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1.
The Brookings Institute analysis rate both Lexington and Louisville, Kentucky (USA) as two of the nation's largest carbon emitters. This high carbon footprint is largely due to the fact that 95% of electricity is produced from coal. Kentucky has limited options for electric power production from low carbon sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and hydroelectric. Other states (TN, IN, OH, WV, and IL) in this region are similarly limited in renewable energy capacity. Bioenergy agriculture could account for a proportion of renewable energy needs, but to what extent is unclear. Herein, we found that abandoned agricultural land, not including land that is in fallow or crop rotation, aquatic ecosystems, nor plant-life that had passed through secondary ecological succession totaled 1.9 Mha and abandoned mine-land totaled 0.3 Mha, which combined accounted for 21% of Kentucky's land mass. A life cycle assessment was performed based on local yield and agronomic data for native grass bioenergy agriculture. These data showed that utilizing Kentucky's marginal land to grow native C 4 grasses for cellulosic ethanol and bioelectricity may account for up to 13.3% and 17.2% of the states 2 trillion MJ energy consumption and reduce green house gas emissions by 68% relative to gasoline.  相似文献   

2.
Large areas of the tropics and subtropics are too arid or degraded to support food crops, but Agave species may be suitable for biofuel production in these regions. We review the potential of Agave species as biofuel feedstocks in the context of ecophysiology, agronomy, and land availability for this genus globally. Reported dry biomass yields of Agave spp., when annualized, range from <1 to 34 Mg ha?1 yr?1 without irrigation, depending on species and location. Some of the most productive species have not yet been evaluated at a commercial scale. Approximately 0.6 Mha of land previously used to grow Agave for coarse fibers have fallen out of production, largely as a result of competition with synthetic fibers. Theoretically, this crop area alone could provide 6.1 billion L of ethanol if Agave were re‐established as a bioenergy feedstock without causing indirect land use change. Almost one‐fifth of the global land surface is semiarid, suggesting there may be large opportunities for expansion of Agave crops for feedstock, but more field trials are needed to determine tolerance boundaries for different Agave species.  相似文献   

3.
Renewable fuel standards in the US and elsewhere mandate the production of large quantities of cellulosic biofuels with low greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints, a requirement which will likely entail extensive cultivation of dedicated bioenergy feedstock crops on marginal agricultural lands. Performance data for such systems is sparse, and non‐linear interactions between the feedstock species, agronomic management intensity, and underlying soil and land characteristics complicate the development of sustainable landscape design strategies for low‐impact commercial‐scale feedstock production. Process‐based ecosystem models are valuable for extrapolating field trial results and making predictions of productivity and associated environmental impacts that integrate the effects of spatially variable environmental factors across diverse production landscapes. However, there are few examples of ecosystem model parameterization against field trials on both prime and marginal lands or of conducting landscape‐scale analyses at sufficient resolution to capture interactions between soil type, land use, and management intensity. In this work we used a data‐diverse, multi‐criteria approach to parameterize and validate the DayCent biogeochemistry model for upland and lowland switchgrass using data on yields, soil carbon changes, and soil nitrous oxide emissions from US field trials spanning a range of climates, soil types, and management conditions. We then conducted a high‐resolution case study analysis of a real‐world cellulosic biofuel landscape in Kansas in order to estimate feedstock production potential and associated direct biogenic GHG emissions footprint. Our results suggest that switchgrass yields and emissions balance can vary greatly across a landscape large enough to supply a biorefinery in response to variations in soil type and land‐use history, but that within a given land base both of these performance factors can be widely modulated by changing management intensity. This in turn implies a large sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design space within which a system can be optimized to meet economic or environmental objectives.  相似文献   

4.
Cellulosic biofuel from forest thinning operations is a potential renewable energy source in regions with overstocked forests such as those in western United States. However, it is possible that biomass removal can deplete nutrients from soil, which can alter soil respiration (Rs) and exoenzyme properties, and potentially impact tree growth. This study evaluates the impact of biomass removal on Rs and exoenzyme properties and the capacity of soil amendments to counteract any potential effects. At two study locations, we created four post‐thinning biomass retention levels: full biomass removal (0×), full biomass retention (1×), double biomass retention (2×), and a no‐thin treatment. Four soil amendment treatments were applied to each biomass retention level: N fertilizer (F), biochar (B), fertilizer plus biochar (FB), and an untreated control (C). We evaluated treatment effects on Rs and activity of four exoenzymes to represent C‐cycling, N‐release, and P‐release processes. Biomass retention levels had no effect on Rs (p = .42) or exoenzyme activities (p > .29). Variation in exoenzyme activity was explained by location, season, soil organic matter, soil moisture content, and temperature. Variation in Rs was explained by the same variables, in addition to C‐cycling exoenzyme activity and soil pH. Soil amendments had no effect on exoenzyme activities (p > .49), and no main effect on Rs (p = .48), though amendments influenced Rs differently at each location (p = .02). Short‐term findings suggest small‐diameter biomass removal for cellulosic biofuel production will not impact Rs and exoenzyme properties, and paired with our tree growth study, provide evidence that biofuel systems are a feasible renewable energy source in the western North America.  相似文献   

5.
Growing cellulosic feedstock crops (e.g., switchgrass) for biofuel is more environmentally sustainable than corn‐based ethanol. Specifically, this practice can reduce soil erosion and water quality impairment from pesticides and fertilizer, improve ecosystem services and sustainability (e.g., serve as carbon sinks), and minimize impacts on global food supplies. The main goal of this study was to identify high‐risk marginal croplands that are potentially suitable for growing cellulosic feedstock crops (e.g., switchgrass) in the US Great Plains (GP). Satellite‐derived growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, a switchgrass biomass productivity map obtained from a previous study, US Geological Survey (USGS) irrigation and crop masks, and US Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop indemnity maps for the GP were used in this study. Our hypothesis was that croplands with relatively low crop yield but high productivity potential for switchgrass may be suitable for converting to switchgrass. Areas with relatively low crop indemnity (crop indemnity <$2 157 068) were excluded from the suitable areas based on low probability of crop failures. Results show that approximately 650 000 ha of marginal croplands in the GP are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated switchgrass biomass productivity gain from these suitable areas is about 5.9 million metric tons. Switchgrass can be cultivated in either lowland or upland regions in the GP depending on the local soil and environmental conditions. This study improves our understanding of ecosystem services and the sustainability of cropland systems in the GP. Results from this study provide useful information to land managers for making informed decisions regarding switchgrass development in the GP.  相似文献   

6.
This study dynamically monitors ecosystem performance (EP) to identify grasslands potentially suitable for cellulosic feedstock crops (e.g., switchgrass) within the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). We computed grassland site potential and EP anomalies using 9‐year (2000–2008) time series of 250 m expedited moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, geophysical and biophysical data, weather and climate data, and EP models. We hypothesize that areas with fairly consistent high grassland productivity (i.e., high grassland site potential) in fair to good range condition (i.e., persistent ecosystem overperformance or normal performance, indicating a lack of severe ecological disturbance) are potentially suitable for cellulosic feedstock crop development. Unproductive (i.e., low grassland site potential) or degraded grasslands (i.e., persistent ecosystem underperformance with poor range condition) are not appropriate for cellulosic feedstock development. Grassland pixels with high or moderate ecosystem site potential and with more than 7 years ecosystem normal performance or overperformance during 2000–2008 are identified as possible regions for future cellulosic feedstock crop development (ca. 68 000 km2 within the GPRB, mostly in the eastern areas). Long‐term climate conditions, elevation, soil organic carbon, and yearly seasonal precipitation and temperature are important performance variables to determine the suitable areas in this study. The final map delineating the suitable areas within the GPRB provides a new monitoring and modeling approach that can contribute to decision support tools to help land managers and decision makers make optimal land use decisions regarding cellulosic feedstock crop development and sustainability.  相似文献   

7.
Algal biofuel has become an attractive alternative of petroleum-based fuels in the past decade. Microalgae have been proposed as a feedstock to produce biodiesel, since they are capable of mitigating CO2 emission and accumulating lipids with high productivity. This article is an overview of the updated status of biofuels, especially biodiesel production from microalgae including fundamental research, culture selection and engineering process development; it summarizes research on mathematical and life cycle modeling on algae growth and biomass production; and it updates global efforts of research and development and commercialization attempts. The major challenges are also discussed.  相似文献   

8.
This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha?1 year?1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha?1 year?1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha?1 year?1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.  相似文献   

9.
10.
Stands of native grasses along roadways, in buffer strips, riparian zones and grass prairies have potential utility as feedstock for bioenergy production. The sustainability of harvesting these stands is reliant, in part, on knowledge of the mineral concentration of the harvested grasses because removal of mineral nutrients such as phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) can impact subsequent biomass production and ecosystem services associated with these stands. Mineral content of biomass, particularly that of silicon (Si), chlorine (Cl), and sulfur (S) also impacts thermochemical conversion approaches that convert grasses into bioproducts. This study quantified Cl, S, Si, P and K in Bromus marginatus, Elymus glaucus, Poa secunda, Pseudoroegneria, Elymus lanceolatus, Elymus trachycaulus, Leymus cinereus, Leymus triticoides, and Pseudoroegneria spicata collected at three growth developmental stages from four plant introduction stations located in the western US. Differences (P ? 0.05) in mineral concentrations were associated with developmental stage, species, and location. Variability was greatest in Si concentrations which ranged from 1847 to 28620 mg kg−1, similar to those recorded in other grasses. Variability in Cl and S concentrations also occurred, but at less magnitude than that of Si. Concentrations of P and K, two mineral fertilizer components, varied approximately threefold among these grasses. Differences in mineral concentrations among these grasses were not completely dependent upon soil mineral content. Long-term evaluations of available soil mineral concentrations under contrasting management practices are needed to quantify how local conditions impact mineral cycling, and in turn, the sustainability of harvesting these stands. The data presented here establish baselines for these species in locations subject to contrasting environmental and microbiological conditions that affect mineral cycling and availability.  相似文献   

11.
This study evaluates the effect of agronomic uncertainty on bioenergy crop production as well as endogenous commodity and biomass prices on the feedstock composition of cellulosic biofuels under a binding mandate in the United States. The county‐level simulation model focuses on both field crops (corn, soybean, and wheat) and biomass feedstocks (corn stover, wheat straw, switchgrass, and Miscanthus). In addition, pasture serves as a potential area for bioenergy crop production. The economic model is calibrated to 2022 in terms of yield, crop demand, and baseline prices and allocates land optimally among the alternative crops given the binding cellulosic biofuel mandate. The simulation scenarios differ in terms of bioenergy crop type (switchgrass and Miscanthus) and yield, biomass production inputs, and pasture availability. The cellulosic biofuel mandates range from 15 to 60 billion L. The results indicate that the 15 and 30 billion L mandates in the high production input scenarios for switchgrass and Miscanthus are covered entirely by agricultural residues. With the exception of the low production input for Miscanthus scenario, the share of agricultural residues is always over 50% for all other scenarios including the 60 billion L mandate. The largest proportion of agricultural land dedicated to either switchgrass or Miscanthus is found in the southern Plains and the southeast. Almost no bioenergy crops are grown in the Midwest across all scenarios. Changes in the prices for the three commodities are negligible for cellulosic ethanol mandates because most of the mandate is met with agricultural residues. The lessons learned are that (1) the share of agricultural residue in the feedstock mix is higher than previously estimated and (2) for a given mandate, the feedstock composition is relatively stable with the exception of one scenario.  相似文献   

12.
This study addresses the uncertainties related to potential changes in land use and management and associated impacts on hydrology and water quality resulting from increased production of biofuel from the conventional and cellulosic feedstock. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts on regional and field scale evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loadings in the Ohio River Basin. The model incorporates spatially and temporally detailed hydrologic, climate and agricultural practice data that are pertinent to simulate biofuel feedstock production, watershed hydrology and water quality. Three future biofuel production scenarios in the region were considered, including a feedstock projection from the DOE Billion‐Ton (BT2) Study, a change in corn rotations to continuous corn, and harvest of 50% corn stover. The impacts were evaluated on the basis of relative changes in hydrology and water quality from historical baseline and future business‐as‐usual conditions of the basin. The overall impact on water quality is an order of magnitude higher than the impact on hydrology. For all the three future scenarios, the sub‐basin results indicated an overall increase in annual evapotranspiration of up to 6%, a decrease in runoff up to 10% and minimal change in soil moisture. The sediment and phosphorous loading at both regional and field levels increased considerably (up to 40–90%) for all the biofuel feedstock scenario considered, while the nitrogen loading increased up to 45% in some regions under the BT2 Study scenario, decreased up to 10% when corn are grown continuously instead of in rotations, and changed minimally when 50% of the stover are harvested. Field level analyses revealed significant variability in hydrology and water quality impacts that can further be used to identify suitable locations for the feedstock productions without causing major impacts on water quantity and quality.  相似文献   

13.
Honey mesquite ( Prosopis glandulosa Torr.) which grows on grasslands and rangelands in southwestern USA may have potential as a bioenergy feedstock because of existing standing biomass and regrowth potential. However, regrowth mesquite physiognomy is highly different from undisturbed mesquite physiognomy and little is known regarding growth rates and structural biomass allocation in regrowth mesquite. We compared canopy architecture, aboveground biomass and relative allocation of biomass components in regrowth (RG) trees of different known ages with undisturbed (UD) trees of similar canopy height to each RG age class. RG trees in most age classes (2–12 years old) had greater canopy area, leaf area, basal stem number, twig (<0.5 cm diameter) mass and small stem (0.5–3 cm diameter) mass than UD trees of the same height. Large stem (>3 cm diameter) mass was similar between RG and UD trees in all height classes. Ages of UD trees were determined after harvest and further comparisons were made between age, canopy structure and biomass in RG and UD trees. Relationships between age and total mass, age and height, and age and canopy area indicated a faster growth rate in RG than in UD trees. Large stem mass as a percentage of total tree mass accumulated more rapidly with age in RG than UD trees. Leaf area index and leaf : twig mass ratio were maintained near 1 in all RG and UD trees. Regrowth potential may be one of the most important features of mesquite in consideration as a bioenergy feedstock.  相似文献   

14.
The production of dedicated energy crops on marginally productive cropland is projected to play an important role in reaching the US Billion Ton goal. This study aimed to evaluate warm‐season grasses for biomass production potential under different harvest timings (summer [H1], after killing frost [H2], or alternating between two [H3]) and nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates (0, 56, and 112 kg N/ha) on a wet marginal land across multiple production years. Six feedstocks were evaluated including Miscanthus x giganteus, two switchgrass cultivars (Panicum virgatum L.), prairie cordgrass (Spartina pectinata Link), and two polycultures including a mixture of big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii Vitman), indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans), and sideoats grama (Bouteloua curtipendula [Michx.] Torr.), and a mixture of big bluestem and prairie cordgrass. Across four production years, harvest timing and feedstock type played an important role in biomass production. Miscanthus x giganteus produced the greatest biomass (18.7 Mg/ha), followed by the switchgrass cultivar “Liberty” (14.7 Mg/ha). Harvest in H1 tended to increase yield irrespective of feedstock; the exception being M. x giganteus that had significantly lower biomass when harvested in H1 when compared to H2 and H3. The advantage H1 harvest had over H2 for all feedstocks declined over time, suggesting H2 or H3 would provide greater and more sustainable biomass production for the observed feedstocks. The N application rate played an important role mainly for M. x giganteus where 112 kg N/ha yielded more biomass than no N. Other feedstocks occasionally showed a slight, but statistically insignificant increase in biomass yield with increasing N rate. This study showed the potential of producing feedstocks for bioenergy on wet marginal land; however, more research on tissue and soil nutrient dynamics under different N rates and harvest regimes will be important in understanding stand longevity for feedstocks grown under these conditions.  相似文献   

15.
Feedback between global carbon (C) cycles and climate change is one of the major uncertainties in projecting future global warming. Coupled carbon–climate models all demonstrated a positive feedback between terrestrial C cycle and climate warming. The positive feedback results from decreased net primary production (NPP) in most models and increased respiratory C release by all the models under climate warming. Those modeling results present interesting hypotheses of future states of ecosystems and climate, which are yet to be tested against experimental results. In this study, we examined ecosystem C balance and its major components in a warming and clipping experiment in a North America tallgrass prairie. Infrared heaters have been used to elevate soil temperature by approximately 2 °C continuously since November 1999. Clipping once a year was to mimic hay or biofuel feedstock harvest. On average of data over 6 years from 2000 to 2005, estimated NPP under warming increased by 14% without clipping (P<0.05) and 26% with clipping (P<0.05) in comparison with that under control. Warming did not result in instantaneous increases in soil respiration in 1999 and 2000 but significantly increased it by approximately 8% without clipping (P<0.05) from 2001 to 2005. Soil respiration under warming increased by 15% with clipping (P<0.05) from 2000 to 2005. Warming‐stimulated plant biomass production, due to enhanced C4 dominance, extended growing seasons, and increased nitrogen uptake and use efficiency, offset increased soil respiration, leading to no change in soil C storage at our site. However, biofuel feedstock harvest by biomass removal resulted in significant soil C loss in the clipping and control plots but was carbon negative in the clipping and warming plots largely because of positive interactions of warming and clipping in stimulating root growth. Our results demonstrate that plant production processes play a critical role in regulation of ecosystem carbon‐cycle feedback to climate change in both the current ambient and future warmed world.  相似文献   

16.
The potential expansion of biofuel production raises food, energy, and environmental challenges that require careful assessment of the impact of biofuel production on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, soil erosion, nutrient loading, and water quality. In this study, we describe a spatially explicit integrative modeling framework (SEIMF) to understand and quantify the environmental impacts of different biomass cropping systems. This SEIMF consists of three major components: (1) a geographic information system (GIS)‐based data analysis system to define spatial modeling units with resolution of 56 m to address spatial variability, (2) the biophysical and biogeochemical model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) applied in a spatially‐explicit way to predict biomass yield, GHG emissions, and other environmental impacts of different biofuel crops production systems, and (3) an evolutionary multiobjective optimization algorithm for exploring the trade‐offs between biofuel energy production and unintended ecosystem‐service responses. Simple examples illustrate the major functions of the SEIMF when applied to a nine‐county Regional Intensive Modeling Area (RIMA) in SW Michigan to (1) simulate biofuel crop production, (2) compare impacts of management practices and local ecosystem settings, and (3) optimize the spatial configuration of different biofuel production systems by balancing energy production and other ecosystem‐service variables. Potential applications of the SEIMF to support life cycle analysis and provide information on biodiversity evaluation and marginal‐land identification are also discussed. The SEIMF developed in this study is expected to provide a useful tool for scientists and decision makers to understand sustainability issues associated with the production of biofuels at local, regional, and national scales.  相似文献   

17.
Xu J  Wang Z  Cheng JJ 《Bioresource technology》2011,102(17):7613-7620
Bermuda grass is a promising feedstock for the production of fuel ethanol in the Southern United States. This paper presents a review of the significant amount of research on the conversion of Bermuda grass to ethanol and a brief discussion on the factors affecting the biomass production in the field. The biggest challenge of biomass conversion comes from the recalcitrance of lignocellulose. A variety of chemical, physico-chemical, and biological pretreatment methods have been investigated to improve the digestibility of Bermuda grass with encouraging results reported. The subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation steps have also been extensively studied and effectively optimized. It is expected that the development of genetic engineering technologies for the grass and fermenting organisms has the potential to greatly improve the economic viability of Bermuda grass-based fuel ethanol production systems. Other energy applications of Bermuda grass include anaerobic digestion for biogas generation and pyrolysis for syngas production.  相似文献   

18.
This study examines fresh renewable water resources available for bioenergy feedstock production in the United States. The impacts of feedstock irrigation on surface and groundwater resources available to nonbioenergy sectors were quantified using a pair of water availability indexes: streamflow availability index and percolation flow availability index. The two metrics were applied to both historical (2008) and three possible future biomass production scenarios from the 2016 U.S. Billion‐Ton Report at the county level. For both historical and future scenarios, we found that the consumptive irrigation requirements for bioenergy feedstock account for <0.01% of annual streamflow in all but three counties in Nebraska. Results suggest that the irrigation demand of future biomass production could be supplied by annual renewable groundwater flow in about 94% of feedstock‐growing counties that use groundwater for irrigation, representing about 92% of production tonnage. Counties that require irrigation from nonrenewable groundwater resources are mostly located in the Northern Plains and Pacific regions. We also evaluated the sensitivity of crop water footprint estimation to soil moisture carryover by comparing blue water estimates from six different empirical and process‐based methods. Our findings suggest that accounting for preseason soil moisture is critical for representative blue water estimation, so that the irrigation water consumption is not overestimated. This is especially true in the Corn Belt region, where blue water estimates with and without preseason soil moisture would be about 1.9 versus 45.5 billion m3/year under the historical scenario. This difference is smaller in semiarid regions like the High Plains, but the blue water estimate can still triple if soil moisture is not considered. From the perspective of renewable surface water and groundwater resources, scaling feedstock production up in the High Plains and California will require careful planning integrated with water management strategies to improve water resource conservation.  相似文献   

19.
为了简化纤维素乙醇生产工艺,实现纤维素利用与乙醇发酵的同步进行,通过酵母细胞表面展示技术,以酿酒酵母菌株Saccharomyces cerevisiae Y5为受体,通过絮凝素(Flo1p)锚定方式,将来自丝状真菌里氏木霉Trichoderma reesei的内切葡聚糖酶Ⅱ(EGII)、纤维二糖水解酶Ⅱ(CBHII)以及来自棘孢曲霉Aspergillus aculeatus的β-葡糖苷酶Ⅰ(BGLI)展示在细胞表面,构建同时表达3种纤维素酶的酵母菌群系统。经过免疫荧光验证展示酶的细胞蛋白定位,酶活测定,乙醇发酵性能验证,结果表明:展示表达的3种纤维素酶具有良好的稳定性和功能活性;在EGII、CBHII和BGLI协同作用下重组酵母菌株能够水解溶胀磷酸纤维素(Phosphoric acid swollen cellulose,简称PASC)并产生乙醇,乙醇浓度达到最大值0.77 g/L,乙醇产量为0.35 g/g,相当于理论值的68.6%。本研究成功构建了利用Flo1p作为锚定蛋白的絮凝素展示系统,初步实现了纤维素利用与乙醇发酵的同步进行,为利用酿酒酵母表面展示技术固定并表达纤维素酶提供了一定的理论依据。  相似文献   

20.
The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act mandates a five‐fold increase in US biofuel production by 2022. Given this ambitious policy target, there is a need for spatially explicit estimates of landscape suitability for growing biofuel feedstocks. We developed a suitability modeling approach for two major US biofuel crops, corn (Zea mays) and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), based upon the use of two presence‐only species distribution models (SDMs): maximum entropy (Maxent) and support vector machines (SVM). SDMs are commonly used for modeling animal and plant distributions in natural environments, but have rarely been used to develop landscape models for cultivated crops. AUC, Kappa, and correlation measures derived from test data indicate that SVM slightly outperformed Maxent in modeling US corn production, although both models produced significantly accurate results. When compared with results from a mechanistic switchgrass model recently developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), SVM results showed higher correlation than Maxent results with models fit using county‐scale point inputs of switchgrass production derived from expert opinion estimates. However, Maxent results for an alternative switchgrass model developed with point inputs from research trial sites showed higher correlation to the ORNL model than the corresponding results obtained from SVM. Further analysis indicates that both modeling approaches were effective in predicting county‐scale increases in corn production from 2006 to 2007, a time period in which US corn production increased by 24%. We conclude that presence‐only methods are a powerful first‐cut tool for estimating relative land suitability across geographic regions in which candidate biofuel feedstocks can be grown, and may also provide important insight into potential land‐use change patterns likely to be associated with increased biofuel demand.  相似文献   

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