Nonparametric estimation and testing in a cure model.

Nonparametric generalized maximum likelihood product limit point estimators and confidence intervals are given for a cure model with random censorship. One-, two-, and K-sample likelihood ratio tests for inference on the cure rates are developed. In the two-sample case its power is compared to the power of several alternatives, including the log-rank and Gray and Tsiatis (1989, Biometrics 45, 899-904) tests. Implications for the use of the likelihood ratio test in a clinical trial designed to compare cure rates are discussed.     

Nonparametric estimation of the effects of quantitative trait loci

Interval mapping of quantitative trait loci from breeding experiments plays an important role in understanding the mechanisms of disease, both in humans and other organisms. Standard approaches to estimation involve parametric assumptions for the component distributions and may be sensitive to model misspecification. Some nonparametric tests have been studied. However, nonparametric estimation of the phenotypic distributions has not been considered in the genetics literature, even though such methods might provide essential nonparametric summaries for comparing different loci. We develop a sufficient condition for identifiability of the phenotypic distributions. Simple nonparametric estimators for the distributions are proposed for uncensored and right censored data. They have a closed form and their small and large sample properties are readily established. Their practical utility as numerical summaries which complement nonparametric tests is demonstrated on two recent genetics examples.     

Nonparametric estimation of a multivariate distribution in the presence of censoring

This paper presents examples of situations in which one wishes to estimate a multivariate distribution from data that may be right-censored. A distinction is made between what we term 'homogeneous' and 'heterogeneous' censoring. It is shown how a multivariate empirical survivor function must be constructed in order to be considered a (nonparametric) maximum likelihood estimate of the underlying survivor function. A closed-form solution, similar to the product-limit estimate of Kaplan and Meier, is possible with homogeneous censoring, but an iterative method, such as the EM algorithm, is required with heterogeneous censoring. An example is given in which an anomaly is produced if censored multivariate data are analyzed as a series of univariate variables; this anomaly is shown to disappear if the methods of this paper are used.     

Nonparametric estimation for cumulative duration of adverse events

Analysis of adverse events (AE) for drug safety assessment presents challenges to statisticians in observational studies as well as in clinical trials since AEs are typically recurrent with varying duration and severity. Routine analyses often concentrate on the number of patients who had at least one occurrence of a specific AE or a group of AEs, or the time to occurrence of the first event. We argue that other information in AE data particularly cumulative duration of events is also important, particularly for benefit-risk assessment. We propose a nonparametric method to estimate the mean cumulative duration (MCD) based on the nonparametric cumulative mean function estimate, together with a robust estimate for the variance of the estimate, as in Lawless and Nadeau (1995). This approach can be easily used to analyze multiple, overlapped and severity weighted AE durations. This method can also be used for estimating the difference between two MCDs. Estimation in the presence of censoring due to informative dropouts and/or a terminal event is also considered. The method can be implemented in standard softwares such as SAS. We illustrate the use of the method with a numerical example. Small sample properties of this approach are examined via simulation.     

Nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the three-way receiver operating characteristic surface

We describe a nonparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the three-way ROC surface based on mixtures of finite Polya trees (MFPT) priors. Mixtures of finite Polya trees are robust models that can handle nonstandard features in the data. We address the difficulties in modeling continuous diagnostic data with skewness, multimodality, or other nonstandard features, and how parametric approaches can lead to misleading results in such cases. Robust, data-driven inference for the ROC surface and for the volume under the ROC surface is obtained. A simulation study is performed to assess the performance of the proposed method. Methods are applied to data from a magnetic resonance spectroscopy study on human immunodeficiency virus patients.     

Nonparametric estimation of age-at-onset distributions from censored kin-cohort data

We present a nonparametric estimator of genotype-specific age-at-onsetdistributions from kin-cohort data. Standard error calculationsare derived and the methodology is illustrated through an analysisof the influence of mutations of the Parkin gene on Parkinson'sdisease. Semiparametric efficiency considerations are brieflydiscussed.     

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function when cause of death is uncertain

A nonparametric estimator for the survival function, accommodating censored survival times and uncertainty in the assignment of cause of death, is proposed. For example, in a carcinogenicity experiment the data on each animal may consist of an observed age-at-death and some indication of the probability that the tumor type under study caused death. An estimator of the net survival function, for time-to-death due to the cause of interest, is developed. Under certain assumptions, the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Monte Carlo simulations were used to compare this estimator with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Forcing the cause of death to be specified with certainty, as required by the Kaplan-Meier estimator, may result in substantial biases.     

Nonparametric estimation of bivariate failure time associations in the presence of a competing risk

Most research on the study of associations among paired failuretimes has either assumed time invariance or been based on complexmeasures or estimators. Little has accommodated competing risks.This paper targets the conditional cause-specific hazard ratio,henceforth called the cause-specific cross ratio, a recent modificationof the conditional hazard ratio designed to accommodate competingrisks data. Estimation is accomplished by an intuitive, nonparametricmethod that localizes Kendall's tau. Time variance is accommodatedthrough a partitioning of space into ‘bins’ betweenwhich the strength of association may differ. Inferential proceduresare developed, small-sample performance is evaluated, and themethods are applied to the investigation of familial associationin dementia onset.