Comparison of ARIMA and Random Forest time series models for prediction of avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks

Background

Time series models can play an important role in disease prediction. Incidence data can be used to predict the future occurrence of disease events. Developments in modeling approaches provide an opportunity to compare different time series models for predictive power.

Results

We applied ARIMA and Random Forest time series models to incidence data of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in Egypt, available through the online EMPRES-I system. We found that the Random Forest model outperformed the ARIMA model in predictive ability. Furthermore, we found that the Random Forest model is effective for predicting outbreaks of H5N1 in Egypt.

Conclusions

Random Forest time series modeling provides enhanced predictive ability over existing time series models for the prediction of infectious disease outbreaks. This result, along with those showing the concordance between bird and human outbreaks (Rabinowitz et al. 2012), provides a new approach to predicting these dangerous outbreaks in bird populations based on existing, freely available data. Our analysis uncovers the time-series structure of outbreak severity for highly pathogenic avain influenza (H5N1) in Egypt.     

Genome Analysis of Legionella pneumophila Strains Using a Mixed-Genome Microarray

Background

Legionella, the causative agent for Legionnaires’ disease, is ubiquitous in both natural and man-made aquatic environments. The distribution of Legionella genotypes within clinical strains is significantly different from that found in environmental strains. Developing novel genotypic methods that offer the ability to distinguish clinical from environmental strains could help to focus on more relevant (virulent) Legionella species in control efforts. Mixed-genome microarray data can be used to perform a comparative-genome analysis of strain collections, and advanced statistical approaches, such as the Random Forest algorithm are available to process these data.

Methods

Microarray analysis was performed on a collection of 222 Legionella pneumophila strains, which included patient-derived strains from notified cases in the Netherlands in the period 2002–2006 and the environmental strains that were collected during the source investigation for those patients within the Dutch National Legionella Outbreak Detection Programme. The Random Forest algorithm combined with a logistic regression model was used to select predictive markers and to construct a predictive model that could discriminate between strains from different origin: clinical or environmental.

Results

Four genetic markers were selected that correctly predicted 96% of the clinical strains and 66% of the environmental strains collected within the Dutch National Legionella Outbreak Detection Programme.

Conclusions

The Random Forest algorithm is well suited for the development of prediction models that use mixed-genome microarray data to discriminate between Legionella strains from different origin. The identification of these predictive genetic markers could offer the possibility to identify virulence factors within the Legionella genome, which in the future may be implemented in the daily practice of controlling Legionella in the public health environment.     

Accuracy of genomic predictions in Bos indicus (Nellore) cattle

Background

Nellore cattle play an important role in beef production in tropical systems and there is great interest in determining if genomic selection can contribute to accelerate genetic improvement of production and fertility in this breed. We present the first results of the implementation of genomic prediction in a Bos indicus (Nellore) population.

Methods

Influential bulls were genotyped with the Illumina Bovine HD chip in order to assess genomic predictive ability for weight and carcass traits, gestation length, scrotal circumference and two selection indices. 685 samples and 320 238 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used in the analyses. A forward-prediction scheme was adopted to predict the genomic breeding values (DGV). In the training step, the estimated breeding values (EBV) of bulls were deregressed (dEBV) and used as pseudo-phenotypes to estimate marker effects using four methods: genomic BLUP with or without a residual polygenic effect (GBLUP20 and GBLUP0, respectively), a mixture model (Bayes C) and Bayesian LASSO (BLASSO). Empirical accuracies of the resulting genomic predictions were assessed based on the correlation between DGV and dEBV for the testing group.

Results

Accuracies of genomic predictions ranged from 0.17 (navel at weaning) to 0.74 (finishing precocity). Across traits, Bayesian regression models (Bayes C and BLASSO) were more accurate than GBLUP. The average empirical accuracies were 0.39 (GBLUP0), 0.40 (GBLUP20) and 0.44 (Bayes C and BLASSO). Bayes C and BLASSO tended to produce deflated predictions (i.e. slope of the regression of dEBV on DGV greater than 1). Further analyses suggested that higher-than-expected accuracies were observed for traits for which EBV means differed significantly between two breeding subgroups that were identified in a principal component analysis based on genomic relationships.

Conclusions

Bayesian regression models are of interest for future applications of genomic selection in this population, but further improvements are needed to reduce deflation of their predictions. Recurrent updates of the training population would be required to enable accurate prediction of the genetic merit of young animals. The technical feasibility of applying genomic prediction in a Bos indicus (Nellore) population was demonstrated. Further research is needed to permit cost-effective selection decisions using genomic information.     

Deregressed EBV as the response variable yield more reliable genomic predictions than traditional EBV in pure-bred pigs

Background

Genomic selection can be implemented by a multi-step procedure, which requires a response variable and a statistical method. For pure-bred pigs, it was hypothesised that deregressed estimated breeding values (EBV) with the parent average removed as the response variable generate higher reliabilities of genomic breeding values than EBV, and that the normal, thick-tailed and mixture-distribution models yield similar reliabilities.

Methods

Reliabilities of genomic breeding values were estimated with EBV and deregressed EBV as response variables and under the three statistical methods, genomic BLUP, Bayesian Lasso and MIXTURE. The methods were examined by splitting data into a reference data set of 1375 genotyped animals that were performance tested before October 2008, and 536 genotyped validation animals that were performance tested after October 2008. The traits examined were daily gain and feed conversion ratio.

Results

Using deregressed EBV as the response variable yielded 18 to 39% higher reliabilities of the genomic breeding values than using EBV as the response variable. For daily gain, the increase in reliability due to deregression was significant and approximately 35%, whereas for feed conversion ratio it ranged between 18 and 39% and was significant only when MIXTURE was used. Genomic BLUP, Bayesian Lasso and MIXTURE had similar reliabilities.

Conclusions

Deregressed EBV is the preferred response variable, whereas the choice of statistical method is less critical for pure-bred pigs. The increase of 18 to 39% in reliability is worthwhile, since the reliabilities of the genomic breeding values directly affect the returns from genomic selection.     

A Ranking Approach to Genomic Selection

Background

Genomic selection (GS) is a recent selective breeding method which uses predictive models based on whole-genome molecular markers. Until now, existing studies formulated GS as the problem of modeling an individual’s breeding value for a particular trait of interest, i.e., as a regression problem. To assess predictive accuracy of the model, the Pearson correlation between observed and predicted trait values was used.

Contributions

In this paper, we propose to formulate GS as the problem of ranking individuals according to their breeding value. Our proposed framework allows us to employ machine learning methods for ranking which had previously not been considered in the GS literature. To assess ranking accuracy of a model, we introduce a new measure originating from the information retrieval literature called normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG). NDCG rewards more strongly models which assign a high rank to individuals with high breeding value. Therefore, NDCG reflects a prerequisite objective in selective breeding: accurate selection of individuals with high breeding value.

Results

We conducted a comparison of 10 existing regression methods and 3 new ranking methods on 6 datasets, consisting of 4 plant species and 25 traits. Our experimental results suggest that tree-based ensemble methods including McRank, Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Regression Trees achieve excellent ranking accuracy. RKHS regression and RankSVM also achieve good accuracy when used with an RBF kernel. Traditional regression methods such as Bayesian lasso, wBSR and BayesC were found less suitable for ranking. Pearson correlation was found to correlate poorly with NDCG. Our study suggests two important messages. First, ranking methods are a promising research direction in GS. Second, NDCG can be a useful evaluation measure for GS.     

Evidence of Repeated and Independent Saltational Evolution in a Peculiar Genus of Sphinx Moths (Proserpinus: Sphingidae)

Background

Saltational evolution in which a particular lineage undergoes relatively rapid, significant, and unparalleled change as compared with its closest relatives is rarely invoked as an alternative model to the dominant paradigm of gradualistic evolution. Identifying saltational events is an important first-step in assessing the importance of this discontinuous model in generating evolutionary novelty. We offer evidence for three independent instances of saltational evolution in a charismatic moth genus with only eight species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian search criteria offered congruent, well supported phylogenies based on 1,965 base pairs of DNA sequence using the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase subunit I, and the nuclear genes elongation factor-1 alpha and wingless. Using a comparative methods approach, we examined three taxa exhibiting novelty in the form of Batesian mimicry, host plant shift, and dramatic physiological differences in light of the phylogenetic data. All three traits appear to have evolved relatively rapidly and independently in three different species of Proserpinus. Each saltational species exhibits a markedly different and discrete example of discontinuous trait evolution while remaining canalized for other typical traits shared by the rest of the genus. All three saltational taxa show insignificantly different levels of overall genetic change as compared with their congeners, implying that their divergence is targeted to particular traits and not genome-wide.

Conclusions/Significance

Such rapid evolution of novel traits in individual species suggests that the pace of evolution can be quick, dramatic, and isolated—even on the species level. These results may be applicable to other groups in which specific taxa have generated pronounced evolutionary novelty. Genetic mechanisms and methods for assessing such relatively rapid changes are postulated.     

Estimation of (co)variances for genomic regions of flexible sizes: application to complex infectious udder diseases in dairy cattle

Background

Multi-trait genomic models in a Bayesian context can be used to estimate genomic (co)variances, either for a complete genome or for genomic regions (e.g. per chromosome) for the purpose of multi-trait genomic selection or to gain further insight into the genomic architecture of related traits such as mammary disease traits in dairy cattle.

Methods

Data on progeny means of six traits related to mastitis resistance in dairy cattle (general mastitis resistance and five pathogen-specific mastitis resistance traits) were analyzed using a bivariate Bayesian SNP-based genomic model with a common prior distribution for the marker allele substitution effects and estimation of the hyperparameters in this prior distribution from the progeny means data. From the Markov chain Monte Carlo samples of the allele substitution effects, genomic (co)variances were calculated on a whole-genome level, per chromosome, and in regions of 100 SNP on a chromosome.

Results

Genomic proportions of the total variance differed between traits. Genomic correlations were lower than pedigree-based genetic correlations and they were highest between general mastitis and pathogen-specific traits because of the part-whole relationship between these traits. The chromosome-wise genomic proportions of the total variance differed between traits, with some chromosomes explaining higher or lower values than expected in relation to chromosome size. Few chromosomes showed pleiotropic effects and only chromosome 19 had a clear effect on all traits, indicating the presence of QTL with a general effect on mastitis resistance. The region-wise patterns of genomic variances differed between traits. Peaks indicating QTL were identified but were not very distinctive because a common prior for the marker effects was used. There was a clear difference in the region-wise patterns of genomic correlation among combinations of traits, with distinctive peaks indicating the presence of pleiotropic QTL.

Conclusions

The results show that it is possible to estimate, genome-wide and region-wise genomic (co)variances of mastitis resistance traits in dairy cattle using multivariate genomic models.     

Genome-wide QTL analysis of meat quality-related traits in a large F2 intercross between Landrace and Korean native pigs

Background

We conducted a genome-wide linkage analysis to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) that influence meat quality-related traits in a large F₂ intercross between Landrace and Korean native pigs. Thirteen meat quality-related traits of the m. longissimus lumborum et thoracis were measured in more than 830 F₂ progeny. All these animals were genotyped with 173 microsatellite markers located throughout the pig genome, and the GridQTL program based on the least squares regression model was used to perform the QTL analysis.

Results

We identified 23 genome-wide significant QTL in eight chromosome regions (SSC1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, and 16) (SSC for Sus Scrofa) and detected 51 suggestive QTL in the 17 chromosome regions. QTL that affect 10 meat quality traits were detected on SSC12 and were highly significant at the genome-wide level. In particular, the QTL with the largest effect affected crude fat percentage and explained 22.5% of the phenotypic variance (F-ratio = 278.0 under the additive model, nominal P = 5.5 × 10⁻⁵⁵). Interestingly, the QTL on SSC12 that influenced meat quality traits showed an obvious trend for co-localization.

Conclusions

Our results confirm several previously reported QTL. In addition, we identified novel QTL for meat quality traits, which together with the associated positional candidate genes improve the knowledge on the genetic structure that underlies genetic variation for meat quality traits in pigs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12711-014-0080-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Performance of Polygenic Scores for Predicting Phobic Anxiety

Context

Anxiety disorders are common, with a lifetime prevalence of 20% in the U.S., and are responsible for substantial burdens of disability, missed work days and health care utilization. To date, no causal genetic variants have been identified for anxiety, anxiety disorders, or related traits.

Objective

To investigate whether a phobic anxiety symptom score was associated with 3 alternative polygenic risk scores, derived from external genome-wide association studies of anxiety, an internally estimated agnostic polygenic score, or previously identified candidate genes.

Design

Longitudinal follow-up study. Using linear and logistic regression we investigated whether phobic anxiety was associated with polygenic risk scores derived from internal, leave-one out genome-wide association studies, from 31 candidate genes, and from out-of-sample genome-wide association weights previously shown to predict depression and anxiety in another cohort.

Setting and Participants

Study participants (n = 11,127) were individuals from the Nurses'' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study.

Main Outcome Measure

Anxiety symptoms were assessed via the 8-item phobic anxiety scale of the Crown Crisp Index at two time points, from which a continuous phenotype score was derived.

Results

We found no genome-wide significant associations with phobic anxiety. Phobic anxiety was also not associated with a polygenic risk score derived from the genome-wide association study beta weights using liberal p-value thresholds; with a previously published genome-wide polygenic score; or with a candidate gene risk score based on 31 genes previously hypothesized to predict anxiety.

Conclusion

There is a substantial gap between twin-study heritability estimates of anxiety disorders ranging between 20–40% and heritability explained by genome-wide association results. New approaches such as improved genome imputations, application of gene expression and biological pathways information, and incorporating social or environmental modifiers of genetic risks may be necessary to identify significant genetic predictors of anxiety.     

Whole genome association study identifies regions of the bovine genome and biological pathways involved in carcass trait performance in Holstein-Friesian cattle

Background

Four traits related to carcass performance have been identified as economically important in beef production: carcass weight, carcass fat, carcass conformation of progeny and cull cow carcass weight. Although Holstein-Friesian cattle are primarily utilized for milk production, they are also an important source of meat for beef production and export. Because of this, there is great interest in understanding the underlying genomic structure influencing these traits. Several genome-wide association studies have identified regions of the bovine genome associated with growth or carcass traits, however, little is known about the mechanisms or underlying biological pathways involved. This study aims to detect regions of the bovine genome associated with carcass performance traits (employing a panel of 54,001 SNPs) using measures of genetic merit (as predicted transmitting abilities) for 5,705 Irish Holstein-Friesian animals. Candidate genes and biological pathways were then identified for each trait under investigation.

Results

Following adjustment for false discovery (q-value < 0.05), 479 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were associated with at least one of the four carcass traits using a single SNP regression approach. Using a Bayesian approach, 46 QTL were associated (posterior probability > 0.5) with at least one of the four traits. In total, 557 unique bovine genes, which mapped to 426 human orthologs, were within 500kbs of QTL found associated with a trait using the Bayesian approach. Using this information, 24 significantly over-represented pathways were identified across all traits. The most significantly over-represented biological pathway was the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) signaling pathway.

Conclusions

A large number of genomic regions putatively associated with bovine carcass traits were detected using two different statistical approaches. Notably, several significant associations were detected in close proximity to genes with a known role in animal growth such as glucagon and leptin. Several biological pathways, including PPAR signaling, were shown to be involved in various aspects of bovine carcass performance. These core genes and biological processes may form the foundation for further investigation to identify causative mutations involved in each trait. Results reported here support previous findings suggesting conservation of key biological processes involved in growth and metabolism.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2164-15-837) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Recent artificial selection in U.S. Jersey cattle impacts autozygosity levels of specific genomic regions

Background

Genome signatures of artificial selection in U.S. Jersey cattle were identified by examining changes in haplotype homozygosity for a resource population of animals born between 1953 and 2007. Genetic merit of this population changed dramatically during this period for a number of traits, especially milk yield. The intense selection underlying these changes was achieved through extensive use of artificial insemination (AI), which also increased consanguinity of the population to a few superior Jersey bulls. As a result, allele frequencies are shifted for many contemporary animals, and in numerous cases to a homozygous state for specific genomic regions. The goal of this study was to identify those selection signatures that occurred after extensive use of AI since the 1960, using analyses of shared haplotype segments or Runs of Homozygosity. When combined with animal birth year information, signatures of selection associated with economically important traits were identified and compared to results from an extended haplotype homozygosity analysis.

Results

Overall, our results reveal that more recent selection increased autozygosity across the entire genome, but some specific regions increased more than others. A genome-wide scan identified more than 15 regions with a substantial change in autozygosity. Haplotypes found to be associated with increased milk, fat and protein yield in U.S. Jersey cattle also consistently increased in frequency.

Conclusions

The analyses used in this study was able to detect directional selection over the last few decades when individual production records for Jersey animals were available.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-015-1500-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Genome-wide QTL mapping of nine body composition and bone mineral density traits in pigs

Background

Since the pig is one of the most important livestock animals worldwide, mapping loci that are associated with economically important traits and/or traits that influence animal welfare is extremely relevant for efficient future pig breeding. Therefore, the purpose of this study was a genome-wide mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with nine body composition and bone mineral traits: absolute (Fat, Lean) and percentage (FatPC, LeanPC) fat and lean mass, live weight (Weight), soft tissue X-ray attenuation coefficient (R), absolute (BMC) and percentage (BMCPC) bone mineral content and bone mineral density (BMD).

Methods

Data on the nine traits investigated were obtained by Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry for 551 pigs that were between 160 and 200 days old. In addition, all pigs were genotyped using Illumina’s PorcineSNP60 Genotyping BeadChip. Based on these data, a genome-wide combined linkage and linkage disequilibrium analysis was conducted. Thus, we used 44 611 sliding windows that each consisted of 20 adjacent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). For the middle of each sliding window a variance component analysis was carried out using ASReml. The underlying mixed linear model included random QTL and polygenic effects, with fixed effects of sex, housing, season and age.

Results

Using a Bonferroni-corrected genome-wide significance threshold of P < 0.001, significant peaks were identified for all traits except BMCPC. Overall, we identified 72 QTL on 16 chromosomes, of which 24 were significantly associated with one trait only and the remaining with more than one trait. For example, a QTL on chromosome 2 included the highest peak across the genome for four traits (Fat, FatPC, LeanPC and R). The nearby gene, ZNF608, is known to be associated with body mass index in humans and involved in starvation in Drosophila, which makes it an extremely good candidate gene for this QTL.

Conclusions

Our QTL mapping approach identified 72 QTL, some of which confirmed results of previous studies in pigs. However, we also detected significant associations that have not been published before and were able to identify a number of new and promising candidate genes, such as ZNF608.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12711-014-0068-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Bayesian LASSO,Scale Space and Decision Making in Association Genetics

Background

LASSO is a penalized regression method that facilitates model fitting in situations where there are as many, or even more explanatory variables than observations, and only a few variables are relevant in explaining the data. We focus on the Bayesian version of LASSO and consider four problems that need special attention: (i) controlling false positives, (ii) multiple comparisons, (iii) collinearity among explanatory variables, and (iv) the choice of the tuning parameter that controls the amount of shrinkage and the sparsity of the estimates. The particular application considered is association genetics, where LASSO regression can be used to find links between chromosome locations and phenotypic traits in a biological organism. However, the proposed techniques are relevant also in other contexts where LASSO is used for variable selection.

Results

We separate the true associations from false positives using the posterior distribution of the effects (regression coefficients) provided by Bayesian LASSO. We propose to solve the multiple comparisons problem by using simultaneous inference based on the joint posterior distribution of the effects. Bayesian LASSO also tends to distribute an effect among collinear variables, making detection of an association difficult. We propose to solve this problem by considering not only individual effects but also their functionals (i.e. sums and differences). Finally, whereas in Bayesian LASSO the tuning parameter is often regarded as a random variable, we adopt a scale space view and consider a whole range of fixed tuning parameters, instead. The effect estimates and the associated inference are considered for all tuning parameters in the selected range and the results are visualized with color maps that provide useful insights into data and the association problem considered. The methods are illustrated using two sets of artificial data and one real data set, all representing typical settings in association genetics.     

Genome-wide mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci for fatness,fat cell characteristics and fat metabolism in three porcine F2 crosses

Background

QTL affecting fat deposition related performance traits have been considered in several studies and mapped on numerous porcine chromosomes. However, activity of specific enzymes, protein content and cell structure in fat tissue probably depend on a smaller number of genes than traits related to fat content in carcass. Thus, in this work traits related to metabolic and cytological features of back fat tissue and fat related performance traits were investigated in a genome-wide QTL analysis. QTL similarities and differences were examined between three F₂ crosses, and between male and female animals.

Methods

A total of 966 F₂ animals originating from crosses between Meishan (M), Pietrain (P) and European wild boar (W) were analysed for traits related to fat performance (11), enzymatic activity (9) and number and volume of fat cells (20). Per cross, 216 (M × P), 169 (W × P) and 195 (W × M) genome-wide distributed marker loci were genotyped. QTL mapping was performed separately for each cross in steps of 1 cM and steps were reduced when the distance between loci was shorter. The additive and dominant components of QTL positions were detected stepwise by using a multiple position model.

Results

A total of 147 genome-wide significant QTL (76 at P < 0.05 and 71 at P < 0.01) were detected for the three crosses. Most of the QTL were identified on SSC1 (between 76-78 and 87-90 cM), SSC7 (predominantly in the MHC region) and SSCX (in the vicinity of the gene CAPN6). Additional genome-wide significant QTL were found on SSC8, 12, 13, 14, 16, and 18. In many cases, the QTL are mainly additive and differ between F₂ crosses. Many of the QTL profiles possess multiple peaks especially in regions with a high marker density. Sex specific analyses, performed for example on SSC6, SSC7 and SSCX, show that for some traits the positions differ between male and female animals. For the selected traits, the additive and dominant components that were analysed for QTL positions on different chromosomes, explain in combination up to 23% of the total trait variance.

Conclusions

Our results reveal specific and partly new QTL positions across genetically diverse pig crosses. For some of the traits associated with specific enzymes, protein content and cell structure in fat tissue, it is the first time that they are included in a QTL analysis. They provide large-scale information to analyse causative genes and useful data for the pig industry.     

Reduction in accuracy of genomic prediction for ordered categorical data compared to continuous observations

Background

Accuracy of genomic prediction depends on number of records in the training population, heritability, effective population size, genetic architecture, and relatedness of training and validation populations. Many traits have ordered categories including reproductive performance and susceptibility or resistance to disease. Categorical scores are often recorded because they are easier to obtain than continuous observations. Bayesian linear regression has been extended to the threshold model for genomic prediction. The objective of this study was to quantify reductions in accuracy for ordinal categorical traits relative to continuous traits.

Methods

Efficiency of genomic prediction was evaluated for heritabilities of 0.10, 0.25 or 0.50. Phenotypes were simulated for 2250 purebred animals using 50 QTL selected from actual 50k SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) genotypes giving a proportion of causal to total loci of.0001. A Bayes C π threshold model simultaneously fitted all 50k markers except those that represented QTL. Estimated SNP effects were utilized to predict genomic breeding values in purebred (n = 239) or multibreed (n = 924) validation populations. Correlations between true and predicted genomic merit in validation populations were used to assess predictive ability.

Results

Accuracies of genomic estimated breeding values ranged from 0.12 to 0.66 for purebred and from 0.04 to 0.53 for multibreed validation populations based on Bayes C π linear model analysis of the simulated underlying variable. Accuracies for ordinal categorical scores analyzed by the Bayes C π threshold model were 20% to 50% lower and ranged from 0.04 to 0.55 for purebred and from 0.01 to 0.44 for multibreed validation populations. Analysis of ordinal categorical scores using a linear model resulted in further reductions in accuracy.

Conclusions

Threshold traits result in markedly lower accuracy than a linear model on the underlying variable. To achieve an accuracy equal or greater than for continuous phenotypes with a training population of 1000 animals, a 2.25 fold increase in training population size was required for categorical scores fitted with the threshold model. The threshold model resulted in higher accuracies than the linear model and its advantage was greatest when training populations were smallest.     

Bayesian classification and regression trees for predicting incidence of cryptosporidiosis

Background

Classification and regression tree (CART) models are tree-based exploratory data analysis methods which have been shown to be very useful in identifying and estimating complex hierarchical relationships in ecological and medical contexts. In this paper, a Bayesian CART model is described and applied to the problem of modelling the cryptosporidiosis infection in Queensland, Australia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compared the results of a Bayesian CART model with those obtained using a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Overall, the analyses indicated that the nature and magnitude of the effect estimates were similar for the two methods in this study, but the CART model more easily accommodated higher order interaction effects.

Conclusions/Significance

A Bayesian CART model for identification and estimation of the spatial distribution of disease risk is useful in monitoring and assessment of infectious diseases prevention and control.     

Prediction of in situ root decomposition rates in an interspecific context from chemical and morphological traits

Background and Aims

We quantitatively relate in situ root decomposition rates of a wide range of trees and herbs used in agroforestry to root chemical and morphological traits in order to better describe carbon fluxes from roots to the soil carbon pool across a diverse group of plant species.

Methods

In situ root decomposition rates were measured over an entire year by an intact core method on ten tree and seven herb species typical of agroforestry systems and were quantified using decay constants (k values) from Olson''s single exponential model. Decay constants were related to root chemical (total carbon, nitrogen, soluble carbon, cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin) and morphological (specific root length, specific root length) traits. Traits were measured for both absorbing and non-absorbing roots.

Key Results

From 61 to 77 % of the variation in the different root traits and 63 % of that in root decomposition rates was interspecific. N was positively correlated, but total carbon and lignin were negatively correlated with k values. Initial root traits accounted for 75 % of the variation in interspecific decomposition rates using partial least squares regressions; partial slopes attributed to each trait were consistent with functional ecology expectations.

Conclusions

Easily measured initial root traits can be used to predict rates of root decomposition in soils in an interspecific context.     

Genome-wide eQTLs and heritability for gene expression traits in unrelated individuals

Background

While the possible sources underlying the so-called ‘missing heritability’ evident in current genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of complex traits have been actively pursued in recent years, resolving this mystery remains a challenging task. Studying heritability of genome-wide gene expression traits can shed light on the goal of understanding the relationship between phenotype and genotype. Here we used microarray gene expression measurements of lymphoblastoid cell lines and genome-wide SNP genotype data from 210 HapMap individuals to examine the heritability of gene expression traits.

Results

Heritability levels for expression of 10,720 genes were estimated by applying variance component model analyses and 1,043 expression quantitative loci (eQTLs) were detected. Our results indicate that gene expression traits display a bimodal distribution of heritability, one peak close to 0% and the other summit approaching 100%. Such a pattern of the within-population variability of gene expression heritability is common among different HapMap populations of unrelated individuals but different from that obtained in the CEU and YRI trio samples. Higher heritability levels are shown by housekeeping genes and genes associated with cis eQTLs. Both cis and trans eQTLs make comparable cumulative contributions to the heritability. Finally, we modelled gene-gene interactions (epistasis) for genes with multiple eQTLs and revealed that epistasis was not prevailing in all genes but made a substantial contribution in explaining total heritability for some genes analysed.

Conclusions

We utilised a mixed effect model analysis for estimating genetic components from population based samples. On basis of analyses of genome-wide gene expression from four HapMap populations, we demonstrated detailed exploitation of the distribution of genetic heritabilities for expression traits from different populations, and highlighted the importance of studying interaction at the gene expression level as an important source of variation underlying missing heritability.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2164-15-13) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.