Estimating demographic models for the range dynamics of plant species

Aims To better understand how demographic processes shape the range dynamics of woody plants (in this case, Proteaceae), we introduce a likelihood framework for fitting process‐based models of range dynamics to spatial abundance data. Location The fire‐prone Fynbos biome (Cape Floristic Region, South Africa). Methods Our process‐based models have a spatially explicit demographic submodel (describing dispersal, reproduction, mortality and local extinction) as well as an observation submodel (describing imperfect detection of individuals), and are constrained by species‐specific predictions of habitat distribution models and process‐based models for seed dispersal by wind. Free model parameters were varied to find parameter sets with the highest likelihood. After testing this approach with simulated data, we applied it to eight Proteaceae species that differ in breeding system (monoecy versus dioecy) and adult fire survival. We assess the importance of Allee effects and negative density dependence for range dynamics, by using the Akaike information criterion to select between alternative models fitted for the same species. Results The best model for all dioecious study species included Allee effects, whereas this was true for only one of four monoecious species. As expected, sprouters (in which adults survive fire) were estimated to have lower rates of reproduction and catastrophic population extinction than related non‐sprouters. Overcompensatory population dynamics seem important for three of four non‐sprouters. We also found good quantitative agreement between independent data and most estimates of reproduction, carrying capacity and extinction probability. Main conclusions This study shows that process‐based models can quantitatively describe how large‐scale abundance distributions arise from the movement and interaction of individuals. It stresses links between the life history, demography and range dynamics of Proteaceae: dioecious species seem more susceptible to Allee effects which reduce migration ability and increase local extinction risk, and sprouters seem to have high persistence of established populations, but their low reproduction limits habitat colonization and migration.     

Alternative causes for range limits: a metapopulation perspective

All species have limited distributions at broad geographical scales. At local scales, the distribution of many species is influenced by the interplay of the three factors of habitat availability, local extinctions and colonization dynamics. We use the standard Levins metapopulation model to illustrate how gradients in these three factors can generate species' range limits. We suggest that the three routes to range limits have radically different evolutionary implications. Because the Levins model makes simplifying assumptions about the spatial coupling of local populations, we present numerical studies of spatially explicit metapopulation models that complement the analytical model. The three routes to range limits give rise to distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Range limits in one species can also arise because of environmental gradients impinging upon other species. We briefly discuss a predator–prey example, which illustrates indirect routes to range limits in a metacommunity context.     

Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae

Aim

To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change.

Location

South African Cape Floristic Region.

Methods

We use data‐driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species‐specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long‐distance dispersal on top of expected spatio‐temporal dynamics of suitable habitat.

Results

Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography.

Main conclusions

Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data‐driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.

     

Genomic and phenomic analysis of island ant community assembly

Island biodiversity has long fascinated biologists as it typically presents tractable systems for unpicking the eco‐evolutionary processes driving community assembly. In general, two recurring themes are of central theoretical interest. First, immigration, diversification, and extinction typically depend on island geographical properties (e.g., area, isolation, and age). Second, predictable ecological and evolutionary trajectories readily occur after colonization, such as the evolution of adaptive trait syndromes, trends toward specialization, adaptive radiation, and eventual ecological decline. Hypotheses such as the taxon cycle draw on several of these themes to posit particular constraints on colonization and subsequent eco‐evolutionary dynamics. However, it has been challenging to examine these integrated dynamics with traditional methods. Here, we combine phylogenomics, population genomics and phenomics, to unravel community assembly dynamics among Pheidole (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) ants in the isolated Fijian archipelago. We uphold basic island biogeographic predictions that isolated islands accumulate diversity primarily through in situ evolution rather than dispersal, and population genomic support for taxon cycle predictions that endemic species have decreased dispersal ability and demography relative to regionally widespread taxa. However, rather than trending toward island syndromes, ecomorphological diversification in Fiji was intense, filling much of the genus‐level global morphospace. Furthermore, while most endemic species exhibit demographic decline and reduced dispersal, we show that the archipelago is not an evolutionary dead‐end. Rather, several endemic species show signatures of population and range expansion, including a successful colonization to the Cook islands. These results shed light on the processes shaping island biotas and refine our understanding of island biogeographic theory.     

Single-species metapopulation dynamics: concepts, models and observations

This paper outlines a conceptual and theoretical framework for single-species metapopulation dynamics based on the Levins model and its variants. The significance of the following factors to metapopulation dynamics are explored: evolutionary changes in colonization ability; habitat patch size and isolation; compensatory effects between colonization and extinction rates; the effect of immigration on local dynamics (the rescue effect); and heterogeneity among habitat patches. The rescue effect may lead to alternative stable equilibria in metapopulation dynamics. Heterogeneity among habitat patches may give rise to a bimodal equilibrium distribution of the fraction of patches occupied in an assemblage of species (the core-satellite distribution). A new model of incidence functions is described, which allows one to estimate species' colonization and extinction rates on islands colonized from mainland. Four distinct kinds of stochasticity affecting metapopulation dynamics are discussed with examples. The concluding section describes four possible scenarios of metapopulation extinction.     

Measuring the dispersal of saproxylic insects: a key characteristic for their conservation

In the discipline of nature conservation it is important to understand under which circumstances populations can survive by compensating local extinctions with colonizations. Many saproxylic (= wood-dwelling) insect species have declining populations and are regarded as threatened due to low habitat availability in managed forests. Several methods have been used to better understand the dispersal biology and colonization ability of saproxylic insects with declining populations. The present article summarizes and compares the results of such studies. When the same species have been studied using several methods, the results are consistent, but different aspects of dispersal biology are revealed with different methods. Capture-recapture and telemetry are direct methods that can be used to quantify dispersal rate and range in the field. Studies of genetic structure and occupancy patterns are complementary, as they reveal the consequences of dispersals that have taken place over a larger spatial and temporal scale than is possible to study with direct methods. Because colonization, rather than dispersal, is important for population persistence, colonization experiments provide useful information. To obtain information relevant for conservation work, dispersal studies should be conducted on model species that are representative of threatened species. Colonization ability probability differs between common and rare species, and therefore it is important to also study the dispersal of rare species, even if it is more difficult.     

Where am I and why? Synthesizing range biology and the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of dispersal

Although generations of researchers have studied the factors that limit the distributions of species, we still do not seem to understand this phenomenon comprehensively. Traditionally, species’ ranges have been seen as the consequence of abiotic conditions and local adaptation to the environment. However, during the last years it has become more and more evident that biotic factors – such as intra‐ and interspecific interactions or the dispersal capacity of species – and even rapidly occurring evolutionary processes can strongly influence the range of a species and its potential to spread to new habitats. Relevant eco‐evolutionary forces can be found at all hierarchical levels: from landscapes to communities via populations, individuals and genes. We here use the metapopulation concept to develop a framework that allows us to synthesize this broad spectrum of different factors. Since species’ ranges are the result of a dynamic equilibrium of colonization and local extinction events, the importance of dispersal is immediately clear. We highlight the complex interrelations and feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary forces that shape dispersal and result in non‐trivial and partially counter‐intuitive range dynamics. Our concept synthesizes current knowledge on range biology and the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of dispersal. Synthesis What factors are responsible for the dynamics of species' ranges? Answering this question has never been more important than today, in the light of rapid environmental changes. Surprisingly, the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of dispersal – which represent the driving forces behind range formation – have rarely been considered in this context. We here present a framework that closes this gap. Dispersal evolution may be responsible for highly complex and non‐trivial range dynamics. In order to understand these, and possibly provide projections of future range positions, it is crucial to take the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of dispersal into account.     

Dispersal strategies, secondary range expansion and invasion genetics of the nonindigenous round goby, Neogobius melanostomus, in Great Lakes tributaries

Dispersal strategies are important mechanisms underlying the spatial distribution and colonizing ability of all mobile species. In the current study, we use highly polymorphic microsatellite markers to evaluate local dispersal and colonization dynamics of the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), an aquatic invader expanding its range from lake to river environments in its introduced North American range. Genetic structure, genotype assignment and genetic diversity were compared among 1262 round gobies from 20 river and four lake sites in three Great Lakes tributaries. Our results indicate that a combination of short-distance diffusion and long-distance dispersal, collectively referred to as 'stratified dispersal', is facilitating river colonization. Colonization proceeded upstream yearly (approximately 500 m/year; 2005-2009) in one of two temporal replicates while genetic structure was temporally stable. Contiguous dispersal from the lake was observed in all three rivers with a substantial portion of river fish (7.3%) identified as migrants. Genotype assignment indicated a separate introduction occurred upstream of the invasion front in one river. Genetic diversity was similar and relatively high among lake and recently colonized river populations, indicating that founder effects are mitigated through a dual-dispersal strategy. The remarkable success of round goby as an aquatic invader stresses the need for better diffusion models of secondary range expansion for presumably sessile invasive species.     

Two‐species metacommunity dynamics mediated by habitat preference

The Levins model is a simple and widely used metapopulation model that describes temporal changes in the regional abundance of a single species and has increasingly been applied to metacommunity contexts including multiple species. Although a fundamental assumption commonly made when using the model is that species randomly move between habitat patches, most organisms exhibit habitat preference in reality. A method of incorporating habitat preference (directed dispersal) into the Levins metapopulation model was developed in a previous study. In the current study, we extended the approach to explore two‐species metacommunity dynamics (i.e. competition and predation) mediated by habitat preference. Our results theoretically revealed that coexistence of competing metapopulations requires conspecific aggregation and heterospecific segregation whereas the conspecific segregation of prey and effective avoidance of unsuitable prey‐free patches are crucial for persistence of predator metapopulations. In addition, we qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrated the effect of habitat preference on the outcomes of interspecific interactions. The present study opens a new research avenue in metacommunity ecology in complex nature and contributes to improved landscape management for the conservation of species (e.g. territorial and group‐living animals) and biodiversity.     

Seed dispersal and colonization ability of plants — Assessment and implications for conservation

Seed dispersal is one of the least understood phases in plant life-cycles, despite being recognized as fundamentally important for understanding species distribution, abundance, population dynamics and life-history variation. For species living in fragmented habitats, dispersal may be crucial for regional persistence. This paper synthesizes studies performed in Swedish semi-natural grasslands and deciduous forests. The main objective was to develop a simple method to assess the dispersal and colonization ability of plants. Dispersal and colonization were considered as a series of steps: seed production, seed transport and seedling recruitment. With the use of verified assumptions on (i) a trade-off between seed production and seed size, (ii) a relatively small predictive power of seed transport for species actual dispersal and colonization, (iii) a positive effect of seed size on recruitment, and (iv) a general prevalence of recruitment limitations by seed availability, a prediction is made that dispersal and colonization ability will be highest among species with intermediate seed sizes in a given community. This prediction is supported by field data. Based on estimated dispersal and colonization ability, and the ability of local populations to persist, a scheme is suggested with four basic categories of plants. Some implications are suggested for conservation, in a landscape scale, of plants belonging to each of these four categories.     

Shifting dispersal modes at an expanding species’ range margin

While it is generally recognized that noncontiguous (long‐distance) dispersal of small numbers of individuals is important for range expansion over large geographic areas, it is often assumed that colonization on more local scales proceeds by population expansion and diffusion dispersal (larger numbers of individuals colonizing adjacent sites). There are few empirical studies of dispersal modes at the front of expanding ranges, and very little information is available on dispersal dynamics at smaller geographic scales where we expect contiguous (diffusion) dispersal to be prevalent. We used highly polymorphic genetic markers to characterize dispersal modes at a local geographic scale for populations at the edge of the range of a newly invasive grass species (Brachypodium sylvaticum) that is undergoing rapid range expansion in the Pacific Northwest of North America. Comparisons of Bayesian clustering of populations, patterns of genetic diversity, and gametic disequilibrium indicate that new populations are colonized ahead of the invasion front by noncontiguous dispersal from source populations, with admixture occurring as populations age. This pattern of noncontiguous colonization was maintained even at a local scale. Absence of evidence for dispersal among adjacent pioneer sites at the edge of the expanding range of this species suggests that pioneer populations undergo an establishment phase during which they do not contribute emigrants for colonization of neighbouring sites. Our data indicate that dispersal modes change as the invasion matures: initial colonization processes appear to be dominated by noncontiguous dispersal from only a few sources, while contiguous dispersal may play a greater role once populations become established.     

Dispersal, edaphic fidelity and speciation in species-rich Western Australian shrublands: evaluating a neutral model of biodiversity

Over evolutionary time, the number of species in a community reflects the balance between the rate of speciation and the rate of extinction. Over shorter time‐scales local species richness is also affected by how often species move into and out of the local community. These processes are at the heart of Hubbell's ‘unified neutral theory of biodiversity’ ( Hubbell 2001 ). Hubbell's spatially implicit, dispersal‐limited neutral model is the most widely used of the many implementations of neutral theory and it provides an estimate of the rate of speciation in a metacommunity (if metacommunity size is known) and the rate at which species migrate into the local community from the wider metacommunity. Recently, this neutral model has been used to compare rates of speciation and migration in the species‐rich fynbos of South Africa and in neotropical forests. Here we use new analytical methods for estimating the neutral model's parameters to infer speciation and dispersal rates for three sites in species‐rich sclerophyll shrublands (equivalent to fynbos) in Western Australia (WA). Our estimates suggest that WA shrublands are intermediate between fynbos and tropical rainforest in terms of speciation and dispersal. Although a weak test, the model predicts species abundance distributions and species accumulation curves similar to those observed at the three sites. The neutral model's predictions also remain plausible when confronted with independent data describing: (1) known edaphic relationships between sites, (2) estimates of metacommunity species richness and (3) rates of speciation among resprouters and nonsprouters. Two of the site pairs, however, show species turnovers significantly different from those predicted by the spatially implicit form of the neutral model that we use. This suggests that non‐neutral processes, in this case probably edaphic specialisation, are important in the WA shrubland metacommunity. The neutral model predicts similar rates of speciation in resprouter and sprouter taxa, a finding supported by recent molecular phylogenies. Finally, when converted into temporally scaled speciation rates and species longevities, the estimates produced by the neutral model seem implausible. The apparent departure from neutrality in the turnover of species between some sites and the implausible temporal dynamics may be due to the particular model chosen and does not reduce the significance of our other results, which confirm that local dispersal limitation, coupled with broader scale edaphic fidelity, combine to structure this biodiverse metacommunity.     

Local adaptation,dispersal evolution,and the spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics of invasion

Local adaptation and dispersal evolution are key evolutionary processes shaping the invasion dynamics of populations colonizing new environments. Yet their interaction is largely unresolved. Using a single‐species population model along a one‐dimensional environmental gradient, we show how local competition and dispersal jointly shape the eco‐evolutionary dynamics and speed of invasion. From a focal introduction site, the generic pattern predicted by our model features a temporal transition from wave‐like to pulsed invasion. Each regime is driven primarily by local adaptation, while the transition is caused by eco‐evolutionary feedbacks mediated by dispersal. The interaction range and cost of dispersal arise as key factors of the duration and speed of each phase. Our results demonstrate that spatial eco‐evolutionary feedbacks along environmental gradients can drive strong temporal variation in the rate and structure of population spread, and must be considered to better understand and forecast invasion rates and range dynamics.     

Colonization,abundance, and geographic range size of gravestone lichens

Macroecological studies often find that species with large geographic range sizes are also locally abundant. Superior colonization ability of species with large ranges is a possible/plausible explanation for this pattern, yet direct measures of colonization ability are difficult, and thus the relationship between colonization ability and range size is rarely investigated directly. Using a data set of gravestone lichens spanning more than 300 years, we investigated relationships among colonization ability, abundance, and geographic range size. Pairwise correlations were used to compare colonization ability and local abundance with area of occupancy (a measure of range size) and spore size within England, Scotland, and Wales on two different types of gravestones. Indices of colonization ability and abundance were positively correlated with area of occupancy. Colonization ability was significantly positively correlated with local abundance, but it was not at all related to propagule size. When lichen species were grouped categorically by colonization ability, the strongest area-occupancy relationships were observed within the subset of species that were the best colonizers. Significant differences among genera were found in spore size but not for other variables. Lichen species that occupy the largest geographic area were the best colonizers: they were the first species present on newly erected stones. These results complement the more commonly observed macroecological pattern that widespread species are also locally abundant.     

Does colonization contribute to spatial patterns of common invertebrates in coralline algal turf?

Abstract The potential of colonization to contribute to the spatial patterns of six common invertebrates in coralline algal turf was investigated on a rocky shore near Sydney, Australia. The species, which included two amphipods (Elasmopus warra, Hyale spp.), a small bivalve (Lasaea australis), a fly larva (Limonia marina), and two microgastropods (Amphithalamus incidata and Eatoniella atropurpurea), had a range of dispersal modes (larval dispersal, crawling, swimming, rafting, and passive transport). Field sampling between May 1997 and November 1999 demonstrated that the amphipods were more abundant in low‐shore areas, the fly larvae and bivalves were more abundant in mid‐shore areas, and the abundances of gastropods did not vary with tidal height. Furthermore, abundances of all species varied among patches separated by tens of metres at one time or another. To test whether rates of colonization could contribute to established patterns of abundance, habitat mimics were deployed for 2‐week periods. The supply of new individuals matched long‐term patterns of abundance at different tidal heights for E. warra and L. marina. Colonization rates also differed among patches separated by tens of metres for three of the six species. Overall, there was little evidence to suggest that common species in coralline turf are limited by colonization on local scales, regardless of their major mode of dispersal. However, the potential for colonization to determine patterns of abundance varied from species to species.     

Matching habitat choice promotes species persistence under climate change

Species may survive under contemporary climate change by either shifting their range or adapting locally to the warmer conditions. Theoretical and empirical studies recently underlined that dispersal, the central mechanism behind these responses, may depend on the match between an individuals’ phenotype and local environment. Such matching habitat choice is expected to induce an adaptive gene flow, but it now remains to be studied whether this local process could promote species’ responses to climate change. Here, we investigate this by developing an individual‐based model including either random dispersal or temperature‐dependent matching habitat choice. We monitored population composition and distribution through space and time under climate change. Relative to random dispersal, matching habitat choice induced an adaptive gene flow that lessened spatial range loss during climate warming by improving populations’ viability within the range (i.e. limiting range fragmentation) and by facilitating colonization of new habitats at the cold margin. The model even predicted range contraction under random dispersal but range expansion under optimal matching habitat choice. These benefits of matching habitat choice for population persistence mostly resulted from adaptive immigration decision and were greater for populations with larger dispersal distance and higher emigration probability. We also found that environmental stochasticity resulted in suboptimal matching habitat choice, decreasing the benefits of this dispersal mode under climate change. However population persistence was still better under suboptimal matching habitat choice than under random dispersal. Our results highlight the urgent need to implement more realistic mechanisms of dispersal such as matching habitat choice into models predicting the impacts of ongoing climate change on biodiversity.     

Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

Aim To compare theoretical approaches towards estimating risks of plant species loss to anthropogenic climate change impacts in a biodiversity hotspot, and to develop a practical method to detect signs of climate change impacts on natural populations. Location The Fynbos biome of South Africa, within the Cape Floristic Kingdom. Methods Bioclimatic modelling was used to identify environmental limits for vegetation at both biome and species scale. For the biome as a whole, and for 330 species of the endemic family Proteaceae, tolerance limits were determined for five temperature and water availability‐related parameters assumed critical for plant survival. Climate scenarios for 2050 generated by the general circulation models HadCM2 and CSM were interpolated for the region. Geographic Information Systems‐based methods were used to map current and future modelled ranges of the biome and 330 selected species. In the biome‐based approach, predictions of biome areal loss were overlayed with species richness data for the family Proteaceae to estimate extinction risk. In the species‐based approach, predictions of range dislocation (no overlap between current range and future projected range) were used as an indicator of extinction risk. A method of identifying local populations imminently threatened by climate change‐induced mortality is also described. Results A loss of Fynbos biome area of between 51% and 65% is projected by 2050 (depending on the climate scenario used), and roughly 10% of the endemic Proteaceae have ranges restricted to the area lost. Species range projections suggest that a third could suffer complete range dislocation by 2050, and only 5% could retain more than two thirds of their range. Projected changes to individual species ranges could be sufficient to detect climate change impacts within ten years. Main conclusions The biome‐level approach appears to underestimate the risk of species diversity loss from climate change impacts in the Fynbos Biome because many narrow range endemics suffer range dislocation throughout the biome, and not only in areas identified as biome contractions. We suggest that targeted vulnerable species could be monitored both for early warning signs of climate change and as empirical tests of predictions.     

Synchrony's double edge: transient dynamics and the Allee effect in stage structured populations

In populations subject to positive density dependence, individuals can increase their fitness by synchronizing the timing of key life history events. However, phenological synchrony represents a perturbation from a population's stable stage structure and the ensuing transient dynamics create troughs of low abundance that can promote extinction. Using an ecophysiological model of a mass-attacking pest insect, we show that the effect of synchrony on local population persistence depends on population size and adult lifespan. Results are consistent with a strong empirical pattern of increased extinction risk with decreasing initial population size. Mortality factors such as predation on adults can also affect transient dynamics. Throughout the species range, the seasonal niche for persistence increases with the asynchrony of oviposition. Exposure to the Allee effect after establishment may be most likely at northern range limits, where cold winters tend to synchronize spring colonization, suggesting a role for transient dynamics in the determination of species distributions.     

Detecting local diversity‐dependence in diversification

Whether there are ecological limits to species diversification is a hotly debated topic. Molecular phylogenies show slowdowns in lineage accumulation, suggesting that speciation rates decline with increasing diversity. A maximum‐likelihood (ML) method to detect diversity‐dependent (DD) diversification from phylogenetic branching times exists, but it assumes that diversity‐dependence is a global phenomenon and therefore ignores that the underlying species interactions are mostly local, and not all species in the phylogeny co‐occur locally. Here, we explore whether this ML method based on the nonspatial diversity‐dependence model can detect local diversity‐dependence, by applying it to phylogenies, simulated with a spatial stochastic model of local DD speciation, extinction, and dispersal between two local communities. We find that type I errors (falsely detecting diversity‐dependence) are low, and the power to detect diversity‐dependence is high when dispersal rates are not too low. Interestingly, when dispersal is high the power to detect diversity‐dependence is even higher than in the nonspatial model. Moreover, estimates of intrinsic speciation rate, extinction rate, and ecological limit strongly depend on dispersal rate. We conclude that the nonspatial DD approach can be used to detect diversity‐dependence in clades of species that live in not too disconnected areas, but parameter estimates must be interpreted cautiously.