Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T_b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T_b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage‐specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with T_b, to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.     

Disgust sensitivity relates to affective responses to – but not ability to detect – olfactory cues to pathogens

Hundreds of studies have assessed variation in the degree to which people experience disgust toward substances associated with pathogens, but little is known about the mechanistic sources of this variation. The current investigation uses olfactory perception and threshold methods to test whether it is apparent at the cue-detection level, at the cue-interpretation level, or both. It further tests whether relations between disgust sensitivity and olfactory perception are specific to odors associated with pathogens. Two studies (N's = 119 and 160) of individuals sampled from a Dutch university each revealed that pathogen disgust sensitivity relates to valence perceptions of odors found in pathogen sources, but not to valence perceptions of odors not associated with pathogens, nor to intensity perceptions of odors of either type. Study 2, which also assessed olfactory thresholds via a three-alternative forced-choice staircase method, did not reveal a relation between pathogen disgust sensitivity and the ability to detect an odor associated with pathogens, nor an odor not associated with pathogens. In total, results are consistent with the idea that pathogen disgust sensitivity relates to how olfactory pathogen cues are interpreted after detection, but not necessarily to the ability to detect such cues.     

What to do, or how to do it?

In this issue of Neuron, Ajemian et al. present a computational model of the activity of neurons in primary motor cortex (M1) during isometric movements in different postures. By modeling the output of M1 neurons in terms of their influence on muscles, they find each M1 neuron maps its output into a particular pattern of muscle actions.     

PlantACT! – how to tackle the climate crisis

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have created a global climate crisis which requires immediate interventions to mitigate the negative effects on all aspects of life on this planet. As current agriculture and land use contributes up to 25% of total GHG emissions, plant scientists take center stage in finding possible solutions for a transition to sustainable agriculture and land use. In this article, the PlantACT! (Plants for climate ACTion!) initiative of plant scientists lays out a road map of how and in which areas plant scientists can contribute to finding immediate, mid-term, and long-term solutions, and what changes are necessary to implement these solutions at the personal, institutional, and funding levels.     

Biodiversity monitoring: some proposals to adequately study species’ responses to climate change

Climate change affects all levels of biology and is a major threat for biodiversity. Hence, it is fundamental to run biodiversity monitoring programs to understand the effects of climate change on the biota and to be able to adjust management and conservation accordingly. So far, however, very few existing monitoring programs allow for the detection of climate change effects, as shown by a survey undertaken by the European project EuMon. Despite this shortcoming, several methods exist which allow to make inferences from existing data by integrating data across different monitoring programs: correlative analyses, meta-analyses and models. In addition, experiments are thought to be useful tools to understand the effects of climate change on plants and animals. Here, we evaluate the utility of these four main approaches. All these methods allow to evaluate long term effects of climate change and make predictions of species’ future development, but they are arguable. We list and compare their benefits and inconveniences, which can lead to uncertainties in the extrapolation of species responses to global climate change. Individual characteristics and population parameters have to be more frequently monitored. The potential evolution of a species should be also modelled, to extrapolate results across spatial and temporal scales as well as to analyse the combined effects of different climatic and biotic factors, including intra but also interspecific relationships. We conclude that a combination of methodologies would be the most promising tool for the assessment of biological responses to climate change, and we provide some thoughts about how to do so. Particularly, we encourage long-term studies along natural gradients (altitudinal or latitudinal) on the same species/habitats to be able to extrapolate to large geographic scales, and to have more complete data sets, necessary to understand the mechanisms of responses. Such data may provide a more accurate base for simulations across spatial and temporal scales, especially if they are publicly available in a common database. These recommendations could allow the adaptation of species management and the development of conservation tools to climate change which threatens species.     

Mycorrhizal responses to biochar in soil – concepts and mechanisms

Experiments suggest that biomass-derived black carbon (biochar) affects microbial populations and soil biogeochemistry. Both biochar and mycorrhizal associations, ubiquitous symbioses in terrestrial ecosystems, are potentially important in various ecosystem services provided by soils, contributing to sustainable plant production, ecosystem restoration, and soil carbon sequestration and hence mitigation of global climate change. As both biochar and mycorrhizal associations are subject to management, understanding and exploiting interactions between them could be advantageous. Here we focus on biochar effects on mycorrhizal associations. After reviewing the experimental evidence for such effects, we critically examine hypotheses pertaining to four mechanisms by which biochar could influence mycorrhizal abundance and/or functioning. These mechanisms are (in decreasing order of currently available evidence supporting them): (a) alteration of soil physico-chemical properties; (b) indirect effects on mycorrhizae through effects on other soil microbes; (c) plant–fungus signaling interference and detoxification of allelochemicals on biochar; and (d) provision of refugia from fungal grazers. We provide a roadmap for research aimed at testing these mechanistic hypotheses.     

Sows’ responses to increased heat load – A review

There is a comprehensive body of literature on how increased air temperature affects the physiology, production and behaviour of sows, while very few studies consider the thermal effects of air humidity and air velocity.This review summarises studies that have investigated effects of air temperature by reviewing published literature in which sows were exposed to at least two different levels of air temperature ranging from 15 °C to 39 °C. Increased rectal temperature was investigated in the majority of the studies (26) and on average, the rectal temperature increased by 0.099 °C per °C increased air temperature above 25 °C. The increase was smaller at lower air temperatures, and it was suggested that rectal temperature is practically unaffected by air temperatures in the range of 15 °C–21 °C. This review elucidates how air temperature also affects performance indicators such as respiration rate, vaginal temperature, skin temperature, feed intake, milk yield, body weight loss during lactation, mortality, litter daily weight gain during lactation and sow behaviour.One study reported how respiration rate, rectal temperature, vaginal temperature and skin temperature were affected by both air temperature and air humidity, and the results suggest that the relative significance of air temperature and humidity may be similar for sows and finishing pigs (e.g. an increase of 40% relative humidity at an air temperature of 30 °C has a similar effect as a 1.9 °C increase in temperature).Studies on mitigation methods against the effects of high temperature and humidity such as snout cooling, drip cooling and floor cooling were reviewed to extract knowledge related to the effects of air velocity, temperatures of surrounding surfaces and the opportunity for sows to moisten their skin.     

A trait‐based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Estimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait‐based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15 000 virtual mammals with life histories that reflect those seen in the real world. Covariances among life‐history traits are estimated from an extensive terrestrial mammal data set using Bayesian inference. We elucidate the relative roles of different life‐history traits in driving modelled spread rates, demonstrating that any one alone will be a poor predictor. We also estimate that around 30% of mammal species have potential spread rates slower than the global mean velocity of climate change. This novel trait‐space‐demographic modelling approach has broad applicability for tackling many key ecological questions for which we have the models but are hindered by data availability.     

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species'' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change.     

Trade-offs between the reproductive and immune systems: facultative responses to resources or obligate responses to reproduction?

A major challenge in biology is understanding how organisms partition limited resources among physiological processes. For example, offspring production and self-maintenance are important for fitness and survival, yet these critical processes often compete for resources. While physiological trade-offs between reproduction and immune function have been documented, their regulation remains unclear. Most current evidence suggests that physiological changes during specific reproductive states directly suppress various components of the immune system; however, some studies have not found this clear relationship. We performed two experiments in female tree lizards (Urosaurus ornatus) that demonstrate the presence of trade-offs between the reproductive and immune systems under controlled laboratory conditions. These results also support the hypothesis that these trade-offs are a facultative response to resource availability and are not obligatory responses to physiological changes during reproduction. We found that (1) experimentally increasing reproductive investment under limited resources resulted in suppressed immune function and (2) experimentally limiting resources resulted in immunosuppression but only during resource costly reproductive activities. There seems to be a critical balance of resources that is maintained between multiple processes, and changes in the balance between energy intake and output can have major consequences for immune function.     

Human T-cell responses to malaria: mostly forgotten or committed to memory?

T cells have been implicated in both malaria immunity and malaria disease and factors controlling the maintenance of T-cell responses over time may alter the clinical outcome o f infection. Michael Good and Janine Bilsborough have compared the T-cell responses to epitopes from the Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum circumsporozoite proteins and here discuss the issue of T-cell memory as it applies to malaria.     

Exploring lake ecosystems: hierarchy responses to long‐term change?

Shifts in climate regime have provoked substantial trophic‐ and species‐dependent changes within ecosystems. With growing concerns of present global warming, we examined potential lake ecosystem responses, natural hierarchy responses (i.e. immediate responses at lower system levels as opposed to delayed responses at higher system levels), and possible shifts among abiotic (physics, nutrients) and biotic (phytoplankton, zooplankton) system components. Specifically, we analyzed decadal data collected from Müggelsee, a lake in Berlin, Germany, for climate‐induced abiotic and biotic changes, their timing and type, and classified them as abrupt permanent, gradual permanent, abrupt temporary, or monotonic. We further categorized variable changes as a function of system hierarchy, including lake physics (ice, temperature, stratification), nutrients (phosphorus, nitrogen, silicate), plankton, and levels of integration (i.e. species, taxonomic groups, and total plankton). Contrary to current theory, data suggest abrupt responses did not occur in a hierarchy‐dependent manner, nor was a clear pattern observed among functional system‐based categories. Abrupt permanent changes were the most prominent response pattern observed, suggesting they may be driven by large‐scale climatic oscillations and by surpassed thresholds, as noted in previous case studies. Gradual changes coincided with affected abiotic parameters spanning an expansive time range; for example, climatic effects in spring preceded changes in nutrient limitation. Variables displaying no long‐term changes pointed to compensation processes caused by, e.g., simultaneously acting forces of warming trends and climate‐independent changes in trophic state. Nevertheless, the complexity of response patterns at the single system level manifested clear chronological regime shifts in abiotic and biotic parameters in spring and, to a lesser extent, in summer. With regard to projected global warming, the majority of currently unaffected system levels may face impending thermal thresholds, achievement of which would result in an accelerated shift in ecosystem state.     

Will variation among genetic individuals influence species responses to global climate change?

Increased anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in the last two centuries have lead to rising sea surface temperature and falling ocean pH, and it is predicted that current global trends will worsen over the next few decades. There is limited understanding of how genetic variation among individuals will influence the responses of populations and species to these changes. A microcosm system was set up to study the effects of predicted temperature and CO₂ levels on the bryozoan Celleporella hyalina. In this marine species, colonies grow by the addition of male, female and feeding modular individuals (zooids) and can be physically subdivided to produce a clone of genetically identical colonies. We studied colony growth rate (the addition of zooids), reproductive investment (the ratio of sexual to feeding zooids) and sex ratio (male to female zooids) in four genetically distinct clonal lines. There was a significant effect of clone on growth rate, reproductive investment and sex ratio, with clones showing contrasting responses to the various temperature and pH combinations. Overall, decreasing pH and increasing temperature caused reduction of growth, and eventual cessation of growth was often observed at the highest temperature, especially during the latter half of the 15‐day trials. Reproductive investment increased with increasing temperature and decreasing pH, varying more widely with temperature at the lowest pH. The increased production of males, a general stress response of the bryozoan, was seen upon exposure to reduced pH, but was not expressed at the highest temperature tested, presumably due to the frequent cessation of growth. Further to the significant effect of pH on the measured whole‐colony parameters, observation by scanning electron microscopy revealed surface pitting of the calcified exoskeleton in colonies that were exposed to increased acidity. Studying ecologically relevant processes of growth and reproduction, we demonstrate the existence of relevant levels of variation among genetic individuals which may enable future adaptation via non‐mutational natural selection to falling pH and rising temperature.     

Localized cellular responses to Ichthyophthirius multifiliis: protection or pathogenesis?

The ciliate Ichthyophthirius multifiliis is an economically important parasite in aquaculture as well as in the ornamental fish trade. The parasite has been well studied and details of life cycle, host response and pathogenesis have been characterized. Parasite development within host epithelial tissues initiates localized leukocytic infiltrations, although the relationship between these responses and host resistance is uncertain, and whether or not leukocyte responses play a role in protective immunity is unclear. Here Frank Cross outlines the character of localized cellular responses during I. multifiliis infection and discusses the contribution of such responses to protective immunity and pathogenesis.     

Can neutral theory predict the responses of Amazonian tree communities to forest fragmentation?

We use Hubbell's neutral theory to predict the impact of habitat fragmentation on Amazonian tree communities. For forest fragments isolated for about two decades, we generate neutral predictions for local species extinction, changes in species composition within fragments, and increases in the probability that any two trees within a fragment are conspecific. We tested these predictions using fragment and intact forest data from the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project in central Amazonia. To simulate complete demographic isolation, we excluded immigrants--species absent from a fragment or intact forest plot in the initial census but present in its last census--from our tests. The neutral theory correctly predicted the rate of species extinction from different plots as a function of the diversity and mortality rate of trees in each plot. However, the rate of change in species composition was much faster than predicted in fragments, indicating that different tree species respond differently to environmental changes. This violates the key assumption of neutral theory. When immigrants were included in our calculations, they increased the disparity between predicted and observed changes in fragments. Overall, neutral theory accurately predicted the pace of local extinctions in fragments but consistently underestimated changes in species composition.     

BIOFRAG – a new database for analyzing BIOdiversity responses to forest FRAGmentation

Habitat fragmentation studies have produced complex results that are challenging to synthesize. Inconsistencies among studies may result from variation in the choice of landscape metrics and response variables, which is often compounded by a lack of key statistical or methodological information. Collating primary datasets on biodiversity responses to fragmentation in a consistent and flexible database permits simple data retrieval for subsequent analyses. We present a relational database that links such field data to taxonomic nomenclature, spatial and temporal plot attributes, and environmental characteristics. Field assessments include measurements of the response(s) (e.g., presence, abundance, ground cover) of one or more species linked to plots in fragments within a partially forested landscape. The database currently holds 9830 unique species recorded in plots of 58 unique landscapes in six of eight realms: mammals 315, birds 1286, herptiles 460, insects 4521, spiders 204, other arthropods 85, gastropods 70, annelids 8, platyhelminthes 4, Onychophora 2, vascular plants 2112, nonvascular plants and lichens 320, and fungi 449. Three landscapes were sampled as long-term time series (>10 years). Seven hundred and eleven species are found in two or more landscapes. Consolidating the substantial amount of primary data available on biodiversity responses to fragmentation in the context of land-use change and natural disturbances is an essential part of understanding the effects of increasing anthropogenic pressures on land. The consistent format of this database facilitates testing of generalizations concerning biologic responses to fragmentation across diverse systems and taxa. It also allows the re-examination of existing datasets with alternative landscape metrics and robust statistical methods, for example, helping to address pseudo-replication problems. The database can thus help researchers in producing broad syntheses of the effects of land use. The database is dynamic and inclusive, and contributions from individual and large-scale data-collection efforts are welcome.     

Phenology of high-arctic butterflies and their floral resources： Species-specific responses to climate change

Current global warming is particularly pronounced in the Arctic and arthropods are expected to respond rapidly to these changes. Long-term studies of individual arthropod species from the Arctic are, however, virtually absent. We examined butterfly specimens collected from yellow pitfall traps over 14 years （1996-2009） at Zackenberg in high-arctic, north-east Greenland. Specimens were previously sorted to the family level. We identified them to the species level and examined long-term species-specific phenological responses to recent summer wanning. Two species were rare in the samples （Polaris fritillary Boloria polaris and Arctic blue Plebejus glandon） and statistical analyses of phenological responses were therefore restricted to the two most abundant species （Arctic fritillary, B. chariclea and Northern clouded yellow Colias hecla）. Our analyses demonstrated a trend towards earlier flight seasons in B. chariclea, but not in C. hecla. The timing of onset, peak and end of the flight season in B. chariclea were closely related to snowmelt, July temperature and their interaction, whereas onset, peak and end of the flight season in C. hecla were only related to timing of snowmelt. The duration of the butterfly flight season was significantly positively related to the temporal overlap with floral resources in both butterfly species. We further demonstrate that yellow pitfall traps are a useful alternative to transect walks for butterfly recording in tundra habitats. More phenological studies of Arctic arthropods should be carded out at the species level and ideally be analysed in context with interacting species to assess how ongoing climate change will affect Arctic biodiversity in the near future [Current Zoology 60 （2）： 243-251, 2014].