A conspectus of the Cladocera of the subterranean waters of the world

A synthesis of current knowledge of the Cladocera living in non-surface waters is provided. For all 94 species and subspecies recorded (Dec. 1994) we give information on their ranges, ecological characteristics, and a review of literature data. We also give a historic survey of the development of concepts, identify categories among groundwater-dwelling species, and discuss their adaptations and the evolutionary lines present. Of the estimated total of c. 450 non-marine Cladocera of the world, c. 20% may occur in underground aquatic habitats, but true groundwater forms (stygobionts or stygobites) are relatively few, possibly not more than 10 species (c. 2.5% of the total). This number may increase, as attention is given to subterranean habitats outside Europe.     

Exceptionally poor land snail fauna of central Yakutia (NE Russia): climatic and habitat determinants of species richness

There is an ongoing debate on the causes of the latitudinal diversity gradient, but diversity decline towards high latitudes is poorly documented for many invertebrate taxa. Therefore, we sampled land snail assemblages at 79 sites and in various habitat types in central Yakutia, a region with extremely continental, cool and dry climate. We tested whether habitats lacking suitable shelters for winter survival harbour less species than those with vegetation cover that softens climatic extremes. Both local species diversity and regional species diversity were extremely low: 13 species were recorded in total with an average of 1.4 species per site. While the majority of grassland sites were without snails (26 of 34 sites), forest sites supported at least one snail species in most cases (38 of 45 sites). Within grasslands, snail occurrences were associated with a higher herb-layer biomass. Numbers of snail species correlated with the amount of available calcium only in forests, in which species accumulation towards more favourable habitats was possible due to softening of climate harshness. As minute snails are known to be effective passive dispersers and the study area was not glaciated during the last glacial stage, there was certainly enough time for colonization of all favourable habitats. Our results suggest climatically driven limitations of both local and regional land snail diversity in central Yakutia. We conclude that the hypothesis of climate harshness remains the most probable explanation of a sharp drop in land snail diversity in high-latitude areas with cold climate.     

Do Chinese cavefish show intraspecific variability in morphological traits?

Cavefishes represent one of the most bizarre and intriguing life forms inhabiting groundwater environments. One‐third of the known cavefishes worldwide is endemic to China, and almost half of those belongs to a single genus, Sinocyclocheilus (Cypriniformes: Cyprinidae). Analyzing the morphometrics of three Sinocyclocheilus species, we aimed to assess whether variability among conspecific populations exists. We predict that populations inhabiting different subterranean habitats (shallow vs. deep) show divergences in specific morphological traits to better cope with the local ecological conditions. Our results showed that the populations showing bigger eyes and reduced humpback were those occurring close to the cave entrance (habitats with light and high food availability), while specimens with smaller eyes and increased humpback were collected from deeper groundwater areas (habitats laying in darkness with food scarcity). This explorative study paves the way for further researches aiming to collect novel data on Chinese cavefishes and highlights the usefulness of these species in evolutionary studies.     

Latitudinal variation of diversity in European freshwater animals is not concordant across habitat types

Aim   We analysed the variation of species richness in the European freshwater fauna across latitude. In particular, we compared latitudinal patterns in species richness and β-diversity among species adapted to different habitat types.
Location   Europe.
Methods   We compiled data on occurrence for 14,020 animal species across 25 pre-defined biogeographical regions of European freshwaters from the Limnofauna Europaea . Furthermore, we extracted information on the habitat preferences of species. We assigned species to three habitat types: species adapted to groundwater, lotic (running water) and lentic (standing water) habitats. We analysed latitudinal patterns of species richness, the proportion of lentic species and β-diversity.
Results   Only lentic species showed a significant species–area relationship. We found a monotonic decline of species richness with latitude for groundwater and lotic habitats, but a hump-shaped relationship for lentic habitats. The proportion of lentic species increased from southern to northern latitudes. β-Diversity declined from groundwater to lentic habitats and from southern to northern latitudes.
Main conclusions   The differences in the latitudinal variation of species richness among species adapted to different habitat types are in part due to differences in the propensity for dispersal. Since lentic habitats are less persistent than lotic or groundwater habitats, lentic species evolved more efficient strategies for dispersal. The dispersal propensity of lentic species facilitated the recolonization of central Europe after the last glaciation. Overall, we stress the importance of considering the history of regions and lineages as well as the ecological traits of species for understanding patterns of biodiversity.     

The ecology of ostracodes (Ostracoda,Crustacea) in western Mongolia

Aquatic biota in Central Asia witnesses and faces a changing environment. Because ostracodes contribute to both extant and fossil lacustrine diversity, they can be used to track evolution in water quality. Living ostracode communities in a variety of aquatic habitats of western Mongolia were analyzed in relation to environmental and hydrochemical variables of those habitats, based on presence/absence data from net samples. The sampled water bodies represent broad gradients in ionic concentration and composition. Ostracode community composition of springs differed from all other sampled habitats, which was also reflected in CCA analyses. Our data indicated that the ostracode fauna of western Mongolia shows a high response to calcium content, alkalinity, salinity, temperature, nutrients, and altitude. Species composition and diversity seem to be determined by solute evolution dominated by Ca-depletion. In general, this seems to be an important regulator of lacustrine ostracode species composition in several semi-arid regions. Binary logistic regression was used to predict the occurrence of the most common species with a minimal set of environmental variables. The resulting models showed on average low performance, and mainly demonstrated the potential of such modeling to predict the distribution of typical bio-indicator species.     

Selecting from correlated climate variables: a major source of uncertainty for predicting species distributions under climate change

Correlative species distribution models are frequently used to predict species’ range shifts under climate change. However, climate variables often show high collinearity and most statistical approaches require the selection of one among strongly correlated variables. When causal relationships between species presence and climate parameters are unknown, variable selection is often arbitrary, or based on predictive performance under current conditions. While this should only marginally affect current range predictions, future distributions may vary considerably when climate parameters do not change in concert. We investigated this source of uncertainty using four highly correlated climate variables together with a constant set of landscape variables in order to predict current (2010) and future (2050) distributions of four mountain bird species in central Europe. Simulating different parameterization decisions, we generated a) four models including each of the climate variables singly, b) a model taking advantage of all variables simultaneously and c) an un‐weighted average of the predictions of a). We compared model accuracy under current conditions, predicted distributions under four scenarios of climate change, and – for one species – evaluated back‐projections using historical occurrence data. Although current and future variable‐correlations remained constant, and the models’ accuracy under contemporary conditions did not differ, future range predictions varied considerably in all climate change scenarios. Averaged models and models containing all climate variables simultaneously produced intermediate predictions; the latter, however, performed best in back‐projections. This pattern, consistent across different modelling methods, indicates a benefit from including multiple climate predictors in ambiguous situations. Variable selection proved to be an important source of uncertainty for future range predictions, difficult to control using contemporary information. Small, but diverging changes of climate variables, masked by constant overall correlation patterns, can cause substantial differences between future range predictions which need to be accounted for, particularly when outcomes are intended for conservation decisions.     

Indicator plant species selection for monitoring the impact of climate change based on prediction uncertainty

To develop a long-term volunteer-based system for monitoring the impacts of climate change on plant distributions, potential indicator plants and monitoring sites were assessed considering habitat prediction uncertainty. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to project potential habitats for 19 popular edible wild plants in Japan. Prediction uncertainties of SDMs were assessed using three high-performance modeling algorithms and 19 simulated future climate data. SDMs were developed using presence/absence records, four climatic variables, and five non-climatic variables. The results showed that prediction uncertainties for future climate simulations were greater than those from the three different modeling algorithms. Among the 19 edible wild plant species, six had highly accurate SDMs and greater changes in occurrence probabilities between current and future climate conditions. The potential habitats of these six plants under future climate simulations tended to shift northward and upward, with predicted losses in potential southern habitats. These results suggest that these six plants are candidate indicators for long-term biological monitoring of the impacts of climate change. If temperature continuously increases as predicted, natural populations of these plants will decline in Kyushu, Chugoku and Shikoku districts, and in low altitudes of Chubu and Tohoku districts. These results also indicate the importance of occurrence probability and prediction uncertainty of SDMs for selecting target species and site locations for monitoring programs. Sasa kurilensis, a very popular and widespread dominant scrub bamboo in the cool-temperate regions of Japan, was found to be the most effective plant for monitoring.     

Reconstruction of Indian monsoon variability over the past 230,000 years: Planktic foraminiferal evidence from the NW Arabian Sea open-ocean upwelling area

We determined the faunal composition and total number of tests (#/g) of planktic foraminifera (> 125 μm) in core KH00-05 GOA 6 near Oman in order to decipher monsoon-induced variability of oceanographic productivity in the open-ocean upwelling area in the northwest Arabian Sea. The core contains a continuous record of sedimentation over the last 230 kyr, with the age model based on oxygen isotope and accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dates. We focused on species (Globigerina bulloides and Globigerinita glutinata) typical for SW monsoonal upwelling and species typical for NE monsoon conditions (Neogloboquadrina incompta, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Globigerinoides ruber, and Globigerinoides sacculifer). The changes in relative abundance of these monsoonal indicators suggest that the open-ocean upwelling area was dominated by the SW monsoon during interglacial periods, but by the NE monsoon during glacial periods.Increases in total test abundance during glacial periods confirmed that the NE monsoon rather than SW monsoon contributes largely to planktic foraminiferal productivity in this area. We argue that three types of circumstances resulted in high productivity, with nine high productivity events occurring at a 23-kyr frequency. The first type caused high productivity events at 102 and 199 ka (interglacial periods), characterized by the dominance of upwelling species, indicating high productivity during strong SW monsoons, correlated with high July insolation at 45° N. An exceptional high productivity event occurred at 37 ka during interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 3, with contributions from both SW and NE monsoons. The second type of high productivity event occurred at 61, 147, and 175 ka, during glacial periods, characterized by dominance of NE monsoon species, and correlated with low January insolation at 45° N. In addition, a high productivity event at 85 ka (interglacial period) also was induced by enhanced NE monsoons. The last two high productivity events occurred during transitional periods from glacial to interglacial (MIS 6/5.5 and 2/1), were characterized by the replacement of NE monsoon species with upwelling species, and corresponded to abrupt climate warming, suggesting that they are related to both accelerated SW monsoon systems and reduced NE monsoon systems.     

Transoceanic dispersal of terrestrial species by debris rafting

Rare, long-distance dispersal events are a key process in generating and maintaining patterns in biological diversity and species distributions across space and time. The 9.0 magnitude earthquake that struck the eastern coast of Japan in 2011, and the subsequent 38 m high tsunami washed large amounts of shoreline debris into the Pacific Ocean that led to a large-scale biological rafting event carrying nearly 300 marine species to the western shores of North America. Whether oceanic, trans-Pacific dispersal via rafting generates long distance dispersal events for small, flightless, terrestrial species is unknown. By sampling beach debris associated with known hot-spots of tsunami debris along the north and east shores of Graham Island, Haida Gwaii, Canada, I document significantly dissimilar invertebrate communities associated with tide-line beach debris and the occurrence of several putative Japanese species of soil-dwelling mites (Acari: Oribatida). Previous explanations of Haida Gwaii's unique flora and fauna have been attributed to a proximity to the Beringian land bridge and the accumulated evidence of near-offshore glacial refugia during the last glacial period. However, my research also suggests that stochastic, trans-Pacific rafting events contribute to the biodiversity and biogeography of soil communities on the west coast of North America.     

Connecting species’ geographical distributions to environmental variables: range maps versus observed points of occurrence

Connecting the geographical occurrence of a species with underlying environmental variables is fundamental for many analyses of life history evolution and for modeling species distributions for both basic and practical ends. However, raw distributional information comes principally in two forms: points of occurrence (specific geographical coordinates where a species has been observed), and expert-prepared range maps. Each form has potential short-comings: range maps tend to overestimate the true occurrence of a species, whereas occurrence points (because of their frequent non-random spatial distribution) tend to underestimate it. Whereas previous comparisons of the two forms have focused on how they may differ when estimating species richness, less attention has been paid to the extent to which the two forms actually differ in their representation of a species’ environmental associations. We assess such differences using the globally distributed avian order Galliformes (294 species). For each species we overlaid range maps obtained from IUCN and point-of-occurrence data obtained from GBIF on global maps of four climate variables and elevation. Over all species, the median difference in distribution centroids was 234 km, and median values of all five environmental variables were highly correlated, although there were a few species outliers for each variable. We also acquired species’ elevational distribution mid-points (mid-point between minimum and maximum elevational extent) from the literature; median elevations from point occurrences and ranges were consistently lower (median −420 m) than mid-points. We concluded that in most cases occurrence points were likely to produce better estimates of underlying environmental variables than range maps, although differences were often slight. We also concluded that elevational range mid-points were biased high, and that elevation distributions based on either points or range maps provided better estimates.     

Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar

Aim Techniques that predict species potential distributions by combining observed occurrence records with environmental variables show much potential for application across a range of biogeographical analyses. Some of the most promising applications relate to species for which occurrence records are scarce, due to cryptic habits, locally restricted distributions or low sampling effort. However, the minimum sample sizes required to yield useful predictions remain difficult to determine. Here we developed and tested a novel jackknife validation approach to assess the ability to predict species occurrence when fewer than 25 occurrence records are available. Location Madagascar. Methods Models were developed and evaluated for 13 species of secretive leaf‐tailed geckos (Uroplatus spp.) that are endemic to Madagascar, for which available sample sizes range from 4 to 23 occurrence localities (at 1 km² grid resolution). Predictions were based on 20 environmental data layers and were generated using two modelling approaches: a method based on the principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) and a genetic algorithm (GARP). Results We found high success rates and statistical significance in jackknife tests with sample sizes as low as five when the Maxent model was applied. Results for GARP at very low sample sizes (less than c. 10) were less good. When sample sizes were experimentally reduced for those species with the most records, variability among predictions using different combinations of localities demonstrated that models were greatly influenced by exactly which observations were included. Main conclusions We emphasize that models developed using this approach with small sample sizes should be interpreted as identifying regions that have similar environmental conditions to where the species is known to occur, and not as predicting actual limits to the range of a species. The jackknife validation approach proposed here enables assessment of the predictive ability of models built using very small sample sizes, although use of this test with larger sample sizes may lead to overoptimistic estimates of predictive power. Our analyses demonstrate that geographical predictions developed from small numbers of occurrence records may be of great value, for example in targeting field surveys to accelerate the discovery of unknown populations and species.     

Species delimitation and biogeography of two fir species (Abies) in central China: cytoplasmic DNA variation

It remains unclear how speciation history might contribute to species-specific variation and affect species delimitation. We examined concordance between cytoplasmic genetic variation and morphological taxonomy in two fir species, Abies chensiensis and A. fargesii, with overlapping distributions in central China. Range-wide genetic variation was investigated using mitochondrial (mt) and plastid (pt) DNA sequences, which contrast in their rates of gene flow. Four mtDNA haplotypes were recovered and showed no obvious species' bias in terms of relative frequency. In contrast, a high level of ptDNA variation was recorded in both species with 3 common ptDNA haplotypes shared between them and 21 rare ptDNA haplotypes specific to one or other species. We argue that the lack of concordance between morphological and molecular variation between the two fir species most likely reflects extensive ancestral polymorphism sharing for both forms of cytoplasmic DNA variation. It is feasible that a relatively fast mutation rate for ptDNA contributed to the production of many species-specific ptDNA haplotypes, which remained rare due to insufficient time passing for their spread and fixation in either species, despite high levels of intraspecific ptDNA gene flow. Our phylogeographic analyses further suggest that polymorphisms in both organelle genomes most likely originated during and following glacial intervals preceding the last glacial maximum, when species distributions became fragmented into several refugia and then expanded in range across central China.     

Post‐glacial migration lag restricts range filling of plants in the European Alps

Aim To evaluate the effect of post‐glacial migration lags on the current distribution of Alpine plants and the factors responsible for possible range‐filling differences among species. Location Austrian Alps. Methods We used species distribution models to predict environmentally suitable sites for 183 Alpine plants at a fine spatial resolution (100 × 100 m²). We overlaid these predictions with independent mapping data (3′× 5′) and calculated the extent to which species fill their potential ranges at this coarser grain based on several different approaches. Moreover, we correlated range‐filling estimates with the magnitude of improvement of distribution models when using the distance to putative glacial refugia as an additional independent variable. Finally, we compared species‐specific range‐filling estimates with traits related to dispersal capacity and competitive ability of these species as well as with characteristics of their habitats. Results Even under a conservative approach, incomplete range filling appears common, with 46% and 31% of the species studied occurring in less than 75% and 50% of their predicted suitable ranges, respectively. Proximity to glacial refugia generally accounts for a lower percentage of the deviance in species distribution data (0–20%, mean 4%) than environmental variables (9–57%, mean 27%). However, its importance correlates closely and negatively with the calculated range‐filling estimates. Range filling significantly increases with the dispersal capacity of a species' propagules and the breadth of its altitudinal niche. Calcicolous species have lower range filling than silicicolous plants and substrate generalists. Conclusions Our results suggest that the current ranges of many Alpine plants are still shaped by delayed Holocene recolonization of suitable sites. Hence, long‐term migration lags also affect plant distribution in mountainous areas, at least on regional scales. These findings question whether high mountain floras will be able to track the expected rapid, climate change driven shifts in habitat.     

Relative importance of hydrological variables in predicting the habitat suitability of Euryale ferox Salisb.

Aims Aquatic ecosystems are a priority for conservation as they have become rapidly degraded with land-use changes. Predicting the habitat range of an endangered species provides crucial information for biodiversity conservation in such rapidly changing environments. However, the complex network structure of aquatic ecosystems restricts spatial prediction variables and has hitherto limited the use of habitat models to predict species occurrence in aquatic ecosystems. We used the maximum entropy model to evaluate the potential distribution of an endangered aquatic species, Euryale ferox Salisb. We tested the relative influence of (i) climatic variables, (ii) topographic variables, and (iii) hydrological variables derived from remote sensing data to improve the prediction of occurrence of aquatic plant species.Methods We considered the southern part of the Korean Peninsula as the modeling extent for the potential distribution of E. ferox. Occurrence records for E. ferox were collected from the literature and field surveys. We applied maximum entropy modeling using remotely sensed environmental variables and evaluated their relative importance as prediction variables with variation partitioning.Important findings The species distribution model predicted potential habitats of E. ferox that matched the actual distribution well. Floodplain wetlands and shallow reservoirs were the favored habitats of E. ferox. Quantitative loss and fragmentation of wetland habitats appeared to be a major reason for the decrease of E. ferox populations. Our results also imply that hydrological variables (i.e. normalized difference water index) derived from remote sensing data greatly increased model prediction (relative contribution: 10.5–37.0%) in the aquatic ecosystem. However, interspecific competition within a similar niche environment should be considered to increase the accuracy of the distribution model.     

The role of outcrops in the diversity of Patagonian vegetation: Relicts of glacial palaeofloras?

Outcrops around the world enhance biodiversity as they provide heterogeneous environments and varied habitats for species with different requirements than those living in the surroundings, and in this way they increase alpha and beta diversity. We studied the floristic composition of the vegetation of rock outcrops in northwestern Patagonia, Argentina, and compared them to the surrounding matrix of shrubland and steppe. For this we sampled 50 outcrops and 50 matrix plots close to them, identified all the species present, and analyzed their floristic composition with Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA). We also analyzed the floras of the north and south faces of the outcrops. The resulting ordinations were related to geographic gradients of the region. The proportions of alien to native species, different life forms, and phylogenetic groups of the outcrop floras were compared to the matrix with G-tests. Our results showed similar dominant families, life form proportions and percentage of alien species in the outcrops and the surrounding matrix. However, species composition of the outcrops was markedly different. North Patagonian outcrops present several taxa not found in the matrix, especially in their southern, less insolated walls. The previously recorded distribution of most of these exclusive species is found in colder areas further south. Thus, we hypothesize that outcrops could be acting as relicts of cold-adapted glacial paleofloras that were probably more extended during glacial times and retreated south after the last glacial maximum.     

Logistic regression models for predicting occurrence of terrestrial molluscs in southern Sweden – importance of environmental data quality and model complexity

We compared the performance of four logistic regression models of different complexity with different environmental data quality, in predicting the occurrence of 49 terrestrial mollusc species in southern Sweden. Performance of models derived from an explanatory data set was evaluated on a confirmatory data set. The overall predictive success of our models (>80% for the three best model approaches), is as good as in other studies, despite the fact that we had to transform a text database into quantitative habitat variables. Simple models (no variable interactions), with forward selection, and detailed habitat data (from field visits) showed the best overall predictive success (mean=84.8%). From comparisons of model approaches, we conclude that data quality (map‐derived data vs habitat mapping) had a stronger impact than model complexity on model performance. However, most of these models showed relatively low values (mean=0.29) for Kappa (statistic for model evaluation), suggesting that the models need to be improved before they would be applied. Predictive success was strongly associated with species incidence but also Kappa was positively correlated with species incidence in univariate tests. Predictive success for true absences was negatively correlated with predictive success for true presences (R²=0.69) and most models failed to give a good prediction of both categories. Models for species with a high incidence in “Open dry sites” or “Mesic interior forests” had a better performance than expected, suggesting that occurrences of species with preference for “narrow” habitats are most easy to predict. Tree layer variables (openness and species abundance) were included in 48 of the 49 final predictive models, suggesting that these variables were good “indicators” of habitat conditions for ground‐living molluscs. Twenty‐four species models included distance to coast and altitude, and we interpret these associations as partly being related to differences in climate. In the final models, true presences (36.9% correctly classified) were much more difficult to predict than true absences (89.7% correct). Possible explanations might be that important habitat variables (e.g. chemical variables and site history) were not included. On the other hand, all suitable sites would not be expected to be occupied due to dynamics in local extinctions (meta‐population theory).     

Suitable areas for the invasion expansion of Xylocopa bees in South America

The introduction of exotic species into native ecosystems can be a cause for concern when those species are invasive. Invasive species cause ecological problems and have socio-cultural impacts on human health and the economy; for example, invasive bees may negatively impact their introduced ecosystem by spreading diseases or outcompeting native pollinators. Xylocopa spp. bees are diverse and distributed throughout the Neotropics. However, Xylocopa augusti (Lepeletier, 1841) and Xylocopa splendidula (Lepeletier, 1841) are not native to Mediterranean Chile. This study aimed to evaluate the invasive potential of these exotic species and predict the potential macroecological effects of their invasions. We also aimed to pinpoint possible distributions for these species throughout South America. We correlated biogeographic occurrence data with climatic variables for each species to model their potential distribution in both current and future scenarios. The models provide strong evidence that both species are changing their distributions: their ranges are expanding towards western South America, particularly Bolivia, Chile and Peru. We demonstrate an increase in niche overlap between these species and show there are new geographic areas vulnerable to the establishment of these invasive bees under current and future climate conditions. These data suggest that these bees may adapt their geographic distribution as the climate changes and pose a threat to native pollinators in new geographic areas.     

Habitat distribution models for intertidal seaweeds: responses to climatic and non‐climatic drivers

Aim Because intertidal organisms often live close to their physiological tolerance limits, they are potentially sensitive indicators of climate‐driven changes in the environment. The goals of this study were to assess the effect of climatic and non‐climatic factors on the geographical distribution of intertidal macroalgae, and to predict future distributions under different climate‐warming scenarios. Location North‐western Iberian Peninsula, southern Europe. Methods We developed distribution models for six ecologically important intertidal seaweed species. Occurrence and microhabitat data were sampled at 1‐km² resolution and analysed with climate variables measured at larger spatial scales. We used generalized linear models and applied the deviance and Bayesian information criterion to model the relationship between environmental variables and the distribution of each target species. We also used hierarchical partitioning (HP) to identify predictor variables with higher independent explanatory power. Results The distributions of Himanthalia elongata and Bifurcaria bifurcata were correlated with measures of terrestrial and marine climate, although in opposite directions. Model projections under two warming scenarios indicated the extinction of the former at a faster rate in the Cantabrian Sea (northern Spain) than in the Atlantic (west). In contrast, these models predicted an increase in the occurrence of B. bifurcata in both areas. The occurrences of Ascophyllum nodosum and Pelvetia canaliculata, species showing rather static historical distributions, were related to specific non‐climatic environmental conditions and locations, such as the location of sheltered sites. At the southernmost distributional limit, these habitats may present favourable microclimatic conditions or provide refuges from competitors or natural enemies. Model performances for Fucus vesiculosus and F. serratus were similar and poor, but several climatic variables influenced the occurrence of the latter in the HP analyses. Main conclusions The correlation between species distributions and climate was evident for two species, whereas the distributions of the others were associated with non‐climatic predictors. We hypothesize that the distribution of F. serratus responds to diverse combinations of factors in different sections of the north‐west Iberian Peninsula. Our study shows how the response of species distributions to climatic and non‐climatic variables may be complex and vary geographically. Our analyses also highlight the difficulty of making predictions based solely on variation in climatic factors measured at coarse spatial scales.