Analysis of lambing distribution in the Ripollesa sheep breed. II. Environmental and genetic sources of variation

Seasonal reproduction patterns are typically observed in small ruminants and are a major limitation for production efficiency in most meat- and dairy-type production systems. Indeed, selection for reduced seasonality could be an appealing strategy for the small ruminant industry worldwide, although its genetic background has been poorly analyzed. One of the main limitations relied on the availability of appropriate analytical tools to cope with the circular (i.e. year-round) pattern of lambing and kidding data. The recent development of a heteroskedastic circular mixed model provided the statistical tool to go deeply into the knowledge of seasonality in small ruminants. In this study, 26 005 lambing distribution records from 4764 Ripollesa ewes collected in 20 purebred flocks were analyzed. The model accounted for systematic (lambing interval and ewe age), permanent environmental (flock-year-season and ewe) and additive genetic sources of variation influencing both mean and dispersion pattern (i.e. heteroskedasticity). Systematic effects suggested that first-lambing ewes and short lambing intervals delayed lambing date (~30 days) and increased dispersion of the lambing period. Nevertheless, this was partially compensated by ewe age, given that youngest females tended to concentrate the lambing peak. Flock-year-season, permanent ewe and additive genetic sources of variation reached moderate variance components for direct (and residual) effects on lambing distribution, they being 0.119 (0.156), 0.092 (0.132) and 0.195 (0.170) radians², respectively. Moreover, all 95% credibility intervals were placed far from the null estimate. Covariances between direct and residual effects where high and positive for additive genetic (posterior mean, 0.814) and permanent ewe effects (posterior mean, 0.917), whereas it was not relevant for flock-year-season. Selection for direct additive genetic effects should be able to advance or delay the lambing peak, whereas selection applied on residual additive genetic effects should increase or reduce seasonality (i.e. concentrate or flatten the lambing peak). Moreover, the positive and relevant genetic covariance between direct and residual effects also suggested correlated genetic responses. As example, genetic selection for earlier lambing peaks must also reduce seasonality, whereas selection for narrower lambing seasons may originate a delay in the lambing peak. These results must be viewed as the first attempt to analyze systematic, environmental and genetic sources of variation of lambing distribution within the circular paradigm, they providing a reliable characterization of these effects within the context of an heteroskedastic model.     

Bayesian predictive information criterion for the evaluation of hierarchical Bayesian and empirical Bayes models

The problem of evaluating the goodness of the predictive distributionsof hierarchical Bayesian and empirical Bayes models is investigated.A Bayesian predictive information criterion is proposed as anestimator of the posterior mean of the expected loglikelihoodof the predictive distribution when the specified family ofprobability distributions does not contain the true distribution.The proposed criterion is developed by correcting the asymptoticbias of the posterior mean of the loglikelihood as an estimatorof its expected loglikelihood. In the evaluation of hierarchicalBayesian models with random effects, regardless of our parametricfocus, the proposed criterion considers the bias correctionof the posterior mean of the marginal loglikelihood becauseit requires a consistent parameter estimator. The use of thebootstrap in model evaluation is also discussed.     

Bayesian Model Selection for Incomplete Data Using the Posterior Predictive Distribution

Summary We explore the use of a posterior predictive loss criterion for model selection for incomplete longitudinal data. We begin by identifying a property that most model selection criteria for incomplete data should consider. We then show that a straightforward extension of the Gelfand and Ghosh (1998, Biometrika, 85 , 1–11) criterion to incomplete data has two problems. First, it introduces an extra term (in addition to the goodness of fit and penalty terms) that compromises the criterion. Second, it does not satisfy the aforementioned property. We propose an alternative and explore its properties via simulations and on a real dataset and compare it to the deviance information criterion (DIC). In general, the DIC outperforms the posterior predictive criterion, but the latter criterion appears to work well overall and is very easy to compute unlike the DIC in certain classes of models for missing data.     

The relationship of libido and serving capacity test scores in rams on conception rates and lambing percentage in the ewe

A procedure for assessing sexual activity (libido) and serving capacity (number of ejaculations) in individual rams is described. Libido and serving capacity was measured by this procedure in 10 Lincoln, 10 Suffolk, 2 Columbia, and 2 Polypay rams prior to the breeding season. Semen was evaluated, and the scrotal circumference measured. The rams were single-sire mated to 10-12 whiteface, crossbred ewes during a 35-day breeding season (September 26 - October 29). First-service conception rates, total conception rate, lambing percentage per ewe lambing, and lambing percentage per ewe exposed were calculated for each ram. The mean libido score for the 24 rams was 8.95 and the mean serving capacity score was 3.16. The 24 rams were classified as low serving capacity (<2 ejaculation), medium serving capacity (2-3 ejaculations), or high serving capacity (>3 ejaculations). There were no significant differences in either conception rate or lambing percentages between the 3 groups of rams. The first-service conception rate, total conception rate, lambing percentage per ewe lambing, and lambing percentage per ewe exposed were 74.8, 93.8, 148.6, and 139.4 percent, respectively, for the 24 rams. Libido and serving capacity tests in the rams, as used in this experiment, prior to the breeding season, were not successful in predicting fertility or prolificacy in ewes.     

种子植物区系属大小与种多度分布格局的相似性

对属大小的分析是植物区系研究的重要组成,属大小的分布格局可以在一定程度上反映植物区系的类群多样性与系统发生多样性。在植物区系研究中,平均属大小指标与植物区系包含的物种数有关,使不同植物区系的研究结果难以进行整合分析。对中国8个地区种子植物区系属大小的分布格局进行研究,对数级数模型取得了良好的拟合结果,拟合优度R²＞0.99,属大小表现出与种—多度相似的分布格局。稀疏分析和相关分析结果表明：抽样大小较小时,平均属大小在稀疏分析前后的相关性不显著;而对数级数模型中α指数与稀疏分析前表现出稳定的相关性。同时,对于相同的抽样大小α指数与平均属大小之间存在显著的相关性。因此,α指数可以作为稳定的指标来描述植物区系的丰富程度。     

Artificial insemination of ewes with frozen-thawed semen at a synchronized oestrus. 1. Effect of time of onset of oestrus, ovulation and insemination on fertility

In three experiments, the onset of oestrus, time of ovulation and lambing after intrauterine insemination with frozen-thawed semen were examined following synchronisation of oestrus using intravaginal progestagen-impregnated sponges (inserted for 12 days) and an injection of PMSG at sponge removal.

The number (and percentage) of ewes detected in oestrus 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 h after sponge removal was 1 (0.3), 2 (0.6), 17 (5.2), 120 (36.7), 65 (20.0) and 10 (3.1) respectively. One hundred and twelve ewes (34.3%) remained unmarked. Egg fertilisation rates were not different between ewes irrespective of time of onset of oestrus or whether or not ewes were marked.

The median time of ovulation with respect to sponge removal (with 95% fiducial limits) for ewes joined with vasectomised rams (10:1) at spronge removal (teased ewes) was 55.8 h (54.61–57.09) and for unteased ewes 59.7 h (58.27–61.12).

In the third experiment, a total of 394 ewes were inseminated by laparoscopy with frozen-thawed semen. The percentage of ewes lambing and lambs born per ewe inseminated, and number of lambs born per ewe lambing for inseminations 48, 60, 72 and 78 h after sponge removal were 45.9, 57.7 and 1.25; 55.1, 72.0 and 1.31; 57.4, 80.9 and 1.41; and 39.3, 60.7 and 1.54, and for 59 control ewes receiving fresh semen by cervical insemination 47.5, 69.5 and 1.46 respectively. The lambing data after insemination with frozen semen was not different to that of the controls. The percentage of ewes lambing and lambs born per ewe inseminated increased with time of insemination at 48, 60 and 72 h (linear, P < 0.01) but was lower for inseminations at 78 h after sponge removal. Number of lambs born per ewe lambing increased with time of insemination after sponge removal (linear, P < 0.05).     

Comparison of non-linear growth models to describe the growth curve in West African Dwarf sheep

The objectives of this study were to compare the goodness of fit of four non-linear growth models, i.e. Brody, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy, in West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep. A total of 5274 monthly weight records from birth up to 180 days of age from 889 lambs, collected during 2001 to 2004 in Betecoucou breeding farm in Benin were used. In the preliminary analysis, the General Linear Model Procedure of the Statistical Analysis Systems Institute was applied to the dataset to identify the significant effects of the sex of lamb (male and female), type of birth (single and twin), season of birth (rainy season and dry season), parity of dam (1, 2 and 3) and year of birth (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004) on the observed birth weight and monthly weight up to 6 months of age. The models parameters (A, B and k), coefficient of determination (R²), mean square error (MSE) were calculated using language of technical computing package Matlab®, 2006. The mean values of A, B and k were substituted into each model to calculate the corresponding Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Among the four growth functions, the Brody model has been selected for its accuracy of fit according to the higher R², lower MSE and AIC. Finally, the parameters A, B and k were adjusted in Matlab®, 2006 for the sex of lamb, year of birth, season of birth, birth type and the parity of ewe, providing a specific slope of the Brody growth curve. The results of this study suggest that Brody model can be useful for WAD sheep breeding in Betecoucou farm conditions through growth monitoring.     

Risk factors associated with lambing traits

The objective of this study was to establish the risk factors associated with both lambing difficulty and lamb mortality in the Irish sheep multibreed population. A total of 135 470 lambing events from 42 675 ewes in 839 Irish crossbred and purebred flocks were available. Risk factors associated with producer-scored ewe lambing difficulty score (scale of one (no difficulty) to four (severe difficulty)) were determined using linear mixed models. Risk factors associated with the logit of the probability of lamb mortality at birth (i.e. binary trait) were determined using generalised estimating equations. For each dependent variable, a series of simple regression models were developed as well as a multiple regression model. In the simple regression models, greater lambing difficulty was associated with quadruplet bearing, younger ewes, of terminal breed origin, lambing in February; for example, first parity ewes experienced greater (P<0.001) lambing difficulty (1.56±0.02) than older ewes. The association between lambing difficulty and all factors persisted in the multiple regression model, and the trend in fixed effects level solutions did not differ from the trend observed in the simple regression models. In the simple regression analyses, a greater odds of lamb mortality was associated with male lambs (1.31 times more likely of death than females), lambs of very light (2 to 3 kg) and very heavy (>7.0 kg) birth weights, quadruplet born lambs and lambs that experienced a more difficult lambing (predicted probability of death for lambs that required severe and veterinary assistance of 0.15 and 0.32, respectively); lambs from dual-purpose breeds and born to younger ewes were also at greater risk of mortality. In the multiple regression model, the association between ewe parity, age at first lambing, year of lambing and lamb mortality no longer persisted. The trend in solutions of the levels of each fixed effect that remained associated with lamb mortality in the multiple regression model, did not differ from the trends observed in the simple regression models although the differential in relative risk between the different lambing difficulty scores was greater in the multiple regression model. Results from this study show that many common flock- and animal-level factors are associated with both lambing difficulty and lamb mortality and management of different risk category groups (e.g. scanned litter sizes, ewe age groups) can be used to appropriately manage the flock at lambing to reduce their incidence.     

Bio-economic modelling of sheep meat production systems with varying flock litter size using field data

Sheep meat producers derive the majority of income from sales of weaned lambs, determined by flock conception rates, litter size, and lamb survival. Field data from commercial flocks can inform sensitivity analyses of the effect of litter size on flock productivity, feed demand, and gross margin. This study adapted an established bio-economic model of a flock of breeding ewes informed by statistical relationships (from linear models) between flock litter size (lambs born per ewe lambing) and production factors (such as flock barren rate, litter birth type and lamb birth weight) identified using 156 145 animal records from the Irish national sheep breeding database. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to investigate the effects of flock litter size on flock production, feed demand, and gross margin. Results showed that as flock litter size increased, the proportion of lambs born as multiples increased, with 14 % of lambs born as singles when flock litter size was 2.2 lambs born per ewe lambing. Flock gross margin increased from €2 205 to €7 730 as litter size increased from 1.0 to 2.0 lambs born per ewe lambing. As litter size increased from 1.0 to 2.2 lambs born per ewe lambing, flock gross margin increased linearly by, on average, €52 per 0.01 increase in litter size. At a litter size of > 2.2 lambs born per ewe lambing, flock gross margin increased on average €12 per 0.01 increase in litter size. At a litter size of 2.2 lambs born per ewe lambing, flock efficiency (at 65.0 kg of lamb weaned per ewe presented for breeding), weaning rate (at 1.5 lambs weaned per ewe presented for breeding; not including excess lambs from large litters sold within a week after birth and thus not weaned on-farm), and gross margin (at €8 500) began to plateau. The results indicate lower marginal returns in gross margin at very high flock litter size, due to the lower value of additional lambs born as triplets and quadruplets compared with single- and twin-born lambs. However, the diminishing economic returns occurred at higher flock litter size than are currently biologically achieved in most flocks. Quantification from this analysis demonstrates how the value of increasing the number of lambs born changes at very high flock litter size, which can inform the priorities and performance benchmarking for international sheep meat production industries.     

Selection for reproductive rate in Rambouillet sheep: Estimated genetic change in reproductive rate

Rambouillet sheep were selected for high or low reproductive rate based on an index of reproductive rate, reproductive INDEX = dam's total lifetime lambs born/(age in years-1). Selected ewes were first born in 1969. A random bred control line was established from the remaining foundation ewes with the first ewes born in 1973. Genetic variances were estimated with REML procedures for reproductive index and number of lambs born or weaned either per ewe exposed for breeding or per ewe lambing. Heritability of reproductive index was 0.26. Heritability for number of lambs born were 0.11 and 0.12 and for number of lambs weaned were 0.04 and 0.04 per ewe exposed for breeding and per ewe lambing, respectively. Breeding values for the reproductive index were estimated using the full animal model (BLUP) with the complete numerator relationship matrix on reproductive index, with fixed effect of year of birth of ewe and breeding values for number of lambs born or weaned either per ewe exposed for breeding or per ewe lambing, estimated with the fixed effects of year of birth of ewe and age of ewe and the random effect of permanent environmental effect among repeated lambing records. Genetic change was estimated as the regression of breeding value for reproductive index and number of lambs born or weaned either per ewe exposed for breeding or per ewe lambing on year of birth of the ewe. High and low lines both responded to selection for reproductive index as compared to the control line (P<0.01). The high line increased at a rate of b = 0.0134 ± 0.0006 reproductive index units and the low line decreased at a rate of b = − 0.0098 ± 0.0005 reproductive index units per year. Response to selection for reproductive index resulted in b = − 0.0074 ± 0.0007 and b = 0.0163 ± 0.0006 lambs per ewe exposed for breeding, and b = − 0.0041 ± 0.0002 and b = 0.0075 ± 0.0002 lambs weaned per ewe exposed for breeding in the low and high lines, respectively. There was a greater response to selection in the high line compared to the low line. These results indicated that the reproductive index did respond to selection.     

Spatially Dependent Polya Tree Modeling for Survival Data

Summary With the proliferation of spatially oriented time‐to‐event data, spatial modeling in the survival context has received increased recent attention. A traditional way to capture a spatial pattern is to introduce frailty terms in the linear predictor of a semiparametric model, such as proportional hazards or accelerated failure time. We propose a new methodology to capture the spatial pattern by assuming a prior based on a mixture of spatially dependent Polya trees for the baseline survival in the proportional hazards model. Thanks to modern Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, this approach remains computationally feasible in a fully hierarchical Bayesian framework. We compare the spatially dependent mixture of Polya trees (MPT) approach to the traditional spatial frailty approach, and illustrate the usefulness of this method with an analysis of Iowan breast cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute. Our method provides better goodness of fit over the traditional alternatives as measured by log pseudo marginal likelihood (LPML), the deviance information criterion (DIC), and full sample score (FSS) statistics.     

Increasing ovulation rate and lambing rate in sheep by treatment with a steroid enzyme inhibitor

Treatment of ewes with a 3 beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (3 beta-HSD) inhibitor (Epostane) resulted in a significant increase in both ovulation rate and in the mean number of lambs per ewe lambing. The progestagen sponge plus 3 beta-HSD inhibitor treatment also caused a significant increase in oestrous cycle duration of approximately 1.5 days. Treatment of ewes with the 3 beta-HSD inhibitor caused a significant decrease in peripheral progesterone concentrations, which were reduced even further when 3 beta-HSD inhibitor treatment was given to ewes after insertion of a progestagen sponge. However, mean oestradiol concentrations were significantly higher in the two treatment groups, both at the end of the luteal phase and during the follicular phase of the oestrous cycle. These results demonstrate that ovulation rate and the production of lambs per ewe lambing can be significantly increased by 3 beta-HSD inhibitor treatment.     

Comparison of two progestogens during out-of-season breeding in a commercial ewe flock

A comparison was made of the relative effectiveness of subcutaneous ear implants containing 2 mg Norgestomet or vagnial pessaries containing 60 mg medroxyprogesterone acetate (MAP) to induce estrus and conception in dry anestrous ewes. Groups of ewes were treated with one of the two progestogens for 14 d, and 500 IU pregnant mare serum gonadotropin (PMSG) was administered intramuscularly at the time of progestogen withdrawal. No significant differences in estrus induction, pregnancy rate or number of lambs born per ewe lambing were observed. Ewes treated with Norgestomet had 96% estrus, 60% pregnancy rate and 1.4 lambs per ewe lambing. Comparably, ewes treated with MAP had 94% estrus, 65% pregnancy rate and 1.7 lambs per ewe lambing. Norgestomet implants compared favorably with MAP pessaries for estrus induction and breeding of commercial, dry anestrous ewes.     

Control of oestrus in ewe lambs and yearling ewes with medroxyprogesterone acetate and fluorogestone acetate

Two experiments were conducted in a large flock of Berrichon purebred and Romanov × Berrichon F₁ crossbred ewes. In experiment 1, 157 ewe lambs were placed in six groups according to season of mating and maternal breed. Within each group equal numbers of females were treated with either medroxyprogesterone acetate (MAP) or fluorogestone acetate (FGA)-impregnated sponges for 14 days; dosage of PMSG at the time of sponge removal was 500 and 300 I.U. respectively for pure and crossbred. In experiment 2, 111 dry yearling ewes of the Berrichon breed were involved, of which 35, 51 and 25 had either a short lambing to treatment interval (approximately 3 months), a long lambing to treatment interval (approximately 6 months), or were primiparous or nulliparous. They were also treated either with MAP or FGA.The conception rates were extremely high (overall near 86%) in ewe lambs and not significantly affected by seasons or breeds or treatments. Prolificacy and number of lambs per ewe mated were higher in the F₁ crossbred group than in pure Berrichon females (respectively 1.91 vs. 1.34 lambs/mated ewe). No significant difference between the two progestagens could be observed for any of the productivity criteria. Fertility was equally satisfactory in yearlings (overall near 85%) irrespective of the interval between lambing and mating. However, the fertility of the nulliparous ewes (those that failed to conceive as ewe lambs) was significantly lower (72%). The number of lambs per ewe mated was 1.78 in yearlings with a 6-month interval from lambing to mating but was not significantly different from the numbers recorded in the other two groups (1.37 and 1.36). As in experiment 1, there was no difference in the results obtained after either of the two progestagen treatments.In conclusion, progestagen treatment has been shown in both ewe lambs and yearlings to be a very effective means of increasing lamb production in large flocks. This was achieved in ewe lambs regardless of the season and, in dry yearling ewes, regardless of the interval from lambing to mating in the anoestrous season.     

Artificial insemination of ewes with frozen-thawed semen at a synchronised oestrus. 2. Effect of dose of spermatozoa and site of intrauterine insemination on fertility

Three experiments were conducted to examine the effect of dose of inseminate, number of uterine horns inseminated and site of insemination on subsequent fertility of Merino ewes after synchronisation of oestrus, with progestagen-impregnated sponges (inserted for 12 days) and an injection of PMSG, and intrauterine insemination with frozen-thawed semen.The percentages of ewes lambing after insemination with 0.5, 5, 25 and 50 × 10⁶ spermatozoa were 29.3, 26.8, 56.3 and 62.1% respectively. A similar trend was observed in a second test resulting in 23.5, 38.8 and 53.1% ewes lambing after insemination with 5, 10 and 20 × 10⁶ spermatozoa respectively.The percentage of ewes lambing was higher for ewes inseminated in two uterine horns than one horn (76.8 vs. 44.9, P < 0.001). When semen was deposited in the tip, middle and bottom of the uterine horn, the percentages of ewes lambing and lambs born per ewe inseminated were 43.6 and 52.7, 52.8 and 84.9, and 41.2 and 64.7% respectively. Although site of insemination did not affect the percentage of ewes lambing, the percentage of lambs born per ewe inseminated was higher after insemination in the middle of the uterine horn than at the other sites (P < 0.001).     

城郊景观动态模型研究：以沈阳市东陵区为例

基于渗透理论、马尔柯夫过程理论,采用中性模型方法,建立了３个不同的城郊景观动态模型,模型中分别介入不同自然因子和决策因子．利用模型对研究区景观进行了动态变化模拟．对模拟结果进行了评价,评价方法与指标包括：１）多分辨率拟合分析;２）最近邻概率;３）斑块大小和数目．结果发现,综合介入决策因素和自然因子的模型具有最好的效果．     

Effectiveness of a short-term treatment with progesterone injections on synchrony of lambing and fertility in tropical hair sheep

The efficacy of using a low cost system for delivering progesterone as part of an estrous synchronization protocol in sheep was evaluated. In experiment 1, Barbados Black Belly ewes (n=34) and ewe lambs (n=35; 37.5±0.9 kg) were assigned to be untreated, control animals (C), or to receive PGF(2α) on d0 (PG), or receive two injections of progesterone (200mg, i.m. each) on D -5 and on D -2.5, prior to PGF(2α), on D 0 (2PPG). Treatment with 2PPG increased the proportion of animals lambing to the first service (P<0.05), an effect that was greater in ewe lambs than ewes (treatment × parity; P<0.05). The interval from ram introduction to lambing and the mean lambing day was less (P=0.04) in the 2PPG-treated animals compared to control animals. In Experiment 2, lactating ewes from experiment 1 (n=61) 60-85 days postpartum were assigned within parity and number of lambs reared to remain nursing (S; n=29) or weaned (W; n=32) 3 weeks prior to treatment with the 2PPG protocol. There was no effect of treatment on the proportion of animals lambing to the first service or overall, interval from ram introduction to lambing and lambing interval. An 8-month lambing interval was observed in ewes in which estrus was synchronized regardless of physiological state. In conclusion, the two-progesterone injection synchronization protocol may be used as a practical low cost and efficient method of synchronizing estrus to reduce the lambing interval and maximize productivity in tropical breeds of sheep.     

The effect of scrotal circumference, sperm motility and morphology in the ram on conception rates and lambing percentage in the ewe

Ten Suffolk and ten Lincoln yearling rams were examined for breeding soundness. Semen was evaluated, and the scrotal circumference measured. They were single-sire mated to ten to twelve, whiteface ewe lambs during a 45-day breeding season (October 15 - December 1). First-service conception rates, total conception rate, lambing percentage and lambing percentage per ewe exposed were calculated for each ram and breed. The mean scrotal circumference was 36.5 cm (range 31 - 41.5 cm). The breeding data was then compared for eleven rams with a scrotal circumference of less than 36.5 cm and nine rams greater than 36.5 cm. No direct relationship was demonstrated between scrotal circumference, sperm motility or morphology with fertility in the rams used in this experiment. However, there was a tendency for rams with a high first-service conception rate to have sired more lambs per ewe exposed. The mean first-service conception rate was 63.2% (range 44.4 - 80.0%). When rams with greater than 63.2% first-service conception rate were compared to those with less than 63.2%. the lambs born per ewe exposed were 1.04 and .89, respectively, a significant difference (P<.05). There were no significant differences (P<.05) in performance between the two groups when rams with a scrotal circumference less than 36.5 cm and greater than 36.5 cm were compared, nor were there any differences between scrotal circumference, sperm motility, and morphology when rams with total conception rates greater than 80% were compared to those with conception rates less than 80%.