How phenotypic matching based on neutral mating cues enables speciation in locally adapted populations

Maynard Smith's (American Naturalist, 1966, 100, 637) suggestion that in some cases a prerequisite for speciation is the existence of local ecological adaptations has not received much attention to date. Here, we test the hypothesis using a model like that of Maynard Smith but differing in the way animals disperse between niches. In previous studies, males disperse randomly between niches but females stay put in their natal niche. As a first step toward generalizing the model, we here analyze the case that equal proportions of the two sexes disperse between niches before breeding. Supporting Maynard Smith's (1966) hypothesis, we find that once local adaptations are established, a neutral mating cue at an independent locus can rapidly enable speciation in populations with a suitable mechanism for phenotype matching. We find that stable ecological polymorphisms are relatively insensitive to the strength of selection, but depend crucially on the extent of dispersal between niches, with a threshold of ~5% if population sizes in two niches are equal. At higher levels of dispersal, ecological differentiation is lost. These results contrast with those of earlier studies and shed light on why parapatric speciation is limited by the extent of gene flow. Our testable model provides a candidate explanation for the rapid speciation rates, diversity of appearance and occurrence of “species flocks” observed among some African cichlids and neotropical birds and may also have implications for the occurrence of punctuational change on phylogenies.     

Refining the conditions for sympatric ecological speciation

Can speciation occur in a single population when different types of resources are available, in the absence of any geographical isolation, or any spatial or temporal variation in selection? The controversial topics of sympatric speciation and ecological speciation have already stimulated many theoretical studies, most of them agreeing on the fact that mechanisms generating disruptive selection, some level of assortment, and enough heterogeneity in the available resources, are critical for sympatric speciation to occur. Few studies, however, have combined the three factors and investigated their interactions. In this article, I analytically derive conditions for sympatric speciation in a general model where the distribution of resources can be uni‐ or bimodal, and where a parameter controls the range of resources that an individual can exploit. This approach bridges the gap between models of a unimodal continuum of resources and Levene‐type models with discrete resources. I then test these conditions against simulation results from a recently published article (Thibert‐Plante & Hendry, 2011, J. Evol. Biol. 24 : 2186–2196) and confirm that sympatric ecological speciation is favoured when (i) selection is disruptive (i.e. individuals with an intermediate trait are at a local fitness minimum), (ii) resources are differentiated enough and (iii) mating is assortative. I also discuss the role of mating preference functions and the need (or lack thereof) for bimodality in resource distributions for diversification.     

Factors influencing progress toward sympatric speciation

Many factors could influence progress towards sympatric speciation. Some of the potentially important ones include competition, mate choice and the degree to which alternative sympatric environments (resources) are discrete. What is not well understood is the relative importance of these different factors, as well as interactions among them. We use an individual-based numerical model to investigate the possibilities. Mate choice was modelled as the degree to which male foraging traits influence female mate choice. Competition was modelled as the degree to which individuals with different phenotypes compete for portions of the resource distribution. Discreteness of the environment was modelled as the degree of bimodality of the underlying resource distribution. We find that strong mate choice was necessary, but not sufficient, to cause sympatric speciation. In addition, sympatric speciation was most likely when the resource distribution was strongly bimodal and when competition among different phenotypes was intermediate. Even under these ideal conditions, however, sympatric speciation occurred only a fraction of the time. Sympatric speciation owing to competition on unimodal resource distributions was also possible, but much less common. In all cases, stochasticity played an important role in determining progress towards sympatric speciation, as evidenced by variation in outcomes among replicate simulations for a given set of parameter values. Overall, we conclude that the nature of competition is much less important for sympatric speciation than is the nature of mate choice and the underlying resource distribution. We argue that an increased understanding of the promoters and inhibitors of sympatric speciation is best achieved through models that simultaneously evaluate multiple potential factors.     

PERSPECTIVE: MODELS OF SPECIATION: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED IN 40 YEARS?

Theoretical studies of speciation have been dominated by numerical simulations aiming to demonstrate that speciation in a certain scenario may occur. What is needed now is a shift in focus to identifying more general rules and patterns in the dynamics of speciation. The crucial step in achieving this goal is the development of simple and general dynamical models that can be studied not only numerically but analytically as well. I review some of the existing analytical results on speciation. I first show why the classical theories of speciation by peak shifts across adaptive valleys driven by random genetic drift run into trouble (and into what kind of trouble). Then I describe the Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller (BDM) model of speciation that does not require overcoming selection. I describe exactly how the probability of speciation, the average waiting time to speciation, and the average duration of speciation depend on the mutation and migration rates, population size, and selection for local adaptation. The BDM model postulates a rather specific genetic architecture of reproductive isolation. I then show exactly why the genetic architecture required by the BDM model should be common in general. Next I consider the multilocus generalizations of the BDM model again concentrating on the qualitative characteristics of speciation such as the average waiting time to speciation and the average duration of speciation. Finally, I consider two models of sympatric speciation in which the conditions for sympatric speciation were found analytically. A number of important conclusions have emerged from analytical studies. Unless the population size is small and the adaptive valley is shallow, the waiting time to a stochastic transition between the adaptive peaks is extremely long. However, if transition does happen, it is very quick. Speciation can occur by mutation and random drift alone with no contribution from selection as different populations accumulate incompatible genes. The importance of mutations and drift in speciation is augmented by the general structure of adaptive landscapes. Speciation can be understood as the divergence along nearly neutral networks and holey adaptive landscapes (driven by mutation, drift, and selection for adaptation to a local biotic and/or abiotic environment) accompanied by the accumulation of reproductive isolation as a by-product. The waiting time to speciation driven by mutation and drift is typically very long. Selection for local adaptation (either acting directly on the loci underlying reproductive isolation via their pleiotropic effects or acting indirectly via establishing a genetic barrier to gene flow) can significantly decrease the waiting time to speciation. In the parapatric case the average actual duration of speciation is much shorter than the average waiting time to speciation. Speciation is expected to be triggered by changes in the environment. Once genetic changes underlying speciation start, they go to completion very rapidly. Sympatric speciation is possible if disruptive selection and/or assortativeness in mating are strong enough. Sympatric speciation is promoted if costs of being choosy are small (or absent) and if linkage between the loci experiencing disruptive selection and those controlling assortative mating is strong.     

Multilocus models of sympatric speciation: Bush versus Rice versus Felsenstein

Abstract. In populations of phytophagous insects that use the host plant as a rendezvous for mating, divergence in host preference could lead to sympatric speciation. Speciation requires the elimination of "generalist" genotypes, that is, those with intermediate host preference. This could occur because such genotypes have an inherent fitness disadvantage, or because preference alleles become associated with alleles that are oppositely selected on the two hosts. Although the former mechanism has been shown to be plausible, the latter mechanism has not been studied in detail. I consider a multilocus model (the "Bush model") in which one set of biallelic loci affects host preference, and a second set affects viability on the hosts once chosen. Alleles that increase viability on one host decrease viability on the other, and all loci are assumed to be unlinked. With moderately strong selection on the viability loci, preference alleles rapidly become associated with viability alleles, and the population splits into two reproductively isolated host specialist populations. The conditions for speciation to occur in this model, as measured by the strength of selection required, are somewhat more stringent than in a model in which preference and viability are controlled by the same loci (one-trait model). In contrast, the conditions are much less stringent than in a model in which speciation requires buildup of associations between viability loci and loci controlling a host-independent assortative mating trait (canonical two-trait model). Moreover, in the one-trait model, and to a lesser extent the Bush model, the strength of selection needed to initiate speciation is only slightly greater than that needed to complete it. This indicates that documenting instances of sympatric species that are reproductively isolated only by host or habitat preference would provide evidence for the plausibility of sympatric speciation in nature.     

ALTRUISM IN MENDELIAN POPULATIONS DERIVED FROM SIBLING GROUPS: THE HAYSTACK MODEL REVISITED

A group-selection model is presented in which each group is initiated by a single fertilized female and persists for several generations before dispersal. Maynard Smith (1964) concluded that altruism could not plausibly evolve under these circumstances. I show that his conclusion is an artifact of a simplifying assumption that amounts to a worst-case scenario for group selection. When the standard donor-recipient equations for altruistic behavior are used in Maynard Smith's model, Mendelian populations derived from sibling groups are often more favorable for the evolution of altruism than are the sibling groups themselves. In general, long-term and large-scale aspects of population structure may at times be important in the evolution of altruistic and other group-advantageous behaviors.     

Strong evolutionary equilibrium and the war of attrition

In developing the concept of an evolutionarily stable strategy, Maynard Smith proposed formal conditions for stability. These conditions have since been shown to be neither necessary nor sufficient for evolutionary stability in finite populations. This paper provides a strong stability condition which is sensitive to the population size. It is then demonstrated that in the war of attrition with uncertain rewards there is a unique “strong evolutionary equilibrium” strategy. As the population becomes large this is shown to approach the solution strategy proposed by Bishop, Cannings and Maynard Smith.The analysis is then extended to wars of attrition between different populations. It is concluded that for such contests there is a whole family of potential strong evolutionary equilibria.     

ESS equations sometimes do not specify an ESS

The equations used to find an evolutionarily stable strategy in the basic game theory model (Maynard Smith, 1974, 1982; Maynard Smith & Price, 1973), and in sexual conflict models (Maynard Smith, 1977; Parker, 1979) do not, in fact, specify an ESS when the expected number of contests entered is not the same for each strategy. This means that the conclusions of many game theory models may be incorrect. This is particularly likely to be true when the mean durations of contests for different strategies are not the same, or when the probability that an individual enters a contest is not the same for all strategies. New ESS equations are developed which incorporate the expected number of contests entered.     

A deterministic genetic model for sympatric speciation by sexual selection

A deterministic haploid genetic model confirms and explores in more detail the results of our previous individual-based simulation model for sympatric speciation by sexual selection. With the deterministic model, we are able to elucidate parameter dependence by phase plane analysis. We clarify how and why sympatric speciation by sexual selection can happen in a number of ways: (1) Female preferences for or against particular types of males have different effects. Whereas the former affects how readily speciation is invoked, the latter changes the stability of speciation equilibrium. (2) When there is no cost on male ornamentations, speciation is triggered regardless of initial haplotype frequencies if sufficient female preference is provided. (3) There exists a threshold for female initial frequencies for speciation to be invoked, but male initial frequencies have little effect. (4) A small cost on female mate choice does not cancel speciation, but when large, it greatly reduces the possibility of speciation.     

Coevolution of competing species: ecological character displacement

Character displacement of competing species is studied. A model, originally developed by MacArthur and Levins (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 51 (1964), 1207-1210) and further analyzed by Lawlor and Maynard Smith (Amer. Nat. 110 (1976), 70-99), has been reanalyzed. In the present paper, a more formally correct analysis of the MacArthur-Levins model is provided. A standard population genetics approach to sexually reproducing populations is adopted. The same conclusion as proposed by Lawlor and Maynard Smith emerges; competition can lead only to character divergence. In our analysis we either require that allopatrically evolved consumer populations must be able to coexist at an ecologically stable equilibrium (hence, we require mutual invasibility), or consider the feasibility of allopatric equilibria.     

Sympatric speciation: when is it possible?

This paper is written to compare the results of theoretical investigations of sympatric speciation with the relevant experimental data. We understand sympatric speciation as a formation of species out of a population whose spatial structure is not important genetically. A necessary prerequisite for speciation is an action of disruptive selection on sufficiently polymorphic traits. The present analysis confirms the view that such a selection is ecologically realistic. The genetical part of speciation begins with a development of reproductive isolation between those individuals that are opposed in some characters. It is shown that selection for reproductive isolation may be quite strong. Extinction of intermediate individuals, which completes speciation, proceeds under a wide range of conditions, including those when the newly formed species differ in quantitative characters, though most of the genes arc likely to remain the same in both species. The whole process seems possible if differences in several (up to 10) loci are sufficient to adapt the forming species to different niches and to establish reproductive isolation. It is shown that populations with bimodal distributions of some genetically determined quantitative characters can have a considerable life-time. Such distributions may be formed either as a transition stage of sympatric speciation or represent a stationary state under conditions close to those necessary to complete speciation. They are very important for experimental investigations. Sympatric speciation always follows the same principal course; it does not contradict the idea of a genome coadaptedness. The occurrence of sympatric speciation is different for different taxa depending rather on how frequently populations are subjected to the appropriate kind of selection than on their ability to obey it.     

THE RATE TEST OF SPECIATION: ESTIMATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF NON‐ALLOPATRIC SPECIATION FROM REPRODUCTIVE ISOLATION RATES IN DROSOPHILA

Among the most debated subjects in speciation is the question of its mode. Although allopatric (geographical) speciation is assumed the null model, the importance of parapatric and sympatric speciation is extremely difficult to assess and remains controversial. Here I develop a novel approach to distinguish these modes of speciation by studying the evolution of reproductive isolation (RI) among taxa. I focus on the Drosophila genus, for which measures of RI are known. First, I incorporate RI into age‐range correlations. Plots show that almost all cases of weak RI are between allopatric taxa whereas sympatric taxa have strong RI. This either implies that most reproductive isolation (RI) was initiated in allopatry or that RI evolves too rapidly in sympatry to be captured at incipient stages. To distinguish between these explanations, I develop a new “rate test of speciation” that estimates the likelihood of non‐allopatric speciation given the distribution of RI rates in allopatry versus sympatry. Most sympatric taxa were found to have likely initiated RI in allopatry. However, two putative candidate species pairs for non‐allopatric speciation were identified (5% of known Drosophila). In total, this study shows how using RI measures can greatly inform us about the geographical mode of speciation in nature.     

Does frequency-dependent selection optimize fitness?

In evolutionary biology, the axiom that natural selection tends ideally to maximize inclusive fitness of the individual or some other suitable quantity is often advanced (Cody, 1974; Maynard Smith, 1978; Krebs & McCleery, 1984; Houston et al., 1988). Moreover, the evolutionists generally distinguish two situations (Dawkins, 1980; Maynard Smith, 1982): one in which fitness is independent of the frequency of the phenotypes present in the population (frequency-independent selection), and one in which it does depend on this frequency (frequency-dependent selection). This led some authors such as Parker (1984), and more recently Parker & Maynard Smith (1990), to consider "a 2-speed optimization": frequency-independent selection should lead to a "simple optimum" at the end of the selective process, since all the individuals should have the same strategy and the mean fitness of the population should be maximized; frequency-dependent selection, formulated in terms of the theory of games, should lead to a "competitive optimum" even though the "evolutionary stable strategy" (or "ESS"; Maynard Smith & Price, 1973) characterizing the equilibrium "is not the strategy that maximizes fitness in a population sense" (Parker & Maynard Smith, 1990: 30). Our aim in this short communication is to criticize the concept of "competitive optimum" by Parker & Maynard Smith, as well as the general ability of natural selection to "maximize fitness", even in "phenotypic models" (Lloyd, 1977). These models, devoid of genetic constraints since each strategist is assumed to reproduce its own kind, are especially suitable for examining the ideal effect of natural selection.     

Recombination or mutational hot spots in human mtDNA?

Awadalla, Eyre-Walker, and Maynard Smith (1999) recently argued that there might be recombination in human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Their claim was based on their observation of decaying linkage disequilibrium (LD) as a function of physical distance. Their study was much criticized, and follow-up studies have failed to find any evidence for recombination. We argue that the criticisms levied, even if correct, could not possibly explain the findings of Awadalla, Eyre-Walker, and Maynard Smith (1999). Nonetheless, the test proposed by Awadalla, Eyre-Walker, and Maynard Smith (1999 ) is not robust because recombination is not the only explanation for decay of LD. We show that such a pattern can be caused by mutational hot spots as well. However, a closer look at the data suggests that the pattern observed was not caused by mutational hot spots but rather by chance. Thus, there appears to be no evidence for recombination in the mtDNA polymorphism data. In conclusion, we discuss the possibility of detecting recombination in mtDNA and the implications of its existence.     

Case studies and mathematical models of ecological speciation. 2. Palms on an oceanic island

A recent study of a pair of sympatric species of palms on the Lord Howe Island is viewed as providing probably one of the most convincing examples of sympatric speciation to date. Here we describe and study a stochastic, individual-based, explicit genetic model tailored for this palms system. Overall, our results show that relatively rapid (<50,000 generations) colonization of a new ecological niche, and sympatric or parapatric speciation via local adaptation and divergence in flowering periods are theoretically plausible if (i) the number of loci controlling the ecological and flowering period traits is small; (ii) the strength of selection for local adaptation is intermediate; and (iii) an acceleration of flowering by a direct environmental effect associated with the new ecological niche is present. We discuss patterns and time-scales of ecological speciation identified by our model, and we highlight important parameters and features that need to be studied empirically in order to provide information that can be used to improve the biological realism and power of mathematical models of ecological speciation.     

Evidence for sympatric speciation in a Wallacean ancient lake

Sympatric speciation has been demonstrated in few empirical case studies, despite intense searches, because of difficulties in testing the criteria for this mode of speciation. Here, we report a possible case of sympatric speciation in ricefishes of the genus Oryzias on Sulawesi, an island of Wallacea. Three species of Oryzias are known to be endemic to Lake Poso, an ancient tectonic lake in central Sulawesi. Phylogenetic analyses using RAD‐seq‐derived single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) revealed that these species are monophyletic. We also found that the three species are morphologically distinguishable and clearly separated by population‐structure analyses based on the SNPs, suggesting that they are reproductively isolated from each other. A mitochondrial DNA chronogram suggested that their speciation events occurred after formation of the tectonic lake, and existence of a historical allopatric phase was not supported by coalescent‐based demographic inference. Demographic inference also suggested introgressive hybridization from an outgroup population. However, differential admixture among the sympatric species was not supported by any statistical tests. These results all concur with criteria necessary to demonstrate sympatric speciation. Ricefishes in this Wallacean lake provide a promising new model system for the study of sympatric speciation.     

Sympatric speciation by sexual selection: a critical reevaluation

Several empirical studies put forward sexual selection as an important driving force of sympatric speciation. This idea agrees with recent models suggesting that speciation may proceed by means of divergent Fisherian runaway processes within a single population. Notwithstanding this, the models so far have not been able to demonstrate that sympatric speciation can unfold as a fully adaptive process driven by sexual selection alone. Implicitly or explicitly, most models rely on nonselective factors to initiate speciation. In fact, they do not provide a selective explanation for the considerable variation in female preferences required to trigger divergent runaway processes. We argue that such variation can arise by disruptive selection but only when selection on female preferences is frequency dependent. Adaptive speciation is therefore unattainable in traditional female choice models, which assume selection on female preferences to be frequency independent. However, when frequency-dependent sexual selection processes act alongside mate choice, truly adaptive sympatric speciation becomes feasible. Speciation is then initiated independently of nonadaptive processes and does not suffer from the theoretical weaknesses associated with the current Fisherian runaway model of speciation. However, adaptive speciation requires the simultaneous action of multiple mechanisms, and therefore it occurs under conditions far more restrictive than earlier models of sympatric speciation by sexual selection appear to suggest.     

Speciation history of European (Anguilla anguilla) and American eel (A. rostrata), analysed using genomic data

Speciation in the ocean could differ from terrestrial environments due to fewer barriers to gene flow. Hence, sympatric speciation might be common, with American and European eel being candidates for exemplifying this. They show disjunct continental distributions on both sides of the Atlantic, but spawn in overlapping regions of the Sargasso Sea from where juveniles are advected to North American, European and North African coasts. Hybridization and introgression are known to occur, with hybrids almost exclusively observed in Iceland. Different speciation scenarios have been suggested, involving either vicariance or sympatric ecological speciation. Using RAD sequencing and whole‐genome sequencing data from parental species and F1 hybrids, we analysed speciation history based on the joint allele frequency spectrum (JAFS) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) plots. JAFS supported a model involving a split without gene flow 150,000–160,000 generations ago, followed by secondary contact 87,000–92,000 generations ago, with 64% of the genome experiencing restricted gene flow. This supports vicariance rather than sympatric speciation, likely associated with Pleistocene glaciation cycles and ocean current changes. Whole‐genome PSMC analysis of F1 hybrids from Iceland suggested divergence 200,000 generations ago and indicated subsequent gene flow rather than strict isolation. Finally, simulations showed that results from both approaches (JAFS and PSMC) were congruent. Hence, there is strong evidence against sympatric speciation in North Atlantic eels. These results reiterate the need for careful consideration of cases of possible sympatric speciation, as even in seemingly barrier‐free oceanic environments palaeoceanographic factors may have promoted vicariance and allopatric speciation.