Commercial Crop Yields Reveal Strengths and Weaknesses for Organic Agriculture in the United States

Land area devoted to organic agriculture has increased steadily over the last 20 years in the United States, and elsewhere around the world. A primary criticism of organic agriculture is lower yield compared to non-organic systems. Previous analyses documenting the yield deficiency in organic production have relied mostly on data generated under experimental conditions, but these studies do not necessarily reflect the full range of innovation or practical limitations that are part of commercial agriculture. The analysis we present here offers a new perspective, based on organic yield data collected from over 10,000 organic farmers representing nearly 800,000 hectares of organic farmland. We used publicly available data from the United States Department of Agriculture to estimate yield differences between organic and conventional production methods for the 2014 production year. Similar to previous work, organic crop yields in our analysis were lower than conventional crop yields for most crops. Averaged across all crops, organic yield averaged 80% of conventional yield. However, several crops had no significant difference in yields between organic and conventional production, and organic yields surpassed conventional yields for some hay crops. The organic to conventional yield ratio varied widely among crops, and in some cases, among locations within a crop. For soybean (Glycine max) and potato (Solanum tuberosum), organic yield was more similar to conventional yield in states where conventional yield was greatest. The opposite trend was observed for barley (Hordeum vulgare), wheat (Triticum aestevum), and hay crops, however, suggesting the geographical yield potential has an inconsistent effect on the organic yield gap.     

中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施

东北、华北和西北50a来的平均气温增幅高于全国平均水平,气候变暖明显,尤其冬季增温最显著。区域增暖的极端最低气温远比极端最高气温的贡献大。东北、华北大部、西北东部降水量明显减少,平均每10a减少20—40mm,尤其春夏季减少最明显。这种趋势一直延续到20世纪90年代以后,干旱化趋势非常突出。在综述我国北方现代气候变化基本特征是暖干化的基础上,重点阐述了喜凉作物冬小麦、春小麦、马铃薯和喜温作物水稻、玉米、谷子、糜子等7种主要粮食作物的生长发育、品种熟性、种植区域与面积、产量与品质等对气候暖干化的响应特征。揭示了气候暖干化使春播作物播期提早,苗期生长发育速度加快,营养生长期提前,生殖生长期和全生育期延长;秋作物发育期推迟,生殖生长期和全生长期延长;越冬作物播期推迟,越冬死亡率降低,种植风险减少,春初提前返青,生殖生长期提早,全生育期缩短。使作物适宜种植区域向高纬度高海拔扩展;品种熟性向偏中晚熟高产品种发展;喜温作物和越冬作物以及冷凉气候区的作物种植面积迅速扩大;在旱作区种植不较耐旱的玉米、春小麦等作物种植面积受到制约。对雨养农业区的作物气候产量影响严重,尤其对不够耐旱的小麦和玉米的气候产量受影响最大;对较耐旱的谷子、糜子、马铃薯等影响较轻。从作物属性而言,对喜温作物水稻、玉米和越冬作物冬小麦有利于气候产量提高;对喜凉作物春小麦和马铃薯的气候产量将产生不利影响。同时,提出了从5个方面应对气候暖干化的技术措施,调整作物种植结构,确保粮食生产安全;根据不同气候年型调整各种作物种植比例;针对不同气候区域发展优势作物和配置作物种植格局;采取不同栽培技术和管理模式应对气候变化;采取综合配套技术提髙抵御灾害能力。为粮食作物安全生产和种植结构调整与布局提供科学依据。     

Long-term yield trends of insect-pollinated crops vary regionally and are linked to neonicotinoid use,landscape complexity,and availability of pollinators

Time series data on crop yields for two main wind-pollinated crops (barley and wheat) and for three crops benefitting from insect pollination (turnip rapeseed, caraway, and black currant), were compiled from official agricultural statistics. In Finland, these statistics are available at aggregate national level, and at the level of each of the 15 provinces of the country. Yields of wind-pollinated crops have steadily increased in Finland, while yields of insect-pollinated crops have been highly variable. The largest crop benefitting from insect pollination is turnip rapeseed, which shows first a clear tendency to increased yields from 1980 to 1993, after which there has been a continuous decline in yields at the national average level. Regionally, the trends in turnip rapeseed yield show large variation, so that in six provinces of Finland, the trend has been significantly decreasing; in five provinces, there has been no significant trend; and in two provinces, there has been a significant linear increase in yields. Yield trends in the two other insect-pollinated crops, caraway and black currants, show similar trend variations. However, at the national average level, caraway yields show no significant trend, while black currant yields have increased during the past 6 years. The possible impact on the trends of insect-pollinated crops of three explanatory variables was analyzed. Significant linear correlation was found between the yield trends (slope of the trends) in rapeseed, and the extent of using neonicotinoid seed dressing in the provinces; the magnitude of yield decline in turnip rapeseed increased, as the use of neonicotinoid seed dressing increased. Similar significant linear correlation was found for the magnitude of yield decline in turnip rapeseed and the complexity of the agricultural landscape in each province; yield trend changed from negative to positive as the proportion of agricultural land of the total terrestrial land area declined from 28% to below 10%. The availability of honey bee colonies with respect to the growing area of crops benefitting from insect pollination also had a linear, significant impact on turnip rapeseed yield trends: yields tended to decline in provinces, where the supply of managed pollinators with respect to demand was low, but tended to increase in provinces, where the number of honey bee colonies were over 30% of the estimated demand. As neither the landscape complexity (proportion of arable land of total terrestrial land area), nor the number of honey bee colonies for pollination have changed significantly over the past 10–20 years, these factors cannot explain the observed differences in the yield trends of the examined insect-pollinated crops. It appears that only the uptake of neonicotinoid insecticide seed dressing about 15 years ago can explain the crop yield declines in several provinces, and at the national level for turnip rapeseed, most likely via disruption of pollination services by wild pollinators.     

Do increases in agricultural yield spare land for nature?

Feeding a rapidly expanding human population will require a large increase in the supply of agricultural products during the coming decades. This may lead to the transformation of many landscapes from natural vegetation cover to agricultural land use, unless increases in crop yields reduce the need for new farmland. Here, we assess the evidence that past increases in agricultural yield have spared land for wild nature. We investigated the relationship between the change in the combined energy yield of the 23 most energetically important food crops over the period 1979–1999 and the change in per capita cropland area for 124 countries over the same period. Per capita area of the 23 staple crops tended to decrease in developing countries where large yield increases occurred. However, this was counteracted by a tendency for the area used to grow crops other than staples to increase in the countries where staple crop yields increased. There remained a weak tendency in developing countries for the per capita area of all cropland to decline as staple crop yield increased, a pattern that was most evident in developing countries with the highest per capita food supplies. In developed countries, there was no evidence that higher staple crop yields were associated with decreases in per capita cropland area. This may be because high agricultural subsidies in developed countries override any land-sparing pattern that might otherwise occur. Declines in the area of natural forest were smaller in countries where the yield of staple crops increased most, when the negative effects of human population increases on forest area were controlled for. Our results show that land-sparing is a weak process that occurs under a limited set of circumstances, but that it can have positive outcomes for the conservation of wild nature.     

Temporal robustness of linear relationships between production and transpiration

Seasonal dependence of biomass production on transpiration has been previously reported for a number of crops under salinity and drought. Linear yield (Y) to transpiration (T) relationships have been utilized in plant-growth and water-uptake models to estimate yield based on predicted transpiration values. The relationship is often employed for time steps that are very small compared with the whole season measurements, even though no empirical validation exists for such application. This work tests the hypothesis that linear Y-T relationships are valid throughout the life span of crops under varied natural conditions and levels of environmental stress. Effects of salinity and water supply on growth, water use and yields of tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) were studied for two distinct conditions of potential transpiration. Linear relationships between relative Y and relative ET were found to be consistent throughout the life span of the crops for both growing seasons. Water-use efficiency increased together with plant growth as a result of changes in the plant's surface area to volume ratio. This empirical validation of linear Y-T relationships for short time periods is beneficial in confirming their usefulness in growth and water uptake models.     

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However,large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE)among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm- or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.     

Modelling the predicted geographic and economic response of UK cropping systems to climate change scenarios: the case of potatoes

Geographical changes in suitability in England and Wales for the cultivation of potatoes under a climate change scenario were predicted for the years 2023 and 2065 by integrating a climate database (1951-80) with climate-driven crop growth models. Initially, model outputs were produced as point values (meteorological site locations) of predicted potential yields for current crop production. The model outputs were validated statistically using actual crop yield figures collated from bibliographic analysis. The most suitable model was run again incorporating projected temperature and precipitation changes for 2023 and 2065. These outputs were then used to predict possible economic changes to farm profitability and general market trends. Results indicated that, although yields may rise, gross margins for maincrop and especially early potatoes may also rise due to shifts in production, to a fall in overall potato output and to price increases.     

The Dependence of Net Assimilation Rate on Leaf-area Index

The leaf-area index (leaf area per unit area of land, L) offield crops of kale and sugar-beet was varied experimentallyby removing different fractions of the plant population distributeduniformly through the crop. The net assimilation rate (E) wasdetermined in subsequent periods of 10–14 days. For kale, E decreased nearly linearly with increase of L throughoutthe range from I to 5. E of sugar-beet was less affected bychange in L and was apparently not decreased until L rose aboveabout 3. Because of this dependence of E on L, the rate of dry-matterproduction per unit area of land, or crop growth-rate (C=EL),showed a curved relation to L; for kale it increased to a maximumwhen L was between 3 and 4 and fell again at higher values ofL. Maximal C for sugar-beet occurred beyond the range of L tested,probably between L=6 and L=9. This optimal L for dry-matterproduction by sugar-beet crops probably lies near the upperlimit of the current agricultural range, so there is little,if any, scope for increasing the dry-matter yield by furtherincrease in L. For heavy kale crops L is already far in excessof the optimum, and it may be possible to increase the totaldry-matter yield of kale by repeated thinning or defoliationto hold L near the optimum.     

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm- or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.     

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (?0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm-or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world’s most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.     

Modelling wheat growth and yield losses from late epidemics of foliar diseases using loss of green leaf area per layer and pre-anthesis reserves

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Crop protection strategies, based on preventing quantitative crop losses rather than pest outbreaks, are being developed as a promising way to reduce fungicide use. The Bastiaans' model was applied to winter wheat crops (Triticum aestivum) affected by leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and Septoria tritici blotch (STB; Mycosphaerella graminicola) under a range of crop management conditions. This study examined (a) whether green leaf area per layer accurately accounts for growth loss; and (b) whether from growth loss it is possible to derive yield loss accurately and simply. Methods Over 5 years of field experiments, numerous green leaf area dynamics were analysed during the post-anthesis period on wheat crops using natural aerial epidemics of leaf rust and STB. Key Results When radiation use efficiency (RUE) was derived from bulk green leaf area index (GLAI), RUE(bulk) was hardly accurate and exhibited large variations among diseased wheat crops, thus extending outside the biological range. In contrast, when RUE was derived from GLAI loss per layer, RUE(layer) was a more accurate calculation and fell within the biological range. In one situation out of 13, no significant shift in the RUE(layer) of diseased crops vs. healthy crops was observed. A single linear relationship linked yield to post-anthesis accumulated growth for all treatments. Its slope, not different from 1, suggests that the allocation of post-anthesis photosynthates to grains was not affected by the late occurring diseases under study. The mobilization of pre-anthesis reserves completely accounted for the intercept value. Conclusions The results strongly suggest that a simple model based on green leaf area per layer and pre-anthesis reserves can predict both growth and yield of wheat suffering from late epidemics of foliar diseases over a range of crop practices. It could help in better understanding how crop structure and reserve management contribute to tolerance of wheat genotypes to leaf diseases.     

Salinity imposed stress on principal cereal crops and employing seed priming as a sustainable management approach

Cereal crops specifically maize, wheat, and rice have a prominent role in feeding the world's population. In the context of a growing population and a potential increase in food demand in coming years, yield output of cereals is certainly necessary. Concurrently, the production of these crops is challenged with several abiotic and biotic stresses. Salinity, a leading abiotic stress in global agriculture, significantly reduce growth, yield and overall production of cereals and if not managed through successive efforts, global food security will be uncertain in the future. Thus, employment of sustainable approaches in achieving the targets of food demands of increasing population needs focused attention. Integration of agronomic and biotechnological methods can manage salinity induced drastic effects on crops which would lead to increased crop productivity. In this review, we focus on employing seed priming techniques as possible salt stress management approaches in three major cereal crops (maize, rice, and wheat).     

Integrated Analysis of Growth and Light Interception in Winter Lettuce I. Analytical Methods and Environmental Influences

Measurements on protected lettuce crops have been used to assesstwo new procedures for analysing the rate of dry-matter productionin crops or plant stands. ‘Integrated growth analysis’brings together two traditionally distinct treatments of growthanalysis by resolving crop growth rate (CGR) into stand biomassand the relative growth rate of individual plants. ‘Lightconversion analysis’ resolves CGR as the product of incidentlight receipt, efficiency of light interception by leaves, andefficiency of utilization of intercepted light in dry-matterproduction. Observations from winter lettuce trials were used to fit statisticalprogressions to the primary data and to obtain instantaneously-derivedestimates of all of the analytical components. Trials in threesuccessive years yielded similar patterns in time for the componentsof each of the analytical procedures, giving confidence in theirvalidity. In light conversion analysis, changes in CGR were due mainlyto incident light, which varied threefold, and to interceptingefficiency, which rose from a low initial value to full interceptionat hearting; the efficiency of utilization of light varied lessdramatically, with the value at hearting being about twice thatat planting. In integrated growth analysis a 30 per cent increasein CGR due to CO₂ enrichment, and a 5 per cent increase dueto lower daily minimum temperature, could each be coherentlyresolved into variations in biomass, leaf area ratio and netassimilation rate. In different ways it is concluded that both of these approachescan assist in analysing growth and in identifying the optionsavailable for improving crop yield. Lactuca sativa L., lettuce, growth analysis, crop growth rate, relative growth rate, light interception, light utilization     

Analysis of the benefits to wheat yield from assimilates stored prior to grain filling in a range of environments*

Grain yields of rainfed agriculture in Australia are often low and vary substantially from season to season. Assimilates stored prior to grain filling have been identified as important contributors to grain yield in such environments, but quantifying their benefit has been hampered by inadequate methods and large seasonal variability. APSIM-Nwheat is a crop system simulation model, consisting of modules that incorporate aspects of soil water, nitrogen (N), crop residues, crop growth and development. Model outputs were compared with detailed measurements of N fertilizer experiments on loamy soils at three locations in southern New South Wales, Australia. The field measurements allowed the routine for remobilization of assimilates stored prior to grain filling in the model to be tested for the first time and simulations showed close agreement with observed data. Analysing system components indicated that with increasing yield, both the observed and simulated absolute amount of remobilization generally increased while the relative contribution to grain yield decreased. The simulated relative contribution of assimilates stored prior to grain filling to grain yield also decreased with increasing availability of water after anthesis. The model, linked to long-term historical weather records was used to analyse yield benefits from assimilates stored prior to grain filling under rainfed conditions at a range of locations in the main wheat growing areas of Australia. Simulation results highlighted that in each of these locations assimilates stored prior to grain filling often contributed a significant proportion to grain yield. The simulated contribution of assimilates stored prior to grain filling to grain yield can amount to several tonnes per hectare, however, it varied substantially from 5–90% of grain yield depending on seasonal rainfall amount and distribution, N supply, crop growth and seasonal water use. High N application often reduced the proportion of water available after anthesis and decreased the relative contribution of remobilization to grain yield as long as grain yields increased, particularly on soils with greater water-holding capacity. Increasing the capacity or potential to accumulate pre-grain filling assimilates for later remobilization by 20% increased yields by a maximum of 12% in moderate seasons with terminal droughts, but had little effect in poor or very good seasons in which factors that affect the amount of carbohydrates stored rather than the storage capacity itself appeared to limit grain yield. These factors were, little growth due to water or N deficit in the weeks prior to and shortly after anthesis (when most of the assimilates accumulate for later remobilization), poor sink demand of grains due to low grain number as a result of little pre-anthesis growth or high photosynthetic rate during grain filling. Increasing the potential storage capacity for remobilization is expected to increase grain yield especially under conditions of terminal drought.     

Non-structural carbohydrate partitioning in grass stems: a target to increase yield stability, stress tolerance, and biofuel production

A dramatic change in agricultural crops is needed in order to keep pace with the demands of an increasing human population, exponential need for renewable fuels, and uncertain climatic changes. Grasses make up the vast majority of agricultural commodities. How these grasses capture, transport, and store carbohydrates underpins all aspects of crop productivity. Sink-source dynamics within the plant direct how much, where, and when carbohydrates are allocated, as well as determine the harvestable tissue. Carbohydrate partitioning can limit the yield capacity of these plants, thus offering a potential target for crop improvement. Grasses have the ability to buffer this sink-source interaction by transiently storing carbohydrates in stem tissue when production from the source is greater than whole-plant demand. These reserves improve yield stability in grain crops by providing an alternative source when photosynthetic capacity is reduced during the later phases of grain filling, or during periods of environmental and biotic stresses. Domesticated grasses such as sugarcane and sweet sorghum have undergone selection for high accumulation of stem carbohydrates, which serve as the primary sources of sugars for human and animal consumption, as well as ethanol production for fuel. With the enormous expectations placed on agricultural production in the near future, research into carbohydrate partitioning in grasses is essential for maintaining and increasing yields in grass crops. This review highlights the current knowledge of non-structural carbohydrate dynamics in grass stems and discusses the impacts of stem reserves in essential agronomic grasses.     

Sparing land for nature: exploring the potential impact of changes in agricultural yield on the area needed for crop production

How can rapidly growing food demands be met with least adverse impact on nature? Two very different sorts of suggestions predominate in the literature: wildlife‐friendly farming, whereby on‐farm practices are made as benign to wildlife as possible (at the potential cost of decreasing yields); and land‐sparing, in which farm yields are increased and pressure to convert land for agriculture thereby reduced (at the potential cost of decreasing wildlife populations on farmland). This paper is about one important aspect of the land‐sparing idea – the sensitivity of future requirements for cropland to plausible variation in yield increases, relative to other variables. Focusing on the 23 most energetically important food crops, we use data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to project plausible values for 2050 for population size, diet, yield, and trade, and then look at their effect on the area needed to meet demand for the 23 crops, for the developing and developed worlds in turn. Our calculations suggest that across developing countries, the area under those crops will need to increase very considerably by 2050 (by 23% under intermediate projections), and that plausible variation in average yield has as much bearing on the extent of that expansion as does variation in population size or per capita consumption; future cropland area varies far less under foreseeable variation in the net import of food from the rest of the world. By contrast, cropland area in developed countries is likely to decrease slightly by 2050 (by 4% under intermediate projections for those 23 crops), and will be less sensitive to variation in population growth, diet, yield, or trade. Other contentious aspects of the land‐sparing idea require further scrutiny, but these results confirm its potential significance and suggest that conservationists should be as concerned about future agricultural yields as they are about population growth and rising per capita consumption.     

Feeding the extra billions: strategies to improve crops and enhance future food security

The ability to feed an expanding world population poses one of the greatest challenges to mankind in the future. Accompanying the increased demand for food by the expected nine billion inhabitants of Earth in 2050 will be a continual decrease in arable land area, together with a decline in crop yield due to a variety of stresses. For these formidable challenges to be met, future crops should not only by high-yielding, but also stress-tolerant and disease-resistant. In this review, we highlight the importance of genetic engineering as an indispensable tool to generate just such future crops. We briefly discuss strategies and available tools for biotechnological crop improvement and identify selected examples of candidate genes that may be manipulated so that current biological maxima in yield may be surpassed by comfortable margins. Future prospects and the necessity for basic research aimed at identifying novel target genes are also discussed.     

北方农牧交错区农业生态系统生产力对气候波动的响应——以准格尔旗为例

气候变化对区域生态系统结构和功能有重大影响。以中国北方农牧交错区的准格尔旗为例,利用气象和《统计年鉴》数据,采用数理统计方法分析准格尔旗1961—2009年降水量、平均气温的波动特征,计算出该地区1961—2009年农业生态系统NPP值和主要农作物的气候产量,论述了准格尔旗农业生态系统生产力对气候波动的响应。结果表明:(1)降水量和平均气温的年际、年内波动均显著。(2)准格尔旗农业生态系统生产力呈现阶段性地波动上升趋势。排除社会、科技等影响,气候生产力对气候波动表现出较强的敏感性,是作物气候生态适应的结果。(3)中国北方雨养旱作区,粮食气候产量受降水量年际波动(特别是7、8月)显著影响;谷子、糜黍、玉米、薯类、大豆和油料等农作物的气候产量与降水量年际波动呈显著正相关;谷子、糜黍的气候产量与生长季降水量年内波动呈显著负相关。集水型生态农业是北方农牧交错区生态环境友好的农业发展模式。(4)谷子、糜黍、薯类、大豆和油料等农作物的气候产量与6、7、8月平均气温年际波动呈显著负相关;生长季平均气温年内波动对谷子、糜黍、大豆和油料等农作物的气候产量有显著负面影响。因此,需要综合采取工程、生物和农业措施,将气候变化对主要农作物气候产量的不利影响降到最低。     

Effects of plastic film covers on dry-matter production and early tuber yield in potato crops

Three experiments, conducted in 1988, 1989 and 1990, examined the effects of date of removal of a clear, perforated (200 X 10 mm holes m^-2), plastic film cover on the growth and early yield of potato crops. Results confirmed that the highest early yields were achieved when the cover was removed 2 wk after 50% crop emergence and the resulting yield increase over a non-covered control varied from 6–14 t ha^-1. Later removal reduced the benefit from covering and in some cases eliminated any advantage. Covering increased mean soil and air temperatures 2.9°C and 3.2°C respectively (mean of three experiments), thereadvancing crop emergence between 3 and 5 days. The number of day-degrem accumulated between planting and emergence was very similar in covered and non-covered treatments within a season but varied between seasons from 190°C to 293°C day (> 0°C). Delaying removal resulted in an increased physical restriction to canopy expansion and reduced the capacity of the crop to intercept solar radiation. Total dry-matter yield was determined largely the amount of radiation intercepted crops (R²= 0.98). Plastic covering had relatively little effect on partitioning of dry matter to tubers but reduced tuber dry-matter percentage at early harvests when removal occurred later than 3 wk after crop emergence.     

Effects of Management Practices on Meloidogyne incognita and Snap Bean Yield

Phenamiphos applied at 6.7 kg ai/ha through a solid set or a center pivot irrigation system with 28 mm of water effectively controlled root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne incognita, and resulted in greater snap bean growth and yields irrespective of growing season, tillage method, or cover crop system. The percentage yield increases attributed to this method of M. incognita control over nontreated controls were 45% in the spring crop, and 90% and 409% in the fall crops following winter rye and fallow, respectively. Root galling was not affected by tillage systems or cover crop, but disk tillage resulted in over 50% reduction in bean yield compared with yields from the subsoil-bed tillage system.