基于地理加权回归模型探究环境异质性对秦岭大熊猫空间利用的影响

环境异质性对野生动物分布的影响具有明显的空间不均匀性。传统分析中多采用经典线性回归模型来量化野生动物分布与环境变量之间的关系,难以准确反映物种-环境关系的空间异质特征。地理加权回归(GWR)是近年来提出的一种新的空间分析方法,通过将空间结构嵌入线性回归模型中,以此来探测空间关系的非均匀性。以秦岭大熊猫为例,应用GWR模型分析大熊猫空间分布与环境异质性特征之间的潜在关系,并同经典的全局最小二乘回归法(OLS)进行比较。结果表明,GWR模型的AIC、R²和校正R²均显著优于OLS模型,GWR模型的局部回归系数估计能够更加深刻地揭示大熊猫空间分布与环境变量间的复杂空间关系,且GWR模型能够为物种的科学保护提供更加有效的理论支撑。因此,GWR模型可为探究物种-环境关系的空间异质特征提供一种新的方法,在物种栖息地选择与利用研究中具有一定的应用前景。     

Plio-Pleistocene climate change and geographic heterogeneity in plant diversity–environment relationships

Plio‐Pleistocene climate change may have induced geographic heterogeneity in plant species richness–environment relationships in Europe due to greater in situ species survival and speciation rates in southern Europe. We formulate distinct hypotheses on how Plio‐Pleistocene climate change may have affected richness–topographic heterogeneity and richness–water‐energy availability relationships, causing steeper relationships in southern Europe. We investigated these hypotheses using data from Atlas Florae Europaeae on the distribution of 3069 species and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Our analyses showed that plant species richness generally increased with topographic heterogeneity (ln‐transformed altitudinal range) and actual evapotranspiration (AET). We also found evidence for strong geographic heterogeneity in the species richness–environment relationship, with a greater increase in species richness with increasing topographic heterogeneity in southern Europe (mean standardized local slope 0.610±0.245 SD in southern Europe, but only 0.270±0.175 SD in northern Europe). However, the local AET slopes were, at most, weakly different between the two regions, and their pattern did not conform to predictions, as there was a band of high local slopes across southern‐central northern Europe. This band broadly matches the transition between the temperate and boreal zones and may simply reflect the fact that few species tolerate the boreal climate. We discuss the potential explanations for the contrasting findings for the two richness–environment relationships. In conclusion, we find support for the idea that Plio‐Pleistocene climate change may sometimes affect current species richness–environment relationships via its effects on regional species pools. However, further studies integrating information on species ages and clade differentiation rates will be needed to substantiate this interpretation. On a general level, our results indicate that although strong richness–environment relationships are often found in macroecological studies, these can be contingent upon the historical constraints on the species pool.     

Application of geographically weighted regression in estimating the effect of climate and site conditions on vegetation distribution in Haihe Catchment,China

Climate and topography are the two key factors influencing vegetation pattern, distribution, and plant growth. Traditionally, studies on the relationship between vegetation and climate rely largely on field data from limited samples. Now, digital elevation model (DEM) and remote sensing data readily provide huge amounts of spatial data on site-specific conditions like elevation, aspect, and climate, while recent development of geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis facilitates efficient spatial evaluation of interactions among vegetation and site conditions. Using Haihe Catchment as a case study, GWR is applied in establishing spatial relations among leaf area index (LAI; a critical vegetation index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) and interpolated climate variables and site conditions including elevation, aspect, and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). This study suggests that the GWR solution to spatial effect of climate and site conditions on vegetation is much better than ordinary least squares (OLS). In most of the study area, effects of elevation, aspect change from south to north, and precipitation on LAI are positive, while temperature, TWI, and potential evapotranspiration have a negative influence. Spatially, models perform better in places with large spatial variations in LAI—primarily driven by strong spatial variations in temperature and precipitation. On the contrary, the effect of topographic and climatic factors on vegetation is weak in regions with small spatial variations in LAI. This study shows that overall water availability is a determining factor for spatial variations in vegetation.     

Direct and plant‐mediated effects of climate on bird diversity in tropical mountains

AimAlthough patterns of biodiversity across the globe are well studied, there is still a controversial debate about the underlying mechanisms and their generality across biogeographic scales. In particular, it is unclear to what extent diversity patterns along environmental gradients are directly driven by abiotic factors, such as climate, or indirectly mediated through biotic factors, such as resource effects on consumers.LocationAndes, Southern Ecuador; Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.MethodsWe studied the diversity of fleshy‐fruited plants and avian frugivores at the taxonomic level, that is, species richness and abundance, as well as at the level of functional traits, that is, functional richness and functional dispersion. We compared two important biodiversity hotspots in mountain systems of the Neotropics and Afrotropics. We used field data of plant and bird communities, including trait measurements of 367 plant and bird species. Using structural equation modeling, we disentangled direct and indirect effects of climate and the diversity of plant communities on the diversity of bird communities.ResultsWe found significant bottom‐up effects of fruit diversity on frugivore diversity at the taxonomic level. In contrast, climate was more important for patterns of functional diversity, with plant communities being mostly related to precipitation, and bird communities being most strongly related to temperature.Main conclusionsOur results illustrate the general importance of bottom‐up mechanisms for the taxonomic diversity of consumers, suggesting the importance of active resource tracking. Our results also suggest that it might be difficult to identify signals of ecological fitting between functional plant and animal traits across biogeographic regions, since different species groups may respond to different climatic drivers. This decoupling between resource and consumer communities could increase under future climate change if plant and animal communities are consistently related to distinct climatic drivers.     

Spatial patterns of species richness in New World coral snakes and the metabolic theory of ecology

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) has attracted great interest because it proposes an explanation for species diversity gradients based on temperature-metabolism relationships of organisms. Here we analyse the spatial richness pattern of 73 coral snake species from the New World in the context of MTE. We first analysed the association between ln-transformed richness and environmental variables, including the inverse transformation of annual temperature (1/kT). We used eigenvector-based spatial filtering to remove the residual spatial autocorrelation in the data and geographically weighted regression to account for non-stationarity in data. In a model I regression (OLS), the observed slope between ln-richness and 1/kT was ?0.626 (r² = 0.413), but a model II regression generated a much steeper slope (?0.975). When we added additional environmental correlates and the spatial filters in the OLS model, the R² increased to 0.863 and the partial regression coefficient of 1/kT was ?0.676. The GWR detected highly significant non-stationarity, in data, and the median of local slopes of ln-richness against 1/kT was ?0.38. Our results expose several problems regarding the assumptions needed to test MTE: although the slope of OLS fell within that predicted by the theory and the dataset complied with the assumption of temperature-independence of average body size, the fact that coral snakes consist of a restricted taxonomic group and the non-stationarity of slopes across geographical space makes MTE invalid to explain richness in this case. Also, it is clear that other ecological and historical factors are important drivers of species richness patterns and must be taken into account both in theoretical modeling and data analysis.     

Application of a geographically-weighted regression analysis to estimate net primary production of Chinese forest ecosystems

Aim The objective of this paper is to obtain a net primary production (NPP) regression model based on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, which includes spatial non‐stationarity in the parameters estimated for forest ecosystems in China. Location We used data across China. Methods We examine the relationships between NPP of Chinese forest ecosystems and environmental variables, specifically altitude, temperature, precipitation and time‐integrated normalized difference vegetation index (TINDVI) based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, the spatial lag model and GWR methods. Results The GWR method made significantly better predictions of NPP in simulations than did OLS, as indicated both by corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC_c) and R². GWR provided a value of 4891 for AIC_c and 0.66 for R², compared with 5036 and 0.58, respectively, by OLS. GWR has the potential to reveal local patterns in the spatial distribution of a parameter, which would be ignored by the OLS approach. Furthermore, OLS may provide a false general relationship between spatially non‐stationary variables. Spatial autocorrelation violates a basic assumption of the OLS method. The spatial lag model with the consideration of spatial autocorrelation had improved performance in the NPP simulation as compared with OLS (5001 for AIC_c and 0.60 for R²), but it was still not as good as that via the GWR method. Moreover, statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the NPP residuals with the spatial lag model at small spatial scales, while no positive spatial autocorrelation across spatial scales can be found in the GWR residuals. Conclusions We conclude that the regression analysis for Chinese forest NPP with respect to environmental factors and based alternatively on OLS, the spatial lag model, and GWR methods indicated that there was a significant improvement in model performance of GWR over OLS and the spatial lag model.     

Species richness of woody plants in the landscapes of Central Spain: the role of management disturbances,environment and non‐stationarity

Questions: How important is management disturbance on gamma species richness of woody plants at intermediate landscape scales? How is species richness related to other climatic and biotic factors in the study area? How does the assumption of spatial stationarity affect assessment of relationships among species richness and explanatory variables (e.g. management, biotic and climatic factors) across extensive study areas? Location: Central Spain (regions of Castilla y León, Madrid and Castilla‐La Mancha). Scale: Extent: 150 000 km². Grain: 25 km² (5 × 5‐km cells). Methods: Information from 21 064 plots from the 3SNFI was used to evaluate richness of tree and shrub species at intermediate landscape scales. In addition to variables well known to explain biodiversity, e.g. environmental and biotic factors, effect of management treatments was evaluated by assessing clearcutting, selection cutting, stand improvement treatments and agrosilvopastoral systems (dehesas). Results from GWR techniques were compared with those from OLS regression. Results: Patterns of gamma species richness, although strongly affected by both environmental and biotic variables, were also significantly modified by management factors. Species richness increased with percentage of selection cutting stands and improvement treatments but decreased with percentage of clearcutting stands. Reduced species richness of woody plants was associated with agrosilvopastoral practices. Species richness for trees was closely related to basal area, annual precipitation and topographic complexity; species richness for shrubs was closely related to topographic complexity and agrosilvopastoral systems. Most relationships between species richness and environmental or biotic factors were non‐stationary. Relationships between species richness and management effects tended to be stationary, with a few exceptions. Conclusions: Landscape models of biodiversity in Central Spain were more informative when they accounted for effects of management practices, at least at intermediate scales. In the context of current rural abandonment, silvicultural disturbances of intermediate intensity increased gamma species richness of woody plants. Exclusion of factors such as agrosilvopastoral systems from models could have led to spurious relationships with other spatially co‐varying factors (e.g. summer precipitation). Patterns of spatial variation in relationships, provided by GWR models, allowed formulating hypotheses about potential ecological processes underlying them, beyond generalizations resulting from global (OLS) models.     

Height and death in the Antebellum United States: A view through the lens of geographically weighted regression

Factors related to geography such as climate, natural resources or waterways often affect human activities. However, traditional approaches such as ordinary least squares (OLS) have limitations in investigating such patterns. Unlike OLS regression, geographically weighted regression (GWR) allows the coefficients of explanatory variables to differ by locality by giving relatively more weight to geographically close observations. GWR depicts spatial patterns. This paper examines the pattern of height and crude death rate in the United States prior to the Civil War by this method. The GWR results show that access to water transportation increased mortality and decreased stature in the food exporting areas of the Midwest, and the opposite pattern appeared in the food importing areas of the Northeast.     

Climate change‐induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China

Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.     

四川夹金山小型兽类区系及多样性

夹金山位于西南山地,是近年来生物多样性研究的热点地区,我们对其不同海拔和不同生境类型的小型兽类进行了调查,共捕获927 号个体,隶属4 目8 科35 种,其中啮齿类16 种,食虫类16 种,鼠兔类有3 种。数据分析显示:(1) 因南北气候差异,夹金山南坡物种(31)显著高于北坡(20);(2)在35 个物种中,中国特有种高达15 种,同样,该地区食虫类具有较高物种多样性;(3)北坡古北界成分显著高于南坡古北界成分,夹金山在一定程度上限制了古北界和东洋界物种的南北交流;(4)南坡小型兽类物种多样性最高见于中海拔区域(2 400 ～ 3 000 m),低海拔区域人类干扰严重,高海拔区域植被类型单一,然而北坡由于低海拔区域气候干旱,多样性最高的海拔区域(3 000 ～ 3 600 m)呈现上移。夹金山内复杂的地形有助于物种分化,并为小型兽类提供了多样化的栖息生境。因此,该地区特有种和物种多样性较丰富。该区域内具丰富的食虫类物种,其原因可能是食虫类具有较多的进化优势.     

The role of climate,water and biotic interactions in shaping biodiversity patterns in arid environments across spatial scales

Aim

Desert ecosystems, with their harsh environmental conditions, hold the key to understanding the responses of biodiversity to climate change. As desert community structure is influenced by processes acting at different spatial scales, studies combining multiple scales are essential for understanding the conservation requirements of desert biota. We investigated the role of environmental variables and biotic interactions in shaping broad and fine‐scale patterns of diversity and distribution of bats in arid environments to understand how the expansion of nondesert species can affect the long‐term conservation of desert biodiversity.

Location

Levant, Eastern Mediterranean.

Methods

We combine species distribution modelling and niche overlap statistics with a statistical model selection approach to integrate interspecific interactions into broadscale distribution models and fine‐scale analysis of ecological requirements. We focus on competition between desert bats and mesic species that recently expanded their distribution into arid environment following anthropogenic land‐use changes.

Results

We show that both climate and water availability limit bat distributions and diversity across spatial scales. The broadscale distribution of bats was determined by proximity to water and high temperatures, although the latter did not affect the distribution of mesic species. At the fine‐scale, high levels of bat activity and diversity were associated with increased water availability and warmer periods. Desert species were strongly associated with warmer and drier desert types. Range and niche overlap were high among potential competitors, but coexistence was facilitated through fine‐scale spatial partitioning of water resources.

Main conclusions

Adaptations to drier and warmer conditions allow desert‐obligate species to prevail in more arid environments. However, this competitive advantage may disappear as anthropogenic activities encroach further into desert habitats. We conclude that reduced water availability in arid environments under future climate change projections pose a major threat to desert wildlife because it can affect survival and reproductive success and may increase competition over remaining water resources.     

中国黑戈壁植物多样性分布格局及其影响因素

我国西北地区内陆分布着近20万km~2的黑戈壁,由于其环境的特殊性,使其具有独特的生态系统,境内分布着多样的植被,蕴藏着大量特有的自然资源。但由于自然环境苛刻与交通条件不便,目前我国关于黑戈壁区系统的植被与物种多样性的研究还很缺乏。针对黑戈壁区植物多样性组成与分布特点,基于遥感及实地调查,采用DCCA排序和半变异函数模型等分析方法,对黑戈壁区植物群落组成,植物多样性特点及影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明:研究区植物以藜科和蒺藜科灌木或半灌木为主,群落物种生活型具有逐渐趋于简单甚至单一的特性,重要值0.1的植物主要有梭梭、红砂、白刺等13种;群落物种多样性呈现区域性的斑块化分布,结构性因子引起的物种多样性空间异质性占主导地位;作为极端干旱区,该区植物群落类型具有贫乏化及单一化的趋势,群落结构简单,植被覆盖度低,植物生长随环境的变化具有明显的可塑性,群落空间分异明显,群落空间演变具有明显的水分及土壤结构梯度;DCCA结果显示气候、土壤、地形是群落物种及类型变化的主要原因,海拔、坡位、土壤机械组成、降水、温度等环境因子对群落有着显著的影响,水土条件的空间异质性是戈壁植物多样性维持的关键因素。     

基于GWR模型的东江水质空间分异与水生态功能分区验证

流域水生态功能分区研究是我国正在开展的一项重要工作,如何验证分区结果的合理性,是当前亟待解决的问题。采用地理加权回归(GWR)模型评估流域特征对东江水质的影响,验证水质及流域影响空间差异是否与一二级水生态功能分区结果吻合,并对比了GWR模型与普通最小二乘(OLS)模型性能,讨论了GWR在分区验证方面的应用价值及不足。结果显示:1)水质指标以及GWR模型局部解释率(Local R~2)均在一二级水生态功能分区间存在显著差异;2)相比OLS模型,GWR模型校正R~2更高,残差空间自相关指数Moran′s I更低。研究表明东江水生态功能分区结果能合理反映水陆耦合关系,有效解释水质空间差异。此外建议选择总氮(TN)而非溶解氧(DO)和总磷(TP)作为分区验证指标。GWR模型在分区结果验证中具有广泛应用前景。降低数据空间自相关影响及改善距离测度方法是未来GWR模型研究的难点问题。     

The relationship between soil water storage capacity and plant species diversity in high alpine vegetation

Background: In those alpine regions where growing season precipitation is decreasing due to climate change, the capacity of soils to retain water may become an important factor for the persistence of plant species. However, the importance of soil water storage capacity (WSC) for plant species diversity has not been studied so far.

Aims: We aim to evaluate the relevance of WSC for species diversity of alpine plant communities in relation to temperature and length of growing season.

Methods: Species diversity was determined in 150 plots from a broad range of alpine vegetation types in the calcareous western part of the central Swiss Alps. WSC of soil cores sampled in every plot was determined, as well as rooting zone temperature and snowmelt date. Linear mixed models were used to assess the relationship between environmental data and species diversity.

Results: Species diversity was most strongly and positively related to WSC, followed by mean daily minimum temperature (T_min) of the growing season. Species diversity was significantly related to date of snowmelt only in sites with high WSC and/or T_min.

Conclusions: WSC represents an integrative measure for habitat quality and accounts for differences in species diversity within the study region. In order to understand and predict responses of plant species to climate change in high mountain regions, it may be crucial to also take changes in plant water supply into account.     

The shift from plant–plant facilitation to competition under severe water deficit is spatially explicit

The stress‐gradient hypothesis predicts a higher frequency of facilitative interactions as resource limitation increases. Under severe resource limitation, it has been suggested that facilitation may revert to competition, and identifying the presence as well as determining the magnitude of this shift is important for predicting the effect of climate change on biodiversity and plant community dynamics. In this study, we perform a meta‐analysis to compare temporal differences of species diversity and productivity under a nurse plant (Retama sphaerocarpa) with varying annual rainfall quantity to test the effect of water limitation on facilitation. Furthermore, we assess spatial differences in the herbaceous community under nurse plants in situ during a year with below‐average rainfall. We found evidence that severe rainfall deficit reduced species diversity and plant productivity under nurse plants relative to open areas. Our results indicate that the switch from facilitation to competition in response to rainfall quantity is nonlinear. The magnitude of this switch depended on the aspect around the nurse plant. Hotter south aspects under nurse plants resulted in negative effects on beneficiary species, while the north aspect still showed facilitation. Combined, these results emphasize the importance of spatial heterogeneity under nurse plants for mediating species loss under reduced precipitation, as predicted by future climate change scenarios. However, the decreased water availability expected under climate change will likely reduce overall facilitation and limit the role of nurse plants as refugia, amplifying biodiversity loss.     

山地物种海拔分布对气候变化响应的研究进展

过去1个世纪以来, 全球气候变化显著并已成为全球生物多样性面临的重要威胁之一。如何利用有限的资源最有效地保护生物多样性已成为亟待解决的最重要科学问题之一。山地因其具有较高的生境异质性、气候多样性和较低的人类活动干扰, 已成为最重要的生物多样性避难所, 也具有较高的生态服务价值, 在生物多样性保护中扮演着重要角色。但山地更容易受到气候变化的影响, 山地地区较为剧烈的气候变化将对山地生态系统的稳定性及其多样性造成严重威胁。理解山地物种海拔分布对气候变化的响应和潜在机理, 以及气候变化带来的物种海拔分布变化的负面效应, 将为全球气候变化背景下的山地生物多样性保护提供参考依据。本文综述了全球山地地区的气候变化情况, 总结了物种海拔迁移的研究进展, 重点讨论了山地物种分布最适海拔、海拔上下限和海拔分布范围变化的研究进展及不足, 比较了不同地区和不同类群物种海拔迁移的差异性, 以及物种对气候变化响应的滞后性。从生物及非生物因素等多个角度概括了物种海拔迁移响应气候变化的潜在机理, 评估并总结了气候变化引起的物种海拔分布所产生的负面效应, 主要对物种向上迁移对高海拔地区物种多样性的影响、物种迁移带来的分布区改变导致的物种灭绝风险以及物种海拔分布变化导致的种间相互作用改变等方面进行全面探讨。最后, 展望了未来在此领域研究中应注意的问题, 提出了在未来气候变化下山地生物多样性保护需要采取的措施, 强调应重点关注对气候变化较为敏感的类群及生物多样性区域, 加强中国山地物种对气候变化响应的监测网络建设和研究力度, 重点加强监测气候变化对动植物互作关系的影响。     

Patterns of species diversity and phylogenetic structure of vascular plants on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau

Large-scale patterns of species richness and the underlying mechanisms regulating these patterns have long been the central issues in biogeography and macroecology. Phylogenetic community structure is a result of combined effects of contemporary ecological interactions, environmental filtering, and evolutionary history, and it links community ecology with biogeography and trait evolution. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau provides a good opportunity to test the influence of contemporary climate on shaping species richness because of its unique geological history, cold climate, and high biodiversity. In this study, based on high-resolution distributions of ˜9000 vascular plant species, we explored how species richness and phylogenetic structure of vascular plants correlate with climates on the highest (and species rich) plateau on the Earth. The results showed that most of the vascular plants were distributed on the eastern part of the plateau; there was a strong association between species richness and climate, even after the effects of habitat heterogeneity were controlled. However, the responses of richness to climate remarkably depended on life-forms. Richness of woody plants showed stronger climatic associations than that of herbaceous plants; energy and water availability together regulated richness pattern of woody plants; whereas water availability predominantly regulated richness pattern of herbaceous plants. The phylogenetic structure of vascular species clustered in most areas of the plateau, suggesting that rapid speciation and environment filtering dominated the assembly of communities on the plateau. We further propose that biodiversity conservation in this area should better take into account ecological features for different life-forms and phylogenetic lineages.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

新疆猪毛菜属植物多样性地理分布格局及其环境解释

猪毛菜属(Salsola)是新疆干旱区分布最为丰富的被子植物属之一,是盐碱和荒漠区的先锋种和建群种,对西北干旱区植被恢复与建设具有巨大生态价值。基于新疆自然分布的33种猪毛菜属物种共741个分布数据,整合利用点格局法和物种分布模型法构建了物种丰富度(SR)、加权特有性指数(WE)和校正加权特有性指数(CWE)的分布格局。选取环境能量、水分可获得性、气候季节性、生境异质性、土壤条件和历史气候变化共6类19种生态因子,利用地理加权回归模型(GWR)探究了环境异质性对猪毛菜属物种丰富度的影响。结果显示：(1)基于现实点位模型和物种分布模型构建的物种丰富度具有一致性,均呈北高南低、西高东低的破碎化分布趋势,但物种分布模型的结果在空间上比点格局法更连续,物种丰富度的高值区主要分布于准噶尔盆地南缘、准噶尔西部山地、天山西端和天山南脉南缘;(2)加权特有性指数和校正加权特有性指数的分布格局与物种丰富度分布格局具有一定差异,其最大值集中分布于准噶尔盆地南缘、伊犁河谷和塔里木盆地西南缘;(3)GWR模型结果表明,海拔变幅、土壤酸碱度和最干月降水量是制约新疆分布的猪毛菜属丰富度和特有性分布的最重要因素。     

Seed‐dispersal networks respond differently to resource effects in open and forest habitats

While patterns in species diversity have been well studied across large‐scale environmental gradients, little is known about how species’ interaction networks change in response to abiotic and biotic factors across such gradients. Here we studied seed‐dispersal networks on 50 study plots distributed over ten different habitat types on the southern slopes of Mt Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, to disentangle the effects of climate, habitat structure, fruit diversity and fruit availability on different measures of interaction diversity. We used direct observations to record the interactions of frugivorous birds and mammals with fleshy‐fruited plants and recorded climatic conditions, habitat structure, fruit diversity and availability. We found that Shannon interaction diversity (H) increased with fruit diversity and availability, whereas interaction evenness (E_H) and network specialization (H₂) responded differently to changes in fruit availability depending on habitat structure. The direction of the effects of fruit availability on E_H and H₂ differed between open habitats at the mountain base and structurally complex habitats in the forest belt. Our findings illustrate that interaction networks react differently to changes in environmental conditions in different ecosystems. Hence, our findings demonstrate that future projections of network structure and associated ecosystem functions need to account for habitat differences among ecosystems.