Are Existing Global Scenarios Consistent with Ecological Feedbacks?

Scenarios can help planners and decision makers to think through uncertainties about the future and make decisions that are robust to a variety of possible outcomes. To develop useful scenarios we need to understand the main processes of relevance to the system of interest. Ecological processes, and the feedbacks that they can create between human actions and human well-being, are thought to be important for human societies. Current uncertainties over the long-term resilience of ecosystems and the substitutability of ecosystem goods and services can be translated into three alternative realities: ecosystems may be relatively brittle, relatively resilient, or largely irrelevant. Although these extremes are only rough characterizations of reality, they help us to focus our thinking about the possible outcomes of interactions between humans and the rest of the biosphere. Existing global scenarios can be categorized into a small number of families based on shared themes and assumptions about the future. Considering the internal consistency of four of the main scenario families in relation to the three alternative ecological realities suggests that all existing scenarios make strong, implicit assumptions about the resilience of ecosystems. After a detailed discussion of individual examples, we present a synthesis of the incorporation of ecology in existing scenarios. All current scenarios are inconsistent with at least one possible property of ecosystems and their likely interaction with society. The interrelationships between ecological reality, human views of ecosystems, and social responses to actual and perceived ecological change are complex. For the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and future scenario exercises, we recommend that essential ecological assumptions should be made explicit to ensure that the details of each scenario are consistent with both the perceived and the actual degree of resilience of ecosystems.     

Global Scenarios: Background Review for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

The long-range outlook for the world’s ecosystems depends on the course taken by global development in the coming decades. Current global trends and ecological dynamics are consistent with very different outcomes, defined by alternative assumptions about the technological, economic, demographic, geopolitical, and social aspects of development and the ways in which institutions, personal and public values, and natural systems may be expected to respond to historically novel stressors. Recent advances in scenario analysis have addressed the dual methodological challenge of exploring these uncertainties in an organized way and determining what would be needed to make the transition to sustainability. This paper reviews global scenario research, setting current efforts in a historical context. It focuses on seven recent studies that are comprehensive, regionally disaggregated, and narratively rich—and thus of greatest relevance to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). It summarizes their social visions and the level of quantitative detail used in these exercises. Taken together, this suite of global scenario studies provides a useful platform for the MA by offering insight into the complex factors that drive ecosystem change, estimating the magnitude of regional pressures on ecosystems, sounding the alert on critical uncertainties that could undermine sustainable development, and understanding the importance of institutions and values. But these studies are only a point of departure. The integration of changing ecosystem conditions into global development scenarios, as both effects and causes, is at the cutting edge of scenario analysis. The paper concludes by identifying directions for this research program and suggesting ways that the MA can contribute to this effort.     

Shaping global environmental decisions using socio-ecological models

One of the most ambitious ecological studies of the past few decades was the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), which examined the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being. The MA developed global ecological scenarios as a process to inform policy options, despite enormous uncertainties. These scenarios were based on an interlocking suite of models that forecast the future. Following the recent completion and publication of the MA, there is now movement towards making the value of ecosystem services an integral part of key policy decisions. Here, we review the MA approach and suggest areas where immediate progress can be made to increase the likelihood that decision-makers will embrace the vision of assessments such as the MA.     

How Can We Identify and Communicate the Ecological Value of Deep-Sea Ecosystem Services?

Submarine canyons are considered biodiversity hotspots which have been identified for their important roles in connecting the deep sea with shallower waters. To date, a huge gap exists between the high importance that scientists associate with deep-sea ecosystem services and the communication of this knowledge to decision makers and to the wider public, who remain largely ignorant of the importance of these services. The connectivity and complexity of marine ecosystems makes knowledge transfer very challenging, and new communication tools are necessary to increase understanding of ecological values beyond the science community. We show how the Ecosystem Principles Approach, a method that explains the importance of ocean processes via easily understandable ecological principles, might overcome this challenge for deep-sea ecosystem services. Scientists were asked to help develop a list of clear and concise ecosystem principles for the functioning of submarine canyons through a Delphi process to facilitate future transfers of ecological knowledge. These ecosystem principles describe ecosystem processes, link such processes to ecosystem services, and provide spatial and temporal information on the connectivity between deep and shallow waters. They also elucidate unique characteristics of submarine canyons. Our Ecosystem Principles Approach was successful in integrating ecological information into the ecosystem services assessment process. It therefore has a high potential to be the next step towards a wider implementation of ecological values in marine planning. We believe that successful communication of ecological knowledge is the key to a wider public support for ocean conservation, and that this endeavour has to be driven by scientists in their own interest as major deep-sea stakeholders.     

生态系统综合评价的内容与方法

生态系统综合评价是系统分析生态系统的生产及服务能力,对生态系统进行健康诊断,做出综合的生态分析和经济分析,评价其当前状态,并预测生态系统今后的发展趋势,为生态系统管理提供科学依据。从总体上讲,综合评价更强调生态系统一系列产品与服务功能之间的权衡,具有很强的实践意义。许多学者对不同的生态系统服务功能进行了经济价值评估,但缺乏对生态系统的产品、服务、健康与管理之间关系的进一步探讨。对生态系统服务功能评价、健康评价的生态管理与预测进行了系统论述,目的是提出生态系统综合评价的框架,指导生态系统评价行动及生态系统管理。     

Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning.     

湖泊生态服务受益者分析及生态生产函数构建

生态系统服务管理作为生态系统管理的优化方式,是生态学研究的前沿方向。湖泊生态系统服务管理是指综合利用生态学、经济学、社会学和管理学等学科知识,对影响湖泊生态系统结构、过程、功能的关键因子进行调控,提高湖泊生态系统服务供给水平和供给能力的过程。近年来国内外学者针对湖泊生态系统服务内涵、分类、经济价值评估等方面开展了大量研究,极大地促进了湖泊生态系统服务从认知走向管理实践。然而,现有研究在开展湖泊生态系统服务价值评估时多忽略生态系统服务受益者和生态系统特征对生态系统服务的边际影响分析,无法揭示生态系统服务空间流动和转移特征及生态系统服务时空权衡关系,制约了生态系统服务研究与管理决策和政策设计结合。在综述湖泊生态系统服务定量评估方法的基础上,认为通过生态系统服务受益者分析确定湖泊生态系统最终服务,并通过构建生态生产函数确定湖泊生态系统服务权衡关系及湖泊生态系统特征对生态系统最终服务的边际影响,是生态系统服务走向管理实践和政策设计的科学依据,可以确保生态、社会、经济可持续发展。     

湖泊-流域生态系统管理的内容与方法

在流域生态系统管理研究综述的基础上,对湖泊一流域生态系统管理的概念进行了界定,对水环境管理、综合流域管理与流域生态系统管理之间的差异进行了对比分析。确定了生态系统生态学、流域生态学、生态系统健康和流域方法为湖泊．流域生态系统管理的理论基础,生态系统方法和流域分析为其方法学基础。在上述分析的基础上,提出了湖泊．流域生态系统管理的6个主要步骤：研究范围界定、基础信息收集与基本生态学问题的分析和评价、管理目标设定、系统综合、生态系统综合评价、适应性管理;识别出湖泊-流域生态系统管理中的3个关键问题：①生态系统管理中的不确定性和障碍分析;②流域土地利用变化对湖泊水质和生态系统的影响;③流域生态子系统与社会子系统的关联。     

生态系统服务制图研究进展

生态系统服务是生态学研究的前沿方向之一,生态系统服务制图是将生态系统服务的评估结果纳入到生态环境保护规划与管理决策制定与实施过程中的重要组成部分。生态系统服务制图是根据决策需求,选择合适的制图评价方法,对特定时空尺度上生态系统服务的空间分布以及在各种自然-社会因素共同影响下生态系统服务的情景变化进行量化描述的过程。它最终为决策参与者提供研究区域生态系统服务时空变化特征具体的、可视的量化描述,辅助决策者权衡利弊,最终制定出符合区域生态环境与人类社会共同可持续发展的最优决策。综述了生态系统服务制图的内涵及其在辅助决策过程中的重要作用;介绍了生态系统服务的重点研究内容(生态系统服务的提供、需求及权衡协同关系制图)及研究方法;并对目前研究中所存在的问题进行了深入的探讨,归纳了生态系统服务的制图评价流程及未来重点的研究方向。     

基于SolVES模型的关中-天水经济区生态系统文化服务评估

随着人类对于生态系统服务的需求持续增加,生态系统服务的评估逐渐成为研究热点。其中文化服务因其自身的无形性常在研究中被忽视且难以衡量。选取关中-天水经济区为研究区域,应用Sol VES模型并生成5种价值指数地图和价值总和地图来评估该区域生态系统的文化服务。结果表明:审美价值在秦岭山脉和城市公园等区域较高;娱乐价值在娱乐机会较多、交通便利的城市和秦岭北麓区域更高;文化与历史价值集中在历史文化底蕴深厚的城市地区;精神价值在与城市距离较近、有山川分布的森林公园更高。Sol VES模型在大范围区域的应用取得了较好的效果同时为政府进行生态建设和规划提供了科学依据。     

海岛生态系统服务价值评估及其时空变化——以浙江舟山金塘岛为例

生态系统服务价值研究是目前生态学研究的热点之一,海岛生态系统的特殊性令其更易受人类活动和环境变化的影响。文章在海岛生态系统服务价值当量修订的基础上,对典型海岛金塘岛1986—2014年的生态系统服务价值进行评估,分析了金塘岛近30年来生态系统服务价值的时空动态变化。结果表明:城镇生态系统面积持续增加,其他生态系统类型面积不同程度减少,减少的生态系统类型大多数转化为城镇。1986—2014年金塘岛的生态系统服务总价值呈下降趋势,共减少了1.08亿元,减少了30.23%,其中湿地与森林的生态系统服务价值量减少最多,城镇的价值变化率最大。空间上表现为价值极低区域沿着人类活动方向呈现急剧扩大趋势。生态系统提供的产品与服务在数量和质量上逐步下降,不利于海岛的可持续发展。该研究为海岛地区生态系统服务价值当量修订提供参考,同时对转变海岛经济发展方式,促进海岛可持续发展提供基础信息与决策依据。     

黄土高原典型退耕区生态系统服务权衡与协同关系研究——以延安市为例

在退耕还林的背景下,从多尺度分析黄土高原生态系统服务的时空变化及权衡协同关系对促进该区经济发展和生态效益多赢具有重要意义。以黄土高原退耕还林典型区延安市为例,运用InVEST模型评估1988-2018年农作物生产、碳储量、生境质量、土壤保持、产水量5种关键生态系统服务物质量,采用偏相关分析法探讨生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系及其时空变化特征。研究结果表明：（1）受土地利用变化影响,延安市农作物生产水平、土壤保持年际变化趋势波动较大,农作物生产水平呈波动增加的趋势,土壤保持退耕还林前呈减少,退耕还林后呈波动增加的趋势,碳储量和生境质量呈逐渐增加的趋势,产水量呈逐渐减弱的趋势。（2）生态系统服务与土地利用格局联系紧密。碳储量、生境质量的高值区域以及产水量的低值区域随林地分布格局变化而变化。（3）协同关系是延安市生态系统服务间相关关系的主体,主要发生在碳储量、生境质量、土壤保持、农作物生产之间,权衡关系主要存在于产水量和其他生态系统服务之间。（4）市、县域生态系统服务间关系的差异主要发生在生境质量和土壤保持之间。     

基于生态系统服务的城市化区域生态风险表征方法研究

快速城市化导致城市周边区域生态系统服务损失并引发生态风险。以多种类型的生态系统服务作为生态风险的评价终点,构建了基于服务价值量的城市化区域生态风险表征方法,以北京市为例对方法进行了应用,并进行了风险评价结果的不确定性分析和参数敏感性分析。案例研究显示2015年北京市生态风险总体处于低风险接近中等风险水平,低风险和极低风险区域面积占全市的50%以上,主要分布于北京市西部和北部,高风险和极高风险区域面积占20%左右,主要分布于中心城区。生态风险空间格局特征表明北京市城市区域的扩张造成周边区域生态系统服务的下降,导致生态风险水平的上升。研究提出的生态风险指数同生态系统服务当量因子间具有显著的线性关系,可用于估算生态系统服务价值。不确定性和参数敏感性分析表明生态风险指数计算结果变异较小,指数具有较高的可靠性。研究方法能够综合表征城市化区域的生态风险,定量表征结果便于决策者理解,具有应用于风险评价和管理实践的价值。     

河流景观生态服务供给与需求/消费的互馈机制

河流景观系统孕育了人类文明,为人类社会提供类型多样的生态系统服务。其本身是一个自然景观过程和社会经济过程高度耦合的社会-生态系统,具有极高的空间异质性、时间动态和鲜明的组织尺度等级结构。当前,对河流景观系统这种特点所决定的生态系统服务供给与需求/消费互馈的机制研究不够深入,普遍缺乏从过程角度刻画生态服务供给与需求/消费互馈关系及其时空异质性和尺度特征。生态服务供给、需求和消费产生于社会-生态系统,是社会-生态耦合的纽带。阐述了河流景观生态服务供给和需求/消费的时空异质性,阐释了它们时空耦合机制和尺度特征,梳理了当前对生态服务供给、需求/消费互馈机理研究的不足。认为未来需要在社会-生态系统的框架下,从景观结构和生态过程出发,融合景观生态过程和社会过程来深入认识河流景观系统的生态服务供给与区内人类对生态服务的需求/消费之间的互馈机制。未来应重点关注：（1）河流景观结构和过程决定的生态服务供给和消费的空间分异及驱动机制;（2）河流生态服务传输的自然和人文载体及其耦合格局;（3）将生态服务需求/消费通过景观结构和生态过程对生态服务供给的反馈融入生态服务评估的方法框架,研发基于生态服务供给和需求/消费的社会-生态互馈过程模型。     

粤港澳大湾区城市群生态系统智能化管理

开展生态系统数字化、信息化、智能化管理,全面提升粤港澳大湾区生态环境质量,是建设国际一流湾区的必然趋势。以城市群生态系统智能化管理为目标,系统整合各类生态环境相关数据资源,形成生态系统管理数据和决策支撑体系,并以此为基础构建生态智能管理平台。研究以生态系统要素和功能管理逻辑为核心,构建了生态系统管理业务流程：（1）精准剖析生态环境问题,确定问题发生的尺度、范围并对其进行分类和定性;（2）确立生态管理目标,制定适宜的管理策略;（3）根据现状与基线进行生态系统服务权衡,通过生态管理恢复工程提升生态系统质量;（4）通过环境物联网监测生态系统变化,及时调整和改进生态系统管理计划。针对城市群生态系统多尺度、多层次、复杂化等特点,在制定管理决策时应充分权衡管理目标和生态服务,兼顾各类生态系统服务效益;需通过示范性生态工程印证管理方案的可行性、适用性和协同性;以趋善化理念为指导思想,不断优化调整生态管理目标;同时在管理活动实施的过程中不断积累、凝练、总结所获得的反馈信息和经验。面向生态管理体制和管理能力的现代化提升需求,融合大数据、地理信息系统（GIS）、全球广域网络（Web）等信息化技术,构建粤港澳大湾区生态管理智能平台,实现多主体信息共享,打破管理决策的"黑箱",为推进生态环境管理现代化提供可靠可行的方案。构建的生态系统管理业务流程和管理策略,将知识充分融入管理决策的制定流程,能服务于粤港澳大湾区的生态文明建设,推动可持续和高质量发展。     

1998-2014年艾比湖湿地自然保护区生态系统服务价值及其时空变异

湿地的生态系统服务价值是生态学研究的热点之一。以艾比湖湿地自然保护区为研究区,以1998年的TM影像、2006年的Landsat ETM+影像及2014年的Landsat OLI影像为数据源,采用Costanza生态系统服务价值公式进行生态系统服务价值评估,结合空间自相关模型,定量探讨了艾比湖湿地自然保护区生态系统服务价值时空分异特征。结果表明：（1）近20年来,研究区的土地利用/覆被变化显著,除了水体和裸地面积减少,其它土地覆被类型面积都有不同比例的增加。（2）在生态系统服务价值方面,近20年来ESV（Ecosystem Services Values）整体变化不大,但近年ESV有所降低,生态环境出现恶化趋势。（3）在生态系统服务的时空变异方面,研究区ESV空间正相关显著,空间集聚程度高值区主要集中在艾比湖水域和湿地,并且高值区有增加向减少转变的趋势,低值聚集区在湖区四周,且逐年增加。（4）近20年来,影响研究区生态系统服务价值时空变化的驱动力因素主要包括自然因素和人为因素,人为因素是研究区生态系统服务价值时空变化的主要驱动因素。     

Understanding relationships among multiple ecosystem services

Ecosystem management that attempts to maximize the production of one ecosystem service often results in substantial declines in the provision of other ecosystem services. For this reason, recent studies have called for increased attention to development of a theoretical understanding behind the relationships among ecosystem services. Here, we review the literature on ecosystem services and propose a typology of relationships between ecosystem services based on the role of drivers and the interactions between services. We use this typology to develop three propositions to help drive ecological science towards a better understanding of the relationships among multiple ecosystem services. Research which aims to understand the relationships among multiple ecosystem services and the mechanisms behind these relationships will improve our ability to sustainably manage landscapes to provide multiple ecosystem services.     

Considerations for the development of a terrestrial index of ecological integrity

Ecological systems are composed of complex biological and physical components that are difficult to understand and to measure. However, effective management actions and policy decisions require information on the status, condition, and trends of ecosystems. Multiple levels of information are needed to make effective decisions and the ideal indicators for measuring ecosystem integrity will incorporate information from multiple dimensions of the ecosystem. A terrestrial index of ecological integrity would be a useful tool for ecosystem managers and decision makers. The ideal requirements of the terrestrial index of ecosystem integrity (TIEI) are that it be comprehensive and multi-scale, grounded in natural history, relevant and helpful, able to integrate concerns from aquatic and terrestrial ecology, and that it be flexible and measurable.The objective of this research is to investigate if an index, or indices, could be developed that would summarize the condition of ecosystems so that changes can be tracked over time and this information utilized as a tool to support environmental decision making.     

Altered dynamics of forest recovery under a changing climate

Forest regeneration following disturbance is a key ecological process, influencing forest structure and function, species assemblages, and ecosystem–climate interactions. Climate change may alter forest recovery dynamics or even prevent recovery, triggering feedbacks to the climate system, altering regional biodiversity, and affecting the ecosystem services provided by forests. Multiple lines of evidence – including global‐scale patterns in forest recovery dynamics; forest responses to experimental manipulation of CO₂, temperature, and precipitation; forest responses to the climate change that has already occurred; ecological theory; and ecosystem and earth system models – all indicate that the dynamics of forest recovery are sensitive to climate. However, synthetic understanding of how atmospheric CO₂ and climate shape trajectories of forest recovery is lacking. Here, we review these separate lines of evidence, which together demonstrate that the dynamics of forest recovery are being impacted by increasing atmospheric CO₂ and changing climate. Rates of forest recovery generally increase with CO₂, temperature, and water availability. Drought reduces growth and live biomass in forests of all ages, having a particularly strong effect on seedling recruitment and survival. Responses of individual trees and whole‐forest ecosystems to CO₂ and climate manipulations often vary by age, implying that forests of different ages will respond differently to climate change. Furthermore, species within a community typically exhibit differential responses to CO₂ and climate, and altered community dynamics can have important consequences for ecosystem function. Age‐ and species‐dependent responses provide a mechanism by which climate change may push some forests past critical thresholds such that they fail to recover to their previous state following disturbance. Altered dynamics of forest recovery will result in positive and negative feedbacks to climate change. Future research on this topic and corresponding improvements to earth system models will be a key to understanding the future of forests and their feedbacks to the climate system.     

Operationalizing the ecosystems approach: Assessing the environmental impact of major infrastructure development

The ecosystem services approach is increasingly applied in the context of environmental resources management and impact assessment. Assessments often involve analysis of alternative scenarios for which potential changes in ecosystem services are quantified. For such assessments to be effective there is a requirement to represent changes in ecosystem services supply in a clear and informative manner. Here we compute Ecosystem Services Ratio (ESR), a simple index that quantifies the relative change in ecosystem service provision under altered conditions given the baseline, and the Modified Ecosystem Services State Index, which averages the ESR scores obtained for each ecosystem service assessed, to provide an overall measure of the change. Given that modelling approaches to quantification of ecosystem services often result in production of maps of ecosystem supply, the proposed metrics can be visualized as maps in support to decision making processes. We use these indices to investigate potential changes in the supply of seven modelled ecosystem services resulting from the introduction of a major road development – a highway with associated green infrastructure – into a predominantly agricultural landscape in the UK. We find that the planted woodland, scrubland and grassland can increase the supply of multiple ecosystem services not accounted for in previous green infrastructure studies, although the magnitude of change differs with the type of vegetation, initial conditions and timeframes of the assessment.