Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.     

Livestock greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential in Europe

The livestock sector contributes considerably to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Here, for the year 2007 we examined GHG emissions in the EU27 livestock sector and estimated GHG emissions from production and consumption of livestock products; including imports, exports and wastage. We also reviewed available mitigation options and estimated their potential. The focus of this review is on the beef and dairy sector since these contribute 60% of all livestock production emissions. Particular attention is paid to the role of land use and land use change (LULUC) and carbon sequestration in grasslands. GHG emissions of all livestock products amount to between 630 and 863 Mt CO₂e, or 12–17% of total EU27 GHG emissions in 2007. The highest emissions aside from production, originate from LULUC, followed by emissions from wasted food. The total GHG mitigation potential from the livestock sector in Europe is between 101 and 377 Mt CO₂e equivalent to between 12 and 61% of total EU27 livestock sector emissions in 2007. A reduction in food waste and consumption of livestock products linked with reduced production, are the most effective mitigation options, and if encouraged, would also deliver environmental and human health benefits. Production of beef and dairy on grassland, as opposed to intensive grain fed production, can be associated with a reduction in GHG emissions depending on actual LULUC emissions. This could be promoted on rough grazing land where appropriate.     

A multi‐criteria based review of models that predict environmental impacts of land use‐change for perennial energy crops on water,carbon and nitrogen cycling

Reduction in energy sector greenhouse gas GHG emissions is a key aim of European Commission plans to expand cultivation of bioenergy crops. Since agriculture makes up 10–12% of anthropogenic GHG emissions, impacts of land‐use change must be considered, which requires detailed understanding of specific changes to agroecosystems. The greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of perennials may differ significantly from the previous ecosystem. Net change in GHG emissions with land‐use change for bioenergy may exceed avoided fossil fuel emissions, meaning that actual GHG mitigation benefits are variable. Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling are complex interlinked systems, and a change in land management may affect both differently at different sites, depending on other variables. Change in evapotranspiration with land‐use change may also have significant environmental or water resource impacts at some locations. This article derives a multi‐criteria based decision analysis approach to objectively identify the most appropriate assessment method of the environmental impacts of land‐use change for perennial energy crops. Based on a literature review and conceptual model in support of this approach, the potential impacts of land‐use change for perennial energy crops on GHG emissions and evapotranspiration were identified, as well as likely controlling variables. These findings were used to structure the decision problem and to outline model requirements. A process‐based model representing the complete agroecosystem was identified as the best predictive tool, where adequate data are available. Nineteen models were assessed according to suitability criteria, to identify current model capability, based on the conceptual model, and explicit representation of processes at appropriate resolution. FASSET, ECOSSE, ANIMO, DNDC, DayCent, Expert‐N, Ecosys, WNMM and CERES‐NOE were identified as appropriate models, with factors such as crop, location and data availability dictating the final decision for a given project. A database to inform such decisions is included.     

Trade‐offs across productivity,GHG intensity,and pollutant loads from second‐generation sorghum bioenergy

Greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity is frequently used to assess the mitigation potential of biofuels; however, failure to quantify other environmental impacts may result in unintended consequences, effectively shifting the environmental burden of fuel production rather than reducing it. We modeled production of E₈₅, a gasoline/ethanol blend, from forage sorghum (Sorghum bicolor cv. photoperiod LS) grown, processed, and consumed in California's Imperial Valley in order to evaluate the influence of nitrogen (N) management on well‐to‐wheel (WTW) environmental impacts from cellulosic ethanol. We simulated 25 N management scenarios varying application rate, application method, and N source. Life cycle environmental impacts were characterized using the EPA's criteria for emissions affecting the environment and human health. Our results suggest efficient use of N is an important pathway for minimizing WTW emissions on an energy yield basis. Simulations in which N was injected had the highest nitrogen use efficiency. Even at rates as high as 450 kg N ha^?1, injected N simulations generated a yield response sufficient to outweigh accompanying increases in most N‐induced emissions on an energy yield basis. Thus, within the biofuel life cycle, trade‐offs across productivity, GHG intensity, and pollutant loads may be possible to avoid at regional to global scales. However, trade‐offs were seemingly unavoidable when impacts from E₈₅ were compared to those of conventional gasoline. The GHG intensity of sorghum‐derived E₈₅ ranged from 29 to 44 g CO₂ eq MJ^?1, roughly 1/3 to 1/2 that of gasoline. Conversely, emissions contributing to local air and water pollution tended to be substantially higher in the E₈₅ life cycle. These adverse impacts were strongly influenced by N management and could be partially mitigated by efficient application of N fertilizers. Together, our results emphasize the importance of minimizing on‐farm emissions in maximizing both the environmental benefits and profitability of biofuels.     

The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of China's Food System: An Analysis of Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

Food chain systems (FCSs), which begin in agricultural production and end in consumption and waste disposal, play a significant role in China's rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article uses scenario analysis to show China's potential trajectories to a low‐carbon FCS. Between 1996 and 2010, the GHG footprint of China's FCSs increased from 1,308 to 1,618 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂‐eq), although the emissions intensity of all food categories, except for aquatic food, recorded steep declines. We project three scenarios to 2050 based on historical trends and plausible shifts in policies and environmental conditions: reference scenario; technology improvement scenario; and low GHG emissions scenario. The reference scenario is based on existing trends and exhibits a large growth in GHG emissions, increasing from 1,585 Mt CO₂‐eq in 2010 to 2,505 Mt CO₂‐eq in 2050. In the technology improvement scenario, emissions growth is driven by rising food demand, but that growth will be counterbalanced by gains in agricultural technology, causing GHG emissions to fall to 1,413 Mt CO₂‐eq by 2050. Combining technology improvement with the shift to healthier dietary patterns, GHG emissions in the low GHG emissions scenario will decline to 946 Mt CO₂‐eq in 2050, a drop of 41.5% compared with the level in 2010. We argue that these are realistic projections and are indeed indicative of China's overall strategy for low‐carbon development. Improving agricultural technology and shifting to a more balanced diet could significantly reduce the GHG footprint of China's FCSs. Furthermore, the transition to a low‐carbon FCS has potential cobenefits for land sustainability and public health.     

Comparing urban food system characteristics and actions in US and Indian cities from a multi‐environmental impact perspective: Toward a streamlined approach

Food action plans in many global cities articulate interest in multiple objectives including reducing in‐ and trans‐boundary environmental impacts (water, land, greenhouse gas (GHG)). However, there exist few standardized analytical tools to compare food system characteristics and actions across cities and countries to assess trade‐offs between multiple objectives (i.e., health, equity) with environmental outcomes. This paper demonstrates a streamlined model applied for analysis of four cities with varying characteristics across the United States and India, to quantify system‐wide water, energy/GHG, and land impacts associated with multiple food system actions to address health, equity, and environment. Baseline diet analysis finds key differences between countries in terms of meat consumption (Delhi 4; Pondicherry 16; United States 59, kg/capita/year), and environmental impact of processing of the average diet (21%, 19%, <1%, <1% of community‐wide GHG‐emissions for New York, Minneapolis, Delhi, and Pondicherry). Analysis of supply chains finds city average distance (food‐miles) varies (Delhi 420; Pondicherry 200; United States average 1,640 km/t‐food) and the sensitivity of GHG emissions of food demand to spatial variability of energy intensity of irrigation is greater in Indian than US cities. Analysis also finds greater pre‐consumer waste in India versus larger post‐consumer accumulations in the United States. Despite these differences in food system characteristics, food waste management and diet change consistently emerge as key strategies. Among diet scenarios, all vegetarian diets are not found equal in terms of environmental benefit, with the US Government's recommended vegetarian diet resulting in less benefit than other more focused targeted diet changes.     

Foods and Dietary Patterns That Are Healthy,Low-Cost,and Environmentally Sustainable: A Case Study of Optimization Modeling for New Zealand

Objective

Global health challenges include non-communicable disease burdens, ensuring food security in the context of rising food prices, and environmental constraints around food production, e.g., greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions. We therefore aimed to consider optimized solutions to the mix of food items in daily diets for a developed country population: New Zealand (NZ).

Methods

We conducted scenario development and linear programming to model 16 diets (some with uncertainty). Data inputs included nutrients in foods, food prices, food wastage and food-specific GHG emissions.

Findings

This study identified daily dietary patterns that met key nutrient requirements for as little as a median of NZ$ 3.17 per day (US$ 2.41/d) (95% simulation interval [SI] = NZ$ 2.86 to 3.50/d). Diets that included “more familiar meals” for New Zealanders, increased the cost. The optimized diets also had low GHG emission profiles compared with the estimate for the ‘typical NZ diet’ e.g., 1.62 kg CO₂e/d for one scenario (95%SI = 1.39 to 1.85 kg CO₂e) compared with 10.1 kg CO₂e/d, respectively. All of the optimized low-cost and low-GHG dietary patterns had likely health advantages over the current NZ dietary pattern, i.e., lower cardiovascular disease and cancer risk.

Conclusions

We identified optimal foods and dietary patterns that would lower the risk of non-communicable diseases at low cost and with low greenhouse gas emission profiles. These results could help guide central and local government decisions around which foods to focus policies on. That is which foods are most suitable for: food taxes (additions and exemptions); healthy food vouchers and subsidies; and for increased use by public institutions involved in food preparation.     

Regional variations in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of canola‐derived jet fuel produced in western Canada

This study investigates the life cycle GHG emissions of jet fuel produced via the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway from canola grown in western Canada, with a focus on characterizing regional influences on emissions. We examine the effects of geographic variations in soil type, agricultural inputs, farming practices, and direct land use changes on life cycle GHG emissions. We utilize GREET 2016 but replace default feedstock production inputs with geographically representative data for canola production across eight western Canadian regions (representing 99% of Canada's canola production) and replace the default conversion process with data from a novel process model previously developed in ASPEN in our research group wherein oil extraction is integrated with the HEFA‐based fuel production process. Although canola production inputs and yields vary across the regions, resulting life cycle GHG emissions are similar if effects of land use and land management changes (LMC) are not included; 44–48 g CO₂e/MJ for the eight regions (45%–50% reduction compared to petroleum jet fuel). Results are considerably more variable, 16–58 g CO₂e/MJ, when including effects of land use and LMC directly related to conversion of lands from other uses to canola production (34%–82% reduction compared to petroleum jet fuel). We establish the main sources of emissions in the life cycle of canola jet fuel (N‐fertilizer and related emissions, fuel production), identify that substantially higher emissions may occur when using feedstock sourced from regions where conversion of forested land to cropland had occurred, and identify benefits of less intense tillage practices and increased use of summerfallow land. The methods and findings are relevant in jurisdictions internationally that are incorporating GHG emissions reductions from aviation fuels in a low carbon fuel market or legislating carbon intensity reduction requirements.     

Estimating Impacts of Climate Change Policy on Land Use: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

Agriculture is important to New Zealand’s economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer’s decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.     

Reconciling Oil Palm Expansion and Climate Change Mitigation in Kalimantan,Indonesia

Our society faces the pressing challenge of increasing agricultural production while minimizing negative consequences on ecosystems and the global climate. Indonesia, which has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation while doubling production of several major agricultural commodities, exemplifies this challenge. Here we focus on palm oil, the world’s most abundant vegetable oil and a commodity that has contributed significantly to Indonesia’s economy. Most oil palm expansion in the country has occurred at the expense of forests, resulting in significant GHG emissions. We examine the extent to which land management policies can resolve the apparently conflicting goals of oil palm expansion and GHG mitigation in Kalimantan, a major oil palm growing region of Indonesia. Using a logistic regression model to predict the locations of new oil palm between 2010 and 2020 we evaluate the impacts of six alternative policy scenarios on future emissions. We estimate net emissions of 128.4–211.4 MtCO₂ yr^-1 under business as usual expansion of oil palm plantations. The impact of diverting new plantations to low carbon stock land depends on the design of the policy. We estimate that emissions can be reduced by 9-10% by extending the current moratorium on new concessions in primary forests and peat lands, 35% by limiting expansion on all peat and forestlands, 46% by limiting expansion to areas with moderate carbon stocks, and 55–60% by limiting expansion to areas with low carbon stocks. Our results suggest that these policies would reduce oil palm profits only moderately but would vary greatly in terms of cost-effectiveness of emissions reductions. We conclude that a carefully designed and implemented oil palm expansion plan can contribute significantly towards Indonesia’s national emissions mitigation goal, while allowing oil palm area to double.     

PlantACT! – how to tackle the climate crisis

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have created a global climate crisis which requires immediate interventions to mitigate the negative effects on all aspects of life on this planet. As current agriculture and land use contributes up to 25% of total GHG emissions, plant scientists take center stage in finding possible solutions for a transition to sustainable agriculture and land use. In this article, the PlantACT! (Plants for climate ACTion!) initiative of plant scientists lays out a road map of how and in which areas plant scientists can contribute to finding immediate, mid-term, and long-term solutions, and what changes are necessary to implement these solutions at the personal, institutional, and funding levels.     

Embodied Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Diets

Changing food consumption patterns and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. The agricultural sector is one of the major GHG emitters and thus holds a large potential for climate change mitigation through optimal management and dietary changes. We assess this potential, project emissions, and investigate dietary patterns and their changes globally on a per country basis between 1961 and 2007. Sixteen representative and spatially differentiated patterns with a per capita calorie intake ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/day were derived. Detailed analyses show that low calorie diets are decreasing worldwide, while in parallel diet composition is changing as well: a discernable shift towards more balanced diets in developing countries can be observed and steps towards more meat rich diets as a typical characteristics in developed countries. Low calorie diets which are mainly observable in developing countries show a similar emission burden than moderate and high calorie diets. This can be explained by a less efficient calorie production per unit of GHG emissions in developing countries. Very high calorie diets are common in the developed world and exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7–6.1 kg CO_2eq./day due to high carbon intensity and high intake of animal products. In case of an unbridled demographic growth and changing dietary patterns the projected emissions from agriculture will approach 20 Gt CO_2eq./yr by 2050.     

Ecosystem model parameterization and adaptation for sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design

Renewable fuel standards in the US and elsewhere mandate the production of large quantities of cellulosic biofuels with low greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints, a requirement which will likely entail extensive cultivation of dedicated bioenergy feedstock crops on marginal agricultural lands. Performance data for such systems is sparse, and non‐linear interactions between the feedstock species, agronomic management intensity, and underlying soil and land characteristics complicate the development of sustainable landscape design strategies for low‐impact commercial‐scale feedstock production. Process‐based ecosystem models are valuable for extrapolating field trial results and making predictions of productivity and associated environmental impacts that integrate the effects of spatially variable environmental factors across diverse production landscapes. However, there are few examples of ecosystem model parameterization against field trials on both prime and marginal lands or of conducting landscape‐scale analyses at sufficient resolution to capture interactions between soil type, land use, and management intensity. In this work we used a data‐diverse, multi‐criteria approach to parameterize and validate the DayCent biogeochemistry model for upland and lowland switchgrass using data on yields, soil carbon changes, and soil nitrous oxide emissions from US field trials spanning a range of climates, soil types, and management conditions. We then conducted a high‐resolution case study analysis of a real‐world cellulosic biofuel landscape in Kansas in order to estimate feedstock production potential and associated direct biogenic GHG emissions footprint. Our results suggest that switchgrass yields and emissions balance can vary greatly across a landscape large enough to supply a biorefinery in response to variations in soil type and land‐use history, but that within a given land base both of these performance factors can be widely modulated by changing management intensity. This in turn implies a large sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design space within which a system can be optimized to meet economic or environmental objectives.     

Global environmental costs of China's thirst for milk

China has an ever‐increasing thirst for milk, with a predicted 3.2‐fold increase in demand by 2050 compared to the production level in 2010. What are the environmental implications of meeting this demand, and what is the preferred pathway? We addressed these questions by using a nexus approach, to examine the interdependencies of increasing milk consumption in China by 2050 and its global impacts, under different scenarios of domestic milk production and importation. Meeting China's milk demand in a business as usual scenario will increase global dairy‐related (China and the leading milk exporting regions) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 35% (from 565 to 764 Tg CO_2eq) and land use for dairy feed production by 32% (from 84 to 111 million ha) compared to 2010, while reactive nitrogen losses from the dairy sector will increase by 48% (from 3.6 to 5.4 Tg nitrogen). Producing all additional milk in China with current technology will greatly increase animal feed import; from 1.9 to 8.5 Tg for concentrates and from 1.0 to 6.2 Tg for forage (alfalfa). In addition, it will increase domestic dairy related GHG emissions by 2.2 times compared to 2010 levels. Importing the extra milk will transfer the environmental burden from China to milk exporting countries; current dairy exporting countries may be unable to produce all additional milk due to physical limitations or environmental preferences/legislation. For example, the farmland area for cattle‐feed production in New Zealand would have to increase by more than 57% (1.3 million ha) and that in Europe by more than 39% (15 million ha), while GHG emissions and nitrogen losses would increase roughly proportionally with the increase of farmland in both regions. We propose that a more sustainable dairy future will rely on high milk demanding regions (such as China) improving their domestic milk and feed production efficiencies up to the level of leading milk producing countries. This will decrease the global dairy related GHG emissions and land use by 12% (90 Tg CO_2eq reduction) and 30% (34 million ha land reduction) compared to the business as usual scenario, respectively. However, this still represents an increase in total GHG emissions of 19% whereas land use will decrease by 8% when compared with 2010 levels, respectively.     

Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Offshore Fisheries of the Republic of Korea

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from the offshore fisheries industry in the Republic of Korea (Korea) were examined in response to growing concerns about global warming and the contribution of emissions from different industrial sectors. Fuel usage and GHG emissions (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O) were analysed using the ‘Tier 1’ method provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from the offshore fishery, which is the primary domestic seafood production sector in Korea. In 2013, fuel usage in the offshore fishery accounted for 59.7% (557,463 KL) of total fuel consumption of fishing vessels in Korea. Fuel consumption and thus GHG emissions were not stable through time in this industry, increasing by 2.4% p.a. for three consecutive years, from 2011 to 2013, despite a decrease in the number of vessels operating. GHG emissions generated in offshore fisheries also changed through time and increased from 1,442,975 tCO₂e/year in 2011 to 1,477,279 tCO₂e/year in 2013. Changes in both fuel use and GHG emissions per kg offshore fish production appeared to be associated with decreasing catch rates by the fleet, which in turn were a reflection of decrease in fish biomass. Another important feature of GHG emissions in this industry was the high variation in GHG emission per kg fish product among different fishing methods. The long line fishery had approximately three times the emissions of the average production while the jigging fishery was more than two times higher than the average. Lowest emissions were from the trawl sector, which is regarded as having greatest environmental impact using traditional biodiversity metrics although had lowest environmental impact in terms of fuel and GHG emission metrics used in this study. The observed deterioration in fuel efficiency of the offshore fishery each year is of concern but also demonstrates that fuel efficiency can change, which shows there is opportunity to improve efficiency with changes to fishery management and harvesting operations.     

Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates of U.S. Dietary Choices and Food Loss

Dietary behavioral choices have a strong effect on the environmental impact associated with the food system. Here, we consider the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with production of food that is lost at the retail and consumer level, as well as the potential effects on GHG emissions of a shift to dietary recommendations. Calculations are based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) food availability data set and literature meta‐analysis of emission factors for various food types. Food losses contribute 1.4 kilograms (kg) carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂‐eq) capita^?1day^?1 (28%) to the overall carbon footprint of the average U.S. diet; in total, this is equivalent to the emissions of 33 million average passenger vehicles annually. Whereas beef accounts for only 4% of the retail food supply by weight, it represents 36% of the diet‐related GHG emissions. An iso‐caloric shift from the current average U.S. diet to USDA dietary recommendations could result in a 12% increase in diet‐related GHG emissions, whereas a shift that includes a decrease in caloric intake, based on the needs of the population (assuming moderate activity), results in a small (1%) decrease in diet‐related GHG emissions. These findings emphasize the need to consider environmental costs of food production in formulating recommended food patterns.     

Environmental Impact of the Production of Mealworms as a Protein Source for Humans – A Life Cycle Assessment

The demand for animal protein is expected to rise by 70–80% between 2012 and 2050, while the current animal production sector already causes major environmental degradation. Edible insects are suggested as a more sustainable source of animal protein. However, few experimental data regarding environmental impact of insect production are available. Therefore, a lifecycle assessment for mealworm production was conducted, in which greenhouse gas production, energy use and land use were quantified and compared to conventional sources of animal protein. Production of one kg of edible protein from milk, chicken, pork or beef result in higher greenhouse gas emissions, require similar amounts of energy and require much more land. This study demonstrates that mealworms should be considered a more sustainable source of edible protein.     

Animal board invited review: Animal agriculture and alternative meats – learning from past science communication failures

Sustainability discussions bring in multiple competing goals, and the outcomes are often conflicting depending upon which goal is being given credence. The role of livestock in supporting human well-being is especially contentious in discourses around sustainable diets. There is considerable variation in which environmental metrics are measured when describing sustainable diets, although some estimate of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of different diets based on varying assumptions is commonplace. A market for animal-free and manufactured food items to substitute for animal source food (ASF) has emerged, driven by the high GHG emissions of ASF. Ingredients sourced from plants, and animal cells grown in culture are two approaches employed to produce alternative meats. These can be complemented with ingredients produced using synthetic biology. Alternative meat companies promise to reduce GHG, the land and water used for food production, and reduce or eliminate animal agriculture. Some CEOs have even claimed alternative meats will ‘end world hunger’. Rarely do such self-proclamations emanate from scientists, but rather from companies in their efforts to attract venture capital investment and market share. Such declarations are reminiscent of the early days of the biotechnology industry. At that time, special interest groups employed fear-based tactics to effectively turn public opinion against the use of genetic engineering to introduce sustainability traits, like disease resistance and nutrient fortification, into global genetic improvement programs. These same groups have recently turned their sights on the ‘unnaturalness’ and use of synthetic biology in the production of meat alternatives, leaving agriculturists in a quandary. Much of the rationale behind alternative meats invokes a simplistic narrative, with a primary focus on GHG emissions, ignoring the nutritional attributes and dietary importance of ASF, and livelihoods that are supported by grazing ruminant production systems. Diets with low GHG emissions are often described as sustainable, even though the nutritional, social and economic pillars of sustainability are not considered. Nutritionists, geneticists, and veterinarians have been extremely successful at developing new technologies to reduce the environmental footprint of ASF. Further technological developments are going to be requisite to continuously improve the efficiency of animal source, plant source, and cultured meat production. Perhaps there is an opportunity to collectively communicate how innovations are enabling both alternative- and conventional-meat producers to more sustainably meet future demand. This could counteract the possibility that special interest groups who promulgate misinformation, fear and uncertainty, will hinder the adoption of technological innovations to the ultimate detriment of global food security.     

GHG emissions and other environmental impacts of indirect land use change mitigation

The implementation of measures to increase productivity and resource efficiency in food and bioenergy chains as well as to more sustainably manage land use can significantly increase the biofuel production potential while limiting the risk of causing indirect land use change (ILUC). However, the application of these measures may influence the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and other environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production. This study applies a novel, integrated approach to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production for three ILUC mitigation scenarios, representing a low, medium and high miscanthus‐based ethanol production potential, and for three agricultural intensification pathways in terms of sustainability in Lublin province in 2020. Generally, the ILUC mitigation scenarios attain lower net annual emissions compared to a baseline scenario that excludes ILUC mitigation and bioethanol production. However, the reduction potential significantly depends on the intensification pathway considered. For example, in the moderate ILUC mitigation scenario, the net annual GHG emissions in the case study are 2.3 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (1.8 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for conventional intensification and ?0.8 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (?0.6 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for sustainable intensification, compared to 3.0 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (2.3 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) in the baseline scenario. In addition, the intensification pathway is found to be more influential for the GHG balance than the ILUC mitigation scenario, indicating the importance of how agricultural intensification is implemented in practice. Furthermore, when the net emissions are included in the assessment of GHG emissions from bioenergy, the ILUC mitigation scenarios often abate GHG emissions compared to gasoline. But sustainable intensification is required to attain GHG abatement potentials of 90% or higher. A qualitative assessment of the impacts on biodiversity, water quantity and quality, soil quality and air quality also emphasizes the importance of sustainable intensification.     

The good,the bad,and the future: Systematic review identifies best use of biomass to meet air quality and climate policies in California

California has large and diverse biomass resources and provides a pertinent example of how biomass use is changing and needs to change, in the face of climate mitigation policies. As in other areas of the world, California needs to optimize its use of biomass and waste to meet environmental and socioeconomic objectives. We used a systematic review to assess biomass use pathways in California and the associated impacts on climate and air quality. Biomass uses included the production of renewable fuels, electricity, biochar, compost, and other marketable products. For those biomass use pathways recently developed, information is available on the effects—usually beneficial—on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and there is some, but less, published information on the effects on criteria pollutants. Our review identifies 34 biomass use pathways with beneficial impacts on either GHG or pollutant emissions, or both—the “good.” These included combustion of forest biomass for power and conversion of livestock-associated biomass to biogas by anaerobic digestion. The review identified 13 biomass use pathways with adverse impacts on GHG emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, or both—the “bad.” Wildfires are an example of one out of eight pathways which were found to be bad for both climate and air quality, while only two biomass use pathways reduced GHG emissions relative to an identified counterfactual but had adverse air quality impacts. Issues of high interest for the “future” included land management to reduce fire risk, future policies for the dairy industries, and full life-cycle analysis of biomass production and use.