Floquet theory for seasonal environmental forcing of spatially explicit waterborne epidemics

The transmission of waterborne pathogens is a complex process that is heavily linked to the spatial characteristics of the underlying environmental matrix as well as to the temporal variability of the relevant hydroclimatological drivers. In this work, we propose a time-varying, spatially explicit network model for the dynamics of waterborne diseases. Applying Floquet theory, which allows to extend results of local stability analysis to periodic dynamical systems, we find conditions for pathogen invasion and establishment in systems characterized by fluctuating environmental forcing, thus extending to time-varying contexts the generalized reproduction numbers recently obtained for spatially explicit epidemiology of waterborne disease. We show that temporal variability may have multifaceted effects on the invasion threshold, as it can either favor pathogen invasion or make it less likely. Moreover, environmental fluctuations characterized by distinctive geographical signatures can produce diversified, highly nontrivial effects on pathogen invasion. Our study is complemented by numerical simulations, which show that pathogen establishment is neither necessary nor sufficient for large epidemic outbreaks to occur in time-varying environments. Finally, we show that our framework can be used to reliably characterize the early geography of epidemic outbreaks triggered by fluctuating environmental conditions.     

Persistence of plague outbreaks among great gerbils in Kazakhstan: effects of host population dynamics

Outbreaks of plague (Yersinia pestis) among great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) generally require a high host abundance to be initiated. The duration of an outbreak is expected to depend on the subsequent development of this abundance; however, prediction is nontrivial due to the complexity of the gerbil–plague system. The aim of this study was to investigate how the duration of outbreaks depends on different types of host population dynamics generated from: a cyclic model; an autoregressive model giving irregular fluctuations; and a simple model with uncorrelated fluctuations. For each model, outbreak duration was studied under various levels of mean and variability of host abundance. Its focus on the effect of different gerbil dynamics sets this study apart from the few published studies on diseases in dynamic host populations. Plague outbreaks were simulated in a cellular automaton model based on statistical analysis of archived records of plague and host abundance. Temporal autocorrelation was found to make outbreak duration less sensitive to changes in mean abundance than uncorrelated fluctuations. Cyclicity had little effect on the mean duration of outbreaks, but resulted in a multimodal distribution. For all three types of gerbil dynamics, increased variability in gerbil abundance reduced the duration of outbreaks when the mean abundance was high (paralleling results on the risk of species extinction in fluctuating environments), but increased their duration when the mean abundance was lower. Spatial heterogeneity was briefly tested and produced longer outbreaks than the homogenous case. The results are relevant to predicting plague activity in populations of great gerbils.     

On the critical behaviour of simple epidemics.

We show how ideas and models which were originally introduced to gain an understanding of critical phenomena can be used to interpret the dynamics of epidemics of communicable disease in real populations. Specifically, we present an analysis of the dynamics of disease outbreaks for three common communicable infections from a small isolated island population. The strongly fluctuating nature of the temporal incidence of disease is captured by the model, and comparisons between exponents calculated from the data and from simulations are made. A forest-fire model with sparks is used to classify the observed scaling dynamics of the epidemics and provides a unified picture of the epidemiology which conventional epidemiological analysis is unable to reproduce. This study suggests that power-law scaling can emerge in natural systems when they are driven on widely separated time-scales, in accordance with recent analytic renormalization group calculations.     

Dynamics of an outbreak population of Acanthaster planci at Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef (1995–1999)

Despite their significant influence on coral reef ecosystems, causes of population outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci L.) are still poorly understood. Essentially, outbreaks of A. planci could arise from either (1) a single mass recruitment event or (2) the progressive accumulation of starfish from multiple cohorts. This study explored fine-scale variation in the size, distribution, and abundance of A. planci, during an outbreak at Lizard Island in the northern Great Barrier Reef, to assess the mechanism by which the outbreak occurred. Densities of A. planci around Lizard Island increased very gradually from October 1994 until December 1996, then remained at around 1.0 starfish per 200 m² until June 1998. The population of A. planci comprised individuals ranging in size from 11-cm to 62-cm diameter, representing individuals from multiple (at least four) different cohorts. These data suggest that the outbreak of A. planci at Lizard Island resulted from a prolonged build-up in starfish numbers through multiple successive recruitment events. This study shows that outbreaks of A. planci may arise independently of any sudden or substantial increase in rates of recruitment, such that any factor(s) responsible for the initial onset of outbreaks are likely to be very subtle and difficult to detect.     

Genetic Similarity of Island Populations of Tent Caterpillars during Successive Outbreaks

Cyclic or fluctuating populations experience regular periods of low population density. Genetic bottlenecks during these periods could give rise to temporal or spatial genetic differentiation of populations. High levels of movement among increasing populations, however, could ameliorate any differences and could also synchronize the dynamics of geographically separated populations. We use microsatellite markers to investigate the genetic differentiation of four island and one mainland population of western tent caterpillars, Malacosoma californicum pluviale, in two periods of peak or pre-peak density separated by 8 years. Populations showed high levels of genetic variation and little genetic differentiation either temporally between peaks or spatially among sites. Mitochondrial haplotypes were also shared between one island population and one mainland population in the two years studied. An isolation-by-distance analysis showed the F_ST values of the two geographically closest populations to have the highest level of differentiation in both years. We conclude that high levels of dispersal among populations maintain both synchrony of population dynamics and override potential genetic differentiation that might occur during population troughs. As far we are aware, this is the first time that genetic similarity between temporally separated population outbreaks in insects has been investigated. A review of genetic data for both vertebrate and invertebrate species of cyclic animals shows that a lack of spatial genetic differentiation is typical, and may result from high levels of dispersal associated with fluctuating dynamics.     

Inbreeding reduces power-law scaling in the distribution of fluctuating asymmetry: an explanation of the basis of developmental instability

The study of fluctuating asymmetry has been controversial because of conflicting results found in much of the primary literature. It has been suggested that the source of this conflict is the fact that the basis of fluctuating asymmetry is poorly understood and that, as a consequence, methodology of fluctuating asymmetry studies may be flawed. A new model for the phenomenological basis of fluctuating asymmetry, that variation in fluctuating asymmetry is in large part due to the random exponential growth of cell populations (geometric Brownian motion) that are terminated randomly around a genetically programmed development time, is presented here. If termination of development has a genetic component, then scaling effects and kurtosis in the distribution of fluctuating asymmetry should increase with genetic redundancy of the population. This model prediction was tested by comparing the distribution of multivariate size and shape fluctuating asymmetry in large samples collected from both wild populations and four moderately inbred lines of Drosophila simulans. It was found that while wild populations were best described by a lognormal distribution with power-law scaled tails, the inbred lines derived from the wild stock were dramatically normalized (half-normal) in three of four cases. As predicted, the scaling exponent of the upper tail of the distribution of fluctuating asymmetry increased with inbreeding while the kurtosis and mean fluctuating asymmetry decreased with inbreeding. The model suggests an additional explanation of leptokurtosis in fluctuating asymmetry. Kurtosis and scaling of the statistical distribution of fluctuating asymmetry in a population is related directly to genetic differences between individuals and these differences affect their ability to buffer the process of development against random perturbations.     

Fluctuating asymmetry and stress in a medieval Nubian population

Fluctuating asymmetry is commonly used as a bioindicator of developmental stress. This study addresses asymmetry under nutritional/systemic stress in the human craniofacial skeleton and its utility as an indicator of developmental instability. Crania from the diachronic Christian cemeteries at Kulubnarti (Sudanese Nubia) were chosen as a model for nutrition/systemic stress. Previous studies indicate that individuals from the Early Christian cemetery were subjected to greater developmental stress when compared with individuals from the Late Christian cemetery. Therefore, crania from the Early Christian cemetery should display a greater magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry than crania from the Late Christian cemetery. Thirty adult crania of comparable age and sex were selected from each population. Landmark coordinates were digitized in two separate trials and averaged to minimize error. Euclidean distance matrix analysis (EDMA) was used to measure and compare the magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry in each sample. Results indicate that crania from the Early Christian cemetery display greater amounts of fluctuating asymmetry than those from the Late Christian cemetery, as predicted. The degree of fluctuating asymmetry for each linear distance is highly correlated between the cemeteries, suggesting that all humans may share common patterns of fluctuating asymmetry in the skull. In contrast, there is little correlation between magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry and length of linear distance, between-subject variability, or measurement error. These results support the hypothesis that poor nutrition/systemic stress increases developmental instability in the human skull and that increased fluctuating asymmetry constitutes morphological evidence of this stress.     

Ectoparasitism in mothers causes higher positional fluctuating asymmetry in their sons: implications for sexual selection

Random deviations from perfect bilateral symmetry, fluctuating asymmetry, arise from developmental instability. I tested experimentally whether parasitism in female Drosophila nigrospiracula increases fluctuating asymmetry in male offspring. I also developed a novel measure for estimating developmental instability in a meristic trait called positional fluctuating asymmetry, which is based on the difference in the position of thoracic bristles between the right and left sternopleuron. I expected this measure to be a more sensitive indicator of developmental instability than the traditional numerical fluctuating asymmetry, because the latter is based on the difference in the actual presence or absence of bristles. Female flies burdened with hematophagous mites, Macrocheles subbadius (Macrochelidae), produced sons with significantly higher positional fluctuating asymmetry than did females carrying no mites. This effect, which may have resulted from impaired provisioning of oocytes by infested females, was dose dependent and magnified in the progeny of younger (18-20 d) versus older (30-32 d) females. This apparent magnification resulted from a slight but not significant increase in asymmetry of offspring of the older and unparasitized females. In contrast, the same mite loads had no effect on offspring numerical fluctuating asymmetry. If low-positional fluctuating asymmetry males enjoy a mating advantage, then with appropriate genetic variability, sexual selection could drive the evolution of host resistance in host populations. However, variability in neither kind of asymmetry influenced male mating success in nature. Thus, although male positional fluctuating asymmetry is causally associated with parasitism via maternal effects, asymmetry-based sexual selection is unlikely to influence the evolution of mite resistance in D. nigrospiracula. The value of the sensitivity afforded by positional fluctuating asymmetry is discussed in the context of sexual selection and conservation biology.     

Fluctuating asymmetry and sexual selection

Fluctuating asymmetry occurs when an individual is unable to undergo identical development on both sides of a bilaterally symmetrical trait. Fluctuating asymmetry measures the sensitivity of development to a wide array of genetic and environmental stresses. We propose that fluctuating asymmetry is used in many signalling contexts for assessment of an individual's ability to cope with its environment. We hypothesize that fluctuating asymmetry is used in sexual selection, both in fighting and mate choice, and in competition for access to resources. Evidence is reviewed showing that the patterns of fluctuating asymmetry in secondary sexual characters differ from those seen in other morphological traits. Secondary sexual characters show much higher levels of fluctuating asymmetry. Also, there is often a negative relationship between fluctuating asymmetry and the absolute size of ornaments, whereas the relationship is typically U-shaped in other morphological traits. The common negative relationship between fluctuating asymmetry and ornament size suggests that many ornaments reliably reflect individual quality.     

我国甜菜夜蛾间歇性暴发频度的大尺度地理差异及其成因分析

【目的】为探索我国甜菜夜蛾Spodoptera exigua(Hübner)间歇性大暴发频度的大尺度地理差异及其成因,作者研究和分析了我国1956—2008年52年间共发生的121次甜菜夜蛾大暴发频次地理分布的行政区域特征、纬度特征和经度特征。【方法】首先查阅和整理我国历代以来有关甜菜夜蛾记载和研究的文献,并按时间序列方式进行归纳和总结,得出中国1956—2008年52年间共发生甜菜夜蛾大暴发频次为121年次,然后分别按中国省级行政区域、纬度分级区域和经度分级区域进行重新整理分析,在此基础上,进一步细分出中国不同省区及不同经纬度地区甜菜夜蛾有暴发记录的历年总频次数,然后进行统计分析。【结果】分析结果表明:按省级行政区域进行统计,中国有17省(直辖市)有甜菜夜蛾暴发的记录;按暴发频次多少可分为低频暴发区(记录1~4次的共有8省市,即天津1、北京1、海南1、湖南1、云南2、广西3、辽宁3、福建3)、中频暴发区(记录5~9次的共有5省市,即湖北5、安徽7、上海8、江西8、陕西8,占总频次的29.8%)和高频暴发区(记录10次以上的4省市,即山东10、河南13、浙江13、江苏34,占总频次的58%)。按经纬度值进行统计,中国甜菜夜蛾有暴发记录的纬度范围为21.44°~41.97°N,即从中国南部的福建莆田至北部的辽宁抚顺都有甜菜夜蛾暴发的记录,经度范围为107.09°~123.97°E,即从中国西部的陕西关中至东部的辽宁抚顺都有甜菜夜蛾暴发的记录。而暴发最频繁的纬度范围是28°~38°N,约占总频次的89.3%;暴发最频繁的经度范围是113°~121°E,约占总频次的81.8%。【结论】中国甜菜夜蛾间歇性暴发区以华北平原和长江中下游平原地区为主,暴发寄主以蔬菜和棉花为主,暴发季节以7—10月为主。甜菜夜蛾间歇性高频暴发区,其地理特征主要为低海拔地区,即平均海拔低于500 m(也有极少部分发生在平均海拔为1 000~2 000 m之间的盆地);其气候特征主要为暖温带3 400℃≤活动积温≤4 500℃及亚热带地区4 500℃≤活动积温≤8 000℃、湿润(年降水量≥800 mm)及半湿润地区(400≤年降水量≤800 mm)和亚热带及温带季风气候区(该两个气候区的共同特点是夏季高温多雨,冬季低温少雨或寒冷干燥)。     

The seesaw effect of winter temperature change on the recruitment of cotton bollworms Helicoverpa armigera through mismatched phenology

Knowing how climate change affects the population dynamics of insect pests is critical for the future of integrated pest management. Rising winter temperatures from global warming can drive increases in outbreaks of some agricultural pests. In contrast, here we propose an alternative hypothesis that both extremely cold and warm winters can mismatch the timing between the eclosion of overwintering pests and the flowering of key host plants. As host plants normally need higher effective cumulative temperatures for flowering than insects need for eclosion, changes in flowering time will be less dramatic than changes in eclosion time, leading to a mismatch of phenology on either side of the optimal winter temperature. We term this the “seesaw effect.” Using a long‐term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the winter air temperature, the number of winter days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during winter on the demography of the overwintering moth. Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of winter temperature change on overwintering populations. Pest management should therefore consider the indirect effect of changing crop phenology (whether due to greenhouse cultivation or to climate change) on pest outbreaks. As arthropods from mid‐ and high latitudes are actually living in a cooler thermal environment than their physiological optimum in contrast to species from lower latitudes, the effects of rising winter temperatures on the population dynamics of arthropods in the different latitudinal zones should be considered separately. The seesaw effect makes it more difficult to predict the average long‐term population dynamics of insect pests at high latitudes due to the potential sharp changes in annual growth rates from fluctuating minimum winter temperatures.     

Jamaican Symmetry Project: long-term study of fluctuating asymmetry in rural Jamaican children.

Fluctuating asymmetry, small deviations from perfect bilateral symmetry, is negatively correlated with health and positively correlated with sexual selection in human adults, but the accumulation, persistence, and fitness implications of asymmetries during childhood are largely unknown. Here, we introduce the Jamaican Symmetry Project, a long-term study of fluctuating asymmetry and its physical and behavioral correlates in rural Jamaican children. The project is based on an initial sample of 285 children (156 boys and 129 girls), aged 5 to 11 years. We describe the design of the project and the methodology of measuring 10 paired morphometric traits. All traits except hand width showed fluctuating asymmetry. Fluctuating asymmetries of the legs tended to be related and were less than half as great as fluctuating asymmetries of the arms and ears. Therefore the legs may show high developmental stability resulting from selection for mechanical efficiency. A fluctuating asymmetry composite score revealed that boys have significantly lower fluctuating asymmetry than girls and that this effect resides mainly in the elbows. There were significant positive relationships between composite fluctuating asymmetry and age, height, and weight, but multiple regression analyses showed that age was negatively related to fluctuating asymmetry, whereas body size was positively correlated. These findings are compared with results from recent English studies.     

Prevalence of small round structured virus infections in acute gastroenteritis outbreaks in Tokyo

During the three-year period from 1984 to 1987, 506 acute gastroenteritis outbreaks involving 14,383 patients were reported to the Bureau of Public Health, Tokyo Metropolitan Government. Eighty (4,324 patients) of 150 outbreaks (4,860 patients) from which etiologic agents were not identified were subjected to virological investigation. Spherical particles of 28-32 nm in diameter with capsomere-like structures on the surface were detected in patients' stool specimens. Buoyant density of the particles appeared to be 1.36 to 1.40 g/ml in CsCl. Seroconversion to the particles was observed in patients by immune electron microscopy. From these observations, we concluded that the detected particles were members of small round structured virus (SRSV), and that they were implicated in the etiologically ill-defined outbreaks encountered. Prevalence of SRSV infections in these outbreaks was examined by electron microscopy. SRSV was positive in 83.8% of the outbreaks, and 96.4% of the cases. SRSV-positive outbreaks usually occurred during winter in contrast to bacterial outbreaks which often occurred in the summer season. Of 80 outbreaks examined, 53 were associated with the ingestion of oysters, and the remaining 27 mostly with food other than oysters. Oyster-associated outbreaks usually occurred on a small scale, while unassociated ones on diverse scales ranged from family clusters to large outbreaks.     

Onset and spread of an African army worm upsurge

Abstract. 1. Onset and spread of the severe outbreaks of African armyworm, Spodoptera exempta (Walk.), over Ethiopa, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi in late 1984 have been analysed in relation to trap and weather records.
2. Although first outbreaks in each country appeared progressively further south, winds on the best estimated dates of moth concentration and egg laying blew from directions precluding moth movements between them.
3. Such independently developing outbreaks are called 'primary' to distinguish them from any 'secondary' outbreaks that may develop from them.
4. Parent moths giving rise to all seven areas of primary outbreaks were derived from low-density populations that had persisted through the dry season, probably near the coast of East Africa.
5. Primary outbreaks developed on the south-eastern sides of individual rainstorms over the highlands, most likely because windborne moths were concentrated there by convergent winds.
6. Of the secondary outbreaks within Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, most were derived from only one area of primary outbreaks in Kenya, which were therefore critical for effective control of spread; the paucity of other secondaries was presumably due to a lack of timely rainstorms or other concentrating mechanisms.     

The equilibrium concept and density dependence tests What does it all mean?

Summary Tests of density dependent regulation of population size depend on the concept of equilibrium population size. Such an equilibrium is a purely theoretical construct whose existence in the field is debatable and whose value cannot be measured. An equilibrium is supposed to fluctuate in time, but the extent of the fluctuations relative to those of the population size is unknowable. It is impossible to separate a fluctuating population size from a fluctuating equilibrium value and from fluctuating deviations from an equilibrium value. Because it cannot be determined whether a given population size is above, at, or below equilibrium, the course of population size in unpredictable and density dependence tests cannot be expected to produce useful results. Stabilization tests may provide a more useful alternative.     

Spatial synchrony of the two-year cycle budworm outbreaks in central British Columbia, Canada

Outbreaks of forest defoliating insects are usually synchronized over a large spatial scale. Observed records of past outbreaks are usually short and incomplete, therefore long proxy data are useful for better understanding of the spatial synchrony. In this study, we developed tree-ring proxy records of two-year cycle spruce budworm ( Choristoneura biennis Freeman) outbreaks in central British Columbia, Canada, and examined the spatial patterns of past outbreaks. This budworm is a major defoliating insect of the interior spruce ( Picea engelmannii Parry× P. glauca Moench) and subalpine fir ( Abies lasiocarpa [Hook.] Nutt.) forests in the Prince George Region of British Columbia. Four outbreaks occurred in relatively close synchrony over the entire region in the period 1880–1999, however, the initiation year, the intensity and extent of outbreaks varied spatially and from one outbreak to another. In some instances, the occurrence of outbreaks was restricted to only one area. The general synchrony of outbreaks suggested that a large-scale extrinsic factor, such as weather, was at play. However, the imperfect synchrony of outbreaks suggested that local stand characteristics, such as canopy structure, composition of tree species and host plant quality, probably played a major role in preconditioning outbreaks. Dispersal might play a role in synchronizing outbreaks, but the extent to which it contributed to the synchrony was limited in this mountainous region.     

Characterization of Viral Load,Viability and Persistence of Influenza A Virus in Air and on Surfaces of Swine Production Facilities

Indirect transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) in swine is poorly understood and information is lacking on levels of environmental exposure encountered by swine and people during outbreaks of IAV in swine barns. We characterized viral load, viability and persistence of IAV in air and on surfaces during outbreaks in swine barns. IAV was detected in pigs, air and surfaces from five confirmed outbreaks with 48% (47/98) of oral fluid, 38% (32/84) of pen railing and 43% (35/82) of indoor air samples testing positive by IAV RT-PCR. IAV was isolated from air and oral fluids yielding a mixture of subtypes (H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2). Detection of IAV RNA from air was sustained during the outbreaks with maximum levels estimated between 7 and 11 days from reported onset. Our results indicate that during outbreaks of IAV in swine, aerosols and surfaces in barns contain significant levels of IAV potentially representing an exposure hazard to both swine and people.     

Patterns of fluctuating asymmetry in flowers: Implications for sexual selection in plants

Characters in animals used in signalling and subjected to strong directional selection often demonstrate (i) an elevated level of fluctuating asymmetry (small random deviations from bilateral symmetry) and (ii) a negative relationship between the degree of individual fluctuating asymmetry and the size of a given character. We tested these two predictions in plants since flowers are subjected to strong directional selection and are involved in signalling to pollinators, whereas leaves are supposed not to be directly involved in signalling. The overall level of fluctuating asymmetry in a number of plant species with bilaterally or radially symmetric flowers was not generally higher in floral traits than in leaves. The level of fluctuating asymmetry in plants was sometimes significantly consistent within individuals. The absolute degree of individual fluctuating asymmetry in floral traits was generally negatively related to the size of the trait, while there was a positive relationship for leaves. The degree of individual fluctuating asymmetry in floral traits was marginally negatively related to the degree of individual fluctuating asymmetry in leaf traits. These patterns of fluctuating asymmetry in plants suggest that (i) the degree of asymmetry in flowers signals different aspects of quality than does the degree of asymmetry in leaves, and that (ii) fluctuating asymmetry in flowers often reflects the phenotypic quality of individual plants.     

The selection of microbial communities by constant or fluctuating temperatures

Abstract The diversity of bacterial communities isolated from Antarctic lake sediment in chemostats under constant low temperature (8°C) or diurnally fluctuating temperature (1°C to 16°C) was examined. The median optimum temperature for growth of the freshwater bacteria isolated from the fluctuation chemostat was significantly lower ( P < 1%) than that for those from the constant temperature chemostat. The diversity of the enriched bacterial community isolated in the chemostat culture subjected to short-term temperature fluctuations was greater than that enriched under constant temperature. At least 4 different groups of bacteria, that occupied separate 'temperature niches', were isolated from the fluctuating chemostat compared to only one group isolated from the stable chemostat. Furthermore, a pseudomonad from the fluctuating chemostat was shown to out-compete another pseudomonad from the stable chemostat when both were subjected to the fluctuating temperature regime. However, the pseudomonad of constant (8°C) temperature origin out-competed that isolated under fluctuating conditions when subjected to a stable temperature regime.     

The role of larch budmoth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) on forest succession in a larch (Larix decidua Mill.) and Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) stand in the Susa Valley (Piedmont, Italy)

In the Alps, larch (Larix decidua Mill.) is severely affected by larch budmoth (Zeiraphera diniana Guénée) (LBM) attacks. The impact of these outbreaks on the Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) and on the dynamic processes acting in subalpine forest stands are still not well known. Dendroecological methods were used in this study to reconstruct past LBM outbreaks in Susa Valley, Piedmont, Italy. The analysis was carried out on 62 cores from larch and 101 cores from stone pine. The length and severity of each outbreak was quantified for both species and for each tree by means of the programme OUTBREAK. The frequency of the outbreaks was determined using singular spectral analysis and superposed epoch analysis was used to test the significance of the associations between outbreaks and tree-ring growth. In order to verify if trees belonging to different age classes are differently affected by LBM, the reconstructed outbreaks are then classified taking into account the cambial age of the tree at the moment of the outbreak. From 1760 to 1999, 19 outbreaks were recorded in the larch chronologies, while only three outbreaks in the stone pine chronologies. The larch growth is strongly influenced by LBM and the identified outbreaks are equally distributed in all the three age classes. On the stone pine the sporadic occurrence of the identified events made difficult any interpretation of the eventual effect of LBM. Our results lead us to argue that LBM has not played an important role both in determining the stone pine growth rate and in influencing the present observed succession from the stage dominated by larch, to a stage dominated by stone pine or by a mixed stone pine-larch forest.