attraction) to positive (conspecific avoidance), as the colonisation progressed. This study demonstrates that densities at various scales interact to determine dispersal, and suggests that dispersal trade‐offs differ across life stages.     

Simulation modeling reveals the evolutionary role of landscape shape and species dispersal on genetic variation within a metapopulation

Different shapes of landscape boundaries can affect the habitat networks within them and consequently the spatial genetic-patterns of a metapopulation. In this study, we used a mechanistic framework to evaluate the effects of landscape shape, through watershed elongation, on genetic divergence among populations at the metapopulation scale. Empirical genetic data from four, sympatric stream-macroinvertebrates having aerial adults were collected from streams in Japan to determine the roles of species-specific dispersal strategies on metapopulation genetics. Simulation results indicated that watershed elongation allows the formation of river networks with fewer branches and larger topographic constraints. This results in decreased interpopulation connectivity but a lower level of spatial isolation of distal populations (e.g. those found in headwaters) occurring in the landscapes examined. Distal populations had higher genetic divergence when their downstream-biased dispersal (relative to upstream- and/or overland-biased dispersal) was high. This underscores the importance of distal populations influencing genetic divergence at the metapopulation scale for species having downstream-biased dispersal. In turn, lower genetic divergence was observed under watershed elongation when the genetic isolation of distal populations was decreased in such species. This strong association between landscape shape and evolutionary processes highlights the importance of natural, spatial architecture in assessing the effectiveness of conservation and management strategies.     

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue–effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.     

Spatial pattern in the occurrence of the lichen Lobaria pulmonaria in managed and virgin boreal forests

Two populations of the lichen Lobaria pulmonaria. growing on aspens and goat willows in 12 and 20 km² study areas of boreal forest in Finland, were surveyed thoroughly to investigate the factors influencing the spatial distribution of the lichen. In one study area, where forestry has been intensive and old-growth forest is highly fragmented, L, pulmonaria was sparse and grew mostly on willows. In contrast, a large and continuous virgin forest area supported a higher incidence of L. pulmonaria. with the lichen being common on both aspens and willows. In both study areas, the distributions of aspen and willow were clumped over the scales of 100-1000 m. The spatial pattern of L pulmonaria was more clumped in the managed forest than in the virgin forest. The reduced incidence of the lichen on aspens in the managed area was attributed to a disruption of habitat continuity and small average tree size. There was no comparable reduction in the incidence on willows, probably because the willow had a very aggregated distribution in the managed area, which probably facililated local colonization of the lichen. Presence of the lichen was significantly related to size-corrected local density of aspen and willow trees as well as to spatial connectivity to neighboring lichen-occupied trees.     

Habitat quality of source patches and connectivity in fragmented landscapes

Because spatial connectivity is critical to dispersal success and persistence of species in highly fragmented landscapes, the way that we envision and measure connectivity is consequential for biodiversity conservation. Connectivity metrics used for predictive modeling of spatial turnover and patch occupancy for metapopulations, such as with Incidence Function Models (IFM), incorporate distances to and sizes of possible source populations. Here, our focus is on whether habitat quality of source patches also is considered in these connectivity metrics. We propose that effective areas (weighted by habitat quality) of source patches should be better surrogates for population size and dispersal potential compared to unadjusted patch areas. Our review of a representative sample of the literature revealed that only 12.5% of studies incorporated habitat quality of source patches into IFM-type connectivity metrics. Quality of source patches generally was not taken into account in studies even if habitat quality of focal patches was included in analyses. We provide an empirical example for a metapopulation of a rare wetland species, the round-tailed muskrat (Neofiber alleni), demonstrating that a connectivity metric based on effective areas of source patches better predicts patch colonization and occupancy than a metric that used simple patch areas. The ongoing integration of landscape ecology and metapopulation dynamics could be hastened by incorporating habitat quality of source patches into spatial connectivity metrics applied to species conservation in fragmented landscapes.     

Spatial genetic structure in a metapopulation of the land snail Cepaea nemoralis (Gastropoda: Helicidae)

Habitat fragmentation is a major force affecting demography and genetic structure of wild populations, especially in agricultural landscapes. The land snail Cepaea nemoralis (L.) was selected to investigate the impact of habitat fragmentation on the spatial genetic structure of an organism with limited dispersal ability. Genetic and morphological patterns were investigated at a local scale of a 500 m transect and a mesoscale of 4 x 4 km in a fragmented agricultural landscape while accounting for variation in the landscape using least-cost models. Analysis of microsatellite loci using expected heterozygosity (HE), pairwise genetic distance (FST/1-FST) and spatial autocorrelograms (Moran's I) as well as shell characteristics revealed spatial structuring at both scales and provided evidence for a metapopulation structure. Genetic diversity was related to morphological diversity regardless of landscape properties. This pointed to bottlenecks caused by founder effects after (re)colonization. Our study suggests that metapopulation structure depended on both landscape features and the shape of the dispersal function. A range of genetic spatial autocorrelation up to 80 m at the local scale and up to 800 m at the mesoscale indicated leptokurtic dispersal patterns. The metapopulation dynamics of C. nemoralis resulted in a patchwork of interconnected, spatially structured subpopulations. They were shaped by gene flow which was affected by landscape features, the dispersal function and an increasing role of genetic drift with distance.     

Spatial pattern of the threatened epiphytic bryophyte Neckera pennata at two scales in a fragmented boreal forest

The spatial pattern and occurrence of a threatened bryophyte, Neckera pennata. were studied in relation to the abundance and pattern of suitable substrate trees at two spatial scales: 1) in a 4 x 4 km fraction of fragmented, mostly managed southern boreal forest landscape, and 2) in an old-growth forest stand within this landscape, with abundant occurrence of suitable habitats. To explore in detail the spatial clustering of N. pennata at the forest stand scale, we applied a second order point process analysis based on the Ripley's K-function for binary point patterns, Neckera pennata proved to be a rare species in the studied landscape: it was found only on 31 Populus tremula trees. At the landscape scale, the distribution of the species was highly aggregated: the species occurred only within a 60 ha old-growth forest patch in the whole area. At the forest stand scale, N. pennata proved to be a widespread, randomly distributed species without any tendency towards aggregation. It was found on 19 Populus trees, which was only 1.5% of the total 1253 potential substrate trees within the inventory area. The species showed a statistically significant preference towards large trees. The future of the species in the study area is unclear due to 1) the very low population density and 2) the lack of regeneration of Populus within the protected old-growth forest area hosting the remaining population.