Regional Changes in Charcoal-Burning Suicide Rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: A Time Trend Analysis

Background

Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i) time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995–2011 and (ii) whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries.

Methods and Findings

We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996–2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%), but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997–1999), followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998–2001), Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999–2001), Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999–2003), and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006–2008). No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females), but not in Japan (for males), the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did not differ by sex/age group in Taiwan and Hong Kong but appeared to be greatest in people aged 15–24 y in Japan and people aged 25–64 y in the Republic of Korea. The lack of specific codes for charcoal-burning suicide in the International Classification of Diseases and variations in coding practice in different countries are potential limitations of this study.

Conclusions

Charcoal-burning suicides increased markedly in some East/Southeast Asian countries (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore) in the first decade of the 21st century, but such rises were not experienced by all countries in the region. In countries with a rise in charcoal-burning suicide rates, the timing, scale, and sex/age pattern of increases varied by country. Factors underlying these variations require further investigation, but may include differences in culture or in media portrayals of the method. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity in High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer: A Phylogenetic Analysis

Background

The major clinical challenge in the treatment of high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is the development of progressive resistance to platinum-based chemotherapy. The objective of this study was to determine whether intra-tumour genetic heterogeneity resulting from clonal evolution and the emergence of subclonal tumour populations in HGSOC was associated with the development of resistant disease.

Methods and Findings

Evolutionary inference and phylogenetic quantification of heterogeneity was performed using the MEDICC algorithm on high-resolution whole genome copy number profiles and selected genome-wide sequencing of 135 spatially and temporally separated samples from 14 patients with HGSOC who received platinum-based chemotherapy. Samples were obtained from the clinical CTCR-OV03/04 studies, and patients were enrolled between 20 July 2007 and 22 October 2009. Median follow-up of the cohort was 31 mo (interquartile range 22–46 mo), censored after 26 October 2013. Outcome measures were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). There were marked differences in the degree of clonal expansion (CE) between patients (median 0.74, interquartile range 0.66–1.15), and dichotimization by median CE showed worse survival in CE-high cases (PFS 12.7 versus 10.1 mo, p = 0.009; OS 42.6 versus 23.5 mo, p = 0.003). Bootstrap analysis with resampling showed that the 95% confidence intervals for the hazard ratios for PFS and OS in the CE-high group were greater than 1.0. These data support a relationship between heterogeneity and survival but do not precisely determine its effect size. Relapsed tissue was available for two patients in the CE-high group, and phylogenetic analysis showed that the prevalent clonal population at clinical recurrence arose from early divergence events. A subclonal population marked by a NF1 deletion showed a progressive increase in tumour allele fraction during chemotherapy.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that quantitative measures of intra-tumour heterogeneity may have predictive value for survival after chemotherapy treatment in HGSOC. Subclonal tumour populations are present in pre-treatment biopsies in HGSOC and can undergo expansion during chemotherapy, causing clinical relapse.     

The Evolution of Plasticity and Nonplastic Spatial and Temporal Adaptations in the Presence of Imperfect Environmental Cues

A model for the evolution of plasticity is considered in which the phenotype, undergoing stabilizing selection, is modeled as a linear function of an environmental cue correlated with the phenotypic optimum, with the coefficients z(0) and z(1) evolving according to standard quantitative genetic theory. In contrast to previous theoretical models, as the rate of migration between demes or the rate of cyclic fluctuations in the optimum increases, the amount of plasticity z&d1;1 at equilibrium is shown to increase gradually, in part accounting for the effect of reduced nonplastic adaptation and reaching a maximum equal to the squared correlation between the environmental cue and the phenotypic optimum. Given that information available to the organism is limited, this bias of the expressed phenotype toward the global optimum is still optimal, however, in a certain decision-theoretic sense. When genetic variation in the plastic component of the trait is small so that spatial or temporal differentiation in plasticity is small, the effect of plasticity on nonplastic adaptation is to reduce the effects of variation in the phenotypic optimum by a factor 1-z&d1;1 only. Information acquisition costs and joint evolution of sensory systems are discussed.     

SciClone: Inferring Clonal Architecture and Tracking the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Tumor Evolution

The sensitivity of massively-parallel sequencing has confirmed that most cancers are oligoclonal, with subpopulations of neoplastic cells harboring distinct mutations. A fine resolution view of this clonal architecture provides insight into tumor heterogeneity, evolution, and treatment response, all of which may have clinical implications. Single tumor analysis already contributes to understanding these phenomena. However, cryptic subclones are frequently revealed by additional patient samples (e.g., collected at relapse or following treatment), indicating that accurately characterizing a tumor requires analyzing multiple samples from the same patient. To address this need, we present SciClone, a computational method that identifies the number and genetic composition of subclones by analyzing the variant allele frequencies of somatic mutations. We use it to detect subclones in acute myeloid leukemia and breast cancer samples that, though present at disease onset, are not evident from a single primary tumor sample. By doing so, we can track tumor evolution and identify the spatial origins of cells resisting therapy.     

The Spatial Resolution of Epidemic Peaks

The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city); population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods). Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.     

Role of Spatial and Temporal Refuges in the Evolution of Pest Resistance to Toxic Crops

Toxic plants have been used for years in agriculture to control major crop pests. However, the continuous exposure of targeted pests to toxins dramatically increases the rate of resistance evolution (Gassman et al. in Annu Rev Entomol 54:147–163, 2009a; Tabashnik et al. Nat Biotechnol 26:199–202, 2008). To prevent or delay resistance, non toxic host plants can be used as refuges. Our study considers spatial and temporal refuges that are respectively implemented concurrently or alternatively a toxic crop. A conceptual model based on impulsive differential equations is proposed to describe the dynamics of the susceptible and resistant pest populations over time. The mathematical study enlightens threshold values of the proportion of the spatial refuge and key parameters that should help to understand evolution of pest resistance to toxic crop.     

The Evolution of Mass Cell Suicide in Bacterial Warfare

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Spatial and Temporal Simulation of Human Evolution. Methods,Frameworks and Applications

Analyses of human evolution are fundamental to understand the current gradients of human diversity. In this concern, genetic samples collected from current populations together with archaeological data are the most important resources to study human evolution. However, they are often insufficient to properly evaluate a variety of evolutionary scenarios, leading to continuous debates and discussions. A commonly applied strategy consists of the use of computer simulations based on, as realistic as possible, evolutionary models, to evaluate alternative evolutionary scenarios through statistical correlations with the real data. Computer simulations can also be applied to estimate evolutionary parameters or to study the role of each parameter on the evolutionary process. Here we review the mainly used methods and evolutionary frameworks to perform realistic spatially explicit computer simulations of human evolution. Although we focus on human evolution, most of the methods and software we describe can also be used to study other species. We also describe the importance of considering spatially explicit models to better mimic human evolutionary scenarios based on a variety of phenomena such as range expansions, range shifts, range contractions, sex-biased dispersal, long-distance dispersal or admixtures of populations. We finally discuss future implementations to improve current spatially explicit simulations and their derived applications in human evolution.     

Quantitative Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Fluorescein Angiography Dynamics in the Eye

Purpose

We describe a novel approach to analyze fluorescein angiography to investigate fluorescein flow dynamics in the rat posterior retina as well as identify abnormal areas following laser photocoagulation.

Methods

Experiments were undertaken in adult Long Evans rats. Using a rodent retinal camera, videos were acquired at 30 frames per second for 30 seconds following intravenous introduction of sodium fluorescein in a group of control animals (n = 14). Videos were image registered and analyzed using principle components analysis across all pixels in the field. This returns fluorescence intensity profiles from which, the half-rise (time to 50% brightness), half-fall (time for 50% decay) back to an offset (plateau level of fluorescence). We applied this analysis to video fluorescein angiography data collected 30 minutes following laser photocoagulation in a separate group of rats (n = 7).

Results

Pixel-by-pixel analysis of video angiography clearly delineates differences in the temporal profiles of arteries, veins and capillaries in the posterior retina. We find no difference in half-rise, half-fall or offset amongst the four quadrants (inferior, nasal, superior, temporal). We also found little difference with eccentricity. By expressing the parameters at each pixel as a function of the number of standard deviation from the average of the entire field, we could clearly identify the spatial extent of the laser injury.

Conclusions

This simple registration and analysis provides a way to monitor the size of vascular injury, to highlight areas of subtle vascular leakage and to quantify vascular dynamics not possible using current fluorescein angiography approaches. This can be applied in both laboratory and clinical settings for in vivo dynamic fluorescent imaging of vasculature.     

Spatial and Temporal Gene Expression Differences in Core and Periinfarct Areas in Experimental Stroke: A Microarray Analysis

Background

A large number of genes are regulated to promote brain repair following stroke. The thorough analysis of this process can help identify new markers and develop therapeutic strategies. This study analyzes gene expression following experimental stroke.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A microarray study of gene expression in the core, periinfarct and contralateral cortex was performed in adult Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 60) after 24 hours (acute phase) or 3 days (delayed stage) of permanent middle cerebral artery (MCA) occlusion. Independent qRT-PCR validation (n = 12) was performed for 22 of the genes. Functional data were evaluated by Ingenuity Pathway Analysis. The number of genes differentially expressed was 2,612 (24 h) and 5,717 (3 d) in the core; and 3,505 (24 h) and 1,686 (3 d) in the periinfarct area (logFC>|1|; adjP<0.05). Expression of many neurovascular unit development genes was altered at 24 h and 3 d including HES2, OLIG2, LINGO1 and NOGO-A; chemokines like CXCL1 and CXCL12, stress-response genes like HIF-1A, and trophic factors like BDNF or BMP4. Nearly half of the detected genes (43%) had not been associated with stroke previously.

Conclusions

This comprehensive study of gene regulation in the core and periinfarct areas at different times following permanent MCA occlusion provides new data that can be helpful in translational research.     

The Impact of Media Reporting on the Emergence of Charcoal Burning Suicide in Taiwan

We investigated the association of the intensity of newspaper reporting of charcoal burning suicide with the incidence of such deaths in Taiwan during 1998–2002. A counting process approach was used to estimate the incidence of suicides and intensity of news reporting. Conditional Poisson generalized linear autoregressive models were performed to assess the association of the intensity of newspaper reporting of charcoal burning and non-charcoal burning suicides with the actual number of charcoal burning and non-charcoal burning suicides the following day. We found that increases in the reporting of charcoal burning suicide were associated with increases in the incidence of charcoal burning suicide on the following day, with each reported charcoal burning news item being associated with a 16% increase in next day charcoal burning suicide (p<.0001). However, the reporting of other methods of suicide was not related to their incidence. We conclude that extensive media reporting of charcoal burning suicides appears to have contributed to the rapid rise in the incidence of the novel method in Taiwan during the initial stage of the suicide epidemic. Regulating media reporting of novel suicide methods may prevent an epidemic spread of such new methods.     

景观生态学的核心:生态学系统的时空异质性

1　景观生态学与景观异质性景观生态学是研究在一个相当大的区域内 ,由许多不同生态系统所组成的整体 (即景观 )的空间结构、相互作用、协调功能以及动态变化的生态学新分支[1 ] 。它的出现促进了空间关系模型和理论、空间格局与动态的数据类型的获取以及经典生态学很少涉及的空间尺度检测等方面的发展[2 ] 。Ｒｉｓｓｅｒ等认为景观生态学研究就是异质性的研究[3] 。其实 ,“景观”本身就具有“变化的异质性整体”的含义[4] 。景观生态学集中关注于对生态系统空间关系的研究 ,它把景观视为空间上镶嵌出现和紧密联系的生态系统组合 ,景观可…     

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Contact Rates in Female White-Tailed Deer

Abstract: White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are important game mammals and potential reservoirs of diseases of domestic livestock; thus, diseases of deer are of great concern to wildlife managers. Contact, either direct or indirect, is necessary for disease transmission, but we know little about the ecological contexts that promote intrasexual contact among deer. Using pair-wise direct contacts estimated from Global Positioning System collar locations and joint utilization distributions (JUDs), we assessed habitats in which contacts occur to test whether direct contact rates among female white-tailed deer in different social groups differs among land-cover types. We also tested whether contact rates differed among seasons, lunar phases, and times of day. We obtained locations from 27 female deer for periods of 0.5–17 months during 2002–2006. We designated any simultaneous pair of locations for 2 deer <25 m apart as a direct contact. For each season, we used compositional analysis to compare land-cover types where 2 deer had contact to available land-cover weighted by their JUD. We used mixed-model logistic regression to test for effects of season, lunar phase, and time of day on contact rates. Contact rates during the gestation season were greater than expected from random use in forest and grassland cover, whereas contact rates during the fawning period were greater in agricultural fields than in other land-cover types. Contact rates were greatest during the rut and lowest in summer. Diel patterns of contact rates varied with season, and contact rates were elevated during full moon compared to other lunar periods. Both spatial and temporal analyses suggest that contact between female deer in different social groups occurs mainly during feeding, which highlights the potential impact of food distribution and habitat on contact rates among deer. By using methods to associate contacts and land-cover, we have created beneficial tools for more elaborate and detailed studies of disease transmission. Our methods can offer information necessary to develop spatially realistic models of disease transmission in deer.     

Temporal Percolation of the Susceptible Network in an Epidemic Spreading

In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental approach and percolation tools, we find that a time-dependent quantity , namely, the probability that a given neighbor of a node is susceptible at time , is the control parameter of a node void percolation process involving those nodes on the network not-reached by the disease. We show that there exists a critical time above which the giant susceptible component is destroyed. As a consequence, in order to preserve a macroscopic connected fraction of the network composed by healthy individuals which guarantee its functionality, any mitigation strategy should be implemented before this critical time . Our theoretical results are confirmed by extensive simulations of the SIR process.     

Temporal and Spatial Order in the Central Plains

Abstract

The major archeological complexes of the Central Plains can be arranged according to the Willey and Phillips system, thus recognizing not only content but time and space diemnsions.     

动物生境选择研究中的时空尺度

尺度研究已成为生态学上的一个重要概念和研究热点,但是在动物生境选择的研究中尚未引起足够的重视。动物的生境选择包括多层次的判别和一系列等级序位,在各个尺度和水平上具有不同的特征和机制,受到时空尺度的严格限定。繁殖期的时间限制、社群压力、环境变化、动物生理需求的变化决定了动物生境选择的时间制约性;而生境资源的斑块化分布、功能生境之间的相互作用决定了动物生境选择的空间制约性。研究者对时间和空间尺度的选取与应用会直接影响到生境选择研究结果的科学性和实效性。本文从动物生境选择的时空制约性出发,分析了生境选择研究中时间尺度的重要性,叙述了国内外生境选择研究中常见的研究尺度,强调了多尺度研究和长期生态研究的必要性,尺度的选择应该成为生境选择研究的起点和基础。     

Assessing the Efficacy of Restricting Access to Barbecue Charcoal for Suicide Prevention in Taiwan: A Community-Based Intervention Trial

Objective

Charcoal-burning suicide has recently been spreading to many Asian countries. There have also been several cases involving this new method of suicide in Western countries. Restricting access to suicide means is one of the few suicide-prevention measures that have been supported by empirical evidence. The current study aims to assess the effectiveness of a community intervention program that restricts access to charcoal to prevent suicide in Taiwan.

Methods and Findings

A quasi-experimental design is used to compare method-specific (charcoal-burning suicide, non-charcoal-burning suicide) and overall suicide rates in New Taipei City (the intervention site, with a population of 3.9 million) with two other cities (Taipei City and Kaohsiung City, the control sites, each with 2.7 million residents) before (Jan 1^st 2009- April 30^th 2012) and after (May 1^st 2012-Dec. 31^st 2013) the initiation of a charcoal-restriction program on May 1^st 2012. The program mandates the removal of barbecue charcoal from open shelves to locked storage in major retail stores in New Taipei City. No such restriction measure was implemented in the two control sites. Generalized linear regression models incorporating secular trends were used to compare the changes in method-specific and overall suicide rates before and after the initiation of the restriction measure. A simulation approach was used to estimate the number of lives saved by the intervention. Compared with the pre-intervention period, the estimated rate reduction of charcoal-burning suicide in New Taipei City was 37% (95% CI: 17%, 50%) after the intervention. Taking secular trends into account, the reduction was 30% (95% CI: 14%, 44%). No compensatory rise in non-charcoal-burning suicide was observed in New Taipei City. No significant reduction in charcoal-burning suicide was observed in the other two control sites. The simulation approach estimated that 91 (95%CI [55, 128]) lives in New Taipei City were saved during the 20 months of the intervention.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate that the charcoal-restriction program reduced method-specific and overall suicides. This study provides strong empirical evidence that restricting the accessibility of common lethal methods of suicide can effectively reduce suicide rates.     

Temporal and Spatial Variability in the Distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay: A Hindcast Study

Vibrio vulnificus, an estuarine bacterium, is the causative agent of seafood-related gastroenteritis, primary septicemia, and wound infections worldwide. It occurs as part of the normal microflora of coastal marine environments and can be isolated from water, sediment, and oysters. Hindcast prediction was undertaken to determine spatial and temporal variability in the likelihood of occurrence of V. vulnificus in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Hindcast predictions were achieved by forcing a multivariate habitat suitability model with simulated sea surface temperature and salinity in the Bay for the period between 1991 and 2005 and the potential hotspots of occurrence of V. vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay were identified. The likelihood of occurrence of V. vulnificus during high and low rainfall years was analyzed. From results of the study, it is concluded that hindcast prediction yields an improved understanding of environmental conditions associated with occurrence of V. vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay.     

The Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Paramecium bursaria in the Littoral Zone1

The spatial and seasonal distribution of Paramecium bursaria in two small Indiana ponds was studied using a sampling grid. Very small (5.0 ml) samples were taken so that the individual microhabitats could be studied. The results were evaluated in comparison to the data collected for the P. aurelia complex collected in the same manner and at the same sites. It was found that P. bursaria exist in a clumped distribution, but that the distribution was not very different from random. Paramecium bursaria also exist at the surface and at the mud-water interface. Temperature does not seem to play a statistically significant role in determining population size. The breeding system of P. bursaria is optimized for an outbreeding population of low density. In comparison, the species of the P. aurelia complex exist in a very clumped distribution, are found only at the mud-water interface, and are inbreeders. The evolutionary strategies of the two types of paramecia are discussed.