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1.
The prediction of the control of nutrient partitioning, particularly energy, is a major issue in modelling dairy cattle performance. The proportions of energy channelled to physiological functions (growth, maintenance, gestation and lactation) change as the animal ages and reproduces, and according to its genotype and nutritional environment. This is the first of two papers describing a teleonomic model of individual performance during growth and over repeated reproductive cycles throughout the lifespan of dairy cattle. The conceptual framework is based on the coupling of a regulating sub-model providing teleonomic drives to govern the work of an operating sub-model scaled with genetic parameters. The regulating sub-model describes the dynamic partitioning of a mammal female's priority between life functions targeted to growth (G), ageing (A), balance of body reserves (R) and nutrient supply of the unborn (U), newborn (N) and suckling (S) calf. The so-called GARUNS dynamic pattern defines a trajectory of relative priorities, goal directed towards the survival of the individual for the continuation of the specie. The operating sub-model describes changes in body weight (BW) and composition, foetal growth, milk yield and composition and food intake in dairy cows throughout their lifespan, that is, during growth, over successive reproductive cycles and through ageing. This dynamic pattern of performance defines a reference trajectory of a cow under normal husbandry conditions and feed regimen. Genetic parameters are incorporated in the model to scale individual performance and simulate differences within and between breeds. The model was calibrated for dairy cows with literature data. The model was evaluated by comparison with simulations of previously published empirical equations of BW, body condition score, milk yield and composition and feed intake. This evaluation showed that the model adequately simulates these production variables throughout the lifespan, and across a range of dairy cattle genotypes.  相似文献   

2.
Reproductive success is a key component of lifetime efficiency – which is the ratio of energy in milk (MJ) to energy intake (MJ) over the lifespan, of cows. At the animal level, breeding and feeding management can substantially impact milk yield, body condition and energy balance of cows, which are known as major contributors to reproductive failure in dairy cattle. This study extended an existing lifetime performance model to incorporate the impacts that performance changes due to changing breeding and feeding strategies have on the probability of reproducing and thereby on the productive lifespan, and thus allow the prediction of a cow’s lifetime efficiency. The model is dynamic and stochastic, with an individual cow being the unit modelled and one day being the unit of time. To evaluate the model, data from a French study including Holstein and Normande cows fed high-concentrate diets and data from a Scottish study including Holstein cows selected for high and average genetic merit for fat plus protein that were fed high- v. low-concentrate diets were used. Generally, the model consistently simulated productive and reproductive performance of various genotypes of cows across feeding systems. In the French data, the model adequately simulated the reproductive performance of Holsteins but significantly under-predicted that of Normande cows. In the Scottish data, conception to first service was comparably simulated, whereas interval traits were slightly under-predicted. Selection for greater milk production impaired the reproductive performance and lifespan but not lifetime efficiency. The definition of lifetime efficiency used in this model did not include associated costs or herd-level effects. Further works should include such economic indicators to allow more accurate simulation of lifetime profitability in different production scenarios.  相似文献   

3.
1. Senescence reflects age-dependent changes in residual reproductive value. Annual survival rates of the barn swallow Hirundo rustica L. increased from 1- to 2-year-old individuals, but decreased among 5 years old or older individuals. Estimates of age-dependent reproductive value showed a similar pattern.
2. Longitudinal data from two long-term population studies were used to test whether a number of different measures of performance (condition-dependent morphological traits, migratory performance, reproductive success, intensity of parasitism) changed among individuals when reaching old age.
3. The length of the outermost tail feathers (a secondary sexual character) decreased among old individuals, while two measures of individual developmental instability increased with age. Migratory performance decreased in old barn swallows as reflected by a delay in spring arrival at the breeding grounds. Reproductive performance measured as seasonal reproductive success decreased with age. The intensity of infestations with an haematophagous mite and a mallophagous ectoparasite increased among old barn swallows.
4. These results suggest that the condition-dependent secondary sexual character, developmental stability, and measures of migratory and reproductive performance deteriorated, and the frequency of parasitism increased among old individuals. Ageing was thus associated with a general deterioration of performance.  相似文献   

4.
Heat stress is one of the most critical issues jeopardising animal welfare and productivity during the warm season in dairy cattle farms. The global trend of increase in average and peak temperatures is making the problem more and more serious. Many devices have been introduced in livestock farms to monitor and control temperature-humidity index, as well as animal behaviour and production parameters. The consequent availability of collected databases has increasingly enhanced the research aimed to understand the consequences of heat stress in cattle, in relation to genetic, reproductive, productive and behavioural features. Moreover, these investigations laid the foundations for the development, calibration, validation and test of numerical models quantifying the individual responses to heat stress conditions. In this work, a generalised additive model with mixed effects has been developed to analyse the relationship between milk production, animal behaviour and environmental parameters based on data surveyed in 2016 in an Italian dairy farm. Each cow has been characterised in terms of her response to heat conditions, and the results led to define three classes of susceptibility to heat stress within the herd. These attributes have then been related to the various phenotypic parameters collected by the precision livestock farming devices used in the farm. The study provides a model to understand the effects of heat stress conditions on individual animals in relation to the main parameters describing their rearing conditions; moreover, the results contribute to improve the herd management by lending indications to define targeted treatments according to the cow’s characteristics.  相似文献   

5.
The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of reproductive performance on profitability and optimal breeding decisions for Finnish dairy herds. We used a dynamic programming model to optimize dairy cow insemination and replacement decisions. This optimization model maximizes the expected net revenues from a given cow and her replacements over a decision horizon. Input values and prices reflecting the situation in 1998 in Finland were used in the study. Reproductive performance was reflected in the model by overall pregnancy rate, which was a function of heat detection and conception rate. Seasonality was included in conception rate. The base run had a pregnancy rate of 0.49 (both heat detection and conception rate of 0.7). Different scenarios were modeled by changing levels of conception rate, heat detection, and seasonality in fertility. Reproductive performance had a considerable impact on profitability of a herd; good heat detection and conception rates provided an opportunity for management control. When heat detection rate decreased from 0.7 to 0.5, and everything else was held constant, net revenues decreased approximately 2.6%. If the conception rate also decreased to 0.5 (resulting in a pregnancy rate of 0.25), net revenues were approximately 5% lower than with a pregnancy rate of 0.49. With lower fertility, replacement percentage was higher and the financial losses were mainly from higher replacement costs. Under Finnish conditions, it is not optimal to start breeding cows calving in spring and early summer immediately after the voluntary waiting period. Instead, it is preferable to allow the calving interval to lengthen for these cows so that their next calving is in the fall. However, cows calving in the fall should be bred immediately after the voluntary waiting period. Across all scenarios, optimal solutions predicted most calvings should occur in fall and the most profitable time to bring a replacement heifer into a herd was in the fall. It was economically justifiable to keep breeding high producing cows longer than low producing cows.  相似文献   

6.
Reproductive management, in particular timely oestrus detection, is important for profitable dairy production. The aim of this study was to develop a biological model to predict reproductive state on the basis of milk progesterone measures. A number of additional inputs were incorporated to make use of other known effectors of reproductive performance that are not reflected in progesterone levels. These are: days from calving, breed, parity, signs of behavioural oestrus, insemination dates, pregnancy determinations, energy status, body fat status, milk urea content and reproductive disorders associated with calving. A dynamic, deterministic model was developed. It is designed to run each time a new trigger input (progesterone, behavioural oestrus, inseminations, pregnancy determinations) occurs using the current and previous values and can run in the absence of the additional inputs. The milk progesterone values are smoothed using an extended Kalman filter before being processed in the biological component of the model. The model predicts the reproductive status of the cow, which can be one of three mutually exclusive states: postpartum anoestrus, oestrus cycling, and potentially pregnant. The other model outputs are all reproductive status specific with the exception of days to next sample (DNS), which is calculated in each model run regardless of reproductive status. DNS is designed to feedback to the sampling system so that the frequency of milk sampling (i.e. progesterone measurement) can be varied according to the predicted likelihood of a future reproductive event, such as onset of oestrus cycling. The other model outputs are: risk of prolonged postpartum anoestrus, risk and type of ovarian cyst, onset of oestrus, likelihood of a potential insemination succeeding, and likelihood of being pregnant (following oestrus). The model was evaluated using three simulated datasets consisting of a timeseries of progesterone values centred on each of the three reproductive statuses and including relevant additional information. Test runs were carried out on the full datasets and then on reduced data. The data reductions were made by using only those values that would have been available if the model days to next sample function was used to control sampling frequency. The sensitivity of the model to noise in the raw progesterone data was examined by adding 1, 2, or 3 residual standard deviations (1.85 ng/ml) random variation to the original data and evaluating model performance. The model was found to be able to readily identify and distinguish reproductive states. A reduction in sampling frequency to 36% of original sample resulted in an average increase in days to detection of oestrus of 0.36. The addition of 1 S.D. noise did not cause additional oestruses to be detected and all oestruses were correctly identified. However, when 2 or 3 S.D. noise were added, the model found on average 1.4 and 3 extra oestruses. It was concluded that reproductive status can be predicted from milk progesterone values using a biological model and that such a model is robust to reductions in sampling frequency number and to a doubling in the random variation in the raw progesterone values. It therefore has the potential to provide the basis for a useful reproductive management tool.  相似文献   

7.
Incidence of assisted births, retained fetal membranes (RFM), and metritis were recorded in one hundred dairy cows from parturition through 14 days post-calving. Manual removal of RFM was not attempted. All RFM were excised inside the vulva and observations of natural RFM expulsion were recorded. Fifteen of 100 cows (15%) had assisted births, 27 (27%) had RFM, 8 (8%) had primary metritis not associated with other postpartum reproductive problems, and 26 (26%) had secondary metritis. Uterine swabs for culture were collected during the study from cows with postpartum reproductive problems. E . coli was the most common organism isolated (69.4%). Sensitivities of all isolates to penicillin, tetracycline, and triple sulfa were 44.0%, 59.5%, and 36.9% respectively. One of two antibiotic treatments were administered to cows with these postpartum reproductive problems. Treated animals received either 5 g. tetracycline powder IU on day 1 of treatment plus 10.5 million units procaine penicillin G IM on days 1, 2, and 3; or 4 Sulfaurea boluses IU on day 1. Despite the antibiotic treatments, 26 of 34 cows having either assisted birth and/or RFM developed metritis (76%). Neither treatment regimen was superior to the other. The poor results of antimicrobial therapy suggested the futility of routine administration of therapeutic agents for postpartum reproductive problems. Treatment failure was attributed to ineffective drugs or inadequate dosage regimens.  相似文献   

8.
Age‐related patterns of survival and reproduction have been explained by accumulated experience (‘experience hypothesis’), increased effort (‘effort hypothesis’), and intrinsic differences in phenotypes (‘selection hypothesis’). We examined the experience and effort hypotheses using a 40‐year data set in a population of Leach's storm‐petrels Oceanodroma leucorhoa, long‐lived seabirds for which the effect of phenotypic variation has been previously demonstrated. Age was quantified by time since recruitment (‘breeding age’). The best model of adult survival included a positive effect of breeding age (1, 2, 3+ years), sex (male > female), and year. Among‐individuals variation (fixed heterogeneity) accounted for 31.6% of the variance in annual reproductive success. We further examined within‐individual patterns in reproductive success (dynamic heterogeneity) in the subset of individuals with at least five breeding attempts. Three distinct phases characterized reproductive success – early increase, long asymptotic peak, late decline. No effect of early reproductive output on longevity was found, however, early success was positively correlated with lifetime reproductive success. Reproductive success was lower earlier than later in life. Among the few natally philopatric individuals in the population, age of first breeding had no effect on longevity, lifetime reproductive success, or early reproductive success. No support for the effort hypothesis was found in this population. Instead, age‐specific patterns of survival and reproduction in these birds are best explained by the experience hypothesis over and above the effect of intrinsic differences among individuals.  相似文献   

9.
We studied the effect of permanent spatial heterogeneity in promoting species coexistence in a lottery model. The system consisted of multiple habitats, each composed of a number of sites occupied by adults of two species. Larvae produced from different habitats were mixed in a common pool. When an adult died, the vacant site became occupied by an individual randomly chosen from the larval pool. If there were n habitats, there could be up to n-1 internal equilibria with both species in addition to two single-species equilibria. These equilibria and their local stability can be calculated from a single function, indicating the difference among species in their average lifetime reproductive success. Our main result is that between-habitat variation in the ratio of mortalities of two species promotes coexistence, while that of reproductive rates does not. This conclusion is the opposite of the role of temporal variation in the standard lottery model, in which between-year variation in the reproductive rate, but not that in the mortalities, promotes coexistence.  相似文献   

10.
At the intraspecific level, the size-advantage model attempts to explain why some species change sex and others do not. Generally, sex change is favored if the relation between reproductive success and size or age differ between the sexes. Differential costs of reproduction and the mating system appear to be among the major factors producing differences in reproductive expectations between the sexes. On the intraspecific level, tests of the model consist of predicting the optimal size or age of sex change. In general, an individual should change sex if it can increase its reproductive value (future expected reproduction) by doing so. Reproductive values are often dependent on the local environment, local population demography, and the individual's own status, and labile sex change appears to be common. Many of the objections to the size-advantage model arise from confusion between the intraspecific and intraspecific versions.  相似文献   

11.
Reproductive aging is associated with ovulatory defects. Age-related ovarian fibrosis partially contributes to this phenotype as short-term treatment with anti-fibrotic compounds improves ovulation in reproductively old mice. However, age-dependent changes that are intrinsic to the follicle may also be relevant. In this study, we used a mouse model to demonstrate that reproductive aging is associated with impaired cumulus expansion which is accompanied by altered morphokinetic behavior of cumulus cells as assessed by time-lapse microscopy. The extracellular matrix integrity of expanded cumulus–oocyte complexes is compromised with advanced age as evidenced by increased penetration of fluorescent nanoparticles in a particle exclusion assay and larger open spaces on scanning electron microscopy. Reduced hyaluronan (HA) levels, decreased expression of genes encoding HA-associated proteins (e.g., Ptx3 and Tnfaip6), and increased expression of inflammatory genes and matrix metalloproteinases underlie this loss of matrix integrity. Importantly, HA levels are decreased with age in follicular fluid of women, indicative of conserved reproductive aging mechanisms. These findings provide novel mechanistic insights into how defects in cumulus expansion contribute to age-related infertility and may serve as a target to extend reproductive longevity.  相似文献   

12.
Summary Six straightbred lines of mice, some of their F1 crosses and a synthetic line were used to evaluate male and female contributions to heterosis in lifetime performance measured on females. Females from each straightbred line or F1 crosses were pair-mated randomly at day 42 with either a male of the corresponding genetic group or from a synthetic line, and pairs were maintained for 155 days (lifetime). Each mother was allowed to rear all young born alive until day 18 when the young were discarded. Data were analyzed using a model in which the group mean of lifetime performance was expressed as the sum of (additive direct) genetic and environmental effects for each of the male and female genetic groups used for mating. Comparison of group means for lifetime performance revealed that estimates of F1 heterosis due to male and female averaged 10 and 9% for number of parturitions during lifetime, 7 and 28% for total number of young born alive, 6 and 31% for total body weight of young born alive, 8 and 33% for total number of young raised to day 18, 9 and 43% for total body weight of young raised to weaning, and 8 and 8% for days from first mating to last parturition. The male's contribution to heterosis in lifetime performance was smaller than female's contribution for productive traits (total number of young born alive and at day 18, and total body weight of young born alive and at day 18), and was nearly equal in reproductive traits (number of parturitions during lifetime and days from first mating to last parturition).Animal Research Centre Contribution No. 1098  相似文献   

13.
The objective of the study presented here was to analyze the genetic relationships among heifer pregnancy (HP), age at first calving (AFC), stayability (STAY), average annual productivity of the cow, in kilograms of weaned calf per cow per year (PRODAM), postweaning weight gain (PWG), and hip height (HH) of Nelore females from 12 Brazilian herds. (Co)variance components were obtained by six-trait animal model using Gibbs sampling. The posterior mean of the heritability estimates were 0.37, 0.18, 0.19, 0.16, 0.21, and 0.37 for HP, AFC, STAY, PRODAM, PWG, and HH, respectively. In general, the genetic correlations were strong between traits related to reproduction, for example, −0.85 between HP and AFC, and 0.94 between STAY and PRODAM. Weak genetic correlations were obtained between reproductive and growth traits (absolute values ranging from 0.02 to 0.30). Although weak, the genetic correlations between PWG and reproductive traits were favorable, whereas the genetic correlations between HH and reproductive traits were close to zero and slightly unfavorable for HP, AFC, and STAY. An increase of HH is therefore expected to have little or no negative effect on the reproductive performance of females. The posterior mean of genetic correlation between PWG and HH was moderate (0.50). On the basis of the heritability, genetic correlation estimates, and time to obtain data, HP and PRODAM seems to show the best potential as selection criteria to improve the productive and reproductive performance of Nelore females. In principle, it is possible to select for increased PWG without compromising the reproduction of Nelore females. However, selection for PWG may result in an increase of female HH as a correlated response, a fact that could increase management costs in advanced generations of selection. In the light of the results, all traits studied here can be used as selection criteria and there is no strong evidence of genetic antagonism among traits related to reproduction and growth of Nelore females.  相似文献   

14.
We describe the first large scale analysis of gene translation that is based on a model that takes into account the physical and dynamical nature of this process. The Ribosomal Flow Model (RFM) predicts fundamental features of the translation process, including translation rates, protein abundance levels, ribosomal densities and the relation between all these variables, better than alternative ('non-physical') approaches. In addition, we show that the RFM can be used for accurate inference of various other quantities including genes' initiation rates and translation costs. These quantities could not be inferred by previous predictors. We find that increasing the number of available ribosomes (or equivalently the initiation rate) increases the genomic translation rate and the mean ribosome density only up to a certain point, beyond which both saturate. Strikingly, assuming that the translation system is tuned to work at the pre-saturation point maximizes the predictive power of the model with respect to experimental data. This result suggests that in all organisms that were analyzed (from bacteria to Human), the global initiation rate is optimized to attain the pre-saturation point. The fact that similar results were not observed for heterologous genes indicates that this feature is under selection. Remarkably, the gap between the performance of the RFM and alternative predictors is strikingly large in the case of heterologous genes, testifying to the model's promising biotechnological value in predicting the abundance of heterologous proteins before expressing them in the desired host.  相似文献   

15.
Dairy production systems are often criticized as being major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG). In this context, the extension of the length of the productive life of dairy cows is gaining interest as a potential GHG mitigation option. In the present study, we investigated cow and system GHG emission intensity and profitability based on data from 30 dairy cows of different productive lifetime fed either no or limited amounts of concentrate. Detailed information concerning productivity, feeding and individual enteric methane emissions of the individuals was available from a controlled experiment and herd book databases. A simplified GHG balance was calculated for each animal based on the milk produced at the time of the experiment and for their entire lifetime milk production. For the lifetime production, we also included the emissions arising from potential beef produced by fattening the offspring of the dairy cows. This accounted for the effect that changes in the length of productive life will affect the replacement rate and thus the number of calves that can be used for beef production. Profitability was assessed by calculating revenues and full economic costs for the cows in the data set. Both emission intensity and profitability were most favourable in cows with long productive life, whereas cows that had not finished their first lactation performed particularly unfavourably with regard to their emissions per unit of product and rearing costs were mostly not repaid. Including the potential beef production, GHG emissions in relation to total production of animal protein also decreased with age, but the overall variability was greater, as the individual cow history (lifetime milk yield, twin births, stillbirths, etc.) added further sources of variation. The present results show that increasing the length of productive life of dairy cows is a viable way to reduce the climate impact and to improve profitability of dairy production.  相似文献   

16.
To simulate the consequences of management in dairy herds, the use of individual-based herd models is very useful and has become common. Reproduction is a key driver of milk production and herd dynamics, whose influence has been magnified by the decrease in reproductive performance over the last decades. Moreover, feeding management influences milk yield (MY) and body reserves, which in turn influence reproductive performance. Therefore, our objective was to build an up-to-date animal reproduction model sensitive to both MY and body condition score (BCS). A dynamic and stochastic individual reproduction model was built mainly from data of a single recent long-term experiment. This model covers the whole reproductive process and is composed of a succession of discrete stochastic events, mainly calving, ovulations, conception and embryonic loss. Each reproductive step is sensitive to MY or BCS levels or changes. The model takes into account recent evolutions of reproductive performance, particularly concerning calving-to-first ovulation interval, cyclicity (normal cycle length, prevalence of prolonged luteal phase), oestrus expression and pregnancy (conception, early and late embryonic loss). A sensitivity analysis of the model to MY and BCS at calving was performed. The simulated performance was compared with observed data from the database used to build the model and from the bibliography to validate the model. Despite comprising a whole series of reproductive steps, the model made it possible to simulate realistic global reproduction outputs. It was able to well simulate the overall reproductive performance observed in farms in terms of both success rate (recalving rate) and reproduction delays (calving interval). This model has the purpose to be integrated in herd simulation models to usefully test the impact of management strategies on herd reproductive performance, and thus on calving patterns and culling rates.  相似文献   

17.

Background

Maternal perception of reduced fetal movement (RFM) is associated with increased risk of stillbirth and fetal growth restriction (FGR). DFM is thought to represent fetal compensation to conserve energy due to insufficient oxygen and nutrient transfer resulting from placental insufficiency. To date there have been no studies of placental structure in cases of DFM.

Objective

To determine whether maternal perception of reduced fetal movements (RFM) is associated with abnormalities in placental structure and function.

Design

Placentas were collected from women with RFM after 28 weeks gestation if delivery occurred within 1 week. Women with normal movements served as a control group. Placentas were weighed and photographs taken. Microscopic structure was evaluated by immunohistochemical staining and image analysis. System A amino acid transporter activity was measured as a marker of placental function.Placentas from all pregnancies with RFM (irrespective of outcome) had greater area with signs of infarction (3.5% vs. 0.6%; p<0.01), a higher density of syncytial knots (p<0.001) and greater proliferation index (p<0.01). Villous vascularity (p<0.001), trophoblast area (p<0.01) and system A activity (p<0.01) were decreased in placentas from RFM compared to controls irrespective of outcome of pregnancy.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence of abnormal placental morphology and function in women with RFM and supports the proposition of a causal association between placental insufficiency and RFM. This suggests that women presenting with RFM require further investigation to identify those with placental insufficiency.  相似文献   

18.
Clutch size, offspring performance, and intergenerational fitness   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
It is now generally recognized that clutch size affects morethan offspring number. In particular, clutch size affects asuite of traits associated with offspring reproductive performance.Optimal clutch size is therefore determined not by the numericallymost productive clutch but by the clutch that maximizes collectiveoffspring reproductive success. Calculation of optimal clutchsize thus requires a consideration of ecological factors operatingduring an intergenerational time frame, spanning the lifetimeof the egglaying adult and the lifetimes of her offspring. Theoptimal clutch cannot define reproductive values in advance,but instead requires that the strategy chosen is the best responseto the set of reproductive values that it itself generates.In this article, we introduce methods for solving this problem,based on an iterative solution of the equation characterizingexpected lifetime reproductive success. We begin by consideringa semelparous organism, in which case lifetime reproductivesuccess is a function only of the state of the organism. Foran iteroparous organism, lifetime reproductive success dependsupon both state and time, so that our methods extend the usualstochastic dynamic programming approach to the evaluation oflifetime reproductive success. The methods are intuitive andeasily used. We consider both semelparous and iteroparous organisms,stable and varying environments, and describe how our methodscan be employed empirically.  相似文献   

19.
A power-like decay function, characterized by the mean excited-state lifetime and relative variance of lifetime fluctuation around the mean value, was applied in analysis of fluorescence decays measured with the aid of time-correlated single photon counting. We have examined the fluorescence decay, in neutral aqueous medium, of tyrosine (L-tyrosine and N-acetyl-L-tyrosinamide), and of the tyrosine residues in a tryptophan-free protein, the enzyme purine nucleoside phosphorylase from Escherichia coli in a complex with formycin A (an inhibitor), and orthophosphate (a co-substrate). Tryptophan fluorescence decay was examined in neutral aqueous medium for L-tryptophan, N-acetyl-L-tryptophanamide, and for two tryptophan residues in horse liver alcohol dehydrogenase. To detect solvent effect, fluorescence decay of Nz-acetyl-L-tryptophanamide in aqueous medium was compared with that in dioxan. Hitherto, complex fluorescence decays have usually been analyzed with the aid of a multiexponential model, but interpretation of the individual exponential terms (i.e., pre-exponential amplitudes and fluorescence lifetimes), has not been adequately characterized. In such cases the intensity decays were also analyzed in terms of the lifetime distribution as a consequence of an interaction of fluorophore with environment. We show that the power-like decay function, which can be directly obtained from the gamma distribution of fluorescence lifetimes, is simpler and provides good fits to highly complex fluorescence decays as well as to a purely single-exponential decay. Possible interpretation of the power-like model is discussed.  相似文献   

20.
Evaluation of lifetime productivity is sensible to target interventions for improving productivity of smallholder dairy systems in the highlands of East Africa, because cows are normally not disposed of based on productive reasons. Feeding strategies and involuntary culling may have long-term effects on productive (and therefore economic) performance of dairy systems. Because of the temporal scale needed to evaluate lifetime productivity, experimentation with feedstuffs in single lactations is not enough to assess improvements in productivity. A dynamic modelling approach was used to explore the effect of feeding strategies on the lifetime productivity of dairy cattle. We used LIVSIM (LIVestock SIMulator), an individual-based, dynamic model in which performance depends on genetic potential of the breed and feeding. We tested the model for the highlands of Central Kenya, and simulated individual animals throughout their lifetime using scenarios with different diets based on common feedstuffs used in these systems (Napier grass, maize stover and dairy concentrates), with and without imposing random mortality on different age classes. The simulations showed that it is possible to maximise lifetime productivity by supplementing concentrates to meet the nutrient requirements of cattle during lactation, and during early development to reduce age at first calving and extend productive life. Avoiding undernutrition during the dry period by supplementing the diet with 0.5 kg of concentrates per day helped to increase productivity and productive life, but in practice farmers may not perceive the immediate economic benefits because the results of this practice are manifested through a cumulative, long-term effect. Survival analyses indicated that unsupplemented diets prolong calving intervals and therefore, reduce lifetime productivity. The simulations with imposed random mortality showed a reduction of 43% to 65% in all productivity indicators. Milk production may be increased on average by 1400 kg per lactation by supplementing the diet with 5 kg of concentrates during early lactation and 1 kg during late lactation, although the optimal supplementation may change according to milk and concentrate prices. Reducing involuntary culling must be included as a key goal when designing interventions to improve productivity and sustainability of smallholder dairy systems, because increasing lifetime productivity may have a larger impact on smallholders’ income than interventions targeted to only improving daily milk yields through feeding strategies.  相似文献   

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