基于MODIS序列的北京市土地利用变化对净初级生产力的影响

了解土地利用变化对区域净初级生产力(NPP)的影响,对于综合理解区域植被的固碳能力及其与土地利用变化的关系,以及维持区域生态安全均具有重要意义。以北京市为例,基于2000—2012年MODIS NPP遥感影像和土地利用类型数据,利用同期Landsat TM影像(分辨率30 m)对MODIS NPP数据进行降尺度计算的基础上,分析北京市区域NPP的时空分布特征,探讨土地利用变化对植被固碳能力的影响。结果表明:研究期内Landsat NDVI与NPP数据的线性关系显著(R~2为0.22—0.68,P0.01),基于该线性关系可实现对MODIS NPP的降尺度重计算。土地利用面积分配和景观格局的变化均显著影响NPP。13年间,北京市林地和草地面积增加而耕地面积迅速减少,NPP总量由123万t C增长至190万t C,其中66%的NPP由林地贡献,其次为耕地(26%),草地最低(8%)。2000—2006年,面积变化促进了NPP的增加,贡献率为34%;而2006—2012年,面积变化则抑制区域NPP的增加,贡献率降低至27%。同时,研究区域内斑块聚集度的降低,斑块密度及丰富度的增加均有利于其NPP的增加。提高研究区植被固碳能力,需要在维持区域当前植被数量和质量的基础上,增加区域景观的异质性和多样性。     

Land cover dynamics of different topographic conditions in Beijing,China

Topographic conditions play an important role in controlling land cover dynamic processes.In this study,remotely sensed data and the geographic information system were applied to analyze the changes in land cover along topographic gradients from 1978 to 2001 in Beijing,a rapidly urbanized mega city in China.The study was based on five periods of land cover maps derived from remotely sensed data:Landsat MSS for 1978,Landsat TM for 1984,"1992,1996 and 2001,and the digital elevation model (DEM) derived from 1:250,000 topographic map.The whole area was divided into ten land cover types:conifer forest,broadleaf forest,mixed forest,shrub,brushwood,meadow,farmland,built-up,water body and bare land.The results are summarized as follows.(1) Shrub,forest,farmland and builtup consist of the main land cover types of the Beijing area.The most significant land cover change from 1978 to 2001 was the decrease of the farmland and expansion of the builtup area.Farmland decreased from 6354 to 3813 km2 in the 23 years,while the built-up area increased from 421 to 2642 km2.Meanwhile,the coverage of forest increased from 17.2% to 24.7% of the total area.The conversion matrix analysis indicated that the transformation of farmland to the built-up area was the most significant process and afforestation was the primary cause of the replacement of shrub to forest.(2) Topographic conditions are of great importance to the distribution of land cover types and the process of land cover changes.Elevation has an intensive impact on the distribution of land cover types.The area below 100 m mostly consists of farmland and built-up areas,while the area above 100 m is mainly covered by shrub and forest.Shrub has the maximum frequency in areas between 100 and 1000 m,while forest has dominance in areas above 800 m.According to the analysis of land cover changes in different ranges of elevation,the greatest change below 100 m was the process of urbanization.The process of the main land cover change occurred above 100 m was the transformation from shrub to forest.This result was consistent with the vertical change of natural vegetation distribution in Beijing.(3) Slope has a great influence on the distribution of land cover.Farmland and built-up areas are mostly distributed in fiat areas,while shrub and forest occupy steeper areas compared with other land cover types.Forest frequency increased with the increasing slope.Land cover changes differed from the slope gradients.In the plain area,the land cover change occurred as the result of urbanization.With the increasing of the slope gradient,afforestation,which converts shrub to forest,was the process of the primary land cover change.     

Land cover dynamics of different topographic conditions in Beijing, China

Topographic conditions play an important role in controlling land cover dynamic processes. In this study, remotely sensed data and the geographic information system were applied to analyze the changes in land cover along topographic gradients from 1978 to 2001 in Beijing, a rapidly urbanized mega city in China. The study was based on five periods of land cover maps derived from remotely sensed data: Landsat MSS for 1978, Landsat TM for 1984, 1992, 1996 and 2001, and the digital elevation model (DEM) derived from 1:250,000 topographic map. The whole area was divided into ten land cover types: conifer forest, broadleaf forest, mixed forest, shrub, brushwood, meadow, farmland, built-up, water body and bare land. The results are summarized as follows. (1) Shrub, forest, farmland and builtup consist of the main land cover types of the Beijing area. The most significant land cover change from 1978 to 2001 was the decrease of the farmland and expansion of the builtup area. Farmland decreased from 6354 to 3813 km2 in the 23 years, while the built-up area increased from 421 to 2642 km2. Meanwhile, the coverage of forest increased from 17.2% to 24.7% of the total area. The conversion matrix analysis indicated that the transformation of farmland to the built-up area was the most significant process and afforestation was the primary cause of the replacement of shrub to forest. (2) Topographic conditions are of great importance to the distribution of land cover types and the process of land cover changes. Elevation has an intensive impact on the distribution of land cover types. The area below 100 m mostly consists of farmland and built-up areas, while the area above 100 m is mainly covered by shrub and forest. Shrub has the maximum frequency in areas between 100 and 1000 m, while forest has dominance in areas above 800 m. According to the analysis of land cover changes in different ranges of elevation, the greatest change below 100 m was the process of urbanization. The process of the main land cover change occurred above 100 m was the transformation from shrub to forest. This result was consistent with the vertical change of natural vegetation distribution in Beijing. (3) Slope has a great influence on the distribution of land cover. Farmland and built-up areas are mostly distributed in flat areas, while shrub and forest occupy steeper areas compared with other land cover types. Forest frequency increased with the increasing slope. Land cover changes differed from the slope gradients. In the plain area, the land cover change occurred as the result of urbanization. With the increasing of the slope gradient, afforestation, which converts shrub to forest, was the process of the primary land cover change. __________ Translated from Journal of Plant Ecology, 2006, 30(2): 239–251 [译自: 植物生态学报]     

土地利用变化对三峡库区重庆段植被净初级生产力的影响

研究土地利用变化对区域植被净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity,NPP)的影响对于明确区域植被固碳能力与土地利用变化的关系,以及维持生态系统结构稳定具有重要意义。以三峡库区重庆段为例,基于2000—2015年MOD17A3数据和土地利用数据,分析研究区NPP时空分布特征并从景观生态学的角度探讨土地利用变化对区域植被NPP的影响。研究表明:(1)NPP年均值16年间波动不大,空间分布上从东到西逐渐减少;(2)研究期内林地面积增加,耕地和草地面积减小,而NPP总量从25.6 TgC增加到了28.5 TgC,其中耕地NPP约占总量的44%,林地次之(40%),草地最少(14%),2000—2005年、2005—2010年、2010—2015年土地利用变化对NPP变化的贡献率分别为26.49%、59.76%、17.27%;(3)区域生态景观指数中的香农多样性指数SHDI、斑块密度PD与NPP呈正相关,而聚合度AI与NPP呈负相关,景观格局类型和景观格局变化均影响区域植被NPP的增长。要提高区域植被NPP,需优化土地利用格局,增加景观异质性和斑块密度,重视培育幼龄林,并控制成熟林的数量。     

南昌地区城市建成区景观结构特征对建设用地扩张的影响

利用南昌地区 1988～ 2 0 0 0年期间的 4景城市建设用地分布图和叠图代数计算方法 ,分两个比较时段 (1988～ 1991年及1998～ 2 0 0 0年 )研究了快速城市化地区建成区景观格局特征对建设用地扩张的影响 ;重点分析了边缘非城镇像元的邻域特征、非城镇像元与最近建成区像元的距离以及建成区斑块的规模对边缘及全区非城镇像元向建设用地转化比率的影响。结果表明 ,非城镇边缘像元的邻域水平与其向建设用地转化比率之间的相互关系可以用一阶直线方程加以表述 ;非城镇像元与最近建成区像元之间的距离对转化率的影响呈幂函数关系 ,建成区斑块规模的对数与周围非城镇像元向建设用地转化比率之间的关系可以用二项式方程进行拟合。尽管两个比较时段之间的城市化程度差异明显 ,但拟合方程的类型保持一致 ,表明建成区格局特征对新增建设用地的影响是一种机制性的联系。最后探讨了将上述相关关系引入城市化景观动态模拟研究中的可能性以及在具体变量赋值过程中应当注意的有关问题。     

Impact of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities on ecosystem net primary productivity in India during 2001–2019

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have altered the terrestrial ecosystem dynamics around the globe. Due to the complex ecosystem-atmosphere interactions at different scales, these impacts are difficult to quantify and are poorly understood, especially in developing countries with limited ground-based observations. This study analyzed the impact of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) in India using remote sensing-based observations, correlation analysis, and Residual Trend analysis (RESTREND). Using different climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, along with Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and NPP maps, we first classified the ecosystems (ES) into two categories: natural ecosystems – influenced only by climate change (ES_c), covering about 19.7% of the area, and human-influenced ecosystems – influenced by both climate change and anthropogenic activities (ES_c+a), covering about 80.3% of the area. RESTREND analysis was performed on both ES_c and ES_c+a to analyze the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in NPP. The correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables suggested that precipitation was the dominant control of NPP in about 72% area, whereas temperature and solar radiation controlled NPP in Himalayan and forest-dominated regions, respectively. The human-influenced ecosystems (ES_c+a) experienced an increasing trend in NPP, whereas natural ecosystems (ES_c) experienced a decreasing trend, particularly in forest-dominated regions. Overall, NPP increased in the country during the study duration. The contributions of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities varied spatially and temporally. In general, climatic factors enhanced the NPP, whereas human activities contributed to a slight decline in NPP. These findings improve our understanding of how ecosystems in India are influenced by climate change and anthropogenic activities in recent decades. The results from this study will aid in identifying ecological hotspots and key drivers for better ecosystem management strategies.     

不同规模城镇的扩展过程分析——以北京为例

基于遥感和地理信息系统技术,利用Landsat系列遥感图像的解译成果,分析了北京地区1984～2002年不同规模城镇的扩展过程。研究表明,（1）北京近18a来,各区县城镇规模对其扩展度具有较大的正面影响,且随着城市化的进程其影响程度日益增长。（2）北京近18a来,各区县的城镇用地的扩展强度是以城区为中心,四周辐射逐渐变慢,且对扩展度起到重要作用的是空间位置和地形条件,也就是说地形条件越趋向于平原,空间位置越接近于市中心,城镇用地扩展机会将越大。（3）北京近18a来,大部分区（县）城镇用地不断向外扩张,迅速侵占、同化周边其他土地利用类型（以农业用地、草地、其他用地为主）,原有城镇扩展迅速,城镇分布局部集中,范围也不断扩大。     

城市化区域生态风险驱动力及管控策略——以北京市为例

快速城市化导致城市及周边区域生态风险不断增加,认知城市化区域生态风险,探究其变化的驱动因素,提出行之有效的风险管控策略,对城市化区域生态环境与社会经济协调发展具有重要意义。以北京市为例,基于生态系统服务对生态风险进行了定量表征,分析了城市化因素对生态风险的驱动作用,探究了生态风险管控策略。研究结果表明：不透水地表扩张、经济增长、人口增长均对生态风险有显著的驱动作用,其中不透水地表扩张的驱动作用占主导地位。经济增长和人口增长通过影响不透水地表率间接作用于生态风险,在2005年时,人口密度对生态风险的驱动作用大于GDP强度,在2010年及之后,GDP强度对生态风险的驱动作用则变得比人口密度的驱动作用更大。北京市的生态风险管控策略为：在不透水地表率介于40%—70%的区域降低不透水地表率和实施土地利用及景观格局优化;不透水地表率大于70%的区域应防止不透水地表进一步扩张;不透水地表率低于40%的区域需通过提升生态系统质量、强化风险防范、降低风险暴露等途径来管控风险。此外,应通过提高海淀、昌平、通州、顺义等辖区的人口和经济城市化集约水平来降低生态风险。本研究阐明了城市化对区域生态风险的驱动作用...     

黄河流域草地净初级生产力时空动态及其驱动机制

黄河流域是生态系统的敏感区,流域草地生态系统在气候变化和人类活动驱动下发生了显著变化。基于多源遥感影像和气象站点资料等,采用改进后的CASA模型估算2001—2018年黄河流域草地净初级生产力(NPP),评估定量反演结果精度,分析研究时段内流域草地净初级生产力时空动态,探讨气候要素和人类活动对流域草地净初级生产力的影响。结果表明：1)基于改进的CASA模型能够高精度模拟黄河流域草地NPP。2)2001—2018年黄河流域草地NPP呈增加趋势,且在2013年发生突变。2001—2013年气候和人类活动均促进流域草地NPP增加,而2013年后人类活动抑制流域草地NPP增加的作用明显增强,抑制区域面积较前一阶段增加34.89%。整体上,人类活动对草地NPP的影响强度低于气候要素影响强度。3)耕地和建设用地面积的变化,是驱动实际净初级生产力动态的重要人类活动要素。耕地和建设用地面积的增加与草地面积减少、实际净初级生产力增加速率的降低紧密相关。伴随经济发展,应坚持实施退耕还林还草政策,并加强对草地生态保护的监督。     

Contrasting responses of net primary productivity to inter-annual variability and changes of climate among three forest types in northern China

Aims A lack of explicit information on differential controls on net primary productivity (NPP) across regions and ecosystem types is largely responsible for uncertainties in global trajectories of terrestrial carbon balance with changing environment. The objectives of this study were to determine how NPP of different forest types would respond to inter-annual variability of climate and to examine the responses of NPP to future climate change scenarios across contrasting forest types in northern China.Methods We investigated inter-annual variations of NPP in relation to climate variability across three forest types in northern China, including a boreal forest dominated by Larix gmelinii Rupr., and two temperate forests dominated by Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. and Quercus wutaishanica Mayr., respectively, and studied the responses of NPP in these forests to predicted changes in climate for the periods 2011–40, 2041–70 and 2070–100 under carbon emission scenarios A2 and B2 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We simulated the responses of NPP to predicted changes in future climate as well as inter-annual variability of the present climate with the Biome-BGC version 4.2 based on site- and species-specific parameters. The modeled forest NPP data were validated against values in literature for similar types of forests and compared with inter-annual growth variations reflected by tree-ring width index (RWI) at the study sites.Important findings Inter-annual variations in modeled NPP during the period 1960–06 were mostly consistent with the temporal patterns in RWI. There were contrasting responses of modeled NPP among the three forest types to inter-annual variability of the present climate as well as to predicted changes in future climate. The modeled NPP was positively related to annual mean air temperature in the L. gmelinii forest (P < 0.001), but negatively in the P. tabulaeformis forest (P = 0.05) and the Q. wutaishanica forest (P = 0.03), while the relationships of modeled NPP with annual precipitation for the three forest types were all positive. Multiple stepwise regression analyses showed that temperature was a more important constraint of NPP than precipitation in the L. gmelinii forest, whereas precipitation appeared to be a prominent factor limiting the growth in P. tabulaeformis and Q. wutaishanica. Model simulations suggest marked, but differential increases in NPP across the three forest types with predicted changes in future climate.     

北京地区不同地形条件下的土地覆盖动态

利用MSS/TM影像和1∶250 000 高程数据分析了1978~2001年北京地区土地覆盖的变化。为研究人类活动对土地覆盖类型及植被变化的影响,根据植被的分布规律和人类活动影响,利用数字高程模型(DEM)将研究区遥感影像分为不同海拔段,分别建立标志进行解译。通过转移概率矩阵计算、不同地形因子影响下的土地覆盖类型分布的GIS分析,得到如下结果:1) 1978~2001年间北京市土地覆盖变化主要发生在平原和低海拔、小坡度的平缓地区,表现为农业用地向城镇用地的转变;高海拔地区主要为天然植被所覆盖,土地覆盖变化相对较小,主要是灌丛向林地的转变。2) 地形因子显著影响土地覆盖类型的分布及变化。随着海拔的升高和坡度的增大,农业用地和城镇用地减少,林地和灌丛逐渐增加。坡向对植被的分布也有较大影响。     

1982-2010年中国草地净初级生产力时空动态及其与气候因子的关系

植被净初级生产力（NPP）及其与气候变化的响应研究是全球变化的核心内容之一。论文基于长时间序列遥感数据和气象数据,通过光能利用率模型（Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach, CASA模型）模拟了1982-2010 年中国草地NPP,进而分析其时空变化特征及其与气候水热因子的相关性。结果表明：（1）1982-2010年中国草地年平均NPP为282.0 gC m^-2a^-1,年总NPP的多年平均值为988.3 TgC;空间分布上呈现东南部高西北部低的特征。（2）近30年中国草地NPP增加速率为0.6 gC m^-2a^-1,呈增加趋势的面积占中国草地总面积的67.2%;总体上,中国草地NPP呈极显著和显著增加的比例（35.8%、8.0%）大于呈极显著和显著减少的比例（5.8%、4.8%）;NPP明显增加的区域主要包括青藏高原西部、阿拉善高原、新疆西部;明显降低的区域主要分布在内蒙古地区;不同年代际和不同草地类型的NPP变化趋势差异明显。（3）草地NPP与降水量的相关性高于与温度的相关性。不同草地类型NPP对气温、降水量的响应程度不同,其中温性荒漠草原 、温性草原、温性草甸草原的NPP与降水量均达到显著正相关（P<0.05）。     

深圳市1988—2007年间湿地景观动态变化及成因分析

城市湿地是城市生态安全体系构成的重要组成部分。以深圳地区为工作区,利用多时段遥感资料和土地利用变更调查数据,进行1988—2007年期间工作区内湿地景观动态变化特征分析,探讨快速城市化背景下湿地景观动态变化的成因。结果表明,研究时段内深圳市湿地总面积损失了35.7%,不同湿地类型及不同行政单元内湿地的动态变化表现出明显差异。建设用地扩张是工作区内湿地损失的主要原因并且其影响表现为一种非均匀过程;功能差异是导致不同湿地类型之间动态变化差异的主要成因;区域社会经济和自然环境条件差异是导致不同行政单元之间湿地动态变化差异的主要影响因素。     

Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 × 8 km² areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns.     

北京边缘地区景观格局变化及对生态系统服务的影响评价——以牛栏山-马坡镇为例

北京边缘区正处于经济快速发展阶段,人类活动对景观格局产生了显著影响,造成生态服务功能发生巨大变化,因此,研究北京城市边缘区景观格局变化及其生态系统服务价值影响对未来城市边缘区的发展具有重要意义。基于Fragstats 4.2软件,以生态系统服务当量因子表为基础,探讨北京边缘地区牛栏山-马坡镇在1992—2015年间景观格局和生态系统服务价值变化;并进行景观指数与生态系统服务价值的相关性分析。结果表明:1992—2015年间,牛栏山-马坡镇景观格局发生了显著变化,破碎度增加,异质性增高,优势景观类型由农田变为建设用地;生态系统服务价值由11609.34万元增长到14992.07万元,其中,林地对生态系统服务价值增加的贡献率最大;提高最大斑块指数、斑块密度和多样性指数有利于生态系统服务价值的增加。综上所述,快速城镇化背景下人为干扰造成的景观格局变化不一定会使城市边缘地区生态系统服务价值降低,科学的生态环境规划和保护政策是牛栏山-马坡镇生态系统服务价值增加的主要原因。     

中国西北地区植被NPP多时间尺度变化及其对气候变化的响应

净初级生产力(NPP)是评估植被生长的重要参数,也是评价区域生态环境质量的重要指标。以"一带一路"枢纽地区西北六省为研究区,基于多年连续的GIMMS NDVI资料和气象数据,利用CASA模型,估算了西北六省34年NPP值,利用MK和EEMD方法,揭示了NPP变化的非线性特征,并探究不同时间尺度植被NPP变化对气候变化的响应。研究结果发现:(1)1982—2015年生长季植被NPP总体呈增加趋势,线性增长率为0.718 gCm~(-2) a~(-1);大多数研究区植被NPP短时间内将保持现有变化趋势,尤其是青藏高原、塔里木盆地边缘和内蒙古南部一带。(2)1982—2015年植被NPP以3年周期变化和长期增加趋势为主。其中陕西的南部,甘肃、新疆、宁夏和青海的北部以及内蒙古中部和北部以3年周期变化为主导,而陕西的北部,甘肃、新疆、宁夏的南部以及内蒙古东部以长期变化为主。不同植被类型NPP变化差异明显:针叶林、阔叶林以及混交林以3年周期波动为主,而灌木、草地和农田以3年周期波动和长期增长趋势为主。(3)NPP与气温和降水之间的相关性随着时间尺度的增大逐渐显著。在3年时间尺度上,大多数研究区NPP与气温和降水的相关性很小(P0.05)。6年时间尺度上,NPP与降水量呈正相关的区域向南略有扩散,其中青海南部高寒草甸NPP与降水的相关性由负相关转为正相关。在长期趋势上,NPP与气温和降水量具有非常显著的相关关系,且呈正相关的区域大于负相关的区域。本研究发现多时间尺度能够更好的分析NPP时空特征以及不同时间尺度NPP对气候变化的响应,有助于揭示全球气候变化背景下植被NPP对气候变化的非线性响应机制,评价气候变化的生态坏境风险,为西北六省区域可持续发展和生态环境保护提供理论依据。     

基于MODIS数据的中国三种主要土地类型变化的空间特征分析

人类活动使得土地利用和植被覆盖发生了巨大变化,直接影响着全球气候。本研究通过从2000—2013年对中国三种主要土地利用类型的NDVI变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:(1)14年来,中国三种主要土地利用类型NDVI平均值均有增强的趋势。(2)三种主要土地利用类型中除耕地中的水田,林地中的有林地和草地中的高覆盖草地增长速率不显著外,其他土地类型增长速率均显著。(3)三种土地利用类型均以改善面积大于退化面积,耕地中改善面积占总耕地的64.21%,退化的区域占18.50%;林地改善的区域占总林地的54.21%,退化的区域占20.13%;草地改善的区域占55.53%,退化的区域占18.23%。三种土地类型均有所改善且改善明显的区域主要集中在甘肃以南,陕西以北和东北部分地区。     

黑龙江省黑河地区森林地上生物量和NPP估测及时空格局

根据黑龙江省黑河地区2005和2010年1390块固定样地数据和东北地区树种生物量异速模型,估算各样地单位面积森林地上生物量(AGB)和净初级生产力(NPP).结合该地区2005和2010年两期ETM⁺遥感图像,运用地统计克里格与协同克里格法对AGB和NPP进行插值,比较多种方差函数的拟合效果,并用最佳插值方法得出该地区AGB和NPP的分布图;通过两期分布图的对比,分析该区域AGB和NPP随时间和空间的动态变化趋势,及其与地形因子(坡向、坡度、海拔)和不同林分类型的时空变化规律.结果表明: 2005—2010年,黑河地区AGB呈现增加趋势,高于40 t·hm^-2的生物量面积明显增加;NPP有所下降,出现高NPP地区向低NPP地区转变的现象.AGB和NPP与各地形因子均有一定的相关性,其中,与海拔的相关性明显,说明AGB和NPP的分布受海拔影响显著.研究期间,AGB在各个坡向均有所提高,NPP则降低;AGB和NPP随着坡度增大、海拔增高有增加趋势;常绿针叶林AGB和NPP增长最多,针阔混交林AGB增长最少,落叶阔叶林NPP增长最少.     

The future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels under different scenarios

Climate and land-use changes are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss and, moreover, their impacts on biodiversity are expected to increase further in the 21st century. In this study, the future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels (Spermophilus xanthoprymnus) was assessed. Accordingly, a hierarchical approach with two steps was used. First, ecological niche modelling was used to assess the impact of climate change in areas accessible to Anatolian ground squirrels through dispersal (i.e. the impact of climate change). Second, based on the habitat preferences of ground squirrels, land-use data were used to assess the impact of land-use change in suitable bioclimatic areas for Anatolian ground squirrels under present and future conditions (i.e. the combined impact of both changes). Also, priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels were identified based on in-situ climate change refugia. This study represents a first attempt to combine niche modelling and land-use data for a species in Anatolia, one of the most vulnerable regions to the drivers of biodiversity loss, because it is the region where three of biodiversity hotspots meet, and interact. Habitat suitability (i.e. suitable habitats across suitable bioclimatic areas) was projected to decline by 19–69% in the future (depending on the scenario), mainly due to the loss of suitable bioclimatic areas (47–77%, depending on the scenario) at lower elevations and in the western part of the central Anatolia and in the eastern Anatolia, suggesting that Anatolian ground squirrels will contract their range in the future, mainly due to climate change. Thus, in-situ climate change refugia were projected mainly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the central Anatolia, suggesting these regions as priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels.     

南方丘陵山地带植被净第一性生产力时空动态特征

基于MODIS数据并结合气象资料和植被参数,利用修正过最大光能利用率的CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach)模型,对国家生态安全屏障区的"两屏三带"之一南方丘陵山地带2000—2010年的植被净第一性生产力(NPP)进行模拟,并对其时空分布格局进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)研究区2000—2010年期间年NPP的变化范围为406.0—485.6 g C m-2a-1,年平均NPP为445.7 g C m-2a-1,高于全国平均水平;NPP年际上升趋势不显著(P=0.39),平均增加值为2.28 g C m-2a-1;(2)NPP空间分布特征与植被类型具有较好的一致性,单位面积NPP以混交林覆盖区最高(501.0 g C m-2a-1),草地覆盖区NPP最低(390.7 g C m-2a-1);(3)植被NPP的时空变化与气温、降雨和太阳辐射等自然因素的变化有直接关系,而社会、经济、政策等人为因素通过改变土地利用方式来间接影响。